Weekly Cross Report and Power Ranking

Erik's report is a bit late this week--he was in Roubaix doing some advance scouting for his Worlds predictions. He's back now though, and has provided his weekly dose of commentary. For more, check-out his site, The Run-up.

With a bevy of freshly-crowned National Champions, the cyclocross world returned to a bit of normalcy this past weekend with the penultimate round of the World Cup in Roubaix. The course, which finishes on the famed Roubaix Velodrome, has become famous for its harrowing descents and horrific conditions. Sure enough, the sloppy mud and technical nature of the course led to a natural selection containing all of the big names—except Niels Albert who was clearly suffering from the broken rib he received thanks to a run in with a drunk fan at the Belgian National Championship. Zdenek Stybar was the strongest on the day; he rode clear of the rest of the top-5 with a few laps to go. As a result, he takes sole control of the World Cup and UCI Points overall rankings. Behind him, Klaas Vantornout managed to pick-up second place ahead of a self-proclaimed "not fresh enough" Sven Nys. Last year’s winner, Erwin Vervecken, ended-up 4th, a handful of seconds ahead of Bart Wellens.

The two biggest disappointments of the weekend had to be Francis Mourey and Petr Dlask who finished 21st and 22nd, respectively. As a result, both men are dropped from this week’s Power Rankings. Lars Boom also dropped-out of the Rankings when it was announced that the Dutch National Champion will not be a part of the Dutch Worlds Team due to his desire to focus on the Classics—a bit of a shame if you ask me. From an American standpoint, the biggest disappointment of the weekend came on the women's side of things when Katie Compton was forced to the sidelines due to persistent leg cramps. As a result she lost her lead in the World Cup and UCI Points overall rankings. And speaking of the Americans, Jonathan Page was the top US rider, finishing 18th. Ryan Trebon made his European debut; he finished a disappointing 39th.

Zdenk Stybar deserves top honors this week, but where does the rest of the field stand? Time to find out:

1. Zdenek Stybar (2) - With only two weeks remaining before the World Championships, Stybar seems to be making all the right moves. After a solid first half of the season, Stybar has come on hard and as a result he currently leads the World Cup and UCI Points overall rankings. With only one World Cup remaining, the pressure is squarely on the Czechs shoulders—not to mention the pressure he'll face one week later when Worlds are in his backyard.

2. Sven Nys (1) - Nys claimed he lacked the "freshness" to win after a very hectic week. (Sounds like another lame excuse for not winning.) He's out of contention for pretty much everything except the GVA Trophy. However, all will be forgotten if he picks-up a rainbow jersey in a few weeks.

3. Klaas Vantornout (4) - Vantornout continues to climb the rankings after a very strong late-December and early-January. Right now, I consider him the second-best rider in Belgium—even though he got the better of Nys this week. A trip to Worlds is nearly locked-up for Vantornout; a podium finish is not out of the question.

4. Tom Meeusen (8) - Meesuen won another round of the U23 World Cup this weekend and jumped-up the rankings this week. He's the best U23 cross rider in the World right now and has proven that he's one of the top Elite riders as well. The real issue for Meeusen: he's already being called the next Sven Nys—talk about a tough position to be in.

5. Erwin Vervecken (na) - At the beginning of the year I promised that Vervecken would surprise everyone with one last, great, performance. Honestly, I thought a repeat was in the cards on Sunday in Roubaix. Either way you look at it though, the 38-year-old made his bid for a Worlds spot. He still has some time to pick-up one last "big win," but to see him race Worlds one last time would cap-off a great farewell season for the superstar.

6. Bart Wellens (na) - Wellens has been very inconsistent since returning to racing after battling a nasty virus. The 4-time World Champion admitted he was unprepared for the Belgian National Championships, where he finished 14th. However, he bounced-back in Roubaix with a superb 5th-place. It's hard to imagine he'll be left off the Worlds team, but with his inconsistency it could be a big risk to take.

7. Gerben de Knegt (7) - de Knegt continues to ride very well and hasn't let his narrow loss to Boom last weekend effect him. He remains the top Dutch rider in the World and his country's best hope for a medal at Worlds. The 35-year-old is still on my short list of podium contenders; I think he could surprise quite a few people at Worlds.

8. Bart Aernouts (10) - Aernouts finished 7th in Roubaix and as a result, added his name to the Belgian Worlds candidate list. So far, Albert is the only rider guaranteed of a spot since he's the defending World Champion. And, if you go by my recommendations Aernouts and Pauwels (who once again failed to make the rankings) would get the last two spots (of the 7 allotted for Belgium). It's amazing to think that some of these riders may not even make the Belgian Worlds team.

9. Niels Albert (na) - Last week Albert got bounced from the rankings; this week’s 8th-place finish hasn't done much to change my mind. If Albert’s ribs heal a bit more I think he may be able to make a last minute charge for the World Cup and, perhaps, another World Title. Albert's a true wild-card at this point, but one that cannot be ignored. After all, he still leads the Superprestige series and is within striking distance of the lead in the World Cup, GVA Trophy and UCI Points.

