The dust has finally settled—Bradley Wiggins has officially signed with Team Sky. And now that the deal is done, the finality of the transfer has got me thinking: who now has the better team for the Tour de France? Does Sky truly have a core of riders capable of delivering Wiggins to the podium in Paris? And conversely, has Garmin lost its best chance for a high placing? While anything can and will happen between now and July, let’s take a look at how things might shape-up, beginning with Sky’s prospective 9-man Tour team:
Kurt Asle Arvesen surely deserves a spot—he’s a proven Grand Tour stage-winner and provides the experience and veteran savvy necessary for a new team to have success on the sport’s most challenging stage. Michael Barry’s another talented veteran, able to help on tougher days; he’ll provide unwavering service to his teammates. Edvald Boassen Hagen has to be included as well—he’s just too talented to leave at home. He’s a favorite for the Prologue and seems certain to grab a stage at some point. Look for him to be the bright spot for the team should Wiggins fail to deliver. Dario Cioni will get a ride—if he doesn’t ride the Giro. He’ll be a valuable and necessary asset for Wiggins in the mountains and can’t be left home. Simon Gerrans will also warrant a start—he’s another past stage-winner who can also help the team when it matters most. Thomas Lövkvist—if he’s not too miffed about losing his leadership to Wiggo—will also have a chance to prove himself should his captain falter. Maybe Wiggins takes the spotlight allowing Lövkvist to make a surprise of his own? So far then, including Wiggins, that’s 7 riders for 9 spots. Who’s left?
Of the rest of the roster*, I think it will come down to Sylvain Calzati, Juan Antonio Flecha, and Serge Pauwels—a tough choice. Pauwels is a dedicated team rider, someone willing to sacrifice his own chances for the sake of his team (as we all witnessed in this year’s Giro). Calzati and Flecha have both won stages in the Tour though, and would be two more cards for Sky to play from breakaways. I think Pauwels gets one spot (Scott Sunderland likes a good Belgian), and Flecha takes the other (he’s a bit more high-profile than Calzati). That makes nine:
Arvesen
Barry
Boassen Hagen
Cioni
Flecha
Gerrans
Lövkvist
Pauwels
Wiggins
On paper, it’s truly a solid team—a GC contender, former stage winners, veteran leadership, and young talent. Looking over these nine though, do you notice anything? Well, I see 4 riders who might look for stages when they should be looking to help Bradley Wiggins, only 2 riders capable of offering serious help on difficult stages, and 2 riders who’ve never even ridden the Tour before. Does this have the makings of podium spot for Wiggins?
I don’t think so.
Now Garmin. If I’m Jonathan Vaughters, I’m thinking of getting my first Tour stage win with Tyler Farrar. Mark Cavendish is a tough nut to crack, but his team’s diminished by the losses of Hincapie and Burghardt. Garmin bolstered its lead-out train this off-season, adding Robbie Hunter and Johan Vansummeren to the mix. It’s not an indomitable line-up, but it might be just enough to get Farrar over the line first on one or two occasions. So let’s start building Garmin’s Tour team with the following men:
Tyler Farrar
Robbie Hunter
Johan Vansummeren
Julian Dean
That leaves 5 spots. David Millar, Dave Zabriskie, and Christian Vande Velde are givens—barring something unforeseen, there’s no way Vaughters leaves them home, and for good reason. Like we saw at Sky, we’re left with 2 places for 3 riders: Ryder Hesjedal, Daniel Martin, and Tom Danielson.
Hesjedal gets a nod for his ability to support the team on a variety of terrain—as the Aussies used to say: “he’s a driver”. He can wind it up for sprints, or set the pace on climbs. Heck, he showed us in the Vuelta that he can win when the road goes uphill too! Frankly, it’s only a hunch, but I think Vaughters is done with Danielson. Yes, he rode a good Vuelta—for two weeks at least—but he just doesn’t seem to have the fortitude (intestinally and otherwise) necessary to succeed in a 3-week Grand Tour. Vaughters has given Danielson more than one opportunity to prove he has the makings of a Grand Tour contender, and he’s failed every time. Time to look elsewhere for the next Garmin GC surprise. On the other hand, Daniel Martin’s young, talented, and eager to prove himself; Vaughters can’t wait another year to see what he’s capable of. Thus, Martin gets the spot. Vaughters has scored two consecutive top-5 finishes with men previously thought to be incapable of such feats—I wonder what he’ll do with someone from whom we expect results. Here’s the final team:
Dean
Farrar
Hesjedal
Hunter
Martin
Millar
Vande Velde
Vansummeren
Zabriskie
So who’s got the better squad?
