Monday Musette - End of Season Awards (You Haven't Heard of Yet)

It’s the end of the year, a time for reflection, renewal, relaxation, and—awards. To me, most of the serious ones have already been awarded to deserving recipients. But here are a few that might have been missed:

The “This Contract’s Not Worth the Paper Upon Which It’s Written” Award

Maybe we need to blame EU labor laws for this, but it’s hard to not give this one to Bradley Wiggins. Here’s hoping he’s able to make good on the potential Sky sees in him. If he doesn’t, it could prove to be one of the costliest blunders in the history of transfers.

The “A Promise is a Promise—Until It Isn’t” Award

Specialized shocked everyone this fall, first by signing Alberto Contador to an individual deal then by leaving Quick Step to supply bikes for the entire Astana team. Was a contract broken? No, the agreement between SBC and Quick Step was due to expire anyway. But reading between the lines, one can’t help but sense that Patrick Lefevere felt a bit betrayed by Specialized’s sudden change of heart.

The “Wasted Breath, Wasted Time, and Wasted Blood” Award

This past year, several teams and riders signed agreements with independent doctors to monitor and publish their “health” findings—only to end these agreements later. First it was Lance, then Team Saxo Bank followed suit. Have you ever read The Great Gatsby? Do you remember the part when the narrator, Nick Carraway, tells us “he’s one of the few honest people that [he] has ever known”? It’s an important moment, for Nick is ironically one of the most dishonest characters in the novel. A fact made doubly important due to the fact that he’s the one narrating. The lesson: never trust a person who boasts of his or her own honesty—especially if they take it back soon after.

The “Innovation Most Likely to Actually Innovate” Award

At first, I think we all thought Shimano’s Di2 electronic group would prove to be nothing more than a passing fancy. Skil-Shimano and Rabobank domestiques were the early testers, but that was attributed to nothing more than a result of their sponsor-team relationships. But soon other, more important riders began choosing to use it—including George Hincapie. And now, several of the World’s fastest cyclocross racers are riding it and winning with it—in some pretty adverse conditions. I won’t be fully sold until it wins a major one-day road race, thus proving its reliability in races where one untimely mechanical problem can be most costly (like on the Poggio, at the foot of the Muur, or in the Arenberg Forest). But I think that day is coming—soon.

The “Innovation Least Likely to Actually Innovate” Award

It’s cool, it’s clever, and it might even work. But it’s not likely to gain a serious foothold in the marketplace.

The “Rider of the Year Who Has Not Already Won a ‘Rider of the Year Award’” Award

I’m not sure about you, but I think one of the best sub-plots of this year’s Tour de France was the mini-Renaissance of French cycling. I say “mini” because it will be difficult to fully proclaim France’s return to Tour prominence until they can boast of a true overall contender. That said, Brice Feillu gave it his best shot this year, winning the stage to Arcalis and finishing 25th overall—in his first Tour. Whether or not he has the talent to win the race outright remains to be seen, but he certainly deserves credit for a classy stage win that lifted the hopes of a nation in desperate need of someone to cheer for—all the way to Paris.

The “What Were They Thinking?” Award

When it was first unveiled to the press, I thought AG2R’s new kit might look pretty cool in a retro sort of way. Then I saw it for real.

And finally…

The “Best Blog That Uses European Cycling Jargon in its Title” Award

La Gazzetta Della Bici is a great choice, but it’s already won something. To me, the winner here is a recent addition to my Google reader: El Cyclista. It’s well-designed, offers focused coverage, and doesn’t overwhelm me with kitsch or angst. (A lesson I’m still trying to learn myself.) It deserves your regular visitation.

(Did you really think I’d create an award just for myself? Puh-lease…)

So I guess that’s it for the last Monday Musette of 2009. Who did we leave out? What awards do you have to share with the rest of us?

Would you like me to take a serious stab at identifying some "real" awards for 2009? I’m happy to offer my insights on the season’s important performances if you wouldn’t consider it redundant. If so, what would you like to see recognized?

Please leave your ideas and comments below. Thanks for reading!

Tour de France - Rest Day Report - 5 Indefensible Claims Re-Visited

Just before the Tour began in Monaco, we published 5 Indefensible Claims about this year's race. Outrageous, unfounded, and perhaps politically incorrect, they were an interesting way to generate some conversation about the events to come.

So let's take advantage of today's rest day in Limoges to see how we're doing.

Here we go:

1. This year’s Tour will be free of any doping controversy.

So far, so good. Today is an important day though, as doping scandals seem to come-out during rest days. But up to now, we’re riding a clean race. Let’s stop talking so we don’t jinx it.


2. Mark Cavendish will win one individual stage and one stage only.

Okay my Union Jack friends, you got me here. Cavendish quickly won two stages, immediately making me eat my words. And with Cavvie still in the race, and three flat stages to come this week, he looks to add to his total. Time to give respect where it’s due.


3. French riders or riders on French teams will win more stages than any other country, making it a banner year for the “home équipe”.