10. Steve Chainel (na) – Chainel’s posted back-to-back top-10 finishes in the last 2 rounds of the World Cup. He had huge support from the hometown crowd in Roubaix and for a few laps it looked like he was going to surprise a number of people. It will be very interesting to see how he does this weekend; he continues to improve every week.

Dropped this week: Francis Mourey (3), Petr Dlask (5), Lars Boom (6) and Dieter Vanthourenhout (9)

With one weekend remaining before the World Championships in Tabor, all eyes will be on Hoogerheide in the Netherlands for the final round of the World Cup. Niels Albert trails Zdenk Stybar by only 16 points. Can the Czech hold on, or does the World Champion have a surprise in store? While it will be our last chance to see where everyone stands before Worlds, this weekend will mark Tim Johnson's first appearance in Europe. The former Worlds medalist and current US National Champion has taken an unorthodox approach to Worlds (by training in California) and it's time to see if it will pay-off. As previously mentioned, Katie Compton failed to start last week in Roubaix and has been forced to watch her World Cup title slip away. Can the American bounce back right before Worlds? Or is her season done for good? All in all, a lot of questions will be answered this weekend. But I'm sure a bevy of new ones will arise just in time for the World Championships.

Monday Mustte - Worlds, UCI Tidbits, Interbike, and a Ride

1. While I can't say I told you so, I wasn't surprised to see Cadel Evans finally get the big win he's so desperately craved. It was a fantastic ride by someone not often known for taking matters into his own hands. With 4 riders in the final lead group of 9, Spain has to be wondering what went wrong after setting-up Sanchez perfectly for the win. As for Italy and Belgium, they were a bit under-represented in the final selection, with Cunego and Gilbert left to fend for themselves. But at that point in te race, if you can't handle things by yourself, you probably don't deserve to win.

But let's not take anything away from Evans' performance. The question remains: wither Evans now? Should he continue to try his luck in the Grand Tours, or should he perhaps adjust his focus to hilly Classics and short stage races? If he picks the latter, there's no reason why he couldn't have the most succesful season as World Champion in recent memory.

2. Not sure if you caught it in all the Mendrisio hoopla, but did you hear about the changes to the Worlds format for 2012? Looks like they're returning to the old model of having the Juniors, Espoirs, and Elites all competing at the same event with one key addition: a trade team TTT! The final details on this are still to be determined, but it looks likely to be run the week before the elite road race with trade teams instead of national teams competing. I'd love to see the return of the 100km distance, but that appears unlikely. No matter what, it will be an exciting event--if the teams and riders take it seriously. Will the winning team get to wear rainbow skinsuits? That sound you're hearing (off in the distance) is Jonathan Vaughters licking his lips...

3. For those of you planning your vacations now, the UCI 2010 World Calendar has been released.

4. Was anyone else shocked and bit saddened to hear that Will Frischkorn has retired? Hard to believe the guy's been a europro since before he could could legally by beer in the USA. Makes me wish now more than ever that he could have won that stage in the 2008 Tour de France. All the best, Will!

5. I hate to admit it, but I'm afraid I've not been able to live as vicariously as I had hoped via the current Interbike coverage. Pedal Strike's Kaiko has provided the best so far. Check-out her Flickr photostream, and then search for "Interbike" to enjoy scores of others. Mr. Dunn will certainly be keeping us busy this week as he sifts through his memories and photos. (Hopefully there's some photos from IF and Handspun.)

6. And on a personal note, a friend and I went for a ride with Fxdwhl from lockring.not.included on Saturday. You can read Fxdwhl's report here--he writes about such things so much better than I do. All I can say is that it was one of the best rides I've done in a long time. He's a great host, a fabulous rider, and if you haven't done so yet, the purveyor of one of the finest blogs out there. Stop-by and say hello when you have a chance.

That's it for today. What's on your mind? Thoughts from Mendrisio? Interbike?

Share your comments below.

Worlds Road Race Preview

Worlds Road Race


The Start List for Sunday’s Elite Men World Championship Road Race has been finalized, so it’s time for Pavé’s Race Preview. Let’s start at the bottom and work our way up to #1, shall we?

Finland (#201)
The last rider registered is #201, Jussi Veikkanen. He’s Finland’s lone representative and offers a terrific place to begin our run-down. Clearly a dark horse candidate, several constellations would need to align for him to take the win—but stranger things have happened.

Ireland (#’s 195-193)
Ireland brings three riders: Philip Deignan, Daniel Martin, and Nicolas Roche. Like their homeland, Ireland’s team this year is small, but not to be overlooked. Deignan just won a stage of the Vuelta, Martin is one of the sport’s future stars to watch, and Roche showed in the Tour that he too has big days ahead. Watch for them to play a supporting, but aggressive role in Sunday’s race.