As much as I think Wiggins’ attitude stinks, it has to be said that Sky has the more impressive Tour team—on paper. With several riders capable of winning stages, and at least one chance for a good GC result, Sky will come to the race with a terrific chance of performing well. Garmin? There’s certainly potential, but more things will need to fall into place for the wins to start flowing. That said, there’s one advantage for Garmin: less pressure. Sky boasts a star-packed roster, now led by Bradley Wiggins. With the roster they’ve compiled, anything less than 2-3 stages and a Top-5 placing will be a disappointment. Furthermore, Garmin will certainly be racing with a chip on its shoulder—Sky (especially Wiggins) will get no favors from the boys in argyle.
So while some might be tempted to think Sky won the battle, they should be cautioned to remember that the way is not over. In fact, it’s only just begun.
In the end, it adds yet another intriguing sub-plot for a Tour that gets more and more interesting each day.
And it’s not even 2010 yet.
Your thoughts?
*Prospective roster data from Cycling Quotient. If you haven’t bookmarked this site yet, you should.
Showing posts with label sky. Show all posts
Showing posts with label sky. Show all posts
Friday, December 11, 2009
Friday, November 6, 2009
Bradley Wiggins - Is Garmin Planning a Tea Party of its Own?
So Sky delayed the announcement of it’s final roster today, news that has sent everyone into yet another tizzy of speculation over the future of Bradley Wiggins. Sky’s been a rumored destination for Wiggins since his eye-opening 4th place in this year’s Tour. The problem? He has a year remaining on the contract he signed with Garmin before the 2009 season.
Garmin’s been relatively silent on the matter with both Jonathan Vaughters and Matt White saying little more than “he has one more year on his contract”. After following the situation for quite some time, I have to say that if I were Jonathan Vaughters, I’d let Wiggins go. Here’s why:
1. Money - Releasing Wiggins from his contract will certainly involve some form of a buyout—either by Wiggins, Sky, or some combination of the two. Given the fact that Sky reportedly offered Vincenzo Nibali—a rider who finished the Tour 3 places behind Wiggins—1 million pounds, gives Vaughters an idea of Wiggins' value to the British squad. The math is simple: take the difference between Wiggo’s 4th and Nibali’s 7th in this year’s Tour, add several World and Olympic titles, then multiply by the fact that Wiggins is British. Factor in the perceived exposure Garmin would have received with Wiggins riding for them in next year’s race, and you have a figure that would make the transfer worthwhile—for Garmin, at least.
Does Vaughters have the guts to make the move? I say yes. At first, he seemed to be a bit too loyal as a General Manager when he started, choosing to offer semi-lucrative long-term contracts to former teammates and riders he groomed while working his up through the ranks of the sport. However, Vaughters has shown himself lately to be quite a shrewd businessman, making decisions he might not have made previously. Not renewing the contracts of popular riders like Mike Friedman and possibly Danny Pate was a start; jettisoning long-time wheel sponsor Zipp for Mavic was a stronger indicator of Vaughters’ willingness to do what in the best business interests of his team.
Garmin's reminders in the press of Wiggins’ contractual status serve only to assure us all—and especially the management at Sky—that this is not about Wiggins; it's about his contract, setting the stage for the announcement of what could prove the largest buy-out in the sport’s history.
2. Alberto Contador - Did you find it ironic that Alberto Contador’s trying to negotiate a clause in his “contract” with Astana that frees him from the team should anyone test positive? (No word yet if he’s including himself.) It seems as if Contador desires to ride for a clean team—and he’s making it known publicly. Last week I wondered if one of the reasons Contador has not signed with Garmin is his suspicious past, offering Prentice Steffen as one possible bug in Vaughters' ear warning him of the risks of employing someone like Contador. Could it be that Contador’s using his negotiations with Astana to show Garmin that he’s worthy of a contract with one of the cleanest team in the sport? Absolutely! In the end, his apparent signability, combined with what could be an astronomical influx of money from a Wiggins buy-out, makes it even more plausible that Contador will be wearing orange and blue in the 2010 Tour—and Wiggins won’t.
