Here's the third installment of Pavé's 2010 Tour de France Preview. I'll wrap things up tomorrow with the final installment, and then present some interesting questions to be answered during this year's Tour on Friday. In case you missed them, here are links to Part 1 and Part 2 of the Preview. As always, share your comments and insights below.
Lampre-Farnese Vini
Damiano Cunego, Alessandro Petacchi, and 5 riders making their Tour debuts is hardly a roster to strike fear into the opposition, but that’s what Lampre brings to this year’s Tour de France. For a team that received almost as much criticism as Footon-Servetto for its inclusion, Lampre doesn’t seem too concerned with proving critics wrong.
After a relatively anonymous spring and a less-than-stellar Giro d’Italia, Cunego needs to do something—and soon—lest he risk losing money on the transfer market this off-season. He showed flashes of brilliance at this year’s Giro; unfortunately his good rides were often followed by rides equally as bad. He comes to this year’s Tour in search of a stage win or two, and perhaps a top-15 finish in the GC. Stick to stage wins, Damiano—start with Stage 2 through the Ardennes.
As for Petacchi, he’s clearly outclassed in anything other than regional Italian races. He won Stage 4 in Switzerland simply by virtue of the fact that he remained upright following a major crash, but that’s hardly an indicator of Tour field sprint success.
As for the rest, there’s always a chance for a stage win from a break or two—Simon Spilak’s a handy opportunist to have around and Grega Bole won a small field sprint in the Dauphiné. If Cunego and Petacchi falter, it’s up to a member of Lampre’s supporting cast to take center stage.
Man of the Hour: Damiano Cunego’s been hunting for a major result since last season when he failed in the spring classics, the Giro, the Tour, Worlds, and the fall classics. Were it not for two wins in the Vuelta, the Italian’s season would have been a complete wash. Time to shine, Damiano—there’s millions waiting for you this off-season if you do.
On the Hot Seat: Giuseppe Saronni has a lot of explaining to do. He lost some of his best riders this past off-season and replaced them with aging stars and unknown rookies. Rumors are already swirling that his last marketable asset—Damiano Cunego—is about to leave as well. With few important wins and a potentially deserted roster, Saronni’s sponsors can’t be happy.
Up-and-Comer: Simon Spilak won this May’s Tour of Romandie following the disqulification of Alejandro Valverde. A young, talented all-rounder, Spilak gets his second Tour start this year. Don’t be surprised if he’s the only Lampre rider to take a win.
Just Happy to Be There: Grega Bole, Mauro Da Dalto, Francesco Gavazzi, Mirco Lorenzetto and Adriano Malori are all making their Tour debuts this summer. Forza, ragazzi!
Feeling Left Out: The entire team in 2011—if they don’t perform in 2010.
Liquigas
In my humble opinion, Liquigas is one of the more intriguing teams in this year’s Tour de France. Ivan Basso won his second Giro d’Italia this May, topping-off one of the most fantastic post-suspension comebacks the sport has ever seen. Basso raced with grinta and determination, never wavering as he clawed back from a several-minute deficit to take the lead just before the final weekend.
Now he comes to the Tour, with aspirations to become the first person since Marco Pantani to win the Giro and the Tour in the same year. Can he do it? I discounted Basso’s chances to win the Giro, considering him too old and far removed from his prime to win a grand tour—he proved me wrong. As for the Tour, while I don’t consider him one of the top 2 or 3 contenders, I will not be surprised to see him take the win—especially if the main favorites make the same mistake I did before the Giro.
Remember, no one thought Pantani would win the Tour in 1998—especially over a seemingly dominant Jan Ullrich. And were you just a little surprised when Carlos Sastre rode away on Alpe d’Huez to take the win in 2008? Anything’s possible.
The biggest thing going for Basso is the layout of this year’s race. Basso rode himself into shape throughout the Giro, peaking during what was an impossibly tough third week. This year’s Tour de
France follows a similar pattern, slowly building week-to-week to a Pyrenean crescendo. Except for Saturday’s Italian championship, Basso hasn’t raced since May—making a steady progression through the Tour even more important—and probable. If he manages to pull it off, Basso’s ride will go down in history as one of the Tour’s most legendary performances.
As for the rest of the squad, don’t discount Roman Kreuziger either—a man with his own Tour aspirations. Kreuziger seems to have dialed-in his preparation this season, laying all of his cards on the table for the Tour. A talented climber and able time trialist, Kreuziger is the most talented of the young men expected to challenge for Tour supremacy throughout the next decade. Should Basso prove fallible, Kreuziger could be the man for Liquigas.
Man of the Hour: Basso. The competition will be fierce, but this might be his last and best chance for yellow.
On the Hot Seat: No one, actually. Liquigas has had a relatively perfect season so far, winning the Giro with several stage wins to boot. A top-5 finish in the Tour along with a stage win or two would be a welcome sight, but for now, Liquigas can ride a pressure-free race—a bad sign for the competition.
Up-and-Comer: Kreuziger’s barely 24 and already he’s finished 13th and 9th in the Tour de France. Should he continue his ascension toward the podium—perhaps even landing on it—look for him to be one of the most sought-after commodities in this off-season’s transfer market.
Just Happy to be There: If you have some time—and can tolerate Google translator—take a trip over Sylvester Szmyd’s blog. It’s casual, thoughtful, and offers a pleasant look into the mind of one of the peloton’s most underrated talents. This won’t be his first Tour—or his last—but Szmyd seems to epitomize someone who’s just happy to be there.
Feeling Left Out: Remember when Daniele Bennati was everyone’s pick to be the next great Italian sprinter? He won two stages in 2007—none since. While he be feeling left out, it’s easy to see why.
Omega Pharma – Lotto
Gone are the days when Lotto came to the Tour with split sprint/GC ambitions. With inconsistent Aussies Robbie McEwen and Cadel Evans elsewhere, and classics men Philippe Gilbert, Leif Hoste, and Greg Van Avermaet staying home, this year’s Lotto squad belongs to one man: Jurgen Van den Broeck.
Who?
Yup, the man I’ve come to call “VDB2” has earned the right to have a full team supporting his chances in this year’s Tour—and he’s done it fair and square. VDB2 first showed his grand tour talents by finishing seventh in the 2008 Giro d’Italia after several strong performances in the mountains. The effort earned the Belgian a spot in last year’s Tour, riding as a lieutenant for Cadel Evans. Evans quickly proved the weaker of the two though, ultimately surrendering his captaincy by the final week of the race. VDB2 would go on finish the Tour 15th overall, a deceiving result considering his earlier sacrifices.
This season, Van den Broeck rode brilliantly in support of Gilbert in the Ardennes classics, covering moves and driving the chase group to essentially hand Gilbert the Amstel Gold Race on a platter. He then finished 4th in the Dauphiné, beaten by two men peaking for the race itself—Janez Brajkovic and Tejay Vangarderen—and the man who is perhaps the best stage racer in the world—Alberto Contador.
If VDB2 has indeed saved his best form for July, a stunning result is possible—maybe even one inside the top-5. Heck, most of Belgium would settle for a top-10, considering it’s been ages since they’ve had a legitimate contender for the Tour’s GC. With a solid team of climbers, rouleurs, and domestiques, there’s nothing to prevent Van den Broeck from making his country proud.
Man of the Hour: Van den Broeck.
On the Hot Seat: Van den Broeck will be if he fails to deliver under such favorable cicumstances. Belgian fans can be so fickle.
Up-and-Comer: Like VDB2, Matt Lloyd is riding his second Tour this year as well. After a stage win and the climber’s jersey at the Giro, his stock is rising.
Just Happy to Be There: Considering how Lotto left just about every other classics rider off the Tour squad, Jurgen Roelandts has to be grateful to have been given a shot at the Tour. Maybe he would have preferred a vacation, but a grand tour might help the youngster’s progression for next year’s classics.
Feeling Left Out: I have a feeling Greg Van Avermaet was hoping for a chance at a stage win in this year’s Tour. One of the more disappointing Belgians of the past two seasons, it was beginning to look in June as if Van Avermaet was—finally—hitting his stride. Looks like he’ll have to be content with another Vuelta.
Quick Step
Quick Step can’t seem to catch a break. Last year Tom Boonen was almost disqualified before the Tour even started thanks to another cocaine offense. He received a last-minute reprieve, but failed to deliver after his team went to great lengths to get him to the line.
Fast forward a year and Boonen has already been ruled-out from racing thanks to the knee injury he received in a crash at the end of Stage 1 of the Tour of California. Even worse, his initial replacement, Giro stage-winner Wouter Weylandt, has been ruled ineligible since we wasn’t on the official 15-rider pre-selection list Quick Step sent to the race organization weeks ago. After all was said and done, the rider finally chosen to take Tom Boonen’s is probably the last rider on the list anyone ever thought would have to ride—Italian Francesco Reda.
Without Boonen, Quick Step closely resembles a French squad with several opportunists hunting for stage wins, a young rider or two hoping for a good GC showing, and a few soon to be washed-up veterans looking for one last chance to shine. Carlos Barredo and Sylvain Chavanel are the cream of the crop. Barredo came close to winning a stage last year before winning the Clasica San Sebastian soon after the Tour ended. Chavanel’s been rather disappointing so far this season—he’s certainly hoping to add another stage win to the one he took in 2008. Frenchman Jérome Pineau won a stage at this year’s Giro; a stage victory in his home tour would be a welcome addition to his résumé.
And that’s about it for Quick Step—not much to get excited about considering this team might have contended for the green jersey had its star been healthy enough to take part.
Man of the Hour: Barredo, Chavanel, and Pineau will take turns trying to take stages. Chavanel might make a go of it as early as Stage 3.
On the Hot Seat: For a Belgian super-team, getting shut-out of the classics is an incredibly worrisome situation. Two stage wins in the Giro were nice, but the team needs some Tour success if it wishes to regain credibility with its fans.
Up-and-Comer: Boonen’s absence might be the best thing for young Kevin Seeldraeyers, the winner of the white jersey as Best Young Rider in last year’s Giro d’Italia. Without the pressure of setting things up for field sprints, Seeldrayers can relax during the first week, doing his best to stay out of trouble. Will the 23-year-old join Jurgen Van den Broeck to form a new generation of Belgian Tour contenders?
Just Happy to Be There: Franceso Reda’s the obvious choice, but how about Eddy Merckx bicycles? Yes, Merckx himself has little to do with the company and the quality is rumored to be not what it once was, but it’s still nice to see the brand back in the Tour.
