Here's the third installment of Pavé's 2010 Tour de France Preview. I'll wrap things up tomorrow with the final installment, and then present some interesting questions to be answered during this year's Tour on Friday. In case you missed them, here are links to Part 1 and Part 2 of the Preview. As always, share your comments and insights below.
Lampre-Farnese Vini
Damiano Cunego, Alessandro Petacchi, and 5 riders making their Tour debuts is hardly a roster to strike fear into the opposition, but that’s what Lampre brings to this year’s Tour de France. For a team that received almost as much criticism as Footon-Servetto for its inclusion, Lampre doesn’t seem too concerned with proving critics wrong.
After a relatively anonymous spring and a less-than-stellar Giro d’Italia, Cunego needs to do something—and soon—lest he risk losing money on the transfer market this off-season. He showed flashes of brilliance at this year’s Giro; unfortunately his good rides were often followed by rides equally as bad. He comes to this year’s Tour in search of a stage win or two, and perhaps a top-15 finish in the GC. Stick to stage wins, Damiano—start with Stage 2 through the Ardennes.
As for Petacchi, he’s clearly outclassed in anything other than regional Italian races. He won Stage 4 in Switzerland simply by virtue of the fact that he remained upright following a major crash, but that’s hardly an indicator of Tour field sprint success.
As for the rest, there’s always a chance for a stage win from a break or two—Simon Spilak’s a handy opportunist to have around and Grega Bole won a small field sprint in the Dauphiné. If Cunego and Petacchi falter, it’s up to a member of Lampre’s supporting cast to take center stage.
Man of the Hour: Damiano Cunego’s been hunting for a major result since last season when he failed in the spring classics, the Giro, the Tour, Worlds, and the fall classics. Were it not for two wins in the Vuelta, the Italian’s season would have been a complete wash. Time to shine, Damiano—there’s millions waiting for you this off-season if you do.
On the Hot Seat: Giuseppe Saronni has a lot of explaining to do. He lost some of his best riders this past off-season and replaced them with aging stars and unknown rookies. Rumors are already swirling that his last marketable asset—Damiano Cunego—is about to leave as well. With few important wins and a potentially deserted roster, Saronni’s sponsors can’t be happy.
Up-and-Comer: Simon Spilak won this May’s Tour of Romandie following the disqulification of Alejandro Valverde. A young, talented all-rounder, Spilak gets his second Tour start this year. Don’t be surprised if he’s the only Lampre rider to take a win.
Just Happy to Be There: Grega Bole, Mauro Da Dalto, Francesco Gavazzi, Mirco Lorenzetto and Adriano Malori are all making their Tour debuts this summer. Forza, ragazzi!
Feeling Left Out: The entire team in 2011—if they don’t perform in 2010.
Liquigas
In my humble opinion, Liquigas is one of the more intriguing teams in this year’s Tour de France. Ivan Basso won his second Giro d’Italia this May, topping-off one of the most fantastic post-suspension comebacks the sport has ever seen. Basso raced with grinta and determination, never wavering as he clawed back from a several-minute deficit to take the lead just before the final weekend.
Now he comes to the Tour, with aspirations to become the first person since Marco Pantani to win the Giro and the Tour in the same year. Can he do it? I discounted Basso’s chances to win the Giro, considering him too old and far removed from his prime to win a grand tour—he proved me wrong. As for the Tour, while I don’t consider him one of the top 2 or 3 contenders, I will not be surprised to see him take the win—especially if the main favorites make the same mistake I did before the Giro.
Remember, no one thought Pantani would win the Tour in 1998—especially over a seemingly dominant Jan Ullrich. And were you just a little surprised when Carlos Sastre rode away on Alpe d’Huez to take the win in 2008? Anything’s possible.
The biggest thing going for Basso is the layout of this year’s race. Basso rode himself into shape throughout the Giro, peaking during what was an impossibly tough third week. This year’s Tour de
France follows a similar pattern, slowly building week-to-week to a Pyrenean crescendo. Except for Saturday’s Italian championship, Basso hasn’t raced since May—making a steady progression through the Tour even more important—and probable. If he manages to pull it off, Basso’s ride will go down in history as one of the Tour’s most legendary performances.
As for the rest of the squad, don’t discount Roman Kreuziger either—a man with his own Tour aspirations. Kreuziger seems to have dialed-in his preparation this season, laying all of his cards on the table for the Tour. A talented climber and able time trialist, Kreuziger is the most talented of the young men expected to challenge for Tour supremacy throughout the next decade. Should Basso prove fallible, Kreuziger could be the man for Liquigas.
Man of the Hour: Basso. The competition will be fierce, but this might be his last and best chance for yellow.
On the Hot Seat: No one, actually. Liquigas has had a relatively perfect season so far, winning the Giro with several stage wins to boot. A top-5 finish in the Tour along with a stage win or two would be a welcome sight, but for now, Liquigas can ride a pressure-free race—a bad sign for the competition.
Up-and-Comer: Kreuziger’s barely 24 and already he’s finished 13th and 9th in the Tour de France. Should he continue his ascension toward the podium—perhaps even landing on it—look for him to be one of the most sought-after commodities in this off-season’s transfer market.
Just Happy to be There: If you have some time—and can tolerate Google translator—take a trip over Sylvester Szmyd’s blog. It’s casual, thoughtful, and offers a pleasant look into the mind of one of the peloton’s most underrated talents. This won’t be his first Tour—or his last—but Szmyd seems to epitomize someone who’s just happy to be there.
Feeling Left Out: Remember when Daniele Bennati was everyone’s pick to be the next great Italian sprinter? He won two stages in 2007—none since. While he be feeling left out, it’s easy to see why.
Omega Pharma – Lotto
Gone are the days when Lotto came to the Tour with split sprint/GC ambitions. With inconsistent Aussies Robbie McEwen and Cadel Evans elsewhere, and classics men Philippe Gilbert, Leif Hoste, and Greg Van Avermaet staying home, this year’s Lotto squad belongs to one man: Jurgen Van den Broeck.
Who?
Yup, the man I’ve come to call “VDB2” has earned the right to have a full team supporting his chances in this year’s Tour—and he’s done it fair and square. VDB2 first showed his grand tour talents by finishing seventh in the 2008 Giro d’Italia after several strong performances in the mountains. The effort earned the Belgian a spot in last year’s Tour, riding as a lieutenant for Cadel Evans. Evans quickly proved the weaker of the two though, ultimately surrendering his captaincy by the final week of the race. VDB2 would go on finish the Tour 15th overall, a deceiving result considering his earlier sacrifices.
This season, Van den Broeck rode brilliantly in support of Gilbert in the Ardennes classics, covering moves and driving the chase group to essentially hand Gilbert the Amstel Gold Race on a platter. He then finished 4th in the Dauphiné, beaten by two men peaking for the race itself—Janez Brajkovic and Tejay Vangarderen—and the man who is perhaps the best stage racer in the world—Alberto Contador.