Sweden (#’s 181-179)
Rider #181 is Thomas Lokvist. We haven’t heard much from him since his win in L’Eroica earlier this year, but he’s certainly someone to note—especially with Kessiakoff (#179) and Ljungqvist (#180) riding with him.

Canada (#’s 178-176)
Oh, Canada! You’ve got a team with depth similar to Ireland’s. Ryder Hesjedal’s (#177) confidence has skyrocketed since his terrific two days in the Vuelta. With Svein Tuft (#178) and Michael Barry (#176) riding support, he’s just the type to pull a big surprise—especially from an mid-race breakaway.

Slovakia (#’s 172-170)
Two of Slovakia’s three entrants share a last name—Martin and Peter Velits (#’s 171 and 172). Race favorites? Perhaps not. Riders who could animate and maybe finish near the front? Absolutely. Don’t forget, Peter won the U23 title in 2007.

Kazakhstan (#’s 138-133)
Cue the Darth Vader March. Kazakhstan takes the line with both Andrey Kashechkin (#137) and Alexandre Vinokourov (#138). They say they can’t stand one another, but I wonder if that will change should one of them be in a position to take the win. Vinokourov looked better than decent in Thursday’s ITT. Should one of these men grab the Rainbow Jersey, I’m pretty certain Pat McQuaid will spontaneously combust.

Slovenia (#117-112)
Another rider looking fast Thursday was Slovenia’s Janez Brajkovic (#114). He’s a talented rider, capable of making it over the hills with the best. Vuelta stage winner Borut Borzic (#113) rides as well; should a large group hit the line he could pull-off the shock of the year.

Switzerland (#’s 111-106)
The home squad looks set to do everything in its power to set-up Fabian Cancellara (#108) for the double. While at first this might seem absurd, think about Spartacus’ Tour de Suisse win this year. Think about his road stage win in the Tour. Think about his bronze medal in the Olympic Road Race last year. When he’s on-form and motivated—which he certainly is—he’s almost unstoppable. And don’t forget Michael Albasini (#106). He’ll probably go on the offensive to take the heat-off Cancellara during the race’s early to mid stages, but if given the green light, he could play spoiler.

Denmark (#’s 105-100)
Denmark’s squad seems a bit depleted this year, with only six riders taking the start. Jakob Fulsgang (#102) is a young climber more than capable of making an even bigger name for himself here. Matti Breschel (#101)—should the race come to a small group sprint—could certainly place well.

Czech Republic (#’s 99-97)
More than anyone else, Roman Kreuziger (#98) will be checking the weather report Saturday night—and praying. It might rain, and for a rider who’s narrowly missed big wins on wet days (San Sebastian and the Vuelta), he can’t help but hope the third time will be a charm. On paper—and I know I’ve said this before—I think he’s a favorite to take the win. The question remains though whether his head has what it takes to get him where he needs to be for victory.

France (#’s 96-91)
The boys from France only get six spots this year, but they have a team that could easily get the job done. Thomas Voeckler, Pierrick Fedrigo, and Sylvain Chavanel (#’s 96, 93, and 92, respectively) are all talented one-day riders. They’ll need to attack, attack, and attack some more if they hope to win. If they can stay fresh in the first half, and let the fireworks fly in the last 50km, they could bring home France’s first rainbow jersey since Laurent Brochard in 1997.

The Netherlands (#’s 90-85)
The Dutch are another squad bumped from 9 to 6 riders, but from top to bottom they have perhaps the deepest team in the race. Koos Moerenhout (#90) plays the role of the wily veteran, a road captain capable of reading the race as it happens. Sebastien Langeveld (#91) offers pure power—he can sit on the front all day and drive the field if need be. As for the rest, Karsten Kroon, Johnny Hoogerland, Robert Gesink, and Lars Boom (#’s 85 through 88) need to just sit tight and take turns going with the attacks in the race’s latter phases. Should one of these men come-up with the goods, it would be a terrific end to a season that—on the whole—fell short of national expectations.

Great Britain (#’s 84-76)
It’s a long shot, but David Millar (#81) and Roger Hammond (#79) will be carrying the hopes for the Union Jack’s success in Mendrisio, as we begin a group of teams with which the right to start 9 riders has to be called into question. Mark Cavendish—the rider who garnered the bulk of GB’s world points—chose to stay home, leaving the squad without an undisputed leader for Sunday. But don’t count Millar and Hammond out; they’re savvy riders, both capable of getting themselves in the right place at the right time to pull-off the upset.

USA (#’s 75-68)
Like Great Britain, the USA is another team that might have to face questions as to whether or not it deserves 9 riders in the race. Tom Danielson (#70) set fire to the first half of the Vuelta, then wilted when his bowels couldn’t hold-up their end of the bargain. Tyler Farrar (#72) won a stage in that race, but it was about 2 or 3 short of what we expected. Both are looking for big rides, but one has to think their best days are past them. For me, I’m excited to see what Thomas Peterson (#75) can do. He’s young, skilled in the hills, and rides with panache. I wouldn’t be surprised to see him in the lead group come Sunday, possibly being the road race’s version of Tom Zirbel.