Feeling Left Out: I’m having a tough time wrapping my head around how and why it happened, but Stijn Devolder will be missed as Belgian national champion. The Tour’s always a better race with more national champions’ jerseys represented, but Devolder’s absence will be particularly missed on the stages through Belgium. At first it seemed as if Devolder was left off by management; then it appeared that Devolder himself had passed on the opportunity. Whatever the reason, it spells the beginning—or maybe the middle actually—of the end for the Belgian’s affiliation with Quick Step.
Rabobank
Denis Menchov, Robert Gesink, and Oscar Freire are the three Rabobank riders we can expect to hear the most from in this Tour de France.
Menchov skipped a chance to defend his title at the Giro this year, choosing instead to focus on adding the only grand tour he has yet to win to his palmares. As far as his chances go, your guesses are as good as mine. A natural grand tour rider, Menchov possesses the rare mix of climbing and time trialing so rarely seen nowadays. When in-shape and confident, he’s one of the best riders in the world. Unfortunately, Menchov’s also prone to crashing, something that makes him a bit suspect in a Tour beginning in Holland and passing over the pavé on its way to France.
Perhaps even more talented—at going uphill at least—than Menchov, Robert Gesink hopes to finally finish the Tour de France after an early exit last year. Like his Russian teammate, Gesink is a rider known for being a bit squirrely at times—a crash being the reason he left last year’s Tour. But a bigger liability for Gesink—as was so spectacularly illustrated at this year’s Tour de Suisse—is his inability to time trial. While Gesink is still young and has plenty of time to improve against the clock, losing a stage race to Frank Schleck in a time trial is certainly cause for concern. Until he fixes the problem, he’ll remain nothing more than a candidate for mountain stage wins, the polka dot jersey, and the lower half of the top-10.
As for Freire, he keeps coming back for more—and winning. After winning a stage and the green jersey in 2008, Freire was shut-out last year. But as he showed with his third win in Milan-San Remo earlier this season, Oscar’s not someone to ignore.
And by the way, Lars Boom could win the Prologue, so put your money down now.
Man of the Hour: Menchov’s wagered the first half of his season on success in France.
On the Hot Seat: This spot could be Menchov’s if he fails to deliver. That said, the man’s won three grand tours; he’s earned a bit of patience.
Up-and-Comer: Gesink’s an easy pick, but he’s been “up and coming” for so long now that it hardly seems fair to keep mentioning him. I’m eager to see what Lars Boom does in his first Tour. He might be a better pick than Gesink for Tour GC success a few years from now—especially since he can actually time trial. In fact, Boom’s a good outside bet to win the Prologue, so put your money down now.
Just Happy to There: There were few surprises in Rabobank’s Tour selection this year. Aside from some last minute crash replacements, everyone’s preparation has more or less gone as planned.
Feeling Left Out: Laurens Ten Dam fell heavily during the Tour de Suisse, suffering several serious injuries to keep him from riding this year’s Tour. A consummate professional and a seemingly fearless rider, Ten Dam’s presence in the mountains—the uphill part of them at least—will be missed by his team and its fans. Get well soon, Laurens!
And that’s it for Part 3 of Pavé’s 2010 Tour de France Preview. Be sure to share your comments and feedback below—and come back tomorrow for the fourth and final part of the series!
Showing posts with label liquigas. Show all posts
Showing posts with label liquigas. Show all posts
Wednesday, June 30, 2010
Tuesday, June 1, 2010
Monday Musette - Giro, Belgium, Motors, Etc...
Yesterday was Memorial Day—the unofficial first day of summer—and I took advantage of a day-off from work to indulge--and ride. Here’s this week’s Musette.
1. It’s hard to believe this year’s Giro has come and gone—but it has. Credit Ivan Basso for quickly one-upping Alexander Vinokourov’s win in L-B-L with a grand tour win following his 2-year suspension—I’ll admit I was surprised. Before the race, things looked a bit dire for Liquigas. Franco Pellizotti was suspended, Nibali was a last-minute addition, and Basso was admittedly a bit behind in his preparation. In hindsight, everything worked-out perfectly for the men in green: Nibali was a perfect lieutenant, and Basso was able to ride himself into winning-form by the time the race entered its final, difficult week. Even better, he was able to do so confident in the knowledge that he was his team’s undisputed leader.
Now the big question for Liquigas is Vincenzo Nibali. Will he recover from his 3rd-place in time for another top performance in the Tour; or will his efforts have relegated him to uber-lieutenant to Roman Kreuziger. Time will tell, but I’m hopeful Nibali can rebound in time to give Italy a legitimate podium contender in July.
As for David Arroyo, he did everything he needed to in order to defend his spot on the final podium—too bad the achievement was overshadowed by the suspension of his teammate.
2. Cadel Evans once again fell short of winning a grand tour. While I thought he had the confidence and the fitness to win the race, it’s now obvious that Evans is more suited to one-day classics and short stage races. Still, I think he might have one last chance for grand tour glory at this year’s Vuelta.
Were I running BMC, I’d send him to the Dauphiné—aside from a certain Spaniard, there’s a relatively weak field competing and he Evans take an important victory. Then I would rest him during the Tour or send him only for training and stage wins. Following a post-Tour vacation, he can then build for the Vuelta—a race he can win without Valverde taking part—and Worlds in Australia.
It’s a pretty straightforward plan, but it hinges upon one minor concept: relinquishing the Tour dream. Cadel’s still at the peak of his career—how long can he continue to waste time chasing races he has virtually no shot of winning?
3. In other national tour news, bad weather and a puncture kept Philippe Gilbert from winning the Tour of Belgium. Imagine that! Bad weather and punctures in Belgium?
4. Speaking of the ToB, Stijn Devolder took the overall win—maybe his time in the wind tunnel made a difference. I wonder if his win—plus a possible second Belgian Championship—will be enough for him to keep his spot with Quick Step. Then again, does he even want a spot with Quick Step?
5. In other racing news, the Tour of Luxembourg begins tomorrow, marking Lance Armstrong’s return to racing following his (un)timely crash in the Tour of California. Lance is quickly running out of time for peak Tour fitness. Luxembourg and Switzerland are his last two dates before July. My money’s on Frank Schleck, Andreas Kloden, and Giovanni Visconti to constitute the top-3.
6. Did you see that BMC’s Alessandro Ballan’s snuck onto the early start list for the Tour of Switzerland? Did I miss something?
7. I sometimes have a tough time explaining the difference between irony and coincidence to high school students. So I leave this one up to you: was the timing of Valverde’s suspension announcement ironic or coincidental? Discuss.
8. And by the way, I was only kidding when I hinted about it last week, but apparently some have taken the ball and started running with the motorized doping/boosting/cheating story—the conspiracy theory seems to be gaining momentum. Here’s a handy video that explains everything you need to know:
Would Davide Cassani have been so quick to throw stones had Pozzato won a cobbled monument? Regardless, it’s a spooky concept. I look forward to seeing what the UCI does to combat the threat—I bet it’s hilarious!
9. In related news, I’m pleased to announce that Pavé has become the official US importer for the Gruber Assist. (There’s something about a goat with wings that I think will look swell on our next jersey.)
Enjoy your week!
Share your comments below.
1. It’s hard to believe this year’s Giro has come and gone—but it has. Credit Ivan Basso for quickly one-upping Alexander Vinokourov’s win in L-B-L with a grand tour win following his 2-year suspension—I’ll admit I was surprised. Before the race, things looked a bit dire for Liquigas. Franco Pellizotti was suspended, Nibali was a last-minute addition, and Basso was admittedly a bit behind in his preparation. In hindsight, everything worked-out perfectly for the men in green: Nibali was a perfect lieutenant, and Basso was able to ride himself into winning-form by the time the race entered its final, difficult week. Even better, he was able to do so confident in the knowledge that he was his team’s undisputed leader.
Now the big question for Liquigas is Vincenzo Nibali. Will he recover from his 3rd-place in time for another top performance in the Tour; or will his efforts have relegated him to uber-lieutenant to Roman Kreuziger. Time will tell, but I’m hopeful Nibali can rebound in time to give Italy a legitimate podium contender in July.
As for David Arroyo, he did everything he needed to in order to defend his spot on the final podium—too bad the achievement was overshadowed by the suspension of his teammate.
2. Cadel Evans once again fell short of winning a grand tour. While I thought he had the confidence and the fitness to win the race, it’s now obvious that Evans is more suited to one-day classics and short stage races. Still, I think he might have one last chance for grand tour glory at this year’s Vuelta.
Were I running BMC, I’d send him to the Dauphiné—aside from a certain Spaniard, there’s a relatively weak field competing and he Evans take an important victory. Then I would rest him during the Tour or send him only for training and stage wins. Following a post-Tour vacation, he can then build for the Vuelta—a race he can win without Valverde taking part—and Worlds in Australia.
It’s a pretty straightforward plan, but it hinges upon one minor concept: relinquishing the Tour dream. Cadel’s still at the peak of his career—how long can he continue to waste time chasing races he has virtually no shot of winning?
3. In other national tour news, bad weather and a puncture kept Philippe Gilbert from winning the Tour of Belgium. Imagine that! Bad weather and punctures in Belgium?
4. Speaking of the ToB, Stijn Devolder took the overall win—maybe his time in the wind tunnel made a difference. I wonder if his win—plus a possible second Belgian Championship—will be enough for him to keep his spot with Quick Step. Then again, does he even want a spot with Quick Step?
5. In other racing news, the Tour of Luxembourg begins tomorrow, marking Lance Armstrong’s return to racing following his (un)timely crash in the Tour of California. Lance is quickly running out of time for peak Tour fitness. Luxembourg and Switzerland are his last two dates before July. My money’s on Frank Schleck, Andreas Kloden, and Giovanni Visconti to constitute the top-3.
6. Did you see that BMC’s Alessandro Ballan’s snuck onto the early start list for the Tour of Switzerland? Did I miss something?
7. I sometimes have a tough time explaining the difference between irony and coincidence to high school students. So I leave this one up to you: was the timing of Valverde’s suspension announcement ironic or coincidental? Discuss.
8. And by the way, I was only kidding when I hinted about it last week, but apparently some have taken the ball and started running with the motorized doping/boosting/cheating story—the conspiracy theory seems to be gaining momentum. Here’s a handy video that explains everything you need to know:
Would Davide Cassani have been so quick to throw stones had Pozzato won a cobbled monument? Regardless, it’s a spooky concept. I look forward to seeing what the UCI does to combat the threat—I bet it’s hilarious!
