Monday Musette – Dauphiné Wrap-up, Swiss, and More

1. The 2010 Critérium du Dauphiné concluded yesterday with Slovenain Janez Brajkovic taking Radio Shack’s first big win of the season—and perhaps more importantly, he did it by beating Astana’s Alberto Contador. Although Brajkovic’s been a professional for 5 seasons, he’s only 26-years old—his best years are clearly still ahead of him.  He won the race in textbook fashion: a top-5 prologue followed by a win in the ITT and a successful defense of the leader’s jersey in the mountains. Lance must be proud.

Here’s my question: does Armstrong have cause to worry that his younger teammate might steal his thunder come July? 

2. As for Contador, he’s right on schedule for a successful defense of his Tour title next month.  Some are trying to cast doubt on the Spaniard’s fitness, but I think he’s right where he needs to be in order to peak for the Tour’s second and third weeks.  Better still, his team seems to be rising to the occasion as well.  At times during several of the race’s tougher moments, Contador had two or three teammates with him compared to Brajkovic’s one or two.  With another two or three weeks of good hard training and some time to grow more accustomed to his new TT bike, Contador should be fine in July.

3. While it might be a bit early to say so, I’m starting to think Tejay Van Garderen is the USA’s next great stage race hope—and not in a Tom Danielson kind of way either.  Van Garderen’s proven himself as an amateur in Europe, and finished 2nd in another important French stage race last season, the Tour de l’Avenir.  Van Garderen seems unfazed when racing in a country where just about every GC leader’s jersey is yellow.  With a terrific organization backing him, look for Van Garderen to steadily progress through the ranks—he’ll get his first shot at a Grand Tour in this autumn’s Tour of Spain.

4. Belgian Jurgen Vandenbroeck took a solid 4th-place, making him Belgium’s first legitimate top-10 contender in the Tour de France since…

VDBk rode with a confidence that speaks volumes about his ability to lead his Omega Pharma-Lotto team; on Alpe d’Huez he even attacked—something we haven’t seen from a Belgian grand tour favorite since…

5. As for Rabobank’s Denis Menchov—his Alpe d’Huez performance notwithstanding—I think it’s safe to put him back on the list of favorites for July—unless there’s rain during the Prologue.

6. Other impressive rides were registered by youngsters Romain Sicard, Branislav Samoilau, and Thibault Pinot from Euskaltel, Quick Step, and FDJ, respectively.  None of the three is likely to be riding the Tour this summer, but their performances bode well for the future.

7. It’s too bad that Heinrich Haussler and Edvald Boasson Hagen had to wait until Sunday to win their first major races of the season—it’s good to have them back.

8. In other news, it’s looking like the organizers of the Tour de Suisse gave Fabian Cancellara quite a gift in creating this year’s parcours.  Today’s Stage 3 was effectively the only “summit” finish of the weeklong Tour—if you consider a 2-kilometer climb with an 11% grade climb to the finish.  The event’s Queen Stage is Thursday’s Stage 6, a 213-kilometer slugfest featuring one first category and two hors categorie ascents.  But don’t get your hopes up—the stage finishes after about 15 kilometers of descending following the HC climb of the Albulapass.  The stage will test Cancellara’s climbing legs, but with the strongest team in the race and a long-ish ITT on the final day, it might be hard for the competition to deny him another win in his home tour.

That said, my pick for the overall title—Tony Martin—just took the leader’s jersey today.  If he can gain more time between now and Sunday’s ITT, he’s the one rider capable of limiting his losses enough to unseat Cancellara from his throne. 

9. In terms of the Tour de France, several men bear watching in Switzerland this week.  For instance, Stage 1 gave us our latest chance to see if Lance Armstrong is ready to challenge the favorites at this year’s Tour.  If Saturday’s 7.6 kilometer ITT is any indicator, the answer is “no”.  Lance finished 44th—almost half a minute down.  Even Andy Schleck beat him.

And yes, there’s a difference between saying Contador’s defeat is nothing to get worked-up about while stating that Armstrong’s is cause for concern.  Contador is at about 90% of his top fitness, I reckon—the difference might have been enough for him to win the Dauphiné’s long ITT or perhaps drop the rest on Alpe d’Huez.  Had Armstrong finished a few seconds off the pace Saturday, we would consider him on-track for the Tour as well.  But he didn’t.  No matter how you slice it, losing 29 seconds over 7.6 kilometers is just not something we have come to expect from a Tour contender at this point in the season—especially one known for his time trialing.  In Lance’s defense, there was rain, and several other favorites recorded poor times including David Zabriskie, Luis Leon Sanchez, and Christian Vande Velde.

10. Last but not least, what do you make of today’s announcement of the teams invited to the Vuelta?  Is Radio Shack starting to feel the fallout from Landisgate?  And what does Vacansoleil have to do to earn an invitation to a grand tour?

