Pavé’s 2010 Tour de France coverage begins this week with our second annual Tour de France Team-by-Team Preview. As rosters are finalized, we’ll take a look at each team’s prospects for the Grand Boucle, highlighting several key riders as we go. To be fair, we’ll work alphabetically, skipping the teams with rosters still undefined until the final day. Come back daily between Monday and Thursday to get the complete scoop on what we expect to see over the coming weeks. On Friday, we’ll cover what we consider to be the most intriguing questions we hope to have answered by the time the Tour hits Paris a little more than 3 weeks later.
And with a little luck, we’ll be unveiling our new site design too!
So let’s get started!
Astana
Astana looks to win its second-consecutive Tour de France title this July with Spaniard Alberto Contador leading what is essentially a new-look team. Armstrong, Leipheimer, Kloden, Bruyneel, and Trek have all gone to Radio Shack; they’ve been replaced with a new supporting cast of riders (including Alexandre Vinokourov), new management, and a new bike sponsor—Specialized, Trek’s main rival.
Contador’s main support in this year’s Tour will come from a talented, but relatively untested group including Dauphiné stage-winner Daniel Navarro, Paolo Tiralongo, Benjamin Noval, and David De La Fuente. Maxim Iglinksy and Andrei Grivko impressed this spring in several of the classics; they’ll be on the attack during the dangerous first week, easing the pressure on the rest of the team to control the race.
Astana’s real wild card is Vinokourov. Will he be a trusted and loyal ally to Contador, or will he ride for himself if the situation presents itself? He and Contador have raced well together the few times they’ve shared a start list this season—few can forget Contador’s sacrifice for Vino in Liege-Bastogne-Liege, for example. The best case July scenario sees Vinokourov playing the role of dangerous lieutenant to Contador, thus easing some of the pressure on his captain and forcing team’s to think twice before keying-in on the Spaniard exclusively. If all goes well, look for Contador help Vino grab a stage win (and the polka dot jersey?) in the final week—if he has enough of a cushion to spare it.
After Vino, the biggest obstacle on Contador’s road to a third Tour de France title has to be Stage 3 from Wanze to Arenberg Porte de Hainaut. Including several sections of pavé—the last of which is quite rough and less than 10 kilometers from the finish line—this will be a day that several of Contador’s main rivals (especially Lance Armstrong) attempt to gain some time. Astana missed a good chance to get a feel for what they’re facing when they inexplicably skipped this spring’s Paris-Roubaix—although Contador did spend some time training with former Roubaix-winner Peter Van Petegem. Stage 3’s not a day when the Tour will be won, but it is certainly one in which at least one of the overall favorites will lose precious time. Contador and his team will need to ride attentively and confidently in order to avoid falling into an early hole—no pun intended.
Man of the Hour: Without a doubt, Alberto Contador, is Astana’s Man of the Hour. Despite wins and high placings in several other races this season, everything hinges upon Contador’s ability to take home his third Tour de France title—thus leaving him two shy of tying Miguel Indurain for the most wins by a Spaniard.
On the Hot Seat: Specialized paid a lot of money to get one of their bikes under Contador (first) and the rest of his team (second). With their flagship Tarmac SL3 under 2 of the race’s top three overall contenders and the new 2011 Roubaix SL3 under the riders when they tackle the cobbles on Stage 3, there’s a high ceiling on Specialized’s exposure this July. Anything less than a win will be a major disappointment for the American manufacturer.
Up-and-Comer: Maxim Iglinsky impressed many with several top rides this spring including a win in the tough Montepaschi Strade Bianche semi-classic. An aggressive rider who’s unafraid to ride himself into the ground for a win, look for Iglinsky to contend on several of the Tour’s transitional stages—if he’s not working for the sake of his team’s GC interests.
Just Happy to Be There: Alexandre Vinokourov might have been expecting it anyway, but he should be grateful to have a chance to return to the Tour de France—a race he disgraced in 2007. Vino’s riding in support of Contador—he says—but one can expect him to contend for at least a stage win or two and possibly the polka dot jersey.
Feeling Left Out: Oscar Pereiro would have given Astana two Tour-winners on their roster in this year’s race. Unfortunately, the form’s just not there for a man who should probably just be happy he’s on a bike and racing again following his grisly fall in the 2008 Tour.
BBox Bouyges Telecom
Like past years, BBox Bouyges Telecom comes to this year’s Tour de France hunting for stage wins and enough publicity to guarantee the squad’s existence for another year or two. In last year’s Tour, the team won two stages with Thomas Voeckler and Pierrick Fedrigo taking wins on Stages 5 and 9—a successful haul for any French squad. That said, this year’s team has already surpassed its win total from 2009, taking impressive wins in the Critérium International, 3-Days of DePanne, the Giro d’Italia, the Critérium du Dauphine, and both the French road and time trial national championships.
Voeckler—the French national champion on the road—and Fedrigo lead the charge, hoping to add to their impressive Tour résumés. Voeckler seems to shine more from breakaways during the Tour’s flatter stages, while Fedrigo wins more transitional mountain stages on days after the favorites have exerted themselves.
As for the rest, look to see the bulk of the squad’s roster in a breakaway at some point during the 3-week Grand Tour. For example, Nicholas Vogondy won the mountain stage to Rasoul in this year’s Dauphiné—the former French road champion (and current time trial champion), is always a threat to take a stage victory. Otherwise, it’s tough to see anyone making a mark for himself in the overall classification—unless there’s a serious breakaway involved. This is a team built for stage success—and one of the best at garnering it.
Man of the Hour: Thomas Voeckler made a name for himself in the 2004 Tour de France when he escaped with a small group and took the yellow jersey. Battling valiantly before handing the lead back to Armstrong in the Alps, Voeckler came to epitomize the kind of national cycling heroes most fancied by French fans. Every year Voeckler manages to take at least one win to maintain his relevance in the hearts and minds of his countrymen—this year he did it again by taking his second French national championship. He hopes to continue the winning trend in July.
On the Hot Seat: Jean-René Bernaudeau is apparently close to finding a new sponsor for 2011 and beyond, but until the ink is dry, there’s always a chance for things to fall through. With another high-profile performance on the sport’s biggest stage, Jean-René and his team might just seal the deal.
Up-and-Comer: Pierre Rolland finished 8th and took the polka dot jersey as best climber in this year’s Dauphiné. Considered by some to be the next great French Tour rider, this might be Rolland’s last chance to show everyone he hasn’t been overestimated.
Just Happy to Be There: Yukio Arashiro is riding his second Tour de France, his second grand tour of the season after finishing May’s Giro d’Italia. Currently the only Japanese rider in the event, Arashiro is looking to improve upon the third-place finish he scored after a day spent in the break during the Giro’s fifth stage.
Feeling Left Out: Steve Chainel was one of the surprises of this year’s spring classics, taking several top placings to go with his win in Stage 1 at DePanne. While he might appreciate the time off to begin his build for the upcoming cyclocross season, there’s no doubt Chainel would have welcomed a chance to ride his national grand tour.
