Saturday’s Milan-San Remo went-off without a hitch--despite the weather’s best attempts to ruin the day. After 298 kilometers of racing in cold, rainy conditions, it was a Spaniard who ended-up with the victory. Funny how two men from warmer, sunnier climates have taken wins in two of the season’s grimiest races thus far. Here’s what we learned:
1. I remember watching the 1999 World Championship Road Race in Verona, Italy with friends on a television in my apartment in Leuven, Belgium. When a young, unknown Spaniard surprised a select group of favorites including Francesco Casagrande, Frank Vandenbroucke, and Jan Ullrich, we all felt a bit ripped-off. But after 2 more World Titles, 7 Vuelta stage wins, 4 Tour stage wins, 1 Ghent-Wevelgem, and now 3 Milan-San Remo’s I think it’s time for me to officially apologize to Oscar Freire for years of underrating him. With the changes to this year’s Belgian calendar, Freire has a terrific opportunity to take yet another win in Sunday’s Ghent-Wevelgem—especially since many of his main rivals might choose to take Saturday’s E3 Prijs more seriously. Congratulations, Oscar. I won’t overlook you again—at least for one more week.
2. Tom Boonen was satisfied with a respectable 2nd place in San Remo—even though Freire blew his doors off in the sprint. What impressed me most was Boonen’s positioning on the Cipressa and Poggio—he rode attentively and comfortably at the front of the peloton, consistently placed within the first 10 or so riders. Clearly his form for Flanders and Roubaix has arrived. Unfortunately, I wonder if he might find himself too heavily marked in Flanders to take a third win. On the other hand, it’s essentially every man for himself on the pavé of Paris-Roubaix—at this point only Pozzato, Hushovd, and Cancellara look to have the condition to ride with him there. Then again, those races are still 2 and 3 weeks away—maybe it’s too soon to speculate?
3. As for Pippo Pozzato, he seemed to ride as if he had read the “This will come down to a sprint” writing on the wall. Knowing he had relatively little chances against sprinters such as Freire, Boonen, Bennati, and Hushovd, he seemed content to treat the race’s finale as an opportunity to test his legs on the attack. To be honest, when he rolled-off the front in pursuit of Vincenzo Nibali with 2km to go, I thought he would take his second victory—too bad the rest had other things in mind. At Flanders though, they might find catching up to Pozzato an entirely different enterprise.
4. And speaking of Hushovd, he made the leading group, ultimately sprinting to a slid 6th-place finish. With Flanders and Roubaix still weeks away, Thor looks to have starting his crescendo at just the right time. Unfortunately, it was also announced that he won’t have the support of Heinrich Haussler; his knee injury seems to be worse than expected, keeping out of races until later this spring.
5. Philippe Gilbert’s attack on the Poggio and subsequent 9th place finish confirmed his candidacy for a win in Flanders—Roubaix’s not very suited to his strengths. While his attack had little effect on the race itself, it served noticed to everyone—including the Belgian press—that he’s not to be overlooked.
6. And finally, we must mention Fabian Cancellara, another rider who led a quiet build-up to Saturday’s race. Spartacus rode comfortably with the lead group, finishing the day in 17th place. Like Hushovd, he appears on-track for a solid cobbled campaign.
7. Moving away from the pre-race favorites, Quick Step’s Sylvain Chavanel looks to be peaking quite nicely. If Boonen finds himself too heavily marked, Chavanel could play Devolder’s role in Flanders, possibly getting the win we all know he deserves. Regardless, his condition means teams will have two Quick Step riders with which to contend; an advantage few teams are able to match.
8. BMC’s Marcus Burghardt was his team’s only rider to finish with the leaders. As he seems to be peaking a bit sooner than his teammates Ballan and Hincapie (both of whom came in with the second group, 1:40 behind), look for him to impress this Sunday in Ghent-Wevelgem, a race he won in 2007. The German has also recorded top-5 finishes in both Dwars door Vlaanderen and the E3 Prijs in the past—it’s a shame they weren’t invited to Dwars, but it still could be a good weekend for the squad.