9. In related news, I’m pleased to announce that Pavé has become the official US importer for the Gruber Assist. (There’s something about a goat with wings that I think will look swell on our next jersey.)
Enjoy your week!
Share your comments below.
Monday, March 22, 2010
Monday Musette - Milan-San Remo Wrap-up
Saturday’s Milan-San Remo went-off without a hitch--despite the weather’s best attempts to ruin the day. After 298 kilometers of racing in cold, rainy conditions, it was a Spaniard who ended-up with the victory. Funny how two men from warmer, sunnier climates have taken wins in two of the season’s grimiest races thus far. Here’s what we learned:
1. I remember watching the 1999 World Championship Road Race in Verona, Italy with friends on a television in my apartment in Leuven, Belgium. When a young, unknown Spaniard surprised a select group of favorites including Francesco Casagrande, Frank Vandenbroucke, and Jan Ullrich, we all felt a bit ripped-off. But after 2 more World Titles, 7 Vuelta stage wins, 4 Tour stage wins, 1 Ghent-Wevelgem, and now 3 Milan-San Remo’s I think it’s time for me to officially apologize to Oscar Freire for years of underrating him. With the changes to this year’s Belgian calendar, Freire has a terrific opportunity to take yet another win in Sunday’s Ghent-Wevelgem—especially since many of his main rivals might choose to take Saturday’s E3 Prijs more seriously. Congratulations, Oscar. I won’t overlook you again—at least for one more week.
2. Tom Boonen was satisfied with a respectable 2nd place in San Remo—even though Freire blew his doors off in the sprint. What impressed me most was Boonen’s positioning on the Cipressa and Poggio—he rode attentively and comfortably at the front of the peloton, consistently placed within the first 10 or so riders. Clearly his form for Flanders and Roubaix has arrived. Unfortunately, I wonder if he might find himself too heavily marked in Flanders to take a third win. On the other hand, it’s essentially every man for himself on the pavé of Paris-Roubaix—at this point only Pozzato, Hushovd, and Cancellara look to have the condition to ride with him there. Then again, those races are still 2 and 3 weeks away—maybe it’s too soon to speculate?
3. As for Pippo Pozzato, he seemed to ride as if he had read the “This will come down to a sprint” writing on the wall. Knowing he had relatively little chances against sprinters such as Freire, Boonen, Bennati, and Hushovd, he seemed content to treat the race’s finale as an opportunity to test his legs on the attack. To be honest, when he rolled-off the front in pursuit of Vincenzo Nibali with 2km to go, I thought he would take his second victory—too bad the rest had other things in mind. At Flanders though, they might find catching up to Pozzato an entirely different enterprise.
4. And speaking of Hushovd, he made the leading group, ultimately sprinting to a slid 6th-place finish. With Flanders and Roubaix still weeks away, Thor looks to have starting his crescendo at just the right time. Unfortunately, it was also announced that he won’t have the support of Heinrich Haussler; his knee injury seems to be worse than expected, keeping out of races until later this spring.
5. Philippe Gilbert’s attack on the Poggio and subsequent 9th place finish confirmed his candidacy for a win in Flanders—Roubaix’s not very suited to his strengths. While his attack had little effect on the race itself, it served noticed to everyone—including the Belgian press—that he’s not to be overlooked.
6. And finally, we must mention Fabian Cancellara, another rider who led a quiet build-up to Saturday’s race. Spartacus rode comfortably with the lead group, finishing the day in 17th place. Like Hushovd, he appears on-track for a solid cobbled campaign.
7. Moving away from the pre-race favorites, Quick Step’s Sylvain Chavanel looks to be peaking quite nicely. If Boonen finds himself too heavily marked, Chavanel could play Devolder’s role in Flanders, possibly getting the win we all know he deserves. Regardless, his condition means teams will have two Quick Step riders with which to contend; an advantage few teams are able to match.
8. BMC’s Marcus Burghardt was his team’s only rider to finish with the leaders. As he seems to be peaking a bit sooner than his teammates Ballan and Hincapie (both of whom came in with the second group, 1:40 behind), look for him to impress this Sunday in Ghent-Wevelgem, a race he won in 2007. The German has also recorded top-5 finishes in both Dwars door Vlaanderen and the E3 Prijs in the past—it’s a shame they weren’t invited to Dwars, but it still could be a good weekend for the squad.
9. As we expected, Colnago’s Sacha Modolo finishing 4th on Saturday, continuing his string of top results from Tirreno-Adriatico. I know it’s a bit early to talk transfers, but look for him to be snapped-up by a team with an aging sprinter before next season—Lampre and Katusha might be possibilities—especially if he manages to grab a stage win or two in this year’s Giro.
10. Liquigas rode a fantastic race for Daniele Bennati with Vincenzo Nibali and Roman Kreuziger playing roles as prominent as we expected. Unfortunately, Bennati could manage no better than 5th. Clearly he’s a second-tier field sprinter, able to win only when better, faster competition is absent. Stick to Tirreno, DePanne, and the Vuelta, my friend. And by the way, give Liquigas the first “What Were They Thinking?” Award of 2010 for leaving Peter Sagan—a double stage-winner in Paris-Nice—at home.
11. Unfortunately, Tyler Farrar’s performance Saturday might put him in the same category as Bennati—although Bennati made it to the finish with the lead group. If Farrar’s team can’t position him well in a finale as straightforward as Milan-San Remo’s then what will they do in the cobbled classics, races with much more difficult profiles?
Two final thoughts from Saturday:
12. What the heck was Stefano Garzelli doing on the Poggio? Several sources claimed he attacked, but in my opinion he simply set a hard pace—but for whom?
13. Did you notice the prevalence of super-deep carbon fiber rear wheels? If this is indeed a new trend, I don’t get it. But I’m like that.
Time permitting, I’ve got a big week planned for Pavé. Here’s the schedule for the next several days:
Tuesday: Dwars Door Vlaanderen Preview
Wednesday: 5 Questions for the Cobbled Classics
Thursday: Dwars Door Vlaanderen Wrap-up/What We Learned
Friday: Weekend Preview(s) E3 and Criterium International
Saturday: Ghent-Wevelgem Preview
It’s an ambitious program, but I think I’m up for it—at least I hope so.
Thanks for reading! Share your comments below
1. I remember watching the 1999 World Championship Road Race in Verona, Italy with friends on a television in my apartment in Leuven, Belgium. When a young, unknown Spaniard surprised a select group of favorites including Francesco Casagrande, Frank Vandenbroucke, and Jan Ullrich, we all felt a bit ripped-off. But after 2 more World Titles, 7 Vuelta stage wins, 4 Tour stage wins, 1 Ghent-Wevelgem, and now 3 Milan-San Remo’s I think it’s time for me to officially apologize to Oscar Freire for years of underrating him. With the changes to this year’s Belgian calendar, Freire has a terrific opportunity to take yet another win in Sunday’s Ghent-Wevelgem—especially since many of his main rivals might choose to take Saturday’s E3 Prijs more seriously. Congratulations, Oscar. I won’t overlook you again—at least for one more week.
2. Tom Boonen was satisfied with a respectable 2nd place in San Remo—even though Freire blew his doors off in the sprint. What impressed me most was Boonen’s positioning on the Cipressa and Poggio—he rode attentively and comfortably at the front of the peloton, consistently placed within the first 10 or so riders. Clearly his form for Flanders and Roubaix has arrived. Unfortunately, I wonder if he might find himself too heavily marked in Flanders to take a third win. On the other hand, it’s essentially every man for himself on the pavé of Paris-Roubaix—at this point only Pozzato, Hushovd, and Cancellara look to have the condition to ride with him there. Then again, those races are still 2 and 3 weeks away—maybe it’s too soon to speculate?
3. As for Pippo Pozzato, he seemed to ride as if he had read the “This will come down to a sprint” writing on the wall. Knowing he had relatively little chances against sprinters such as Freire, Boonen, Bennati, and Hushovd, he seemed content to treat the race’s finale as an opportunity to test his legs on the attack. To be honest, when he rolled-off the front in pursuit of Vincenzo Nibali with 2km to go, I thought he would take his second victory—too bad the rest had other things in mind. At Flanders though, they might find catching up to Pozzato an entirely different enterprise.
4. And speaking of Hushovd, he made the leading group, ultimately sprinting to a slid 6th-place finish. With Flanders and Roubaix still weeks away, Thor looks to have starting his crescendo at just the right time. Unfortunately, it was also announced that he won’t have the support of Heinrich Haussler; his knee injury seems to be worse than expected, keeping out of races until later this spring.
5. Philippe Gilbert’s attack on the Poggio and subsequent 9th place finish confirmed his candidacy for a win in Flanders—Roubaix’s not very suited to his strengths. While his attack had little effect on the race itself, it served noticed to everyone—including the Belgian press—that he’s not to be overlooked.
6. And finally, we must mention Fabian Cancellara, another rider who led a quiet build-up to Saturday’s race. Spartacus rode comfortably with the lead group, finishing the day in 17th place. Like Hushovd, he appears on-track for a solid cobbled campaign.
7. Moving away from the pre-race favorites, Quick Step’s Sylvain Chavanel looks to be peaking quite nicely. If Boonen finds himself too heavily marked, Chavanel could play Devolder’s role in Flanders, possibly getting the win we all know he deserves. Regardless, his condition means teams will have two Quick Step riders with which to contend; an advantage few teams are able to match.
8. BMC’s Marcus Burghardt was his team’s only rider to finish with the leaders. As he seems to be peaking a bit sooner than his teammates Ballan and Hincapie (both of whom came in with the second group, 1:40 behind), look for him to impress this Sunday in Ghent-Wevelgem, a race he won in 2007. The German has also recorded top-5 finishes in both Dwars door Vlaanderen and the E3 Prijs in the past—it’s a shame they weren’t invited to Dwars, but it still could be a good weekend for the squad.
9. As we expected, Colnago’s Sacha Modolo finishing 4th on Saturday, continuing his string of top results from Tirreno-Adriatico. I know it’s a bit early to talk transfers, but look for him to be snapped-up by a team with an aging sprinter before next season—Lampre and Katusha might be possibilities—especially if he manages to grab a stage win or two in this year’s Giro.
10. Liquigas rode a fantastic race for Daniele Bennati with Vincenzo Nibali and Roman Kreuziger playing roles as prominent as we expected. Unfortunately, Bennati could manage no better than 5th. Clearly he’s a second-tier field sprinter, able to win only when better, faster competition is absent. Stick to Tirreno, DePanne, and the Vuelta, my friend. And by the way, give Liquigas the first “What Were They Thinking?” Award of 2010 for leaving Peter Sagan—a double stage-winner in Paris-Nice—at home.