Norway (#’s 67-59)
A few weeks ago I would have been inclined to bash Norway for having 9 riders in the race. Looking at their starters though, I’d be eating my words. Thor Hushovd, Edvald Boassen Hagen, and Kurt Asle Arvesen (#’s 62, 60, and 59) form quite a formidable core. Boassen Hagen is the clear favorite here, but the rest could certainly take the win if things fall their way. In a large group, Hushovd will be tough to beat if the course proves easier than expected. From an early break, Arvesen could easily crash the party.

Luxembourg (#’s 58-55)
At least Andy Schleck (#58) is racing. It’s disappointing to see a team that earned 9 riders show-up with 4. Andy left the Vuelta with stomach cramps—maybe the time off was enough to get him the form he needs here. Kim Kirchen (#57) would love to end a disappointing season with the Rainbow Jersey. With only two teammates, they’ll need all the help they can get.

Belgium (#’s 54-46)
I still can’t figure-out why Stijn Devolder was left off the Belgian team. (Well, I think I do know actually.) Nevertheless, Belgium comes to the race with its best chance to win since Tom Boonen in 2005. By the way: do you know who won Worlds the last time it was held in Switzerland? Johan Museeuw. Don’t get your hopes up though, Tommeke fans; the favorite this time is Philipe Gilbert (#50). He’s been on a quite a tear lately, coming out of the Vuelta with the form of his life. If his team can avoid infighting (wouldn’t that be ironic, Stijn?), Gilbert could easily make Wallonia and the rest of Belgium proud. A strong group backs him including: Boonen (#46), Nick Nuyens (#52), and Greg Van Avermaet (#53). Of these, Nuyens might offer the biggest threat to Gilbert’s leadership, particularly if he gets himself in a break where a choice needs to be made between working and sitting-on. Boonen and Van Avermaet will be hoping for a sprint. If all goes as planned, it could be a terrific day for Belgium.

Russia (#’s 45-37)
Russia takes the line with a solid team that—if it’s smart—will be putting all of its eggs in Sergei Ivanov’s (#39) basket. Ivanov’s a wily veteran who knows how to win important events. For example, who would have thought he would win his second Amstel this year over such strong competition? He’s been relatively quiet in his build-up, but if he’s indeed in good form, he has to be considered a candidate for the title.

Germany (#’s 36-28)
On paper, Germany comes to the race with a team of sprinters including Gerald Ciolek (#28) and Andre Greipel (#30). While a bunch kick seems doubtful, a German win’s certainly not impossible. Both of these men have shown an ability to survive after other fast men have been dropped. If a group comes to the line and Greipel’s in it, look for him to easily continue the domination he started in the Vuelta. Otherwise, Germany places its hopes in Tony Martin (#33), the bronze medalist in Thursday’s ITT. Will he ride for the others, or will he be given the green light to try for himself?

Australia (#’s 27-19)
Of all the 9-man teams, Australia has clearly one of the strongest—a solid mix of hard-working domestiques, veteran leadership, and 3 riders capable of winning in a variety of ways. Simon Gerrans, Cadel Evans, and Allan Davis (#’s 22, 21, and 20) need to be taken very seriously. Gerrans has shown himself to be one of the best one-day riders in the world over the past year, taking stages in all three Grand Tours. Davis is no slouch either; he’s been winning since January! As for Cadel, well, it hasn’t been the greatest season for him. When he wants to be, he’s a powerful rider more than capable of winning on a course such as this. If he can keep his head straight—and his tires inflated—he could easily outmatch the other favorites. Look for them to hold the Cadel card up their sleeve, saving him for the final move while Gerrans plays the role of top-lieutenant and Davis sits-in for a possible sprint.

Spain (#’s 18-10)
Spain’s depth may prove to be its own worst enemy. With both Alejandro Valverde (#18) and Samuel Sanchez (#17) in the fold, there could be a case of two many cooks in the lead pot. At some point, one man might have to defer to the other—a tough decision as both have the talent and the form needed to take the win. Will Sanchez repay Valverde for his patience in Beijing? Or will he try and avenge his loss in this Vuelta by adding the Rainbow Jersey to his Olympic gold medal? Oscar Freire (#12) rides his penultimate Worlds, hoping to spend his final season in rainbows. Like the Aussies’ Davis, he’ll need a field sprint or a large group to get to the line together, but even then he might have to defer to Valverde. Aside from these three, look for Carlos Barredo (#10) to play a roll in a breakaway at some point, possibly gunning for the win should he find himself in the position. Overall though, Spain has—along with Italy and maybe Australia and Belgium—one of the strongest teams in the race. Anything less than victory would be a disappointment.