BMC Racing Team
It looks like BMC’s off-season upgrades had the desired the effects, as the squad was included on the list of invitees to this year’s Tour de France. Now the challenge begins as they attempt to find success in the squad’s first stab at the biggest race in the world.
Cadel Evans leads the team in what is likely to be the first grand tour where he’s not considered among the main favorites for the overall title. All in all, a stage victory in the rainbow jersey and a low top-10 finish in Paris would be a fine result for the Australian, setting him up nicely for the rest of the season.
As other teams before them have found, simply stocking a roster with talent is not all that it takes to find success in the Tour, but with several experienced and proven Tour winners on board, it could be a terrific July for a team eager to prove it deserves mention among the world’s best. George Hincapie, Alessandro Ballan, Karsten Kroon, and Markus Burghardt have all won stages in the past—they’re all hoping to win a stage or two while preparing themselves for important one-day races later in the year.
Man of the Hour: Markus Burghardt has been BMC’s most aggressive rider of late, taking two impressive stage wins in the Tour de Suisse. Look for the former Ghent-Wevelgem winner to be a main contender in next week’s cobbled Stage 3.
On the Hot Seat: Remember when Alessandro Ballan was considered one of the world’s best one-day riders? Well, after an anonymous spring and rumblings that he was one of the riders involved with the Lampre drug scandal, there’s no time like the present for Ballan to win something…anything. After a third-place finish in Saturday’s difficult Italian championship, it appears as if Ballan’s hitting his stride—let’s see what he can do.
Up-and-Comer: Brent Bookwalter seemingly came out of nowhere to place second in Stage 1 of the Giro d’Italia. It will be interesting to see if the talented young American can take another impressive result in the Prologue of his first Tour de France. Last year: Utah; this year: France—an impressive change of scenery, no?
Just Glad to Be There: Rumor has it that Mike Sayers didn’t like me too much when I was with Mercury in 2001—I think he saw me as a young, uninitiated American who did little to deserve his place managing one of the top teams in the sport. Regardless, I’m glad to see Mike has worked his way to the Tour he was promised but never received during his years with Mercury. Always considered one of the hardest working guys in the peloton; it’s nice to see Mike’s years of dedication and perseverance rewarded—even if he never liked me. Congrats, Mike!
Feeling Left Out: While it’s hard to gauge the behind-the-scenes politics of such decisions, I bet there’s a part of Jeff Louder that regrets being left-off the roster for this year’s Tour. Louder’s been racing in Europe for years as both an amateur and a pro, and is one of the riders to have been with BMC since its earliest days. For certain he would have appreciated a chance to be with the team in Rotterdam.
Cervelo Test TeamThe Cervelo Test Team once again begins a major phase of its season without the services of one of its most talented riders, Heinrich Haussler. After missing much of the spring with a knee injury, Haussler looked to be back to his old self with a win in Stage 2 of the Tour de Suisse. Then came his now-infamous tangle with Mark Cavendish at the end of Stage 4, and Haussler’s back on the disabled list.
A stage winner last year, Haussler will certainly be missed by a team appearing to need all the help—and wins—it can get this season. Thor Hushovd is healthy once more; he’ll be hoping to replace his new jersey as Norwegian national champion with a green jersey sometime within the Tour’s first week. With two trips to the professional podium in Paris-Roubaix (he won the race as an amateur as well), Hushovd’s another rider to watch on the pavé during Stage 3.
As for Carlos Sastre, he limps to this year’s Tour following a Giro d’Italia in which he failed to live up to pre-race expectations. With a squad built more around Hushovd’s green jersey campaign than Sastre’s bid for yellow, it appears the team’s confidence in the Spaniard’s hopes to repeat his 2008 victory is on the decline.
If I were Sastre, I would forget the overall, and shoot for a stage win or two in the mountains. On his day he’s perhaps the best pure climber in the peloton. Losing minutes early might lengthen his leash later on, perhaps freeing him for a win in front of his home fans in the Pyrenees.
Man of the Hour: Thor Hushovd put on quite a show in winning the green jersey last year, at one point attacking in the mountains to extend his lead. With Cavendish ailing and nearly a full team of supporters backing him, the stage is set for Thor to take his third maillot vert.
On the Hot Seat: I hate to pick on him, but Carlos Sastre’s 35-years-old and beginning the downside of his career. If he wants to remain a commodity he’ll need to reinvent himself soon—similar to what Richard Virenque did when he began to make his exit. Mountain stage wins and the polka dot jersey are now worthy goals for a man whose best days are behind him.
Up-and-Comer: Ignatas Konovalovas won the final time trial in last year’s Giro d’Italia; now the 24-year-old gets his first start in the Tour. While the jury might still be out on the young Lithuanian, he’s by far the youngest rider on a team chock full of veterans. Look for him near the top of the result sheet in Saturday’s Prologue.
Just Happy to Be There: Jeremy Hunt’s inclusion was sure sign that Cervelo’s all about Thor’s green jersey this July. Hunt’s been a professional since 1996, but this is first Tour de France. Good luck, Jez!
Feeling Left-Out: He rode this May’s Giro and likely had little expectation of riding the Tour, but here’s hoping Ted King gets a shot at the French grand tour one day. One of the sport’s most open and accessible professionals, King’s commentary would have been a worthy addition to the already impressive amount of first-person perspectives into the race.
Cofidis
Like many French teams, Cofidis comes to the Tour eager to animate the race and perhaps win a stage or two. If all goes according to plan, Cofidis will take its first Tour stage since 2008.
Samuel Dumoulin took that last win for Cofidis in Stage 3 of the 2008 event, and if this season is any indication, he appears destined to at least repeat the feat. With six wins to his name, he’s clearly Cofidis’ best chance for a win from a breakaway or small group. But the list doesn’t end there, as Stéphane Augé, Julien El Fares, Christophe Kern, and Rémi Pauriol are all men unafraid to test their legs off the front.
Other than stage wins, Cofidis’ best chance for success—now and in years to come—might sit with the young Estonian, Rein Taaramae. Taarame’s been rising slowly through the ranks for the past few seasons, learning how to ride in smaller stage races before tackling his first grand tour in last year’s Vuelta. He’s had a bit of an up and down season, dropping-out of the Dauphiné before finishing 9th in the Route du Sud. That said, a top-15 or top-20 finish is certainly within reach, giving Cofidis a GC rider for the future.
Man of the Hour: Samuel Dumoulin’s been winning just about everything he enters this season—there’s no reason to think he’ll stop now.
On the Hot Seat: Stéphane Augé hasn’t taken a win since 2008—and he’s 35. ‘Nuff said.
Up-and-Comer: Rein Taaramae’s been on several “up-and-comer” lists for about a year or so. It’s time to see if he deserves the hype.
Just Happy to Be There: Remi Pauriol took two wins early last season before falling into obscurity. Either Cofidis thinks he still has something to show or they’re desperate for bodies—either way, Pauriol’s lucky to have earned the call.
Feeling Left-Out: Maybe I should call this one “Just Happy to Not Be There” as David Moncoutie’s chosen to skip his home grand tour in favor of the Vuelta, a race in which he’s fared much better as of late. Give Moncoutie credit for taking himself out of a race most Frenchman would give anything to contest.
