Monday Musette - Roubaix Wrap-Up

All Photos by Tim Vanwichelen

Admit it, you found yesterday’s race a bit boring. Unless Cancellara happens to be your favorite rider, there was something a bit anti-climatic about the way he quickly and authoritatively disposed of his competition, motoring away from them all with a little less than 50 kilometers remaining in the race. There was no drama, no tension, and no tactics; he simply picked his moment, and rode off to victory.

1. But let’s not allow our unfulfilled expectations to prevent us from giving Spartacus his due. His ride yesterday was nothing short of astounding, the kind of dominating performance we see in a classic only once every 20 years or so. As we did after his win in Flanders, we must credit Cancellara’s team for providing him with a stress-free ride to the race’s decisive phases. Saxo Bank controlled the peloton for much of the day, at one point having 7 men spread across the front of the leading peloton. Interestingly, the man widely assumed to be Cancellara’s strongest teammate, Matti Breschel, disappeared just as things got interesting. But in the end, the day belonged to Fabian Cancellara, a truly worthy winner, and the second Swiss rider to complete the Flanders-Roubaix Double. The question now is whether or not Cancellara will take a shot at the Amstel Gold Race and Liege-Bastogne-Liege. Given what we’ve seen, I won’t discount his chances. Will you?

2. Thor Hushovd raced to a fine 2nd-place, the first of two Cervélo riders in the top-5. Thor overcame much this spring, ultimately going one better than his 3rd-place in last year’s edition. He rode a relatively quiet race, receiving some criticism for his apparent unwillingness to help Boonen chase Cancellara. While it cannot be explained why a team with two men in the group would seem so apprehensive, there’s the distinct possibility that they just had nothing to give. When you go back and watch the highlights, it’s clear that each rider was at his limit and doing everything he could just to hold the wheel directly in front of him. Congratulations as well to Thor’s teammate, Roger Hammond, for another great ride in Roubaix. Believe it or not, it’s not Hammond’s best result on the pavé though; he finished 3rd in 2004.

3. Juan Antonio Flecha put Team Sky on the podium in the team’s first foray into Hell with 3rd-place on the day. Overall, it’s the Spaniard’s third visit to the podium in Roubaix and his fifth finish inside the top-6. Sky’s pleased with the ride, but Flecha has to be wondering just what he has to do to win. His team did well to protect him into the race finale and he made no errors, tactical or otherwise. In the end, he simply succumbed to two stronger riders—nothing more, nothing less.

4. Tom Boonen was the day’s biggest loser, taking 5th in a race he was favored to win. Much can be said about Boonen’s performance—there’s a lot of blame to go around. First of all, Boonen’s Quick Step team left its leader far too isolated when the race began to intensify. Even before the Forest of Arenberg, Boonen was all but alone while his competitors—especially Cancellara—had several teammates at their sides. Heading into the final 60 kilometers with a relatively large group, Boonen’s anxiety began to show as he launched a series of unsuccessful attacks inside a span of about 10 kilometers. These were moves that should have been made by his teammates, but they were all too busy dropping-out, crashing, or chasing back to the front. Had Boonen some help in softening the front of the field, he might have had the legs to go with Cancellara’s race-winning attack moments later. Had he been paying attention, that is.

In the end, it’s easy to fault Boonen for a mistake many might have made. The road was wide, the group was tired, and a small group had just escaped to give the group some purpose. Surrounded by other favorites, it was—he thought—the ideal time to slip to the back, grab a drink, stretch his legs, and follow wheels for a bit. While Cancellara certainly wasn’t planning to attack at such a moment, once he looked back and saw Tommeke’s poor placement, he had to take his chance.
Boonen chased valiantly upon realizing the severity of the moment—he was clearly riding at a level better than his companions—but in the end it wasn’t enough to close the gap created during his moment of inattention. Overall, Boonen’s spring was one most riders would love to have had; but for a man boasting such an impressive resume, it’s a disappointment.

5. Bjorn Leukemans continued his impressive run with a 6th-place finish, two spots below his best-ever result in Roubaix. Watching Leukemans bury himself to hold Cancellara’s wheel is perhaps the best highlight of all the cobbled classics. As for his fist pound, I’m not sure Leukemans was responding to Cancellara’s speed as much as he was expressing his frustrations with a front tire that was losing air and a moto that seemed slow to accelerate. (Here’s a great link to a video of the entire sequence--feel free to form your own assumptions.) Regardless, hats-off to Leukemans—let’s see what he does in Amstel.

6. Filippo Pozzato came home in 7th-place, taking the Ballerini Prize as first Italian finisher. It was a good result for the Italian, but one that only begs the question as to what he could have accomplished had he not been hit with the flu in the week leading up to Flanders. The black kit was a nice touch, if for no other reason than it softened the effect of those god-awful Lazer helmet covers.

7. As for Leif Hoste, he can at least say he tried. His attack with Leukemans and Sebastien Hinault set-up Cancellara’s winning attack. His 8th-place finish is a solid result; but looking at the competition, it’s tough to see him ever getting the win he so craves.

Looking down the rest of the finishers from Sunday—which is easy to do considering there were only 74 of them—there are few highlights:

8. George Hincapie was literally right next to Cancellara when the Swiss rider snuck up the left side of the road. I took some heat for touting George’s chances in the days before the race; now it appears I need to read the writing on the wall. One comment yesterday compared George to Levi Leipheimer, another man known more for his misses than his hits. After another Roubaix where George seemed able to do little more than follow, it’s looking like the comparison might be appropriate. I’m sorry George, but maybe Roubaix is one nut you’ll never crack. George’s BMC teammates fared no better; none of them completed the race.

9. Other non-finishers included Peter Sagan and Lars Boom, while Stijn Devolder—after another day spent at or off the back—could manage no better than 42nd.

10. As for Garmin, we expected big things from Tyler Farrar and his colleagues—what we got was Martijn Maaskant in 22nd, the team’s only finisher.

On a day of sunshine and dry conditions, a strong headwind is the most common excuse for the attrition—that and the other-worldly exploits of a rider enjoying the best form of his career. Domination might be boring, but it never fails to impress.

Enjoy your Monday—share your thoughts below.

Paris-Roubaix - 2010 Preview (For Real This Time...)

All Photos by Tim Vanwichelen

While last year I took an early stab at predicting the favorites for this year's race, I've saved the real Preview for the last minute. The last few weeks have given us time to separate the men from the boys, hence a smaller list than usual of men capable taking the Queen of the Classics. Here we go:

5-Stone Favorites

Last spring, sickness and injury took their toll on Fabian Cancellara, possibly a result of an early season trip to the rainy and cold Tour of California. As a result, the Swiss Champion rode a rather anonymous classics campaign, abandoning the Tour of Flanders after a broken chain on the Koppenburg and spending most of Roubaix in the service of his team. But Spartacus is back this year—in a big way. After winning the E3 Prijs Vlaanderen and the Tour of Flanders—an impressive double in its own right—Cancellara now heads to Roubaix as the top favorite to become only the second non-Belgian (and coincidentally, the second Swiss rider) to add the impressive Flanders-Roubaix double to his palmares as well. Cancellara is obviously in the form of his life and he has enjoyed past success on the pavé (he won the race in 2006 and has several high finishes on his resume). Perhaps more importantly, Cancellara has the confidence from knowing he defeated his main rival, Tom Boonen, twice in the last two weeks—in races considered Boonen’s home turf. All that aside, Cancellara’s biggest asset is his team. With experienced domestiques including Stuart O’Grady (the 2007 Roubaix winner), Baden Cooke, and Frank Hoj, look to see Saxo Bank massed at the front of the peloton well into the race’s final phases. Better still, Cancellara has a lieutenant strong enough the race himself—Matti Breschel. Combine condition, experience, confidence, and team with a dash of luck, and Paris-Roubaix is Cancellara’s race to lose.