3. Wiggins’ Attitude - Now things get tricky. It’s never a good idea for a manager—in any sport—to set the precedent that squeaky wheels get the grease. Sending a message to your athletes that all they need to do is whine to get their wishes creates chaos, undermining management’s ability to manage. That said, the fact that Wiggins has made little attempt to hide his desire to leave Garmin for Sky has to factor in Vaughters' plans. Wiggins recently compared winning the Tour to winning the Champions League, saying, “You need to be at Manchester United, but I'm playing at Wigan at the moment.” For American fans, this is the equivalent of saying that to win the World Series you need to be with the New York Yankees instead of the Pittsburgh Pirates. The statement is a clear slam of what Wiggins considers to be Garmin’s ability to deliver him to the top step in Paris.
Why would Vaughters want someone with a potentially cancerous attitude in his team bus? The short answer: he probably doesn’t, which is why most of his public remarks focus on Wiggins’ contractual status as opposed to his value to the team. If Vaughters wanted Wiggins to stay for the good of the team, he’d say so.
And can you blame him? A cycling team is a much more fragile team-environment than a football or baseball team. With only a handful of riders participating in any given race, combined with the pressure-cooker environment of a 3-week Grand Tour, it’s an understatement to say that the possible spread of one rider’s bad attitude is worrisome.
Right now, Vaughters is playing it smart, choosing to treat this as a business decision and not a personal one. Anything else would compromise his standing with his riders and staff.
4. Wiggins’ Ability - I’m sorry to say it, but I just don’t think Wiggins will prove able to live up to the hype. His value to Sky lies more in his nationality than his talent. Do you think they would be making such a push for him had he finished 37th in the Tour? I think not. Yes, he’s won various World and Olympic titles and proven himself to be more than capable against the clock, but victory in the Tour? Seriously?
Wiggins’ Tour result was one of those once-in-a-lifetime rides we see every few years. I’m not saying he can’t finish inside the top-10 again, but I’ll bet that 4th will be the highest result we ever see from him. Remember, by most accounts, this year’s Tour was not incredibly difficult; it favored a consistent rider like Wiggins. I wager that if this year’s Tour would have included 1-2 more summit finishes, this conversation wouldn’t be happening right now—Sky would have made Garmin a fair offer following Wiggo’s 12th place, and his bags would have been packed long ago.
It all comes down to a textbook case of risk vs. reward, where the risk lies with Sky and the reward with Garmin. Vaughters seems to be playing the role of shrewd GM, trying to “sell high” at the peak of Wiggins’ value. Can you imagine the look on Sky’s collective faces should they pay handsomely for Wiggins only to have him finish 11th in a 2010 Tour won by Contador—for Garmin—who was signed with the money the team received for Wiggins? Maybe the exposure Wiggins would receive with home viewing audience makes it worth the risk for Sky. But I'd rather win with a foreign rider than finish lower with someone from home.
In the end, look for a deal to be reached sometime soon, freeing Wiggins to leave Garmin for Sky. Maybe Vaughters and Sky’s management can find somewhere between Boulder and London to seal the deal, somewhere like…Boston?
Here's hoping the Sky doesn't indeed prove to be the limit for Wiggins.
Your thoughts? Share them below.
Garmin’s been relatively silent on the matter with both Jonathan Vaughters and Matt White saying little more than “he has one more year on his contract”. After following the situation for quite some time, I have to say that if I were Jonathan Vaughters, I’d let Wiggins go. Here’s why:
1. Money - Releasing Wiggins from his contract will certainly involve some form of a buyout—either by Wiggins, Sky, or some combination of the two. Given the fact that Sky reportedly offered Vincenzo Nibali—a rider who finished the Tour 3 places behind Wiggins—1 million pounds, gives Vaughters an idea of Wiggins' value to the British squad. The math is simple: take the difference between Wiggo’s 4th and Nibali’s 7th in this year’s Tour, add several World and Olympic titles, then multiply by the fact that Wiggins is British. Factor in the perceived exposure Garmin would have received with Wiggins riding for them in next year’s race, and you have a figure that would make the transfer worthwhile—for Garmin, at least.