Euskaltel-Euskadi
With its usual mix of Basques and Spaniards, Euskaltel comes to this year’s Tour de France hoping reigning Olympic Champion Samuel Sanchez can contend for a spot on the race’s final podium. While not known much for it, Sanchez has ridden the Tour in the past, finishing 7th in 2008. And with five top-10 grand tour finishes on his resume, he deserves our attention. A talented climber, Sanchez has also proven to be not too shabby in a time trial, winning the final ITT in the 2007 Vuelta.
As is typical for Euskaltel, the team’s chances for a high overall placing depend largely on its ability to make it through the dangerous first week unscathed. Not known for riding at the front on flat, windy stages—the men in orange are often the first to be seen picking themselves up from the tarmac during massive Week 1 pile-ups.
That said, Sanchez could be targeting Stage 2 for an early shot at glory. The 201-km stage from Brussels to Spa tackles several of the climbs Sanchez knows from the Ardennes classics, a series of races to which he’s well suited. With the dangerous Stage 3 to follow, Stage 2 might be a good day for Sanchez to try and build himself a bit of a buffer for the cobbles to come.
Man of the Hour: Sanchez—there’s really no one else.
On the Hot Seat: With the several key stages in the Pyrenees including two days of the Tourmalet, the entire team will feel pressure from their sponsors and fans to take at least one stage in this year’s race. Euskaltel’s been supporting the squad since 1994—with 9 Tours and only 3 stages to show for it, now’s a better time than ever to honor their sponsor’s commitment with a victory.
Up-and-Comer: It’s tough to identify an up-and-comer as Euskaltel went for experience over youth with this year’s roster. That said, there’s a gorgeous new Orbea Orca ready to make its debut; let’s see how it fares!
Just Happy to Be There: Following his polka dot jersey in the Critérium du Dauphiné, Egoi Martinez has to be feeling good about his chances in the KOM competition in this year’s Tour. Last year’s second place finisher in the competition, Martinez would love to ride into Spain as the race’s best climber.
Feeling Left Out: He has no reason to be disappointed, but I’m sure Romain Sicard would have loved to race his country’s national tour this season. An impressive Dauphiné made the possibility all the more tempting, but in the end, cooler heads prevailed—Sicard will have to wait for the Tour of Spain to tackle his first grand tour.
And that’s it for Part 1 of Pavé’s Team-By-Team Tour de France Preview—come back Tuesday for Part 2.
And as always, share your comments below.
Showing posts with label bbox. Show all posts
Showing posts with label bbox. Show all posts
Monday, June 28, 2010
Monday, February 22, 2010
Pavé's 2010 Season Preview - Part 1 (Teams 20-16)
In Belgium, newspapers don’t publish their official season previews until the week before the Omloop Het Nieuwsblad—the official opening day of the Belgian cycling season. I like doing it that way too—it gives a bit of time to get acclimated with the new season before attempting to sort everyone out. So, over the next 4 days, I’ll publish my preview of the Top-20 teams of the 2010 season.
I’ll start with #20 and count backwards all the way to #1. Come back daily between now and Thursday to see where your favorites fall. Enjoy!
#20 – Bbox
If it not for the heroics of Thomas Voeckler and Pierrick Fedrigo in last year’s Tour, this team might not be around this year. Bumped from the Pro Tour after 2009 (although don’t put too much stock in that distinction), Jean-René Bernaudeau’s team comes into the 2010 season once again hoping for some domestic one-day wins and perhaps a stage or two in the Tour will be enough to keep the Euros flowing to the Vendée region’s home team. Still on the strength of their two stars, they make the ranking for 2010—barely.
The bulk of the team’s aspirations fall heavily on the shoulders of Voeckler and Fedrigo. Both ride aggressively in June, July, and August—three of the biggest months in French cycling; and both exhibit the kind of spunk that most French fans seem to appreciate nowadays. As for the rest of the team, you’ll be hearing Pierre Rolland’s name a lot come the Dauphine—he’s yet another in a long line of French “Next Big Things”. While some are growing inpatient, it should be noted that he’s still quite young, so there’s time for him to develop.
In the end, it all boils down to wins for BBox—any wins they can muster. Some are wondering if the Pro Tour snub is the beginning of the end for these plucky Frenchmen. They’ll spend much of 2010 just trying to fend-off what many consider to be inevitable.
Man of the Hour: Thomas Voeckler’s been been a darling of French fans ever since he took the maillot jaune in the 2004 Tour. Luckily for him, he always manages to come through with a big win just as his stock seems to dip. Aside from his Tour stage, Voeckler narrowly missed adding a stage win in the Giro to his palmares when he finished 2nd on Stage 20—maybe this year he goes one better?
On the Hot Seat: General Manager Jean-René Bernaudeau’s got to be sweating a bit. Aside from the heroics of his two stars, his team’s hard-pressed for wins. He needs to develop some new talent quickly. Voeckler and Fedrigo won’t be around forever, and if his team fails to show the consistency it needs to secure long-term deals with major French sponsors, he could be out of a job.
Up-and-Comer: Everyone’s talking about Rolland, but I’m eager to see if Steve Chainel can develop into a classics rider following his strong showing in several races toward the end of the cyclocross season. I know, cyclocross isn’t always an indicator for classics success, but let’s see if Chainel can make the transition from mud to asphalt in time for a top-15 result in the Omloop on Saturday.
Best Pick-up: When was the last time Colnago sponsored a French team? This is clearly a match made in desperation: Colnago must have been desperate for a big-time team—so desperate it went to France; while BBox must have had a tough time finding a domestic sponsor willing to top Colnago’s offer. Regardless, look for BBox to be extra-motivated in this year’s Giro, hoping to honor Ernesto’s patronage with a stage win.
Biggest Departure: Sadly, few riders left BBox following 2009, a testament as to just how dire the situation truly is.
#19 - Ag2r
If it weren’t their brown shorts and several days in yellow during last year’s Tour, would you have even known this team existed? They won five races! Were it not for Nocentini’s July exploits, Vincent Lavenu’s boys might not have even lived to see another year. (Is there an echo in here?)
But this year’s off to a promising start. Nocentini claims he wants to win Paris-Nice; he appears to be on his way to the form necessary to do so following a 2nd place on Mont Faron in the Med Tour and a stage win in the Tour de Haut Var. Paris-Nice is another event entirely; but if Nocentini can come close, perhaps winning a stage along the way, it will go a long way to ensuring this team’s place in the peloton for perhaps another year or two—perhaps easing some pressure come July.
Overall, Nocentini’s a good representative of the type of rider most likely to find success for this team: cunning, punchy, and aggressive when necessary. This is a team that does best when it takes advantage of opportunities presented by others teams trying to dictate the outcome of a race. Case in point: Cyril Dessel. Dessel’s not the type of rider to initiate a race-winning breakaway; but he is just strong enough to hang on for dear life, and perhaps accelerate away for the win at the moment you least expect it. Did you know that Tadej Valjavec has had two top-10 overall finishes in Grand Tours since 2008?
