Monday Musette - End of Season Awards (You Haven't Heard of Yet)

It’s the end of the year, a time for reflection, renewal, relaxation, and—awards. To me, most of the serious ones have already been awarded to deserving recipients. But here are a few that might have been missed:

The “This Contract’s Not Worth the Paper Upon Which It’s Written” Award

Maybe we need to blame EU labor laws for this, but it’s hard to not give this one to Bradley Wiggins. Here’s hoping he’s able to make good on the potential Sky sees in him. If he doesn’t, it could prove to be one of the costliest blunders in the history of transfers.

The “A Promise is a Promise—Until It Isn’t” Award

Specialized shocked everyone this fall, first by signing Alberto Contador to an individual deal then by leaving Quick Step to supply bikes for the entire Astana team. Was a contract broken? No, the agreement between SBC and Quick Step was due to expire anyway. But reading between the lines, one can’t help but sense that Patrick Lefevere felt a bit betrayed by Specialized’s sudden change of heart.

The “Wasted Breath, Wasted Time, and Wasted Blood” Award

This past year, several teams and riders signed agreements with independent doctors to monitor and publish their “health” findings—only to end these agreements later. First it was Lance, then Team Saxo Bank followed suit. Have you ever read The Great Gatsby? Do you remember the part when the narrator, Nick Carraway, tells us “he’s one of the few honest people that [he] has ever known”? It’s an important moment, for Nick is ironically one of the most dishonest characters in the novel. A fact made doubly important due to the fact that he’s the one narrating. The lesson: never trust a person who boasts of his or her own honesty—especially if they take it back soon after.

The “Innovation Most Likely to Actually Innovate” Award

At first, I think we all thought Shimano’s Di2 electronic group would prove to be nothing more than a passing fancy. Skil-Shimano and Rabobank domestiques were the early testers, but that was attributed to nothing more than a result of their sponsor-team relationships. But soon other, more important riders began choosing to use it—including George Hincapie. And now, several of the World’s fastest cyclocross racers are riding it and winning with it—in some pretty adverse conditions. I won’t be fully sold until it wins a major one-day road race, thus proving its reliability in races where one untimely mechanical problem can be most costly (like on the Poggio, at the foot of the Muur, or in the Arenberg Forest). But I think that day is coming—soon.

The “Innovation Least Likely to Actually Innovate” Award

It’s cool, it’s clever, and it might even work. But it’s not likely to gain a serious foothold in the marketplace.

The “Rider of the Year Who Has Not Already Won a ‘Rider of the Year Award’” Award

I’m not sure about you, but I think one of the best sub-plots of this year’s Tour de France was the mini-Renaissance of French cycling. I say “mini” because it will be difficult to fully proclaim France’s return to Tour prominence until they can boast of a true overall contender. That said, Brice Feillu gave it his best shot this year, winning the stage to Arcalis and finishing 25th overall—in his first Tour. Whether or not he has the talent to win the race outright remains to be seen, but he certainly deserves credit for a classy stage win that lifted the hopes of a nation in desperate need of someone to cheer for—all the way to Paris.

The “What Were They Thinking?” Award

When it was first unveiled to the press, I thought AG2R’s new kit might look pretty cool in a retro sort of way. Then I saw it for real.

And finally…

The “Best Blog That Uses European Cycling Jargon in its Title” Award

La Gazzetta Della Bici is a great choice, but it’s already won something. To me, the winner here is a recent addition to my Google reader: El Cyclista. It’s well-designed, offers focused coverage, and doesn’t overwhelm me with kitsch or angst. (A lesson I’m still trying to learn myself.) It deserves your regular visitation.

(Did you really think I’d create an award just for myself? Puh-lease…)

So I guess that’s it for the last Monday Musette of 2009. Who did we leave out? What awards do you have to share with the rest of us?

Would you like me to take a serious stab at identifying some "real" awards for 2009? I’m happy to offer my insights on the season’s important performances if you wouldn’t consider it redundant. If so, what would you like to see recognized?

Please leave your ideas and comments below. Thanks for reading!

Monday Musette - Trek, Track, Wilson, Winter, and...Hipsters?