9. As we expected, Colnago’s Sacha Modolo finishing 4th on Saturday, continuing his string of top results from Tirreno-Adriatico. I know it’s a bit early to talk transfers, but look for him to be snapped-up by a team with an aging sprinter before next season—Lampre and Katusha might be possibilities—especially if he manages to grab a stage win or two in this year’s Giro.
10. Liquigas rode a fantastic race for Daniele Bennati with Vincenzo Nibali and Roman Kreuziger playing roles as prominent as we expected. Unfortunately, Bennati could manage no better than 5th. Clearly he’s a second-tier field sprinter, able to win only when better, faster competition is absent. Stick to Tirreno, DePanne, and the Vuelta, my friend. And by the way, give Liquigas the first “What Were They Thinking?” Award of 2010 for leaving Peter Sagan—a double stage-winner in Paris-Nice—at home.
11. Unfortunately, Tyler Farrar’s performance Saturday might put him in the same category as Bennati—although Bennati made it to the finish with the lead group. If Farrar’s team can’t position him well in a finale as straightforward as Milan-San Remo’s then what will they do in the cobbled classics, races with much more difficult profiles?
Two final thoughts from Saturday:
12. What the heck was Stefano Garzelli doing on the Poggio? Several sources claimed he attacked, but in my opinion he simply set a hard pace—but for whom?
13. Did you notice the prevalence of super-deep carbon fiber rear wheels? If this is indeed a new trend, I don’t get it. But I’m like that.
Time permitting, I’ve got a big week planned for Pavé. Here’s the schedule for the next several days:
Tuesday: Dwars Door Vlaanderen Preview
Wednesday: 5 Questions for the Cobbled Classics
Thursday: Dwars Door Vlaanderen Wrap-up/What We Learned
Friday: Weekend Preview(s) E3 and Criterium International
Saturday: Ghent-Wevelgem Preview
It’s an ambitious program, but I think I’m up for it—at least I hope so.
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Showing posts with label bennati. Show all posts
Showing posts with label bennati. Show all posts
Monday, March 22, 2010
Friday, March 19, 2010
Milan-San Remo Preview
It’s a bit of shame that when we talk about the favorites for Milan-San Remo we look at sprinters. Maybe it’s just the way the sport’s evolved over time, but it seems that the likelihood of a true breakaway succeeding gets slimmer and slimmer every year. And worse, while it used to be that only those sprinters able to make it over the Cipressa and Poggio would have a chance for the victory, now just about everyone has the ability to make it to the final straightaway down the Via Roma with a chance for the win. Then again, any race approaching 300 kilometers in length has to be taken seriously—no matter how the victor gets it done.
Regardless, La Primavera’s a beautiful race that any rider would be pleased to win. This year it once again looks as if sprinters will rule the day with Quick Step, Katusha, Garmin, Liquigas, and Sky all likely to work to bring a relatively intact group to the line. Interestingly, many of these teams also possess some of the more dangerous threats to win from a breakaway—I wonder what the result will be should a select group of lieutenants escape before the line. Would Quick Step chase down a group containing Chavanel? Would Rabobank bring back a break containing Boom or Nuyens? What will Katusha, Sky, and Liquigas do if Kolobnev, Flecha, and Kreuziger find themselves with a sizable gap at the top of the Poggio? And let’s not forget the Acqua Sapone’s and Androni Giocatoli’s of the world—they have no other choice than to attack, attack, and attack some more. These teams will make things interesting should the bigger squads prove resistant to animating the race.
Truly, the joy in Milan-San Remo comes from watching these scenarios unfold. So without further ado, let’s take a look at the favorites for Saturday’s Milan-San Remo, the first true classic of the season:
Filippo Pozzato – Like Quick Step, Katusha’s won only a few races so far this year, but don’t let that fool you—they have one of the most talented squads in the professional peloton. Filippo Pozzato already has one Milan-San Remo win under his belt—he’s hoping to add another. But while the wins haven’t come for Pippo yet this year, he’s made his presence known at the front of races including the Omloop Het Nieuwsblad, L’Eroica, and several stages in Tirreno-Adriatico. Milan-San Remo is the first target in what Pozzato hopes will be his finest spring yet—one that he hopes will include victories in the Tour of Flanders and Paris-Roubaix as well. Look for this to be the beginning of a terrific duel between Pozzato and his Belgian nemesis, one that could last the next 3 weeks.