Man of the Hour: Tough to say there is one as any number of Ag2r’s riders could lead the team in wins this season. Of them all, Nocentini seems the most primed for success—at least at this point in time. He could pull some wins in minor stage races, and when in form is an outside contender for a race like Fleche Wallone.
On the Hot Seat: Everyone is on the hot seat. Like many French teams, no roster spot is safe on a team in need of a few quality wins each year to guarantee the renewals of it sponsorship agreements. In particular, Vladimir Efemkin hopes to return to his form from 2008, a year when he finished 11th in the Tour. He needs a solid 2010 to prove the result wasn’t a flash in the pan.
Up-and-Comer: Nicholas Roche turned heads in last year’s Tour with several high finishes. He’s a talented rider with all-round abilities. Ag2r’s hoping 2010 will be the year he gets his first big win. He and Garmin’s Daniel Martin are the future of Irish cycling.
Best Pick-up: You have to love someone with the last name “Champion”. Dimitri Champion scored the sweetest kind of revenge when he won the French National Road Race Championship for the low-budget Bretagne-Armor Lux team the year after getting dropped by BBox. He also won the 1.1 Tour Finistére and last year’s Etape du Tour, which finished atop Mont Ventoux. He’s been seen often at the front of races so far this season—here’s hoping he has what it takes to score a few wins while wearing his national colors.
Biggest Loss: See BBox.
#18 – La Francaise des Jeux
What a start for Marc Madiot’s men in white and blue! If they continue this streak, I’ll soon be looking pretty foolish for ranking them so low.
Or will I? Yes, they’ve won a few races so far this season, and yes, they have some talent (including a rider who finished 10th in last year’s Tour de France). But come June, will wins in the Med Tour and Haut Var still look all that impressive? Don’t get me wrong though, there are some terrific pieces here, including many riders capable of taking wins. But which wins and how many is another story.
FDJ hasn’t had a bona fide star since Baden Cooke. Sure, Sandy Casar’s a terrific rider on his day, an opportunist known for his dramatic Tour stage wins. And yes, Frederic Guesdon won Paris-Roubaix—in 1997. Anthony Geslin won a semi-classic in 2009 and Yauheni Hutarovich has already won several races this season—but something still seems missing.
Like so many of the French teams, FDJ’s strategy seems to involve throwing everything against the wall and seeing what sticks—hardly the way to run a successful program. In the end, success is quite possible for one of the longest-running teams in the sport. But when and from which riders is anyone’s guess. This team needs a true leader, someone the others can ride for, confident in the knowledge that if they do their jobs, he’ll do his. Until they find a truly talented and dynamic lead rider, their destined to pick through everyone else’s scraps.
Man of the Hour: Christophe Le Mevel stunned many with his top-10 finish in last year’s Tour de France. He’s started-off 2010 on the right foot, winning the second stage and the overall title at this past weekend’s difficult Tour du Haut Var. If he keeps his form, together with Casar and Remi DiGregorio, FDJ might have some hope for success in their first major domestic engagement of 2010: Paris-Nice.
On the Hot Seat: And speaking of Remi DiGregorio, when will we see him capitalize on all the potential everyone thought they saw him indicate in the Dauphiné a few years ago? He’s still just 24, but the home fans—and pundits—are growing impatient. Hopefully he’ll continue to display the aggressive riding he showed in the Med.
Up-and-Comer: It’s not all gloom and doom for France though. 2009 was a banner year for French U23 riders, culminating in Roman Sicard’s World Championship win in Mendrisio. Lost in all the excitement over Sicard was young Thibaut Pinot, the winner of the difficult Val d’Aosta stage race in Italy. In Pinot, Marc Madiot might have made his best signing in years—if this young climber comes close to meeting the expectations of those who have seen him ride.
Best Pick-up: Considering there are only 3 newcomers to the roster, signing Pinot has to be the best of this year’s off-season haul for FDJ.
Biggest Departure: Again, not many teams are lining-up to steal riders away from French teams right now—at least not at this level.
#17 – Vacansoleil
Vacansoleil is the epitome of a team trying to do more with less. Look at its stars from 2009: Borzic, Hoogerland, and Westra are hardly household names, yet they accounted for more wins than several teams with bigger budgets and more recognizable rosters. In addition to these three, 2010 sees the arrival of France’s favorite brothers: the Feillu’s. Young Brice endeared himself to many French fans following his fantastic win at Arcalis during the 2009 Tour, while Romain—more of an all-rounder—is a threat in both sprints and from breakaways. Together, they add depth to a squad hoping to steal Skil-Shimano’s wild card invitation to this year’s Tour.
The meat and potatoes of Vacansoleil’s roster come in the form sprinter Borut Borzic and all-rounder Johnny Hoogerland. Borzic won a Grand Tour stage in last year’s Vuelta, while Hoogerland finished 12th overall before taking 5th in the Tour of Lombardy. Of the two, Hoogerland has the higher ceiling, as Borzic doesn’t seem to fare as well when facing the best of the best. Beyond these two and the Feillu’s, there’s a solid backbone of strong men able to ride in support of their leaders while making the most of their own chances when opportunities arise. Of these, Bjorn Leukemans remains an outside bet for a one-day win in one of the Belgian semi-classics. (I promise this will be the last year I say that.)
Man of the Hour: Johnny Hoogerland’s stock is high following a successful final stretch in 2009. His rides in the Vuelta and the fall classics put him on the radar as a talent to watch in 2010. Now the pressure’s on to see if he can raise the bar a little bit higher, perhaps taking a big win or two. Not to be forgotten is Hoogerland’s penchant for cobbles—he finished well in several Belgian races last spring. Look for him in Saturday’s Omloop.
On the Hot Seat: Assuming the ASO grants Vacansoleil an invitation to the 2010, whichever 9 men make the roster will be under the gun to produce at least one stage win. ASO is a fickle organization, one not too keen on giving hand-outs to non-French squads that don’t animate the race. Should Vacansoleil’s boys not score on the big stage come July, in 2011 they might find themselves on the outside looking in.
Up-and-Comer: Brice Feillu won the hearts of French housewives everywhere (we really need a new metaphor) when he won Stage 7 in the 2009 Tour. Now he needs to prove he’s more than just a flash in the pan. This year, I’d like to see him try for a high overall placing in Paris rather than searching for stage glory. It’s a tough choice, as his team will likely be desperate for success; but in terms of this rider’s development, a year following wheels in the mountains could reveal much more about his true potential.
Best Addition: For obvious reasons, the Feillu brothers.
Biggest Loss: Some might consider Baden Cooke’s departure a big deal, but let’s be honest, Borzic’s success made him expendable. Cooke’s much better off as the latest subject of one of Bjarne Riis’ career resurrection projects.
#16 – Euskaltel-Euskadi
With perhaps one or two exceptions, this team’s going to live and die on the back of Samuel Sanchez in 2010. A force to be reckoned with in just about any hillier race, Sanchez is more known for the races he’s just missed winning (too many to list) than those in which he’s actually taken a victory (the Olympics). Big wins just don’t seem to come easily for the daredevil Spaniard.
