Weekend Preview - The Dauphiné and the Tour of Switzerland

The Criterium du Dauphiné wraps-up this weekend with two “legendary” stages in the Alps. Saturday’s the most difficult of the two, taking the riders over 3 categorized climbs—including the hors categorie Col du Glandon—before finishing atop the infamous Alpe-d’Huez. The stage should finalize the top of the general classification. If it doesn’t, Sunday offers an interesting parcours as well, ending with 5 laps in Sallanches—site of the 1980 World Championships and arguably one of the toughest courses in World Championship history. If small gaps remain following Saturday’s slug-fest, look for aggressive action Sunday.
Radio Shack’s Janez Brajkovic sits comfortably atop the GC, with a 1:41 lead over his main rival, Alberto Contador. Denis Menchov and Jurgen Vandenbroeck are riding well at the moment; they lurk dangerously close at 2:55 and 3:06 respectively. While it appears unlikely these two will unseat the men from Radio Shack and Astana, their performances deserve noting in advance of the Tour de France. Other impressive rides have been put in by Tejay Van Garderen—he sits in second-place at 1:15—and Reine Taaramae—he’s in tenth-place at 3:28.

It’s looking like Brajkovic and his team have what it takes to hold Contador at bay—tomorrow’s finale should provide some exciting fireworks as the men within shouting distance take their shots. The day will be a good test for both teams—does Astana have what it takes to win when racing from behind?

Tomorrow also sees the start of the Tour of Switzerland—the other important Tour de France preparation event. If a start list is any indicator, the Tour de Suisse is overwhelmingly the preferred pre-Tour test. Several teams are bringing the bulk of their Tour rosters; only Contador, Menchov, Vandenbroeck, Evans, Basso, Nibali, and Wiggins won’t be taking part. A day longer than the Dauphiné, the TdS seems to have a slightly easier parcours with no major summit finishes and less time trialing than the Dauphiné. That said, this is the Tour of Switzerland we’re talking about—it’s certain to be intensely competitive.

Fabian Cancellara would love to defend his title from last year—doing it while wearing the jersey of Swiss national champion would be an added bonus. Saxo’s bringing the team he needs to do it, with both Schlecks and Jens Voigt lending firepower to the challenge. The TdS will also be our last chance to gauge Lance Armstrong’s fitness prior to the Tour de France. Is he really back on track—or does he still have work to do? We’ll know by next Sunday.

We’ll also get our first opportunity to see Tom Boonen, Mark Cavendish, and Thor Hushovd battle head-to-head this season (at least I think so). Oscar Freire’s coming too—giving us a terrific preview of some of the main contenders for this July’s green jersey.

Personally, I’m eager to see how well Christian Vande Velde has recovered from his crash in the Giro, as well as the extent to which young guns Roman Kreuziger and Robert Gesink will be contenders in next month’s Grand Boucle.

And my pick for the winner? I think Tony Martin takes it with a powerful time trial on the last day. Cancellara will be close, but he’ll have one tough day in the hills, giving Martin the gap he needs to take the win.

What about you? Who are your picks for the weekend’s events? What do you hope the race will reveal in advance of this year’s Tour?

Share your comments below.

Monday Musette - Weekend Racing, Doing the Double, and Transfers

Here’s this week’s Musette—finally on the proper day too!

1. The renamed Criterium du Dauphiné kicked-off yesterday with a 6.8-kilometer Prologue in Evian-les-Bains. Alberto Contador won the event over young American Tejay Van Garderen and Radio Shack’s Janez Brajkovic. While Contador’s win was impressive, he was quick to play it down, bluntly stating he has no intention of defending the jersey.

Contador’s victory was hardly a shock, but several Prologue performances were, including David Millar and Denis Menchov losing 15 and 25 seconds respectively. While Ivan Basso illustrated at this year’s Giro that coming to a grand tour a bit under form can benefit a rider in a tough final week, it’s hard to see Menchov having such luck similar given his shaky track record in le Grand Boucle.

That said, there’s still a lot of racing left. With no true field sprinters and an aggressive parcours, we should see an exciting race for the yellow jersey as more than a few men stand a chance to wrestle it from Contador’s shoulders before the long time trial Wednesday. Stay tuned.

2. The Tour of Luxembourg finished yesterday with Vacansoleil’s Matteo Carrara taking a close win over Frank Schleck. Radio Shack’s Lance Armstrong finished third and promptly declared himself back on track for the Tour. Really Lance? You’ve missed about 10 days of racing, been sick, crashed on your face, and are currently facing the most serious doping accusations of your career. How do 5 days in Luxembourg suddenly put you back on track?

3. Speaking of on-track, HTC-Columbia’s Matthew Goss won yesterday’s TD Bank Philadelphia International Cycling Championship (the TDBPICC, for short). Interestingly, lost in the Cavendish-Greipel feud has been the quiet evolution of Goss into one of the world’s best up-and-coming field sprinters. He took a stage in the Giro last month and now hard-fought win in Philly. Goss should make it easier for HTC to let Greipel go this coming off-season; he gives HTC a second sprinter to bring wins in races Cavendish doesn’t attend. If Greipel can’t keep his mouth shut—which he won’t if he’s left home from the Tour again—look for Goss to get a Vuelta start in his place. Remember, this is an HTC-Columbia team that was rumored to have sat riders at the end of last season after they had reportedly signed deals elsewhere. Just sayin’.

