Yesterday was Memorial Day—the unofficial first day of summer—and I took advantage of a day-off from work to indulge--and ride. Here’s this week’s Musette.
1. It’s hard to believe this year’s Giro has come and gone—but it has. Credit Ivan Basso for quickly one-upping Alexander Vinokourov’s win in L-B-L with a grand tour win following his 2-year suspension—I’ll admit I was surprised. Before the race, things looked a bit dire for Liquigas. Franco Pellizotti was suspended, Nibali was a last-minute addition, and Basso was admittedly a bit behind in his preparation. In hindsight, everything worked-out perfectly for the men in green: Nibali was a perfect lieutenant, and Basso was able to ride himself into winning-form by the time the race entered its final, difficult week. Even better, he was able to do so confident in the knowledge that he was his team’s undisputed leader.
Now the big question for Liquigas is Vincenzo Nibali. Will he recover from his 3rd-place in time for another top performance in the Tour; or will his efforts have relegated him to uber-lieutenant to Roman Kreuziger. Time will tell, but I’m hopeful Nibali can rebound in time to give Italy a legitimate podium contender in July.
As for David Arroyo, he did everything he needed to in order to defend his spot on the final podium—too bad the achievement was overshadowed by the suspension of his teammate.
2. Cadel Evans once again fell short of winning a grand tour. While I thought he had the confidence and the fitness to win the race, it’s now obvious that Evans is more suited to one-day classics and short stage races. Still, I think he might have one last chance for grand tour glory at this year’s Vuelta.
Were I running BMC, I’d send him to the Dauphiné—aside from a certain Spaniard, there’s a relatively weak field competing and he Evans take an important victory. Then I would rest him during the Tour or send him only for training and stage wins. Following a post-Tour vacation, he can then build for the Vuelta—a race he can win without Valverde taking part—and Worlds in Australia.
It’s a pretty straightforward plan, but it hinges upon one minor concept: relinquishing the Tour dream. Cadel’s still at the peak of his career—how long can he continue to waste time chasing races he has virtually no shot of winning?
3. In other national tour news, bad weather and a puncture kept Philippe Gilbert from winning the Tour of Belgium. Imagine that! Bad weather and punctures in Belgium?
4. Speaking of the ToB, Stijn Devolder took the overall win—maybe his time in the wind tunnel made a difference. I wonder if his win—plus a possible second Belgian Championship—will be enough for him to keep his spot with Quick Step. Then again, does he even want a spot with Quick Step?
5. In other racing news, the Tour of Luxembourg begins tomorrow, marking Lance Armstrong’s return to racing following his (un)timely crash in the Tour of California. Lance is quickly running out of time for peak Tour fitness. Luxembourg and Switzerland are his last two dates before July. My money’s on Frank Schleck, Andreas Kloden, and Giovanni Visconti to constitute the top-3.
6. Did you see that BMC’s Alessandro Ballan’s snuck onto the early start list for the Tour of Switzerland? Did I miss something?
7. I sometimes have a tough time explaining the difference between irony and coincidence to high school students. So I leave this one up to you: was the timing of Valverde’s suspension announcement ironic or coincidental? Discuss.
8. And by the way, I was only kidding when I hinted about it last week, but apparently some have taken the ball and started running with the motorized doping/boosting/cheating story—the conspiracy theory seems to be gaining momentum. Here’s a handy video that explains everything you need to know:
Would Davide Cassani have been so quick to throw stones had Pozzato won a cobbled monument? Regardless, it’s a spooky concept. I look forward to seeing what the UCI does to combat the threat—I bet it’s hilarious!
9. In related news, I’m pleased to announce that Pavé has become the official US importer for the Gruber Assist. (There’s something about a goat with wings that I think will look swell on our next jersey.)
Enjoy your week!
Share your comments below.
Showing posts with label evans. Show all posts
Showing posts with label evans. Show all posts
Tuesday, June 1, 2010
Friday, May 21, 2010
Weekend Preview - The Giro Hits the Mountains and the ATOC Heads to Hollywood
With mountain action from Italy and the final two days of the 2010 Amgen Tour of California, this weekend looks to be the most exciting since April. Let's take a look at what's in store:
1. The Giro was turned on its head Wednesday when a large group of riders broke away from the main field to finish several minutes ahead of the peloton. About 40 riders benefitted from large chunks of time, with Carlos Sastre and Bradley Wiggins regaining all the time they lost earlier in the race—and then some. It’s hard to imagine how Astana, BMC, and Liquigas could have allowed such a large group of riders to accrue such huge amounts of time; as a result, we head to the weekend with the “real” GC looking like this:
1. David Arroyo (Spa) Caisse d'Epargne
2. Linus Gerdemann (Ger) Team Milram +3:52
3. Carlos Sastre (Spa) Cervelo Test Team +5:27
4. Bradley Wiggins (GBr) Sky Professional Cycling Team +6:32
5. Alexandre Vinokourov (Kaz) Astana +8:06
6. Vladimir Karpets (Rus) Team Katusha +8:24
7. Cadel Evans (Aus) BMC Racing Team +9:28
8. Vincenzo Nibali (Ita) Liquigas-Doimo +9:36
9. Ivan Basso (Ita) Liquigas-Doimo +9:57
10. Stefano Garzelli (Ita) Acqua & Sapone +10:50
11. Damiano Cunego (Ita) Lampre-Farnese Vini +11:11
12. Michele Scarponi (Ita) Androni Giocattoli +11:12
Things are about to get serious this weekend as the race heads to the mountains—look for changes. Of the eight remaining stages in this year’s Giro, five of them end with a summit finish. While tomorrow’s Stage 14 from Ferrara to Asolo doesn’t end with a climb, it might as well as the riders tackle the Monte Grappa, an 18-kilometer climb averaging 9%. With the summit a mere 40-kilometers from the finish line, the win will likely emerge from a breakaway, someone able to handle the long, technical descent safely and smoothly. While the overall favorites might choose to rest their legs for Sunday, there still should be a selection causing at least one top rider to lose time—the Monte Grappa’s just that hard. This will be the make-or-break day for a man like Bradley Wiggins. We’ll know how seriously he’s taking final week of the race by how he well he fares Saturday.
As for Sunday, well, that’s when things really get ugly—at least for the riders. For fans, it should be an exciting day as the riders tackle 3 categorized climbs before a summit finish atop the infamous Monte Zoncolan, a long, steep climb that should be packed with fans. Monday’s rest day assures that the big hitters will race all-out to assert themselves in the quest for the final maglia rosa—they’ll have a day recover from whatever efforts ensue. Likewise, a bad day Sunday might spell the end of several contenders’ hopes.
Look for Carlos Sastre to use the Zoncolan to begin punishing the rest for their foolish mistake on Wednesday—this stage is tailor-made for a rider with his talents. While Sastre looks to be the rider best positioned to take control of the race, Liquigas is clearly the best team. Vincenzo Nibali and Ivan Basso are hitting their top form at just the right time, making them a formidable duo with which the rest must contend. On the flipside, Cadel Evans and Alexander Vinokourov are doing everything they can just to hold it together, with both having lost significant portions of their teams (and sanity?) over the past several days. Evans might be a used to riding with less than desirable support—he’s done it for years; but Vino might find the prospect a bit too daunting. No matter the weekend winners, by Sunday night we should have a much clearer picture of who might be wearing the pink jersey one week later.
2. As for the Amgen Tour of California, the race concludes this weekend with 34-kilometer individual time trial around Los Angeles and a 134-kilometer circuit race in Thousand Oaks. Both days should prove pivotal to the determination the overall winner—the time trial especially. We’ll have a better sense of the main contenders following today’s stage to Big Bear, but I think it’s safe to say we’re looking at a 3-horse race between Michael Rogers, Dave Zabriskie, and Levi Leipheimer. Jens Voigt and Peter Sagan deserve some consideration, but they should lose time later this afternoon on the way to Big Bear.
The final two stages should be pretty exciting, as Rogers, Zabriskie, and Leipheimer are evenly matched in an ITT. If they finish close to one another Saturday—which is likely—look for Sunday’s circuit race to be a battle all the way to the line. Assuming no changes in the top-3 Friday, I see Rogers taking the overall win. His team is stronger and he’s really the only rider capable of beating Levi and Dave Z. against the clock—aside from a certain Swiss rider on Team Saxo Bank.
All in all, it looks like we’re in for an exciting weekend—you can start your days in Italy, and end them in California (should Versus decide to show the entire stages).
Who are your picks for the weekend? Share them below—and have a great weekend?