It’s to hard to believe that Quick Step’s Tom Boonen comes into this year’s Paris-Roubaix as a slight underdog considering he’s the two-time defending champion and the winner of three of the last five editions. Boonen’s also took second in Milan-San Remo, the E3 Prijs Vlaanderen, and last Sunday’s Tour of Flanders—an impressive haul for most riders. That said, there’s just one thing separating Boonen from being a shoo-in to take a record-tying fourth Roubaix: Fabian Cancellara. To beat Spartacus, Boonen needs to ride with confidence and a bit of luck to go with the form that’s obviously there. He’ll also need more support from his team than he received last week. The world’s fastest time trialist, Cancellara won Flanders partly because he was able to isolate Boonen early, forcing him to ride mano a mano in what was essentially a two-man time trial to the foot of the Muur. His legs clearly spent from the sustained power output, Boonen was unable to respond to Cancellara’s inevitable surge. Tomorrow, Boonen will need his teammates, notably Stijn Devolder, to ease the pressure on their captain before the race enters its crucial sectors—especially since Cancellara’s team seems to be much stronger. If Boonen can exit the Arenberg Forest with at least 2 or 3 teammates at his side, he’ll be in good shape; if he’s isolated early though, it could mean the end of his terrific run at Roubaix.

4-Stone Favorites

The next two riders on the list come to this year’s edition of the Hell of the North with new teams and fine condition—two things they’ll need to overcome Cancellara and Boonen—and years of near misses.

Team Sky’s Juan Antonio Flecha is a rider unafraid to attack in Paris-Roubaix, but bad luck, poor team support, and foolish choices have often prevented him from taking the win. A victory in this year’s Omloop Het Nieuwsblad seemed to indicate that Flecha—thanks to the support of a powerful Team Sky—had finally shrugged the cobbled monkey from his back. However, missed chances in the E3 Prijs and the Tour of Flanders have some wondering if Flecha’s Omloop was more a result of timing than a signal of bigger things to come. That said, I think Flecha can win this race. Roubaix’s always suited him more than Flanders—he’s a powerful rider, capable of the long, sustained in-the-saddle efforts from which Roubaix winners are born. Furthermore, he has a talented team entirely devoted to getting him the win. If Flecha’s able to take advantage of what might certainly become a two-man staring contest between Cancellara and Boonen, he could ride away to take the biggest win of his career—and the first cobbled monument ever to go to a Spaniard.

BMC’s George Hincapie is next on our list of favorites, and is another man hoping a new team and some incredible form might propel him to the win that’s eluded him throughout his career. Hincapie’s progressed nicely through the classics, following his 4th place in Ghent-Wevelgem with a 6th place in the Tour of Flanders. Hincapie has indeed fielded some criticism for what seems to be a penchant for missing the “big move”—Sunday’s Ronde seemed to add fuel to the fire. Optimists like me hope last Sunday was just an indication that Big George is peaking just in time for Roubaix, a race a bit more suited to his powerful style. He enters Sunday as Co-captain with Marcus Burghardt, a man who could certainly ease the pressure on George in a race where he’s often found himself alone earlier than most. Alessandro Ballan would have been another valuable asset, but he’s been scratched following a “suspension” due to his rumored involvement in the Mantova doping investigation. Like Flecha, Hincapie needs to take advantage of a possible Cancellara-Boonen stalemate should the two top favorites prove unwilling to take the bull by the horns. If George can pull it off, it will be the finest day of his long career, and quite possibly all he needs to call it one too.

Our last 4-Stone favorite again faces the difficult task of trying to win the race for himself while riding in support of more-favored rider. Saxo Bank’s Matti Breschel appeared to be the strongest man in last Sunday’s Tour of Flanders before a mechanical and a botched bike change ruined his day. Now he comes to Roubaix eager to prove to himself and his suitors for 2011 that he’s the real deal. If he plays his cards right, he might just get his chance, as a Roubaix is a race where loyal teammates often find themselves in winning situations—especially riding for heavy favorites. (Just ask Servais Knaven.) Remember, Breschel finished 10th in Roubaix last year, a result he earned more or less on his own merits. With such a crowded situation at the top of the field, Breschel’s just the type of man to take advantage of the logjam to win it all for himself—if he can ride with more calm and poise than he did last week.

3-Stone Favorites 

While perhaps, a step below Matti Breschel, Stijn Devolder’s another rider who could benefit from his team captain’s status as top favorite. The last two years, Devolder’s come to Roubaix on the downswing following wins in the previous Sunday’s Tour of Flanders. His form seems a bit late this year though, something that might just push him over the edge in Roubaix—a race where he’s showed some potential in the past, albeit with nothing to show for it. This year, with dry conditions and a supporting role, Devolder might just add a Paris-Roubaix to his two Flanders victories. If he does, look for Quick Step’s post-race press conference to contain more fireworks and/or icy stares than the race itself.

Along with Hincapie, I’ll be rooting for Katusha’s Filippo Pozzato to win tomorrow’s race. While enjoying the form of his life heading into the Tour of Flanders, Pozzato was forced to fly home with a nasty flu during the 3-Days of DePanne. Pozzato’s back now—he finished Wednesday’s Scheldeprijs—but admits to being a step below where he was two weeks ago. While it remains to be seen where exactly his fitness lies, it’s clear that Pozzato feels no pressure for Sunday—and that’s a good thing. Roubaix’s a race where anxiety and nervousness can take their toll—cases in point: Flecha and Hincapie. If Pozzato feels good and has a chance to play his card, he could go one step higher than last year’s 2nd place, becoming the first man to win as Italian Champion since Andrea Tafi in 1999.

I guess there’s something about Roubaix and near misses. Cervelo Test Team’s Thor Hushovd could have won last’s year edition had he not crashed on the Le Carrefour de l'Arbre sector, 20 kilometers from the end. This year, Hushovd’s not had the season he and his team were expecting, with sickness, injury, and poor form taking their toll on what was hoped would be a breakthrough season the team. That said, as many of the favorites certainly know, Hushovd’s not to be discounted. He’ll make the splits during the middle third of the race; it’s the final sectors that will determine whether Mighty Thor becomes the second Scandinavian winner of the Hell of the North. The good weather works in his favor, eliminating one variable from an already chaotic and nervous event.

Speaking of second chances, Omega Pharma-Lotto’s Leif Hoste might be known more for his missed opportunities in the Tour of Flanders—he’s finished second three times. This year, Hoste rode a solid Ronde in support of Phillippe Gilbert; as a result he’ll have a strong team including Greg Van Avermaet and Jurgen Roelandts at his disposal in Roubaix. Another rider who could capitalize on hesitation at the top, Hoste will need to demonstrate a willingness to make the race for himself should the opportunity present itself—something we have yet to see from the Belgian. Lotto’s the only team not to have won a race this year—there’s no better time than now for Hoste to end that streak.

Marcus Burghardt has quietly proven himself to be one of the most consistent riders in the cobbled classics over the past few years. He’s overlooked by virtue of the fact that his breakthrough win preceded several top finishes; usually the opposite is the case. Technically the Co-captain of the BMC squad taking the start in Compiegne, Burghardt might have to defer to George Hincapie’s latest attempt to add Paris-Roubaix to his resume. That said, like Breschel and Devolder, Burghardt might find a supporting role just the leash he needs to position himself for a win—especially if other teams give their lieutenants similar opportunities. And with Hincapie known for his “it’s all about the team” mentality, he’ll have an advantage over men with more jealous leaders.

2-Stone Favorites

I can’t understand why Tyler Farrar’s not getting more attention following his solid run of results leading into this weekend’s race. With top-10 finishes in Ghent-Wevelgem and the Tour of Flanders, Farrar clearly has the legs to handle 200-plus kilometers of hard racing and still have something in the tank for the finale. His win in Wednesday’s Scheldepriis indicates his form is still rising. While Farrar has said he’s riding in support of Martijn Maaskant and Johan Vansummeren, I see those comments as nothing more than a smokescreen as Farrar’s clearly a step above his two Benelux teammates. Do I think Farrar can win? No. Do I see him finishing in the top-10 and possibly top-5? Absolutely. While many view Farrar as a true field sprinter, I see him as more of classics rider—like Museeuw early in his career. That’s a bold comparison, I know; but after Sunday, it might just prove prophetic.