4. It looks like Heinrich Haussler has put his knee troubles behind him. A good friend and I have long maintained a theory that the best homeopathic remedy—for anything—is crashing a car.  Looks like Haussler might agree.

5. I’ll admit I was a bit shocked to read about Ivan Basso’s plans to attempt the Giro/Tour Double. Do you think he can do it? The last one to accomplish the feat was an Italian—Marco Pantani in 1998—but with Kreuziger, Nibali, and Basso in the mix, I can’t help but think Liquigas might have too many cooks and not enough pots to go around.

6. And last but not least, last week showed us all that it’s never too early to start talking about next year, with rumors on several possible transfers hitting the news.

Stijn Devolder seems to be a popular choice for many teams with Radio Shack and Vacansoleil looking to be the most likely destinations for the Belgian star. I’ve been predicting a Lance-Devolder reunion at the Shack since last summer—does Vacansoleil really have a deal made or is Devolder’s agent just trying to raise Radio Shack’s offer? And if Devolder does indeed land with the Dutch team, what does that mean for Bjorn Leukemans?

Another report has surfaced claiming Alberto Contador will be joining the Spanish Caisse d’Epargne team next season with a hefty 4-year contract. (Luis Leon Sanchez has to be going crazy by now.) That’s funny considering Caisse d’Epargne has yet to announce a new title sponsor. Will he bring Specialized with him—hard to see that happening as the team’s have been riding Pinnarello’s for as long as I can remember.

And finally, Fabian Cancellara’s rumored to be heading elsewhere too, given the lack of an official announcement from Bjarne Riis. I assume this is yet another ploy; it allows Bjarne Riis to pressure his potential suitors into closing the deal, lest they risk losing Cancellara to someone else.

Which transfer do you expect to make the most headlines over the coming weeks?

Share your comments below!

Monday Musette - Roubaix Wrap-Up

All Photos by Tim Vanwichelen

Admit it, you found yesterday’s race a bit boring. Unless Cancellara happens to be your favorite rider, there was something a bit anti-climatic about the way he quickly and authoritatively disposed of his competition, motoring away from them all with a little less than 50 kilometers remaining in the race. There was no drama, no tension, and no tactics; he simply picked his moment, and rode off to victory.

1. But let’s not allow our unfulfilled expectations to prevent us from giving Spartacus his due. His ride yesterday was nothing short of astounding, the kind of dominating performance we see in a classic only once every 20 years or so. As we did after his win in Flanders, we must credit Cancellara’s team for providing him with a stress-free ride to the race’s decisive phases. Saxo Bank controlled the peloton for much of the day, at one point having 7 men spread across the front of the leading peloton. Interestingly, the man widely assumed to be Cancellara’s strongest teammate, Matti Breschel, disappeared just as things got interesting. But in the end, the day belonged to Fabian Cancellara, a truly worthy winner, and the second Swiss rider to complete the Flanders-Roubaix Double. The question now is whether or not Cancellara will take a shot at the Amstel Gold Race and Liege-Bastogne-Liege. Given what we’ve seen, I won’t discount his chances. Will you?

2. Thor Hushovd raced to a fine 2nd-place, the first of two Cervélo riders in the top-5. Thor overcame much this spring, ultimately going one better than his 3rd-place in last year’s edition. He rode a relatively quiet race, receiving some criticism for his apparent unwillingness to help Boonen chase Cancellara. While it cannot be explained why a team with two men in the group would seem so apprehensive, there’s the distinct possibility that they just had nothing to give. When you go back and watch the highlights, it’s clear that each rider was at his limit and doing everything he could just to hold the wheel directly in front of him. Congratulations as well to Thor’s teammate, Roger Hammond, for another great ride in Roubaix. Believe it or not, it’s not Hammond’s best result on the pavé though; he finished 3rd in 2004.

3. Juan Antonio Flecha put Team Sky on the podium in the team’s first foray into Hell with 3rd-place on the day. Overall, it’s the Spaniard’s third visit to the podium in Roubaix and his fifth finish inside the top-6. Sky’s pleased with the ride, but Flecha has to be wondering just what he has to do to win. His team did well to protect him into the race finale and he made no errors, tactical or otherwise. In the end, he simply succumbed to two stronger riders—nothing more, nothing less.

4. Tom Boonen was the day’s biggest loser, taking 5th in a race he was favored to win. Much can be said about Boonen’s performance—there’s a lot of blame to go around. First of all, Boonen’s Quick Step team left its leader far too isolated when the race began to intensify. Even before the Forest of Arenberg, Boonen was all but alone while his competitors—especially Cancellara—had several teammates at their sides. Heading into the final 60 kilometers with a relatively large group, Boonen’s anxiety began to show as he launched a series of unsuccessful attacks inside a span of about 10 kilometers. These were moves that should have been made by his teammates, but they were all too busy dropping-out, crashing, or chasing back to the front. Had Boonen some help in softening the front of the field, he might have had the legs to go with Cancellara’s race-winning attack moments later. Had he been paying attention, that is.