Looking over the rest of Euskaltel’s roster, Sanchez can take heart in knowing he’ll have no competition for the leadership of his team. Look for him to begin making his mark possibly as soon as Paris-Nice, but certainly no later than the Vuelta Pais Vasco in April. From there, the Ardennes Classics will be next on the agenda before a possible ride in the Tour. All in all, if Sanchez doesn’t start winning some monuments soon, he could be Spain’s version of Michael Boogerd—an extremely talented rider known more for being a bridesmaid than a bride.
Man of the Hour: Without a doubt, Samuel Sanchez.
On the Hot Seat: Sanchez—there’s no one else to share the load.
Up-and-Comer: Romain Sicard won the World U23 Road Race title for France, and then promptly signed with a Spanish team. Remember though, he’s Basque, and riding for Euskaltel is like a kid from North Jersey playing for the New York Yankees. Sicard’s an exciting talent, and Euskaltel’s quickly thrown him in at the deep end, obviously trying to get him top-level experience as quickly as possible. I can’t wait to see what he can do!
Best Pick-up: Sicard.
Biggest Loss: Euskaltel’s biggest loss in 2010 actually occurred in 2009 when Mikel Astarloza tested positive following his Tour stage win. Astarloza’s departure will be missed as he was a strong rider—but the damage to Euskaltel’s reputation could prove much more detrimental to an already fragile team.
And that’s it for Part 1 of Pavé’s 2010 Season Preview. Come back tomorrow for teams 15 through 11 in our Pre-Season Top-20.
As always, share your comments and thoughts below—have we already omitted your favorite?
I’ll start with #20 and count backwards all the way to #1. Come back daily between now and Thursday to see where your favorites fall. Enjoy!
#20 – Bbox
If it not for the heroics of Thomas Voeckler and Pierrick Fedrigo in last year’s Tour, this team might not be around this year. Bumped from the Pro Tour after 2009 (although don’t put too much stock in that distinction), Jean-René Bernaudeau’s team comes into the 2010 season once again hoping for some domestic one-day wins and perhaps a stage or two in the Tour will be enough to keep the Euros flowing to the Vendée region’s home team. Still on the strength of their two stars, they make the ranking for 2010—barely.
The bulk of the team’s aspirations fall heavily on the shoulders of Voeckler and Fedrigo. Both ride aggressively in June, July, and August—three of the biggest months in French cycling; and both exhibit the kind of spunk that most French fans seem to appreciate nowadays. As for the rest of the team, you’ll be hearing Pierre Rolland’s name a lot come the Dauphine—he’s yet another in a long line of French “Next Big Things”. While some are growing inpatient, it should be noted that he’s still quite young, so there’s time for him to develop.
In the end, it all boils down to wins for BBox—any wins they can muster. Some are wondering if the Pro Tour snub is the beginning of the end for these plucky Frenchmen. They’ll spend much of 2010 just trying to fend-off what many consider to be inevitable.
Man of the Hour: Thomas Voeckler’s been been a darling of French fans ever since he took the maillot jaune in the 2004 Tour. Luckily for him, he always manages to come through with a big win just as his stock seems to dip. Aside from his Tour stage, Voeckler narrowly missed adding a stage win in the Giro to his palmares when he finished 2nd on Stage 20—maybe this year he goes one better?
On the Hot Seat: General Manager Jean-René Bernaudeau’s got to be sweating a bit. Aside from the heroics of his two stars, his team’s hard-pressed for wins. He needs to develop some new talent quickly. Voeckler and Fedrigo won’t be around forever, and if his team fails to show the consistency it needs to secure long-term deals with major French sponsors, he could be out of a job.
Up-and-Comer: Everyone’s talking about Rolland, but I’m eager to see if Steve Chainel can develop into a classics rider following his strong showing in several races toward the end of the cyclocross season. I know, cyclocross isn’t always an indicator for classics success, but let’s see if Chainel can make the transition from mud to asphalt in time for a top-15 result in the Omloop on Saturday.
Best Pick-up: When was the last time Colnago sponsored a French team? This is clearly a match made in desperation: Colnago must have been desperate for a big-time team—so desperate it went to France; while BBox must have had a tough time finding a domestic sponsor willing to top Colnago’s offer. Regardless, look for BBox to be extra-motivated in this year’s Giro, hoping to honor Ernesto’s patronage with a stage win.
Biggest Departure: Sadly, few riders left BBox following 2009, a testament as to just how dire the situation truly is.
Fotoreporter Sirotti
If it weren’t their brown shorts and several days in yellow during last year’s Tour, would you have even known this team existed? They won five races! Were it not for Nocentini’s July exploits, Vincent Lavenu’s boys might not have even lived to see another year. (Is there an echo in here?)
But this year’s off to a promising start. Nocentini claims he wants to win Paris-Nice; he appears to be on his way to the form necessary to do so following a 2nd place on Mont Faron in the Med Tour and a stage win in the Tour de Haut Var. Paris-Nice is another event entirely; but if Nocentini can come close, perhaps winning a stage along the way, it will go a long way to ensuring this team’s place in the peloton for perhaps another year or two—perhaps easing some pressure come July.
Overall, Nocentini’s a good representative of the type of rider most likely to find success for this team: cunning, punchy, and aggressive when necessary. This is a team that does best when it takes advantage of opportunities presented by others teams trying to dictate the outcome of a race. Case in point: Cyril Dessel. Dessel’s not the type of rider to initiate a race-winning breakaway; but he is just strong enough to hang on for dear life, and perhaps accelerate away for the win at the moment you least expect it. Did you know that Tadej Valjavec has had two top-10 overall finishes in Grand Tours since 2008?
Man of the Hour: Tough to say there is one as any number of Ag2r’s riders could lead the team in wins this season. Of them all, Nocentini seems the most primed for success—at least at this point in time. He could pull some wins in minor stage races, and when in form is an outside contender for a race like Fleche Wallone.
On the Hot Seat: Everyone is on the hot seat. Like many French teams, no roster spot is safe on a team in need of a few quality wins each year to guarantee the renewals of it sponsorship agreements. In particular, Vladimir Efemkin hopes to return to his form from 2008, a year when he finished 11th in the Tour. He needs a solid 2010 to prove the result wasn’t a flash in the pan.
Up-and-Comer: Nicholas Roche turned heads in last year’s Tour with several high finishes. He’s a talented rider with all-round abilities. Ag2r’s hoping 2010 will be the year he gets his first big win. He and Garmin’s Daniel Martin are the future of Irish cycling.
Best Pick-up: You have to love someone with the last name “Champion”. Dimitri Champion scored the sweetest kind of revenge when he won the French National Road Race Championship for the low-budget Bretagne-Armor Lux team the year after getting dropped by BBox. He also won the 1.1 Tour Finistére and last year’s Etape du Tour, which finished atop Mont Ventoux. He’s been seen often at the front of races so far this season—here’s hoping he has what it takes to score a few wins while wearing his national colors.
Biggest Loss: See BBox.