Italy (#’s 9-1)
And last but certainly not least, we have Italy. Between the two of them, Spain and Italy have won 8 out of the last 10 world road titles—with Italy taking the last 3. They bring a team to Mendrisio ready for number 4. The defending champion, Alessandro Ballan, starts with dossard #1. However, while he’s in good shape, his Lampre teammate, Damiano Cunego, is everyone’s top-favorite following his 2 Vuelta stage wins. Clearly Cunego is the man to watch—which just might play into Ballan’s favor, allowing him to sneak away for a repeat win. And don’t forget Ivan Basso and Filippo Pozatto (#’s 2 and 7), they’ve won some big races too, and could easily take the race if the opportunity arrives. The same could be said for Stefano Garzelli and Luca Paolini (#’s 5 and 7). And don’t forget Michele Scarponi (#8)—he won 2 stages in this year’s Giro as well the overall at Tirreno-Adriatico. Then there’s Giovanni Visconti (#9), who’s been winning build-up races in Italy all fall. In fact, the only rider for Italy who we might logically say doesn’t take the line with a legitimate chance to win is Marzio Bruseghin. But even he’s a rider that—

Well, you know what I mean.

So in closing, here’s our Stone Rankings for the race:

5-Stone Favorites:
Damiano Cunego
Philippe Gilbert
Alejandro Valverde
Samuel Sanchez
Edvald Boassen Hagen

4-Stone Favorites:
Fabian Cancellara
Roman Kreuziger
Cadel Evans
Alessandro Ballan

3-Stone Favorites:
Allan Davis
Andre Greipel
Thor Hushovd
Nick Nuyens
Andy Schleck
Lars Boom
Filippo Pozatto
Ivan Basso

2-Star Favorites:
Sylvain Chavanel
Robert Gesink
Janez Brajkovic
Alexandre Vinokourov
Tyler Farrar
Giovanni Visconti

And last but not least, here’s Pavé's picks for the podium (no alliteration intended):

Rainbow Jersey: Philippe Gilbert
Silver Medal: Damiano Cunego
Bronze Medal: Edvald Boassen Hagen

Enjoy the race! And as always, share your comments below.

Worlds ITT Preview

While its Start List isn’t as star-studded as Sunday’s Road Race, tomorrow’s World Championship ITT possesses no shortage of riders capable of winning the Rainbow Skinsuit. Luckily, the list itself is short, making it easy to sort the contenders from the pretenders. Let’s take a look at the 10 whom we feel have the best chances for a strong performance. We’ll rank them in their predicted order of finish, beginning with #10.

10th Place – Dominique Cornu – Belgium
Cornu won the 2006 World U23 ITT title and is always an outside threat to pull a good result in an ITT. He didn’t ride the Vuelta, but he still remains a dark horse capable of a top-ten finish.

9th Place – Ignatas Konovalovas – Lithuania
Konovalovas stunned everyone when he won the final stage of this year’s Giro. His results in the Vuelta were somewhat lackluster, but he’s certainly capable of finishing just inside the Top-10 in Mendrisio.

8th Place – Marco Pinotti – Italy
Being the 4-time reigning Italian National Time Trial Champion has to mean something, right? Pinotti will have enough of fan base in Mendrisio to warrant a good ride. Columbia-HTC could end the day with 5 riders in the Top-10—he’ll be the first (from the bottom up, that is).

7th Place – Tony Martin – Germany
Tony’s had a relatively quiet late summer and early fall following his revelatory ride in the first weeks of the Tour. He’s always been known as a time trialist though; look for him to get himself back on everyone’s radar with a strong performance tomorrow.

6th Place – Frantisek Rabon – Czech Republic
Rabon’s another of Columbia’s slew of time trialists. He rode the Vuelta, but put in what have to be considered ho-hum ITT performances at best. Still, he’s a talented man against the clock, and is certainly capable of a finish in the middle of the Top-10.

5th Place – Bradley Wiggins – Great Britain
I’m sorry, but I think the wheels are about to fall-off for the men in red, white, and blue (they did have it first, my American friends). Cavendish has already pulled-out of the road race (why was he even thinking of riding such a hilly event?), and now I think Wiggo will fall short of where most English-speakers are hoping he’ll be. Cite whatever reasons you like, but I think it will come down to whatever pressure he’s feeling as a result of the contractual tug of war being waged between Sky and Garmin. Sure, it’s usually the agents who sort these things out, but don’t you think BW’s phone has been ringing off-the-hook with people wanting to know the latest? It wears on a rider, really it does. Maybe next year, Brad. For now, you’ll have to be content with 5th.

4th Place – Lars Boom – The Netherlands
In my opinion, there’s only one rider capable of upsetting Fabian Cancellara and it’s Lars Boom. Realistically, the talented crosser (can we even say this anymore?) is probably more suited for the Top-5, but I think he’s by far the man with the deepest talent. If he wins gold, you can say you heard it here first. If he finishes 4th, well…I guess you can say you heard it here too!

Bronze Medal – Bert Grabsch – Germany
Germany gets both of its entrants in the Top-10 with last year’s champion only mustering 3rd. He’d be a favorite for a repeat if not for the two riders ahead of him.