I’m most proud of this claim, not only because it feels good to be right (so far), but because it’s good for the race itself. As it stands, the French tally includes 3 stage wins, 2 days in the yellow jersey (and counting), and several days in the polka-dot jersey as well. For weeks we’ve been touting Voeckler and Fedrigo to win stages; so no surprises there. But Brice Feillu? We never saw that one coming, particularly on the first summit finish of the race. Hopefully he can continue to ride well as the race progresses; it would be fantastic to have a new French hope for the mountains and perhaps the GC. Allez!


4. Lance Armstrong Won’t Finish the Race.

This looks like it will turn-out to be incorrect as Lance currently sits in 3rd place overall, only a handful of seconds away from the yellow jersey. And while misfortune is always possible, it just isn’t sporting to wish it on a rider simply for the sake of having an indefensible claim turn-out correct.

So bad luck aside, it looks like Lance has only the weight of his own ego to contend with. Clearly he considers himself to be a top favorite for his 8th title, but what happens if he cracks? How will his ego respond? Will he dutifully assume the role of domestique, content in helping a teammate go for the win? Or will he implode, leaving the race early to go home and pout?

I still think he’s a step below Contador; lacking the acceleration necessary to follow the sharpest mountain attacks. We’ll have to wait until next Sunday when the race climbs to Verbier to get our first look.


5. Roman Kreuziger will win the Tour de France.

The jury’s still out on this one. Right now Kreuziger sits in 14th, 2:40 behind the maillot jaune. He lost a bit of time on Stage 3, when wind (and Columbia) split the group, and he lost a minute on Arcalis. He and his teammate, Vincenzo Nibali, are still riders to be reckoned with; if they are given a bit of latitude they could pull-off a shock. However, at this point, it seems both are content to follow wheels to as high a placing as possible, unwilling to attack lest it hurt their overall chances.

As the race evolves though, Kreuziger will improve. He enjoys riding in the Alps and has had success in the Swiss stage races the Tour de Romandie and the Tour de Suisse. Does he face a monumental task in going for the win? Yes. Have crazier things happened? Yes. Let’s see where things stand a week from now.

So overall, as it stands right now we'll give ourselves a 2 out of 5. Solid, but not great.

What about you? Any indefensible or outrageous claims for the second week? The rest of the race?

Share your predictions below.

Tour de France - Stage 1 Haiku Wrap-up

Haiku reporting.
Small efforts can speak loudest.
Mirrors Stage 1 rides.

Cancellara
Dominating ride.
Could hold yellow for long time.
If team supports him.

Contador
Second is a win.
Team should be his for good now.
Trade dots for yellow?

Evans
Where he wants to be:
Lurking, but can still shadow.
Waiting for mountains.

Kreuziger and Nibali
Have they earned respect?
Maybe they're still dark horses?
Do not ignore them.

Armstrong
Contador beat him.
Kloden and Leipheimer too.
Is 4th worse than 10th?

Menchov
No one’s afraid now.
Lackluster effort at best.
Shooting for stage wins?

Garmin
Four in top twenty.
TTT is theirs to win.
But for Astana.

Stage 2
Bumpy ride today.
But will anyone get dropped?
Hushovd gets the stage.

Please share your comments.

Haikus would be fun to read,
But all thoughts welcome.

Tour de France Preview - 5 "Indefensible" Claims

Sorry Mark, it's not your year...

What would the Tour be without the surprising and unexpected?

Here are Pavé's 5 "Indefensible" Claims for this year's Tour:

1. This year’s Tour will be free of any doping controversy.

Okay, Thomas Dekker and the latest rumors of several more positives might have already debunked this claim, but we’re sticking to our guns: from the Prologue to Paris we’ll have a clean race.

Naive? Perhaps. But while we think the sport is still years away from teams not signing riders they suspect are doped, we have entered a phase (maybe?) where teams at least leave suspected dopes off their rosters for the sport’s biggest races. Teams just don't seem willing to take the risk of having a rider test positive at events on a world stage anymore. The UCI's Biological Passport makes it easier for them to make educated guesses, and this year could be the first where the results—or lack thereof—speak for themselves.

2. Mark Cavendish will win one individual stage and one stage only.

This year, Mark Cavendish won’t find it as easy as it was last year to win sprint stages. The reason?

Well, its initials are TB, it now wears a tri-color jersey, and it likes rocks…er…stones…um…cobbles.

Tom Boonen’s back, ladies and gentlemen, and he’s ready to show the world that he’s still one of the fastest men in the world—on a bike. But it’s too simple to say just one rider’s presence is enough to thwart Cavendish’s bid for sprint dominance. And it isn’t.

Last year, Cavendish came to the race with everyone thinking he would win a stage, but not certain as to how many. This year he arrives with the pressure of repeating and perhaps surpassing his indomitable performance.

The parcours also does him no favors. The mountains come a bit earlier than in years past, and Cavendish could struggle to make it over them while maintaining his sprint speed. He'll also miss the presence of Marcus Burghardt, one of his most trusted lead-out men.