Lars Boom leads Rabobank into Sunday along with Joost Posthuma. While Boom plays down the role his cyclocross background will have, I think it merits at least some attention for the confidence it could give the Dutchman heading into the race’s rougher patches of pavé. While Boom might still be a few years away from being a serious candidate for the win, he could find himself in a breakaway that might propel to a top-10 result. For a nation starved for a true cobble-contender, that’s an accomplishment worthy of merit.

1-Stone Dark Horses

Peter Sagan was inexplicably left home for a few weeks following his two stage wins in Paris-Nice. While I understand the need to protect the young Slovakian’s development (he’s only 20), I can’t understand why he didn’t at least deserve a start in Milan-San Remo. I guess management was afraid of Daniele Bennati being upstaged. Regardless, Sunday is Sagan’s first start in a classic—what a stage for a debut! And while the odds are overwhelmingly against him, consider these 3 things: Sagan has proven unfazed by the top-level competition he’s faced so far this season; he finished 2nd in the 2008 junior Paris-Roubaix; and he’s a former World Junior Cyclocross Champion. While he might be forced to ride for Manuel Quinziato and Daniel Oss, by the end of the day Sunday, expect to see Sagan’s name near the top of the results.

Like the now-retired Wilfred Peeters, Matthew Hayman is a super-domestique deserving of one big day. He rode an aggressive race in last week’s Tour of Flanders, at one time escaping from the front only to be caught by the eventual winning move. A rider capable of high wattage outputs on the pavé, Hayman is more of a sentimental favorite than anything else. At the end of the day, he’ll defer to his captain Juan Antonio Flecha; but once his work his done, a top-10 finish is certainly within the Australian’s reach.

Others to watch include BBox's Steve Chainel, another talented young star who's proven his mettle thus far this spring; Bernhard Eisel a savvy rider benefiting from several departures from HTC; and Bjorn Leukemans, a man hoping to show the ASO just what it's missing by not inviting his Vacansoleil team to the Tour.

So there you have it, Pavé’s 2010 Paris-Roubaix Preview. I’s interesting how closely it compares to last year’s imaginary 2010 Preview. Will the result resembles last year’s as well? Only time will tell.

For now, enjoy the race—you can follow Pavé on Twitter for live commentary—and share your comments and picks below.

Monday Musette - Milan-San Remo Wrap-up

Saturday’s Milan-San Remo went-off without a hitch--despite the weather’s best attempts to ruin the day. After 298 kilometers of racing in cold, rainy conditions, it was a Spaniard who ended-up with the victory. Funny how two men from warmer, sunnier climates have taken wins in two of the season’s grimiest races thus far. Here’s what we learned:

1. I remember watching the 1999 World Championship Road Race in Verona, Italy with friends on a television in my apartment in Leuven, Belgium. When a young, unknown Spaniard surprised a select group of favorites including Francesco Casagrande, Frank Vandenbroucke, and Jan Ullrich, we all felt a bit ripped-off. But after 2 more World Titles, 7 Vuelta stage wins, 4 Tour stage wins, 1 Ghent-Wevelgem, and now 3 Milan-San Remo’s I think it’s time for me to officially apologize to Oscar Freire for years of underrating him. With the changes to this year’s Belgian calendar, Freire has a terrific opportunity to take yet another win in Sunday’s Ghent-Wevelgem—especially since many of his main rivals might choose to take Saturday’s E3 Prijs more seriously. Congratulations, Oscar. I won’t overlook you again—at least for one more week.

2. Tom Boonen was satisfied with a respectable 2nd place in San Remo—even though Freire blew his doors off in the sprint. What impressed me most was Boonen’s positioning on the Cipressa and Poggio—he rode attentively and comfortably at the front of the peloton, consistently placed within the first 10 or so riders. Clearly his form for Flanders and Roubaix has arrived. Unfortunately, I wonder if he might find himself too heavily marked in Flanders to take a third win. On the other hand, it’s essentially every man for himself on the pavé of Paris-Roubaix—at this point only Pozzato, Hushovd, and Cancellara look to have the condition to ride with him there. Then again, those races are still 2 and 3 weeks away—maybe it’s too soon to speculate?

3. As for Pippo Pozzato, he seemed to ride as if he had read the “This will come down to a sprint” writing on the wall. Knowing he had relatively little chances against sprinters such as Freire, Boonen, Bennati, and Hushovd, he seemed content to treat the race’s finale as an opportunity to test his legs on the attack. To be honest, when he rolled-off the front in pursuit of Vincenzo Nibali with 2km to go, I thought he would take his second victory—too bad the rest had other things in mind. At Flanders though, they might find catching up to Pozzato an entirely different enterprise.

4. And speaking of Hushovd, he made the leading group, ultimately sprinting to a slid 6th-place finish. With Flanders and Roubaix still weeks away, Thor looks to have starting his crescendo at just the right time. Unfortunately, it was also announced that he won’t have the support of Heinrich Haussler; his knee injury seems to be worse than expected, keeping out of races until later this spring.

5. Philippe Gilbert’s attack on the Poggio and subsequent 9th place finish confirmed his candidacy for a win in Flanders—Roubaix’s not very suited to his strengths. While his attack had little effect on the race itself, it served noticed to everyone—including the Belgian press—that he’s not to be overlooked.

6. And finally, we must mention Fabian Cancellara, another rider who led a quiet build-up to Saturday’s race. Spartacus rode comfortably with the lead group, finishing the day in 17th place. Like Hushovd, he appears on-track for a solid cobbled campaign.

7. Moving away from the pre-race favorites, Quick Step’s Sylvain Chavanel looks to be peaking quite nicely. If Boonen finds himself too heavily marked, Chavanel could play Devolder’s role in Flanders, possibly getting the win we all know he deserves. Regardless, his condition means teams will have two Quick Step riders with which to contend; an advantage few teams are able to match.

8. BMC’s Marcus Burghardt was his team’s only rider to finish with the leaders. As he seems to be peaking a bit sooner than his teammates Ballan and Hincapie (both of whom came in with the second group, 1:40 behind), look for him to impress this Sunday in Ghent-Wevelgem, a race he won in 2007. The German has also recorded top-5 finishes in both Dwars door Vlaanderen and the E3 Prijs in the past—it’s a shame they weren’t invited to Dwars, but it still could be a good weekend for the squad.

9. As we expected, Colnago’s Sacha Modolo finishing 4th on Saturday, continuing his string of top results from Tirreno-Adriatico. I know it’s a bit early to talk transfers, but look for him to be snapped-up by a team with an aging sprinter before next season—Lampre and Katusha might be possibilities—especially if he manages to grab a stage win or two in this year’s Giro.

10. Liquigas rode a fantastic race for Daniele Bennati with Vincenzo Nibali and Roman Kreuziger playing roles as prominent as we expected. Unfortunately, Bennati could manage no better than 5th. Clearly he’s a second-tier field sprinter, able to win only when better, faster competition is absent. Stick to Tirreno, DePanne, and the Vuelta, my friend. And by the way, give Liquigas the first “What Were They Thinking?” Award of 2010 for leaving Peter Sagan—a double stage-winner in Paris-Nice—at home.

11. Unfortunately, Tyler Farrar’s performance Saturday might put him in the same category as Bennati—although Bennati made it to the finish with the lead group. If Farrar’s team can’t position him well in a finale as straightforward as Milan-San Remo’s then what will they do in the cobbled classics, races with much more difficult profiles?

Two final thoughts from Saturday:

12. What the heck was Stefano Garzelli doing on the Poggio? Several sources claimed he attacked, but in my opinion he simply set a hard pace—but for whom?

13. Did you notice the prevalence of super-deep carbon fiber rear wheels? If this is indeed a new trend, I don’t get it. But I’m like that.

Time permitting, I’ve got a big week planned for Pavé. Here’s the schedule for the next several days:

Tuesday: Dwars Door Vlaanderen Preview
Wednesday: 5 Questions for the Cobbled Classics
Thursday: Dwars Door Vlaanderen Wrap-up/What We Learned
Friday: Weekend Preview(s) E3 and Criterium International
Saturday: Ghent-Wevelgem Preview

It’s an ambitious program, but I think I’m up for it—at least I hope so.