Silver Medal – Edvald Boassen Hagen – Norway
I think Boassen Hagen’s a smart guy. I think he knows that his team is perhaps a bit over-matched for Sunday and that he might need to take his stab at a World Championship a few days earlier. I think he knows that everyone’s all but giving Cancellara the gold medal outright—a lot of pressure for any man. Sounds to me like a recipe for an upset. But if Boassen Hagen wins—given the August and September he’s had—can it really be called an upset?

Gold Medal – Fabian Cancellara – Switzerland
Um, let’s see:
1st, Prologue, Tour of California
1st, Prologue, Tour de Suisse
1st, Stage 9 (ITT), Tour de Suisse
1st, Stage 1 (ITT), Tour de France
1st Stage 1 (ITT), Vuelta a España
1st Stage 7 (ITT), Vuelta a España

Is there really any doubt? Cancellara will win his 5th Worlds gold medal. The competition is fierce—especially at the back-end of the start list—but Spartacus should claim the title that—as his results can attest—should be rightfully his.

So there you have it—tomorrow’s Top-10 a day early. Who did we leave out? Who’s your pick for the Rainbow Skinsuit?

Share your comments below.

Monday Musette - Interbike, Di2, and the Vuelta

While we won't be making the pilgrimage to Vegas this week, we are eagerly awaiting the various reports and eye-candy that make it one of the most fascinating of the year. Here are some things we recommend you check-out:

1. The good folks at IF have posted some pretty interesting photos on their blog about things to look for at this year's show. While they won't have a dedicated booth of their own, they're building bikes to be showcased by companies including Whipperman, EDGE, and Cane Creek. What caught my eye the most was this photo. I can't place the date, location, or anything for that matter, but I can tell that it looks F-U-N!

2. Our friends over at Handspun are also set to reveal some new goodies in the handbuilt, spoked-wheel department. For instance, David tells me that the Pavé-favorite Neo Classic clincher is due for an upgrade. From the looks of things, it will soon be coming with a deeper HED Belgium rim. To be honest, I'm a bit skeptical of an alloy rim with anything other than a box-section profile, but David's promised us one of the first sets to try and change my mind. Look for more to come--as well as a review of the current tubular Neo Classic.

And in other news:

3. It's become clear to me that by February we'll know if Di2 is here to stay. Competitive Cyclist noted earlier that Hincapie won the national championship on it, clearly demonstrating his confidence in the group's reliability and performance. Now Niels Albert appears to be taking things one step further. My eyes could be deceiving me, but take a look at Albert's bike from this weekend's cyclocross race in Neerpelt, Belgium. Looks to me like he's running Di2, no? If the group can survive the rigors of a European 'cross season, then at what point must we all take it seriously? Will we see winner at Roubaix next Spring aboard the electronic grouppo?

I can't help but wonder if Shimano wanted us to feel uninspired by 7900. By practically inviting us to criticize the group, they've given themselves almost the perfect cover under which to develop, tweak, and fine tune what might truly become the new industry standard. If Albert wins in the sand at Koksijde and the mud at Overijse and he does it with Di2, I just might have to consider myself convinced.

4. As for racing, Worlds is set to begin later this week. I'll be saving my official picks for later, but it looks certain to be an exciting race with just about everyone peaking at the right time.

5. The Vuelta shaped-up as planned, with Alejandro Valverde finally getting the Grand Tour win he so craved. While it's a terrific victory for Valverde, Caisse d'Epargne, and the Spanish fans, I can't help but think it will ultimately prove to damage his chances in other races. Let's face it, Valverde's never going to win the Tour. Let's hope his Vuelta win doesn't cause to him to forego his chances in other important events in exchange for glory that will never come in July.

6. And finally, is Roman Kreuziger inconsistent or what? Look at his results in the three races against the clock in Spain: 6th in the Stage 1, 63rd in Stage 7, and 5th in Stage 20. One can only wonder what he might have done on GC had he ridden to his potential in Valencia. And watch-out for Phillip Gilbert. He took 6th in the final ITT, a sign that he's in the shape if his life. Mendrisio beckons.

That's it for us today. What's on your mind? Headed to Interbike? Early picks for Worlds? Final thoughts on the Vuelta?

Share your comments below.

Monday Musette - Vuelta, Waiting for Cadel, Worlds, etc...

Here's our thoughts for Monday:

1. As we predicted, this weekend's stages at the Vuelta have separated the men from the boys--or have they? As it stands after today's Stage 15 we have 6 riders within 1:54 of one another. Of those, Valverde, Sanchez, Evans, and Basso seem the most lilely to take the overall win thanks to their superior time trialing abilities. For my money, look for Evans to unleash some serious revenge on the others for not waiting for him to have his wheel changed following a flat tire in Saturday's stage, thus costing him a minute on GC. Assuming of course that no one gains serious time on the last summit finish.