1. The Giro was turned on its head Wednesday when a large group of riders broke away from the main field to finish several minutes ahead of the peloton. About 40 riders benefitted from large chunks of time, with Carlos Sastre and Bradley Wiggins regaining all the time they lost earlier in the race—and then some. It’s hard to imagine how Astana, BMC, and Liquigas could have allowed such a large group of riders to accrue such huge amounts of time; as a result, we head to the weekend with the “real” GC looking like this:
1. David Arroyo (Spa) Caisse d'Epargne
2. Linus Gerdemann (Ger) Team Milram +3:52
3. Carlos Sastre (Spa) Cervelo Test Team +5:27
4. Bradley Wiggins (GBr) Sky Professional Cycling Team +6:32
5. Alexandre Vinokourov (Kaz) Astana +8:06
6. Vladimir Karpets (Rus) Team Katusha +8:24
7. Cadel Evans (Aus) BMC Racing Team +9:28
8. Vincenzo Nibali (Ita) Liquigas-Doimo +9:36
9. Ivan Basso (Ita) Liquigas-Doimo +9:57
10. Stefano Garzelli (Ita) Acqua & Sapone +10:50
11. Damiano Cunego (Ita) Lampre-Farnese Vini +11:11
12. Michele Scarponi (Ita) Androni Giocattoli +11:12
Things are about to get serious this weekend as the race heads to the mountains—look for changes. Of the eight remaining stages in this year’s Giro, five of them end with a summit finish. While tomorrow’s Stage 14 from Ferrara to Asolo doesn’t end with a climb, it might as well as the riders tackle the Monte Grappa, an 18-kilometer climb averaging 9%. With the summit a mere 40-kilometers from the finish line, the win will likely emerge from a breakaway, someone able to handle the long, technical descent safely and smoothly. While the overall favorites might choose to rest their legs for Sunday, there still should be a selection causing at least one top rider to lose time—the Monte Grappa’s just that hard. This will be the make-or-break day for a man like Bradley Wiggins. We’ll know how seriously he’s taking final week of the race by how he well he fares Saturday.
As for Sunday, well, that’s when things really get ugly—at least for the riders. For fans, it should be an exciting day as the riders tackle 3 categorized climbs before a summit finish atop the infamous Monte Zoncolan, a long, steep climb that should be packed with fans. Monday’s rest day assures that the big hitters will race all-out to assert themselves in the quest for the final maglia rosa—they’ll have a day recover from whatever efforts ensue. Likewise, a bad day Sunday might spell the end of several contenders’ hopes.
Look for Carlos Sastre to use the Zoncolan to begin punishing the rest for their foolish mistake on Wednesday—this stage is tailor-made for a rider with his talents. While Sastre looks to be the rider best positioned to take control of the race, Liquigas is clearly the best team. Vincenzo Nibali and Ivan Basso are hitting their top form at just the right time, making them a formidable duo with which the rest must contend. On the flipside, Cadel Evans and Alexander Vinokourov are doing everything they can just to hold it together, with both having lost significant portions of their teams (and sanity?) over the past several days. Evans might be a used to riding with less than desirable support—he’s done it for years; but Vino might find the prospect a bit too daunting. No matter the weekend winners, by Sunday night we should have a much clearer picture of who might be wearing the pink jersey one week later.
2. As for the Amgen Tour of California, the race concludes this weekend with 34-kilometer individual time trial around Los Angeles and a 134-kilometer circuit race in Thousand Oaks. Both days should prove pivotal to the determination the overall winner—the time trial especially. We’ll have a better sense of the main contenders following today’s stage to Big Bear, but I think it’s safe to say we’re looking at a 3-horse race between Michael Rogers, Dave Zabriskie, and Levi Leipheimer. Jens Voigt and Peter Sagan deserve some consideration, but they should lose time later this afternoon on the way to Big Bear.
The final two stages should be pretty exciting, as Rogers, Zabriskie, and Leipheimer are evenly matched in an ITT. If they finish close to one another Saturday—which is likely—look for Sunday’s circuit race to be a battle all the way to the line. Assuming no changes in the top-3 Friday, I see Rogers taking the overall win. His team is stronger and he’s really the only rider capable of beating Levi and Dave Z. against the clock—aside from a certain Swiss rider on Team Saxo Bank.
All in all, it looks like we’re in for an exciting weekend—you can start your days in Italy, and end them in California (should Versus decide to show the entire stages).
Who are your picks for the weekend? Share them below—and have a great weekend?
Thursday, April 22, 2010
Flèche Wallonne Wrap-up
If you’re a frequent visitor to Pavé, you might have noticed a rather interesting conversation taking place via the comments to my Flèche Wallonne Preview. Apparently Cadel Evans’ rainbow jersey was not enough to convince many of you that a renaissance might beckon for the temperamental Australian. Unfortunately it’s not always possible for me to respond to reader comments from work, so I was forced to suffer the slings and arrows of your discontent from the sidelines—until Evans won, that is.
Here’s what else we noticed:
1. Don’t get me wrong; I’ve never been a big fan of Cadel Evans either. But that doesn’t prevent me from giving credit where credit is due. Evans timed his sprint to perfection, catching and passing a fading Alberto Contdor just meters from the line. I liked that Evans gave credit to his DS, John Lelangue, for insisting that he pre-ride the climb despite the fact that Evans has raced it several times in the past. Now the question remains: just how well can Evans do Sunday in Liege?
2. As for Alberto Contador, yesterday’s 3rd-place finish should be filed under “tactical mistakes”. While we can forgive Euskaltel’s Igor Anton for his suicide move up the Mur de Huy; Contador deserves criticism for overestimating himself and underestimating the climb. I feel like I can actually see the moment when he realizes, “S***, the line’s not where I thought it was!” Contador gets a shot at redemption Sunday, but for a man not known as a master strategist, a victory might prove to be just out of his reach.
3. Katusha’s Joaquin Rodriguez atoned for his poor showing last Sunday with a fine 2nd-place in Flèche. That said, given the aggressive rides by Sergei Ivanov and Alexandr Kolobnev, one cannot help but think the Russian squad wanted more. Credit Ivanov and Kolobnev for doing their best take matters into their own hands on several occasions. Kolobnev’s move was reminiscent of his last gasp attack in the waning moments of the Amstel Gold Race. Two races, two riders, two identical tactical displays—will things fall into place on Sunday?
4. Damiano Cunego went one better than his 6th-place in the Amstel Gold Race, an indicator that he might have timed his form just right for Sunday. It’s hard to believe, but Italy has yet to win a classic this year. That could change Sunday if Cunego gets his way.
5. The first “group” crossed the line 11 seconds behind Evans, including major favorites Philippe Gilbert, Alejandro Valverde, and Andy Schleck. These men are right on schedule for what looks to be one of the most exciting battles of the season on Sunday. Chris Horner and Ryder Hesjedal were in this group too—could a North American score an upset Sunday?
6. Landbouwkrediet’s Bert De Waele deserves praise for another fine result following his 4th-place ride Sunday in Amstel. With another top-10 performance this Sunday this Belgian might find himself in the Pro Tour next year—even at the ripe old age of 34!
7. Vincenzo Nibali climbed-in with Gilbert’s group as well—might I have underestimated his abilities in races of this sort? As long as Roman Kreuziger continues to race like a hyperactive junior, Nibali will have free rein to play his cards in race finales.
8. Robert Gesink and Daniel Martin arrived with the next gruppetto, 19 seconds back. I’m beginning to have less and less faith in Gesink’s abilities in major one-day races. As for Martin, he could prove a valuable asset to Hesjedal Sunday—the Irishman is clearly a super-talent.
And that’s that. As for the parcours, I guess some things never change—the Mur de Huy has always had an uncanny ability to separate the wheat from the chaff.
Oh gosh, I’m starting to sound more and more like Phil Liggett.
And if you have a chance, head over to Bicycling Magazine and check-out my new column as the Backseat DS. I’d love some feedback!
Have a great day--share your comments below.
Here’s what else we noticed:
1. Don’t get me wrong; I’ve never been a big fan of Cadel Evans either. But that doesn’t prevent me from giving credit where credit is due. Evans timed his sprint to perfection, catching and passing a fading Alberto Contdor just meters from the line. I liked that Evans gave credit to his DS, John Lelangue, for insisting that he pre-ride the climb despite the fact that Evans has raced it several times in the past. Now the question remains: just how well can Evans do Sunday in Liege?
2. As for Alberto Contador, yesterday’s 3rd-place finish should be filed under “tactical mistakes”. While we can forgive Euskaltel’s Igor Anton for his suicide move up the Mur de Huy; Contador deserves criticism for overestimating himself and underestimating the climb. I feel like I can actually see the moment when he realizes, “S***, the line’s not where I thought it was!” Contador gets a shot at redemption Sunday, but for a man not known as a master strategist, a victory might prove to be just out of his reach.