Thanks for reading! Share your comments below

Milan-San Remo Preview

It’s a bit of shame that when we talk about the favorites for Milan-San Remo we look at sprinters.  Maybe it’s just the way the sport’s evolved over time, but it seems that the likelihood of a true breakaway succeeding gets slimmer and slimmer every year.  And worse, while it used to be that only those sprinters able to make it over the Cipressa and Poggio would have a chance for the victory, now just about everyone has the ability to make it to the final straightaway down the Via Roma with a chance for the win.  Then again, any race approaching 300 kilometers in length has to be taken seriously—no matter how the victor gets it done.

Regardless, La Primavera’s a beautiful race that any rider would be pleased to win. This year it once again looks as if sprinters will rule the day with Quick Step, Katusha, Garmin, Liquigas, and Sky all likely to work to bring a relatively intact group to the line.  Interestingly, many of these teams also possess some of the more dangerous threats to win from a breakaway—I wonder what the result will be should a select group of lieutenants escape before the line.  Would Quick Step chase down a group containing Chavanel?  Would Rabobank bring back a break containing Boom or Nuyens?  What will Katusha, Sky, and Liquigas do if Kolobnev, Flecha, and Kreuziger find themselves with a sizable gap at the top of the Poggio?  And let’s not forget the Acqua Sapone’s and Androni Giocatoli’s of the world—they have no other choice than to attack, attack, and attack some more.  These teams will make things interesting should the bigger squads prove resistant to animating the race.

Truly, the joy in Milan-San Remo comes from watching these scenarios unfold.  So without further ado, let’s take a look at the favorites for Saturday’s Milan-San Remo, the first true classic of the season:

Fotoreporter Sirotti

 

5-Stone Favorites

Tom Boonen - Quick Step only has 4 wins so far this season and they’re nothing to write home about.  But that could change Saturday, as Tom Boonen heads into Milan-San Remo as the odds-on favorite to take the win. Boonen hasn’t been shy about his desire to win Milan-San Remo, and judging from the form he’s displayed over the past few weeks he’s clearly ready to do it.  He’s powerful to make it over the Cipressa and the Poggio with the lead group.  With a unified team dedicated to getting him to the line first, Boonen just might add a Milan-San Remo to his 2 Tours of Flanders and 3 Paris-Roubaix victories—quite an impressive classics resume!

Fotoreporter Sirotti

Filippo Pozzato – Like Quick Step, Katusha’s won only a few races so far this year, but don’t let that fool you—they have one of the most talented squads in the professional peloton. Filippo Pozzato already has one Milan-San Remo win under his belt—he’s hoping to add another.  But while the wins haven’t come for Pippo yet this year, he’s made his presence known at the front of races including the Omloop Het Nieuwsblad, L’Eroica, and several stages in Tirreno-Adriatico.  Milan-San Remo is the first target in what Pozzato hopes will be his finest spring yet—one that he hopes will include victories in the Tour of Flanders and Paris-Roubaix as well.  Look for this to be the beginning of a terrific duel between Pozzato and his Belgian nemesis, one that could last the next 3 weeks.

Fotoreporter Sirotti

Edvald Boasson Hagen - Of all the teams making splashes this past off-season, Team Sky appears to be getting the quickest returns on its investment. Hagen’s already won several races this year, including the final stage of Tirreno-Adriatico earlier this week, and his powerful sprint makes him a top favorite for Milan-San Remo. Hagen’s also an attacker though—if he looks around after the Poggio and doesn’t like what he sees, don’t be surprised to see him attack before the line in a fashion similar to Tchmil and Cancellara when they won on the Via Roma.

4-Stone Favorites

Tyler Farrar - Garmin comes to Milan-San Remo hoping Tyler Farrar can get the team its first win in a major spring classic.  Farrar will need to make it over the Cipressa and the Poggio in the lead group while hoping some of the competition—like Hushovd and Tom Boonen—does not to have a chance for the victory.  And while he might not have to worry about Hushovd, Boonen appears to be at the peak of his fitness.  Still, Farrar’s beaten Boonen before; if things go right for him and his team, Garmin might just find itself on the top step of the podium.

Oscar Freire – Freire’s had a quiet build-up to this year’s Milan-San Remo, but he’s a rider whose experience cannot be ignored.  With a talented team supporting him, Freire could easily take his third Milan-San Remo title.  Lars Boom and Nick Nuyens are two excellent wild cards; both would make excellent decoys in the race’s later phases.  Look for one of them, likely Boom, to attack on the Cipressa, ultimately forcing other teams to chase.  Freire’s greatest strength is his ability to handle the hills; he’s usually the last of the sprinters to be dropped on climbs like the Cipressa and Poggio.  He’s also extremely cunning; of all the riders to have received little press this week, he’s the one to take most seriously.

Philippe Gilbert – Omega Pharma - Lotto’s Gilbert won two classics in a week last autumn when he rode to dominating victories in Paris-Tours (a race for the sprinters) and the Tour of Lombardy (a race catered to climbers).  Like many riders, Gilbert’s had a quiet season thus far, slowly riding himself into form in Qatar, Oman, and Paris-Nice.  A true all-rounder, Gilbert’s a legitimate contender in just about every major classic save Paris-Roubaix.  His team’s full of strong men capable of keeping Gilbert fresh for the two climbs late in the race.  If he makes it over the Poggio in a group with a gap to the pure sprinters, he could add a third classic to his resumé.  He’s also candidate for a last-second dash for the line before the sprint has started.

Daniele Bennati - Tom Boonen’s pick for victory, Daniele Bennati comes to the race in peak form.  He won Stage 3 of Tirreno, beating Petacchi, Farrar, and Flecha in the process.  Like Freire, Bennati has a talented team of men surrounding him, two of them—Vincenzo Nibali and Roman Kreuziger—are perfect candidates for peloton-weakening attacks on the Cipressa and Poggio.  Were I driving the car, Nibali would be given the task of attacking and/or covering on the Cipressa while Kreuziger would give it his all on the Poggio.  The rest would ride support for Bennati, keeping him out of trouble and making sure he’s well-placed for an ensuing sprint.  If Bennati hits the Via Roma in good position, he could bring home the win for the tifosi.

Thor Hushovd - The Mighty Thor finished 3rd here last year—he essentially won the “field” sprint behind Haussler and Cavendish—but this year his fitness has been a bit of a mystery.  He was all but absent at the Omloop Het Nieuwsblad, but then practically rode himself into the ground at Kuurne.  In Tirreno he failed to wow us, but that might just be a smokescreen.  Without the injured Heinrich Haussler, Hushovd loses a valuable ally—other teams will be able to key on him exclusively should he find himself isolated.  Still, Thor’s not someone to ignore, especially in a race often ending in a bunch sprint.

3-Stone Favorites

Marcus Burghardt – At this point in the season, Burghardt seems to be BMC’s best shot for victory tomorrow.  He rode a solid Tirreno-Adriatico, even making an appearance in the break with Tom Boonen during Stage 6.  With Hincapie, Kroon, and Ballan riding support, he could be granted a relatively stress-free ride to the finish where he could surprise everyone in a sprint.

Alessandro Petacchi – Petacchi’s gracefully entering into the twilight of his career having made the move from LPR to Lampre.  With Danilo Hondo providing lead-outs, he seems to have regained some of the speed that saw him win this race in 2005.  That said, despite several early-season successes, I think Petacchi’s a step below riders like Boonen, Hagen, and even Oscar Freire—especially after his crash before Tirreno.  A top-5 finish might be a more reasonable expectation for this aging star.

2-Star Favorites

Bernhard Eisel – I might regret it by tomorrow afternoon, but I don’t consider Mark Cavendish one of the favorites for tomorrow’s race.  He’s had an inconsistent season thus far, with no wins having been added to his name.  HTC’s best chance for a win might just be one of Cavendish’s lead-out men, Bernhard Eisel.  Eisel’s career lacks a big win, but don’t let that fool you; he’s a talented sprinter who often is often asked to ride for the bigger names within his team.  Can he win?  That might be a bit of a stretch, but a good result is certainly well within his reach.  Watch for his teammate Matthew Goss as well, the young Australian is on the way up and could mix it up at the finish as well.