Here's your Monday Musette:

1. Photos of the The Shack's new Treks have been released.  Your thoughts?  Personally, I find them too busy.  And what's with overabundance of customized, team-specific wheel decals?  On the other hand, Sky's Pinarello's are much more pleasing to my eye. 

2.  Olympic track racing just got boring with the announcement that the IOC is removing the individual pursuit, the points race, and the Madison from the games beginning in 2012.  While I support the IOC's goal to create more gender equity on the track (the 2008 Olympics had 7 events for the men and only 3 for the women), there has to be a better way of achieving it. 

3.  You might have missed it in all the Wiggins hullabaloo, but Matt Wilson signed a deal with Garmin-Transitions that will put him right back where he belongs next season--racing in Europe.  As far as I'm concerned, Wilson for Wiggo is a good trade for Garmin.  Wilson is a consumate professional--positive, helpful, and experienced.  He's ridden all the big races from the classics to the Tour, and will provide a wealth of knowledge and talent to Vaughter's squad--particularly in the cobbled classics and the Tour's flatter stages where he made a name for himself by the side of Baden Cooke.  Am I biased?  Perhaps a bit, but this time next year I bet Wilson will have made more of an impact at Garmin than Wiggins will have made at Sky.

4.  Cycling made the New York Times today, as talks are heating-up between the Giro organizers and Washington D.C.  While it's a logistical nightmare, it's certainly not inconceivable.  US-readers: if it happens, would you make the trip to see it?

5.  Competitive Cyclist deserves the credit for finding this one.  If you've never seen it before--watch it now.



6.  And speaking of things you need to see, add this to the list:



7.  And finally, if you were waiting until the last minute to order some Pavé clothing, now's the time.  The next 10 people to order a jersey and bibs will get a free cap. 

Enjoy your Monday and share your comments below!

Garmin vs. Sky - Wiggins Transfer Analysis

The dust has finally settled—Bradley Wiggins has officially signed with Team Sky. And now that the deal is done, the finality of the transfer has got me thinking: who now has the better team for the Tour de France? Does Sky truly have a core of riders capable of delivering Wiggins to the podium in Paris? And conversely, has Garmin lost its best chance for a high placing? While anything can and will happen between now and July, let’s take a look at how things might shape-up, beginning with Sky’s prospective 9-man Tour team:

Kurt Asle Arvesen surely deserves a spot—he’s a proven Grand Tour stage-winner and provides the experience and veteran savvy necessary for a new team to have success on the sport’s most challenging stage. Michael Barry’s another talented veteran, able to help on tougher days; he’ll provide unwavering service to his teammates. Edvald Boassen Hagen has to be included as well—he’s just too talented to leave at home. He’s a favorite for the Prologue and seems certain to grab a stage at some point. Look for him to be the bright spot for the team should Wiggins fail to deliver. Dario Cioni will get a ride—if he doesn’t ride the Giro. He’ll be a valuable and necessary asset for Wiggins in the mountains and can’t be left home. Simon Gerrans will also warrant a start—he’s another past stage-winner who can also help the team when it matters most. Thomas Lövkvist—if he’s not too miffed about losing his leadership to Wiggo—will also have a chance to prove himself should his captain falter. Maybe Wiggins takes the spotlight allowing Lövkvist to make a surprise of his own? So far then, including Wiggins, that’s 7 riders for 9 spots. Who’s left?

Of the rest of the roster*, I think it will come down to Sylvain Calzati, Juan Antonio Flecha, and Serge Pauwels—a tough choice. Pauwels is a dedicated team rider, someone willing to sacrifice his own chances for the sake of his team (as we all witnessed in this year’s Giro). Calzati and Flecha have both won stages in the Tour though, and would be two more cards for Sky to play from breakaways. I think Pauwels gets one spot (Scott Sunderland likes a good Belgian), and Flecha takes the other (he’s a bit more high-profile than Calzati). That makes nine:

Arvesen
Barry
Boassen Hagen
Cioni
Flecha
Gerrans
Lövkvist
Pauwels
Wiggins

On paper, it’s truly a solid team—a GC contender, former stage winners, veteran leadership, and young talent. Looking over these nine though, do you notice anything? Well, I see 4 riders who might look for stages when they should be looking to help Bradley Wiggins, only 2 riders capable of offering serious help on difficult stages, and 2 riders who’ve never even ridden the Tour before. Does this have the makings of podium spot for Wiggins?

