It wasn’t as explosive as some might have expected or desired, but the action today was certainly revealing. Here’s what we saw:
1. French housewives have a new hearthrob and his name is Brice Feillu. Svelte, handsome, a mountaintop winner in the Pyrennes, and the polka dot jersey to boot! Can you say Ree-chard Virenque? (Now teach your brother to climb; you needed to wait 28 minutes to celebrate with him.) He's also the first neo-pro to win a Tour stage since an American did it in 1993!
2. Italians have their first yellow jersey in nine years. Tifosi everywhere are celebrating. But how long will Nocentini keep it?
3. As for Astana, it’s now clear that they came to the race with perhaps the strongest team ever to take the line in the Tour. Three riders in the lead group, several more able to ride tempo and blow the race apart. We’ve said it once and we’ll say it again: it’s their race to lose.
First of all, we need to credit Lance with being a good teammate. He rode wheels and let Contador fly when the time was right.
But I’m not sure he had a choice. Watching Lance in the last few kilometers, he appears to have lost the killer acceleration that made him so terrific in the mountains. The power is there, but the alacrity with which he could leave his competitors seems to have diminished with age. Of course, I could be wrong. Lance might have been dutifully playing the role of dedicated teammate, confident in knowing that Contador was softening the competition for his own assault on yellow. But I'm not buying it. While Lance is definitely one of the strongest riders in the race, he’s a small step below his old self and his teammate. Podium and a stage? Yes. An 8th title? Nope.
And speaking of Contador, how about his acceleration? He rode clear past Jurgen Van Den Broeck and the moto! In the end, he only gained a handful of seconds, but the ease with which he broke free has to put fear in the hearts of the rest. With such talent and such a team, Contador is now the top favorite for victory.
One last thought before moving-on: are we discounting Levi Leipheimer? He's never struggled to follow the leaders, and he seems to have been given little responsibility to work--yet. Could he quietly ride his way onto the podium? Maybe the Giro was the best thing for him?
4. As for the rest of the lead group, credit Cadel Evans with at least trying to stir the pot. Too bad though, he just doesn’t seem to have it compared to Contador, nor does his team have an answer to Astana (although Van Den Broeck was nice to see at the front). Garmin rode exeptionally well with Wiggins and VDV both riding-in with the favorites. It will be very interesting to see if Wiggo can keep this up as the mountains continue.
Andy Schleck confirmed he's a top contender, but will need to attack as the race progresses. He appears to have an acceleration approaching Contador's; he’ll just need to turn his reactivity into proactivity. Brother Frank finished with him, boding well for the mountains to come.
5. As we suspected, Tony Martin seems to be Columbia’s most talented GC rider. He’s got a good grip on white, and never appeared in difficulty today. Columbia should put Kirchen, Momfort, and Rogers to work for him (he’s the best time trialist of the lot). Then they need to sign him to a long-term contract.
And Liquigas? A mixed bag. Nibali hung-in and now lies at 1:54; Kreuzinger lost a bit at the end and has slipped down to 2:40. To be honest, I thought the opposite would have been the case with Nibali slipping while Kreuziger hung tough. That said, there’s a lot left to race and Liquigas is a strong, but continually underrated team. I still see one of these two finishing on the podium—at least Top-5.
6. Are we missing anyone? Sastre and Menchov both hung-in well, unfortunately that’s not going to get them anywhere in this year’s race. Like so many others, they need to attack. Following wheels won't cut it. Karpets was there for Katusha, but does anyone take him seriously? Don't think so.
What about you? What do you see happening over the next two days? Is Lance conceding leadership or biding his time?
Share your thoughts with the rest of us.
Showing posts with label stage 7. Show all posts
Showing posts with label stage 7. Show all posts
Friday, July 10, 2009
Thursday, July 9, 2009
Tour de France - Stage 7 - Arcalis Preview
Beginning tomorrow, the Tour de France enters the Pyrenees with a mountaintop finish in Arcalis. It’s the first of three Pyrenean stages; but since it’s the only summit finish, it's most likely the most significant.
As we pointed-out earlier in the week, the Pyrenees will provide us with the race’s next big GC shake-up following Tuesday’s TTT. Here’s a run-down of what could or should happen.
Hopefully tomorrow will give us a clearer idea of who will lead Astana. But it’s certainly not a given. While there is already much speculation, for me it will simply come down to whether Armstrong and Contador race aggressively or conservatively. Leipheimer and Kloden will play a role, but I think it’s safe to say they’ll be expected to work for the other two. If these men race aggressively—attacking to seize control of the race for good—expect whichever rider attacks to say he was just softening things up for whichever rider didn’t—especially if the former gains time on the latter. I wasn’t attacking him. I was just setting him up for the win. How was I to have known he wouldn’t drop the others? It’s one of the oldest cop-outs in the book, and we could hear it again tomorrow. Unless…
…Astana takes a more conservative approach. Frankly, that might be the best option at this point. It’s still relatively early in the race, and they have 4 of the 5 best-placed riders on GC. The team could simply sit back and let the other teams bring the racing to them, take turns following accelerations until the lead group is whittled down to a size as small as they feel it can get, and then play it by ear for the stage and the yellow jersey. In short, it’s really not their race to make—at this point. Unless…
...Lance Armstrong decides to take things into his own hands. The Armstrong of old would have used tomorrow as his first chance to kill the will of the competition, most likely by attacking early in the climb, ultimately taking minutes from his rivals in what would later prove to be the last day anyone else would see yellow. The trouble with this plan now lies in the fact that his greatest rivals are his own teammates, and by attacking now would be attacking them as well. Could Armstrong use tomorrow to put his stamp on the Tour and his team? Or will he corral his aspirations for now, letting the dynamics within the race and his team play-out a bit?