3. Katusha’s Joaquin Rodriguez atoned for his poor showing last Sunday with a fine 2nd-place in Flèche. That said, given the aggressive rides by Sergei Ivanov and Alexandr Kolobnev, one cannot help but think the Russian squad wanted more. Credit Ivanov and Kolobnev for doing their best take matters into their own hands on several occasions. Kolobnev’s move was reminiscent of his last gasp attack in the waning moments of the Amstel Gold Race. Two races, two riders, two identical tactical displays—will things fall into place on Sunday?
4. Damiano Cunego went one better than his 6th-place in the Amstel Gold Race, an indicator that he might have timed his form just right for Sunday. It’s hard to believe, but Italy has yet to win a classic this year. That could change Sunday if Cunego gets his way.
5. The first “group” crossed the line 11 seconds behind Evans, including major favorites Philippe Gilbert, Alejandro Valverde, and Andy Schleck. These men are right on schedule for what looks to be one of the most exciting battles of the season on Sunday. Chris Horner and Ryder Hesjedal were in this group too—could a North American score an upset Sunday?
6. Landbouwkrediet’s Bert De Waele deserves praise for another fine result following his 4th-place ride Sunday in Amstel. With another top-10 performance this Sunday this Belgian might find himself in the Pro Tour next year—even at the ripe old age of 34!
7. Vincenzo Nibali climbed-in with Gilbert’s group as well—might I have underestimated his abilities in races of this sort? As long as Roman Kreuziger continues to race like a hyperactive junior, Nibali will have free rein to play his cards in race finales.
8. Robert Gesink and Daniel Martin arrived with the next gruppetto, 19 seconds back. I’m beginning to have less and less faith in Gesink’s abilities in major one-day races. As for Martin, he could prove a valuable asset to Hesjedal Sunday—the Irishman is clearly a super-talent.
And that’s that. As for the parcours, I guess some things never change—the Mur de Huy has always had an uncanny ability to separate the wheat from the chaff.
Oh gosh, I’m starting to sound more and more like Phil Liggett.
And if you have a chance, head over to Bicycling Magazine and check-out my new column as the Backseat DS. I’d love some feedback!
Have a great day--share your comments below.
Monday, November 2, 2009
Monday Musette - Cadel, BMC, Ghent-Wevelgem, and More!
Here's what's on Pavé's mind this Monday:
1. The twitterati were abuzz this past weekend with news of Cadel Evans' transfer to BMC. Twitter's an interesting phenomenon as it allows you to witness the evolution of the news as it broke. First it was revealed that Evans did not re-sign with Silence-Lotto; then came the lists of teams with which he might land including SKY, Garmin, Radio Shack, Astana, and AG2R. Teams soon began taking themselves out of the running--with Garmin making a particular effort to clear its name (maybe to prevent Wiggo from growing more hostile?) from the list--until BMC was finally announced and confirmed as his destination.
It's yet another in a series of bold moves for BMC who--despite my comments a week ago--apparently has aspirations for a Tour invite in 2010. Evans gives them a strong GC-rider and man for the hillier classics. It will be interesting to see how they use him: will he shoot for smaller stage races and the Ardennes classics before heading to the Giro for the win; or will the team earn an early invitation to the Tour, allowing Cadel his traditional build-up to the race he would so dearly love to win? I know I've said it before, but I think Evans (among others) would be well-served by a change in focus; he could easily win Paris-Nice, the Ardennes classics, Romandie, and the Dauphiné if he so desired. A Tour stage win or two would be possible before making another late-season assault on the Vuelta and the fall monuments. Of course, Evans will probably again place his eggs in the Tour's basket again, but maybe BMC can convince him to do otherwise--if they want him to.
2. And while were talking transfers, SKY is announcing its complete roster this Friday. Consequently, we might finally gain some clarity regarding the future of Bradley Wiggins. If he indeed leaves, will Garmin move to have Contador take his place?
3. Following on the heels of news that Gent-Wevelgem has been moved to the Sunday before the Tour of Flanders comes the report that it's being lengthened as well--from 200 to about 250km. And why shouldn't it be longer? It's no longer sandwiched on the Wednesday between Flanders and Roubaix, thus giving the organizers the luxury of adding some distance to attract teams eager to use it as preparation for the following weekend. What remains to be seen is how the teams treat the E3 Prijs--the traditional Flanders testing ground--the day before. We'll have more on this in a future column, but for now, it's some intriguing food for thought.
4. For those that have asked, the final few pieces of Pavé kit are being finalized this week. We'll announce the rest of the designs and ordering information soon. Thanks to all for expressing interest--we're looking forward to the legions of Pavé riders hitting the road next year.
5. And speaking of hitting the road, Fxdwhl took us on another terrific ride through his neighborhood on Saturday. Falling leaves, crisp weather, and some muddy singletrack were the days main courses (along with a pile of dog s--- I just couldn't seem able to avoid). You can see for yourself over at lockring.not.included.
That's it for today. For more reading, feel free to head to Embrocation Cycling Journal for the latest from Pavé as well as terrific pieces from some like-minded souls.
Enjoy your week! And as always, share your comments below.
1. The twitterati were abuzz this past weekend with news of Cadel Evans' transfer to BMC. Twitter's an interesting phenomenon as it allows you to witness the evolution of the news as it broke. First it was revealed that Evans did not re-sign with Silence-Lotto; then came the lists of teams with which he might land including SKY, Garmin, Radio Shack, Astana, and AG2R. Teams soon began taking themselves out of the running--with Garmin making a particular effort to clear its name (maybe to prevent Wiggo from growing more hostile?) from the list--until BMC was finally announced and confirmed as his destination.
It's yet another in a series of bold moves for BMC who--despite my comments a week ago--apparently has aspirations for a Tour invite in 2010. Evans gives them a strong GC-rider and man for the hillier classics. It will be interesting to see how they use him: will he shoot for smaller stage races and the Ardennes classics before heading to the Giro for the win; or will the team earn an early invitation to the Tour, allowing Cadel his traditional build-up to the race he would so dearly love to win? I know I've said it before, but I think Evans (among others) would be well-served by a change in focus; he could easily win Paris-Nice, the Ardennes classics, Romandie, and the Dauphiné if he so desired. A Tour stage win or two would be possible before making another late-season assault on the Vuelta and the fall monuments. Of course, Evans will probably again place his eggs in the Tour's basket again, but maybe BMC can convince him to do otherwise--if they want him to.
2. And while were talking transfers, SKY is announcing its complete roster this Friday. Consequently, we might finally gain some clarity regarding the future of Bradley Wiggins. If he indeed leaves, will Garmin move to have Contador take his place?
3. Following on the heels of news that Gent-Wevelgem has been moved to the Sunday before the Tour of Flanders comes the report that it's being lengthened as well--from 200 to about 250km. And why shouldn't it be longer? It's no longer sandwiched on the Wednesday between Flanders and Roubaix, thus giving the organizers the luxury of adding some distance to attract teams eager to use it as preparation for the following weekend. What remains to be seen is how the teams treat the E3 Prijs--the traditional Flanders testing ground--the day before. We'll have more on this in a future column, but for now, it's some intriguing food for thought.
4. For those that have asked, the final few pieces of Pavé kit are being finalized this week. We'll announce the rest of the designs and ordering information soon. Thanks to all for expressing interest--we're looking forward to the legions of Pavé riders hitting the road next year.5. And speaking of hitting the road, Fxdwhl took us on another terrific ride through his neighborhood on Saturday. Falling leaves, crisp weather, and some muddy singletrack were the days main courses (along with a pile of dog s--- I just couldn't seem able to avoid). You can see for yourself over at lockring.not.included.
That's it for today. For more reading, feel free to head to Embrocation Cycling Journal for the latest from Pavé as well as terrific pieces from some like-minded souls.
Enjoy your week! And as always, share your comments below.
Friday, October 16, 2009
Tour of Lombardy - Preview - "Five Leaves Left"
The “race of the falling leaves” is named for its calendar placement, but it’s also a race when many of the peloton’s leaves have fallen from the tree as well. With so many riders having ended their seasons, the list of contenders for this weekend’s Tour of Lombardy is relatively short. It’s a shame though; the race takes place in the region around Lake Como—one of Italy’s most beautiful—and features several daunting, yet scenic climbs. (One can only wonder what the race would be like if it had an April start list.) Even though the potential for a dark horse victory exists, let’s take a look at the “Five Leaves Left” to contend for victory in Sunday’s final Monument.
1. Damiano Cunego was relatively quiet following his less-than-stellar showing at Worlds in Mendrisio. He took 14th and 9th last weekend at Emilia and Beghelli though, and it looks like he’s been riding within himself, measuring his efforts to save his last bit of September fitness. A 3-time winner here, Cunego certainly has a team capable of getting him where he needs to be for his fourth. His only obstacle comes in the form of Silence-Lotto’s Gilbert-Evans duo. If he can capitalize on the possible tension between the two (they both stated a desire to win), and use his teammate Ballan to his advantage, look for him to move one win closer to tying Fausto Coppi’s record of 5.