I don’t think so.

Now Garmin. If I’m Jonathan Vaughters, I’m thinking of getting my first Tour stage win with Tyler Farrar. Mark Cavendish is a tough nut to crack, but his team’s diminished by the losses of Hincapie and Burghardt. Garmin bolstered its lead-out train this off-season, adding Robbie Hunter and Johan Vansummeren to the mix. It’s not an indomitable line-up, but it might be just enough to get Farrar over the line first on one or two occasions. So let’s start building Garmin’s Tour team with the following men:

Tyler Farrar
Robbie Hunter
Johan Vansummeren
Julian Dean

That leaves 5 spots. David Millar, Dave Zabriskie, and Christian Vande Velde are givens—barring something unforeseen, there’s no way Vaughters leaves them home, and for good reason. Like we saw at Sky, we’re left with 2 places for 3 riders: Ryder Hesjedal, Daniel Martin, and Tom Danielson.

Hesjedal gets a nod for his ability to support the team on a variety of terrain—as the Aussies used to say: “he’s a driver”. He can wind it up for sprints, or set the pace on climbs. Heck, he showed us in the Vuelta that he can win when the road goes uphill too! Frankly, it’s only a hunch, but I think Vaughters is done with Danielson. Yes, he rode a good Vuelta—for two weeks at least—but he just doesn’t seem to have the fortitude (intestinally and otherwise) necessary to succeed in a 3-week Grand Tour. Vaughters has given Danielson more than one opportunity to prove he has the makings of a Grand Tour contender, and he’s failed every time. Time to look elsewhere for the next Garmin GC surprise. On the other hand, Daniel Martin’s young, talented, and eager to prove himself; Vaughters can’t wait another year to see what he’s capable of. Thus, Martin gets the spot. Vaughters has scored two consecutive top-5 finishes with men previously thought to be incapable of such feats—I wonder what he’ll do with someone from whom we expect results. Here’s the final team:

Dean
Farrar
Hesjedal
Hunter
Martin
Millar
Vande Velde
Vansummeren
Zabriskie

So who’s got the better squad?

As much as I think Wiggins’ attitude stinks, it has to be said that Sky has the more impressive Tour team—on paper. With several riders capable of winning stages, and at least one chance for a good GC result, Sky will come to the race with a terrific chance of performing well. Garmin? There’s certainly potential, but more things will need to fall into place for the wins to start flowing. That said, there’s one advantage for Garmin: less pressure. Sky boasts a star-packed roster, now led by Bradley Wiggins. With the roster they’ve compiled, anything less than 2-3 stages and a Top-5 placing will be a disappointment. Furthermore, Garmin will certainly be racing with a chip on its shoulder—Sky (especially Wiggins) will get no favors from the boys in argyle.

So while some might be tempted to think Sky won the battle, they should be cautioned to remember that the way is not over. In fact, it’s only just begun.

In the end, it adds yet another intriguing sub-plot for a Tour that gets more and more interesting each day.

And it’s not even 2010 yet.

Your thoughts?

*Prospective roster data from Cycling Quotient. If you haven’t bookmarked this site yet, you should.

Bradley Wiggins - Is Garmin Planning a Tea Party of its Own?

So Sky delayed the announcement of it’s final roster today, news that has sent everyone into yet another tizzy of speculation over the future of Bradley Wiggins. Sky’s been a rumored destination for Wiggins since his eye-opening 4th place in this year’s Tour. The problem? He has a year remaining on the contract he signed with Garmin before the 2009 season.