Matti Breschel – Saxo Bank’s had a quiet season thus far, and while many think Cancellara’s their top man for MSR, I think he’s a better bet for the cobbled classics in a few weeks time.  Saxo’s better challenge might come from Matti Breschel, someone who has proven abilities in a sprint.  Like Petacchi and Eisel, Breschel’s a bit of a long shot, but surprises have happened here before.

Maxim Iglinski & Enrico Gasparotto - Don’t be fooled into thinking Astana’s a one-trick pony.  They have men not named “Alberto” who have scored wins so far this season and the team has ridden aggressively in every race it has entered.  Two riders deserve mention as outside favorites for Milan-San Remo: Maxim Iglinsky and Enrico Gasparotto.  Iglinsky won this year’s L’Eroica, Italy’s version of Paris-Roubaix, and Gasparotto won a stage in Tirreno-Adriatico.  A win in San Remo would certainly be a surprise—but then again, stranger things have happened.

Mattia Gavazzi & Sacha Modolo – Colnago’s talented pair of sprinters scored some top finishes in Tirreno, look for one of them in the top-10 on Saturday, particularly if other riders sit-up once they feel they’re out of contention.  These aren’t necessarily riders worth placing bets on, but when you’re on the Sunday group ride, you can say you weren’t surprised to see them in the front.

Stefano Garzelli & Michele Scarponi – It’s been a while since we saw an attack from the Poggio survive to the finish, but if it were to happen this year, I expect one or both of the top-2 men from Tirreno to be involved.  Their teams don’t possess the sprint strength of other contenders and they’ll have free rein to try their hand in a breakaway.  In Italy’s most important one-day race, look for both to attack in front of their home audience.

Final Prediction?

Certain races start to follow scripts over time, and Milan-San Remo’s proven no different over the past decade.  This year I think we’ll see a race similar to 2009, but with different players in the leading roles.  I think Boasson Hagen will play Heinrich Haussler, perhaps trying a last-second move rather than take his chance against a large group of field sprinters.  Like Haussler last year, he’ll be caught just before the line—by Tom Boonen.  Tyler Farrar will take advantage of the chaos to take third, taking Hushovd’s place from last year.

As for Pippo Pozzato, I think he’ll descend the Poggio with the leaders, but might not feel comfortable taking chances to take the victory.  They’ll be too many riders, and he’ll perhaps be isolated or poorly positioned coming off the Poggio.  In the end he’ll play it safe, lest he risk his chances in the cobbled classics still to come.

So that’s my Top-3: Boonen gets the win over Hagen and Farrar.

What about you?  Who are your picks for tomorrow?  Share them below.

Tirreno-Adriatico - What We Learned

Italy’s Tirreno-Adriatico wrapped-up yesterday with Sky’s Edvald Boasson Hagen sprinting to the stage win ahead of Alessandro Petacchi and Sacha Modolo. Let’s take a minute or two to discuss what we learned during the “Race of the Two Seas”.

1. Tom Boonen’s ready to win Milan-San Remo. Judging from his win in Stage 2 and a day spent on the attack in Stage 6, Tom Boonen’s sights seem squarely set on a victory in Saturday’s Milan-San Remo. With a team dedicated to his success, another Monument win seems to be a very real possibility for the Belgian Champion.

2. Astana’s not a one-trick pony. While all eyes were on Alberto Contador’s battle with Caisse d’Epargne in France, the rest of his team was quietly turning heads in Italy. Maxim Iglinksy started the ball rolling with a fantastic win in L’Eroica on the Saturday before Tirreno and Enrico Gasparotto took a win in similar fashion in Tirreno’s Stage 5. Furthermore, there was always an Astana rider in the breakaway as they were clearly one of the most aggressive teams to take part. At this point, it’s easy to see why some are quietly wondering if the departure of Armstrong and Co. was a good thing for the team.

3. The jury’s still out on BMC for the cobbled classics. Cadel Evans aggressively raced to a 3rd-place finish, almost winning a stage in the process. Aside from that, there wasn’t much to write home about from BMC. Hincapie claims his form is improving, while Burghardt spent the day in the break on Stage 6, ultimately being one of the last men to be caught. And Alessandro Ballan? Well, there’s not much to say there. Overall, while there were no signs of regression—no sickness or crashes laid claim to any of BMC’s top guns—there was nothing to indicate continued progress toward the team’s northern goals.

4. Fabian Cancellara and his Saxo Bank team were notably absent from the proceedings. This is either really good or really bad for Spartacus’ competitors come the cobbled classics. He and Ballan are two riders hoping for a return to winning form in time for Flanders and Roubaix—here’s hoping their quiet week in Italy is a sign of bigger things to come.

5. It’s not over ‘til the bald Italian sings. Credit Stefano Garzelli and his team for continuing the race for the overall title through the final day. One can only wonder what would happen if two riders were to head into the Tour’s final stage with mere seconds between them—would we see something resembling the last stage at Tirreno?

6. And speaking of Garzelli and good form, it looks like Pavé is coming into form as well—if I may say so myself. Allow me to quote from our Tirreno-Adriatico Preview:

“And let’s not forget the Italians hoping to score a stage or two in front of their home crowds, men like Giovanni Visconti, Stefano Garzelli, and last year’s winner Michele Scarponi come to mind. Here’s where you might find an overall favorite or two, as they’re fast enough to finish near the front in a sprint, while aggressive and lithe enough to perhaps steal time on hillier days. Scarponi won the race last year; he’ll be extra-motivated to defend to his title.”

Obvious choices? Perhaps—but it still feels good to be right every once in a while.

Although I’ve probably just jinxed myself for the rest of the season.

What about you? What did you take away from this year’s Tirreno-Adriatico? Share your thoughts below.

Monday Musette - Omloop Het Nieuwsblad Edition

Photo by Van Wichelen.

In hindsight, going to NAHBS on the weekend of Het Nieuwsblad and Kuurne-Brussels-Kuurne might have been a bad idea as it prevented me from providing you the most up-to-date commentary on the weekend’s action. That said, last week was probably to most popular and well-read week in Pavé’s 1-year history—for that, I thank you.

So even though many others have beaten me to the punch in providing coverage and analysis on the weekend’s events, I’ll still share what I noticed—after all, this is Pavé, right?

1. Nick Nuyens has to be wishing he either: a) rode for Quick Step; or b) was named Tom Boonen, as it might have earned him some neutral support inside the last 30 km of the race. While it can be understood why he had no team car—the gaps were too small between groups and the roads were too narrow—it’s hard to imagine why it took so long for even a motorcycle to arrive with a fresh wheel. Maybe they were taking a break for a pintje before the finish? Maybe they were all waiting with Boonen in case he triple-flatted? Regardless, it cost Nuyens a chance for the victory, and is certainly embarrassing for the organizers. No matter what happens, there has to be at least one moto at the front at all times.

Tire choice was key on a day when punctures ruled. Photo by Van Wichelen.

2. That said, it’s not Roubaix, but the section where Rabobank punctured is one where I might have thought—if I were Rabo’s DS—of planting a few wheels with team staff on foot just in case someone flatted at a time when support couldn’t be had from a car or moto—which is exactly what happened. Teams do it at strategic points in Flanders and Roubaix, why not here? It was clearly a section where the race was going to blow apart; I would have rolled the dice and had a wheel or two waiting after the Molenberg, the Taaienberg, and the cobbled Paddestraat and Lippenhovestraat.

While not the result he wanted, Boonen can feel good about his form. Photo by Van Wichelen.

3. And speaking of the Taaienberg, Tom Boonen’s attack there was breathtaking. I’m not sure how deep he went, but he rode away from everyone at a rate that has to strike at least a little bit of fear into the minds of his competitors. No one was able to follow his wheel, forcing Boonen to soft pedal while waiting for someone—anyone—to join him. One can only wonder what the outcome of the race would have been had he not flatted several kilometers later.

Chavanel and Quick Step are feeling the heat following a poor weekend. Photo by Van Wichelen.