11. In closing, I’ll leave you with this.  (Warning: it’s graphic.)  Thoughts?

Have a great day—and share your comments below.  What did you take away from the Dauphiné?  What do you think about this week’s Tour de Suisse?

Weekend Preview - The Dauphiné and the Tour of Switzerland

The Criterium du Dauphiné wraps-up this weekend with two “legendary” stages in the Alps. Saturday’s the most difficult of the two, taking the riders over 3 categorized climbs—including the hors categorie Col du Glandon—before finishing atop the infamous Alpe-d’Huez. The stage should finalize the top of the general classification. If it doesn’t, Sunday offers an interesting parcours as well, ending with 5 laps in Sallanches—site of the 1980 World Championships and arguably one of the toughest courses in World Championship history. If small gaps remain following Saturday’s slug-fest, look for aggressive action Sunday.
Radio Shack’s Janez Brajkovic sits comfortably atop the GC, with a 1:41 lead over his main rival, Alberto Contador. Denis Menchov and Jurgen Vandenbroeck are riding well at the moment; they lurk dangerously close at 2:55 and 3:06 respectively. While it appears unlikely these two will unseat the men from Radio Shack and Astana, their performances deserve noting in advance of the Tour de France. Other impressive rides have been put in by Tejay Van Garderen—he sits in second-place at 1:15—and Reine Taaramae—he’s in tenth-place at 3:28.

It’s looking like Brajkovic and his team have what it takes to hold Contador at bay—tomorrow’s finale should provide some exciting fireworks as the men within shouting distance take their shots. The day will be a good test for both teams—does Astana have what it takes to win when racing from behind?

Tomorrow also sees the start of the Tour of Switzerland—the other important Tour de France preparation event. If a start list is any indicator, the Tour de Suisse is overwhelmingly the preferred pre-Tour test. Several teams are bringing the bulk of their Tour rosters; only Contador, Menchov, Vandenbroeck, Evans, Basso, Nibali, and Wiggins won’t be taking part. A day longer than the Dauphiné, the TdS seems to have a slightly easier parcours with no major summit finishes and less time trialing than the Dauphiné. That said, this is the Tour of Switzerland we’re talking about—it’s certain to be intensely competitive.

Fabian Cancellara would love to defend his title from last year—doing it while wearing the jersey of Swiss national champion would be an added bonus. Saxo’s bringing the team he needs to do it, with both Schlecks and Jens Voigt lending firepower to the challenge. The TdS will also be our last chance to gauge Lance Armstrong’s fitness prior to the Tour de France. Is he really back on track—or does he still have work to do? We’ll know by next Sunday.

We’ll also get our first opportunity to see Tom Boonen, Mark Cavendish, and Thor Hushovd battle head-to-head this season (at least I think so). Oscar Freire’s coming too—giving us a terrific preview of some of the main contenders for this July’s green jersey.

Personally, I’m eager to see how well Christian Vande Velde has recovered from his crash in the Giro, as well as the extent to which young guns Roman Kreuziger and Robert Gesink will be contenders in next month’s Grand Boucle.

And my pick for the winner? I think Tony Martin takes it with a powerful time trial on the last day. Cancellara will be close, but he’ll have one tough day in the hills, giving Martin the gap he needs to take the win.

What about you? Who are your picks for the weekend’s events? What do you hope the race will reveal in advance of this year’s Tour?

Share your comments below.

Monday Musette - Weekend Racing, Doing the Double, and Transfers

Here’s this week’s Musette—finally on the proper day too!

1. The renamed Criterium du Dauphiné kicked-off yesterday with a 6.8-kilometer Prologue in Evian-les-Bains. Alberto Contador won the event over young American Tejay Van Garderen and Radio Shack’s Janez Brajkovic. While Contador’s win was impressive, he was quick to play it down, bluntly stating he has no intention of defending the jersey.

Contador’s victory was hardly a shock, but several Prologue performances were, including David Millar and Denis Menchov losing 15 and 25 seconds respectively. While Ivan Basso illustrated at this year’s Giro that coming to a grand tour a bit under form can benefit a rider in a tough final week, it’s hard to see Menchov having such luck similar given his shaky track record in le Grand Boucle.

That said, there’s still a lot of racing left. With no true field sprinters and an aggressive parcours, we should see an exciting race for the yellow jersey as more than a few men stand a chance to wrestle it from Contador’s shoulders before the long time trial Wednesday. Stay tuned.

2. The Tour of Luxembourg finished yesterday with Vacansoleil’s Matteo Carrara taking a close win over Frank Schleck. Radio Shack’s Lance Armstrong finished third and promptly declared himself back on track for the Tour. Really Lance? You’ve missed about 10 days of racing, been sick, crashed on your face, and are currently facing the most serious doping accusations of your career. How do 5 days in Luxembourg suddenly put you back on track?