Garmin’s been relatively silent on the matter with both Jonathan Vaughters and Matt White saying little more than “he has one more year on his contract”. After following the situation for quite some time, I have to say that if I were Jonathan Vaughters, I’d let Wiggins go. Here’s why:

1. Money - Releasing Wiggins from his contract will certainly involve some form of a buyout—either by Wiggins, Sky, or some combination of the two. Given the fact that Sky reportedly offered Vincenzo Nibali—a rider who finished the Tour 3 places behind Wiggins—1 million pounds, gives Vaughters an idea of Wiggins' value to the British squad. The math is simple: take the difference between Wiggo’s 4th and Nibali’s 7th in this year’s Tour, add several World and Olympic titles, then multiply by the fact that Wiggins is British. Factor in the perceived exposure Garmin would have received with Wiggins riding for them in next year’s race, and you have a figure that would make the transfer worthwhile—for Garmin, at least.

Does Vaughters have the guts to make the move? I say yes. At first, he seemed to be a bit too loyal as a General Manager when he started, choosing to offer semi-lucrative long-term contracts to former teammates and riders he groomed while working his up through the ranks of the sport. However, Vaughters has shown himself lately to be quite a shrewd businessman, making decisions he might not have made previously. Not renewing the contracts of popular riders like Mike Friedman and possibly Danny Pate was a start; jettisoning long-time wheel sponsor Zipp for Mavic was a stronger indicator of Vaughters’ willingness to do what in the best business interests of his team.

Garmin's reminders in the press of Wiggins’ contractual status serve only to assure us all—and especially the management at Sky—that this is not about Wiggins; it's about his contract, setting the stage for the announcement of what could prove the largest buy-out in the sport’s history.

2. Alberto Contador - Did you find it ironic that Alberto Contador’s trying to negotiate a clause in his “contract” with Astana that frees him from the team should anyone test positive? (No word yet if he’s including himself.) It seems as if Contador desires to ride for a clean team—and he’s making it known publicly. Last week I wondered if one of the reasons Contador has not signed with Garmin is his suspicious past, offering Prentice Steffen as one possible bug in Vaughters' ear warning him of the risks of employing someone like Contador. Could it be that Contador’s using his negotiations with Astana to show Garmin that he’s worthy of a contract with one of the cleanest team in the sport? Absolutely! In the end, his apparent signability, combined with what could be an astronomical influx of money from a Wiggins buy-out, makes it even more plausible that Contador will be wearing orange and blue in the 2010 Tour—and Wiggins won’t.

3. Wiggins’ Attitude - Now things get tricky. It’s never a good idea for a manager—in any sport—to set the precedent that squeaky wheels get the grease. Sending a message to your athletes that all they need to do is whine to get their wishes creates chaos, undermining management’s ability to manage. That said, the fact that Wiggins has made little attempt to hide his desire to leave Garmin for Sky has to factor in Vaughters' plans. Wiggins recently compared winning the Tour to winning the Champions League, saying, “You need to be at Manchester United, but I'm playing at Wigan at the moment.” For American fans, this is the equivalent of saying that to win the World Series you need to be with the New York Yankees instead of the Pittsburgh Pirates. The statement is a clear slam of what Wiggins considers to be Garmin’s ability to deliver him to the top step in Paris.

Why would Vaughters want someone with a potentially cancerous attitude in his team bus? The short answer: he probably doesn’t, which is why most of his public remarks focus on Wiggins’ contractual status as opposed to his value to the team. If Vaughters wanted Wiggins to stay for the good of the team, he’d say so.

And can you blame him? A cycling team is a much more fragile team-environment than a football or baseball team. With only a handful of riders participating in any given race, combined with the pressure-cooker environment of a 3-week Grand Tour, it’s an understatement to say that the possible spread of one rider’s bad attitude is worrisome.

Right now, Vaughters is playing it smart, choosing to treat this as a business decision and not a personal one. Anything else would compromise his standing with his riders and staff.

4. Wiggins’ Ability - I’m sorry to say it, but I just don’t think Wiggins will prove able to live up to the hype. His value to Sky lies more in his nationality than his talent. Do you think they would be making such a push for him had he finished 37th in the Tour? I think not. Yes, he’s won various World and Olympic titles and proven himself to be more than capable against the clock, but victory in the Tour? Seriously?

