Monday Musette - Beloki, Blogs, Kites, and Kits

Following the long weekend, there's a veritable cornucopia of things to enjoy! Let's jump right in:

1. Here's a great piece on the now legendary Armstrong-Across-Field/Beloki-Across-Asphalt moment from the 2003 Tour from the Freeman Transport blog. Selman's last point is spot-on: rest assured that Armstrong already knows the profiles of the key stages as well as he knows the lyrics to the new Heartless Bastards album. (Thanks to JD for pointing this one out to us.)

2. And speaking of Jeremy Dunn, did you catch his piece over at Bicycling's Sitting In? Go have a read; Jeremy's always got something good to say. After a trip to a local cross race yesterday, I'm thinking I might just have to get me a place on that bandwagon before the wheels fall off.

3. If you have nothing to do on December 20 and happen to find yourself in Philadelphia, you might want to consider coming to the 4th Annual Bilenky Cycle Works Urban Junk Yard Cyclocross race. Here are some pics from last year.

4. Some interesting bits from Cyclingnews today. First, Alejandro Valverde has officially announced that he's focusing on the Tour de France in 2010. Seriously? Yes, AJ, you won the Vuelta--finally. But the Tour's another ball of jamon. Don't waste your energy on a race you won't win; instead, set your sights on victory in just about any other race you enter (as long it doesn't have cobbles).

Confirmation also came that this year's Belgian TDF wunderkind, Jurgen Van den Broeck, has re-upped for another 2 years with Silence/Omega Pharma-Lotto. What do you think? Is VDB2 the real deal? Or will Lotto spend the next 2 years wishing they never let Cadel Evans leave?

And then there's the Giro's attempt to bring the start of the 2012 race to Washington D.C.--not sure what I think about that one. Long transfers are one thing, but a 6-hour time difference? That said, Robin Morton's g4 Productions group is leading the charge; if anyone could pull-off such an ambitious venture, it would be Robin. What about you? What obstacles do you see? What kind of effect do you think it would have?

4. Moving to the blogosphere, Red Kite Prayer's in-form right now. Several posts over the past week illustrate the talents of Padraig and his crew. Furthermore, they're adding a kit and a Twitter feed to the mix. One will cost you a little, while the other is free; but both are worth your time.
5. And finally, I can't mention kit without making another plug of my own. The design's complete, pricing is set, and the order form is here. The only thing missing is you!

Have a great week--and keep those comments coming!

Monday Musette - Lombardy, VDB, Le Tour 2010

1. Remember back in April how desperate Silence-Lotto seemed? Those days are long gone, following the team's impressive run from the Vuelta through Lombardy. Saturday’s race seem nothing more than a formality, once Cadel decided to ride for his Belgian colleague; the efforts of all challengers were effectively rendered moot. As I said earlier, Gilbert now has to be considered the early favorite for success in several of next year’s Spring Classics. The question now: which ones?

If I were Marc Sergeant, I’d look for Gilbert to be at 75-80% for Het Volk, then spend the next month or so honing his form with rides in Tirreno and the usual build-up races. Flanders should--and most likely will--be the goal; his team’s eager to break the Quick Step stronghold in the Flemish classics (but Milan-San Remo can’t be ruled-out should he find himself with an opportunity to take it). A trip to Roubaix seems unlikely—look for Leif Hoste to get one more chance here (especially if he rides well for Gilbert the week before). Instead of Roubaix, Gilbert gets a mini-rest in anticipation of a return for Amstel and the Ardennes, races equally suited to his talents. If he's reunited with an in-form Cadel Evans fresh from the Tour of the Basque Country, look for more wins in a fashion similar to Saturday's--perhaps with the roles reversed.

2. Sticking with the Classics: I’m not sure about you, but the news of Frank Vandenbroucke’s death hit me harder than I was expecting. I’m not sure why the pathetic death of someone so troubled had such an impact, but the news stopped me—literally—dead in my tracks. The image of VDB climbing the snowy Col de la Republique in Stage of 5 of the 1998 Paris-Nice is forever etched in my memory as the most perfect visual expression of all I love about cycling. Living in Belgium at the time, I was able to bear witness as his exploits unfolded live. Like Jan Ullrich in 1997, once sensed the beginning of a new era; the sky seemed the limit for young VDB. But suddenly, as shocking as Oscar Freire’s upset victory in the 1999 World Championships, the winning stopped and the drama began. A quick perusal of his Wikipedia entry tells the tale. Headings such as “Family Problems”, “Drug Problems”, “Impersonation”, “Suicide Attempt”, and “Death” dwarf the story his "Career" by comparison, unfortunately echoing what most think of when they hear his name today.

The Service Course, Red Kite Prayer, and Sam Abt have all contributed articulate responses on VDB’s passing. I’m sure you can find more. What remains to be seen is VDB's legacy. Like Mike Tyson, is VDB doomed to live in our memories as a caricature of himself and his own fragile ego? Or will time heal his reputation's self-inflicted wounds--a reputation that was (for many) damaged way beyond repair?