If VDB2 has indeed saved his best form for July, a stunning result is possible—maybe even one inside the top-5. Heck, most of Belgium would settle for a top-10, considering it’s been ages since they’ve had a legitimate contender for the Tour’s GC. With a solid team of climbers, rouleurs, and domestiques, there’s nothing to prevent Van den Broeck from making his country proud.
Man of the Hour: Van den Broeck.
On the Hot Seat: Van den Broeck will be if he fails to deliver under such favorable cicumstances. Belgian fans can be so fickle.
Up-and-Comer: Like VDB2, Matt Lloyd is riding his second Tour this year as well. After a stage win and the climber’s jersey at the Giro, his stock is rising.
Just Happy to Be There: Considering how Lotto left just about every other classics rider off the Tour squad, Jurgen Roelandts has to be grateful to have been given a shot at the Tour. Maybe he would have preferred a vacation, but a grand tour might help the youngster’s progression for next year’s classics.
Feeling Left Out: I have a feeling Greg Van Avermaet was hoping for a chance at a stage win in this year’s Tour. One of the more disappointing Belgians of the past two seasons, it was beginning to look in June as if Van Avermaet was—finally—hitting his stride. Looks like he’ll have to be content with another Vuelta.
Quick Step
Quick Step can’t seem to catch a break. Last year Tom Boonen was almost disqualified before the Tour even started thanks to another cocaine offense. He received a last-minute reprieve, but failed to deliver after his team went to great lengths to get him to the line.
Fast forward a year and Boonen has already been ruled-out from racing thanks to the knee injury he received in a crash at the end of Stage 1 of the Tour of California. Even worse, his initial replacement, Giro stage-winner Wouter Weylandt, has been ruled ineligible since we wasn’t on the official 15-rider pre-selection list Quick Step sent to the race organization weeks ago. After all was said and done, the rider finally chosen to take Tom Boonen’s is probably the last rider on the list anyone ever thought would have to ride—Italian Francesco Reda.
Without Boonen, Quick Step closely resembles a French squad with several opportunists hunting for stage wins, a young rider or two hoping for a good GC showing, and a few soon to be washed-up veterans looking for one last chance to shine. Carlos Barredo and Sylvain Chavanel are the cream of the crop. Barredo came close to winning a stage last year before winning the Clasica San Sebastian soon after the Tour ended. Chavanel’s been rather disappointing so far this season—he’s certainly hoping to add another stage win to the one he took in 2008. Frenchman Jérome Pineau won a stage at this year’s Giro; a stage victory in his home tour would be a welcome addition to his résumé.
And that’s about it for Quick Step—not much to get excited about considering this team might have contended for the green jersey had its star been healthy enough to take part.
Man of the Hour: Barredo, Chavanel, and Pineau will take turns trying to take stages. Chavanel might make a go of it as early as Stage 3.
On the Hot Seat: For a Belgian super-team, getting shut-out of the classics is an incredibly worrisome situation. Two stage wins in the Giro were nice, but the team needs some Tour success if it wishes to regain credibility with its fans.
Up-and-Comer: Boonen’s absence might be the best thing for young Kevin Seeldraeyers, the winner of the white jersey as Best Young Rider in last year’s Giro d’Italia. Without the pressure of setting things up for field sprints, Seeldrayers can relax during the first week, doing his best to stay out of trouble. Will the 23-year-old join Jurgen Van den Broeck to form a new generation of Belgian Tour contenders?
Just Happy to Be There: Franceso Reda’s the obvious choice, but how about Eddy Merckx bicycles? Yes, Merckx himself has little to do with the company and the quality is rumored to be not what it once was, but it’s still nice to see the brand back in the Tour.
Feeling Left Out: I’m having a tough time wrapping my head around how and why it happened, but Stijn Devolder will be missed as Belgian national champion. The Tour’s always a better race with more national champions’ jerseys represented, but Devolder’s absence will be particularly missed on the stages through Belgium. At first it seemed as if Devolder was left off by management; then it appeared that Devolder himself had passed on the opportunity. Whatever the reason, it spells the beginning—or maybe the middle actually—of the end for the Belgian’s affiliation with Quick Step.
Rabobank
Denis Menchov, Robert Gesink, and Oscar Freire are the three Rabobank riders we can expect to hear the most from in this Tour de France.
Menchov skipped a chance to defend his title at the Giro this year, choosing instead to focus on adding the only grand tour he has yet to win to his palmares. As far as his chances go, your guesses are as good as mine. A natural grand tour rider, Menchov possesses the rare mix of climbing and time trialing so rarely seen nowadays. When in-shape and confident, he’s one of the best riders in the world. Unfortunately, Menchov’s also prone to crashing, something that makes him a bit suspect in a Tour beginning in Holland and passing over the pavé on its way to France.
Perhaps even more talented—at going uphill at least—than Menchov, Robert Gesink hopes to finally finish the Tour de France after an early exit last year. Like his Russian teammate, Gesink is a rider known for being a bit squirrely at times—a crash being the reason he left last year’s Tour. But a bigger liability for Gesink—as was so spectacularly illustrated at this year’s Tour de Suisse—is his inability to time trial. While Gesink is still young and has plenty of time to improve against the clock, losing a stage race to Frank Schleck in a time trial is certainly cause for concern. Until he fixes the problem, he’ll remain nothing more than a candidate for mountain stage wins, the polka dot jersey, and the lower half of the top-10.
As for Freire, he keeps coming back for more—and winning. After winning a stage and the green jersey in 2008, Freire was shut-out last year. But as he showed with his third win in Milan-San Remo earlier this season, Oscar’s not someone to ignore.
And by the way, Lars Boom could win the Prologue, so put your money down now.
Man of the Hour: Menchov’s wagered the first half of his season on success in France.
On the Hot Seat: This spot could be Menchov’s if he fails to deliver. That said, the man’s won three grand tours; he’s earned a bit of patience.
Up-and-Comer: Gesink’s an easy pick, but he’s been “up and coming” for so long now that it hardly seems fair to keep mentioning him. I’m eager to see what Lars Boom does in his first Tour. He might be a better pick than Gesink for Tour GC success a few years from now—especially since he can actually time trial. In fact, Boom’s a good outside bet to win the Prologue, so put your money down now.
Just Happy to There: There were few surprises in Rabobank’s Tour selection this year. Aside from some last minute crash replacements, everyone’s preparation has more or less gone as planned.
Feeling Left Out: Laurens Ten Dam fell heavily during the Tour de Suisse, suffering several serious injuries to keep him from riding this year’s Tour. A consummate professional and a seemingly fearless rider, Ten Dam’s presence in the mountains—the uphill part of them at least—will be missed by his team and its fans. Get well soon, Laurens!