Plus, there’s the chance factor. Crashes, mechanicals, and blown lead-outs all factor into even the best sprinters’ plans from time to time. Cavendish might not get away so easily this time around.

3. French riders or riders from French teams will win more stages than any other country, making it a banner year for the “home équipe”.

It’s become apparent that we could have used Mad Libs to preview the 5 French teams in this year’s Tour. Here’s what they have in common: few serious GC candidates; no top-tier field sprinters capable of seriously threatening Boonen, Cavendish, Hushovd, and the like; and no climbers able to stay with the GC favorites in the mountains on a consistent basis.

We wish no disrespect for these teams; it’s just the reality of the situation right now. But it does mean—as we’ve been saying all week—that these teams come to the Tour with rosters full of men eager to attack, animate, and make the race aggressive as possible—particularly on days when the GC teams would be more content to just ride doucement.

This year, riders like Roman Feillu, Vladimir Efimkin, Thomas Voeckler, David Moncoutié, Yauheni Hutarovich, and the like will launch themselves off the front of every stage, gunning for victory. The odds will be in their favor on several stages.

Thus, with so many talented opportunists and so much to gain, we predict a banner year for French riders and French teams. If the 2009 Tour goes down as one of the most exciting in history, it won't only be due to the over-abundance of GC favorites (those battles are always exciting, regardless of the year), it will be due to the efforts of men like these.

And we'll all be saying, merci!

4. Lance Armstrong Won’t Finish the Race.

This claim has more to do with luck and less to do with fitness. Throughout his 7 Tour de France wins, Lance’s ability to avoid mishaps has been surprisingly underrated. While it’s certainly not as important as his other race-winning attributes, it must warrant consideration.

However, this year, Lance’s string of good luck seems to be coming to an end. He’s crashed. He’s broken a collarbone. He almost fell afoul of the UCI/WADA on an out of competition drug-testing technicality. His team almost lost its sponsorship a month before the race and comes to the the Tour with two leaders. And now, there's rumors he might leave all together when the race ends.

One will never know just how much this weigh’s on Lance; he’s a master at keeping his emotions veiled. But it can certainly be specualted--maybe even assumed--that this has not been the ideal build-up for the 37-year old's comeback bid.

The constellations don’t appear to be aligning in the way they used to for Big Tex. Sometime during the second week, he’ll make his exit. Then he’ll announce the creation of his new Bruyneel-led team and tell Vino to go BLEEP-himself.

And a whole new era begins.

5. Roman Kreuzinger will win the 2009 Tour de France.

A year too soon? Perhaps.

Too many other favorites? Maybe.

But while those are two compelling arguments against the claim, the list ends there. Kreuzinger’s won some pretty big races against some top competition in his young career. He’s finished well in the Tour and comes to the race this year with a better idea of what to expect. He also has a solid team behind him of capable riders able to support him in the race’s difficult moments.

But the biggest thing going for him might just be the two things working against him. The fact that no one seems to consider him a serious contender for the win—this year—could enable him to pull a surprise. Maybe he has a stellar Prologue, losing only seconds to the bigger GC favorites. Maybe he rides away from the lead group and gains some time in the Pyrenees because the “bigger” favorites are too busy looking at one another’s poker faces. Maybe he attacks and takes yellow in the Alps, defends it in the ITT, and then lets it all hang-out on Ventoux to take the jersey to Paris.

Stranger things have happened.

No matter what happens though, this year's race is a sure bet to be one of the most exciting in years. We hope you'll come back often for reports, opinions (no matter how outrageous), and more.

And please, share your thoughts with the rest of us below.

And for 5 more bold predictions, check-out our friends at Euro Peloton.

Tour de France Preview - Les Équipes du Tour - Part Quatre

Here's the fourth and final installment in Pavé's "Les Équipes du Tour" Preview. If you missed them, you can read Part Une here, Part Deux here, and Part Trois here.

Keep coming back for more coverage, predictions, and reactions to events as they unfold at le Grand Boucle. We promise daily coverage of all that happens.

Tomorrow, we'll be making 5 Indefensible Claims about this year's race--be sure to check it out!

Now back to the Preview:

Saxo Bank
It would be a serious mistake not to consider Andy Schleck a top favorite for this year’s Tour de France. Thanks to Carlos Sastre’s departure and his brother Frank's injury in the Amstel Gold Race, Andy should go into this year’s Tour with the full team at his disposal. Whether he will or not remains a big question as the Tour begins.

Saxo takes the start in Monaco with one of the most well-rounded teams in the race. Lacking only a field sprinter, the team is built for controlling things for whomever it deems its GC leader. Fabian Cancellara, Jens Voigt, Stuart O’Grady, and Kurt-Asle Arvesen are rouleurs who will help Saxo finish near the top of TTT and control things on flatter roads. And speaking of Spartacus, he’s showed tremendous form as of late, winning the Tour de Suisse and the Swiss National Championship--in the road race. Clearly anything but yellow in the Prologue will be a disappointment for Cancellara, and the team will quickly need to decide how long it wishes to defend his maillot jaune. The other three will also have their chances for breakaway stage wins once the GC scene gets a bit more settled; they’ve all had Tour stage success in the past.