Fotoreporter Sirotti
What a start for Marc Madiot’s men in white and blue! If they continue this streak, I’ll soon be looking pretty foolish for ranking them so low.
Or will I? Yes, they’ve won a few races so far this season, and yes, they have some talent (including a rider who finished 10th in last year’s Tour de France). But come June, will wins in the Med Tour and Haut Var still look all that impressive? Don’t get me wrong though, there are some terrific pieces here, including many riders capable of taking wins. But which wins and how many is another story.
FDJ hasn’t had a bona fide star since Baden Cooke. Sure, Sandy Casar’s a terrific rider on his day, an opportunist known for his dramatic Tour stage wins. And yes, Frederic Guesdon won Paris-Roubaix—in 1997. Anthony Geslin won a semi-classic in 2009 and Yauheni Hutarovich has already won several races this season—but something still seems missing.
Fotoreporter Sirotti
Man of the Hour: Christophe Le Mevel stunned many with his top-10 finish in last year’s Tour de France. He’s started-off 2010 on the right foot, winning the second stage and the overall title at this past weekend’s difficult Tour du Haut Var. If he keeps his form, together with Casar and Remi DiGregorio, FDJ might have some hope for success in their first major domestic engagement of 2010: Paris-Nice.
On the Hot Seat: And speaking of Remi DiGregorio, when will we see him capitalize on all the potential everyone thought they saw him indicate in the Dauphiné a few years ago? He’s still just 24, but the home fans—and pundits—are growing impatient. Hopefully he’ll continue to display the aggressive riding he showed in the Med.
Up-and-Comer: It’s not all gloom and doom for France though. 2009 was a banner year for French U23 riders, culminating in Roman Sicard’s World Championship win in Mendrisio. Lost in all the excitement over Sicard was young Thibaut Pinot, the winner of the difficult Val d’Aosta stage race in Italy. In Pinot, Marc Madiot might have made his best signing in years—if this young climber comes close to meeting the expectations of those who have seen him ride.
Best Pick-up: Considering there are only 3 newcomers to the roster, signing Pinot has to be the best of this year’s off-season haul for FDJ.
Biggest Departure: Again, not many teams are lining-up to steal riders away from French teams right now—at least not at this level.
Fotoreporter Sirotti
Vacansoleil is the epitome of a team trying to do more with less. Look at its stars from 2009: Borzic, Hoogerland, and Westra are hardly household names, yet they accounted for more wins than several teams with bigger budgets and more recognizable rosters. In addition to these three, 2010 sees the arrival of France’s favorite brothers: the Feillu’s. Young Brice endeared himself to many French fans following his fantastic win at Arcalis during the 2009 Tour, while Romain—more of an all-rounder—is a threat in both sprints and from breakaways. Together, they add depth to a squad hoping to steal Skil-Shimano’s wild card invitation to this year’s Tour.
The meat and potatoes of Vacansoleil’s roster come in the form sprinter Borut Borzic and all-rounder Johnny Hoogerland. Borzic won a Grand Tour stage in last year’s Vuelta, while Hoogerland finished 12th overall before taking 5th in the Tour of Lombardy. Of the two, Hoogerland has the higher ceiling, as Borzic doesn’t seem to fare as well when facing the best of the best. Beyond these two and the Feillu’s, there’s a solid backbone of strong men able to ride in support of their leaders while making the most of their own chances when opportunities arise. Of these, Bjorn Leukemans remains an outside bet for a one-day win in one of the Belgian semi-classics. (I promise this will be the last year I say that.)
Man of the Hour: Johnny Hoogerland’s stock is high following a successful final stretch in 2009. His rides in the Vuelta and the fall classics put him on the radar as a talent to watch in 2010. Now the pressure’s on to see if he can raise the bar a little bit higher, perhaps taking a big win or two. Not to be forgotten is Hoogerland’s penchant for cobbles—he finished well in several Belgian races last spring. Look for him in Saturday’s Omloop.
On the Hot Seat: Assuming the ASO grants Vacansoleil an invitation to the 2010, whichever 9 men make the roster will be under the gun to produce at least one stage win. ASO is a fickle organization, one not too keen on giving hand-outs to non-French squads that don’t animate the race. Should Vacansoleil’s boys not score on the big stage come July, in 2011 they might find themselves on the outside looking in.
Up-and-Comer: Brice Feillu won the hearts of French housewives everywhere (we really need a new metaphor) when he won Stage 7 in the 2009 Tour. Now he needs to prove he’s more than just a flash in the pan. This year, I’d like to see him try for a high overall placing in Paris rather than searching for stage glory. It’s a tough choice, as his team will likely be desperate for success; but in terms of this rider’s development, a year following wheels in the mountains could reveal much more about his true potential.
Best Addition: For obvious reasons, the Feillu brothers.
Biggest Loss: Some might consider Baden Cooke’s departure a big deal, but let’s be honest, Borzic’s success made him expendable. Cooke’s much better off as the latest subject of one of Bjarne Riis’ career resurrection projects.
Fotoreporter Sirotti
With perhaps one or two exceptions, this team’s going to live and die on the back of Samuel Sanchez in 2010. A force to be reckoned with in just about any hillier race, Sanchez is more known for the races he’s just missed winning (too many to list) than those in which he’s actually taken a victory (the Olympics). Big wins just don’t seem to come easily for the daredevil Spaniard.
Looking over the rest of Euskaltel’s roster, Sanchez can take heart in knowing he’ll have no competition for the leadership of his team. Look for him to begin making his mark possibly as soon as Paris-Nice, but certainly no later than the Vuelta Pais Vasco in April. From there, the Ardennes Classics will be next on the agenda before a possible ride in the Tour. All in all, if Sanchez doesn’t start winning some monuments soon, he could be Spain’s version of Michael Boogerd—an extremely talented rider known more for being a bridesmaid than a bride.
Man of the Hour: Without a doubt, Samuel Sanchez.
On the Hot Seat: Sanchez—there’s no one else to share the load.
Up-and-Comer: Romain Sicard won the World U23 Road Race title for France, and then promptly signed with a Spanish team. Remember though, he’s Basque, and riding for Euskaltel is like a kid from North Jersey playing for the New York Yankees. Sicard’s an exciting talent, and Euskaltel’s quickly thrown him in at the deep end, obviously trying to get him top-level experience as quickly as possible. I can’t wait to see what he can do!
Best Pick-up: Sicard.
Biggest Loss: Euskaltel’s biggest loss in 2010 actually occurred in 2009 when Mikel Astarloza tested positive following his Tour stage win. Astarloza’s departure will be missed as he was a strong rider—but the damage to Euskaltel’s reputation could prove much more detrimental to an already fragile team.
And that’s it for Part 1 of Pavé’s 2010 Season Preview. Come back tomorrow for teams 15 through 11 in our Pre-Season Top-20.
As always, share your comments and thoughts below—have we already omitted your favorite?
Thursday, July 2, 2009
Tour de France Preview - Les Équipes du Tour - Part Quatre
Here's the fourth and final installment in Pavé's "Les Équipes du Tour" Preview. If you missed them, you can read Part Une here, Part Deux here, and Part Trois here.