Edvald Boasson Hagen - Of all the teams making splashes this past off-season, Team Sky appears to be getting the quickest returns on its investment. Hagen’s already won several races this year, including the final stage of Tirreno-Adriatico earlier this week, and his powerful sprint makes him a top favorite for Milan-San Remo. Hagen’s also an attacker though—if he looks around after the Poggio and doesn’t like what he sees, don’t be surprised to see him attack before the line in a fashion similar to Tchmil and Cancellara when they won on the Via Roma.
Oscar Freire – Freire’s had a quiet build-up to this year’s Milan-San Remo, but he’s a rider whose experience cannot be ignored. With a talented team supporting him, Freire could easily take his third Milan-San Remo title. Lars Boom and Nick Nuyens are two excellent wild cards; both would make excellent decoys in the race’s later phases. Look for one of them, likely Boom, to attack on the Cipressa, ultimately forcing other teams to chase. Freire’s greatest strength is his ability to handle the hills; he’s usually the last of the sprinters to be dropped on climbs like the Cipressa and Poggio. He’s also extremely cunning; of all the riders to have received little press this week, he’s the one to take most seriously.
Philippe Gilbert – Omega Pharma - Lotto’s Gilbert won two classics in a week last autumn when he rode to dominating victories in Paris-Tours (a race for the sprinters) and the Tour of Lombardy (a race catered to climbers). Like many riders, Gilbert’s had a quiet season thus far, slowly riding himself into form in Qatar, Oman, and Paris-Nice. A true all-rounder, Gilbert’s a legitimate contender in just about every major classic save Paris-Roubaix. His team’s full of strong men capable of keeping Gilbert fresh for the two climbs late in the race. If he makes it over the Poggio in a group with a gap to the pure sprinters, he could add a third classic to his resumé. He’s also candidate for a last-second dash for the line before the sprint has started.
Daniele Bennati - Tom Boonen’s pick for victory, Daniele Bennati comes to the race in peak form. He won Stage 3 of Tirreno, beating Petacchi, Farrar, and Flecha in the process. Like Freire, Bennati has a talented team of men surrounding him, two of them—Vincenzo Nibali and Roman Kreuziger—are perfect candidates for peloton-weakening attacks on the Cipressa and Poggio. Were I driving the car, Nibali would be given the task of attacking and/or covering on the Cipressa while Kreuziger would give it his all on the Poggio. The rest would ride support for Bennati, keeping him out of trouble and making sure he’s well-placed for an ensuing sprint. If Bennati hits the Via Roma in good position, he could bring home the win for the tifosi.
Thor Hushovd - The Mighty Thor finished 3rd here last year—he essentially won the “field” sprint behind Haussler and Cavendish—but this year his fitness has been a bit of a mystery. He was all but absent at the Omloop Het Nieuwsblad, but then practically rode himself into the ground at Kuurne. In Tirreno he failed to wow us, but that might just be a smokescreen. Without the injured Heinrich Haussler, Hushovd loses a valuable ally—other teams will be able to key on him exclusively should he find himself isolated. Still, Thor’s not someone to ignore, especially in a race often ending in a bunch sprint.
Alessandro Petacchi – Petacchi’s gracefully entering into the twilight of his career having made the move from LPR to Lampre. With Danilo Hondo providing lead-outs, he seems to have regained some of the speed that saw him win this race in 2005. That said, despite several early-season successes, I think Petacchi’s a step below riders like Boonen, Hagen, and even Oscar Freire—especially after his crash before Tirreno. A top-5 finish might be a more reasonable expectation for this aging star.
Matti Breschel – Saxo Bank’s had a quiet season thus far, and while many think Cancellara’s their top man for MSR, I think he’s a better bet for the cobbled classics in a few weeks time. Saxo’s better challenge might come from Matti Breschel, someone who has proven abilities in a sprint. Like Petacchi and Eisel, Breschel’s a bit of a long shot, but surprises have happened here before.