Does Vaughters have the guts to make the move? I say yes. At first, he seemed to be a bit too loyal as a General Manager when he started, choosing to offer semi-lucrative long-term contracts to former teammates and riders he groomed while working his up through the ranks of the sport. However, Vaughters has shown himself lately to be quite a shrewd businessman, making decisions he might not have made previously. Not renewing the contracts of popular riders like Mike Friedman and possibly Danny Pate was a start; jettisoning long-time wheel sponsor Zipp for Mavic was a stronger indicator of Vaughters’ willingness to do what in the best business interests of his team.
Garmin's reminders in the press of Wiggins’ contractual status serve only to assure us all—and especially the management at Sky—that this is not about Wiggins; it's about his contract, setting the stage for the announcement of what could prove the largest buy-out in the sport’s history.
2. Alberto Contador - Did you find it ironic that Alberto Contador’s trying to negotiate a clause in his “contract” with Astana that frees him from the team should anyone test positive? (No word yet if he’s including himself.) It seems as if Contador desires to ride for a clean team—and he’s making it known publicly. Last week I wondered if one of the reasons Contador has not signed with Garmin is his suspicious past, offering Prentice Steffen as one possible bug in Vaughters' ear warning him of the risks of employing someone like Contador. Could it be that Contador’s using his negotiations with Astana to show Garmin that he’s worthy of a contract with one of the cleanest team in the sport? Absolutely! In the end, his apparent signability, combined with what could be an astronomical influx of money from a Wiggins buy-out, makes it even more plausible that Contador will be wearing orange and blue in the 2010 Tour—and Wiggins won’t.
3. Wiggins’ Attitude - Now things get tricky. It’s never a good idea for a manager—in any sport—to set the precedent that squeaky wheels get the grease. Sending a message to your athletes that all they need to do is whine to get their wishes creates chaos, undermining management’s ability to manage. That said, the fact that Wiggins has made little attempt to hide his desire to leave Garmin for Sky has to factor in Vaughters' plans. Wiggins recently compared winning the Tour to winning the Champions League, saying, “You need to be at Manchester United, but I'm playing at Wigan at the moment.” For American fans, this is the equivalent of saying that to win the World Series you need to be with the New York Yankees instead of the Pittsburgh Pirates. The statement is a clear slam of what Wiggins considers to be Garmin’s ability to deliver him to the top step in Paris.
Why would Vaughters want someone with a potentially cancerous attitude in his team bus? The short answer: he probably doesn’t, which is why most of his public remarks focus on Wiggins’ contractual status as opposed to his value to the team. If Vaughters wanted Wiggins to stay for the good of the team, he’d say so.
And can you blame him? A cycling team is a much more fragile team-environment than a football or baseball team. With only a handful of riders participating in any given race, combined with the pressure-cooker environment of a 3-week Grand Tour, it’s an understatement to say that the possible spread of one rider’s bad attitude is worrisome.
Right now, Vaughters is playing it smart, choosing to treat this as a business decision and not a personal one. Anything else would compromise his standing with his riders and staff.
4. Wiggins’ Ability - I’m sorry to say it, but I just don’t think Wiggins will prove able to live up to the hype. His value to Sky lies more in his nationality than his talent. Do you think they would be making such a push for him had he finished 37th in the Tour? I think not. Yes, he’s won various World and Olympic titles and proven himself to be more than capable against the clock, but victory in the Tour? Seriously?
Wiggins’ Tour result was one of those once-in-a-lifetime rides we see every few years. I’m not saying he can’t finish inside the top-10 again, but I’ll bet that 4th will be the highest result we ever see from him. Remember, by most accounts, this year’s Tour was not incredibly difficult; it favored a consistent rider like Wiggins. I wager that if this year’s Tour would have included 1-2 more summit finishes, this conversation wouldn’t be happening right now—Sky would have made Garmin a fair offer following Wiggo’s 12th place, and his bags would have been packed long ago.