3. Speaking of on-track, HTC-Columbia’s Matthew Goss won yesterday’s TD Bank Philadelphia International Cycling Championship (the TDBPICC, for short). Interestingly, lost in the Cavendish-Greipel feud has been the quiet evolution of Goss into one of the world’s best up-and-coming field sprinters. He took a stage in the Giro last month and now hard-fought win in Philly. Goss should make it easier for HTC to let Greipel go this coming off-season; he gives HTC a second sprinter to bring wins in races Cavendish doesn’t attend. If Greipel can’t keep his mouth shut—which he won’t if he’s left home from the Tour again—look for Goss to get a Vuelta start in his place. Remember, this is an HTC-Columbia team that was rumored to have sat riders at the end of last season after they had reportedly signed deals elsewhere. Just sayin’.

4. It looks like Heinrich Haussler has put his knee troubles behind him. A good friend and I have long maintained a theory that the best homeopathic remedy—for anything—is crashing a car.  Looks like Haussler might agree.

5. I’ll admit I was a bit shocked to read about Ivan Basso’s plans to attempt the Giro/Tour Double. Do you think he can do it? The last one to accomplish the feat was an Italian—Marco Pantani in 1998—but with Kreuziger, Nibali, and Basso in the mix, I can’t help but think Liquigas might have too many cooks and not enough pots to go around.

6. And last but not least, last week showed us all that it’s never too early to start talking about next year, with rumors on several possible transfers hitting the news.

Stijn Devolder seems to be a popular choice for many teams with Radio Shack and Vacansoleil looking to be the most likely destinations for the Belgian star. I’ve been predicting a Lance-Devolder reunion at the Shack since last summer—does Vacansoleil really have a deal made or is Devolder’s agent just trying to raise Radio Shack’s offer? And if Devolder does indeed land with the Dutch team, what does that mean for Bjorn Leukemans?

Another report has surfaced claiming Alberto Contador will be joining the Spanish Caisse d’Epargne team next season with a hefty 4-year contract. (Luis Leon Sanchez has to be going crazy by now.) That’s funny considering Caisse d’Epargne has yet to announce a new title sponsor. Will he bring Specialized with him—hard to see that happening as the team’s have been riding Pinnarello’s for as long as I can remember.

And finally, Fabian Cancellara’s rumored to be heading elsewhere too, given the lack of an official announcement from Bjarne Riis. I assume this is yet another ploy; it allows Bjarne Riis to pressure his potential suitors into closing the deal, lest they risk losing Cancellara to someone else.

Which transfer do you expect to make the most headlines over the coming weeks?

Share your comments below!

Monday Musings - Dauphiné Wrap-up, Suisse Begins, and the Dope Show

1. We're in the thick of the Pre-Tour build-up races and this past week's Dauphiné-Libéré didn't disappoint. Let's back our way down the final GC:

--Alejandro Valverde won another Dauphiné thanks to a superb effort on Mont Ventoux. Given his pending absence from the Tour's start list and a possible worldwide ban, one couldn't help but wonder if this might have been Valverde's last hurrah for a year or two. In my opinion, assuming he's not suspended from competition anywhere other than Italy, missing the Tour might just be the best thing for him. Why? Well, having won the Dauphiné in such fashion, Valverde and his entourage can now boast about "what might have been”, without having to face the reality of his inevitable French collapse. At this rate, Valverde and his team should hope for the best regarding a possible worldwide ban, then put all his remaining eggs in the Vuelta/World’s basket later this year.

--Cadel Evans rode yet another consistent race to yet another 2nd place. Does Evans’ style remind anyone else of Jan Ullrich? I might be alone on this one, but I’m just not convinced that Cadel has the stuff to win the Tour, namely, he doesn't have the acceleration to match the pure climbers, and he can’t time trial well enough to put the time he needs into the likes of other GC contenders—namely, Alberto Contador.

--Speaking of Alberto, he could be bluffing, but the Spaniard seems to be on track for another July victory. He was clearly riding within himself throughout the week, seemingly gauging his efforts on those of his rivals. This might not be such a big deal were it not for the fact that he rides for Johan Bruyneel, a director known for the perfect timing his riders’ performances.

--Robert Gesink rode well in the mountains to ultimately finish 4th. His role in the Tour will be interesting considering the presence of Denis Menchov. Actually, Menchov’s might take some pressure off the squirrelly climber, ultimately launching him to what could prove to be the best Dutch GC placing in years.