Maxim Iglinski & Enrico Gasparotto - Don’t be fooled into thinking Astana’s a one-trick pony. They have men not named “Alberto” who have scored wins so far this season and the team has ridden aggressively in every race it has entered. Two riders deserve mention as outside favorites for Milan-San Remo: Maxim Iglinsky and Enrico Gasparotto. Iglinsky won this year’s L’Eroica, Italy’s version of Paris-Roubaix, and Gasparotto won a stage in Tirreno-Adriatico. A win in San Remo would certainly be a surprise—but then again, stranger things have happened.
Mattia Gavazzi & Sacha Modolo – Colnago’s talented pair of sprinters scored some top finishes in Tirreno, look for one of them in the top-10 on Saturday, particularly if other riders sit-up once they feel they’re out of contention. These aren’t necessarily riders worth placing bets on, but when you’re on the Sunday group ride, you can say you weren’t surprised to see them in the front.
Stefano Garzelli & Michele Scarponi – It’s been a while since we saw an attack from the Poggio survive to the finish, but if it were to happen this year, I expect one or both of the top-2 men from Tirreno to be involved. Their teams don’t possess the sprint strength of other contenders and they’ll have free rein to try their hand in a breakaway. In Italy’s most important one-day race, look for both to attack in front of their home audience.
Final Prediction?
Certain races start to follow scripts over time, and Milan-San Remo’s proven no different over the past decade. This year I think we’ll see a race similar to 2009, but with different players in the leading roles. I think Boasson Hagen will play Heinrich Haussler, perhaps trying a last-second move rather than take his chance against a large group of field sprinters. Like Haussler last year, he’ll be caught just before the line—by Tom Boonen. Tyler Farrar will take advantage of the chaos to take third, taking Hushovd’s place from last year.
As for Pippo Pozzato, I think he’ll descend the Poggio with the leaders, but might not feel comfortable taking chances to take the victory. They’ll be too many riders, and he’ll perhaps be isolated or poorly positioned coming off the Poggio. In the end he’ll play it safe, lest he risk his chances in the cobbled classics still to come.
So that’s my Top-3: Boonen gets the win over Hagen and Farrar.
What about you? Who are your picks for tomorrow? Share them below.
Regardless, La Primavera’s a beautiful race that any rider would be pleased to win. This year it once again looks as if sprinters will rule the day with Quick Step, Katusha, Garmin, Liquigas, and Sky all likely to work to bring a relatively intact group to the line. Interestingly, many of these teams also possess some of the more dangerous threats to win from a breakaway—I wonder what the result will be should a select group of lieutenants escape before the line. Would Quick Step chase down a group containing Chavanel? Would Rabobank bring back a break containing Boom or Nuyens? What will Katusha, Sky, and Liquigas do if Kolobnev, Flecha, and Kreuziger find themselves with a sizable gap at the top of the Poggio? And let’s not forget the Acqua Sapone’s and Androni Giocatoli’s of the world—they have no other choice than to attack, attack, and attack some more. These teams will make things interesting should the bigger squads prove resistant to animating the race.
Truly, the joy in Milan-San Remo comes from watching these scenarios unfold. So without further ado, let’s take a look at the favorites for Saturday’s Milan-San Remo, the first true classic of the season:
Fotoreporter Sirotti
5-Stone Favorites
Tom Boonen - Quick Step only has 4 wins so far this season and they’re nothing to write home about. But that could change Saturday, as Tom Boonen heads into Milan-San Remo as the odds-on favorite to take the win. Boonen hasn’t been shy about his desire to win Milan-San Remo, and judging from the form he’s displayed over the past few weeks he’s clearly ready to do it. He’s powerful to make it over the Cipressa and the Poggio with the lead group. With a unified team dedicated to getting him to the line first, Boonen just might add a Milan-San Remo to his 2 Tours of Flanders and 3 Paris-Roubaix victories—quite an impressive classics resume! 