2. Philippe Gilbert put his stamp on the fall with an authoritative win in last Sunday’s Paris-Tours. Then he won the Giro del Piemonte, declaring that he’s in the best form of his life. Frankly, it’s hard to argue with him. On Sunday, Gilbert’s biggest asset might just be his teammate, Cadel Evans (if they decide to work together to exploit their numerical advantage). I give the slight edge to Gilbert in one area over the other favorites: if he arrives in a small group, he’s easily the strongest and most savvy sprinter. Should he come through for Belgium, it will cap an impressive late-season run, making him an early favorite for next year’s Spring Classics. When its all said and done, Gilbert could prove to be the most complete Classics rider since Michele Bartoli.
3. I’m starting to wonder if Cadel Evans’ form from the Vuelta and Worlds is starting to wane. He could be saving himself for Saturday, but I can’t help but think he’s a tad below his teammate Gilbert. Regardless, he’s dangerous enough that should he find himself at the front inside the last 50km, he’ll have to be taken seriously. It might be the best thing for Gilbert, having a teammate dangerous enough to make other teams chase could give him a safe ride into the finale. Or Gilbert’s presence could give Evans carte blanche to win his first race in the rainbow jersey.
4. Robert Gesink won a little vindication by winning the Giro dell’Emilia two weeks ago. It was a terrific win in an underrated semi-classic. But after a season of ups and downs (literally), Gesink would love to end with his first big win. His team is certainly up to the challenge, stocked with riders able to place him well for the attacks to come late in the race. His greatest challenge will be overcoming the difficult descents Lombardy’s known for. Often more strategic than the climbs that precede them, Gesink will need to tackle these “downs” with confidence in order to stay in contact with men like Cunego and Gilbert. When it matters, he might not be taken seriously—something he can hopefully exploit. If he becomes the first winner since Hennie Kuiper won’t Michael Boogerd be jealous?
5. Samuel Sanchez is the last of my top favorites for Lombardy. He was present in the finale of Paris-Tours, but couldn’t deliver the goods when it counted. He too might be losing his form following the Vuelta and Worlds, but he’s certainly capable of one last gasp before calling it a season. He’ll need to let the other favorites’ teams do the lion’s share of the work, following wheels and attacks until the final selection has been made.
Granted, there are several riders capable of spoiling the party—Alessandro Ballan, Ivan Basso, and Filippo Pozzato (if he starts)—come to mind, but they just don’t seem on par with the five already mentioned.
And my pick? While I’ll be rooting for Gilbert, I have a feeling Cunego will do just enough to take his 4th win. If he does, expect to see a pink moon over Italy tomorrow night.
Thanks for reading—please share your thoughts below.
1. Damiano Cunego was relatively quiet following his less-than-stellar showing at Worlds in Mendrisio. He took 14th and 9th last weekend at Emilia and Beghelli though, and it looks like he’s been riding within himself, measuring his efforts to save his last bit of September fitness. A 3-time winner here, Cunego certainly has a team capable of getting him where he needs to be for his fourth. His only obstacle comes in the form of Silence-Lotto’s Gilbert-Evans duo. If he can capitalize on the possible tension between the two (they both stated a desire to win), and use his teammate Ballan to his advantage, look for him to move one win closer to tying Fausto Coppi’s record of 5.
2. Philippe Gilbert put his stamp on the fall with an authoritative win in last Sunday’s Paris-Tours. Then he won the Giro del Piemonte, declaring that he’s in the best form of his life. Frankly, it’s hard to argue with him. On Sunday, Gilbert’s biggest asset might just be his teammate, Cadel Evans (if they decide to work together to exploit their numerical advantage). I give the slight edge to Gilbert in one area over the other favorites: if he arrives in a small group, he’s easily the strongest and most savvy sprinter. Should he come through for Belgium, it will cap an impressive late-season run, making him an early favorite for next year’s Spring Classics. When its all said and done, Gilbert could prove to be the most complete Classics rider since Michele Bartoli.
3. I’m starting to wonder if Cadel Evans’ form from the Vuelta and Worlds is starting to wane. He could be saving himself for Saturday, but I can’t help but think he’s a tad below his teammate Gilbert. Regardless, he’s dangerous enough that should he find himself at the front inside the last 50km, he’ll have to be taken seriously. It might be the best thing for Gilbert, having a teammate dangerous enough to make other teams chase could give him a safe ride into the finale. Or Gilbert’s presence could give Evans carte blanche to win his first race in the rainbow jersey.
4. Robert Gesink won a little vindication by winning the Giro dell’Emilia two weeks ago. It was a terrific win in an underrated semi-classic. But after a season of ups and downs (literally), Gesink would love to end with his first big win. His team is certainly up to the challenge, stocked with riders able to place him well for the attacks to come late in the race. His greatest challenge will be overcoming the difficult descents Lombardy’s known for. Often more strategic than the climbs that precede them, Gesink will need to tackle these “downs” with confidence in order to stay in contact with men like Cunego and Gilbert. When it matters, he might not be taken seriously—something he can hopefully exploit. If he becomes the first winner since Hennie Kuiper won’t Michael Boogerd be jealous?
5. Samuel Sanchez is the last of my top favorites for Lombardy. He was present in the finale of Paris-Tours, but couldn’t deliver the goods when it counted. He too might be losing his form following the Vuelta and Worlds, but he’s certainly capable of one last gasp before calling it a season. He’ll need to let the other favorites’ teams do the lion’s share of the work, following wheels and attacks until the final selection has been made.
Granted, there are several riders capable of spoiling the party—Alessandro Ballan, Ivan Basso, and Filippo Pozzato (if he starts)—come to mind, but they just don’t seem on par with the five already mentioned.
And my pick? While I’ll be rooting for Gilbert, I have a feeling Cunego will do just enough to take his 4th win. If he does, expect to see a pink moon over Italy tomorrow night.
Thanks for reading—please share your thoughts below.
Friday, September 18, 2009
Weekend Preview - Vuelta and Isbergues
The Vuelta wraps-up this weekend with a flat 27km time trial around the ancient city of Toledo and the traditional final stage into Madrid.
Friday's Stage 19 was supposed to provide a last chance for GC fireworks with a summit finish in La Granja. Unfortunately, more explosions happened off the back of the lead group than at the front with Robert Gesink succumbing to his injuries from a crash a few days ago--he lost several minutes and now sits in 6th place overall, a whopping 5:30 down.
As for Saturday, look for Alejandro Valverde to hold his lead. The gaps are simply too far to his challengers; he should prove able to keep them at bay. As for the rest of the podium, Cadel Evans could leapfrog Basso and Sanchez to claim 2nd place. If he does, look for the talk to begin of "what could have been" had he not flatted on the stage to Sierra Nevada. As for Sanchez and Basso, neither should be discounted--they've been known to ride a good ITT when it counts.
As for the stage winner, I'm picking Frantisek Rabon to give Columbia-HTC yet another stage win. Greipel should bag them another come Sunday as well.
Moving north, one of my favorite fall races, the Grand Prix d'Isbergues takes place Sunday, with a bevy of French and Benelux teams taking the line. Look for Romain Feillu, Jimmy Casper, Yauheni Hutarovich, and Nick Nuyens to fight it out for the title. Remind me sometime to tell you the story involving me, a hungover mechanic, 7 flat tires, and Geert Van Bondt hanging-on to the side of our team car at about 70kmph--with only two of the car's wheels on asphalt. It happened at Isbergues.
Ah the memories!
What about you? What are you looking forward to this weekend? Any picks?
Share your comments below.
Friday's Stage 19 was supposed to provide a last chance for GC fireworks with a summit finish in La Granja. Unfortunately, more explosions happened off the back of the lead group than at the front with Robert Gesink succumbing to his injuries from a crash a few days ago--he lost several minutes and now sits in 6th place overall, a whopping 5:30 down.
As for Saturday, look for Alejandro Valverde to hold his lead. The gaps are simply too far to his challengers; he should prove able to keep them at bay. As for the rest of the podium, Cadel Evans could leapfrog Basso and Sanchez to claim 2nd place. If he does, look for the talk to begin of "what could have been" had he not flatted on the stage to Sierra Nevada. As for Sanchez and Basso, neither should be discounted--they've been known to ride a good ITT when it counts.
As for the stage winner, I'm picking Frantisek Rabon to give Columbia-HTC yet another stage win. Greipel should bag them another come Sunday as well.