And that’s it for Part 3 of Pavé’s 2010 Tour de France Preview. Be sure to share your comments and feedback below—and come back tomorrow for the fourth and final part of the series!
Showing posts with label rabobank. Show all posts
Showing posts with label rabobank. Show all posts
Wednesday, June 30, 2010
Wednesday, February 24, 2010
Pavé's 2010 Season Preview - Part 3 (Teams 10-6)
Here’s Part 3 of Pavé’s 2010 Season Preview. Today we take a look at the first half of the Top-10. For at look at Parts 1 and 2, click here and here respectively. We’ll wrap it all tomorrow with a look at what I consider to be the 5 best teams in the sport. As always, thank you for reading and keep those comments coming!
#10 - Katusha
Katusha takes #10 by a hair over Omega Pharma-Lotto, due to the depth of talent on its roster. But talent has never been Katusha’s problem—fulfilling it’s potential has. The signings of Kolobnev, Kirchen, and Rodriguez bolster an already impressive squad, while the healthy return of Robbie McEwen should add wins as well. If this squad performs as impressively as it looks on paper, it will be a very good year for the Russian super-team. We’ll get our first indication of Katusha’s prospects this weekend at the Omloop Het Nieuwsblad.
Remember last spring when everyone spoke about how Filippo Pozzato was a top-favorite to win a classic in 2010? Well, nothing’s changed really, other than the fact that other riders have moved to the front of our consciousness. But Pozzato’s power display last April shouldn’t be forgotten. In Flanders, many consider him to have been the strongest rider in the race, more a victim of Quick Step’s overwhelming depth than anything else. In Roubaix, he was unfortunately on the wrong side of Thor Hushovd’s fall; otherwise we might have seen a different winner in the Roubaix Velodrome.
Now Pozatto enters 2010 as a man on a mission to win one of the monuments of the North—Flanders or Roubaix. He’s won Het Volk and Milan-San Remo; Flanders and/or Roubaix are the logical next steps. The best thing Pozatto has going for him is undisputed team leadership; unlike other favorites he won’t have another contender wearing the same jersey as he does. Yes, this might allow other teams to focus on him, but in the end it must feel nice to know that your biggest competition really comes from your competition and not your own team. Even better, he’ll have Sergei Ivanov at his side once more. Ivanov’s a talented rider in his own right (he won Amstel last year) who knows the roads and will be able to support Pippo into the later phases of these races. In fact, I wouldn’t be surprised to see Pozzato do the Flanders-Roubaix double, as he the skills necessary to excel in both.
In the Ardennes and shorter stage races—like Pais Vasco, for example—look for Katusha’s trio of Kim Kirchen, Alexander Kolobnev, and Joaquin Rodriguez to shine, with perhaps one of them taking an overall victory here and there. Kirchen returns after a difficult 2009; he’ll be eager to return to the form that saw him win Fleche Wallone and ride well in the Tour.
And don’t forget Katusha’s sprinters, Robbie McEwen and Danilo Napolitano. McEwen’s 37-years-old and perhaps a year or two past his best days. Napolitano’s in his prime, but perhaps a rung below the best. Together though, good things could happen if they learn to complement one another’s strengths.
Man of the Hour: Pozzato’s just nearing his prime; expect big things from the talented Italian.
On-the-Hot Seat: Kim Kirchen’s a man on a mission as he attempts to rebound from a terrible 2009. Look for him to excel in short stages races and the Ardennes before tackling the Tour.
Up-and-Comer: Alexander Kolobnev burst onto the scene last year with several top-10 results in races including Liege-Bastogne-Liege, the Amstel Gold Race, the World Championships, and the Tour of Lombardy. Katusha’s hoping he can at least win one of those.
Best Pick-up: Together, Kirchen, Kolobnev, and Rodriguez—if they perform to the level of their expectations—might be the 3 best signings of the off-season for any team. If they perform...
Biggest Loss: Hardly any—unless Geert Steegmans finally wins a big race or two.
#9 – Rabobank
Rabobank’s another risky team to place in the top-10 as their performances often fall far short of their expectations given the level of talent they have on the squad. Rabobank’s success hinges upon the seasons of four men in two major departments: the classics with Lars Boom and Nick Nuyens; and the Grand Tours with Denis Menchov and Robert Gesink.
In the Classics, Nuyens needs a good result to remind us all that he has the talent to be one of the best one-day riders in Belgium. He looked good early last spring, but for some reason never pulled it together. This year he’ll have Lars Boom at his side. The former World Cyclocross Champion’s switch to the road will be one of the more interesting sub-plots of the 2010 spring. He’s found much success in the past on the road with Rabobank; let’s see how he fares on the pavé. If one of these men can win a major race in April, it will be good news for the Orange. If it’s Boom, even better, as the Dutch will finally have a Classics rider to get excited about.
In the Grand Tours, all hopes lie on the inconsistent Denis Menchov and the talented Robert Gesink. Menchov’s inconsistency is his tragic flaw. He followed a fantastic win in the Giro with a forgettable performance in the Tour. It’s interesting to note the lack of respect he seems to be getting both in Holland and abroad considering he’s won 3 Grand Tours. Clearly, all eyes at Rabobank are on Gesink; he’s super talented, particularly when the road goes up. If he can keep the rubber side and not succumb to the pressure of the Tour, he could do quite well. A top-5 result is certainly within his reach. I can’t wait for the Tour’s next rendezvous with Alpe d’Huez as I’m sure Gesink will whip the legions of orange-clad fans into a real frenzy.
Man of the Hour: Some might call him an up-and-comer, but after his fantastic Vuelta last year, Robert Gesink’s the Man of the Hour in the Netherlands.
On the Hot Seat: Denis Menchov needs to have top performances in back-to-back Grand Tours to finally earn the credit he deserves. The question for Menchov this year is whether or not he should return to the Giro to defend his title. I think he should do it. It’s a winnable race for him, and then he can head to the Tour in support of Gesink while taking advantage of an opportunity to ride for himself if one arises.
Up-and-Comer: Lars Boom is turning into a more than respectable road racer—now he gets to take his first stab at the Classics. Along with Gesink, Holland’s future is looking very bright.
Best Pick-up: Rabobank’s a team not known for making waves on the transfer market; the majority of their new talent comes from their in-house Continental team. This year, two riders make the jump, Steven Kruijswijk and Dennis Van Winden.
Biggest Loss: Too bad Rabobank couldn’t retain Tejay Van Garderen; he looks to have the makings of a star.
#8 – Caisse d’Epargne
While some might hate to admit it, the presence of one rider can often elevate a team’s status. As a matter of fact, we’ll see that twice in today’s portion of ranking, beginning here with Alejandro Valverde and Caisse d’Epargne.