In the end, it’s easy to fault Boonen for a mistake many might have made. The road was wide, the group was tired, and a small group had just escaped to give the group some purpose. Surrounded by other favorites, it was—he thought—the ideal time to slip to the back, grab a drink, stretch his legs, and follow wheels for a bit. While Cancellara certainly wasn’t planning to attack at such a moment, once he looked back and saw Tommeke’s poor placement, he had to take his chance.
Boonen chased valiantly upon realizing the severity of the moment—he was clearly riding at a level better than his companions—but in the end it wasn’t enough to close the gap created during his moment of inattention. Overall, Boonen’s spring was one most riders would love to have had; but for a man boasting such an impressive resume, it’s a disappointment.

5. Bjorn Leukemans continued his impressive run with a 6th-place finish, two spots below his best-ever result in Roubaix. Watching Leukemans bury himself to hold Cancellara’s wheel is perhaps the best highlight of all the cobbled classics. As for his fist pound, I’m not sure Leukemans was responding to Cancellara’s speed as much as he was expressing his frustrations with a front tire that was losing air and a moto that seemed slow to accelerate. (Here’s a great link to a video of the entire sequence--feel free to form your own assumptions.) Regardless, hats-off to Leukemans—let’s see what he does in Amstel.

6. Filippo Pozzato came home in 7th-place, taking the Ballerini Prize as first Italian finisher. It was a good result for the Italian, but one that only begs the question as to what he could have accomplished had he not been hit with the flu in the week leading up to Flanders. The black kit was a nice touch, if for no other reason than it softened the effect of those god-awful Lazer helmet covers.

7. As for Leif Hoste, he can at least say he tried. His attack with Leukemans and Sebastien Hinault set-up Cancellara’s winning attack. His 8th-place finish is a solid result; but looking at the competition, it’s tough to see him ever getting the win he so craves.

Looking down the rest of the finishers from Sunday—which is easy to do considering there were only 74 of them—there are few highlights:

8. George Hincapie was literally right next to Cancellara when the Swiss rider snuck up the left side of the road. I took some heat for touting George’s chances in the days before the race; now it appears I need to read the writing on the wall. One comment yesterday compared George to Levi Leipheimer, another man known more for his misses than his hits. After another Roubaix where George seemed able to do little more than follow, it’s looking like the comparison might be appropriate. I’m sorry George, but maybe Roubaix is one nut you’ll never crack. George’s BMC teammates fared no better; none of them completed the race.

9. Other non-finishers included Peter Sagan and Lars Boom, while Stijn Devolder—after another day spent at or off the back—could manage no better than 42nd.

10. As for Garmin, we expected big things from Tyler Farrar and his colleagues—what we got was Martijn Maaskant in 22nd, the team’s only finisher.

On a day of sunshine and dry conditions, a strong headwind is the most common excuse for the attrition—that and the other-worldly exploits of a rider enjoying the best form of his career. Domination might be boring, but it never fails to impress.

Enjoy your Monday—share your thoughts below.

Paris-Roubaix - 2010 Preview (For Real This Time...)

All Photos by Tim Vanwichelen

While last year I took an early stab at predicting the favorites for this year's race, I've saved the real Preview for the last minute. The last few weeks have given us time to separate the men from the boys, hence a smaller list than usual of men capable taking the Queen of the Classics. Here we go:

5-Stone Favorites

Last spring, sickness and injury took their toll on Fabian Cancellara, possibly a result of an early season trip to the rainy and cold Tour of California. As a result, the Swiss Champion rode a rather anonymous classics campaign, abandoning the Tour of Flanders after a broken chain on the Koppenburg and spending most of Roubaix in the service of his team. But Spartacus is back this year—in a big way. After winning the E3 Prijs Vlaanderen and the Tour of Flanders—an impressive double in its own right—Cancellara now heads to Roubaix as the top favorite to become only the second non-Belgian (and coincidentally, the second Swiss rider) to add the impressive Flanders-Roubaix double to his palmares as well. Cancellara is obviously in the form of his life and he has enjoyed past success on the pavé (he won the race in 2006 and has several high finishes on his resume). Perhaps more importantly, Cancellara has the confidence from knowing he defeated his main rival, Tom Boonen, twice in the last two weeks—in races considered Boonen’s home turf. All that aside, Cancellara’s biggest asset is his team. With experienced domestiques including Stuart O’Grady (the 2007 Roubaix winner), Baden Cooke, and Frank Hoj, look to see Saxo Bank massed at the front of the peloton well into the race’s final phases. Better still, Cancellara has a lieutenant strong enough the race himself—Matti Breschel. Combine condition, experience, confidence, and team with a dash of luck, and Paris-Roubaix is Cancellara’s race to lose.

It’s to hard to believe that Quick Step’s Tom Boonen comes into this year’s Paris-Roubaix as a slight underdog considering he’s the two-time defending champion and the winner of three of the last five editions. Boonen’s also took second in Milan-San Remo, the E3 Prijs Vlaanderen, and last Sunday’s Tour of Flanders—an impressive haul for most riders. That said, there’s just one thing separating Boonen from being a shoo-in to take a record-tying fourth Roubaix: Fabian Cancellara. To beat Spartacus, Boonen needs to ride with confidence and a bit of luck to go with the form that’s obviously there. He’ll also need more support from his team than he received last week. The world’s fastest time trialist, Cancellara won Flanders partly because he was able to isolate Boonen early, forcing him to ride mano a mano in what was essentially a two-man time trial to the foot of the Muur. His legs clearly spent from the sustained power output, Boonen was unable to respond to Cancellara’s inevitable surge. Tomorrow, Boonen will need his teammates, notably Stijn Devolder, to ease the pressure on their captain before the race enters its crucial sectors—especially since Cancellara’s team seems to be much stronger. If Boonen can exit the Arenberg Forest with at least 2 or 3 teammates at his side, he’ll be in good shape; if he’s isolated early though, it could mean the end of his terrific run at Roubaix.