3. Speaking of Red Kite Prayer, Padraig’s provided a terrific overview of the 2010 route. It looks to be a stunner! And yes, we haven’t overlooked the fact that 13km of pavé are included. It’s a bold, but not unheard of move for the organization. They really seem to be pulling out all the stops to create a more exciting Tour than this year’s. Case in point: no TTT. As Competitive Cyclist rightfully points-out, no TTT works against The Shack, seeming giving Contador—and whatever he team he rides for—a bit of a of cushion before the race has even started. Otherwise, book those tickets now for Stage 3!

That's it for this Monday. Share your thoughts and comments below!

Tour de France - Stage 16 Wrap-up

What an exciting finish to today’s stage! Congratulations to Mikel Astarloza for winning Euskaltel it’s first stage since Iban Mayo won on Alpe D’Huez in 2003.

Big loser today: Cadel Evans. Does anyone else think Silence should start riding for Jurgen Van Den Broeck? The former World Junior Time Trial Champion has finished 7th in the Giro and currently sits in 22nd overall, 11:11 behind the yellow jersey. However, the more significant gap is the less 4 minutes he sits behind Cadel Evans. Is it fair to expect Silence to completely abandon Evans’ hopes in exchange for his teammate’s chances?

Probably not, but the 26 year-old’s moving in the more favorable direction right now, and he’s certainly ridden a more aggressive race up to this point (albeit in support of Cadel). Could Silence pander to its Belgian sponsor and fan base by positioning Van Den Broeck for a stage win or higher GC position at the expense of Evans? At the very least, expect to see Van Den Broeck's leash loosened even more over the next few days, especially tomorrow and Saturday. At some point it will be time for Silence to see if the kid’s for real.

For tomorrow, expect more from Saxo Bank as it tries to create one last shake-up before Thursday’s time trial. Garmin would do well to try and gain some time as well, hopefully setting-up Wiggins for further gains around Lake Annecy.

In closing, our thoughts are with Jens Voigt. His crash coming-off the Petit-Saint-Bernard is perhaps the scariest I’ve seen since Joseba Beloki. At the end of the coverage today, it was said that there’s no threat of serious injury, but it’s safe to say he faces some tough days ahead.

What about you? Any thoughts on today's action?

Share your comments below.

Tour de France Preview - Les Équipes du Tour - Part Quatre

Here's the fourth and final installment in Pavé's "Les Équipes du Tour" Preview. If you missed them, you can read Part Une here, Part Deux here, and Part Trois here.

Keep coming back for more coverage, predictions, and reactions to events as they unfold at le Grand Boucle. We promise daily coverage of all that happens.

Tomorrow, we'll be making 5 Indefensible Claims about this year's race--be sure to check it out!

Now back to the Preview:

Saxo Bank
It would be a serious mistake not to consider Andy Schleck a top favorite for this year’s Tour de France. Thanks to Carlos Sastre’s departure and his brother Frank's injury in the Amstel Gold Race, Andy should go into this year’s Tour with the full team at his disposal. Whether he will or not remains a big question as the Tour begins.

Saxo takes the start in Monaco with one of the most well-rounded teams in the race. Lacking only a field sprinter, the team is built for controlling things for whomever it deems its GC leader. Fabian Cancellara, Jens Voigt, Stuart O’Grady, and Kurt-Asle Arvesen are rouleurs who will help Saxo finish near the top of TTT and control things on flatter roads. And speaking of Spartacus, he’s showed tremendous form as of late, winning the Tour de Suisse and the Swiss National Championship--in the road race. Clearly anything but yellow in the Prologue will be a disappointment for Cancellara, and the team will quickly need to decide how long it wishes to defend his maillot jaune. The other three will also have their chances for breakaway stage wins once the GC scene gets a bit more settled; they’ve all had Tour stage success in the past.

The best thing about Saxo’s rouleurs is their ability to set the pace in the mountains. It's not strange to see riders like Cancellara and Voigt riding men off the back of the GC group when things get steep. And if they can’t, Saxo has talent like Gustav Larsson, Chris Anker Sørensen and Nicki Sørensen to help in the mountains. Anker Sørensen’s riding his first Tour, and is a rider to watch for the future.

The wild card is Frank Schleck. His status needs to be assessed quickly so as not to compromise the team’s chances for GC success. If he’s injured, he should be used as a decoy early, attacking when he can to tire the legs of other teams. If healthy and his brother can play off one another in the Alps to try and crack the competition (and hopefully not each other).

All in all, it should be another banner year for Bjarne Rijs and his team. With a talented roster, stage wins should be plentiful. But for the GC it will all come down to the two men with the same last name—and no, we don’t mean the Sørensen’s.