Wiggins’ Tour result was one of those once-in-a-lifetime rides we see every few years. I’m not saying he can’t finish inside the top-10 again, but I’ll bet that 4th will be the highest result we ever see from him. Remember, by most accounts, this year’s Tour was not incredibly difficult; it favored a consistent rider like Wiggins. I wager that if this year’s Tour would have included 1-2 more summit finishes, this conversation wouldn’t be happening right now—Sky would have made Garmin a fair offer following Wiggo’s 12th place, and his bags would have been packed long ago.

It all comes down to a textbook case of risk vs. reward, where the risk lies with Sky and the reward with Garmin. Vaughters seems to be playing the role of shrewd GM, trying to “sell high” at the peak of Wiggins’ value. Can you imagine the look on Sky’s collective faces should they pay handsomely for Wiggins only to have him finish 11th in a 2010 Tour won by Contador—for Garmin—who was signed with the money the team received for Wiggins? Maybe the exposure Wiggins would receive with home viewing audience makes it worth the risk for Sky. But I'd rather win with a foreign rider than finish lower with someone from home.

In the end, look for a deal to be reached sometime soon, freeing Wiggins to leave Garmin for Sky. Maybe Vaughters and Sky’s management can find somewhere between Boulder and London to seal the deal, somewhere like…Boston?

Here's hoping the Sky doesn't indeed prove to be the limit for Wiggins.

Your thoughts? Share them below.

Monday Musette - Cadel, BMC, Ghent-Wevelgem, and More!

Here's what's on Pavé's mind this Monday:

1. The twitterati were abuzz this past weekend with news of Cadel Evans' transfer to BMC. Twitter's an interesting phenomenon as it allows you to witness the evolution of the news as it broke. First it was revealed that Evans did not re-sign with Silence-Lotto; then came the lists of teams with which he might land including SKY, Garmin, Radio Shack, Astana, and AG2R. Teams soon began taking themselves out of the running--with Garmin making a particular effort to clear its name (maybe to prevent Wiggo from growing more hostile?) from the list--until BMC was finally announced and confirmed as his destination.

It's yet another in a series of bold moves for BMC who--despite my comments a week ago--apparently has aspirations for a Tour invite in 2010. Evans gives them a strong GC-rider and man for the hillier classics. It will be interesting to see how they use him: will he shoot for smaller stage races and the Ardennes classics before heading to the Giro for the win; or will the team earn an early invitation to the Tour, allowing Cadel his traditional build-up to the race he would so dearly love to win? I know I've said it before, but I think Evans (among others) would be well-served by a change in focus; he could easily win Paris-Nice, the Ardennes classics, Romandie, and the Dauphiné if he so desired. A Tour stage win or two would be possible before making another late-season assault on the Vuelta and the fall monuments. Of course, Evans will probably again place his eggs in the Tour's basket again, but maybe BMC can convince him to do otherwise--if they want him to.

2. And while were talking transfers, SKY is announcing its complete roster this Friday. Consequently, we might finally gain some clarity regarding the future of Bradley Wiggins. If he indeed leaves, will Garmin move to have Contador take his place?

3. Following on the heels of news that Gent-Wevelgem has been moved to the Sunday before the Tour of Flanders comes the report that it's being lengthened as well--from 200 to about 250km. And why shouldn't it be longer? It's no longer sandwiched on the Wednesday between Flanders and Roubaix, thus giving the organizers the luxury of adding some distance to attract teams eager to use it as preparation for the following weekend. What remains to be seen is how the teams treat the E3 Prijs--the traditional Flanders testing ground--the day before. We'll have more on this in a future column, but for now, it's some intriguing food for thought.

4. For those that have asked, the final few pieces of Pavé kit are being finalized this week. We'll announce the rest of the designs and ordering information soon. Thanks to all for expressing interest--we're looking forward to the legions of Pavé riders hitting the road next year.

5. And speaking of hitting the road, Fxdwhl took us on another terrific ride through his neighborhood on Saturday. Falling leaves, crisp weather, and some muddy singletrack were the days main courses (along with a pile of dog s--- I just couldn't seem able to avoid). You can see for yourself over at lockring.not.included.

That's it for today. For more reading, feel free to head to Embrocation Cycling Journal for the latest from Pavé as well as terrific pieces from some like-minded souls.

Enjoy your week! And as always, share your comments below.