The best thing about Saxo’s rouleurs is their ability to set the pace in the mountains. It's not strange to see riders like Cancellara and Voigt riding men off the back of the GC group when things get steep. And if they can’t, Saxo has talent like Gustav Larsson, Chris Anker Sørensen and Nicki Sørensen to help in the mountains. Anker Sørensen’s riding his first Tour, and is a rider to watch for the future.

The wild card is Frank Schleck. His status needs to be assessed quickly so as not to compromise the team’s chances for GC success. If he’s injured, he should be used as a decoy early, attacking when he can to tire the legs of other teams. If healthy and his brother can play off one another in the Alps to try and crack the competition (and hopefully not each other).

All in all, it should be another banner year for Bjarne Rijs and his team. With a talented roster, stage wins should be plentiful. But for the GC it will all come down to the two men with the same last name—and no, we don’t mean the Sørensen’s.

Silence-Lotto
Cadel Evans comes to the Tour a bit more relaxed this year as at least some of the weight of being "Top Favorite" has passed from him to other riders. For Evans, a rider with a penchant for cracking under pressure, this is a very good thing. At least in the early stages, Cadel and his team should ride free of the burden of controlling race, content to sit back and let others set the pace when things matter most. Evans is not as talented as Contador, Armstrong, and maybe even Andy Schleck; he’ll need to be consistent and look to capitalize on his competitors' bad moments--if they have them. That said, he can win this race. Some good TT’s and a well-timed attack or two could put him in yellow. Then the pressure's on to keep it.

More importantly, this year Evans seems to have a team behind him more committed than ever to getting him to Paris on the top step of the podium. Gone are the days of splitting the team between Evans’ GC hopes and Robbie McEwen’s stage and Green Jersey aspirations. Yes, Greg Van Avermaet is there, but he’s a rouleur able to help the team when asked, while still mixing it up for a stage here and there (but not enough to warrant a full complement of riders to form a lead-out train).

Thomas Dekker was planning to take the line hoping to prove the glimpses of talent he’s showed in the past weren’t anomalies. He could have been Evans’ greatest ally when the race hit the mountains. Alas, he’s been left-off the squad (and now fired) following a 2007 positive test for a form of EPO. He’s been replaced by Charly Wegelius, an adequate and less temperamental substitute. Wegelius and Matthew Lloyd will be two of Evans' most important assistants in the mountains. And let’s not forget Belgian Super Domestiques Johan Vansummeren and Jurgen Van den Broeck, two riders capable of setting searing paces on the flats and ascents respectively.

In the end though, it will all come down to Evans. If he can exploit the other teams’ weaknesses, particularly the potential rivalries within some of those teams (Astana in particular), he can certainly take home his first win. And if he does, he will have accomplished it when all the greatest riders of his generation were present. That’s quite an achievement.

Skil-Shimano
In many ways, Skil-Shimano is like a French team. The Dutch Wild Card team comes to its first Tour with a diverse roster of men hoping to gain exposure and stage wins. Frenchmen Jonathan Hivert and Cyril Lemoine will try for victory on their home turf, while Fumiyuki Beppu seeks to become the first rider from Japan to win a Tour stage. That said, the team's biggest chance for success comes from Kenny Van Hummel. Van Hummel won the Four Days of Dunkirk this year and finished 2nd in last week’s Dutch Championship. It won’t be a surprise if he leaves France with a stage or two and possibly a fat new contract to ride for a Pro Tour team in 2010.

BBox Bouygues Telecom
We would have previewed BBox’s Tour team on Monday, but its roster wasn’t finalized at the time. Like many of its compatriots, BBox comes to the Tour seeking stage glory. Thomas Voeckler still remembers the year he took yellow in the first week and fought savagely to keep the jersey longer than anyone expected. He’s always capable of a similar exploit.

Pierrick Fedrigo won this year’s Dauphiné stage into Briançon. He’s a rider capable of winning from a mountain breakaway, and could be one to watch on Ventoux if a break is given some latitude by the rest of the GC contenders. Laurent Lefèvre and Yuri Trofimov are riders with similar tendencies, while the youthful Pierre Roland has been tipped as the next French climbing sensation. Finally, it should be noted that BBox is one of 2 teams with a Japanese rider as Yukiya Arashiro joins Skil-Shimano’s Fumiyuki Beppu in his attempt to become the first Tour stage winner from Japan.

Caisse d’Epargne
Like BBox, Caisse d’Epargne’s roster wasn’t finished when we went to post, so we’re covering them now.

Caisse d’Epargne comes to the Tour for the first time in recent memory without Alejandro Valverde. That’s not necessarily a bad thing. Not to be harsh, but Valverde has failed to show an ability to succeed in the pressure-cooker of the Tour. He’s much more suited to the hillier classics, shorter stage races, and the Vuelta.