Silence-Lotto
Cadel Evans comes to the Tour a bit more relaxed this year as at least some of the weight of being "Top Favorite" has passed from him to other riders. For Evans, a rider with a penchant for cracking under pressure, this is a very good thing. At least in the early stages, Cadel and his team should ride free of the burden of controlling race, content to sit back and let others set the pace when things matter most. Evans is not as talented as Contador, Armstrong, and maybe even Andy Schleck; he’ll need to be consistent and look to capitalize on his competitors' bad moments--if they have them. That said, he can win this race. Some good TT’s and a well-timed attack or two could put him in yellow. Then the pressure's on to keep it.

More importantly, this year Evans seems to have a team behind him more committed than ever to getting him to Paris on the top step of the podium. Gone are the days of splitting the team between Evans’ GC hopes and Robbie McEwen’s stage and Green Jersey aspirations. Yes, Greg Van Avermaet is there, but he’s a rouleur able to help the team when asked, while still mixing it up for a stage here and there (but not enough to warrant a full complement of riders to form a lead-out train).

Thomas Dekker was planning to take the line hoping to prove the glimpses of talent he’s showed in the past weren’t anomalies. He could have been Evans’ greatest ally when the race hit the mountains. Alas, he’s been left-off the squad (and now fired) following a 2007 positive test for a form of EPO. He’s been replaced by Charly Wegelius, an adequate and less temperamental substitute. Wegelius and Matthew Lloyd will be two of Evans' most important assistants in the mountains. And let’s not forget Belgian Super Domestiques Johan Vansummeren and Jurgen Van den Broeck, two riders capable of setting searing paces on the flats and ascents respectively.

In the end though, it will all come down to Evans. If he can exploit the other teams’ weaknesses, particularly the potential rivalries within some of those teams (Astana in particular), he can certainly take home his first win. And if he does, he will have accomplished it when all the greatest riders of his generation were present. That’s quite an achievement.

Skil-Shimano
In many ways, Skil-Shimano is like a French team. The Dutch Wild Card team comes to its first Tour with a diverse roster of men hoping to gain exposure and stage wins. Frenchmen Jonathan Hivert and Cyril Lemoine will try for victory on their home turf, while Fumiyuki Beppu seeks to become the first rider from Japan to win a Tour stage. That said, the team's biggest chance for success comes from Kenny Van Hummel. Van Hummel won the Four Days of Dunkirk this year and finished 2nd in last week’s Dutch Championship. It won’t be a surprise if he leaves France with a stage or two and possibly a fat new contract to ride for a Pro Tour team in 2010.

BBox Bouygues Telecom
We would have previewed BBox’s Tour team on Monday, but its roster wasn’t finalized at the time. Like many of its compatriots, BBox comes to the Tour seeking stage glory. Thomas Voeckler still remembers the year he took yellow in the first week and fought savagely to keep the jersey longer than anyone expected. He’s always capable of a similar exploit.

Pierrick Fedrigo won this year’s Dauphiné stage into Briançon. He’s a rider capable of winning from a mountain breakaway, and could be one to watch on Ventoux if a break is given some latitude by the rest of the GC contenders. Laurent Lefèvre and Yuri Trofimov are riders with similar tendencies, while the youthful Pierre Roland has been tipped as the next French climbing sensation. Finally, it should be noted that BBox is one of 2 teams with a Japanese rider as Yukiya Arashiro joins Skil-Shimano’s Fumiyuki Beppu in his attempt to become the first Tour stage winner from Japan.

Caisse d’Epargne
Like BBox, Caisse d’Epargne’s roster wasn’t finished when we went to post, so we’re covering them now.

Caisse d’Epargne comes to the Tour for the first time in recent memory without Alejandro Valverde. That’s not necessarily a bad thing. Not to be harsh, but Valverde has failed to show an ability to succeed in the pressure-cooker of the Tour. He’s much more suited to the hillier classics, shorter stage races, and the Vuelta.

Without him, Caisse d’Epargne will rely on Luis León Sanchez for its GC aspirations; the team might be very pleasantly surprised. León Sanchez has been winning major races for a while now and has only been prevented from full-blown stardom by having to ride for Valverde. Now he has the team fully at his own disposal and could make them forget about Valverde’s absence. He can climb, he can time trial, and he possesses a killer instinct that could see him put a bit of fear in the eyes of the bigger favorites. A Top-10 is a distinct possibility; a Top-5 woul be a surprise to some, but not for us.

León Sanchez has a talented roster of riders behind him including David Arroyo and Ivan Gutiérrez. More importantly, he has the experienced Oscar Pereiro to guide him through the tricky business of leading a team in the biggest race in the world. Overall, it could be a pleasantly surprising July for Caisse d’Epargne—unless your initials are “AV”.


That's it for the first annual Pavé Team-by-Team preview of this year's Tour contenders.

Who did we miss? Where did we over- or under-hype?

Share your comments with the rest of us--and come back tomorrow for more!