11. Unfortunately, Tyler Farrar’s performance Saturday might put him in the same category as Bennati—although Bennati made it to the finish with the lead group. If Farrar’s team can’t position him well in a finale as straightforward as Milan-San Remo’s then what will they do in the cobbled classics, races with much more difficult profiles?
Two final thoughts from Saturday:
12. What the heck was Stefano Garzelli doing on the Poggio? Several sources claimed he attacked, but in my opinion he simply set a hard pace—but for whom?
13. Did you notice the prevalence of super-deep carbon fiber rear wheels? If this is indeed a new trend, I don’t get it. But I’m like that.
Time permitting, I’ve got a big week planned for Pavé. Here’s the schedule for the next several days:
Tuesday: Dwars Door Vlaanderen Preview
Wednesday: 5 Questions for the Cobbled Classics
Thursday: Dwars Door Vlaanderen Wrap-up/What We Learned
Friday: Weekend Preview(s) E3 and Criterium International
Saturday: Ghent-Wevelgem Preview
It’s an ambitious program, but I think I’m up for it—at least I hope so.
Thanks for reading! Share your comments below
Thursday, February 25, 2010
Pavé's 2010 Season Preview - Part 4 (Teams 5-1)
Here are the Top-5 teams in Pavé's Top-5 teams of 2010. Share your comments below and thanks for reading!
#5 – BMC
The new-and-improved BMC is the first of 2 Professional Continental teams in the Top-5, proof that a Pro Tour license isn’t the only key to success. Jim Ochowicz must have had quite a bit of fun signing the likes of Alessandro Ballan, Marcus Burghardt, Karsten Kroon, George Hincapie, and—just when we all thought the roster was complete—the newly-crowned World Champion, Cadel Evans. While they’re shy to admit it, the signing of Evans gave BMC the final piece they needed to most likely earn an invite to the 2010 Tour.
Regardless, the team is wise to take nothing for granted, planning the first half of its season around the classics and the Giro. Between them, BMC’s new men have all scored top-10 results in all major classics. Burghardt’s a threat in Ghent-Wevelgem and Flanders; Hincapie in Ghent, Flanders, and Roubaix; Ballan in Flanders and Roubaix; Kroon in Amstel; and of course, Evans in the Ardennes. If BMC plans wisely, they could certainly prove to be one of the sport’s most dominant teams from March through April.
After the Ardennes, the focus shifts to the Giro, where Cadel Evans will make another attempt at scoring a win in a Grand Tour. The Giro is a fitting choice, as it’s the place where Cadel first burst onto the Grand Tour scene with Mapei in 2002. He held the Pink Jersey for a day before cracking to finish 14th overall behind Paolo Salvodelli. Evans returns this year, hoping to shrug-off the bad luck he’s displayed in past Grand Tour attempts. While Cuddles is a bit temperamental, I think his Worlds win could be the beginning of a new phase in his career, perhaps instilling the confidence he seems to have lacked in years past. Who knows, maybe he wins the Giro, and then goes to the Tour relaxed and riding high.
The knock against BMC is chemistry. Only Burghardt and Hincapie raced together last season; otherwise everyone comes from a team in which he was more or less an undisputed leader. Will Ballan defer to Hincapie in Roubaix? Will Kroon defer to Evans in Amstel? If everyone peaks at the same time, these are questions that will need to be answered—and not on the road.
Man of the Hour: Cadel Evans won Worlds last year, a victory that moved him from a place on someone’s Hot Seat, to BMC’s Man of the Hour. Hopefully Cadel uses the win as stepping-stone to bigger things. Liege? The Giro? The Tour?
On the Hot Seat: George Hincapie’s running out of time for what would certainly be a career-topping win in Paris-Roubaix. He’s 37, and luckily Roubaix’s one race where age is less of a factor—especially since George’s age comes with the benefit of many years of experience on the pavé. With Burghardt and Ballan at his side, BMC has a team of Quick Step’s caliber, the one thing George has lacked in his past attempts. Clearly, this is George’s best chance yet.
Up-and-Comer: BMC’s perhaps the most up-and-coming squad in the entire sport—hopefully they’ll win enough to justify the distinction.
Best Pick-up: The signings of Evans, Hincapie, and Ballan received more press, but Marcus Burghardt might actually win the most races for BMC, possibly beginning this Saturday in the Omloop.
Biggest Loss: As a squad relatively new to the sport’s upper echelon, BMC’s gained more than it’s lost. We’ll have to revisit this one next year.
#4 – Liquigas
Liquigas has perhaps the youngest and deepest Grand Tour squad in the sport, led by the Four Horsemen of the Green-pocalypse (yes, I made that up myself): Ivan Basso, Franco Pellizotti, Roman Kreuziger, and Vincenzo Nibali. In a way, Liquigas finds itself in a siutution akin to BMC in that its only problem will be sorting-out who’s leading the team in which races. Luckily for them, I have some suggestions:
1. Roman Kreuziger began to show himself as a talented one-day rider in the second half of 2009, nearly winning the Clasica San Sebastien and a stage in the Vuelta. If I were Roberto Amadio, I’d set Roman’s sights on the Ardennes, a goal only a week or two earlier than the Tour of Romandy—a race he won last year. Then I’d send him to the Giro as co-captain with Pellizotti. Maybe he takes the line at the Tour, but otherwise he races the Vuelta and Lombardy.
2. Ivan Basso’s best days might be behind him; now he’s best served as a super-domestique, perhaps riding for one of the other three. I’d have him peak for the Tour, but with the understanding that he’s not the leader—he’ll be there to ride for Vincezo Nibali, a rider whose Tour prospects are headed in a direction opposite his.
3. As for Pellizotti, he’s a talented climber, but not a leader for a Grand Tour. Time trialing is a big weakness, and his best results have come on days when he’s played more the role of the joker than the ace. Like he did in 2009, I’d send Pellizotti to both the Giro and the Tour. In the Giro, he and Kreuziger would be formidable duo. In the Tour, he’s free to hunt for stages in support of Nibali, and perhaps another polka-dot jersey.
4. As for Nibali, it’s all or nothing in this year’s Tour. He showed the potential last year; now he needs to continue to progress. It’s shaping-up to be a difficult field, but with luck Nibali might finish in the first five.
That said, let’s not forget the rest of the squad. Manuel Quinziato and Alexander Kuschynski performed well in the cobbled classics last year; they head into 2010 looking to improve on those results. Daniele Bennati and Francesco Chicchi have both started their seasons with wins; they’ll be hunting for stage wins in the Giro and Tour, with Bennati an outside favorite in some of the flatter classics.
All in all, Liquigas is perhaps one of the most underrated teams in the sport. If their talented youngsters continue to progress, that won’t be the case for long.
Man of the Hour: Italy’s abuzz with talk about Nibali’s 7th-place finish in last year’s Tour. He did just enough to contend both in the mountains and in time trials. This year he’ll need to show considerable improvement in at least one discipline to advance a spot or two in the GC.
On the Hot Seat: Ivan Basso had a respectable return to the sport, including solid rides in the Giro and Vuelta. Unfortunately, his inability to capitalize on his team leadership in Spain leaves many wondering if he wouldn’t be better-off with a different set of goals.
Up-and-Comer: Peter Sagan’s only 19, but he’s already turned the head of Lance Armstrong following a week of aggressive riding in Australia. Sagan’s one of the riders I’ll be following in Saturday’s Omloop Het Nieuwsblad as he’s an accomplished single-day racer with a background in cyclocross. It might be too soon to tell if he’s got the goods to be a successful pro—but he’s certainly off to an auspicious start.
Best Pick-up: Liquigas had a rather quiet off-season, reinforcing its roster with a handful of neo-pros and some younger riders from other teams. One interesting note: Liquigas seems to be fond of riders from former Eastern Bloc nations, with 7 riders on the roster from Poland, Croatia, Slovakia, and the Czech Republic.
Biggest Loss: Considering the talent Liquigas was able to retain, it’s tough to say they truly “lost” anything from 2009 to 2010. In fact, with some exceptions, most of the final 5 teams in the rankings suffered few big losses—perhaps a reason why they find themselves at the top of the heap.
#3 – HTC-Columbia
Then again, maybe I spoke too soon, as HTC suffered several key losses after a fantastic 2009 season. Marcus Burghardt, George Hincapie, Edvald Boassen Hagen, Thomas Lokvist, and Kim Kirchen all left for other teams—taking the bulk of HTC’s wins from 2008 and 2009 with them.
But all is not lost, as two of the sport’s fastest talents remain with HTC: Mark Cavendish and Andre Greipel. Between the two of them, Cavendish and Greipel won 13 stages in the Giro, Tour, and Vuelta. This year, Greipel’s already off to a fantastic start, having won several races. Cavendish on the other hand, has been sick; that could hurt his repeat bid in San Remo.
As for the rest of the team, it’s still quite impressive. Tony Martin performed well during the Tour’s first half last year; he’ll return this season hoping to build on that experience. He can climb and time trial, and could quietly become someone Germany might once again be proud of. He’ll be supported by one of the peloton’s most underrated support riders, Maxime Monfort.
For the Classics, HTC might have found a future champion in Matthew Goss, a rider who showed serious potential with Saxo Bank last year. He’s joined by two other one-day talents, Martin and Peter Velits formerly of Milram. These three could form the nucleus of a talented classics squad for years to come.
All in all, while seemingly depleted, HTC’s roster is chock full of potential—especially if the younger riders begin to flourish as they step from the shadows of their former teammates.
Man of the Hour: Simply put, Mark Cavendish is a superstar. But I have a hunch Greipel will win more races and is perhaps more versatile. I wonder if the squad will prove big enough for both.
On the Hot Seat: Michael Rogers just won the Ruta del Sol, but that only adds fuel to the fire as his Grand Tour potential has been touted for years with little to show for it. Can he finally break through?
Up-and-Comer: Tony Martin’s a good pick, but I want to mention the winner of the 2009 Giro’s 8th stage, Konstantin Siutsou. Siutsou’s been on my radar since he won the “Queen” stage and overall title at the Tour of Georgia in 2008. A talented climber and time trialist, Sioutsou finished the race last year 16th overall. Will he continue to progress?
Best Pick-up: Aside from the riders pulled from other teams, Bob Stapleton also did a terrific job of pulling talent from the U23 ranks including Belgium’s Jan Ghyselinck, Australia’s Leigh Howard, and Tejay Van Garderen from the USA. Once these riders develop, more wins will come for HTC.