4. Boonen’s Quick Step had a rough weekend, but never fear, its happened to them before. No doubt the Belgian press will criticize and speculate in the weeks to come, but this is clearly a team with its sights squarely set on the monuments still to come. Ask any Belgian if he would take the Omloop over Flanders or Roubaix and his answer would be an astonished, “Nee.”

5. As for Quick Step’s main rival, Omega Pharma-Lotto, the day went a bit better albeit with similar results. I’m not sure why, but most media outlets claim that Flecha was the first to initiate the attacks inside the final 20km—that wasn’t the case. Gilbert attacked first; Flecha countered and then accelerated once he realized Gilbert was riding at his limit, ultimately pulling away for the win. The wild card here was Jurgen Roelandts, who rode a fantastic race in service of Gilbert. His one mistake was perhaps hesitating a bit too long when Gilbert attacked. It was the safest decision, as he would not have wanted to make a move that might have harmed Gilbert’s chances for the win; but Guesdon and Curvers were hanging-on by a thread—Roelandts could have left them easily to join his teammate in the winning move. He tried to bridge once he realized the frailty of his companions, but it was too late to bridge before Flecha counter-attacked. I’m left wondering what would have happened had Roelandts immediately ridden-away with the other two—would Flecha have dropped him as well?

Roelandts can only ponder what might have been. Photo by Van Wichelen.

Regardless, at 24 Roelandts seems to have all the makings of a solid classics rider. He if can continue to progress over the next few weeks, he’ll prove a valuable asset to Gilbert and Hoste later in the spring, perhaps making the loss of Johan Vansummeren a bit less detrimental to Lotto’s chances for a win in Flanders or Roubaix.

6. As for Flecha, give him and Team Sky credit for a well-deserved victory. Sky rode a smart race, almost finishing 1-2 had Boassen Hagen not started his sprint a bit too soon. Flecha’s win was the first for a Spaniard and only the 10th time a non-Belgian has won the Omloop.

Another 2nd-place finish for Haussler. Photo by Van Wichelen.

7. And 2nd on the day? Yup, Heinrich Haussler. His knee clearly not bothering him, Haussler rode an aggressive race, ultimately missing the only move that mattered. His quest for a monument win will be one of the main stories throughout the next six weeks.

So close! Photo by Van Wichelen.

8. 3rd place on the day went to Garmin’s Tyler Farrar. Kudos to Farrar for hanging-in all day to take 2nd in the field sprint—another 10 meters and he might have nipped Haussler. If Farrar continues finds his top-end speed in Tirreno, he’ll have to be considered one of the favorites in Milan San Remo a little more than 10 days from now. Here’s hoping the rest of his team’s up to the challenge as well.

Devolder wasn't smiling after the race. Photo by Van Wichelen.

9. Finally, several top favorites were clearly content to treat patience as a virtue by taking a more reserved approach to the races this weekend. Several of the men we thought would play leading roles were more content with cameos including Pippo Pozzato, Stijn Devolder, and just about everyone on BMC—a team whose performance has me more than a little worried.

This was the last we saw of BMC. Photo by Van Wichelen.

All in all, it was an exciting weekend of racing that typified all that we love about springtime in Belgium. From here the action moves to France and Italy with Paris-Nice and Tirreno-Adriatico before kicking of the monuments with Milan-San Remo.

Share your comments with the rest of below—what stood-out to you from the first Belgian weekend of the year?

Thanks again and enjoy your week!

Why Specialized? Why?

I have to admit, I was pretty disappointed by the news this morning that Specialized was ending it’s agreement to supply bikes for Team Quick Step. I wish I could say I was surprised though. As soon as Specialized inked a million-dollar deal to provide bikes for Alberto Contador, I knew the writing was on the wall. At first I had hoped that Contador’s S-Works contract was a sign that he would indeed be joining Patrick Lefevere’s Quick Step squad for 2010; however, it now seems clear the signals pointed in exactly the opposite direction: not only won’t Quick Step be riding with Contador in 2010, but they won’t be doing it with Specialized either.

Why am I disappointed? Well, I’ve always had a soft spot for Lefevere’s Belgian super-team. Going way back to Mapei-GB, I’ve admired Lefevere’s ability to put together a squad capable of winning so many different races (except in July—hence the desire to lure Contador). During that time, I’ve been a Specialized fan as well, selling, fixing, and riding them off and on for the past 15 summers. I’ve always considered Specialized to be the anti-Trek, more concerned with selling an experience than developing a product with a “name” that everyone thought was “cool”. I have been also impressed to see Specialized’s managers stay true to their mission through their choice of sponsorships. Aside from the Mario Cipollini years, when Specialized decided to go full-bore into the Pro Tour ranks, they chose Festina, Gerolsteiner, Quick Step, and Saxo Bank to open the world’s eyes to their bikes—quality programs, that despite the odd scandal here and there, put forth consistent, successful, and well-respected teams at a time when Trek seemed more content to sponsor a “rider” than a “team”.

But lately, it seems that Specialized feels the only way to beat Trek at the publicity game is to mimic its sponsorship strategy, narrowing its gaze (and opening its wallet) for the sake of three weeks in July. Yes, an argument could be made that a Quick Step sponsorship entails narrowing one’s gaze to three weeks in April, but those three weeks are largely responsible for giving Specialized the European credibility it lacked for many years. And does signing Contador—and inevitably Astana—equal a "no-confidence" vote for Andy Schleck’s Tour chances? Or is Specialized hoping for an all-S-Works podium in 2010, a feat even Trek couldn’t pull-off?

And what of Lefevere? He’s been spurned twice now: first by Contador, then by Specialized. Eddy Merckx quickly swooped and signed a 3-year contract with the team, returning the Cannibal’s bikes to the sport’s top-level--and why not? If you were Eddy Merckx Inc. and you were watching Ridley slowly eat into your domination of the “Made in Belgium” market, wouldn’t you want Tom Boonen and Stijn Devolder riding your bikes in the races your fans care about most?

But while there is perhaps a happy ending for Quick Step and Merckx, the logic behind Specialized’s choice still escapes me. First off, who will fill the void left by Quick Step in the cobbled classics? Maybe Fabian Cancellara, but it remains to be seen if he has a team able to dominate like Quick Step has the past two years. And yes, Contador has won the Tour twice and appears to be the most talented Grand Tour rider since that American guy who rode bikes made by that other American brand. But does Specialized really want the baggage that might come along? Contador’s played a 3-month game of cat-and-mouse with the press and the 4 teams most eager to sign him (one of which being a team Specialized already sponsored and could have easily given the extra money needed to make the deal go through). He’s also demonstrated some immaturity and slight arrogance by picking a fight with the one rider possessing the talent, the team, and the connections necessary to topple him next July. And most of all, Contador’s displayed a complete lack of judgment by apparently agreeing to a contract with Astana, a team that hasn’t been guaranteed a Tour invitation yet and boasts not one, but two high-profile, convicted dopers. It sounds like exactly the kind of guy an American brand from Northern California would want to trust with its image and branding, right? In the end, I guess it all comes down to wins; something Specialized was not lacking from it’s other deals, but will certainly be banking-on this July.

Overall, to me it seems to be the kind of move reserved for a company more concerned with image than substance and less worried about maintaining a network of dedicated fans and owners. Maybe they want to attract folks who ride their bikes because “that guy does too” and not because of the bikes—or the company—themselves. Maybe I’m just being naïve. Maybe I’m more of a curmudgeon than I give myself credit for.

In the end, it looks like Specialized—rather than follow the road less traveled—has instead opted for the 4-lane, concrete superhighway to “mainstream popularity” constructed by Trek over the past 10 years. Today that highway has led them to Contador and Astana—a rider and a team that even Trek had the good sense to abandon. What does that say?

Congratulations, Specialized! You were the only major bike company that I thought did things “the right way”. Now it appears you’re just like all the rest.

Anyone selling a Team SC?

Vuelta d'Espana Preview

It’s back to school time, so that means it’s time for the annual 3-week party known as the Vuelta d'Espana. Seriously, I remember hearing of fights among team personnel over who would get to work the race—it’s that much fun.

For the riders though, it’s a bit of a different story, especially for those coming to the race with ambitions of one sort of another. Looking over the latest start list in fact, it’s pretty easy to sort the riders into categories based upon their expectations and hopes for this year's race. Let's take a stab at it.