As for the rest of the Contenders, tomorrow is their first day to try and take some time back from the Astana-naut. As mentioned, it is still early, and we might see several riders try and gauge their efforts according to how everyone else is going. But while no one wants to show his hand too early, for the Schleck’s, the Liquigas boys, whomever is leading Columbia, and Christian Vande Velde, tomorrow will be a new chance to prove they are still in the picture.
That said, it can also be expected that at least one of these riders will crack—possibly catastrophically. There’s always a shock to the legs during the first day in the high mountains. We might see something of the same tomorrow; my prime candidate is Frank Schleck and possibly Vande Velde. The first big mountain is always a shock to a few.
And finally, we should see some of the Pretenders take a stab at pulling themselves back into the race. Cadel Evans, Carlos Sastre, and Denis Menchov (whose race is all but over after losing more time in Stage 6) won’t have many chances to gain significant chunks of time; tomorrow’s their first opportunity. They won’t have long leashes—especially Evans and Sastre—but look for them to attack early and often. If they choose to ride conservatively, it will be to their GC doom.
That’s it for today. Who are your picks for tomorrow? Will Lance take yellow? Or will Contador regain control of his team? Will the Schleck’s or Liquigas announce themselves as legitimate contenders for the win? Will Evans, Sastre, and Menchov ride themselves into a position to be taken seriously?
Share your comments with the rest of us!
As we pointed-out earlier in the week, the Pyrenees will provide us with the race’s next big GC shake-up following Tuesday’s TTT. Here’s a run-down of what could or should happen.
Hopefully tomorrow will give us a clearer idea of who will lead Astana. But it’s certainly not a given. While there is already much speculation, for me it will simply come down to whether Armstrong and Contador race aggressively or conservatively. Leipheimer and Kloden will play a role, but I think it’s safe to say they’ll be expected to work for the other two. If these men race aggressively—attacking to seize control of the race for good—expect whichever rider attacks to say he was just softening things up for whichever rider didn’t—especially if the former gains time on the latter. I wasn’t attacking him. I was just setting him up for the win. How was I to have known he wouldn’t drop the others? It’s one of the oldest cop-outs in the book, and we could hear it again tomorrow. Unless…
…Astana takes a more conservative approach. Frankly, that might be the best option at this point. It’s still relatively early in the race, and they have 4 of the 5 best-placed riders on GC. The team could simply sit back and let the other teams bring the racing to them, take turns following accelerations until the lead group is whittled down to a size as small as they feel it can get, and then play it by ear for the stage and the yellow jersey. In short, it’s really not their race to make—at this point. Unless…
...Lance Armstrong decides to take things into his own hands. The Armstrong of old would have used tomorrow as his first chance to kill the will of the competition, most likely by attacking early in the climb, ultimately taking minutes from his rivals in what would later prove to be the last day anyone else would see yellow. The trouble with this plan now lies in the fact that his greatest rivals are his own teammates, and by attacking now would be attacking them as well. Could Armstrong use tomorrow to put his stamp on the Tour and his team? Or will he corral his aspirations for now, letting the dynamics within the race and his team play-out a bit?
As for the rest of the Contenders, tomorrow is their first day to try and take some time back from the Astana-naut. As mentioned, it is still early, and we might see several riders try and gauge their efforts according to how everyone else is going. But while no one wants to show his hand too early, for the Schleck’s, the Liquigas boys, whomever is leading Columbia, and Christian Vande Velde, tomorrow will be a new chance to prove they are still in the picture.
That said, it can also be expected that at least one of these riders will crack—possibly catastrophically. There’s always a shock to the legs during the first day in the high mountains. We might see something of the same tomorrow; my prime candidate is Frank Schleck and possibly Vande Velde. The first big mountain is always a shock to a few.
And finally, we should see some of the Pretenders take a stab at pulling themselves back into the race. Cadel Evans, Carlos Sastre, and Denis Menchov (whose race is all but over after losing more time in Stage 6) won’t have many chances to gain significant chunks of time; tomorrow’s their first opportunity. They won’t have long leashes—especially Evans and Sastre—but look for them to attack early and often. If they choose to ride conservatively, it will be to their GC doom.
That’s it for today. Who are your picks for tomorrow? Will Lance take yellow? Or will Contador regain control of his team? Will the Schleck’s or Liquigas announce themselves as legitimate contenders for the win? Will Evans, Sastre, and Menchov ride themselves into a position to be taken seriously?
Share your comments with the rest of us!
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