Biggest Loss: Boassen Hagen would have won many races; but Hincapie would have helped win even more. It means a lot when Cavendish himself expresses his appreciation for all that Hincapie did.
#2 – Cervélo Test Team
Another Professional Continental team occupies the 2nd spot in our ranking as Cervélo Test Team hopes to build on its terrific first year in the sport. While HTC might be deeper, Cervélo has a better chance of winning big races, led mainly by Heinrich Haussler, Thor Hushovd, and Carlos Sastre. Basing such a lofty ranking on 3 riders is indeed a bit risky, but these men are worthy of such high expectations.
Haussler was the revelation of last year’s spring classics, finishing 2nd in both Milan-San Remo and the Tour of Flanders. While these results were impressive, Haussler’s presence seemed to elevate Thor Hushovd, who had one his better springs with a win in Het Nieuwsblad and 3rd-places in both San Remo and Paris-Roubaix. He and Haussler complement one another well; Haussler’s attacks allow Hushovd to follow wheels, offering him a free ride to the finish should his teammate get caught. Right now, they’re both a bit under the weather, but look for them to peak in time for their favorite cobbled events. As long as they continue to work well together, they’ll be top favorites.
After the classics, it’s Carlos Sastre’s time to shine as the Grand Tour season begins. Last year, Sastre experimented, using the Giro to prepare for the defense of his 2008 Tour de France title. While the experiment didn’t help him in France, he won 2 summit finishes in Italy on his way to placing 4th overall. This year he’s focusing a bit more on the Giro as a result; perhaps he can add a pink jersey to the yellow one he earned two years ago.
In July, all three men will head to the Tour with Hushovd hoping for another green jersey, Sastre another yellow one, and Haussler for more stages. While yellow might be tough—the competition’s just too strong for Sastre—a green jersey and several stages are well within the realm of possibility.
All in all, we’ll know the success of Cervelo’s 2010 campaign by August 1st. A classic or two plus a successful Giro and Tour will be more than enough to justify their status as one of the top 2 or 3 teams in the world.
Man of the Hour: Thor Hushovd had an impressive season in 2009, even though his late-race fall kept him from winning at Roubaix. This year he heads into the season more motivated than ever—will he bring a pavé trophy home to Norway?
On the Hot Seat: Carlos Sastre’s 34, an age many consider to be the beginning of the end—of a Grand Tour rider’s peak, that is. This year might be the last in which he’ll be considered a legitimate contender for an overall title—unless his performances dictates otherwise.
Up-and-Comer: Haussler’s an old story, but he’s an up-and-comer because he’s still on the way up. There’s an incredibly high ceiling for his talent—and we have yet to see him reach it.
Best Pick-up: Cervélo spent surprisingly little money upgrading it’s roster, signing only 5 riders including a 31-year-old, a 34-year-old, and a former track rider. All in all, that’s little to get excited about. Their biggest pick-up might just be SRAM, a component company still willing to throw heaps of cash at elite teams. Did you notice the switch Cervélo made from Dura Ace’s 7900 levers to 7800 levers last year? They weren’t completely compatible with the team’s Rotor cranksets. SRAM’s components offer no such compatibility issues, and likely came with a much bigger check.
Biggest Loss: Cervélo had no chance to retain Simon Gerrans after leaving him home during the 2009 Tour. They’ll miss him in the Ardennes and the Grand Tours—especially if the others fail to find success.
#1 – Saxo Bank
And last, but certainly not least, Saxo Bank earns the title as Pavé’s #1 Team for 2010. With several riders capable of winning multiple classics, stage races, and Grand Tours, there’s really no better choice.
Skipping over Paris-Nice and Tirreno-Adriatico—races Saxo certainly has riders capable of winning—we’ll begin with Milan-San Remo and the cobbled classics where Fabian Cancellara seeks revenge following a less-than-stellar spring in 2009. Spartacus has won San Remo and Roubaix, with the latter a race he would like to win again. The schedule change also favors Saxo’s Swiss superstar, with Ghent-Wevelgem’s earlier date a perfect opportunity for such a powerful rider. Cancellara should have Baden Cooke and Frank Hoj to lean-on for support, with Cooke possibly missing the first weekend to attend the Criterium International—a race another Saxo rider, Jens Voigt, has come to own over the past several years.
Then the Ardennes arrive, the scene of Andy Schleck’s breakthrough win in last year’s Liege-Bastogne-Liege. Then all eyes turn to July, the scene of what will certainly be yet another showdown between Schleck and Alberto Contador—a duel we should get used to. Saxo heads to the race with perhaps the deepest team. Andy will have the support of the team’s best, with Cancellara, Voigt, Frank Schleck, and Gustav Erik Larsson more than capable of controlling the race for their young leader.
Like Cervélo, by this point in the summer we’ll likely be able to judge the overall success of the team’s season as the majority of its riders will have ridden through their season goals—except maybe Cancellara, who proved last year that he can be a contender in any month.
All in all, even after losing a talented a man or two, Bjarne Riis comes into 2010 with the strongest and deepest team in the world—and he’ll need all the help he can get if he hopes to attract a new title sponsor for 2011.
Man of the Hour: Cancellara’s the man of hour at Saxo Bank, both literally and figuratively. Look for him to win races from March through October in a variety of disciplines—and at 28, his best years might still be ahead of him.
On the Hot Seat: Andy Schleck’s on the Hot Seat for no other reason than the fact that he’s the #1 challenger to Contador’s Tour supremacy. By the end of July we’ll know if Andy’s able to handle the pressure.
Up-and-Comer: Jacob Fuglsang’s the next of Saxo Bank’s talented riders to get a chance in the Tour. He’s way down on the depth chart behind the Schleck’s, but he should at least get a taste for the event in. Maybe he can ride well enough to earn a chance somewhere else?
Best Pick-up: Baden Cooke might not be the best of Saxo Bank’s pick-ups, but he’s certainly the most interesting. Bjarne Riis has a talent for resuscitating the careers of wayward souls—I wonder if he’ll prove able to help Baden return to prominence.
Biggest Loss: You mean aside from their title sponsor, right?
And there you have it—the first annual Pavé Team-By-Team Season Preview. Let the debates begin!
Thanks for reading--come back tomorrow for our preview of Belgium’s Opening Weekend. And look for us at NAHBS. The Pavé hat will be a dead giveaway…
#5 – BMC
The new-and-improved BMC is the first of 2 Professional Continental teams in the Top-5, proof that a Pro Tour license isn’t the only key to success. Jim Ochowicz must have had quite a bit of fun signing the likes of Alessandro Ballan, Marcus Burghardt, Karsten Kroon, George Hincapie, and—just when we all thought the roster was complete—the newly-crowned World Champion, Cadel Evans. While they’re shy to admit it, the signing of Evans gave BMC the final piece they needed to most likely earn an invite to the 2010 Tour.
Regardless, the team is wise to take nothing for granted, planning the first half of its season around the classics and the Giro. Between them, BMC’s new men have all scored top-10 results in all major classics. Burghardt’s a threat in Ghent-Wevelgem and Flanders; Hincapie in Ghent, Flanders, and Roubaix; Ballan in Flanders and Roubaix; Kroon in Amstel; and of course, Evans in the Ardennes. If BMC plans wisely, they could certainly prove to be one of the sport’s most dominant teams from March through April.
After the Ardennes, the focus shifts to the Giro, where Cadel Evans will make another attempt at scoring a win in a Grand Tour. The Giro is a fitting choice, as it’s the place where Cadel first burst onto the Grand Tour scene with Mapei in 2002. He held the Pink Jersey for a day before cracking to finish 14th overall behind Paolo Salvodelli. Evans returns this year, hoping to shrug-off the bad luck he’s displayed in past Grand Tour attempts. While Cuddles is a bit temperamental, I think his Worlds win could be the beginning of a new phase in his career, perhaps instilling the confidence he seems to have lacked in years past. Who knows, maybe he wins the Giro, and then goes to the Tour relaxed and riding high.
The knock against BMC is chemistry. Only Burghardt and Hincapie raced together last season; otherwise everyone comes from a team in which he was more or less an undisputed leader. Will Ballan defer to Hincapie in Roubaix? Will Kroon defer to Evans in Amstel? If everyone peaks at the same time, these are questions that will need to be answered—and not on the road.
Man of the Hour: Cadel Evans won Worlds last year, a victory that moved him from a place on someone’s Hot Seat, to BMC’s Man of the Hour. Hopefully Cadel uses the win as stepping-stone to bigger things. Liege? The Giro? The Tour?
On the Hot Seat: George Hincapie’s running out of time for what would certainly be a career-topping win in Paris-Roubaix. He’s 37, and luckily Roubaix’s one race where age is less of a factor—especially since George’s age comes with the benefit of many years of experience on the pavé. With Burghardt and Ballan at his side, BMC has a team of Quick Step’s caliber, the one thing George has lacked in his past attempts. Clearly, this is George’s best chance yet.
Up-and-Comer: BMC’s perhaps the most up-and-coming squad in the entire sport—hopefully they’ll win enough to justify the distinction.
Best Pick-up: The signings of Evans, Hincapie, and Ballan received more press, but Marcus Burghardt might actually win the most races for BMC, possibly beginning this Saturday in the Omloop.
Biggest Loss: As a squad relatively new to the sport’s upper echelon, BMC’s gained more than it’s lost. We’ll have to revisit this one next year.
#4 – Liquigas
Liquigas has perhaps the youngest and deepest Grand Tour squad in the sport, led by the Four Horsemen of the Green-pocalypse (yes, I made that up myself): Ivan Basso, Franco Pellizotti, Roman Kreuziger, and Vincenzo Nibali. In a way, Liquigas finds itself in a siutution akin to BMC in that its only problem will be sorting-out who’s leading the team in which races. Luckily for them, I have some suggestions:
1. Roman Kreuziger began to show himself as a talented one-day rider in the second half of 2009, nearly winning the Clasica San Sebastien and a stage in the Vuelta. If I were Roberto Amadio, I’d set Roman’s sights on the Ardennes, a goal only a week or two earlier than the Tour of Romandy—a race he won last year. Then I’d send him to the Giro as co-captain with Pellizotti. Maybe he takes the line at the Tour, but otherwise he races the Vuelta and Lombardy.
2. Ivan Basso’s best days might be behind him; now he’s best served as a super-domestique, perhaps riding for one of the other three. I’d have him peak for the Tour, but with the understanding that he’s not the leader—he’ll be there to ride for Vincezo Nibali, a rider whose Tour prospects are headed in a direction opposite his.