Love him or hate him, Valverde is one heck of talented rider, and has to be considered a favorite in just about every race he enters—excluding the Tour of course. Valverde’s already started-off 2010 on a victorious note, taking the overall title in the Med Tour. His next big objectives are Paris-Nice, Catalunya, and Pais Vasco before hitting the Ardennes—all winnable races for him.
Things get tricky for Valverde at the Tour though. The Dauphiné is one of his favorite races; his success there speaks volumes. But as soon as the calendar hits July it’s as if Valverde becomes an entirely different rider: timid, unsure, and prone to mistakes. While I doubt he can do it, if he were to take the mentality and poise he displayed in last year’s Vuelta and combine it with his fitness level from last year’s Dauphiné, a solid Tour result would be likely. I’ll grant him one last Tour try, but if this year goes as poorly as it has in the past, I hope he’ll settle for winning just about everything else.
There’s more talent at Caisse d’Epargne in the form of Luis Leon Sanchez, one of the savviest riders in the peloton. Sanchez can do it all when called upon, making him the most legitimate Tour leader for the Tour in Caisse’s stable. One can only imagine what Sanchez could do if he were free to ride for himself.
Overall, this talented duo faces the difficult task of performing well enough to entice someone to replace Caisse d’Epargne as title sponsor in 2011 and beyond. That’s a tall order in times as tough as these. But if anyone is capable of pulling it off, it’s Valverde—especially if he’s ever allowed back in Italy.
Man of the Hour: Valverde—could there be anyone else?
On the Hot Seat: Eusebio Unzue needs to find a sponsor—and fast. Not only is he looking down the barrel of unemployment, but he’s also competing with Bjarne Riis and Gerry Van Gerwen, two men whose teams have lost title sponsors as well.
Up-and-Comer: It’s hard to call Sanchez an up-and-comer given how long he’s been winning races. But he’s only 26, and still receives surprisingly little credit for his talent. If he raced anywhere but in Spain, he would be one of the most talked-about young riders in the world.
Best Pick-up: I like the additions of Marzio Bruseghin, Christophe Moreau, Juan Mauricio Soler, and Juan-Jose Cobo. Individually, none of them bring much to write home about, but collectively, they provide an instant injection of experience, talent, and strength to Caisse’s Tour squad. If only they had a leader with a proven track record of Tour success.
Biggest Loss: Caisse d’Epargne (the bank) has supported cycling for many years; its departure will be sorely missed—and not only in Spain.
#7 - Astana
Another team that benefits largely from the presence of one man is Astana with Alberto Contador. Like compatriot Alejandro Valverde, Contador is a favorite in any race he enters—particularly if it has at least one summit finish, and one mid-length time trial. Like Valverde, Contador’s already won his first this season, and appears headed to yet another title in the Tour.
When first ordering my teams for this project, I noticed several teams between Astana and Radio Shack. They appear quite similar, yet Astana is much further ahead in the ranking. Why? Because Contador will likely win the Tour and Armstrong will struggle to finish inside the top-10. Regardless of how a team performs in other races, a win in the Tour is an impressive result, and Astana cannot be taken lightly just because it appears one-dimensional.
But is Astana one-dimensional? Not really. Contador’s already won a race and will certainly win others before July. And even though he annoys the heck out of us, Alexandre Vinokourouv should be good for a win or two at some point in the season—maybe he’ll even win the Vuelta. Enrico Gasparotto won several races with Barloworld before falling into a bit of an obscure period; he has talent enough to win a race or two in Italy this season. And there’s Allan Davis as well, although I can’t help but wonder why he has such trouble finding teams willing to acquire his services.
But in the end, while other wins might come in, it’s all about the Tour for Astana. A win, and they’ve justified my high ranking. A loss—or worse—and several of them might be looking for new jobs in 2011.
Man of the Hour: It’s all about Contador and his bid for another Tour title. If he can win again—with the support of a completely re-designed team—he’ll affirm his place as the most talented Tour rider since Lance Armstrong.
On the Hot Seat: I am for ranking Astana 7th. It’s a risky move to put such a scandal-ridden team ahead of teams such as Rabobank, Caisse d’Epargne, and maybe even Radio Shack. Hopefully they’ll win enough races to make me look smart!
Up-and-Comer: Good luck answering this one, as the rest of Astana’s roster is filled with veterans hoping for a new lease on life and Kazakh neo-pros. If they’re lucky, maybe one or two will turn-out to be something worth keeping.
Best Pick-up: Specialized jumped at the chance to win a Tour, jettisoning Quick Step to sign Contador and then the rest of his team. A Tour winner needs more than just the support of the other 8 men in the race and Specialized will do anything to see to it that Contador has the best material in the world.
Biggest Loss: Johan Bruyneel is the best director in the sport. Even though he was in Bruyneel’s doghouse for most of the race, Contador will surely miss his leadership and mid-race tactical decision-making.
#6 – Team Sky
Whether you love them or hate them, Team Sky really has done an impressive job of putting together a deep and talented roster. One might resent teams that come out of nowhere, using deep pockets to cherry-pick talented riders from other more established teams; but look at this way: it’s refreshing to see sponsors still willing to take huge financial risks to back top-level teams. With sponsors like Saxo Bank, Milram, and Caisse d’Epargne falling to the wayside, we should welcome Team Sky, if for no other reason than the fact that they’ve taken the risk at all.
Sky’s biggest signing was one of it’s last as the saga over Bradley Wiggins lasted from the Tour well into the off-season. Wiggins gives Sky what it believes to be a serious Tour contender. I beg to differ. While Wiggins might find some success in the Tour, it can’t be counted-on as his performance last year seemed to come out of nowhere. Wiggins will ride the Giro before the Tour; perhaps we’ll have a better sense then of his prospects.
Sky’s real success will likely come from its other acquisitions—men like Edvald Boassen Hagen, Juan-Antonio Flecha, and Simon Gerrans. Boassen Hagen might be the most talented young rider in the sport right now—he’s a top favorite for the Omloop this weekend and could score big in the Tour of Flanders. Sky will also have one of the strongest teams on the line at Paris-Roubaix—maybe Flecha finally gets his big win. Hagen, Hayman, and yes, Brad Wiggins, will prove to be valuable domestiques on the pavé. In the Ardennes, Gerrans will get his chance to improve on his top-10 finishes before embarking on yet another bid for Grand Tour stage wins.
All in all, it’s a deeply talented squad, with many men capable of taking wins here and there. If I were Sky, I’d take an approach similar to BMC, focusing on the Classics and the Giro, reserving Tour success for the icing on the cake. But I’m not the one writing the checks now, am I?
Man of the Hour: Edvald Boassen Hagen’s on the verge of a major victory (as if Ghent-Wevelgem wasn’t enough). And at 22 years of age, he hasn’t even approached the ceiling of his potential.