4-Stone Favorites

The next two riders on the list come to this year’s edition of the Hell of the North with new teams and fine condition—two things they’ll need to overcome Cancellara and Boonen—and years of near misses.

Team Sky’s Juan Antonio Flecha is a rider unafraid to attack in Paris-Roubaix, but bad luck, poor team support, and foolish choices have often prevented him from taking the win. A victory in this year’s Omloop Het Nieuwsblad seemed to indicate that Flecha—thanks to the support of a powerful Team Sky—had finally shrugged the cobbled monkey from his back. However, missed chances in the E3 Prijs and the Tour of Flanders have some wondering if Flecha’s Omloop was more a result of timing than a signal of bigger things to come. That said, I think Flecha can win this race. Roubaix’s always suited him more than Flanders—he’s a powerful rider, capable of the long, sustained in-the-saddle efforts from which Roubaix winners are born. Furthermore, he has a talented team entirely devoted to getting him the win. If Flecha’s able to take advantage of what might certainly become a two-man staring contest between Cancellara and Boonen, he could ride away to take the biggest win of his career—and the first cobbled monument ever to go to a Spaniard.

BMC’s George Hincapie is next on our list of favorites, and is another man hoping a new team and some incredible form might propel him to the win that’s eluded him throughout his career. Hincapie’s progressed nicely through the classics, following his 4th place in Ghent-Wevelgem with a 6th place in the Tour of Flanders. Hincapie has indeed fielded some criticism for what seems to be a penchant for missing the “big move”—Sunday’s Ronde seemed to add fuel to the fire. Optimists like me hope last Sunday was just an indication that Big George is peaking just in time for Roubaix, a race a bit more suited to his powerful style. He enters Sunday as Co-captain with Marcus Burghardt, a man who could certainly ease the pressure on George in a race where he’s often found himself alone earlier than most. Alessandro Ballan would have been another valuable asset, but he’s been scratched following a “suspension” due to his rumored involvement in the Mantova doping investigation. Like Flecha, Hincapie needs to take advantage of a possible Cancellara-Boonen stalemate should the two top favorites prove unwilling to take the bull by the horns. If George can pull it off, it will be the finest day of his long career, and quite possibly all he needs to call it one too.

Our last 4-Stone favorite again faces the difficult task of trying to win the race for himself while riding in support of more-favored rider. Saxo Bank’s Matti Breschel appeared to be the strongest man in last Sunday’s Tour of Flanders before a mechanical and a botched bike change ruined his day. Now he comes to Roubaix eager to prove to himself and his suitors for 2011 that he’s the real deal. If he plays his cards right, he might just get his chance, as a Roubaix is a race where loyal teammates often find themselves in winning situations—especially riding for heavy favorites. (Just ask Servais Knaven.) Remember, Breschel finished 10th in Roubaix last year, a result he earned more or less on his own merits. With such a crowded situation at the top of the field, Breschel’s just the type of man to take advantage of the logjam to win it all for himself—if he can ride with more calm and poise than he did last week.

3-Stone Favorites 

While perhaps, a step below Matti Breschel, Stijn Devolder’s another rider who could benefit from his team captain’s status as top favorite. The last two years, Devolder’s come to Roubaix on the downswing following wins in the previous Sunday’s Tour of Flanders. His form seems a bit late this year though, something that might just push him over the edge in Roubaix—a race where he’s showed some potential in the past, albeit with nothing to show for it. This year, with dry conditions and a supporting role, Devolder might just add a Paris-Roubaix to his two Flanders victories. If he does, look for Quick Step’s post-race press conference to contain more fireworks and/or icy stares than the race itself.

Along with Hincapie, I’ll be rooting for Katusha’s Filippo Pozzato to win tomorrow’s race. While enjoying the form of his life heading into the Tour of Flanders, Pozzato was forced to fly home with a nasty flu during the 3-Days of DePanne. Pozzato’s back now—he finished Wednesday’s Scheldeprijs—but admits to being a step below where he was two weeks ago. While it remains to be seen where exactly his fitness lies, it’s clear that Pozzato feels no pressure for Sunday—and that’s a good thing. Roubaix’s a race where anxiety and nervousness can take their toll—cases in point: Flecha and Hincapie. If Pozzato feels good and has a chance to play his card, he could go one step higher than last year’s 2nd place, becoming the first man to win as Italian Champion since Andrea Tafi in 1999.

I guess there’s something about Roubaix and near misses. Cervelo Test Team’s Thor Hushovd could have won last’s year edition had he not crashed on the Le Carrefour de l'Arbre sector, 20 kilometers from the end. This year, Hushovd’s not had the season he and his team were expecting, with sickness, injury, and poor form taking their toll on what was hoped would be a breakthrough season the team. That said, as many of the favorites certainly know, Hushovd’s not to be discounted. He’ll make the splits during the middle third of the race; it’s the final sectors that will determine whether Mighty Thor becomes the second Scandinavian winner of the Hell of the North. The good weather works in his favor, eliminating one variable from an already chaotic and nervous event.