3. As for Pellizotti, he’s a talented climber, but not a leader for a Grand Tour. Time trialing is a big weakness, and his best results have come on days when he’s played more the role of the joker than the ace. Like he did in 2009, I’d send Pellizotti to both the Giro and the Tour. In the Giro, he and Kreuziger would be formidable duo. In the Tour, he’s free to hunt for stages in support of Nibali, and perhaps another polka-dot jersey.
4. As for Nibali, it’s all or nothing in this year’s Tour. He showed the potential last year; now he needs to continue to progress. It’s shaping-up to be a difficult field, but with luck Nibali might finish in the first five.
That said, let’s not forget the rest of the squad. Manuel Quinziato and Alexander Kuschynski performed well in the cobbled classics last year; they head into 2010 looking to improve on those results. Daniele Bennati and Francesco Chicchi have both started their seasons with wins; they’ll be hunting for stage wins in the Giro and Tour, with Bennati an outside favorite in some of the flatter classics.
All in all, Liquigas is perhaps one of the most underrated teams in the sport. If their talented youngsters continue to progress, that won’t be the case for long.
Man of the Hour: Italy’s abuzz with talk about Nibali’s 7th-place finish in last year’s Tour. He did just enough to contend both in the mountains and in time trials. This year he’ll need to show considerable improvement in at least one discipline to advance a spot or two in the GC.
On the Hot Seat: Ivan Basso had a respectable return to the sport, including solid rides in the Giro and Vuelta. Unfortunately, his inability to capitalize on his team leadership in Spain leaves many wondering if he wouldn’t be better-off with a different set of goals.
Up-and-Comer: Peter Sagan’s only 19, but he’s already turned the head of Lance Armstrong following a week of aggressive riding in Australia. Sagan’s one of the riders I’ll be following in Saturday’s Omloop Het Nieuwsblad as he’s an accomplished single-day racer with a background in cyclocross. It might be too soon to tell if he’s got the goods to be a successful pro—but he’s certainly off to an auspicious start.
Best Pick-up: Liquigas had a rather quiet off-season, reinforcing its roster with a handful of neo-pros and some younger riders from other teams. One interesting note: Liquigas seems to be fond of riders from former Eastern Bloc nations, with 7 riders on the roster from Poland, Croatia, Slovakia, and the Czech Republic.
Biggest Loss: Considering the talent Liquigas was able to retain, it’s tough to say they truly “lost” anything from 2009 to 2010. In fact, with some exceptions, most of the final 5 teams in the rankings suffered few big losses—perhaps a reason why they find themselves at the top of the heap.
#3 – HTC-Columbia
Then again, maybe I spoke too soon, as HTC suffered several key losses after a fantastic 2009 season. Marcus Burghardt, George Hincapie, Edvald Boassen Hagen, Thomas Lokvist, and Kim Kirchen all left for other teams—taking the bulk of HTC’s wins from 2008 and 2009 with them.
But all is not lost, as two of the sport’s fastest talents remain with HTC: Mark Cavendish and Andre Greipel. Between the two of them, Cavendish and Greipel won 13 stages in the Giro, Tour, and Vuelta. This year, Greipel’s already off to a fantastic start, having won several races. Cavendish on the other hand, has been sick; that could hurt his repeat bid in San Remo.
As for the rest of the team, it’s still quite impressive. Tony Martin performed well during the Tour’s first half last year; he’ll return this season hoping to build on that experience. He can climb and time trial, and could quietly become someone Germany might once again be proud of. He’ll be supported by one of the peloton’s most underrated support riders, Maxime Monfort.
For the Classics, HTC might have found a future champion in Matthew Goss, a rider who showed serious potential with Saxo Bank last year. He’s joined by two other one-day talents, Martin and Peter Velits formerly of Milram. These three could form the nucleus of a talented classics squad for years to come.
All in all, while seemingly depleted, HTC’s roster is chock full of potential—especially if the younger riders begin to flourish as they step from the shadows of their former teammates.
Man of the Hour: Simply put, Mark Cavendish is a superstar. But I have a hunch Greipel will win more races and is perhaps more versatile. I wonder if the squad will prove big enough for both.
On the Hot Seat: Michael Rogers just won the Ruta del Sol, but that only adds fuel to the fire as his Grand Tour potential has been touted for years with little to show for it. Can he finally break through?
Up-and-Comer: Tony Martin’s a good pick, but I want to mention the winner of the 2009 Giro’s 8th stage, Konstantin Siutsou. Siutsou’s been on my radar since he won the “Queen” stage and overall title at the Tour of Georgia in 2008. A talented climber and time trialist, Sioutsou finished the race last year 16th overall. Will he continue to progress?
Best Pick-up: Aside from the riders pulled from other teams, Bob Stapleton also did a terrific job of pulling talent from the U23 ranks including Belgium’s Jan Ghyselinck, Australia’s Leigh Howard, and Tejay Van Garderen from the USA. Once these riders develop, more wins will come for HTC.
Biggest Loss: Boassen Hagen would have won many races; but Hincapie would have helped win even more. It means a lot when Cavendish himself expresses his appreciation for all that Hincapie did.
#2 – Cervélo Test Team
Another Professional Continental team occupies the 2nd spot in our ranking as Cervélo Test Team hopes to build on its terrific first year in the sport. While HTC might be deeper, Cervélo has a better chance of winning big races, led mainly by Heinrich Haussler, Thor Hushovd, and Carlos Sastre. Basing such a lofty ranking on 3 riders is indeed a bit risky, but these men are worthy of such high expectations.
Haussler was the revelation of last year’s spring classics, finishing 2nd in both Milan-San Remo and the Tour of Flanders. While these results were impressive, Haussler’s presence seemed to elevate Thor Hushovd, who had one his better springs with a win in Het Nieuwsblad and 3rd-places in both San Remo and Paris-Roubaix. He and Haussler complement one another well; Haussler’s attacks allow Hushovd to follow wheels, offering him a free ride to the finish should his teammate get caught. Right now, they’re both a bit under the weather, but look for them to peak in time for their favorite cobbled events. As long as they continue to work well together, they’ll be top favorites.
After the classics, it’s Carlos Sastre’s time to shine as the Grand Tour season begins. Last year, Sastre experimented, using the Giro to prepare for the defense of his 2008 Tour de France title. While the experiment didn’t help him in France, he won 2 summit finishes in Italy on his way to placing 4th overall. This year he’s focusing a bit more on the Giro as a result; perhaps he can add a pink jersey to the yellow one he earned two years ago.
In July, all three men will head to the Tour with Hushovd hoping for another green jersey, Sastre another yellow one, and Haussler for more stages. While yellow might be tough—the competition’s just too strong for Sastre—a green jersey and several stages are well within the realm of possibility.
All in all, we’ll know the success of Cervelo’s 2010 campaign by August 1st. A classic or two plus a successful Giro and Tour will be more than enough to justify their status as one of the top 2 or 3 teams in the world.
Man of the Hour: Thor Hushovd had an impressive season in 2009, even though his late-race fall kept him from winning at Roubaix. This year he heads into the season more motivated than ever—will he bring a pavé trophy home to Norway?
On the Hot Seat: Carlos Sastre’s 34, an age many consider to be the beginning of the end—of a Grand Tour rider’s peak, that is. This year might be the last in which he’ll be considered a legitimate contender for an overall title—unless his performances dictates otherwise.
Up-and-Comer: Haussler’s an old story, but he’s an up-and-comer because he’s still on the way up. There’s an incredibly high ceiling for his talent—and we have yet to see him reach it.
Best Pick-up: Cervélo spent surprisingly little money upgrading it’s roster, signing only 5 riders including a 31-year-old, a 34-year-old, and a former track rider. All in all, that’s little to get excited about. Their biggest pick-up might just be SRAM, a component company still willing to throw heaps of cash at elite teams. Did you notice the switch Cervélo made from Dura Ace’s 7900 levers to 7800 levers last year? They weren’t completely compatible with the team’s Rotor cranksets. SRAM’s components offer no such compatibility issues, and likely came with a much bigger check.
Biggest Loss: Cervélo had no chance to retain Simon Gerrans after leaving him home during the 2009 Tour. They’ll miss him in the Ardennes and the Grand Tours—especially if the others fail to find success.
#1 – Saxo Bank
And last, but certainly not least, Saxo Bank earns the title as Pavé’s #1 Team for 2010. With several riders capable of winning multiple classics, stage races, and Grand Tours, there’s really no better choice.
Skipping over Paris-Nice and Tirreno-Adriatico—races Saxo certainly has riders capable of winning—we’ll begin with Milan-San Remo and the cobbled classics where Fabian Cancellara seeks revenge following a less-than-stellar spring in 2009. Spartacus has won San Remo and Roubaix, with the latter a race he would like to win again. The schedule change also favors Saxo’s Swiss superstar, with Ghent-Wevelgem’s earlier date a perfect opportunity for such a powerful rider. Cancellara should have Baden Cooke and Frank Hoj to lean-on for support, with Cooke possibly missing the first weekend to attend the Criterium International—a race another Saxo rider, Jens Voigt, has come to own over the past several years.
Then the Ardennes arrive, the scene of Andy Schleck’s breakthrough win in last year’s Liege-Bastogne-Liege. Then all eyes turn to July, the scene of what will certainly be yet another showdown between Schleck and Alberto Contador—a duel we should get used to. Saxo heads to the race with perhaps the deepest team. Andy will have the support of the team’s best, with Cancellara, Voigt, Frank Schleck, and Gustav Erik Larsson more than capable of controlling the race for their young leader.
Like Cervélo, by this point in the summer we’ll likely be able to judge the overall success of the team’s season as the majority of its riders will have ridden through their season goals—except maybe Cancellara, who proved last year that he can be a contender in any month.
All in all, even after losing a talented a man or two, Bjarne Riis comes into 2010 with the strongest and deepest team in the world—and he’ll need all the help he can get if he hopes to attract a new title sponsor for 2011.
Man of the Hour: Cancellara’s the man of hour at Saxo Bank, both literally and figuratively. Look for him to win races from March through October in a variety of disciplines—and at 28, his best years might still be ahead of him.
On the Hot Seat: Andy Schleck’s on the Hot Seat for no other reason than the fact that he’s the #1 challenger to Contador’s Tour supremacy. By the end of July we’ll know if Andy’s able to handle the pressure.