Keep coming back for more coverage, predictions, and reactions to events as they unfold at le Grand Boucle. We promise daily coverage of all that happens.
Tomorrow, we'll be making 5 Indefensible Claims about this year's race--be sure to check it out!
Now back to the Preview:
Saxo Bank
It would be a serious mistake not to consider Andy Schleck a top favorite for this year’s Tour de France. Thanks to Carlos Sastre’s departure and his brother Frank's injury in the Amstel Gold Race, Andy should go into this year’s Tour with the full team at his disposal. Whether he will or not remains a big question as the Tour begins.
Saxo takes the start in Monaco with one of the most well-rounded teams in the race. Lacking only a field sprinter, the team is built for controlling things for whomever it deems its GC leader. Fabian Cancellara, Jens Voigt, Stuart O’Grady, and Kurt-Asle Arvesen are rouleurs who will help Saxo finish near the top of TTT and control things on flatter roads. And speaking of Spartacus, he’s showed tremendous form as of late, winning the Tour de Suisse and the Swiss National Championship--in the road race. Clearly anything but yellow in the Prologue will be a disappointment for Cancellara, and the team will quickly need to decide how long it wishes to defend his maillot jaune. The other three will also have their chances for breakaway stage wins once the GC scene gets a bit more settled; they’ve all had Tour stage success in the past.
The best thing about Saxo’s rouleurs is their ability to set the pace in the mountains. It's not strange to see riders like Cancellara and Voigt riding men off the back of the GC group when things get steep. And if they can’t, Saxo has talent like Gustav Larsson, Chris Anker Sørensen and Nicki Sørensen to help in the mountains. Anker Sørensen’s riding his first Tour, and is a rider to watch for the future.
The wild card is Frank Schleck. His status needs to be assessed quickly so as not to compromise the team’s chances for GC success. If he’s injured, he should be used as a decoy early, attacking when he can to tire the legs of other teams. If healthy and his brother can play off one another in the Alps to try and crack the competition (and hopefully not each other).
All in all, it should be another banner year for Bjarne Rijs and his team. With a talented roster, stage wins should be plentiful. But for the GC it will all come down to the two men with the same last name—and no, we don’t mean the Sørensen’s.
Silence-Lotto
Cadel Evans comes to the Tour a bit more relaxed this year as at least some of the weight of being "Top Favorite" has passed from him to other riders. For Evans, a rider with a penchant for cracking under pressure, this is a very good thing. At least in the early stages, Cadel and his team should ride free of the burden of controlling race, content to sit back and let others set the pace when things matter most. Evans is not as talented as Contador, Armstrong, and maybe even Andy Schleck; he’ll need to be consistent and look to capitalize on his competitors' bad moments--if they have them. That said, he can win this race. Some good TT’s and a well-timed attack or two could put him in yellow. Then the pressure's on to keep it.
More importantly, this year Evans seems to have a team behind him more committed than ever to getting him to Paris on the top step of the podium. Gone are the days of splitting the team between Evans’ GC hopes and Robbie McEwen’s stage and Green Jersey aspirations. Yes, Greg Van Avermaet is there, but he’s a rouleur able to help the team when asked, while still mixing it up for a stage here and there (but not enough to warrant a full complement of riders to form a lead-out train).
Thomas Dekker was planning to take the line hoping to prove the glimpses of talent he’s showed in the past weren’t anomalies. He could have been Evans’ greatest ally when the race hit the mountains. Alas, he’s been left-off the squad (and now fired) following a 2007 positive test for a form of EPO. He’s been replaced by Charly Wegelius, an adequate and less temperamental substitute. Wegelius and Matthew Lloyd will be two of Evans' most important assistants in the mountains. And let’s not forget Belgian Super Domestiques Johan Vansummeren and Jurgen Van den Broeck, two riders capable of setting searing paces on the flats and ascents respectively.
In the end though, it will all come down to Evans. If he can exploit the other teams’ weaknesses, particularly the potential rivalries within some of those teams (Astana in particular), he can certainly take home his first win. And if he does, he will have accomplished it when all the greatest riders of his generation were present. That’s quite an achievement.
Skil-Shimano
In many ways, Skil-Shimano is like a French team. The Dutch Wild Card team comes to its first Tour with a diverse roster of men hoping to gain exposure and stage wins. Frenchmen Jonathan Hivert and Cyril Lemoine will try for victory on their home turf, while Fumiyuki Beppu seeks to become the first rider from Japan to win a Tour stage. That said, the team's biggest chance for success comes from Kenny Van Hummel. Van Hummel won the Four Days of Dunkirk this year and finished 2nd in last week’s Dutch Championship. It won’t be a surprise if he leaves France with a stage or two and possibly a fat new contract to ride for a Pro Tour team in 2010.
BBox Bouygues Telecom
We would have previewed BBox’s Tour team on Monday, but its roster wasn’t finalized at the time. Like many of its compatriots, BBox comes to the Tour seeking stage glory. Thomas Voeckler still remembers the year he took yellow in the first week and fought savagely to keep the jersey longer than anyone expected. He’s always capable of a similar exploit.
Pierrick Fedrigo won this year’s Dauphiné stage into Briançon. He’s a rider capable of winning from a mountain breakaway, and could be one to watch on Ventoux if a break is given some latitude by the rest of the GC contenders. Laurent Lefèvre and Yuri Trofimov are riders with similar tendencies, while the youthful Pierre Roland has been tipped as the next French climbing sensation. Finally, it should be noted that BBox is one of 2 teams with a Japanese rider as Yukiya Arashiro joins Skil-Shimano’s Fumiyuki Beppu in his attempt to become the first Tour stage winner from Japan.
Caisse d’Epargne
Like BBox, Caisse d’Epargne’s roster wasn’t finished when we went to post, so we’re covering them now.
Caisse d’Epargne comes to the Tour for the first time in recent memory without Alejandro Valverde. That’s not necessarily a bad thing. Not to be harsh, but Valverde has failed to show an ability to succeed in the pressure-cooker of the Tour. He’s much more suited to the hillier classics, shorter stage races, and the Vuelta.
Without him, Caisse d’Epargne will rely on Luis León Sanchez for its GC aspirations; the team might be very pleasantly surprised. León Sanchez has been winning major races for a while now and has only been prevented from full-blown stardom by having to ride for Valverde. Now he has the team fully at his own disposal and could make them forget about Valverde’s absence. He can climb, he can time trial, and he possesses a killer instinct that could see him put a bit of fear in the eyes of the bigger favorites. A Top-10 is a distinct possibility; a Top-5 woul be a surprise to some, but not for us.
León Sanchez has a talented roster of riders behind him including David Arroyo and Ivan Gutiérrez. More importantly, he has the experienced Oscar Pereiro to guide him through the tricky business of leading a team in the biggest race in the world. Overall, it could be a pleasantly surprising July for Caisse d’Epargne—unless your initials are “AV”.
That's it for the first annual Pavé Team-by-Team preview of this year's Tour contenders.