It all comes down to a textbook case of risk vs. reward, where the risk lies with Sky and the reward with Garmin. Vaughters seems to be playing the role of shrewd GM, trying to “sell high” at the peak of Wiggins’ value. Can you imagine the look on Sky’s collective faces should they pay handsomely for Wiggins only to have him finish 11th in a 2010 Tour won by Contador—for Garmin—who was signed with the money the team received for Wiggins? Maybe the exposure Wiggins would receive with home viewing audience makes it worth the risk for Sky. But I'd rather win with a foreign rider than finish lower with someone from home.
In the end, look for a deal to be reached sometime soon, freeing Wiggins to leave Garmin for Sky. Maybe Vaughters and Sky’s management can find somewhere between Boulder and London to seal the deal, somewhere like…Boston?
Here's hoping the Sky doesn't indeed prove to be the limit for Wiggins.
Your thoughts? Share them below.
Wednesday, September 2, 2009
Transfer Period Opens - Win, Lose, or Draw
I’m no Burt Reynolds or Dom DeLuise, but I know a good game of Win, Lose, or Draw when I see one. Yesterday gave us our first chance to sketch-out some team rosters for 2010. So, let’s pick-up a marker and head to the easel:
First, the Winners:
1. BMC has to be considered the major winner of the 2009 transfer season having assembled a top-notch Classics squad. Alessandro Ballan brings talent and panache along with his palmares; Marcus Burghart is a man for the future (who's already happened to have won several races). George Hincapie comes to provide the experience necessary to guide the rest to victory year-round. Look for Ballan to make the push for Flanders, Burghart for Ghent-Wevelgem, and Hincapie for Roubaix. And don’t forget Karsten Kroon—he’s no slouch either and could bring the team another win a week after Roubaix at the Amstel Gold Race. Overall, it was a pretty impressive haul for Jim Ochowicz and John Lelangue. Now they must hope for the invitations they need to get their riders in the best races. With this roster, it shouldn't be a problem.
2. The next winner is Liquigas, who won simply by staying put. They announced that the bulk of their roster is staying-put, including wunderkinds Vincenzo Nibali and Roman Kreuziger. Even Ivan Basso returns for another year in the green and blue, perhaps spurning an offer to ride with Lance at Radio Shack? Kuchynski and Quinziato remain for the Classics, along with talented domestiques like Willems and Vandborg. And don't forget Franco Pellisotti, he'll be back as well. Sometimes the best moves are the ones not made, I guess.
And now, the Losers:
1. Lampre should be chided for letting Ballan go. For an Italian team, losing homegrown talent has to be considered a disappointment. His replacement? Alessandro Petacchi. Sure, he’ll bring stage wins in the Giro, but he’s getting older, is no stranger to scandal, and he was probably overpaid. What’s Saronni thinking?
2. It was inevitable; Columbia-HTC had to start losing sometime. With so much talent, choices had to be made. Right now, Burghart, Hincapie, and Kirchen are the biggest names to depart, but Edvald Boassen Hagen and Thomas Lokvist are likely to leave as well. Columbia’s re-stocked a bit, signing young talent from around the world as well as up-and-comers like Martin and Peter Velits. But the riders they lose will leave a mark in the win column for sure, especially Hincapie, whose guidance and veteran leadership will be missed in the Classics and the Tour.
These teams get a Draw:
1. Team Sky certainly wants to make a splash, choosing to wait a week or so to announce it’s full roster—maybe to finalize a few more names, perhaps to ensure the spotlight’s all their own. Rumors are swirling as to whom they’ll sign, with Boassen Hagen and Simon Gerrans topping the list. Whenever it happens, it will be exciting to see the final shape of the UK’s first Pro Tour team. Until that time though, judgment must be reserved.
2. Garmin made some noise, signing young talent and some classics help in the form of Johan Vansummeren. That said, I was hoping for more. They need a rider with the talent and experience necessary to help the younger guys start to win bigger races. Vansummeren might bring that, but it’s hard to tell given the role he played at Silence-Lotto. For now they get a draw, but if they don’t start contending in the Monuments soon or hit the podium at the Tour, it could turn-out to be a loss.