Up-and-Comer: Jacob Fuglsang’s the next of Saxo Bank’s talented riders to get a chance in the Tour. He’s way down on the depth chart behind the Schleck’s, but he should at least get a taste for the event in. Maybe he can ride well enough to earn a chance somewhere else?
Best Pick-up: Baden Cooke might not be the best of Saxo Bank’s pick-ups, but he’s certainly the most interesting. Bjarne Riis has a talent for resuscitating the careers of wayward souls—I wonder if he’ll prove able to help Baden return to prominence.
Biggest Loss: You mean aside from their title sponsor, right?
And there you have it—the first annual Pavé Team-By-Team Season Preview. Let the debates begin!
Thanks for reading--come back tomorrow for our preview of Belgium’s Opening Weekend. And look for us at NAHBS. The Pavé hat will be a dead giveaway…
Wednesday, September 2, 2009
Transfer Period Opens - Win, Lose, or Draw
I’m no Burt Reynolds or Dom DeLuise, but I know a good game of Win, Lose, or Draw when I see one. Yesterday gave us our first chance to sketch-out some team rosters for 2010. So, let’s pick-up a marker and head to the easel:
First, the Winners:
1. BMC has to be considered the major winner of the 2009 transfer season having assembled a top-notch Classics squad. Alessandro Ballan brings talent and panache along with his palmares; Marcus Burghart is a man for the future (who's already happened to have won several races). George Hincapie comes to provide the experience necessary to guide the rest to victory year-round. Look for Ballan to make the push for Flanders, Burghart for Ghent-Wevelgem, and Hincapie for Roubaix. And don’t forget Karsten Kroon—he’s no slouch either and could bring the team another win a week after Roubaix at the Amstel Gold Race. Overall, it was a pretty impressive haul for Jim Ochowicz and John Lelangue. Now they must hope for the invitations they need to get their riders in the best races. With this roster, it shouldn't be a problem.
2. The next winner is Liquigas, who won simply by staying put. They announced that the bulk of their roster is staying-put, including wunderkinds Vincenzo Nibali and Roman Kreuziger. Even Ivan Basso returns for another year in the green and blue, perhaps spurning an offer to ride with Lance at Radio Shack? Kuchynski and Quinziato remain for the Classics, along with talented domestiques like Willems and Vandborg. And don't forget Franco Pellisotti, he'll be back as well. Sometimes the best moves are the ones not made, I guess.
And now, the Losers:
1. Lampre should be chided for letting Ballan go. For an Italian team, losing homegrown talent has to be considered a disappointment. His replacement? Alessandro Petacchi. Sure, he’ll bring stage wins in the Giro, but he’s getting older, is no stranger to scandal, and he was probably overpaid. What’s Saronni thinking?
2. It was inevitable; Columbia-HTC had to start losing sometime. With so much talent, choices had to be made. Right now, Burghart, Hincapie, and Kirchen are the biggest names to depart, but Edvald Boassen Hagen and Thomas Lokvist are likely to leave as well. Columbia’s re-stocked a bit, signing young talent from around the world as well as up-and-comers like Martin and Peter Velits. But the riders they lose will leave a mark in the win column for sure, especially Hincapie, whose guidance and veteran leadership will be missed in the Classics and the Tour.
These teams get a Draw:
1. Team Sky certainly wants to make a splash, choosing to wait a week or so to announce it’s full roster—maybe to finalize a few more names, perhaps to ensure the spotlight’s all their own. Rumors are swirling as to whom they’ll sign, with Boassen Hagen and Simon Gerrans topping the list. Whenever it happens, it will be exciting to see the final shape of the UK’s first Pro Tour team. Until that time though, judgment must be reserved.
2. Garmin made some noise, signing young talent and some classics help in the form of Johan Vansummeren. That said, I was hoping for more. They need a rider with the talent and experience necessary to help the younger guys start to win bigger races. Vansummeren might bring that, but it’s hard to tell given the role he played at Silence-Lotto. For now they get a draw, but if they don’t start contending in the Monuments soon or hit the podium at the Tour, it could turn-out to be a loss.
3. Radio Shack made a splash from the Tour to now, but let's look at their signings objectively. Clearly, this is a team for Lance. He's surrounded himself with dedicated riders willing to sacrifice their own aspirations for his sake. But honestly, does Lance have the legs left to match his ambition? I think not. Radio Shack will come to the Tour fully loaded, but if Lance can't hang with the other favorites, which rider will pick-up the mantle? Levi? Popo? And what about the Classics? Yes, Geert Steegmans is a talented rider and well-suited to the Northern races, but he's very inconsistent and has never shown the ability to deliver as a protected rider. So for now, The Shack gets a draw, but like Slipstream, time will tell the true merits of its acquisitions.
Otherwise, it was a relatively quiet September 1st.
What about you? Which teams did I miss? Share your thoughts below.
First, the Winners:
1. BMC has to be considered the major winner of the 2009 transfer season having assembled a top-notch Classics squad. Alessandro Ballan brings talent and panache along with his palmares; Marcus Burghart is a man for the future (who's already happened to have won several races). George Hincapie comes to provide the experience necessary to guide the rest to victory year-round. Look for Ballan to make the push for Flanders, Burghart for Ghent-Wevelgem, and Hincapie for Roubaix. And don’t forget Karsten Kroon—he’s no slouch either and could bring the team another win a week after Roubaix at the Amstel Gold Race. Overall, it was a pretty impressive haul for Jim Ochowicz and John Lelangue. Now they must hope for the invitations they need to get their riders in the best races. With this roster, it shouldn't be a problem.
2. The next winner is Liquigas, who won simply by staying put. They announced that the bulk of their roster is staying-put, including wunderkinds Vincenzo Nibali and Roman Kreuziger. Even Ivan Basso returns for another year in the green and blue, perhaps spurning an offer to ride with Lance at Radio Shack? Kuchynski and Quinziato remain for the Classics, along with talented domestiques like Willems and Vandborg. And don't forget Franco Pellisotti, he'll be back as well. Sometimes the best moves are the ones not made, I guess.
And now, the Losers:
1. Lampre should be chided for letting Ballan go. For an Italian team, losing homegrown talent has to be considered a disappointment. His replacement? Alessandro Petacchi. Sure, he’ll bring stage wins in the Giro, but he’s getting older, is no stranger to scandal, and he was probably overpaid. What’s Saronni thinking?
2. It was inevitable; Columbia-HTC had to start losing sometime. With so much talent, choices had to be made. Right now, Burghart, Hincapie, and Kirchen are the biggest names to depart, but Edvald Boassen Hagen and Thomas Lokvist are likely to leave as well. Columbia’s re-stocked a bit, signing young talent from around the world as well as up-and-comers like Martin and Peter Velits. But the riders they lose will leave a mark in the win column for sure, especially Hincapie, whose guidance and veteran leadership will be missed in the Classics and the Tour.
These teams get a Draw:
1. Team Sky certainly wants to make a splash, choosing to wait a week or so to announce it’s full roster—maybe to finalize a few more names, perhaps to ensure the spotlight’s all their own. Rumors are swirling as to whom they’ll sign, with Boassen Hagen and Simon Gerrans topping the list. Whenever it happens, it will be exciting to see the final shape of the UK’s first Pro Tour team. Until that time though, judgment must be reserved.
2. Garmin made some noise, signing young talent and some classics help in the form of Johan Vansummeren. That said, I was hoping for more. They need a rider with the talent and experience necessary to help the younger guys start to win bigger races. Vansummeren might bring that, but it’s hard to tell given the role he played at Silence-Lotto. For now they get a draw, but if they don’t start contending in the Monuments soon or hit the podium at the Tour, it could turn-out to be a loss.
3. Radio Shack made a splash from the Tour to now, but let's look at their signings objectively. Clearly, this is a team for Lance. He's surrounded himself with dedicated riders willing to sacrifice their own aspirations for his sake. But honestly, does Lance have the legs left to match his ambition? I think not. Radio Shack will come to the Tour fully loaded, but if Lance can't hang with the other favorites, which rider will pick-up the mantle? Levi? Popo? And what about the Classics? Yes, Geert Steegmans is a talented rider and well-suited to the Northern races, but he's very inconsistent and has never shown the ability to deliver as a protected rider. So for now, The Shack gets a draw, but like Slipstream, time will tell the true merits of its acquisitions.
Otherwise, it was a relatively quiet September 1st.
What about you? Which teams did I miss? Share your thoughts below.
Wednesday, July 1, 2009
Tour de France Preview - Les Équipes du Tour - Part Trois
Here's Part Trois in our team-by-team preview of this year's Tour de France. Tomorrow will be the last 5, including some we missed earlied due to rosters not being finalized.
You can read Part Une here, and Part Deux here.
Don't forget to add us to your RSS reader, follow us via Blogger, and keep track in 140 characters or less via Twitter.
And of course, keep those comments coming!
Here's Part Trois:
Lampre-NGC
Lampre comes to the Tour with aspirations similar to Katusha—minus the preceding drama (See Part Deux). For Alessandro Ballan, the goal is a stage win in the rainbow jersey, thus propelling him into the second half of the season with the hope of more wins to come. Simon Spilak is another rider to watch for in a breakaway; he’s talented and aggressive. In the sprints, Lampre will be backing Angelo Furlan, but he’s a step below the A-List field sprinters. Look for him later in the race if he can survive past the mountains.
Marzio Bruseghin comes to the Tour following his Top-10 ride in the Giro ready to test himself in July. A time trialist who can also pull good results in the mountains, Bruseghin has to be counted as at least a dark horse for the Top-10. He doesn’t have much of a team to back him when things get tough, but if he can follow the right moves and play-off the other, deeper squads he could find himself well-placed come Paris.
Liquigas
Don’t let Liquigas fool you. They say they’re coming to the Tour with modest aspirations, but they’re certainly capable of turning the race on it’s ear. Co-Leaders Roman Kreuzinger and Vincenzo Nibali are still considered by mangement to be a year away from a serious assault on the Maillot Jaune, but that could be a smoke screen to protect the youngsters—23 and 24 respectively—from the intense pressure favored status brings. Both can climb and time trial. Kreuzinger won the Tour de Suisse last year before finishing the Tour in 12th place; Nibali finished 7th in this year’s Dauphiné following his 20th place in Paris in 2008. Both riders will be motivated to take the next step to greatness, and—assuming they can avoid an inter-squad feud—can easily finish within the Tour’s Top-10.