Moving north, one of my favorite fall races, the Grand Prix d'Isbergues takes place Sunday, with a bevy of French and Benelux teams taking the line. Look for Romain Feillu, Jimmy Casper, Yauheni Hutarovich, and Nick Nuyens to fight it out for the title. Remind me sometime to tell you the story involving me, a hungover mechanic, 7 flat tires, and Geert Van Bondt hanging-on to the side of our team car at about 70kmph--with only two of the car's wheels on asphalt. It happened at Isbergues.
Ah the memories!
What about you? What are you looking forward to this weekend? Any picks?
Share your comments below.
Sunday, September 13, 2009
Monday Musette - Vuelta, Waiting for Cadel, Worlds, etc...
Here's our thoughts for Monday:
1. As we predicted, this weekend's stages at the Vuelta have separated the men from the boys--or have they? As it stands after today's Stage 15 we have 6 riders within 1:54 of one another. Of those, Valverde, Sanchez, Evans, and Basso seem the most lilely to take the overall win thanks to their superior time trialing abilities. For my money, look for Evans to unleash some serious revenge on the others for not waiting for him to have his wheel changed following a flat tire in Saturday's stage, thus costing him a minute on GC. Assuming of course that no one gains serious time on the last summit finish.
2. And speaking of Saturday, should they have waited for Cadel? Had he been in the golden jersey, yes. He wasn't though, so they can technically claim they had no obligation. That said, was there really any reason not to have waited? He flatted near the top of a climb; they could have easily coasted for a bit, allowing him to regain contact before descending to Sierra Nevada. Also, they weren't really chasing anyone and there were no contenders chasing from behind. Seems to me that Cadel's reputation for being a bit of a brat might have caught up with him. Regardless, waiting would have been the most sporting gesture. Two wrongs never make a right--unless you're talking about Danilo DiLuca.
3. Here's perhaps the most overwrought Cyclingnews line ever: "As he basks again in Vuelta glory this Sunday eve--a fortnight before the World Championships--Cunego will surely now be starting to hear the dulcet tones of Switzerland's siren worlds song."
4. Paris-Brussels was won by Matthew Goss, a rider with a serious future in the Spring Classics. Romain Feillu took the win Sunday in Fourmies. Too bad the course for Worlds isn't a bit flatter; he might have earned an invitation.
5. And speaking of Worlds, the Italian and German Worlds teams have been announced. No real surprises other than the fact that zee Germans apparently think this year's race is being held in Zolder, Belgium.
6. Did you hear (courtesy of Cycling Quotient) that Garmin will not be renewing the contracts of Mike Friedman, Jason Donald, Kilian Patour and Blake Caldwell? Hans Dekkers (Landbouwkrediet) and Chris Sutton (Sky) are also leaving, along with several riders yet to be confirmed. Just thought you'd like to know.
That's it for today. Hopefully you're enjoying the waning days of summer.
What's on your mind? The Vuleta? Worlds?
Share your comments below.
1. As we predicted, this weekend's stages at the Vuelta have separated the men from the boys--or have they? As it stands after today's Stage 15 we have 6 riders within 1:54 of one another. Of those, Valverde, Sanchez, Evans, and Basso seem the most lilely to take the overall win thanks to their superior time trialing abilities. For my money, look for Evans to unleash some serious revenge on the others for not waiting for him to have his wheel changed following a flat tire in Saturday's stage, thus costing him a minute on GC. Assuming of course that no one gains serious time on the last summit finish.
2. And speaking of Saturday, should they have waited for Cadel? Had he been in the golden jersey, yes. He wasn't though, so they can technically claim they had no obligation. That said, was there really any reason not to have waited? He flatted near the top of a climb; they could have easily coasted for a bit, allowing him to regain contact before descending to Sierra Nevada. Also, they weren't really chasing anyone and there were no contenders chasing from behind. Seems to me that Cadel's reputation for being a bit of a brat might have caught up with him. Regardless, waiting would have been the most sporting gesture. Two wrongs never make a right--unless you're talking about Danilo DiLuca.
3. Here's perhaps the most overwrought Cyclingnews line ever: "As he basks again in Vuelta glory this Sunday eve--a fortnight before the World Championships--Cunego will surely now be starting to hear the dulcet tones of Switzerland's siren worlds song."
4. Paris-Brussels was won by Matthew Goss, a rider with a serious future in the Spring Classics. Romain Feillu took the win Sunday in Fourmies. Too bad the course for Worlds isn't a bit flatter; he might have earned an invitation.
5. And speaking of Worlds, the Italian and German Worlds teams have been announced. No real surprises other than the fact that zee Germans apparently think this year's race is being held in Zolder, Belgium.
6. Did you hear (courtesy of Cycling Quotient) that Garmin will not be renewing the contracts of Mike Friedman, Jason Donald, Kilian Patour and Blake Caldwell? Hans Dekkers (Landbouwkrediet) and Chris Sutton (Sky) are also leaving, along with several riders yet to be confirmed. Just thought you'd like to know.
That's it for today. Hopefully you're enjoying the waning days of summer.
What's on your mind? The Vuleta? Worlds?
Share your comments below.
Wednesday, September 9, 2009
Vuelta d'Espana Midpoint Report
Well, the Vuelta has about reached it’s midpoint, providing us with a good chance to look back over our pre-race predictions. If you recall, we divided this year’s participants into 4 groups according to what their attitudes and goals might be heading into this year’s final Grand Tour. We labeled them Redeemers, Builders, Asserters, and Seekers depending upon whether they are: a)redeeming themselves for an unfulfilling season; b) building form for later in the fall; c) asserting themselves as a legitimate contender in their given area; or d) seeking a new or better contract for next year.
As per usual, we’ve hit the target on several occasions (with others still to be determined), while missing horribly on others. Keeping in mind there’s still 10 days left to race, let’s see how we're doing, beginning with The Redeemers.
We presented Cadel Evans and Alejandro Valverde as both seeking some redemption at this year’s Vuelta. So far, so good as they sit in 2nd and 1st place respectively on GC with only 7 seconds separating them. With several exciting days remaining, the pending dual between these two talents might be one of the season’s finest.
Kim Kirchen came to the Vuelta for redemption as well—too bad he’s already dropped-out due to what have been described as “intestinal problems”. Clearly, this has not been the season Kirchen was banking upon. Maybe the environment at Katusha will give him a fresh start?
While the Redeemers came to the race seeking immediate redemption, several of the Builders hope to find the form they’ll need to get it a bit later on. Case in point: Tom Boonen’s been close to a stage win on several occasions, but he still seems to lack the last-second burst he needs to win. Time will tell if Tommeke’s season will end on a high note, but one can only hope the kilometers he’s logging now will reap rewards in October.
On the other hand, Damiano Cunego, another of our “Builders”, seems to be doing quite nicely. He won the Stage 9 summit finish and currently sits in 7th place overall. If he keeps it up, he’ll be the overwhelming favorite at Worlds and Lombardy--if he doesn't go too deep in Spain. His compatriot Alessandro Ballan has had a quiet Vuelta so far, one can only guess how he’ll be later in the season. Maybe he works for Cunego at Worlds?
And finally, Fabian Cancellara stormed to wins in both Vuelta ITT’s and is the clear favorite to win the World Title on his home turf.
As for the Asserters, Andre Greipel has clearly cemented himself among the world’s finest field sprinters by winning 2 stages and wearing the Gold Jersey for a few days. Furthermore, he’s staying with Columbia-HTC for 2010, thus ensuring that perhaps the strongest challenger to Mark Cavendish’s sprint throne stays home.
The first draft of today’s post mentioned Tyler Farrar as someone who fell short of our forecast. However, the young American finally broke through today, winning Stage 12. It caps a fantastic year for the Garmin rider, one which saw him progress steadily through the ranks of the world’s best field sprinters. Another win or two certainly wouldn’t be a surprise, firmly planting Tyler—along with Greipel—as one of the best in the world.
Samuel Sanchez was hoping to assert himself as perhaps Spain’s second-best Grand Tour rider. He currently sits in 6th place overall, about 1 minute down on the leaders. That’s a bit of a deficit, but it's one Sanchez is clearly capable of overcoming given the right circumstances. The Vuelta’s been won and lost in the final week before; Sanchez could still pull it off.
On the other hand, Andy Schleck’s Vuelta ended on Sunday when he abandoned about 90km into Stage 8 with stomach cramps. I expected more from both him and his brother (who abandoned today to have season-ending knee surgery). That said, Andy won Liege-Bastogne-Liege and finished 2nd in the Tour. A rest is clearly in order following what has been a long, but successful season.
An astute reader asked why I forgot to mention Robert Gesink among the Asserters. Clearly he was right, as young Robert’s currently sitting in 3rd place on GC. With several mountain stages still to come, Gesink could give the Dutch a well-deserved Grand Tour victory.
And finally we have the Seekers, and what a good group they’ve proved to be.