On the Hot Seat: Both Wiggins and Flecha have been given chances to lead a team in their targeted races. Can they deliver the goods?
Up-and-Comer: I could try and list another rider, but Boassen Hagen’s the best young rider in the sport—and he’s 22! Incredible.
Biggest Pick-up: The fact that Dave Brailsford was able to pick-up a sponsor willing to foot the bill for such a team is pretty impressive. Without Sky’s support, a roster like this would never be possible.
Biggest Loss: Dignity. Did you see Sky’s skinsuits from Australia? More should be left for the imagination.
And that’s it for Part 3! Thanks so much for reading—I’ve appreciated all the terrific comments and emails. Please recommend us to your friends—and look for us at NAHBS if you plan to attend.
Come back tomorrow for Part 4—who will be #1?
#10 - Katusha
Katusha takes #10 by a hair over Omega Pharma-Lotto, due to the depth of talent on its roster. But talent has never been Katusha’s problem—fulfilling it’s potential has. The signings of Kolobnev, Kirchen, and Rodriguez bolster an already impressive squad, while the healthy return of Robbie McEwen should add wins as well. If this squad performs as impressively as it looks on paper, it will be a very good year for the Russian super-team. We’ll get our first indication of Katusha’s prospects this weekend at the Omloop Het Nieuwsblad.
Remember last spring when everyone spoke about how Filippo Pozzato was a top-favorite to win a classic in 2010? Well, nothing’s changed really, other than the fact that other riders have moved to the front of our consciousness. But Pozzato’s power display last April shouldn’t be forgotten. In Flanders, many consider him to have been the strongest rider in the race, more a victim of Quick Step’s overwhelming depth than anything else. In Roubaix, he was unfortunately on the wrong side of Thor Hushovd’s fall; otherwise we might have seen a different winner in the Roubaix Velodrome.
Now Pozatto enters 2010 as a man on a mission to win one of the monuments of the North—Flanders or Roubaix. He’s won Het Volk and Milan-San Remo; Flanders and/or Roubaix are the logical next steps. The best thing Pozatto has going for him is undisputed team leadership; unlike other favorites he won’t have another contender wearing the same jersey as he does. Yes, this might allow other teams to focus on him, but in the end it must feel nice to know that your biggest competition really comes from your competition and not your own team. Even better, he’ll have Sergei Ivanov at his side once more. Ivanov’s a talented rider in his own right (he won Amstel last year) who knows the roads and will be able to support Pippo into the later phases of these races. In fact, I wouldn’t be surprised to see Pozzato do the Flanders-Roubaix double, as he the skills necessary to excel in both.
In the Ardennes and shorter stage races—like Pais Vasco, for example—look for Katusha’s trio of Kim Kirchen, Alexander Kolobnev, and Joaquin Rodriguez to shine, with perhaps one of them taking an overall victory here and there. Kirchen returns after a difficult 2009; he’ll be eager to return to the form that saw him win Fleche Wallone and ride well in the Tour.
And don’t forget Katusha’s sprinters, Robbie McEwen and Danilo Napolitano. McEwen’s 37-years-old and perhaps a year or two past his best days. Napolitano’s in his prime, but perhaps a rung below the best. Together though, good things could happen if they learn to complement one another’s strengths.
Man of the Hour: Pozzato’s just nearing his prime; expect big things from the talented Italian.
On-the-Hot Seat: Kim Kirchen’s a man on a mission as he attempts to rebound from a terrible 2009. Look for him to excel in short stages races and the Ardennes before tackling the Tour.
Up-and-Comer: Alexander Kolobnev burst onto the scene last year with several top-10 results in races including Liege-Bastogne-Liege, the Amstel Gold Race, the World Championships, and the Tour of Lombardy. Katusha’s hoping he can at least win one of those.
Best Pick-up: Together, Kirchen, Kolobnev, and Rodriguez—if they perform to the level of their expectations—might be the 3 best signings of the off-season for any team. If they perform...
Biggest Loss: Hardly any—unless Geert Steegmans finally wins a big race or two.
#9 – Rabobank
Rabobank’s another risky team to place in the top-10 as their performances often fall far short of their expectations given the level of talent they have on the squad. Rabobank’s success hinges upon the seasons of four men in two major departments: the classics with Lars Boom and Nick Nuyens; and the Grand Tours with Denis Menchov and Robert Gesink.
In the Classics, Nuyens needs a good result to remind us all that he has the talent to be one of the best one-day riders in Belgium. He looked good early last spring, but for some reason never pulled it together. This year he’ll have Lars Boom at his side. The former World Cyclocross Champion’s switch to the road will be one of the more interesting sub-plots of the 2010 spring. He’s found much success in the past on the road with Rabobank; let’s see how he fares on the pavé. If one of these men can win a major race in April, it will be good news for the Orange. If it’s Boom, even better, as the Dutch will finally have a Classics rider to get excited about.
In the Grand Tours, all hopes lie on the inconsistent Denis Menchov and the talented Robert Gesink. Menchov’s inconsistency is his tragic flaw. He followed a fantastic win in the Giro with a forgettable performance in the Tour. It’s interesting to note the lack of respect he seems to be getting both in Holland and abroad considering he’s won 3 Grand Tours. Clearly, all eyes at Rabobank are on Gesink; he’s super talented, particularly when the road goes up. If he can keep the rubber side and not succumb to the pressure of the Tour, he could do quite well. A top-5 result is certainly within his reach. I can’t wait for the Tour’s next rendezvous with Alpe d’Huez as I’m sure Gesink will whip the legions of orange-clad fans into a real frenzy.
Man of the Hour: Some might call him an up-and-comer, but after his fantastic Vuelta last year, Robert Gesink’s the Man of the Hour in the Netherlands.
On the Hot Seat: Denis Menchov needs to have top performances in back-to-back Grand Tours to finally earn the credit he deserves. The question for Menchov this year is whether or not he should return to the Giro to defend his title. I think he should do it. It’s a winnable race for him, and then he can head to the Tour in support of Gesink while taking advantage of an opportunity to ride for himself if one arises.
Up-and-Comer: Lars Boom is turning into a more than respectable road racer—now he gets to take his first stab at the Classics. Along with Gesink, Holland’s future is looking very bright.
Best Pick-up: Rabobank’s a team not known for making waves on the transfer market; the majority of their new talent comes from their in-house Continental team. This year, two riders make the jump, Steven Kruijswijk and Dennis Van Winden.
Biggest Loss: Too bad Rabobank couldn’t retain Tejay Van Garderen; he looks to have the makings of a star.
#8 – Caisse d’Epargne
While some might hate to admit it, the presence of one rider can often elevate a team’s status. As a matter of fact, we’ll see that twice in today’s portion of ranking, beginning here with Alejandro Valverde and Caisse d’Epargne.