Speaking of second chances, Omega Pharma-Lotto’s Leif Hoste might be known more for his missed opportunities in the Tour of Flanders—he’s finished second three times. This year, Hoste rode a solid Ronde in support of Phillippe Gilbert; as a result he’ll have a strong team including Greg Van Avermaet and Jurgen Roelandts at his disposal in Roubaix. Another rider who could capitalize on hesitation at the top, Hoste will need to demonstrate a willingness to make the race for himself should the opportunity present itself—something we have yet to see from the Belgian. Lotto’s the only team not to have won a race this year—there’s no better time than now for Hoste to end that streak.

Marcus Burghardt has quietly proven himself to be one of the most consistent riders in the cobbled classics over the past few years. He’s overlooked by virtue of the fact that his breakthrough win preceded several top finishes; usually the opposite is the case. Technically the Co-captain of the BMC squad taking the start in Compiegne, Burghardt might have to defer to George Hincapie’s latest attempt to add Paris-Roubaix to his resume. That said, like Breschel and Devolder, Burghardt might find a supporting role just the leash he needs to position himself for a win—especially if other teams give their lieutenants similar opportunities. And with Hincapie known for his “it’s all about the team” mentality, he’ll have an advantage over men with more jealous leaders.

2-Stone Favorites

I can’t understand why Tyler Farrar’s not getting more attention following his solid run of results leading into this weekend’s race. With top-10 finishes in Ghent-Wevelgem and the Tour of Flanders, Farrar clearly has the legs to handle 200-plus kilometers of hard racing and still have something in the tank for the finale. His win in Wednesday’s Scheldepriis indicates his form is still rising. While Farrar has said he’s riding in support of Martijn Maaskant and Johan Vansummeren, I see those comments as nothing more than a smokescreen as Farrar’s clearly a step above his two Benelux teammates. Do I think Farrar can win? No. Do I see him finishing in the top-10 and possibly top-5? Absolutely. While many view Farrar as a true field sprinter, I see him as more of classics rider—like Museeuw early in his career. That’s a bold comparison, I know; but after Sunday, it might just prove prophetic.

Lars Boom leads Rabobank into Sunday along with Joost Posthuma. While Boom plays down the role his cyclocross background will have, I think it merits at least some attention for the confidence it could give the Dutchman heading into the race’s rougher patches of pavé. While Boom might still be a few years away from being a serious candidate for the win, he could find himself in a breakaway that might propel to a top-10 result. For a nation starved for a true cobble-contender, that’s an accomplishment worthy of merit.

1-Stone Dark Horses

Peter Sagan was inexplicably left home for a few weeks following his two stage wins in Paris-Nice. While I understand the need to protect the young Slovakian’s development (he’s only 20), I can’t understand why he didn’t at least deserve a start in Milan-San Remo. I guess management was afraid of Daniele Bennati being upstaged. Regardless, Sunday is Sagan’s first start in a classic—what a stage for a debut! And while the odds are overwhelmingly against him, consider these 3 things: Sagan has proven unfazed by the top-level competition he’s faced so far this season; he finished 2nd in the 2008 junior Paris-Roubaix; and he’s a former World Junior Cyclocross Champion. While he might be forced to ride for Manuel Quinziato and Daniel Oss, by the end of the day Sunday, expect to see Sagan’s name near the top of the results.

Like the now-retired Wilfred Peeters, Matthew Hayman is a super-domestique deserving of one big day. He rode an aggressive race in last week’s Tour of Flanders, at one time escaping from the front only to be caught by the eventual winning move. A rider capable of high wattage outputs on the pavé, Hayman is more of a sentimental favorite than anything else. At the end of the day, he’ll defer to his captain Juan Antonio Flecha; but once his work his done, a top-10 finish is certainly within the Australian’s reach.

Others to watch include BBox's Steve Chainel, another talented young star who's proven his mettle thus far this spring; Bernhard Eisel a savvy rider benefiting from several departures from HTC; and Bjorn Leukemans, a man hoping to show the ASO just what it's missing by not inviting his Vacansoleil team to the Tour.

So there you have it, Pavé’s 2010 Paris-Roubaix Preview. I’s interesting how closely it compares to last year’s imaginary 2010 Preview. Will the result resembles last year’s as well? Only time will tell.

For now, enjoy the race—you can follow Pavé on Twitter for live commentary—and share your comments and picks below.

Cancellara RVV Bike Change Video

This didn't work the first time I tried to post it, so I did a video screen capture and tried my best to get a good copy of the footage--so excuse the first few moments.

As for the action itself, well--it speaks for itself.  Enjoy!

Free online screen recorder

One note: if you are the original owner of this footage and would not like it shared, please contact me and I'll be happy to take it down and/or credit you for filming it.

Cancellara's Bike Change - Terrific Video

Today's Monday Musette is on it's way--but until then, enjoy this video of Cancellara's bike change.  Does a cyclocross career beckon for the Swiss star?



Come back soon for more!

