Tour of Flanders/Ronde Van Vlaanderen Preview

The Tour of Flanders isn’t until Sunday, but it’s already claimed it’s first victim as Filippo Pozzato has been sent home with the flu. By now you’ve read about the changes to the route—the riders face a new sequence of the climbs with the 5 climbs from the Oude Kwaremont to the Taaienberg all crammed into an 18 kilometer stretch (and yes, the Koppenberg’s one of them). As for the weather, the latest report calls for 40-degree temperatures and a 70% chance of rain—not terrible, but not great either.

Even without Pippo Pozzato—he will be missed—there’s a star-studded filed taking the start in Brugge’s main square on Sunday morning, with several riders and teams able to call themselves legitimate contenders for the a victory in the Ronde. Let’s take a look:

5-Stone Favorites

 Photo: Vanwichelen

Tom Boonen won the Tour of Flanders in 2005 and 2006 and were it not for his teammate Stijn Devolder he might have done the same in 2008 and 2009. He comes to this year’s event in what some are calling the best form of his career—anyone who witnessed his ferocious attacks in the Omloop Het Nieuwsblad and E3 Prijs is hard-pressed to disagree. The only knock against Boonen is that he’s not been shy about demonstrating his fitness to the rest of the peloton, something that will certainly make him the most heavily-marked rider in Sunday’s race. As a result, the responsibility to make the race—and quite possibly the glory for winning it—might fall on one of his talented and experienced teammates—if Boonen’s opponents are glued his every move. Opponents will need to be careful though, for by marking Boonen out of the race, they might be marking themselves out as well—just ask Filippo Pozzato about last year.

 Photo: Vanwichelen

For my money, Phillippe Gilbert has the best shot at breaking Quick Step’s impressive record in the Ronde (Patrick Lefevere’s boys have won 4 out of the last 5 editions). One of the most aggressive riders in the peloton, Gilbert’s not afraid to attack and—perhaps more importantly—he’s not afraid of Tom Boonen. Gilbert’s won races with attacks in the last 40 kilometers, the last 20 kilometers, and the last kilometer—he’s truly willing to take his chances whenever he feels the moment is right. And Gilbert possesses one more slight edge: a talented group of teammates devoted entirely to helping him win. With several men within his own team eyeing the win as well, such dedication might be something Boonen wishes he had too.

4.5-Stone Favorites

 Photo: Vanwichelen

Fabian Cancellara impressed everyone with a terrific win in last Saturday’s E3 Prijs Vlaanderen, showing the best and perhaps only way to beat Tom Boonen out of small breakaway: surprise him with a powerful attack within a kilometer or so of the finish line, preferably just before tight corner. That said, while the win was impressive, I still rate Spartacus a slight step below Boonen and Gilbert—for this weekend’s race only. Call me crazy, but I just don’t see Cancellara as explosive of a rider as Boonen and Gilbert on this terrain. He’s incredibly powerful and knows these roads well, but I’m not convinced he’ll prove able to respond to the sharpest attacks. One more question mark for the Swiss Champion: his teammate Matti Breschel would be a favorite in his own right were he riding for another team. Will Breschel prove to be a loyal domestique, or will he play his own card, forsaking his captain? Cancellara’s success depends on the answer.

 Photo: Vanwichelen

Like Cancellara, Juan Antonio Flecha rates a slight notch below the 5-Stone favorites—and for largely the same reason. While Flecha has indeed performed well at Flanders in the past, I think he lacks a bit of that “something extra” possessed by Boonen and Gilbert when it comes to the quick, powerful accelerations that form the basis for many of winning moves in this race. But don’t get me wrong—like Cancellara, Flecha will be present and active in the finale, especially with a team completely dedicated to getting him there in as fresh shape as possible. Flecha’s best chance for a win might come from the fact that people still don’t seem to take him all that seriously. Maybe it’s his history of making bad decisions in big races; maybe it’s because he’s Spanish. Regardless, Flecha always seems overlooked, something he could exploit come Sunday—if his competition makes the same mistake.

4-Stone Favorites

  Photo: Vanwichelen

Whichever rider emerges from BMC’s pre-race meeting as their protected man deserves to be considered a 4-Stone Favorite—most likely either Marcus Burghardt or George Hincapie, although Alessandro Ballan seems to be starting to peak just in time. They’ve all ridden different races in preparation for Flanders with Burghardt riding Dwars and the E3, Hincapie Ghent-Wevelgem, and Ballan a mixture of them all including the 3-Days of DePanne. Flanders will be the first race in which all 3 will ride together—in a race they all might be targeting. If they set clear boundaries early and stick to them as the race develops, BMC could prove to have one of the strongest teams in the race. If they leave it to chance to sort things out though, it could spell disaster for the American squad.

Matti Breschel’s been arguably the most impressive rider of the past ten days, winning Dwars Door Vlaanderen and then flatting while in the winning break in Ghent-Wevelgem—a race in which he was without a doubt the strongest. The biggest knock against Breschel is the presence and current form of his team captain, Fabian Cancellara. To their credit, both riders have said all the right things in the build-up to Sunday. But one can’t help but wonder what will happen should Breschel find himself in a Devolder-like situation with 30-40km left to race.