Ivan Basso and Tom Danielson have consistently ridden with the leaders, currently occupying 5th and 4th place on GC. Basso’s been reported to remain with Liquigas next season, while Danielson’s name has been absent from most transfer talk. That said, a solid Vuelta for both might just lead to some greener pastures for these two talented men.
Simon Gerrans has already claimed what he sought, winning Stage 10 into Murcia. He's now won stages in all 3 Grand Tours and will surely command a hefty salary for next season. My money’s on SKY getting his name on the dotted line.
And finally, there’s Chris Horner, a man we mentioned as possibly vying for the win. Unfortunately, Horner’s run of bad luck has continued, with a first week crash taking him from the race before it really even began. It’s clearly been a tough season for Chris.
So let’s see: that’s 7 stages and 6 of the Top-10 on GC for men we mentioned before the race. Not too shabby! Although the others might be sending us some hate mail for jinxing their chances.
What about you? What are your thoughts on the first half of the race? Share your comments below.
As per usual, we’ve hit the target on several occasions (with others still to be determined), while missing horribly on others. Keeping in mind there’s still 10 days left to race, let’s see how we're doing, beginning with The Redeemers.
We presented Cadel Evans and Alejandro Valverde as both seeking some redemption at this year’s Vuelta. So far, so good as they sit in 2nd and 1st place respectively on GC with only 7 seconds separating them. With several exciting days remaining, the pending dual between these two talents might be one of the season’s finest.
Kim Kirchen came to the Vuelta for redemption as well—too bad he’s already dropped-out due to what have been described as “intestinal problems”. Clearly, this has not been the season Kirchen was banking upon. Maybe the environment at Katusha will give him a fresh start?
While the Redeemers came to the race seeking immediate redemption, several of the Builders hope to find the form they’ll need to get it a bit later on. Case in point: Tom Boonen’s been close to a stage win on several occasions, but he still seems to lack the last-second burst he needs to win. Time will tell if Tommeke’s season will end on a high note, but one can only hope the kilometers he’s logging now will reap rewards in October.
On the other hand, Damiano Cunego, another of our “Builders”, seems to be doing quite nicely. He won the Stage 9 summit finish and currently sits in 7th place overall. If he keeps it up, he’ll be the overwhelming favorite at Worlds and Lombardy--if he doesn't go too deep in Spain. His compatriot Alessandro Ballan has had a quiet Vuelta so far, one can only guess how he’ll be later in the season. Maybe he works for Cunego at Worlds?
And finally, Fabian Cancellara stormed to wins in both Vuelta ITT’s and is the clear favorite to win the World Title on his home turf.
As for the Asserters, Andre Greipel has clearly cemented himself among the world’s finest field sprinters by winning 2 stages and wearing the Gold Jersey for a few days. Furthermore, he’s staying with Columbia-HTC for 2010, thus ensuring that perhaps the strongest challenger to Mark Cavendish’s sprint throne stays home.
The first draft of today’s post mentioned Tyler Farrar as someone who fell short of our forecast. However, the young American finally broke through today, winning Stage 12. It caps a fantastic year for the Garmin rider, one which saw him progress steadily through the ranks of the world’s best field sprinters. Another win or two certainly wouldn’t be a surprise, firmly planting Tyler—along with Greipel—as one of the best in the world.
Samuel Sanchez was hoping to assert himself as perhaps Spain’s second-best Grand Tour rider. He currently sits in 6th place overall, about 1 minute down on the leaders. That’s a bit of a deficit, but it's one Sanchez is clearly capable of overcoming given the right circumstances. The Vuelta’s been won and lost in the final week before; Sanchez could still pull it off.
On the other hand, Andy Schleck’s Vuelta ended on Sunday when he abandoned about 90km into Stage 8 with stomach cramps. I expected more from both him and his brother (who abandoned today to have season-ending knee surgery). That said, Andy won Liege-Bastogne-Liege and finished 2nd in the Tour. A rest is clearly in order following what has been a long, but successful season.
An astute reader asked why I forgot to mention Robert Gesink among the Asserters. Clearly he was right, as young Robert’s currently sitting in 3rd place on GC. With several mountain stages still to come, Gesink could give the Dutch a well-deserved Grand Tour victory.
And finally we have the Seekers, and what a good group they’ve proved to be.
Ivan Basso and Tom Danielson have consistently ridden with the leaders, currently occupying 5th and 4th place on GC. Basso’s been reported to remain with Liquigas next season, while Danielson’s name has been absent from most transfer talk. That said, a solid Vuelta for both might just lead to some greener pastures for these two talented men.
Simon Gerrans has already claimed what he sought, winning Stage 10 into Murcia. He's now won stages in all 3 Grand Tours and will surely command a hefty salary for next season. My money’s on SKY getting his name on the dotted line.
And finally, there’s Chris Horner, a man we mentioned as possibly vying for the win. Unfortunately, Horner’s run of bad luck has continued, with a first week crash taking him from the race before it really even began. It’s clearly been a tough season for Chris.
So let’s see: that’s 7 stages and 6 of the Top-10 on GC for men we mentioned before the race. Not too shabby! Although the others might be sending us some hate mail for jinxing their chances.
What about you? What are your thoughts on the first half of the race? Share your comments below.
Friday, August 28, 2009
Vuelta d'Espana Preview
It’s back to school time, so that means it’s time for the annual 3-week party known as the Vuelta d'Espana. Seriously, I remember hearing of fights among team personnel over who would get to work the race—it’s that much fun.
For the riders though, it’s a bit of a different story, especially for those coming to the race with ambitions of one sort of another. Looking over the latest start list in fact, it’s pretty easy to sort the riders into categories based upon their expectations and hopes for this year's race. Let's take a stab at it.
Redeemers
The Redeemers come to the race hoping to salvage their seasons. Maybe they were injured and missed a big race or two, maybe they were suspended and are trying to return to their former glory days, or maybe they just spent the season searching for form that never came. Regardless, these men come to this year’s Vuelta hoping to erase the past with a win in the year’s final Grand Tour.
1. Cadel Evans tops the list of Redeemers this year. An utter disappointment at the Tour de France (a race he was expected by many to win), Cadel comes to the start in Rotterdam looking to win his first Grand Tour. Silence-Lotto has given him a solid team capable of getting him where he needs to be for the victory, but it will be all up to Cadel to keep his head in the race against some fierce competition. When he’s on his game, he’s a force to be reckoned with; but when he’s not he races with the temperament of a pubescent teenager. He better take advantage now, in what could be his last real shot for Grand Tour glory.
2. Alejandro Valverde makes his 2009 Grand Tour debut at a race he would most certainly love to win for his home fans. He wasn’t allowed to start the Tour this year due to his Italian racing ban, and his team appears to be eager to sign one of his fiercest rivals, fellow Spaniard Alberto Contador. A win by Valverde might convince his management that Albie’s not worth the extra millions, a poor outing might just put the nail in his Valverde's Grand Tour coffin. For my money, I’m hoping Valverde makes this his last attempt at Grand Tour greatness; he’s much more suited to the Ardennes Classics and shorter stages races. Can you imagine how he would do were he to focus exclusively on those?
3. Remember last year when Kim Kirchen won Flèche-Wallone and then spent a week or two making everyone think he could win the Tour? Seems long ago, doesn’t it? Yes, he was injured for the better part of the season, but he’s better now and has enough racing in his legs to warrant consideration here. His situation isn’t nearly as critical as Evans’ or Valverde’s, but he certainly could use a good result to remind everyone of just how talented he is—or was.
4. And of course, one cannot forget Alexandre Vinokourov, whose need for redemption needs no explanation.
Other candidates: Philipe Gilbert, FDJ, Euskaltel-Euskadi
Builders
The Builders come to the Vuelta hoping to build form for the season’s final month, namely the World Championships, Paris-Tours, and the Tour of Lombardy. Most of these riders can’t logically claim to have ambitions for the GC; they’ll be looking for stage wins and opportunities to test their legs against their peers. In many cases, these men are also seeking redemption, using the Vuelta to help them find it in the season’s waning moments. A bit risky perhaps, but a stage win or two along the way never hurts, no?
1. Tom Boonen might also be considered a Redeemer in the sense that his Tour de France was an entirely lackluster affair. He started the season well with his usually impressive Classics campaign. Then the wheels fell-off when Tommeke tested positive—again—for cocaine—again. His team fought for and won the right to bring Tom to the Tour where he spent more time flatting and falling than sprinting and winning. He then announced he would ride the Vuelta in the hopes of reminding everyone that he’s one of the top sprinters in the world--and to gain some form for World’s. If can build the fitness he needs for a big win later, while winning several stages, he might just kill two birds with one stone. If he can’t, his fans will spend the off-season wondering what could have been instead of celebrating what was.