Fotoreporter Sirotti
Filippo Pozzato – Like Quick Step, Katusha’s won only a few races so far this year, but don’t let that fool you—they have one of the most talented squads in the professional peloton. Filippo Pozzato already has one Milan-San Remo win under his belt—he’s hoping to add another. But while the wins haven’t come for Pippo yet this year, he’s made his presence known at the front of races including the Omloop Het Nieuwsblad, L’Eroica, and several stages in Tirreno-Adriatico. Milan-San Remo is the first target in what Pozzato hopes will be his finest spring yet—one that he hopes will include victories in the Tour of Flanders and Paris-Roubaix as well. Look for this to be the beginning of a terrific duel between Pozzato and his Belgian nemesis, one that could last the next 3 weeks.
Fotoreporter Sirotti
Edvald Boasson Hagen - Of all the teams making splashes this past off-season, Team Sky appears to be getting the quickest returns on its investment. Hagen’s already won several races this year, including the final stage of Tirreno-Adriatico earlier this week, and his powerful sprint makes him a top favorite for Milan-San Remo. Hagen’s also an attacker though—if he looks around after the Poggio and doesn’t like what he sees, don’t be surprised to see him attack before the line in a fashion similar to Tchmil and Cancellara when they won on the Via Roma.
4-Stone Favorites
Tyler Farrar - Garmin comes to Milan-San Remo hoping Tyler Farrar can get the team its first win in a major spring classic. Farrar will need to make it over the Cipressa and the Poggio in the lead group while hoping some of the competition—like Hushovd and Tom Boonen—does not to have a chance for the victory. And while he might not have to worry about Hushovd, Boonen appears to be at the peak of his fitness. Still, Farrar’s beaten Boonen before; if things go right for him and his team, Garmin might just find itself on the top step of the podium.Oscar Freire – Freire’s had a quiet build-up to this year’s Milan-San Remo, but he’s a rider whose experience cannot be ignored. With a talented team supporting him, Freire could easily take his third Milan-San Remo title. Lars Boom and Nick Nuyens are two excellent wild cards; both would make excellent decoys in the race’s later phases. Look for one of them, likely Boom, to attack on the Cipressa, ultimately forcing other teams to chase. Freire’s greatest strength is his ability to handle the hills; he’s usually the last of the sprinters to be dropped on climbs like the Cipressa and Poggio. He’s also extremely cunning; of all the riders to have received little press this week, he’s the one to take most seriously.
Philippe Gilbert – Omega Pharma - Lotto’s Gilbert won two classics in a week last autumn when he rode to dominating victories in Paris-Tours (a race for the sprinters) and the Tour of Lombardy (a race catered to climbers). Like many riders, Gilbert’s had a quiet season thus far, slowly riding himself into form in Qatar, Oman, and Paris-Nice. A true all-rounder, Gilbert’s a legitimate contender in just about every major classic save Paris-Roubaix. His team’s full of strong men capable of keeping Gilbert fresh for the two climbs late in the race. If he makes it over the Poggio in a group with a gap to the pure sprinters, he could add a third classic to his resumé. He’s also candidate for a last-second dash for the line before the sprint has started.
Daniele Bennati - Tom Boonen’s pick for victory, Daniele Bennati comes to the race in peak form. He won Stage 3 of Tirreno, beating Petacchi, Farrar, and Flecha in the process. Like Freire, Bennati has a talented team of men surrounding him, two of them—Vincenzo Nibali and Roman Kreuziger—are perfect candidates for peloton-weakening attacks on the Cipressa and Poggio. Were I driving the car, Nibali would be given the task of attacking and/or covering on the Cipressa while Kreuziger would give it his all on the Poggio. The rest would ride support for Bennati, keeping him out of trouble and making sure he’s well-placed for an ensuing sprint. If Bennati hits the Via Roma in good position, he could bring home the win for the tifosi.
Thor Hushovd - The Mighty Thor finished 3rd here last year—he essentially won the “field” sprint behind Haussler and Cavendish—but this year his fitness has been a bit of a mystery. He was all but absent at the Omloop Het Nieuwsblad, but then practically rode himself into the ground at Kuurne. In Tirreno he failed to wow us, but that might just be a smokescreen. Without the injured Heinrich Haussler, Hushovd loses a valuable ally—other teams will be able to key on him exclusively should he find himself isolated. Still, Thor’s not someone to ignore, especially in a race often ending in a bunch sprint.