3-Stone Favorites

Nick Nuyens was looking as if he were on-track to be one of the top favoriets for Sunday—until he crashed 3 times in the E3 Prijs, almost knocking him out of the Ronde entirely. He heads into Sunday sharing leadership with Sebastian Langeveld, a talented young Dutchmen who has steadily shown he’s deserving of a chance to ride for himseld. Regardless, Nuyens is a better rider, knows the race well, and was certain to be the undisputed kopman at Rabobank until his unfortunate E3 hat trick. We’ll have to wait until Sunday to see just how much his injuries have affected him, but if the forced time-off proved to help him more than hurt him—as it sometimes often does—Nuyens could certainly find himself on the podium once more.

 Photo: Vanwichelen

Sergei Ivanov might just be the most dangerous rider in the race now that his teammate Filippo Pozzato has been sent home. Ivanov’s a bit older than most of the favorites, but he’s no slouch—remember when he won last year’s Amstel Gold Race? Ivanov’s been enjoying Flemish classics since his earliest days as a professional—he won the E3 Prijs in 2000 and now lives in the Belgian town of Bekkevort. With a squad eager to prove it deserves to be mentioned among the sport’s better teams, Ivanov’s just the sort of rider to shock us all like Rolf Sorensen did in 1997.

 Photo: Vanwichelen

Sylvain Chavanel and Stijn Devolder are two more riders not to be overlooked—despite their boss’ comments to the contrary. Chavanel appeared to be taking-over Devolder’s spot as the team’s #2 behind Tom Boonen until a rather anonymous string of performance in the important build-up races. As for Devolder, the two-time returning champion has left it all until the last minute, showing nary a glimmer of fitness before this week’s 3-Days of DePanne. That said, if Chavanel gets a chance to go for the win it will likely come from within the strategy of the team—if Devolder gets a chance, it might be by working against it.

Thor Hushovd’s been suffering through a less-than-stellar start to the season. Throw-in the absences of Heinrich Haussler and Andreas Klier and you get a Cervelo team that’s several steps below where it was this time last year. That said, Thor’s a rider capable of holding his own in races of this sort—he essentially did it for years while riding for Credit Agricole. While he might not have the same top-level fitness as some of the other favorites, he’s a threat should he hit the finish as a member of a select group. Better still, the Ronde might just give Thor the last bit of training he needs for another run at Paris-Roubaix. Watch-out for the big Norwegian; he hasn’t had his last word yet.

2-Stone Favorites
Enrico Gasparotto and Maxim Iglinsky have been doing their best all season to prove that Astana has more to it than just Alberto Contador and his entourage. They race aggressively and have demonstrated an ability to ride cohesively in a variety of conditions. Throw-in Andrei Grivko—fresh from a solid ride in DePanne—and you’ve got a talented, aggressive team that few people are taking seriously—all the ingredients for an upset.

Tyler Farrar might be a year or two away from a big win in the classics, but he still deserves mention as a dark horse for a top-5 result—especially if a small group fights-out the win, leaving a larger group to sprint for the remaining placings (like last year). Farrar has an experienced team behind him including Martijn Maaskant and Johan Vansummeren. David Millar’s another teammate who—fresh from his overall win in DePanne—merits some attention. He could play an important role in keeping Farrar out of trouble early in the race, and might just have the legs for a good result of his own.

Manuel Quinziato’s been knocking on the door for a while now, scoring several top-10 results in cobbled classics and semi-classics over the past few years. But he’s 30 now, and will need to score a big win soon if he wants to continue to lead his team in these races. He has a talented supporting cast including sprinter Daniele Bennati, Aleksander Kuschynski, and the increasingly impressive Daniel Oss. If these men can give Quinziato a relatively stress-free ride to the finale, the Italian might just score the best result of his career.

1-Stone Dark Horses

  Photo: Vanwichelen

Several men come into Sunday hoping to play a central role in Vlaanderen’s mooiste. They include three young Dutchmen striving to become their country’s next great hope for the cobbled classics (Tom Veelers, Sebastian Langeveld, and Niki Terpstra), two Frenchmen at the opposite ends of their careers (Frederic Guesdon and Steve Chainel), three men from a team fighting for relevance following the departures of several star players (Marcel Sieberg, Bernhard Eisel, and Matthew Goss), two domestiques eager for a chance to make a name for themselves while helping their captains take the win (Jurgen Roelandts and Carlos Barredo), a former cyclocross World Champion hoping to continue his evolution to a star on the road (Lars Boom), and last but not least, Bjorn Leukemans, a familiar name for Pavé’s veteran readers. Expect to see many of these names in the day’s more important breakaways and possibly one or two of them sneaking into the top-10.

 Photo: Vanwichelen

As for my prediction, I think we might have to wait a week for the big showdown we’ve been expecting. Boonen, Gilbert, and Cancellara could easily mark one another too closely, ultimately choosing to watch one another while their teammates ride to glory. The pressure will fall on Flecha, as the loss of Edvald Boasson Hagen leaves his team without a super-domestique on par with Chavanel, Devolder, Hoste, and Breschel.

Looking into my crystal ball, I see a break forming by the top of the Taaienberg including Devolder, Breschel, Quinziato, Ivanov, Burghardt, Van Avermaet, Boom, and just for fun, Leukemans. With so many major teams represented, the break will stay away, with Breschel taking the biggest win of his career. Burghardt and Ivanov will fill-out the rest of the podium while Quick Step and Omega Pharma-Lotto will be left facing another week of criticism.

And you? Who’s your top favorite for Sunday? Share your comments below.