--Liquigas better start saving it’s money. Vincenzo Nibali rode with the favorites all week—both against the clock and when the race went uphill. In doing so, he’s become Italy’s newest GC-darling. With Roman Kreuzinger well-placed for a repeat-win in the Tour de Suisse, there will be plenty of suitors ready to over-pay for their services in 2010. With Franco Pellizotti coming to France following his 3rd place in the Giro, Liquigas will have—on paper at least—one of the race’s most dynamic line-ups. A Top-5 finish is not out of the realm of possibility for these two in what could turn-out to be the last time they enter a stage race without the pressure of being mentioned with the major favorites.

--David Millar rode himself to a 9th place finish, consistently placing well in both the time trials and the mountains. But hold-on before you start dusting-off your Union Jack—Millar is not a GC contender at the Tour. To me, his Dauphiné showing puts him on track for a transitional stage win, and maybe for a good showing in the Prologue (if he starts early and Cancellara gets a flat or is rained-on). That's it.

--It was heartening to see David Moncoutie and Pierrick Fedrigo win stages in the Alps. They’ll be carrying their nation’s hopes for a stage win in the Tour along with Thomas Voeckler and Sebastien Joly. Look for one of these four to win the French Championship in 2 weeks.

--And finally, how about BMC’s Brent Bookwalter? While his overall placing wasn’t too impressive, he rode at the front all week, and certainly turned some heads at key points in the race. Could a Pro Tour ride be in his future?

--One general thought before moving-on: if you by any chance caught the Versus coverage of yesterday’s stage, you surely saw at least one of the network’s “Can Anything Stop Lance” TDF commercials. Here’s a bigger question: can anything stop Versus from failing to acknowledge the 179 other riders competing in this year’s race? Yes, Lance’s return offers a fascinating sub-plot, but will Evans, Contador, Sastre, and the Schleck’s be reduced to the role of supporting characters in another Lance love-fest? Hopefully, Versus will get it right once the race begins.

2. The Tour de Suisse is under way with the final set of July contenders testing their legs. Roman Kreuzinger and the Schleck brothers have the most to prove, perhaps more so against the clock than in the mountains. All three will need to improve significantly in the time trial in order to have a real hope of challenging the other big favorites. Sunday’s final stage offers a 39km test around Bern. While the overall might be decided by then, it will be interesting to see the times these three can produce. I’m also eager to see the return of Christian Vande Velde as he seeks the last bit of form he’ll need to prove his Tour last year wasn’t a fluke. And don't forget Lars Boom. I'll peg him now for the win in the final TT; anything more than that and someone might make him a non-CX offer he can't refuse. We’ll do our best over the coming days to keep you aware of live streams when available.

3. A new feature went up last week on Rapha's Features page. It's a terrific run-down of what to expect from next month's Etape du Tour finishing atop Mont Ventoux. Regardless of whether you're riding the Etape or not, it's a terrific article with wonderful writing and photography. Read it here.

4. And now some doping! By now you’ve read at least one article about Bernhard Kohl’s L’Equipe interview and the UCI’s bio-diabolical passport program. If you haven’t, you should go here and here.

While I won’t re-hash what’s already been said, I will make one point. Kohl’s assertion that the UCI passport gives riders extra information which enables them to dope more effectively seems to support a contention I’ve held for quite some time: for every 1 dollar/Euro that goes into the research and development of methods to fight doping (in any sport), there are at least 2 dollars/Euro’s going into the research and development of ways to continue to do it without getting caught.

At some point, maybe we should just go back to the days of urine testing for amphetamines and anabolic steroids. Besides, the UCI doesn’t seem to be overly concerned about handling positive tests on a consistent basis anyway, leaving it to the national federations and teams to make the choices that it—the UCI—is too afraid to make on its own.

5. Things that make you go "Hmmm...": Check-out this photo of Cadel Evans climbing Ventoux. I could be wrong, but doesn't that look like a Powertap Computer on his handlebar? Do you see a Powertap rear hub? Would someone like to share how this is possible? I'm sure there's an explanation out there somewhere; I just have yet to read it.

UPDATE from an anonymous reader: "Cadel is using a CycleOps Cervo -- he can swap in and out his PowerTap wheel whenever he likes because of its Ant+ compatibility."

You can read more here.

6. Finally, some scary writing and photography in the "Good Wheels Gone Bad" department for fans of Mavic's R-Sys wheels. Ben Delaney from Velonews writes here about the explosion of his front Mavic R-Sys wheel. (Yes, he was riding it at the time.) Scary stuff indeed.

On that note, enjoy your week!

Dauphiné Final Stage - Live Stream

For live video coverage of today's final stage of the Dauphiné, click here.

Dauphiné Stage 5 - Live Stream of Mont Ventoux Summit Finish

For live video coverage of today's Stage 5 (finishing atop Mont Ventoux) of the Dauphiné, click here.