2. And speaking of Saturday, should they have waited for Cadel? Had he been in the golden jersey, yes. He wasn't though, so they can technically claim they had no obligation. That said, was there really any reason not to have waited? He flatted near the top of a climb; they could have easily coasted for a bit, allowing him to regain contact before descending to Sierra Nevada. Also, they weren't really chasing anyone and there were no contenders chasing from behind. Seems to me that Cadel's reputation for being a bit of a brat might have caught up with him. Regardless, waiting would have been the most sporting gesture. Two wrongs never make a right--unless you're talking about Danilo DiLuca.

3. Here's perhaps the most overwrought Cyclingnews line ever: "As he basks again in Vuelta glory this Sunday eve--a fortnight before the World Championships--Cunego will surely now be starting to hear the dulcet tones of Switzerland's siren worlds song."

4. Paris-Brussels was won by Matthew Goss, a rider with a serious future in the Spring Classics. Romain Feillu took the win Sunday in Fourmies. Too bad the course for Worlds isn't a bit flatter; he might have earned an invitation.

5. And speaking of Worlds, the Italian and German Worlds teams have been announced. No real surprises other than the fact that zee Germans apparently think this year's race is being held in Zolder, Belgium.

6. Did you hear (courtesy of Cycling Quotient) that Garmin will not be renewing the contracts of Mike Friedman, Jason Donald, Kilian Patour and Blake Caldwell? Hans Dekkers (Landbouwkrediet) and Chris Sutton (Sky) are also leaving, along with several riders yet to be confirmed. Just thought you'd like to know.

That's it for today. Hopefully you're enjoying the waning days of summer.

What's on your mind? The Vuleta? Worlds?

Share your comments below.

Another Look at Worlds Qualification

Thank heavens for astute (and polite) readers!

As someone commented after Wednesday’s post, I seem to have overlooked something in my discussion of the UCI's procedure for determining the number of starters for each nation in the Worlds road race. In a nutshell, the UCI World/Pro Tour ranking is only used to determine the first 10 qualifying nations for Worlds (I got that wrong by saying it was used for more than 10 nations). After the first 10 on the World ranking, the various Continental rankings (which can be quite different) are used to determine the rest of the field. In most cases, this doesn’t pose a problem in regards to the solution I proposed, but in Europe's case, it most certainly does. So let’s revisit!

As discussed earlier, these are the first 10 nations on the UCI’s World ranking:

1. Spain 1334 pts.
2. Italy 910
3. Australia 710
4. Germany 661
5. Russia 590
6. Luxembourg 563
7. Belgium 505
8. Great Britain 462
9. Norway 414
10. USA 389

All 10 of these teams qualify to start 9 riders in the Worlds road race. As for the rest of the European qualifiers, the first 16 teams on the UCI Europe Tour ranking also qualify—excluding any teams that have already qualified via the World ranking. Here though is where things get a bit vague. Perhaps it would be best to quote the UCI regulation itself:

“The first 16 nations of the classification by nation of the UCI Europe Tour on 15 August 2009 [qualify for participation in the World Championship road race] excluding the nations qualifying via the world classification: the first 6 nations qualifying can enter 9 riders, with 6 to start; the nations ranked 7th to 16th can enter 5 riders, with 3 to start.”

What’s vague is the “excluding the nations qualifying via the world classification” part. Are we to take the Top-16 from Europe and then exclude those that have already qualified; or do we first exclude those that have already qualified and then take the Top-16? I’m interpreting it as the former as opposed to the latter; thus taking the Top-16 and deleting those already qualified via the World ranking.

So here’s the first 16 teams in the UCI Europe ranking:

1. Italy*
2. France*
3. Netherlands
4. Spain*
5. Germany*
6. Belgium*
7. Slovenia
8. Poland
9. Russia*
10. Portugal
11. Ukraine
12. Denmark
13. Great Britain*
14. Estonia
15. Norway*
16. Austria

*Nations in the Top-10 in the UCI World ranking

Now we need to delete the teams that have qualified via the World ranking, thus leaving us with the following nations:

1. France
2. Netherlands
3. Slovenia
4. Poland
5. Portugal
6. Ukraine
7. Denmark
8. Estonia
9. Austria

Of these (if I’m reading it right), the Top-6 get 6 riders in the road race and the rest get 3.

The biggest loser here has to be Denmark, which now only gets 3 starters (as our reader rightfully pointed-out).

And remember too, that there are still other ways for countries qualify based upon the ranking of their individual riders--there's a list of them here.

But let’s go back to the Pavé adjusted ranking, shall we?

Under the Pavé system, these are the Top-10 nations in the World ranking:

1. Spain
2. Italy
3. Australia
4. Germany
5. Russia
6. Belgium
7. USA
8. Luxembourg
9. Norway
10. Netherlands

The list remains largely unchanged aside from the Netherlands replacing Great Britain (sorry, blokes!). Now we delete the European nations on this list from the Top-16 of the UCI European ranking and get the following:

1. France
2. Slovenia
3. Poland
4. Portugal
5. Ukraine
6. Denmark
7. Great Britain
8. Estonia
9. Austria

Like before, the Top-6 get 6 starters, the rest get 3.