2. Like Boonen, Damiano Cunego comes to Spain hoping to build the form he needs to make everyone forget what’s been a pretty disappointing season so far. He failed to score a Spring Classic win and was nowhere close to being a factor in his beloved Giro. Perhaps more so than Boonen, the Worlds parcours actually suits Cunego’s strengths though, and now without Danilo “It’s A Conspiracy” Di Luca in the picture, he might have a team entirely dedicated to helping him get it. Cunego needs to ride smart, treating the Vuelta strictly as training, lest he risk doing too much too soon. Sure, he can go for a stage win now and again, but he cannot do so if it means burning too many of the matches he’ll need for success at Mendrisio and Lombardy.
3. Alessandro Ballan would like to defend his World Title; unfortunately, he might find the course and the competition a bit too much for his talents. That said, there’s always Paris-Tours, a race much more suited to his skills. The Vuelta will help him get where he needs to be. Fabian Cancellara would also like another World Title in the ITT. He’s racing for his home fans at Mendrisio, and the Vuelta will provide just the training he needs to ensure they don’t go home disappointed.
Others: Bjorne Leukemans, Lars Boom, Oscar Freire, and Carlos Barredo
Asserters
The Asserters come the Vuelta hoping to prove that they warrant the hype they've been given at point or another. They could be a young sprinter hoping to show everyone they deserve to be considered one of the World’s fastest, or an all-round rider looking to make the jump from weeklong race contender to Grand Tour favorite. To them, the Vuelta is a chance to assert themselves as deserving a place at the top of the sport.
1. Andre Griepel was pretty disappointed to have been left-off his team’s roster for the Tour. He comes to the Vuelta hoping to re-assert himself as one of the world’s fastest sprinters. In doing so, he might simultaneously build some form for a race like Paris-Tours and earn himself a fat new contract for 2010—either with Columbia or someone else.
2. Along with Edvald Boassen Hagen, Tyler Farrar was perhaps August’s most successful rider. He comes to the Vuelta looking for a Grand Tour breakthrough. He’s already beaten just about everyone he’ll be competing against in Spain, now he just needs everything to fall into place. His confidence is brimming, his team is dedicated to helping him win, and all that’s left is for him to make it happen. I think he will—several times.
3. Samuel Sanchez comes to the race wearing race number 1. His only task is to end the 3-week race at the same place on GC. He has a team that will certainly be motivated to help him win their home tour and draw attention from the scandal surrounding them after July’s Tour. Frankly though, I don’t see Sanchez as a rider capable of winning a Grand Tour. Like Valverde, he might be suited to hillier classics and weeklong stages races of the Paris-Nice/Pais Vasco sort. Should he prove me wrong though, he will have convincingly asserted himself as one of the world’s finest.
4. And finally, there’s Andy Schleck. Does Andy need to assert himself as one of the world’s best Grand Tour riders? Absolutely not. That said, he’s finished on the podium in both the Giro and the Tour now, and a win at the Vuelta would assert his status as perhaps the greatest threat to Alberto Contador in the years to come. If I were Andy, I would love to go into the off-season with a Grand Tour win under my belt, thus fueling the fire for an impending re-match with Contador in next year’s Tour.
Other Candidates: Roman Kreuziger, Rinaldo Nocentini, Ignatas Konovalovas, Allan Davis, and Fuji-Servetto
Seekers
To put it simply, the Seekers come to the race looking for one thing: a contract for next year. September marks the beginning of the official transfer period as well as the start of the stagiaire audition season. A good ride in Spain can make the difference between a good contract and a bad one, or in extreme cases, no contract at all.
1. Ivan Basso needs the Vuelta to remind everyone—and his potential suitors—that he still has what it takes to win a Grand Tour. His return at the Giro was positive, but it did little to strike fear into the hearts of his rivals. A win or solid placing in Spain might convince a team that Basso’s best days are not behind him. A bad race, and Team Radio Shack might be able to change a digit or two in their latest offer.
2. Simon Gerrans will certainly have offers for next season; the Vuelta will just give him a opportunity to make them as high as he wants them to be. A stage win in Spain and he’ll have bagged one in all 3 Grand Tours—in 2 seasons, no less. The race might also give him a chance to show what he can do on GC; his team contains no threat to his leadership should he choose to go that route.
3. As we mentioned earlier, Tom Danielson finally looks to be worthy of at least some of the hype surrounding him during his Pro Tour career. A good Vuelta will solidify his place on someone’s team next season—maybe even Garmin. A bad race, and he could be looking for work back home on a team hoping to make him their leader for Redlands. (Now I'm sounding like Bobby Julich.)
4. If I were to make a list of Indefensible Claims for this year’s Vuelta, I’d pick Chris Horner to win. Like Gerrans, he’ll have no problem finding a team next year—especially if he decides to follow Lance. But Chris is a wily veteran, and his inclusion on Astana’s Vuelta team shows me that he’s willing to go it alone to prove to anyone watching that he’s got talent. With Alain Gallopin (the man responsible for bringing Chris to FDJ way back when) driving the car, Chris could pull-off the result of his life, giving him the right to demand more dinero from Team Lance or elsewhere.
Other Seekers: Kurt-Asle Arvesen, Matti Breschel, Michael Albasini, Xacobeo Galicia, and Contempolis-AMPO
That said, here are my predictions for this year’s Vuelta Top-5:
1. Andy Schleck
2. Roman Kreuziger
3. Cadel Evans
4. Alejandro Valverde
5. Chris Horner
What about you? Who are your Redeemers, Builders, Asserters, and Seekers for this year’s race? Share your comments below.
For the riders though, it’s a bit of a different story, especially for those coming to the race with ambitions of one sort of another. Looking over the latest start list in fact, it’s pretty easy to sort the riders into categories based upon their expectations and hopes for this year's race. Let's take a stab at it.
Redeemers
The Redeemers come to the race hoping to salvage their seasons. Maybe they were injured and missed a big race or two, maybe they were suspended and are trying to return to their former glory days, or maybe they just spent the season searching for form that never came. Regardless, these men come to this year’s Vuelta hoping to erase the past with a win in the year’s final Grand Tour.
1. Cadel Evans tops the list of Redeemers this year. An utter disappointment at the Tour de France (a race he was expected by many to win), Cadel comes to the start in Rotterdam looking to win his first Grand Tour. Silence-Lotto has given him a solid team capable of getting him where he needs to be for the victory, but it will be all up to Cadel to keep his head in the race against some fierce competition. When he’s on his game, he’s a force to be reckoned with; but when he’s not he races with the temperament of a pubescent teenager. He better take advantage now, in what could be his last real shot for Grand Tour glory.
2. Alejandro Valverde makes his 2009 Grand Tour debut at a race he would most certainly love to win for his home fans. He wasn’t allowed to start the Tour this year due to his Italian racing ban, and his team appears to be eager to sign one of his fiercest rivals, fellow Spaniard Alberto Contador. A win by Valverde might convince his management that Albie’s not worth the extra millions, a poor outing might just put the nail in his Valverde's Grand Tour coffin. For my money, I’m hoping Valverde makes this his last attempt at Grand Tour greatness; he’s much more suited to the Ardennes Classics and shorter stages races. Can you imagine how he would do were he to focus exclusively on those?
3. Remember last year when Kim Kirchen won Flèche-Wallone and then spent a week or two making everyone think he could win the Tour? Seems long ago, doesn’t it? Yes, he was injured for the better part of the season, but he’s better now and has enough racing in his legs to warrant consideration here. His situation isn’t nearly as critical as Evans’ or Valverde’s, but he certainly could use a good result to remind everyone of just how talented he is—or was.
4. And of course, one cannot forget Alexandre Vinokourov, whose need for redemption needs no explanation.
Other candidates: Philipe Gilbert, FDJ, Euskaltel-Euskadi
Builders
The Builders come to the Vuelta hoping to build form for the season’s final month, namely the World Championships, Paris-Tours, and the Tour of Lombardy. Most of these riders can’t logically claim to have ambitions for the GC; they’ll be looking for stage wins and opportunities to test their legs against their peers. In many cases, these men are also seeking redemption, using the Vuelta to help them find it in the season’s waning moments. A bit risky perhaps, but a stage win or two along the way never hurts, no?
1. Tom Boonen might also be considered a Redeemer in the sense that his Tour de France was an entirely lackluster affair. He started the season well with his usually impressive Classics campaign. Then the wheels fell-off when Tommeke tested positive—again—for cocaine—again. His team fought for and won the right to bring Tom to the Tour where he spent more time flatting and falling than sprinting and winning. He then announced he would ride the Vuelta in the hopes of reminding everyone that he’s one of the top sprinters in the world--and to gain some form for World’s. If can build the fitness he needs for a big win later, while winning several stages, he might just kill two birds with one stone. If he can’t, his fans will spend the off-season wondering what could have been instead of celebrating what was.