Monday Musette - Milan-San Remo Wrap-up

Saturday’s Milan-San Remo went-off without a hitch--despite the weather’s best attempts to ruin the day. After 298 kilometers of racing in cold, rainy conditions, it was a Spaniard who ended-up with the victory. Funny how two men from warmer, sunnier climates have taken wins in two of the season’s grimiest races thus far. Here’s what we learned:

1. I remember watching the 1999 World Championship Road Race in Verona, Italy with friends on a television in my apartment in Leuven, Belgium. When a young, unknown Spaniard surprised a select group of favorites including Francesco Casagrande, Frank Vandenbroucke, and Jan Ullrich, we all felt a bit ripped-off. But after 2 more World Titles, 7 Vuelta stage wins, 4 Tour stage wins, 1 Ghent-Wevelgem, and now 3 Milan-San Remo’s I think it’s time for me to officially apologize to Oscar Freire for years of underrating him. With the changes to this year’s Belgian calendar, Freire has a terrific opportunity to take yet another win in Sunday’s Ghent-Wevelgem—especially since many of his main rivals might choose to take Saturday’s E3 Prijs more seriously. Congratulations, Oscar. I won’t overlook you again—at least for one more week.

2. Tom Boonen was satisfied with a respectable 2nd place in San Remo—even though Freire blew his doors off in the sprint. What impressed me most was Boonen’s positioning on the Cipressa and Poggio—he rode attentively and comfortably at the front of the peloton, consistently placed within the first 10 or so riders. Clearly his form for Flanders and Roubaix has arrived. Unfortunately, I wonder if he might find himself too heavily marked in Flanders to take a third win. On the other hand, it’s essentially every man for himself on the pavé of Paris-Roubaix—at this point only Pozzato, Hushovd, and Cancellara look to have the condition to ride with him there. Then again, those races are still 2 and 3 weeks away—maybe it’s too soon to speculate?

3. As for Pippo Pozzato, he seemed to ride as if he had read the “This will come down to a sprint” writing on the wall. Knowing he had relatively little chances against sprinters such as Freire, Boonen, Bennati, and Hushovd, he seemed content to treat the race’s finale as an opportunity to test his legs on the attack. To be honest, when he rolled-off the front in pursuit of Vincenzo Nibali with 2km to go, I thought he would take his second victory—too bad the rest had other things in mind. At Flanders though, they might find catching up to Pozzato an entirely different enterprise.

4. And speaking of Hushovd, he made the leading group, ultimately sprinting to a slid 6th-place finish. With Flanders and Roubaix still weeks away, Thor looks to have starting his crescendo at just the right time. Unfortunately, it was also announced that he won’t have the support of Heinrich Haussler; his knee injury seems to be worse than expected, keeping out of races until later this spring.

5. Philippe Gilbert’s attack on the Poggio and subsequent 9th place finish confirmed his candidacy for a win in Flanders—Roubaix’s not very suited to his strengths. While his attack had little effect on the race itself, it served noticed to everyone—including the Belgian press—that he’s not to be overlooked.

6. And finally, we must mention Fabian Cancellara, another rider who led a quiet build-up to Saturday’s race. Spartacus rode comfortably with the lead group, finishing the day in 17th place. Like Hushovd, he appears on-track for a solid cobbled campaign.

7. Moving away from the pre-race favorites, Quick Step’s Sylvain Chavanel looks to be peaking quite nicely. If Boonen finds himself too heavily marked, Chavanel could play Devolder’s role in Flanders, possibly getting the win we all know he deserves. Regardless, his condition means teams will have two Quick Step riders with which to contend; an advantage few teams are able to match.

8. BMC’s Marcus Burghardt was his team’s only rider to finish with the leaders. As he seems to be peaking a bit sooner than his teammates Ballan and Hincapie (both of whom came in with the second group, 1:40 behind), look for him to impress this Sunday in Ghent-Wevelgem, a race he won in 2007. The German has also recorded top-5 finishes in both Dwars door Vlaanderen and the E3 Prijs in the past—it’s a shame they weren’t invited to Dwars, but it still could be a good weekend for the squad.

9. As we expected, Colnago’s Sacha Modolo finishing 4th on Saturday, continuing his string of top results from Tirreno-Adriatico. I know it’s a bit early to talk transfers, but look for him to be snapped-up by a team with an aging sprinter before next season—Lampre and Katusha might be possibilities—especially if he manages to grab a stage win or two in this year’s Giro.

10. Liquigas rode a fantastic race for Daniele Bennati with Vincenzo Nibali and Roman Kreuziger playing roles as prominent as we expected. Unfortunately, Bennati could manage no better than 5th. Clearly he’s a second-tier field sprinter, able to win only when better, faster competition is absent. Stick to Tirreno, DePanne, and the Vuelta, my friend. And by the way, give Liquigas the first “What Were They Thinking?” Award of 2010 for leaving Peter Sagan—a double stage-winner in Paris-Nice—at home.

11. Unfortunately, Tyler Farrar’s performance Saturday might put him in the same category as Bennati—although Bennati made it to the finish with the lead group. If Farrar’s team can’t position him well in a finale as straightforward as Milan-San Remo’s then what will they do in the cobbled classics, races with much more difficult profiles?

Two final thoughts from Saturday:

12. What the heck was Stefano Garzelli doing on the Poggio? Several sources claimed he attacked, but in my opinion he simply set a hard pace—but for whom?

13. Did you notice the prevalence of super-deep carbon fiber rear wheels? If this is indeed a new trend, I don’t get it. But I’m like that.