Love him or hate him, Valverde is one heck of talented rider, and has to be considered a favorite in just about every race he enters—excluding the Tour of course. Valverde’s already started-off 2010 on a victorious note, taking the overall title in the Med Tour. His next big objectives are Paris-Nice, Catalunya, and Pais Vasco before hitting the Ardennes—all winnable races for him.
Things get tricky for Valverde at the Tour though. The Dauphiné is one of his favorite races; his success there speaks volumes. But as soon as the calendar hits July it’s as if Valverde becomes an entirely different rider: timid, unsure, and prone to mistakes. While I doubt he can do it, if he were to take the mentality and poise he displayed in last year’s Vuelta and combine it with his fitness level from last year’s Dauphiné, a solid Tour result would be likely. I’ll grant him one last Tour try, but if this year goes as poorly as it has in the past, I hope he’ll settle for winning just about everything else.
There’s more talent at Caisse d’Epargne in the form of Luis Leon Sanchez, one of the savviest riders in the peloton. Sanchez can do it all when called upon, making him the most legitimate Tour leader for the Tour in Caisse’s stable. One can only imagine what Sanchez could do if he were free to ride for himself.
Overall, this talented duo faces the difficult task of performing well enough to entice someone to replace Caisse d’Epargne as title sponsor in 2011 and beyond. That’s a tall order in times as tough as these. But if anyone is capable of pulling it off, it’s Valverde—especially if he’s ever allowed back in Italy.
Man of the Hour: Valverde—could there be anyone else?
On the Hot Seat: Eusebio Unzue needs to find a sponsor—and fast. Not only is he looking down the barrel of unemployment, but he’s also competing with Bjarne Riis and Gerry Van Gerwen, two men whose teams have lost title sponsors as well.
Up-and-Comer: It’s hard to call Sanchez an up-and-comer given how long he’s been winning races. But he’s only 26, and still receives surprisingly little credit for his talent. If he raced anywhere but in Spain, he would be one of the most talked-about young riders in the world.
Best Pick-up: I like the additions of Marzio Bruseghin, Christophe Moreau, Juan Mauricio Soler, and Juan-Jose Cobo. Individually, none of them bring much to write home about, but collectively, they provide an instant injection of experience, talent, and strength to Caisse’s Tour squad. If only they had a leader with a proven track record of Tour success.
Biggest Loss: Caisse d’Epargne (the bank) has supported cycling for many years; its departure will be sorely missed—and not only in Spain.
#7 - Astana
Another team that benefits largely from the presence of one man is Astana with Alberto Contador. Like compatriot Alejandro Valverde, Contador is a favorite in any race he enters—particularly if it has at least one summit finish, and one mid-length time trial. Like Valverde, Contador’s already won his first this season, and appears headed to yet another title in the Tour.
When first ordering my teams for this project, I noticed several teams between Astana and Radio Shack. They appear quite similar, yet Astana is much further ahead in the ranking. Why? Because Contador will likely win the Tour and Armstrong will struggle to finish inside the top-10. Regardless of how a team performs in other races, a win in the Tour is an impressive result, and Astana cannot be taken lightly just because it appears one-dimensional.
But is Astana one-dimensional? Not really. Contador’s already won a race and will certainly win others before July. And even though he annoys the heck out of us, Alexandre Vinokourouv should be good for a win or two at some point in the season—maybe he’ll even win the Vuelta. Enrico Gasparotto won several races with Barloworld before falling into a bit of an obscure period; he has talent enough to win a race or two in Italy this season. And there’s Allan Davis as well, although I can’t help but wonder why he has such trouble finding teams willing to acquire his services.
But in the end, while other wins might come in, it’s all about the Tour for Astana. A win, and they’ve justified my high ranking. A loss—or worse—and several of them might be looking for new jobs in 2011.
Man of the Hour: It’s all about Contador and his bid for another Tour title. If he can win again—with the support of a completely re-designed team—he’ll affirm his place as the most talented Tour rider since Lance Armstrong.
On the Hot Seat: I am for ranking Astana 7th. It’s a risky move to put such a scandal-ridden team ahead of teams such as Rabobank, Caisse d’Epargne, and maybe even Radio Shack. Hopefully they’ll win enough races to make me look smart!
Up-and-Comer: Good luck answering this one, as the rest of Astana’s roster is filled with veterans hoping for a new lease on life and Kazakh neo-pros. If they’re lucky, maybe one or two will turn-out to be something worth keeping.
Best Pick-up: Specialized jumped at the chance to win a Tour, jettisoning Quick Step to sign Contador and then the rest of his team. A Tour winner needs more than just the support of the other 8 men in the race and Specialized will do anything to see to it that Contador has the best material in the world.
Biggest Loss: Johan Bruyneel is the best director in the sport. Even though he was in Bruyneel’s doghouse for most of the race, Contador will surely miss his leadership and mid-race tactical decision-making.
#6 – Team Sky
Whether you love them or hate them, Team Sky really has done an impressive job of putting together a deep and talented roster. One might resent teams that come out of nowhere, using deep pockets to cherry-pick talented riders from other more established teams; but look at this way: it’s refreshing to see sponsors still willing to take huge financial risks to back top-level teams. With sponsors like Saxo Bank, Milram, and Caisse d’Epargne falling to the wayside, we should welcome Team Sky, if for no other reason than the fact that they’ve taken the risk at all.
Sky’s biggest signing was one of it’s last as the saga over Bradley Wiggins lasted from the Tour well into the off-season. Wiggins gives Sky what it believes to be a serious Tour contender. I beg to differ. While Wiggins might find some success in the Tour, it can’t be counted-on as his performance last year seemed to come out of nowhere. Wiggins will ride the Giro before the Tour; perhaps we’ll have a better sense then of his prospects.
Sky’s real success will likely come from its other acquisitions—men like Edvald Boassen Hagen, Juan-Antonio Flecha, and Simon Gerrans. Boassen Hagen might be the most talented young rider in the sport right now—he’s a top favorite for the Omloop this weekend and could score big in the Tour of Flanders. Sky will also have one of the strongest teams on the line at Paris-Roubaix—maybe Flecha finally gets his big win. Hagen, Hayman, and yes, Brad Wiggins, will prove to be valuable domestiques on the pavé. In the Ardennes, Gerrans will get his chance to improve on his top-10 finishes before embarking on yet another bid for Grand Tour stage wins.
All in all, it’s a deeply talented squad, with many men capable of taking wins here and there. If I were Sky, I’d take an approach similar to BMC, focusing on the Classics and the Giro, reserving Tour success for the icing on the cake. But I’m not the one writing the checks now, am I?
Man of the Hour: Edvald Boassen Hagen’s on the verge of a major victory (as if Ghent-Wevelgem wasn’t enough). And at 22 years of age, he hasn’t even approached the ceiling of his potential.