Without him, Caisse d’Epargne will rely on Luis León Sanchez for its GC aspirations; the team might be very pleasantly surprised. León Sanchez has been winning major races for a while now and has only been prevented from full-blown stardom by having to ride for Valverde. Now he has the team fully at his own disposal and could make them forget about Valverde’s absence. He can climb, he can time trial, and he possesses a killer instinct that could see him put a bit of fear in the eyes of the bigger favorites. A Top-10 is a distinct possibility; a Top-5 woul be a surprise to some, but not for us.

León Sanchez has a talented roster of riders behind him including David Arroyo and Ivan Gutiérrez. More importantly, he has the experienced Oscar Pereiro to guide him through the tricky business of leading a team in the biggest race in the world. Overall, it could be a pleasantly surprising July for Caisse d’Epargne—unless your initials are “AV”.


That's it for the first annual Pavé Team-by-Team preview of this year's Tour contenders.

Who did we miss? Where did we over- or under-hype?

Share your comments with the rest of us--and come back tomorrow for more!

Tour de France Preview - Les Équipes du Tour - Part Trois

Here's Part Trois in our team-by-team preview of this year's Tour de France. Tomorrow will be the last 5, including some we missed earlied due to rosters not being finalized.

You can read Part Une here, and Part Deux here.

Don't forget to add us to your RSS reader, follow us via Blogger, and keep track in 140 characters or less via Twitter.

And of course, keep those comments coming!

Here's Part Trois:

Lampre-NGC
Lampre comes to the Tour with aspirations similar to Katusha—minus the preceding drama (See Part Deux). For Alessandro Ballan, the goal is a stage win in the rainbow jersey, thus propelling him into the second half of the season with the hope of more wins to come. Simon Spilak is another rider to watch for in a breakaway; he’s talented and aggressive. In the sprints, Lampre will be backing Angelo Furlan, but he’s a step below the A-List field sprinters. Look for him later in the race if he can survive past the mountains.

Marzio Bruseghin comes to the Tour following his Top-10 ride in the Giro ready to test himself in July. A time trialist who can also pull good results in the mountains, Bruseghin has to be counted as at least a dark horse for the Top-10. He doesn’t have much of a team to back him when things get tough, but if he can follow the right moves and play-off the other, deeper squads he could find himself well-placed come Paris.

Liquigas
Don’t let Liquigas fool you. They say they’re coming to the Tour with modest aspirations, but they’re certainly capable of turning the race on it’s ear. Co-Leaders Roman Kreuzinger and Vincenzo Nibali are still considered by mangement to be a year away from a serious assault on the Maillot Jaune, but that could be a smoke screen to protect the youngsters—23 and 24 respectively—from the intense pressure favored status brings. Both can climb and time trial. Kreuzinger won the Tour de Suisse last year before finishing the Tour in 12th place; Nibali finished 7th in this year’s Dauphiné following his 20th place in Paris in 2008. Both riders will be motivated to take the next step to greatness, and—assuming they can avoid an inter-squad feud—can easily finish within the Tour’s Top-10.

Franco Pellizotti will be riding the race fresh from his 3rd place in this year’s Giro. The other two will certainly appreciate his presence. Franco’s a talented climber who can help in the more difficult stages; he's also used to the pressure of riding for the GC. While guiding the youngsters, he'll be shooting for a stage win himself. Look for him on transitional mountain stages, or perhaps, Mont Ventoux if he’s down on GC.

For the flatter days, Liquigas will be relying on former stage winner Daniele Bennati to regain the speed he’s displayed in the past. Watch for Aleksandr Kuschynski and Frederic Willems in breakaways—both are classics-type riders capable of winning following a long day off the front.

All in all, Liquigas comes to the Tour with perhaps one of the most well-rounded teams in the race. Capable of winning on multiple fronts, with good direction they could seriously threaten the supremacy of the more heavily-favored Astana’s, Rabobank’s, and Saxo’s.

Team Milram
Milram comes to the Tour with perhaps it’s best team in recent memory. Young, aggressive, and well-rounded, it's a team of riders capable of animating the race on several fronts.

Fabian Wegman comes to the Tour for the first time in recent memory without the jersey of German National Champion. Wegman’s an attacking rider who perhaps gets a bit too eager at times. Maybe not having the beacon of the all-white German Champ kit will temper his aggression just enough to get him the win he deserves.

Linus Gerdemann and Gerald Ciolek came over from Columbia after last season. Gerdemann will be Milram’s man for the GC and Ciolek their sprinter. Both could pull a surprise here and there—Ciolek more so than Gerdemann. Ciolek’s greatest asset is his endurance; he can last all the way to Paris long after other sprinters have gone home. Gerdemann will have Markus Fothen supporting him in the mountains as he shoots for the Top-10.

Finally, there’s a bevy of talented riders eager for stage wins including Peter Velits, Niki Terpstra, and Christian Knees. All have shown good form over the season so far, and they should be seen frequently off the front. It could be a very good Tour for Milram. It’s about time, isn’t it?