Time permitting, I’ve got a big week planned for Pavé. Here’s the schedule for the next several days:

Tuesday: Dwars Door Vlaanderen Preview
Wednesday: 5 Questions for the Cobbled Classics
Thursday: Dwars Door Vlaanderen Wrap-up/What We Learned
Friday: Weekend Preview(s) E3 and Criterium International
Saturday: Ghent-Wevelgem Preview

It’s an ambitious program, but I think I’m up for it—at least I hope so.

Thanks for reading! Share your comments below

Tirreno-Adriatico - What We Learned

Italy’s Tirreno-Adriatico wrapped-up yesterday with Sky’s Edvald Boasson Hagen sprinting to the stage win ahead of Alessandro Petacchi and Sacha Modolo. Let’s take a minute or two to discuss what we learned during the “Race of the Two Seas”.

1. Tom Boonen’s ready to win Milan-San Remo. Judging from his win in Stage 2 and a day spent on the attack in Stage 6, Tom Boonen’s sights seem squarely set on a victory in Saturday’s Milan-San Remo. With a team dedicated to his success, another Monument win seems to be a very real possibility for the Belgian Champion.

2. Astana’s not a one-trick pony. While all eyes were on Alberto Contador’s battle with Caisse d’Epargne in France, the rest of his team was quietly turning heads in Italy. Maxim Iglinksy started the ball rolling with a fantastic win in L’Eroica on the Saturday before Tirreno and Enrico Gasparotto took a win in similar fashion in Tirreno’s Stage 5. Furthermore, there was always an Astana rider in the breakaway as they were clearly one of the most aggressive teams to take part. At this point, it’s easy to see why some are quietly wondering if the departure of Armstrong and Co. was a good thing for the team.

3. The jury’s still out on BMC for the cobbled classics. Cadel Evans aggressively raced to a 3rd-place finish, almost winning a stage in the process. Aside from that, there wasn’t much to write home about from BMC. Hincapie claims his form is improving, while Burghardt spent the day in the break on Stage 6, ultimately being one of the last men to be caught. And Alessandro Ballan? Well, there’s not much to say there. Overall, while there were no signs of regression—no sickness or crashes laid claim to any of BMC’s top guns—there was nothing to indicate continued progress toward the team’s northern goals.

4. Fabian Cancellara and his Saxo Bank team were notably absent from the proceedings. This is either really good or really bad for Spartacus’ competitors come the cobbled classics. He and Ballan are two riders hoping for a return to winning form in time for Flanders and Roubaix—here’s hoping their quiet week in Italy is a sign of bigger things to come.

5. It’s not over ‘til the bald Italian sings. Credit Stefano Garzelli and his team for continuing the race for the overall title through the final day. One can only wonder what would happen if two riders were to head into the Tour’s final stage with mere seconds between them—would we see something resembling the last stage at Tirreno?

6. And speaking of Garzelli and good form, it looks like Pavé is coming into form as well—if I may say so myself. Allow me to quote from our Tirreno-Adriatico Preview:

“And let’s not forget the Italians hoping to score a stage or two in front of their home crowds, men like Giovanni Visconti, Stefano Garzelli, and last year’s winner Michele Scarponi come to mind. Here’s where you might find an overall favorite or two, as they’re fast enough to finish near the front in a sprint, while aggressive and lithe enough to perhaps steal time on hillier days. Scarponi won the race last year; he’ll be extra-motivated to defend to his title.”

Obvious choices? Perhaps—but it still feels good to be right every once in a while.

Although I’ve probably just jinxed myself for the rest of the season.

What about you? What did you take away from this year’s Tirreno-Adriatico? Share your thoughts below.

Worlds ITT Preview

While its Start List isn’t as star-studded as Sunday’s Road Race, tomorrow’s World Championship ITT possesses no shortage of riders capable of winning the Rainbow Skinsuit. Luckily, the list itself is short, making it easy to sort the contenders from the pretenders. Let’s take a look at the 10 whom we feel have the best chances for a strong performance. We’ll rank them in their predicted order of finish, beginning with #10.

10th Place – Dominique Cornu – Belgium
Cornu won the 2006 World U23 ITT title and is always an outside threat to pull a good result in an ITT. He didn’t ride the Vuelta, but he still remains a dark horse capable of a top-ten finish.

9th Place – Ignatas Konovalovas – Lithuania
Konovalovas stunned everyone when he won the final stage of this year’s Giro. His results in the Vuelta were somewhat lackluster, but he’s certainly capable of finishing just inside the Top-10 in Mendrisio.

8th Place – Marco Pinotti – Italy
Being the 4-time reigning Italian National Time Trial Champion has to mean something, right? Pinotti will have enough of fan base in Mendrisio to warrant a good ride. Columbia-HTC could end the day with 5 riders in the Top-10—he’ll be the first (from the bottom up, that is).

7th Place – Tony Martin – Germany
Tony’s had a relatively quiet late summer and early fall following his revelatory ride in the first weeks of the Tour. He’s always been known as a time trialist though; look for him to get himself back on everyone’s radar with a strong performance tomorrow.

6th Place – Frantisek Rabon – Czech Republic
Rabon’s another of Columbia’s slew of time trialists. He rode the Vuelta, but put in what have to be considered ho-hum ITT performances at best. Still, he’s a talented man against the clock, and is certainly capable of a finish in the middle of the Top-10.