On the Hot Seat: Both Wiggins and Flecha have been given chances to lead a team in their targeted races. Can they deliver the goods?
Up-and-Comer: I could try and list another rider, but Boassen Hagen’s the best young rider in the sport—and he’s 22! Incredible.
Biggest Pick-up: The fact that Dave Brailsford was able to pick-up a sponsor willing to foot the bill for such a team is pretty impressive. Without Sky’s support, a roster like this would never be possible.
Biggest Loss: Dignity. Did you see Sky’s skinsuits from Australia? More should be left for the imagination.
And that’s it for Part 3! Thanks so much for reading—I’ve appreciated all the terrific comments and emails. Please recommend us to your friends—and look for us at NAHBS if you plan to attend.
Come back tomorrow for Part 4—who will be #1?
Wednesday, July 1, 2009
Tour de France Preview - Les Équipes du Tour - Part Trois
Here's Part Trois in our team-by-team preview of this year's Tour de France. Tomorrow will be the last 5, including some we missed earlied due to rosters not being finalized.
You can read Part Une here, and Part Deux here.
Don't forget to add us to your RSS reader, follow us via Blogger, and keep track in 140 characters or less via Twitter.
And of course, keep those comments coming!
Here's Part Trois:
Lampre-NGC
Lampre comes to the Tour with aspirations similar to Katusha—minus the preceding drama (See Part Deux). For Alessandro Ballan, the goal is a stage win in the rainbow jersey, thus propelling him into the second half of the season with the hope of more wins to come. Simon Spilak is another rider to watch for in a breakaway; he’s talented and aggressive. In the sprints, Lampre will be backing Angelo Furlan, but he’s a step below the A-List field sprinters. Look for him later in the race if he can survive past the mountains.
Marzio Bruseghin comes to the Tour following his Top-10 ride in the Giro ready to test himself in July. A time trialist who can also pull good results in the mountains, Bruseghin has to be counted as at least a dark horse for the Top-10. He doesn’t have much of a team to back him when things get tough, but if he can follow the right moves and play-off the other, deeper squads he could find himself well-placed come Paris.
Liquigas
Don’t let Liquigas fool you. They say they’re coming to the Tour with modest aspirations, but they’re certainly capable of turning the race on it’s ear. Co-Leaders Roman Kreuzinger and Vincenzo Nibali are still considered by mangement to be a year away from a serious assault on the Maillot Jaune, but that could be a smoke screen to protect the youngsters—23 and 24 respectively—from the intense pressure favored status brings. Both can climb and time trial. Kreuzinger won the Tour de Suisse last year before finishing the Tour in 12th place; Nibali finished 7th in this year’s Dauphiné following his 20th place in Paris in 2008. Both riders will be motivated to take the next step to greatness, and—assuming they can avoid an inter-squad feud—can easily finish within the Tour’s Top-10.
Franco Pellizotti will be riding the race fresh from his 3rd place in this year’s Giro. The other two will certainly appreciate his presence. Franco’s a talented climber who can help in the more difficult stages; he's also used to the pressure of riding for the GC. While guiding the youngsters, he'll be shooting for a stage win himself. Look for him on transitional mountain stages, or perhaps, Mont Ventoux if he’s down on GC.
For the flatter days, Liquigas will be relying on former stage winner Daniele Bennati to regain the speed he’s displayed in the past. Watch for Aleksandr Kuschynski and Frederic Willems in breakaways—both are classics-type riders capable of winning following a long day off the front.
All in all, Liquigas comes to the Tour with perhaps one of the most well-rounded teams in the race. Capable of winning on multiple fronts, with good direction they could seriously threaten the supremacy of the more heavily-favored Astana’s, Rabobank’s, and Saxo’s.
Team Milram
Milram comes to the Tour with perhaps it’s best team in recent memory. Young, aggressive, and well-rounded, it's a team of riders capable of animating the race on several fronts.
Fabian Wegman comes to the Tour for the first time in recent memory without the jersey of German National Champion. Wegman’s an attacking rider who perhaps gets a bit too eager at times. Maybe not having the beacon of the all-white German Champ kit will temper his aggression just enough to get him the win he deserves.
Linus Gerdemann and Gerald Ciolek came over from Columbia after last season. Gerdemann will be Milram’s man for the GC and Ciolek their sprinter. Both could pull a surprise here and there—Ciolek more so than Gerdemann. Ciolek’s greatest asset is his endurance; he can last all the way to Paris long after other sprinters have gone home. Gerdemann will have Markus Fothen supporting him in the mountains as he shoots for the Top-10.
Finally, there’s a bevy of talented riders eager for stage wins including Peter Velits, Niki Terpstra, and Christian Knees. All have shown good form over the season so far, and they should be seen frequently off the front. It could be a very good Tour for Milram. It’s about time, isn’t it?
Quick Step
Quick Step’s full team has been confirmed with one major caveat: it has yet to be decided whether or not Tom Boonen will be allowed to compete following his positive test (out of competition) for cocaine. We''ll have to wait for Friday to get the final answer.
With Boonen, Quick Step’s goal is clear: win as many flat stages as possible while working to get Boonen the Green Jersey. Without Boonen, the team will take Allan Davis to the race. Davis is a capable sprinter, but he's no Tom Boonen (understatement of the year?). He stands far better chances once the race gets closer to Paris and the pure sprinters have gone home.
Stijn Devolder will once again be trying his luck at the GC, but it’s all but been concluded that it’s not his cup of tea. He should probably just do his best for a stage. But Boonen notwithstanding, Quick Step’s best chance for stage success probably lies in the capable hands of Sylvain Chavanel. He was one of the race's key animators last year, and he'll certainly be motivated to win another stage in his home tour.
But let’s face it: it all comes down to Boonen for Quick Step. With him, 4-5 stages are possible, without him, maybe 1 or 2.
Rabobank
Denis Menchov and his Rabobank colleagues might be the team everyone fears the most. An accomplished Grand Tour rider, Menchov comes to the Tour straight from his Giro victory, the last race he’s entered. Menchov finished 3rd in last year's Tour (following Kohl’s expulsion) more or less by following wheels in the mountains and making-up chunks of the time against the clock (Menchov’s one rider who might dispel my claim yesterday that only Cancellara/Garmin/Astana/Columbia will finish in the Top-10 in the Tour’s TT’s). This year the pressure will be on him to play more of an aggressive role; he’ll have to if he wants to win. Alberto Contador and Cadel Evans are much better GC riders than Danilo DiLuca; Menchov’s “me and my shadow” strategy won’t work as well in France as it did in Italy.