Franco Pellizotti will be riding the race fresh from his 3rd place in this year’s Giro. The other two will certainly appreciate his presence. Franco’s a talented climber who can help in the more difficult stages; he's also used to the pressure of riding for the GC. While guiding the youngsters, he'll be shooting for a stage win himself. Look for him on transitional mountain stages, or perhaps, Mont Ventoux if he’s down on GC.
For the flatter days, Liquigas will be relying on former stage winner Daniele Bennati to regain the speed he’s displayed in the past. Watch for Aleksandr Kuschynski and Frederic Willems in breakaways—both are classics-type riders capable of winning following a long day off the front.
All in all, Liquigas comes to the Tour with perhaps one of the most well-rounded teams in the race. Capable of winning on multiple fronts, with good direction they could seriously threaten the supremacy of the more heavily-favored Astana’s, Rabobank’s, and Saxo’s.
Team Milram
Milram comes to the Tour with perhaps it’s best team in recent memory. Young, aggressive, and well-rounded, it's a team of riders capable of animating the race on several fronts.
Fabian Wegman comes to the Tour for the first time in recent memory without the jersey of German National Champion. Wegman’s an attacking rider who perhaps gets a bit too eager at times. Maybe not having the beacon of the all-white German Champ kit will temper his aggression just enough to get him the win he deserves.
Linus Gerdemann and Gerald Ciolek came over from Columbia after last season. Gerdemann will be Milram’s man for the GC and Ciolek their sprinter. Both could pull a surprise here and there—Ciolek more so than Gerdemann. Ciolek’s greatest asset is his endurance; he can last all the way to Paris long after other sprinters have gone home. Gerdemann will have Markus Fothen supporting him in the mountains as he shoots for the Top-10.
Finally, there’s a bevy of talented riders eager for stage wins including Peter Velits, Niki Terpstra, and Christian Knees. All have shown good form over the season so far, and they should be seen frequently off the front. It could be a very good Tour for Milram. It’s about time, isn’t it?
Quick Step
Quick Step’s full team has been confirmed with one major caveat: it has yet to be decided whether or not Tom Boonen will be allowed to compete following his positive test (out of competition) for cocaine. We''ll have to wait for Friday to get the final answer.
With Boonen, Quick Step’s goal is clear: win as many flat stages as possible while working to get Boonen the Green Jersey. Without Boonen, the team will take Allan Davis to the race. Davis is a capable sprinter, but he's no Tom Boonen (understatement of the year?). He stands far better chances once the race gets closer to Paris and the pure sprinters have gone home.
Stijn Devolder will once again be trying his luck at the GC, but it’s all but been concluded that it’s not his cup of tea. He should probably just do his best for a stage. But Boonen notwithstanding, Quick Step’s best chance for stage success probably lies in the capable hands of Sylvain Chavanel. He was one of the race's key animators last year, and he'll certainly be motivated to win another stage in his home tour.
But let’s face it: it all comes down to Boonen for Quick Step. With him, 4-5 stages are possible, without him, maybe 1 or 2.
Rabobank
Denis Menchov and his Rabobank colleagues might be the team everyone fears the most. An accomplished Grand Tour rider, Menchov comes to the Tour straight from his Giro victory, the last race he’s entered. Menchov finished 3rd in last year's Tour (following Kohl’s expulsion) more or less by following wheels in the mountains and making-up chunks of the time against the clock (Menchov’s one rider who might dispel my claim yesterday that only Cancellara/Garmin/Astana/Columbia will finish in the Top-10 in the Tour’s TT’s). This year the pressure will be on him to play more of an aggressive role; he’ll have to if he wants to win. Alberto Contador and Cadel Evans are much better GC riders than Danilo DiLuca; Menchov’s “me and my shadow” strategy won’t work as well in France as it did in Italy.
Rabobank brings a talented team with Menchov to Monaco. Robert Gesink will get his first stab at riding the Tour. He could prove to be Menchov’s biggest ally in the mountains along with Laurens ten Dam. Stef Clement and Joost Posthuma are two rouleurs capable controlling the flatter stages and adding firepower in the TTT. Juan Antonio Flecha will be seeking stage wins, as well as his compatriot, Oscar Freire. Freire’s always a favorite for the Green Jersey; Clement and Posthuma will help in that regard.
But in the end, it will all come down to Menchov. He’ll need a good mix of aggression and consistency if he hopes to win. If he does, he’ll join an exclusive group of riders who can say they've won all three Grand Tours.
That's it for now. Keep coming back daily for coverage, comments, and more. It will be Pavé's biggest month since April!
You can read Part Une here, and Part Deux here.
Don't forget to add us to your RSS reader, follow us via Blogger, and keep track in 140 characters or less via Twitter.
And of course, keep those comments coming!
Here's Part Trois:
Lampre comes to the Tour with aspirations similar to Katusha—minus the preceding drama (See Part Deux). For Alessandro Ballan, the goal is a stage win in the rainbow jersey, thus propelling him into the second half of the season with the hope of more wins to come. Simon Spilak is another rider to watch for in a breakaway; he’s talented and aggressive. In the sprints, Lampre will be backing Angelo Furlan, but he’s a step below the A-List field sprinters. Look for him later in the race if he can survive past the mountains.
Marzio Bruseghin comes to the Tour following his Top-10 ride in the Giro ready to test himself in July. A time trialist who can also pull good results in the mountains, Bruseghin has to be counted as at least a dark horse for the Top-10. He doesn’t have much of a team to back him when things get tough, but if he can follow the right moves and play-off the other, deeper squads he could find himself well-placed come Paris.
Don’t let Liquigas fool you. They say they’re coming to the Tour with modest aspirations, but they’re certainly capable of turning the race on it’s ear. Co-Leaders Roman Kreuzinger and Vincenzo Nibali are still considered by mangement to be a year away from a serious assault on the Maillot Jaune, but that could be a smoke screen to protect the youngsters—23 and 24 respectively—from the intense pressure favored status brings. Both can climb and time trial. Kreuzinger won the Tour de Suisse last year before finishing the Tour in 12th place; Nibali finished 7th in this year’s Dauphiné following his 20th place in Paris in 2008. Both riders will be motivated to take the next step to greatness, and—assuming they can avoid an inter-squad feud—can easily finish within the Tour’s Top-10.
Franco Pellizotti will be riding the race fresh from his 3rd place in this year’s Giro. The other two will certainly appreciate his presence. Franco’s a talented climber who can help in the more difficult stages; he's also used to the pressure of riding for the GC. While guiding the youngsters, he'll be shooting for a stage win himself. Look for him on transitional mountain stages, or perhaps, Mont Ventoux if he’s down on GC.
For the flatter days, Liquigas will be relying on former stage winner Daniele Bennati to regain the speed he’s displayed in the past. Watch for Aleksandr Kuschynski and Frederic Willems in breakaways—both are classics-type riders capable of winning following a long day off the front.
All in all, Liquigas comes to the Tour with perhaps one of the most well-rounded teams in the race. Capable of winning on multiple fronts, with good direction they could seriously threaten the supremacy of the more heavily-favored Astana’s, Rabobank’s, and Saxo’s.
Milram comes to the Tour with perhaps it’s best team in recent memory. Young, aggressive, and well-rounded, it's a team of riders capable of animating the race on several fronts.
Fabian Wegman comes to the Tour for the first time in recent memory without the jersey of German National Champion. Wegman’s an attacking rider who perhaps gets a bit too eager at times. Maybe not having the beacon of the all-white German Champ kit will temper his aggression just enough to get him the win he deserves.
Linus Gerdemann and Gerald Ciolek came over from Columbia after last season. Gerdemann will be Milram’s man for the GC and Ciolek their sprinter. Both could pull a surprise here and there—Ciolek more so than Gerdemann. Ciolek’s greatest asset is his endurance; he can last all the way to Paris long after other sprinters have gone home. Gerdemann will have Markus Fothen supporting him in the mountains as he shoots for the Top-10.
Finally, there’s a bevy of talented riders eager for stage wins including Peter Velits, Niki Terpstra, and Christian Knees. All have shown good form over the season so far, and they should be seen frequently off the front. It could be a very good Tour for Milram. It’s about time, isn’t it?
Quick Step’s full team has been confirmed with one major caveat: it has yet to be decided whether or not Tom Boonen will be allowed to compete following his positive test (out of competition) for cocaine. We''ll have to wait for Friday to get the final answer.
With Boonen, Quick Step’s goal is clear: win as many flat stages as possible while working to get Boonen the Green Jersey. Without Boonen, the team will take Allan Davis to the race. Davis is a capable sprinter, but he's no Tom Boonen (understatement of the year?). He stands far better chances once the race gets closer to Paris and the pure sprinters have gone home.
Stijn Devolder will once again be trying his luck at the GC, but it’s all but been concluded that it’s not his cup of tea. He should probably just do his best for a stage. But Boonen notwithstanding, Quick Step’s best chance for stage success probably lies in the capable hands of Sylvain Chavanel. He was one of the race's key animators last year, and he'll certainly be motivated to win another stage in his home tour.
But let’s face it: it all comes down to Boonen for Quick Step. With him, 4-5 stages are possible, without him, maybe 1 or 2.
Denis Menchov and his Rabobank colleagues might be the team everyone fears the most. An accomplished Grand Tour rider, Menchov comes to the Tour straight from his Giro victory, the last race he’s entered. Menchov finished 3rd in last year's Tour (following Kohl’s expulsion) more or less by following wheels in the mountains and making-up chunks of the time against the clock (Menchov’s one rider who might dispel my claim yesterday that only Cancellara/Garmin/Astana/Columbia will finish in the Top-10 in the Tour’s TT’s). This year the pressure will be on him to play more of an aggressive role; he’ll have to if he wants to win. Alberto Contador and Cadel Evans are much better GC riders than Danilo DiLuca; Menchov’s “me and my shadow” strategy won’t work as well in France as it did in Italy.
Rabobank brings a talented team with Menchov to Monaco. Robert Gesink will get his first stab at riding the Tour. He could prove to be Menchov’s biggest ally in the mountains along with Laurens ten Dam. Stef Clement and Joost Posthuma are two rouleurs capable controlling the flatter stages and adding firepower in the TTT. Juan Antonio Flecha will be seeking stage wins, as well as his compatriot, Oscar Freire. Freire’s always a favorite for the Green Jersey; Clement and Posthuma will help in that regard.
But in the end, it will all come down to Menchov. He’ll need a good mix of aggression and consistency if he hopes to win. If he does, he’ll join an exclusive group of riders who can say they've won all three Grand Tours.
That's it for now. Keep coming back daily for coverage, comments, and more. It will be Pavé's biggest month since April!
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