2. Like Boonen, Damiano Cunego comes to Spain hoping to build the form he needs to make everyone forget what’s been a pretty disappointing season so far. He failed to score a Spring Classic win and was nowhere close to being a factor in his beloved Giro. Perhaps more so than Boonen, the Worlds parcours actually suits Cunego’s strengths though, and now without Danilo “It’s A Conspiracy” Di Luca in the picture, he might have a team entirely dedicated to helping him get it. Cunego needs to ride smart, treating the Vuelta strictly as training, lest he risk doing too much too soon. Sure, he can go for a stage win now and again, but he cannot do so if it means burning too many of the matches he’ll need for success at Mendrisio and Lombardy.
3. Alessandro Ballan would like to defend his World Title; unfortunately, he might find the course and the competition a bit too much for his talents. That said, there’s always Paris-Tours, a race much more suited to his skills. The Vuelta will help him get where he needs to be. Fabian Cancellara would also like another World Title in the ITT. He’s racing for his home fans at Mendrisio, and the Vuelta will provide just the training he needs to ensure they don’t go home disappointed.
Others: Bjorne Leukemans, Lars Boom, Oscar Freire, and Carlos Barredo
Asserters
The Asserters come the Vuelta hoping to prove that they warrant the hype they've been given at point or another. They could be a young sprinter hoping to show everyone they deserve to be considered one of the World’s fastest, or an all-round rider looking to make the jump from weeklong race contender to Grand Tour favorite. To them, the Vuelta is a chance to assert themselves as deserving a place at the top of the sport.
1. Andre Griepel was pretty disappointed to have been left-off his team’s roster for the Tour. He comes to the Vuelta hoping to re-assert himself as one of the world’s fastest sprinters. In doing so, he might simultaneously build some form for a race like Paris-Tours and earn himself a fat new contract for 2010—either with Columbia or someone else.
2. Along with Edvald Boassen Hagen, Tyler Farrar was perhaps August’s most successful rider. He comes to the Vuelta looking for a Grand Tour breakthrough. He’s already beaten just about everyone he’ll be competing against in Spain, now he just needs everything to fall into place. His confidence is brimming, his team is dedicated to helping him win, and all that’s left is for him to make it happen. I think he will—several times.
3. Samuel Sanchez comes to the race wearing race number 1. His only task is to end the 3-week race at the same place on GC. He has a team that will certainly be motivated to help him win their home tour and draw attention from the scandal surrounding them after July’s Tour. Frankly though, I don’t see Sanchez as a rider capable of winning a Grand Tour. Like Valverde, he might be suited to hillier classics and weeklong stages races of the Paris-Nice/Pais Vasco sort. Should he prove me wrong though, he will have convincingly asserted himself as one of the world’s finest.
4. And finally, there’s Andy Schleck. Does Andy need to assert himself as one of the world’s best Grand Tour riders? Absolutely not. That said, he’s finished on the podium in both the Giro and the Tour now, and a win at the Vuelta would assert his status as perhaps the greatest threat to Alberto Contador in the years to come. If I were Andy, I would love to go into the off-season with a Grand Tour win under my belt, thus fueling the fire for an impending re-match with Contador in next year’s Tour.
Other Candidates: Roman Kreuziger, Rinaldo Nocentini, Ignatas Konovalovas, Allan Davis, and Fuji-Servetto
Seekers
To put it simply, the Seekers come to the race looking for one thing: a contract for next year. September marks the beginning of the official transfer period as well as the start of the stagiaire audition season. A good ride in Spain can make the difference between a good contract and a bad one, or in extreme cases, no contract at all.
1. Ivan Basso needs the Vuelta to remind everyone—and his potential suitors—that he still has what it takes to win a Grand Tour. His return at the Giro was positive, but it did little to strike fear into the hearts of his rivals. A win or solid placing in Spain might convince a team that Basso’s best days are not behind him. A bad race, and Team Radio Shack might be able to change a digit or two in their latest offer.
2. Simon Gerrans will certainly have offers for next season; the Vuelta will just give him a opportunity to make them as high as he wants them to be. A stage win in Spain and he’ll have bagged one in all 3 Grand Tours—in 2 seasons, no less. The race might also give him a chance to show what he can do on GC; his team contains no threat to his leadership should he choose to go that route.
3. As we mentioned earlier, Tom Danielson finally looks to be worthy of at least some of the hype surrounding him during his Pro Tour career. A good Vuelta will solidify his place on someone’s team next season—maybe even Garmin. A bad race, and he could be looking for work back home on a team hoping to make him their leader for Redlands. (Now I'm sounding like Bobby Julich.)
4. If I were to make a list of Indefensible Claims for this year’s Vuelta, I’d pick Chris Horner to win. Like Gerrans, he’ll have no problem finding a team next year—especially if he decides to follow Lance. But Chris is a wily veteran, and his inclusion on Astana’s Vuelta team shows me that he’s willing to go it alone to prove to anyone watching that he’s got talent. With Alain Gallopin (the man responsible for bringing Chris to FDJ way back when) driving the car, Chris could pull-off the result of his life, giving him the right to demand more dinero from Team Lance or elsewhere.
Other Seekers: Kurt-Asle Arvesen, Matti Breschel, Michael Albasini, Xacobeo Galicia, and Contempolis-AMPO
That said, here are my predictions for this year’s Vuelta Top-5:
1. Andy Schleck
2. Roman Kreuziger
3. Cadel Evans
4. Alejandro Valverde
5. Chris Horner
What about you? Who are your Redeemers, Builders, Asserters, and Seekers for this year’s race? Share your comments below.
Tuesday, July 21, 2009
Tour de France - Stage 16 Wrap-up
What an exciting finish to today’s stage! Congratulations to Mikel Astarloza for winning Euskaltel it’s first stage since Iban Mayo won on Alpe D’Huez in 2003.
Big loser today: Cadel Evans. Does anyone else think Silence should start riding for Jurgen Van Den Broeck? The former World Junior Time Trial Champion has finished 7th in the Giro and currently sits in 22nd overall, 11:11 behind the yellow jersey. However, the more significant gap is the less 4 minutes he sits behind Cadel Evans. Is it fair to expect Silence to completely abandon Evans’ hopes in exchange for his teammate’s chances?
Probably not, but the 26 year-old’s moving in the more favorable direction right now, and he’s certainly ridden a more aggressive race up to this point (albeit in support of Cadel). Could Silence pander to its Belgian sponsor and fan base by positioning Van Den Broeck for a stage win or higher GC position at the expense of Evans? At the very least, expect to see Van Den Broeck's leash loosened even more over the next few days, especially tomorrow and Saturday. At some point it will be time for Silence to see if the kid’s for real.
For tomorrow, expect more from Saxo Bank as it tries to create one last shake-up before Thursday’s time trial. Garmin would do well to try and gain some time as well, hopefully setting-up Wiggins for further gains around Lake Annecy.
In closing, our thoughts are with Jens Voigt. His crash coming-off the Petit-Saint-Bernard is perhaps the scariest I’ve seen since Joseba Beloki. At the end of the coverage today, it was said that there’s no threat of serious injury, but it’s safe to say he faces some tough days ahead.
What about you? Any thoughts on today's action?
Share your comments below.
Big loser today: Cadel Evans. Does anyone else think Silence should start riding for Jurgen Van Den Broeck? The former World Junior Time Trial Champion has finished 7th in the Giro and currently sits in 22nd overall, 11:11 behind the yellow jersey. However, the more significant gap is the less 4 minutes he sits behind Cadel Evans. Is it fair to expect Silence to completely abandon Evans’ hopes in exchange for his teammate’s chances?
Probably not, but the 26 year-old’s moving in the more favorable direction right now, and he’s certainly ridden a more aggressive race up to this point (albeit in support of Cadel). Could Silence pander to its Belgian sponsor and fan base by positioning Van Den Broeck for a stage win or higher GC position at the expense of Evans? At the very least, expect to see Van Den Broeck's leash loosened even more over the next few days, especially tomorrow and Saturday. At some point it will be time for Silence to see if the kid’s for real.
For tomorrow, expect more from Saxo Bank as it tries to create one last shake-up before Thursday’s time trial. Garmin would do well to try and gain some time as well, hopefully setting-up Wiggins for further gains around Lake Annecy.
In closing, our thoughts are with Jens Voigt. His crash coming-off the Petit-Saint-Bernard is perhaps the scariest I’ve seen since Joseba Beloki. At the end of the coverage today, it was said that there’s no threat of serious injury, but it’s safe to say he faces some tough days ahead.
What about you? Any thoughts on today's action?
Share your comments below.
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