Redeemers
The Redeemers come to the race hoping to salvage their seasons. Maybe they were injured and missed a big race or two, maybe they were suspended and are trying to return to their former glory days, or maybe they just spent the season searching for form that never came. Regardless, these men come to this year’s Vuelta hoping to erase the past with a win in the year’s final Grand Tour.

1. Cadel Evans tops the list of Redeemers this year. An utter disappointment at the Tour de France (a race he was expected by many to win), Cadel comes to the start in Rotterdam looking to win his first Grand Tour. Silence-Lotto has given him a solid team capable of getting him where he needs to be for the victory, but it will be all up to Cadel to keep his head in the race against some fierce competition. When he’s on his game, he’s a force to be reckoned with; but when he’s not he races with the temperament of a pubescent teenager. He better take advantage now, in what could be his last real shot for Grand Tour glory.

2. Alejandro Valverde makes his 2009 Grand Tour debut at a race he would most certainly love to win for his home fans. He wasn’t allowed to start the Tour this year due to his Italian racing ban, and his team appears to be eager to sign one of his fiercest rivals, fellow Spaniard Alberto Contador. A win by Valverde might convince his management that Albie’s not worth the extra millions, a poor outing might just put the nail in his Valverde's Grand Tour coffin. For my money, I’m hoping Valverde makes this his last attempt at Grand Tour greatness; he’s much more suited to the Ardennes Classics and shorter stages races. Can you imagine how he would do were he to focus exclusively on those?

3. Remember last year when Kim Kirchen won Flèche-Wallone and then spent a week or two making everyone think he could win the Tour? Seems long ago, doesn’t it? Yes, he was injured for the better part of the season, but he’s better now and has enough racing in his legs to warrant consideration here. His situation isn’t nearly as critical as Evans’ or Valverde’s, but he certainly could use a good result to remind everyone of just how talented he is—or was.

4. And of course, one cannot forget Alexandre Vinokourov, whose need for redemption needs no explanation.

Other candidates: Philipe Gilbert, FDJ, Euskaltel-Euskadi

Builders
The Builders come to the Vuelta hoping to build form for the season’s final month, namely the World Championships, Paris-Tours, and the Tour of Lombardy. Most of these riders can’t logically claim to have ambitions for the GC; they’ll be looking for stage wins and opportunities to test their legs against their peers. In many cases, these men are also seeking redemption, using the Vuelta to help them find it in the season’s waning moments. A bit risky perhaps, but a stage win or two along the way never hurts, no?

1. Tom Boonen might also be considered a Redeemer in the sense that his Tour de France was an entirely lackluster affair. He started the season well with his usually impressive Classics campaign. Then the wheels fell-off when Tommeke tested positive—again—for cocaine—again. His team fought for and won the right to bring Tom to the Tour where he spent more time flatting and falling than sprinting and winning. He then announced he would ride the Vuelta in the hopes of reminding everyone that he’s one of the top sprinters in the world--and to gain some form for World’s. If can build the fitness he needs for a big win later, while winning several stages, he might just kill two birds with one stone. If he can’t, his fans will spend the off-season wondering what could have been instead of celebrating what was.

2. Like Boonen, Damiano Cunego comes to Spain hoping to build the form he needs to make everyone forget what’s been a pretty disappointing season so far. He failed to score a Spring Classic win and was nowhere close to being a factor in his beloved Giro. Perhaps more so than Boonen, the Worlds parcours actually suits Cunego’s strengths though, and now without Danilo “It’s A Conspiracy” Di Luca in the picture, he might have a team entirely dedicated to helping him get it. Cunego needs to ride smart, treating the Vuelta strictly as training, lest he risk doing too much too soon. Sure, he can go for a stage win now and again, but he cannot do so if it means burning too many of the matches he’ll need for success at Mendrisio and Lombardy.

3. Alessandro Ballan would like to defend his World Title; unfortunately, he might find the course and the competition a bit too much for his talents. That said, there’s always Paris-Tours, a race much more suited to his skills. The Vuelta will help him get where he needs to be. Fabian Cancellara would also like another World Title in the ITT. He’s racing for his home fans at Mendrisio, and the Vuelta will provide just the training he needs to ensure they don’t go home disappointed.

Others: Bjorne Leukemans, Lars Boom, Oscar Freire, and Carlos Barredo

Asserters
The Asserters come the Vuelta hoping to prove that they warrant the hype they've been given at point or another. They could be a young sprinter hoping to show everyone they deserve to be considered one of the World’s fastest, or an all-round rider looking to make the jump from weeklong race contender to Grand Tour favorite. To them, the Vuelta is a chance to assert themselves as deserving a place at the top of the sport.

1. Andre Griepel was pretty disappointed to have been left-off his team’s roster for the Tour. He comes to the Vuelta hoping to re-assert himself as one of the world’s fastest sprinters. In doing so, he might simultaneously build some form for a race like Paris-Tours and earn himself a fat new contract for 2010—either with Columbia or someone else.

2. Along with Edvald Boassen Hagen, Tyler Farrar was perhaps August’s most successful rider. He comes to the Vuelta looking for a Grand Tour breakthrough. He’s already beaten just about everyone he’ll be competing against in Spain, now he just needs everything to fall into place. His confidence is brimming, his team is dedicated to helping him win, and all that’s left is for him to make it happen. I think he will—several times.

3. Samuel Sanchez comes to the race wearing race number 1. His only task is to end the 3-week race at the same place on GC. He has a team that will certainly be motivated to help him win their home tour and draw attention from the scandal surrounding them after July’s Tour. Frankly though, I don’t see Sanchez as a rider capable of winning a Grand Tour. Like Valverde, he might be suited to hillier classics and weeklong stages races of the Paris-Nice/Pais Vasco sort. Should he prove me wrong though, he will have convincingly asserted himself as one of the world’s finest.

4. And finally, there’s Andy Schleck. Does Andy need to assert himself as one of the world’s best Grand Tour riders? Absolutely not. That said, he’s finished on the podium in both the Giro and the Tour now, and a win at the Vuelta would assert his status as perhaps the greatest threat to Alberto Contador in the years to come. If I were Andy, I would love to go into the off-season with a Grand Tour win under my belt, thus fueling the fire for an impending re-match with Contador in next year’s Tour.

Other Candidates: Roman Kreuziger, Rinaldo Nocentini, Ignatas Konovalovas, Allan Davis, and Fuji-Servetto

Seekers
To put it simply, the Seekers come to the race looking for one thing: a contract for next year. September marks the beginning of the official transfer period as well as the start of the stagiaire audition season. A good ride in Spain can make the difference between a good contract and a bad one, or in extreme cases, no contract at all.

1. Ivan Basso needs the Vuelta to remind everyone—and his potential suitors—that he still has what it takes to win a Grand Tour. His return at the Giro was positive, but it did little to strike fear into the hearts of his rivals. A win or solid placing in Spain might convince a team that Basso’s best days are not behind him. A bad race, and Team Radio Shack might be able to change a digit or two in their latest offer.

2. Simon Gerrans will certainly have offers for next season; the Vuelta will just give him a opportunity to make them as high as he wants them to be. A stage win in Spain and he’ll have bagged one in all 3 Grand Tours—in 2 seasons, no less. The race might also give him a chance to show what he can do on GC; his team contains no threat to his leadership should he choose to go that route.

3. As we mentioned earlier, Tom Danielson finally looks to be worthy of at least some of the hype surrounding him during his Pro Tour career. A good Vuelta will solidify his place on someone’s team next season—maybe even Garmin. A bad race, and he could be looking for work back home on a team hoping to make him their leader for Redlands. (Now I'm sounding like Bobby Julich.)

4. If I were to make a list of Indefensible Claims for this year’s Vuelta, I’d pick Chris Horner to win. Like Gerrans, he’ll have no problem finding a team next year—especially if he decides to follow Lance. But Chris is a wily veteran, and his inclusion on Astana’s Vuelta team shows me that he’s willing to go it alone to prove to anyone watching that he’s got talent. With Alain Gallopin (the man responsible for bringing Chris to FDJ way back when) driving the car, Chris could pull-off the result of his life, giving him the right to demand more dinero from Team Lance or elsewhere.