Quick Step
Quick Step’s full team has been confirmed with one major caveat: it has yet to be decided whether or not Tom Boonen will be allowed to compete following his positive test (out of competition) for cocaine. We''ll have to wait for Friday to get the final answer.

With Boonen, Quick Step’s goal is clear: win as many flat stages as possible while working to get Boonen the Green Jersey. Without Boonen, the team will take Allan Davis to the race. Davis is a capable sprinter, but he's no Tom Boonen (understatement of the year?). He stands far better chances once the race gets closer to Paris and the pure sprinters have gone home.

Stijn Devolder will once again be trying his luck at the GC, but it’s all but been concluded that it’s not his cup of tea. He should probably just do his best for a stage. But Boonen notwithstanding, Quick Step’s best chance for stage success probably lies in the capable hands of Sylvain Chavanel. He was one of the race's key animators last year, and he'll certainly be motivated to win another stage in his home tour.

But let’s face it: it all comes down to Boonen for Quick Step. With him, 4-5 stages are possible, without him, maybe 1 or 2.

Rabobank
Denis Menchov and his Rabobank colleagues might be the team everyone fears the most. An accomplished Grand Tour rider, Menchov comes to the Tour straight from his Giro victory, the last race he’s entered. Menchov finished 3rd in last year's Tour (following Kohl’s expulsion) more or less by following wheels in the mountains and making-up chunks of the time against the clock (Menchov’s one rider who might dispel my claim yesterday that only Cancellara/Garmin/Astana/Columbia will finish in the Top-10 in the Tour’s TT’s). This year the pressure will be on him to play more of an aggressive role; he’ll have to if he wants to win. Alberto Contador and Cadel Evans are much better GC riders than Danilo DiLuca; Menchov’s “me and my shadow” strategy won’t work as well in France as it did in Italy.

Rabobank brings a talented team with Menchov to Monaco. Robert Gesink will get his first stab at riding the Tour. He could prove to be Menchov’s biggest ally in the mountains along with Laurens ten Dam. Stef Clement and Joost Posthuma are two rouleurs capable controlling the flatter stages and adding firepower in the TTT. Juan Antonio Flecha will be seeking stage wins, as well as his compatriot, Oscar Freire. Freire’s always a favorite for the Green Jersey; Clement and Posthuma will help in that regard.

But in the end, it will all come down to Menchov. He’ll need a good mix of aggression and consistency if he hopes to win. If he does, he’ll join an exclusive group of riders who can say they've won all three Grand Tours.

That's it for now. Keep coming back daily for coverage, comments, and more. It will be Pavé's biggest month since April!

Tour de France Preview - Les Équipes du Tour - Part Deux

Here are the next 5 teams in our team-by-team preview of this year's Tour de France. We're going alphabetically, saving for the end those teams with rosters still unconfirmed at post time.

Be sure to keep coming back daily for more previews, random notes, and reports once the race gets started on Saturday in Monaco.

And in case you missed it yesterday, you can read Part Une of our preview here.

Team Columbia – HTC
Remember when Columbia won 6 out of 9 stages at the Tour de Suisse? Well, look for much of the same here. A double-digit win total is certainly within the realm of possibility as just about every rider on the team’s roster could win an individual stage.

Obviously, Mark Cavendish is the team’s primary focus during the flatter stages. But don’t forget Bernhard Eisel. He showed in the Tour de Suisse that he can win field sprints too and he has the ability to last well into the race’s final days. He’ll be working for Cavvie early on, but he’ll certainly have some chances to play his own hand closer to Paris—perhaps on the Champs-Élysées itself. Bert Grabsch could pull a win in any of the Tour’s time trials--same for Tony Martin, an outside bet to perform well on the GC.

And speaking of time trials, don’t think this team won’t be gunning for the TTT next Tuesday--especially if it means yellow for Cavendish. George Hincapie is never to be forgotten; it would be nice to see him add another stage to his palmares. And keep your eye on Maxime Monfort; he must be talented if earned a spot over André Griepel and 2008 stage winner Marcus Burghardt.

For the GC, Columbia’s putting its hopes in Kim Kirchen and Michael Rogers. Both have the ability for a Top-5 or Top-10 finish, but that might be a stretch in a year with so many favorites. Regardless, it will be a banner July for Columbia—just as it’s been pretty much since the season began.

Euskaltel-Euskadi
For Euskaltel, the Tour will essentially be decided by the end of the first week. In particular, Stages 6 through 9 take place at least partially in Spain (or darn to close to it). Stage 9 from Saint-Gaudens to Tarbes rides through the team’s Basque backyard, climbing over the Col d’Aspin and the Tourmalet in the process. Expect to see the team on the offensive during this period, especially when the road begins to climb.

The team lost its main GC hope when Haimar Zubeldia jumped to Astana. Mikel Astarloza will hope to fill the void; he’s finished in the Top-10 before and rode well to finish 5th in the Dauphiné. Egoi Martinez and the rest will hope for some luck in breakaways, with Igor Anton focused particularly on the mountains. But it can’t be stressed enough: a win in Stages 6 to 9 and the team can spend the rest of the Tour essentially pressure-free. A win in Andorra on Arcalis, and the team can relax for the rest of the season.