5th Place – Bradley Wiggins – Great Britain
I’m sorry, but I think the wheels are about to fall-off for the men in red, white, and blue (they did have it first, my American friends). Cavendish has already pulled-out of the road race (why was he even thinking of riding such a hilly event?), and now I think Wiggo will fall short of where most English-speakers are hoping he’ll be. Cite whatever reasons you like, but I think it will come down to whatever pressure he’s feeling as a result of the contractual tug of war being waged between Sky and Garmin. Sure, it’s usually the agents who sort these things out, but don’t you think BW’s phone has been ringing off-the-hook with people wanting to know the latest? It wears on a rider, really it does. Maybe next year, Brad. For now, you’ll have to be content with 5th.

4th Place – Lars Boom – The Netherlands
In my opinion, there’s only one rider capable of upsetting Fabian Cancellara and it’s Lars Boom. Realistically, the talented crosser (can we even say this anymore?) is probably more suited for the Top-5, but I think he’s by far the man with the deepest talent. If he wins gold, you can say you heard it here first. If he finishes 4th, well…I guess you can say you heard it here too!

Bronze Medal – Bert Grabsch – Germany
Germany gets both of its entrants in the Top-10 with last year’s champion only mustering 3rd. He’d be a favorite for a repeat if not for the two riders ahead of him.

Silver Medal – Edvald Boassen Hagen – Norway
I think Boassen Hagen’s a smart guy. I think he knows that his team is perhaps a bit over-matched for Sunday and that he might need to take his stab at a World Championship a few days earlier. I think he knows that everyone’s all but giving Cancellara the gold medal outright—a lot of pressure for any man. Sounds to me like a recipe for an upset. But if Boassen Hagen wins—given the August and September he’s had—can it really be called an upset?

Gold Medal – Fabian Cancellara – Switzerland
Um, let’s see:
1st, Prologue, Tour of California
1st, Prologue, Tour de Suisse
1st, Stage 9 (ITT), Tour de Suisse
1st, Stage 1 (ITT), Tour de France
1st Stage 1 (ITT), Vuelta a España
1st Stage 7 (ITT), Vuelta a España

Is there really any doubt? Cancellara will win his 5th Worlds gold medal. The competition is fierce—especially at the back-end of the start list—but Spartacus should claim the title that—as his results can attest—should be rightfully his.

So there you have it—tomorrow’s Top-10 a day early. Who did we leave out? Who’s your pick for the Rainbow Skinsuit?

Share your comments below.

Monday Musings - Death of a Legend and Suisse Wrap-up

1. I don't like it either. Race reports are smaller. Less photos. Information is scattered and difficult to locate. Don't get me wrong, it's still the go-to site for all our cycling needs, but I can't help the sense I'm beginning to the feel the way I've come to feel about Velonews' new print layout and schedule. The worst part? Apparently they've eliminated their entire history in the process. Wondering who won the 5th stage of the 2001 Paris-Nice? Forget it. This leaves a considerable void; hopefully not for long.

So now where will you go for all the latest news and reports? Share your thoughts in the "Comments" section below.

And does anyone happen to know a good database for cycling records and results? We need one now.

UPDATE: You can access the "old" site by clicking "Full Archive" on the top right menu on the "new" site. Thanks for the tip, Jeremy!

2. In case you missed it, Columbia-Highroad owned the Tour de Suisse, romping to wins in 6 of the race's 9 stages. Even more impressive? They did it with 5 different riders!

And lest we forget, Saxo Bank won the other 3 stages and the GC. Cancellara's win has some folks claiming the race wasn't hard enough. To me, it just shows the effects of a spring more or less "off" for Spartacus.

And no, he's not a GC-rider! Remember the 2006 Hincapie Experiment? Let's learn from our mistakes. That said, if Fabian doesn't take the yellow jersey when the Tour begins on July 4th, it will be huge upset.

3. Did you notice that Frank Schleck didn't start the final stage yesterday? Did you notice Andy Schleck finished 15th? I know everyone's talking about the impending Astana feud, but it will also be interesting to see how the Brothers Schleck interact come Tour-time. Is Frank a step behind Andy, or is he simply timing his form a bit later?

Update: Apparently, Frank's suffering from knee pain following his fall in Amstel. This will be interesting to follow, especially since it will take the pressure off him come July. Don't write him off yet.

4. Roman Kreuzinger did not defend his win in last year's Tour de Suisse, but that's a good thing. Ever-present near the front when the race mattered, Kreuzinger looks all set for a banner July. He can climb and he can time trial (better than most of the the other GC favorites despite the above photo). A top-5 pacing is certainly within his reach, especially if his talented young teammates can rally around him.

5. Just a hunch, but in yet another demonstration of just how beneficial taking the spring "off" can be, put Alessandro Ballan down for the Italian National Championship and a stage in this year's Tour.

6. The TDS also marked the return of Kim Kirchen. A proven contender, Kirchen gives Columbia at least one rider to back for the GC. (But do they need to? Wouldn't winning say, 15 stages, be enough for them?)

7. In tech news--yes, we're not unaware of the technical side of things--Frank Schleck appears to be riding a new Specialized S-Works Tarmac in this photo from the weekend. Maybe it's a new paint job, but now's the time of year when companies begin unveiling their latest and greatest.

That's it for today! Remember to share your comments with the rest of us. Have a great week!