Rabobank brings a talented team with Menchov to Monaco. Robert Gesink will get his first stab at riding the Tour. He could prove to be Menchov’s biggest ally in the mountains along with Laurens ten Dam. Stef Clement and Joost Posthuma are two rouleurs capable controlling the flatter stages and adding firepower in the TTT. Juan Antonio Flecha will be seeking stage wins, as well as his compatriot, Oscar Freire. Freire’s always a favorite for the Green Jersey; Clement and Posthuma will help in that regard.
But in the end, it will all come down to Menchov. He’ll need a good mix of aggression and consistency if he hopes to win. If he does, he’ll join an exclusive group of riders who can say they've won all three Grand Tours.
That's it for now. Keep coming back daily for coverage, comments, and more. It will be Pavé's biggest month since April!
You can read Part Une here, and Part Deux here.
Don't forget to add us to your RSS reader, follow us via Blogger, and keep track in 140 characters or less via Twitter.
And of course, keep those comments coming!
Here's Part Trois:
Lampre comes to the Tour with aspirations similar to Katusha—minus the preceding drama (See Part Deux). For Alessandro Ballan, the goal is a stage win in the rainbow jersey, thus propelling him into the second half of the season with the hope of more wins to come. Simon Spilak is another rider to watch for in a breakaway; he’s talented and aggressive. In the sprints, Lampre will be backing Angelo Furlan, but he’s a step below the A-List field sprinters. Look for him later in the race if he can survive past the mountains.
Marzio Bruseghin comes to the Tour following his Top-10 ride in the Giro ready to test himself in July. A time trialist who can also pull good results in the mountains, Bruseghin has to be counted as at least a dark horse for the Top-10. He doesn’t have much of a team to back him when things get tough, but if he can follow the right moves and play-off the other, deeper squads he could find himself well-placed come Paris.
Don’t let Liquigas fool you. They say they’re coming to the Tour with modest aspirations, but they’re certainly capable of turning the race on it’s ear. Co-Leaders Roman Kreuzinger and Vincenzo Nibali are still considered by mangement to be a year away from a serious assault on the Maillot Jaune, but that could be a smoke screen to protect the youngsters—23 and 24 respectively—from the intense pressure favored status brings. Both can climb and time trial. Kreuzinger won the Tour de Suisse last year before finishing the Tour in 12th place; Nibali finished 7th in this year’s Dauphiné following his 20th place in Paris in 2008. Both riders will be motivated to take the next step to greatness, and—assuming they can avoid an inter-squad feud—can easily finish within the Tour’s Top-10.
Franco Pellizotti will be riding the race fresh from his 3rd place in this year’s Giro. The other two will certainly appreciate his presence. Franco’s a talented climber who can help in the more difficult stages; he's also used to the pressure of riding for the GC. While guiding the youngsters, he'll be shooting for a stage win himself. Look for him on transitional mountain stages, or perhaps, Mont Ventoux if he’s down on GC.
For the flatter days, Liquigas will be relying on former stage winner Daniele Bennati to regain the speed he’s displayed in the past. Watch for Aleksandr Kuschynski and Frederic Willems in breakaways—both are classics-type riders capable of winning following a long day off the front.
All in all, Liquigas comes to the Tour with perhaps one of the most well-rounded teams in the race. Capable of winning on multiple fronts, with good direction they could seriously threaten the supremacy of the more heavily-favored Astana’s, Rabobank’s, and Saxo’s.
Milram comes to the Tour with perhaps it’s best team in recent memory. Young, aggressive, and well-rounded, it's a team of riders capable of animating the race on several fronts.
Fabian Wegman comes to the Tour for the first time in recent memory without the jersey of German National Champion. Wegman’s an attacking rider who perhaps gets a bit too eager at times. Maybe not having the beacon of the all-white German Champ kit will temper his aggression just enough to get him the win he deserves.
Linus Gerdemann and Gerald Ciolek came over from Columbia after last season. Gerdemann will be Milram’s man for the GC and Ciolek their sprinter. Both could pull a surprise here and there—Ciolek more so than Gerdemann. Ciolek’s greatest asset is his endurance; he can last all the way to Paris long after other sprinters have gone home. Gerdemann will have Markus Fothen supporting him in the mountains as he shoots for the Top-10.
Finally, there’s a bevy of talented riders eager for stage wins including Peter Velits, Niki Terpstra, and Christian Knees. All have shown good form over the season so far, and they should be seen frequently off the front. It could be a very good Tour for Milram. It’s about time, isn’t it?
Quick Step’s full team has been confirmed with one major caveat: it has yet to be decided whether or not Tom Boonen will be allowed to compete following his positive test (out of competition) for cocaine. We''ll have to wait for Friday to get the final answer.
With Boonen, Quick Step’s goal is clear: win as many flat stages as possible while working to get Boonen the Green Jersey. Without Boonen, the team will take Allan Davis to the race. Davis is a capable sprinter, but he's no Tom Boonen (understatement of the year?). He stands far better chances once the race gets closer to Paris and the pure sprinters have gone home.
Stijn Devolder will once again be trying his luck at the GC, but it’s all but been concluded that it’s not his cup of tea. He should probably just do his best for a stage. But Boonen notwithstanding, Quick Step’s best chance for stage success probably lies in the capable hands of Sylvain Chavanel. He was one of the race's key animators last year, and he'll certainly be motivated to win another stage in his home tour.
But let’s face it: it all comes down to Boonen for Quick Step. With him, 4-5 stages are possible, without him, maybe 1 or 2.
Denis Menchov and his Rabobank colleagues might be the team everyone fears the most. An accomplished Grand Tour rider, Menchov comes to the Tour straight from his Giro victory, the last race he’s entered. Menchov finished 3rd in last year's Tour (following Kohl’s expulsion) more or less by following wheels in the mountains and making-up chunks of the time against the clock (Menchov’s one rider who might dispel my claim yesterday that only Cancellara/Garmin/Astana/Columbia will finish in the Top-10 in the Tour’s TT’s). This year the pressure will be on him to play more of an aggressive role; he’ll have to if he wants to win. Alberto Contador and Cadel Evans are much better GC riders than Danilo DiLuca; Menchov’s “me and my shadow” strategy won’t work as well in France as it did in Italy.
Rabobank brings a talented team with Menchov to Monaco. Robert Gesink will get his first stab at riding the Tour. He could prove to be Menchov’s biggest ally in the mountains along with Laurens ten Dam. Stef Clement and Joost Posthuma are two rouleurs capable controlling the flatter stages and adding firepower in the TTT. Juan Antonio Flecha will be seeking stage wins, as well as his compatriot, Oscar Freire. Freire’s always a favorite for the Green Jersey; Clement and Posthuma will help in that regard.
But in the end, it will all come down to Menchov. He’ll need a good mix of aggression and consistency if he hopes to win. If he does, he’ll join an exclusive group of riders who can say they've won all three Grand Tours.
That's it for now. Keep coming back daily for coverage, comments, and more. It will be Pavé's biggest month since April!
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