Française des Jeux
Like other French teams, FDJ comes to the race hoping for TV exposure when live coverage begins and more importantly, stage wins. Thus, Marc Madiot’s team is well-stocked with rouleurs and escapees.

Anthony Geslin rode a brilliant race to win this spring’s Brabantse Pijl; he’ll be looking for the right breakaway to get him a win in his national tour. The same goes for Sébastien Joly, Benoît Vaugrenard, and Jussi Veikkanen, riders suited to winning races from small groups. Sandy Casar is reportedly the team’s main hope for the GC, but he’s never lit anyone’s fire in that department. Yes, he finished 14th last year, but do you remember it? He stands a better chance gunning for a stage win—he won one in 2007 following a dramatic day of racing.

That said, FDJ’s greatest hope comes from Belorussia in the form of Yauheni Hutarovich, a sprinter with several wins to his name this year. He’s another rider who can win out of breakaways and in field sprints. Look for him especially in the Tour’s final week. If FDJ gets a stage this year, there’s a good chance it will come via this rider.

Garmin-Slipstream
Of all the roster omissions leading up to this Tour, perhaps none has bothered us here at Pavé more than Garmin leaving Will Frishkorn at home. Will was beginning to remind us of Jacky Durand with his fondness for the all-day breakaway. Courage, Will; you’ll get another chance for Tour glory.

As for the riders in the race, Garmin has selected—again—a team full of rouleurs and time trialists. He might be a punk, but Cavendish isn’t that off-base: this is a team for the TTT. On paper, only Daniel Martin appears to be a liability against the clock, so clearly, Garmin’s the 3rd entry in a 3-horse race in the Tour’s time trials (along with Astana and Columbia). In fact, except for Saxo’s Fabian Cancellara, I bet you’ll see every Top-10 spot in the each of the Tour’s TT’s occupied by a rider from these 3 teams.

For the GC, Garmin says Christian Vande Velde’s 4th place in 2008 was no fluke. Luckily, VDV’s Giro tumble is just the excuse they’ll need if he struggles to score a similar result. For the sprints? Tyler Farrar is talented, but he lacks the top-end power and the team necessary to beat Cavendish, Boonen, and Hushovd head-to-head. But don’t rule him out later in the race—maybe on the Champs-Élysées?

Were we running this team, we’d abandon any serious GC aspirations and go for breakaway stage wins (Ryder Hesjedal will do Will F. proud), the time trials, and field sprints once the big sprinters go home. We’d also let Daniel Martin ride his own race, following wheels in the mountains to see what he can do. And of course, we’d—cautiously—hope for the Yellow Jersey following the Prologue or TTT.

Then we'd go for hunting for a legitimate captain for the GC in next year's race.

Team Katusha
Katusha has also been unable to avoid a bit of Pre-Tour scandal. Asking the riders to sign a new clause in their contracts giving the team 5-times their annual salary should they be found positive for doping produced mixed results. Kenny Dehaes has already left the team for Silence-Lotto and Geert Steegmans has been declared “inactive”, thus leaving him out of the Tour roster. Couple this with Robbie McEwen’s absence due to a fall earlier in the season and you have a Katusha roster much less potent than originally planned.

As a result, the team comes to the Tour looking for stage wins. Filippo Pozzato is the new Italian Champion; he’ll be eager to show-off the tricolore. Sergei Ivanov, Alexandre Botcharov, and Mikhail Ignatiev are also capable of scoring breakaway stage wins.

Vladimir Karpets takes the line in Monaco as Katusha’s lone GC threat, but it’s hard to see him doing anything more than maybe finishing just inside the Top-10. He’s adequate both uphill and against the clock, but has yet to show the top talent necessary to hang with the big guns on a consistent basis.



That's it for Part Deux. Come back tomorrow for more!

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Tour de France Preview - Les Équipes du Tour - Part Une

Here at Pavé we’re getting geared-up for our first year of coverage of this year’s Tour de France. Expect updates and comments on a daily basis, as well as speculation, gentle rants, and whatever else we might have up our sleeves.

Frankly, we're hoping it will be the best month Pavé yet!

To begin, we thought a team-by-team preview might be in order, particularly since the web is inundated with reports on the individual favorites. We’ll go alphabetically through all 20 teams, posting 5 each day as final rosters are submitted.

Come back daily to see what’s new!

Here's Part Une:

AG2R-La Mondiale
AG2R won two stages in last year’s Tour (albeit one was due to Riccardo Ricco’s forfeit) and returns this year hoping for more of the same. They take the start in Monaco Saturday with Cyril Dessel as their “GC Rider”, but he’ll really just be hoping for another stage win and possibly a finish in the Top-10 (although Top-15 or 20 seems more like it). Vladimir Efimkin would love to win a stage outright, while talented escape artists like Stéphane Goubert, Jose-Luis Arrieta, and Rinaldo Nocentini will look to make things interesting. This is a team that makes it's budget during July, and anything less than at least one stage will be considered a disappointment.