Other Seekers: Kurt-Asle Arvesen, Matti Breschel, Michael Albasini, Xacobeo Galicia, and Contempolis-AMPO

That said, here are my predictions for this year’s Vuelta Top-5:

1. Andy Schleck
2. Roman Kreuziger
3. Cadel Evans
4. Alejandro Valverde
5. Chris Horner

What about you? Who are your Redeemers, Builders, Asserters, and Seekers for this year’s race? Share your comments below.

Monday Musette - Think Spring!

Here are some things to keep you busy during the Tour’s second rest day:

1. Two weeks ago, I directed you to check-out the Flanders episode of Cervélo TestTeam’s documentary, Beyond the Peloton. The Roubaix episode’s up now too. Some great stuff! How many days until April?

2. And speaking of Roubaix, Red Kite Prayer posted a story—with photos—on Tom Boonen’s early Specialized prototype bike. It’s an interesting look behind the scenes of one of Roubaix’s most successful bikes over the past few years. Remember the days when aluminum was cutting-edge? My how time flies!

3. I've also ordered a copy of the new DVD, A Ride with George Hincapie. Look for a review to follow. I paid for it with my own lunch money, so I'll be able to say whatever I want about it. But if this trailer's any indication, it will be pretty good.



4. The Tour’s in the Alps now. Several years ago, one of Competitive Cyclist’s “What’s New” columnists treated himself to a little Alpine pain-fest. He recounts the experience in the “What’s New” archives. Click here to start at the beginning, then just click “Next Article” to continue through the rest. A fascinating read.

5. In closing, two notes about Pavé itself:

First, I’m sure some of you have noticed a lack of photography over the past several weeks. I’ve come to realize that including photo’s on the site—even when giving credit to the photographer or the site from which they came—is illegal. Not wanting to put Pavé at risk, I’ve decided to forgo photo usage, unless I’m able to obtain the consent of the photographer.

To that end, I’ve started contacting several photographers with the hopes of developing some relationships that might help us enhance the site.

To that end though, if you or someone you know happens to be a photographer—professional or amateur—who might like to contribute, please don’t hesitate to contact me.

And second, I’m not sure how terrific a milestone it is, but last week Pavé made its 100th post. Thank you to everyone for your patronage, your comments, and all the support you’ve provided over the last several months. I'm proud that this has grown from a lunchtime experiment to a site frequented by so many. That said we’ve got several things up our sleeve in the weeks to come; I hope you’ll continue to enjoy what Pavé provides.

Thanks and enjoy the beginning of your week!

Tour de France - Stage 6 - Wrap-up - The Rain in Spain...

It was yet another exciting stage today, thanks in large part to David Millar hoping he could emulate Thomas Voeckler’s last gasp before the line. Unfortunately for Millar, the chase did its math correctly and caught the Garmin veteran with a bit less than 2km to go.

This was the second bout of misfortune for Garmin, since what would have been a terrific chance for Tyler Farrar was rendered moot by his crash with about 15km left in the stage. Farrar fell along with Heinrich Haussler and Mick Rogers; all three men lost over 10 minutes. For Rogers, the crash effectively put an end to his GC hopes; he now lies 159th overall, over 14 minutes back.

And finally, it wouldn’t be a relatively flat stage if we didn’t discuss Tom Boonen’s terrible luck. Hopefully for Tom, bad things do indeed happen in three’s, for this is the third time this week fate has killed his chances for a win. Maybe from here on out he’ll ride with a clean slate? There are still several chances left for him to get a stage as Belgian Champion.

All in all, it was an exciting day capped by a thrilling win for Thor Hushovd. Tomorrow, things really get interesting, with the race's first summit finish to Andorra’s Arcalis.

Come back later for a preview of tomorrow’s events.

Tour de France - Stage 5 Wrap-up - Karma Police?

Congrats, to Tommy Voeckler for a terrific stage win today! Can you believe this was Voeckler’s first stage victory? It's often forgotten that his yellow jersey exploit from several years ago was done without actually having won a stage. Voeckler’s Tour tenacity has finally been rewarded.

Tom Boonen flatted at the wrong time, leaving him off the back just as the peloton split along the coast. In the end it didn’t matter, but you’ve got to wonder if Tom and his team will ever get it together. This is his second bout of dumb luck in only 5 stages. Could it be karma?

And what a shame it was to see Robert Gesink struggling off the back for so long following an apparent fall. It took a while, but Rabobank finally gave their young hope some help, but in the end he still finished several minutes down. But don’t be surprised if the time he lost today is enough to give him the leeway he needs to win a stage, especially in the mountains. Maybe karma will reward Robert for hanging tough today.

Hope you enjoyed the stage today. What insights would you like to share with the rest of us?

Leave your comments below.

Monday Musings - Boonen Etc...

As I’m sure you’ve heard, Boonen’s tested positive—again—for cocaine—again. For now he’s been suspended indefinitely by Quick Step and will most likely miss his second consecutive Tour. Of course, we here at Pave hope for the best in this case, but it’s tough to see how he’s going to talk his way out of it this time. First time, shame on you Tommeke; second time, shame on…um…Quick Step? The UCI? Us? And the third time? Hopefully Tom has a good team of advisors to help him through this both publically and privately. April won’t be the same without him, but he’s running out of second (and third and fourth) chances.

Here's what else is on our minds as the week begins:

1. Alejandro Valverde has been given a 2-year suspension by an Italian tribunal for his alleged role in Operation Puerto. Is anyone else confused? This seems to me like the state of Massachusetts banning Alex Rodriguez from playing baseball within state lines, no? For Valverde, it means no racing in Italy—which means no Tour de France since it passes through. If anyone could offer a clear explanation of the different jurisdictions of the different agencies and countries I’m sure we would all be very appreciative. I can't make heads or tails of this one.

2. Hopefully you’ve been enjoying the Rapha Continental’s Road Journal as much as I have. This is quite a comprehensive and inspirational project that Daniel and Slate have put together, and it’s wonderful to follow them along their journey. Next week’s my chance to lead them on a foray around Central Pennsylvania. Ridelugged’s James and I have mapped the route, checked it twice, and are ready for our turn. On Saturday I logged 90 miles to get my legs ready for the guys—they’ve effectively been riding 10-day blocks of rides averaging 100+ miles. Hopefully I’ll have the stamina to at least make it sporting. When the photos are released, I’ll be the guy at the back hanging onto the car.

http://www.rapha.cc/mississippi-delta

3. For your own chance to ride with the Continental posse, you can sign-up for a Gentleman’s Ride they’re hosting in the DC-area on Friday, May 22nd. If you can take the day off, it will certainly be worth your while. $125 gets you a ticket to ride, food (and drink), and some sweet Rapha gear. Learn more here.


4. The Giro began this past weekend, and it looks to be quite an exciting race. For me, the biggest excitement has come from the developing rivalry between Columbia and Garmin. Before the Stage 1 TTT, Marky-Mark Cavendish once again proved that his sprint prowress is matched only by his ability to run his mouth, saying that Garmin disrespects the Giro by focusing “only” on the TTT. I think we all expected the drama to end with Garmin romping to the win the next day and sticking it to Cavvie by donning the pink jersey. But darn it if the little sprint pixie didn’t put his team’s money where his mouth was. Apparently Garmin was so disappointed that they didn’t even stick around for the end of the stage or to talk to the press (not that there was really any reason too).

Sunday’s stage saw Garmin at the front of the race in the final few kilometers, obviously hoping to help Tyler Farrar beat Cavendish at his own game. Petacchi had something to say about it though. Maybe next year we’ll see more riders on the start line at the Scheldeprijs hoping to hone their sprint form for the Giro.

But here's my question for Cavendish: does he disrespect races by abandoning as soon as the road gets steep? Hmmm...

5. And speaking of the Giro, we’re not ignoring it. We’re just taking the piano, piano approach and slowly building our way into form.

But I'll leave you with a Giro prediction: a classics rider will win tomorrow's Stage 4, and I think it will be Philipe Gilbert.

Enjoy your day!