Who did we miss? Where did we over- or under-hype?
Share your comments with the rest of us--and come back tomorrow for more!
Keep coming back for more coverage, predictions, and reactions to events as they unfold at le Grand Boucle. We promise daily coverage of all that happens.
Tomorrow, we'll be making 5 Indefensible Claims about this year's race--be sure to check it out!
Now back to the Preview:
It would be a serious mistake not to consider Andy Schleck a top favorite for this year’s Tour de France. Thanks to Carlos Sastre’s departure and his brother Frank's injury in the Amstel Gold Race, Andy should go into this year’s Tour with the full team at his disposal. Whether he will or not remains a big question as the Tour begins.
Saxo takes the start in Monaco with one of the most well-rounded teams in the race. Lacking only a field sprinter, the team is built for controlling things for whomever it deems its GC leader. Fabian Cancellara, Jens Voigt, Stuart O’Grady, and Kurt-Asle Arvesen are rouleurs who will help Saxo finish near the top of TTT and control things on flatter roads. And speaking of Spartacus, he’s showed tremendous form as of late, winning the Tour de Suisse and the Swiss National Championship--in the road race. Clearly anything but yellow in the Prologue will be a disappointment for Cancellara, and the team will quickly need to decide how long it wishes to defend his maillot jaune. The other three will also have their chances for breakaway stage wins once the GC scene gets a bit more settled; they’ve all had Tour stage success in the past.
The best thing about Saxo’s rouleurs is their ability to set the pace in the mountains. It's not strange to see riders like Cancellara and Voigt riding men off the back of the GC group when things get steep. And if they can’t, Saxo has talent like Gustav Larsson, Chris Anker Sørensen and Nicki Sørensen to help in the mountains. Anker Sørensen’s riding his first Tour, and is a rider to watch for the future.
The wild card is Frank Schleck. His status needs to be assessed quickly so as not to compromise the team’s chances for GC success. If he’s injured, he should be used as a decoy early, attacking when he can to tire the legs of other teams. If healthy and his brother can play off one another in the Alps to try and crack the competition (and hopefully not each other).
All in all, it should be another banner year for Bjarne Rijs and his team. With a talented roster, stage wins should be plentiful. But for the GC it will all come down to the two men with the same last name—and no, we don’t mean the Sørensen’s.
Cadel Evans comes to the Tour a bit more relaxed this year as at least some of the weight of being "Top Favorite" has passed from him to other riders. For Evans, a rider with a penchant for cracking under pressure, this is a very good thing. At least in the early stages, Cadel and his team should ride free of the burden of controlling race, content to sit back and let others set the pace when things matter most. Evans is not as talented as Contador, Armstrong, and maybe even Andy Schleck; he’ll need to be consistent and look to capitalize on his competitors' bad moments--if they have them. That said, he can win this race. Some good TT’s and a well-timed attack or two could put him in yellow. Then the pressure's on to keep it.
More importantly, this year Evans seems to have a team behind him more committed than ever to getting him to Paris on the top step of the podium. Gone are the days of splitting the team between Evans’ GC hopes and Robbie McEwen’s stage and Green Jersey aspirations. Yes, Greg Van Avermaet is there, but he’s a rouleur able to help the team when asked, while still mixing it up for a stage here and there (but not enough to warrant a full complement of riders to form a lead-out train).
Thomas Dekker was planning to take the line hoping to prove the glimpses of talent he’s showed in the past weren’t anomalies. He could have been Evans’ greatest ally when the race hit the mountains. Alas, he’s been left-off the squad (and now fired) following a 2007 positive test for a form of EPO. He’s been replaced by Charly Wegelius, an adequate and less temperamental substitute. Wegelius and Matthew Lloyd will be two of Evans' most important assistants in the mountains. And let’s not forget Belgian Super Domestiques Johan Vansummeren and Jurgen Van den Broeck, two riders capable of setting searing paces on the flats and ascents respectively.
In the end though, it will all come down to Evans. If he can exploit the other teams’ weaknesses, particularly the potential rivalries within some of those teams (Astana in particular), he can certainly take home his first win. And if he does, he will have accomplished it when all the greatest riders of his generation were present. That’s quite an achievement.
In many ways, Skil-Shimano is like a French team. The Dutch Wild Card team comes to its first Tour with a diverse roster of men hoping to gain exposure and stage wins. Frenchmen Jonathan Hivert and Cyril Lemoine will try for victory on their home turf, while Fumiyuki Beppu seeks to become the first rider from Japan to win a Tour stage. That said, the team's biggest chance for success comes from Kenny Van Hummel. Van Hummel won the Four Days of Dunkirk this year and finished 2nd in last week’s Dutch Championship. It won’t be a surprise if he leaves France with a stage or two and possibly a fat new contract to ride for a Pro Tour team in 2010.
We would have previewed BBox’s Tour team on Monday, but its roster wasn’t finalized at the time. Like many of its compatriots, BBox comes to the Tour seeking stage glory. Thomas Voeckler still remembers the year he took yellow in the first week and fought savagely to keep the jersey longer than anyone expected. He’s always capable of a similar exploit.
Pierrick Fedrigo won this year’s Dauphiné stage into Briançon. He’s a rider capable of winning from a mountain breakaway, and could be one to watch on Ventoux if a break is given some latitude by the rest of the GC contenders. Laurent Lefèvre and Yuri Trofimov are riders with similar tendencies, while the youthful Pierre Roland has been tipped as the next French climbing sensation. Finally, it should be noted that BBox is one of 2 teams with a Japanese rider as Yukiya Arashiro joins Skil-Shimano’s Fumiyuki Beppu in his attempt to become the first Tour stage winner from Japan.
Like BBox, Caisse d’Epargne’s roster wasn’t finished when we went to post, so we’re covering them now.
Caisse d’Epargne comes to the Tour for the first time in recent memory without Alejandro Valverde. That’s not necessarily a bad thing. Not to be harsh, but Valverde has failed to show an ability to succeed in the pressure-cooker of the Tour. He’s much more suited to the hillier classics, shorter stage races, and the Vuelta.
Without him, Caisse d’Epargne will rely on Luis León Sanchez for its GC aspirations; the team might be very pleasantly surprised. León Sanchez has been winning major races for a while now and has only been prevented from full-blown stardom by having to ride for Valverde. Now he has the team fully at his own disposal and could make them forget about Valverde’s absence. He can climb, he can time trial, and he possesses a killer instinct that could see him put a bit of fear in the eyes of the bigger favorites. A Top-10 is a distinct possibility; a Top-5 woul be a surprise to some, but not for us.
León Sanchez has a talented roster of riders behind him including David Arroyo and Ivan Gutiérrez. More importantly, he has the experienced Oscar Pereiro to guide him through the tricky business of leading a team in the biggest race in the world. Overall, it could be a pleasantly surprising July for Caisse d’Epargne—unless your initials are “AV”.
That's it for the first annual Pavé Team-by-Team preview of this year's Tour contenders.
Who did we miss? Where did we over- or under-hype?
Share your comments with the rest of us--and come back tomorrow for more!
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