3-Stone Favorites
Marcus Burghardt – At this point in the season, Burghardt seems to be BMC’s best shot for victory tomorrow. He rode a solid Tirreno-Adriatico, even making an appearance in the break with Tom Boonen during Stage 6. With Hincapie, Kroon, and Ballan riding support, he could be granted a relatively stress-free ride to the finish where he could surprise everyone in a sprint. Alessandro Petacchi – Petacchi’s gracefully entering into the twilight of his career having made the move from LPR to Lampre. With Danilo Hondo providing lead-outs, he seems to have regained some of the speed that saw him win this race in 2005. That said, despite several early-season successes, I think Petacchi’s a step below riders like Boonen, Hagen, and even Oscar Freire—especially after his crash before Tirreno. A top-5 finish might be a more reasonable expectation for this aging star.
2-Star Favorites
Bernhard Eisel – I might regret it by tomorrow afternoon, but I don’t consider Mark Cavendish one of the favorites for tomorrow’s race. He’s had an inconsistent season thus far, with no wins having been added to his name. HTC’s best chance for a win might just be one of Cavendish’s lead-out men, Bernhard Eisel. Eisel’s career lacks a big win, but don’t let that fool you; he’s a talented sprinter who often is often asked to ride for the bigger names within his team. Can he win? That might be a bit of a stretch, but a good result is certainly well within his reach. Watch for his teammate Matthew Goss as well, the young Australian is on the way up and could mix it up at the finish as well.Matti Breschel – Saxo Bank’s had a quiet season thus far, and while many think Cancellara’s their top man for MSR, I think he’s a better bet for the cobbled classics in a few weeks time. Saxo’s better challenge might come from Matti Breschel, someone who has proven abilities in a sprint. Like Petacchi and Eisel, Breschel’s a bit of a long shot, but surprises have happened here before.
Maxim Iglinski & Enrico Gasparotto - Don’t be fooled into thinking Astana’s a one-trick pony. They have men not named “Alberto” who have scored wins so far this season and the team has ridden aggressively in every race it has entered. Two riders deserve mention as outside favorites for Milan-San Remo: Maxim Iglinsky and Enrico Gasparotto. Iglinsky won this year’s L’Eroica, Italy’s version of Paris-Roubaix, and Gasparotto won a stage in Tirreno-Adriatico. A win in San Remo would certainly be a surprise—but then again, stranger things have happened.
Mattia Gavazzi & Sacha Modolo – Colnago’s talented pair of sprinters scored some top finishes in Tirreno, look for one of them in the top-10 on Saturday, particularly if other riders sit-up once they feel they’re out of contention. These aren’t necessarily riders worth placing bets on, but when you’re on the Sunday group ride, you can say you weren’t surprised to see them in the front.
Stefano Garzelli & Michele Scarponi – It’s been a while since we saw an attack from the Poggio survive to the finish, but if it were to happen this year, I expect one or both of the top-2 men from Tirreno to be involved. Their teams don’t possess the sprint strength of other contenders and they’ll have free rein to try their hand in a breakaway. In Italy’s most important one-day race, look for both to attack in front of their home audience.
Final Prediction?
Certain races start to follow scripts over time, and Milan-San Remo’s proven no different over the past decade. This year I think we’ll see a race similar to 2009, but with different players in the leading roles. I think Boasson Hagen will play Heinrich Haussler, perhaps trying a last-second move rather than take his chance against a large group of field sprinters. Like Haussler last year, he’ll be caught just before the line—by Tom Boonen. Tyler Farrar will take advantage of the chaos to take third, taking Hushovd’s place from last year.
As for Pippo Pozzato, I think he’ll descend the Poggio with the leaders, but might not feel comfortable taking chances to take the victory. They’ll be too many riders, and he’ll perhaps be isolated or poorly positioned coming off the Poggio. In the end he’ll play it safe, lest he risk his chances in the cobbled classics still to come.
So that’s my Top-3: Boonen gets the win over Hagen and Farrar.
What about you? Who are your picks for tomorrow? Share them below.
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