So under the Pavé system, the Netherlands now brings a full team to Mendrisio by jumping into the World ranking's Top-10. Denmark jumps from 3 to 6 starters, and Great Britain loses 6 starters, dropping waaaay down the ranking.

Is my method fair? Maybe not, but I feel it’s a better system than the one being used now. An even better solution might the way points are weighted in Pro Tour races, as another reader suggested, or to just make Worlds a trade team-only event--yet another suggestion from Pavé's commentators.

No matter what, I hope you appreciate the revised attempt at setting the UCI straight. And thanks to whomever set me straight; it gave me something else to think about during these dog days of August.

Now back to your comments!

Is Worlds a Sham?

In this week's Monday Musette I mentioned my shock over the fact that traditional cycling nations such as France and the Netherlands will have their numbers reduced in this year’s World Championship road race due to the fact that both nations will—as of August 15th—be outside of the Top-10 in the UCI’s World Rankings. Now, while I have indeed calmed down a bit, I still find the selection procedure less than perfect.

You can read the entire selection criteria here. In a nutshell, Worlds participation is based upon the UCI Nations Ranking. The Nations Ranking is calculated by adding-up the points earned by each country's respective riders’ in Pro Tour races (the sum of which constitutes their World Rankings). Cut-offs are then made after 10 and 6 nations, giving each of these nations 9 and 6 riders respectively in the road race. Let’s take a look at the ranking (with points) as of August 10th (and how it will remain on August 15th):

1. Spain 1334 pts.
2. Italy 910
3. Australia 710
4. Germany 661
5. Russia 590
6. Luxembourg 563
7. Belgium 505
8. Great Britain 462
9. Norway 414
10. USA 389

These 10 nations will get 9 starters in the road race. The next 6 countries in the ranking will each get 6 (it’s a bit convoluted as to why and how, but you can read about it here):

11. Netherlands 341 pts.
12. Czech Republic 321
13. France 301
14. Switzerland 253
15. Denmark 210
16. Belarus 111

Does this look right to you? At first glance it appears that several deserving nations will have riders excluded in favor of countries with an individual or two who might have over-achieved. At least that’s how I see it.

My solution? It’s really quite simple: throw-out the points from each nation’s highest rider.

Since the ranking is being used to judge the participation of a national team, then it should be used in a way that reflect a nation’s consistency, not as a reward for having one particularly good rider.

For example, how about Luxembourg and its 563 points? Are Andy Schleck’s 334 worthy of the entire nation getting 9 riders on the start line in Switzerland? Does Luxembourg even have 9 registered pros? Without Andy, Luxembourg would have 229 points on the Nations ranking—a much more logical number to me.

But let’s not stop there; let’s apply the “Pavé Test” to the entire Top-16.

Here’s how the ranking would look if we exclude the top point-getter from each nation:

1. Spain 807
2. Italy 708
3. Australia 491
4. Germany 429
5. Russia 372
6. Belgium 318
7. USA 239
8. Luxembourg 229
9. Norway 198
10. Netherlands 196

These nations would have 9 riders in the road race. Here are the next 6, each getting 6 riders in the event:

11. France 194
12. Great Britain 158
13. Denmark 128
14. Switzerland 105
15. Belarus 50
16. Ireland 16

The Biggest Winners?
1. In both systems, Italy and Spain are clearly heads and shoulders above the competition. The consistency and depth of their riders is clear. The same can be said for Australia, Germany, and Russia, all of whom held their spots in the ranking.

2. Also, the Netherlands jumped into the Top-10 under my system. Extend the deadline to after the Eneco Benelux Tour and perhaps they move even higher.

3. Ireland has to be happy to go from 3 to 6 riders as well. They’re lucky that Colombia is ahead of them in my new ranking and is therefore included since it qualifies under the UCI America Tour ranking.

4. And Belarus. Belarus.

The Biggest Losers?
1. The Czech Republic lost 310 points from Roman Kreuziger, dropping them from 9 to 3 riders.

2. Great Britain went from 9 to 6 riders with Mark Cavendish’s 304 points being excluded.

3. And France? Well, under both systems they get only 6 riders on the line. Désolé, mes amis!

A major factor creating a problem with the UCI’s method lies in the fact that it de-emphasizes one day races in favor of Grand Tours. Eliminating each country’s top point-getter seems to fix this. For example, under the new system, Spain earned the majority of its points via Alejandro Valverde as opposed to Alberto Contador. And why shouldn’t they? Is it fair to participation in a one day event on points earned by riders in Grand Tours? Should Andreas Kloden and his 232 points be the reason Germany gets 9 riders? No. Heinrich Haussler and his 217 points should. Under my system, the right riders from the right nations get rewarded for the results in the right races. Right?

Share your thoughts below...