Agritubel
Agritubel takes the line hoping for stage wins and perhaps a Top-10 from the soon-to-be-retired Christophe Moreau. If Moreau can pull a Top-5 result in the Monaco Prologue his team will be one to watch during the first few days as he would love to pull on the Maillot Jaune once again. However, like many of the French teams, Agritubel’s real pain et beurre comes from the opportunists that stack its roster. The Feillu brothers (especially Roman), Sylvain Calzati, and Nicolas Vogondy are all riders capable of winning after long days in breakaways. Roman Feillu evens has the finishing speed to pull a surprise in a small sprint every now and again.

Astana
By most accounts, this is Astana’s Tour to lose. The team’s Tour roster can count 10 Grand Tour victories between Lance Armstrong and Alberto Contador, and several podium placings and Top Ten finishes through riders like Levi Leipheimer, Yaroslav Popovych, Andreas Kloden, and Haimar Zubledia. That said, one can’t help but wonder if this team has simply too much talent to work together cohesively. On top of that, it’s not like Astana’s had a drama-free Tour build-up either. Besides the circus that surrounds Lance Armstrong, the team has faced a sponsorship crisis, several rumors of Contador’s departure (first to Spain then to the USA), and now a bit of a dust-up over the immensely popular and talented Chris Horner’s omission from the Tour team (most likely to keep Contador content). Clearly this is not the preparation Johan Bruyneel wanted for his team over the past 6 weeks.

When the race begins on Saturday, right away we’ll see a crisis of too many cooks to stir the soup. Look for Armstrong, Contador, and Kloden to ride good prologues, forcing the team to immediately make decisions about who it will protect throughout the first week. Expect at least one rider to begin pouting within the first 4-5 days.

Assuming all goes at planned during the opening days, by the time the race hits the mountains we might witness a full-on rift with lines being clearly drawn between the Armstrong and Contador camps. It could create exciting racing for the fans, but it will be a nightmare for Johan Bruyneel. Will Contador crack under the weight of Lance and his entourage? Will Armstrong’s ego allow him to survive should things not go quite as swimmingly as it used to for him in the Tour?

The key will be Johan Bruyneel. Johan will need to define clear and consistent roles for his riders early. He will need to cultivate trust within the team and hope that his decisions are proven wise in the race’s decisive moments. If he can convince his riders that winning the race for the team is more important than winning the race for any one individual, he stands a chance to go down as one of the sport’s greatest sport directors. Otherwise, he might be forced to learn a lesson that Joe Torre, former manager of the New York Yankees, came to know all too well: having the most talented players doesn’t always mean you’ll have the best team.

BBox Bouyges Telecom
At this time, BBox’s roster is still unconfirmed. We’ll cover them once their roster’s set later in the week.

Caisse d’Epargne
Like BBox and several other teams, Caisse d’Epargne’s roster is still unconfirmed at this time. We’ll come back to them later in the week!

Cervélo TestTeam
Like many of the other Top Favorite’s teams, Cervélo was not immune to some drama in the weeks leading to the Tour, notably due to the omission of Simon Gerrans from the team’s roster. A stage winner in last year’s Tour and this year’s Giro, Gerrans was certainly a rider worth a place on the team, both for his talents in the mountains and his knack for finding just the right breakaway. Bits of speculation surround his absence; it could come to bite them in the derrière.

As for whom they did take, Cervélo seems to be bringing a team more suited to winning stages than defending Sastre’s win last year. The team will work hard to get Thor Hushovd the Green Jersey and perhaps a stage win or two through riders like Andreas Klier and Heinrich Haussler. Haussler’s particularly interesting to watch as an outside favorite for the Green Jersey.

For his title defense, Sastre will be forced to rely mainly on Inigo Cuesta to help him up the bigger hills, as the rest of the team seems more suited to flatter days. (Here’s where the presence of Simon Gerrans would have made perfect sense.) All in all, Sastre is an outside favorite—at best—to win the Tour this year. Look for him to lose time to the bigger, more talented teams and riders, ultimately hoping for a Top-5 placing and a stage win when things get hilly.

Cofidis, Le Credit en Ligne

Like its compatriots, Cofidis will come to the Tour hoping for a stage win or two and—if he can put his l’argent where his bouche is—the polka dot jersey for David Moncoutié. Moncoutié shouldn’t be discounted; he’s a talented rider and has won a stage in the Tour before. Look for him especially on Stage 13 into Colmar, a transitional mountain stage with two Category 1 climbs—and no radios. As for the rest, breakaways will be the key with riders like Remi Pauriol taking turns off the front hoping for glory. Bingen Fernandez is also a potential pick to win a stage. It seems like Bingen’s been around forever; many in the peloton would appreciate seeing him take the big win he deserves. It could be his last chance.

That's it for now. Come back soon for the next team previews and more!