3. Radio Shack made a splash from the Tour to now, but let's look at their signings objectively. Clearly, this is a team for Lance. He's surrounded himself with dedicated riders willing to sacrifice their own aspirations for his sake. But honestly, does Lance have the legs left to match his ambition? I think not. Radio Shack will come to the Tour fully loaded, but if Lance can't hang with the other favorites, which rider will pick-up the mantle? Levi? Popo? And what about the Classics? Yes, Geert Steegmans is a talented rider and well-suited to the Northern races, but he's very inconsistent and has never shown the ability to deliver as a protected rider. So for now, The Shack gets a draw, but like Slipstream, time will tell the true merits of its acquisitions.
Otherwise, it was a relatively quiet September 1st.
What about you? Which teams did I miss? Share your thoughts below.
First, the Winners:
1. BMC has to be considered the major winner of the 2009 transfer season having assembled a top-notch Classics squad. Alessandro Ballan brings talent and panache along with his palmares; Marcus Burghart is a man for the future (who's already happened to have won several races). George Hincapie comes to provide the experience necessary to guide the rest to victory year-round. Look for Ballan to make the push for Flanders, Burghart for Ghent-Wevelgem, and Hincapie for Roubaix. And don’t forget Karsten Kroon—he’s no slouch either and could bring the team another win a week after Roubaix at the Amstel Gold Race. Overall, it was a pretty impressive haul for Jim Ochowicz and John Lelangue. Now they must hope for the invitations they need to get their riders in the best races. With this roster, it shouldn't be a problem.
2. The next winner is Liquigas, who won simply by staying put. They announced that the bulk of their roster is staying-put, including wunderkinds Vincenzo Nibali and Roman Kreuziger. Even Ivan Basso returns for another year in the green and blue, perhaps spurning an offer to ride with Lance at Radio Shack? Kuchynski and Quinziato remain for the Classics, along with talented domestiques like Willems and Vandborg. And don't forget Franco Pellisotti, he'll be back as well. Sometimes the best moves are the ones not made, I guess.
And now, the Losers:
1. Lampre should be chided for letting Ballan go. For an Italian team, losing homegrown talent has to be considered a disappointment. His replacement? Alessandro Petacchi. Sure, he’ll bring stage wins in the Giro, but he’s getting older, is no stranger to scandal, and he was probably overpaid. What’s Saronni thinking?
2. It was inevitable; Columbia-HTC had to start losing sometime. With so much talent, choices had to be made. Right now, Burghart, Hincapie, and Kirchen are the biggest names to depart, but Edvald Boassen Hagen and Thomas Lokvist are likely to leave as well. Columbia’s re-stocked a bit, signing young talent from around the world as well as up-and-comers like Martin and Peter Velits. But the riders they lose will leave a mark in the win column for sure, especially Hincapie, whose guidance and veteran leadership will be missed in the Classics and the Tour.
These teams get a Draw:
1. Team Sky certainly wants to make a splash, choosing to wait a week or so to announce it’s full roster—maybe to finalize a few more names, perhaps to ensure the spotlight’s all their own. Rumors are swirling as to whom they’ll sign, with Boassen Hagen and Simon Gerrans topping the list. Whenever it happens, it will be exciting to see the final shape of the UK’s first Pro Tour team. Until that time though, judgment must be reserved.
2. Garmin made some noise, signing young talent and some classics help in the form of Johan Vansummeren. That said, I was hoping for more. They need a rider with the talent and experience necessary to help the younger guys start to win bigger races. Vansummeren might bring that, but it’s hard to tell given the role he played at Silence-Lotto. For now they get a draw, but if they don’t start contending in the Monuments soon or hit the podium at the Tour, it could turn-out to be a loss.
3. Radio Shack made a splash from the Tour to now, but let's look at their signings objectively. Clearly, this is a team for Lance. He's surrounded himself with dedicated riders willing to sacrifice their own aspirations for his sake. But honestly, does Lance have the legs left to match his ambition? I think not. Radio Shack will come to the Tour fully loaded, but if Lance can't hang with the other favorites, which rider will pick-up the mantle? Levi? Popo? And what about the Classics? Yes, Geert Steegmans is a talented rider and well-suited to the Northern races, but he's very inconsistent and has never shown the ability to deliver as a protected rider. So for now, The Shack gets a draw, but like Slipstream, time will tell the true merits of its acquisitions.
Otherwise, it was a relatively quiet September 1st.
What about you? Which teams did I miss? Share your thoughts below.
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