Here's the fourth and final installment of Pavé's 2010 Tour de France Preview. In case you missed a day, click the link to read Part 1, Part 2, and Part 3. Feel free to share your comments below.
Sky Professional Cycling Team
Halfway through its first season of existence, Team Sky has already achieved one of its goals just by earning an invitation to the Tour de France. That said, despite the presence of last year’s fourth-place finisher, Bradley Wiggins, Sky might find success in the race itself a bit harder to find. Why? Because you can’t buy chemistry.
Starting from scratch this past summer, Team Sky brought together riders from 15 different programs to form its roster for 2010. It looks easy on paper, but building a strong and successful team takes more than just plucking the best riders and putting them in a race together—it takes time for the riders and staff to develop the chemistry that comes after years of racing and working with one another.
This is why Sky enjoyed so much success early in the season, but less so as the year progressed. The team won several races at a time when everyone was busy reacquainting themselves with their teams. But as the established formations quickly settled into patterns and roles established in prior years, Team Sky was still feeling-itself-out so to speak, something that might have led to a decline in results. Of course, an injury to one of the team’s best riders didn’t help.
That said, I think tempered expectations might be best for the team in its first year at the Tour de France. A stage win or two is realistic, but a dominating performance—and more importantly, a top-5 ride for Wiggo—might be a bit out of reach.
Wiggins could struggle during a difficult final week in a Tour where time trialing takes a backseat to major climbing. He’ll perform well on the pavé, but when the road turns uphill, I wonder which of his teammates will be the main man to guide him through the mountains. All in all, expect at least stage win from Team Sky—especially if Edvald Boasson Hagen returns to his 2009 form.
Man of the Hour: Wiggins comes to the Tour hoping to improve upon his fourth-place ride last year. Wiggins was one of the true all-rounders of last year’s race, a rider able to climb and time trial with the favorites. That said, he won’t have the element of surprise working in his favor this year; he’ll be racing as a contender and will be given less of a leash as a result.
On the Hot Seat: Edvald Boasson Hagen must be feeling some pressure to deliver on the tremendous potential he displayed last season. After missing much of the spring with an injury, he seems back on track following a win in the final stage of the Dauphiné. A talented time trialist, Hagen could take a win as early as Saturday’s Prologue.
Up-and-Comer: Geraint Thomas scored four consecutive top-10 finishes in the first four stages of the Dauphiné before winning the British road championship. Now he gets to show-off his new jersey in the Tour.
Just Happy to Be There: Michael Barry’s been a professional since 1999 and is riding his first Tour de France this season. “Happy to There” is a bit of an understatement.
Feeling Left Out: Kurt Asle Arvesen has ridden 5 Tours and has one stage win on his résumé. Dario Cioni is a talented climber and an experienced grand tour rider as well. Matthew Hayman knows how to control a peloton when gaps need to be closed and breaks need catching. For a team with GC aspirations, I can’t help but feel that these men would have been better choices than some of the riders selected.
Team HTC-Columbia
At some point, possibly as early as this year’s Team Tour de France, HTC-Columbia might have to decide whether it’s a sprint team or a GC team. Last year, the question had an easy answer: ride for Cavendish and let the young GC riders get a taste for the Tour. This year however, with both Michael Rogers and Tony Martin looking as if they have serious chances for top-10 results, HTC might be forced to reconsider its strategy.
First, let’s talk about Cavendish. Equalling last year’s six stage wins looks to be a tall order this year. For one, he’s lacking a bit of the fitness and speed he possessed last season at this time. Dental issues, poor form, and crashes have derailed his chances to find a rhythm—his wins have been few and far between. Worse still, Cavendish now seems to have attracted the ire of the majority of the peloton following his antics at the end of Stage 4 of the Tour de Suisse. Irregular sprinting, spitting, and a generally bad attitude will ensure that Cavendish gets no favors this year. Add to this the continued progression of Tyler Farrar and the rejuvenation of Thor Hushovd, and Cavendish might have more competition than he was used to in 2009—especially with Garmin now able to provide a lead-out much more on par with HTC’s. Overall, while a shut-out might be a bit unrealistic, I think 2-3 stage wins for Cavendish is a better estimate.
On the GC side of things, Michael Rogers and Tony Martin lead HTC’s charge, supported by super-domestique Maxime Monfort and climber Konstantin Siutsou. Rogers has been enjoying quite a renaissance after several seasons that fell short of expectations. As for Martin, he held the white jersey for a while in last year’s race before suffering too much in the mountains. The same happened in this year’s Tour de Suisse, where Martin held the yellow jersey before losing it on the big stage to La Punt. Rogers is clearly the more polished of the two right now, but Martin might be more talented. I’m eager to see how both perform—and to what degree HTC saves them in the first week.
In the end, the best thing HTC-Columbia has going for it is depth. If things go pear-shaped for Cavendish and/or the GC men, there are plenty of riders capable of picking-up the slack and taking some stage wins. While we might not see a repeat of last year’s Tour de Cavendish, with this team, another impressive performance is certainly possible.
Man of the Hour: Michael Rogers has been enjoying a terrific season with wins in the Ruta del Sol and Tour of California as well as podium spots in the Criterium International and Tour of Romandie. The Tour de France will be the Australian’s first grand tour of 2010—will the results continue?
On the Hot Seat: I feel like I wrote this last year, but Mark Cavendish needs to let his legs do more of the talking. After his two-fingered salute at the Tour of Romandie, there was a distinct sense at the Tour of California that team management had reprimanded the Manxman, given the subdued nature of his interaction with the media. After his Swiss antics, it can be assumed another lecture was delivered. But was it heard?
Up-and-Comer: Tony Martin’s still only 25—he has at least another year or two before he’s at his peak. One of the world’s finest time trialists, Martin needs to show some progression in the high mountains before we can begin heralding him as a true grand tour contender. I expected more from him in the Tour de Suisse, a race he was leading until the serious climbing began. This year’s Tour will be a terrific test of just how far the German has come.
Just Happy to Be There: Adam Hansen squeaked into HTC’s Tour selection with a win in Holland’s Ster Elektrotoer. It’s been a banner year for Australians, look for Hansen in the early stages of Cavendish’s lead-outs as well as some breakaways later in the race.
Feeling Left Out: At this point, Andre Greipel might as well list himself on eBay. His Tour snub was a clear reflection of HTC’s intentions not to make a strong effort to sign the German this off-season. Yes, he underwhelmed at the Giro—winning only one stage—but he hasn’t exactly been overshadowed by Cavendish either. Look-out 2011!
Team Katusha
It’s not good when your team’s GC rider is Vladimir Karpets—but that’s okay with Katusha, a team built more for stage wins than overall success.
Sergei Ivanov, Alexandr Kolobnev, and Jose Joaquin Rodriguez are Katusha’s best riders—look for them to come to the fore as early as Monday—Ivanov and Kolobnev impressed in the Ardennes races and could certainly win Stage 2 on similar terrain. Even though Rodriguez finished seventh in last year’s Vuelta, he is a more likely candidate for stage wins in France.
On flatter days, the team will back Robbie McEwen in field sprints, hoping the aging Australian can find a bit of the speed that saw him win 12 Tour stages between 2002 and 2007. At 38, McEwen’s another sprinter whose fastest days might have passed—but anything’s possible. Robbie should be especially motivated to take Stage 1 in Brussels as it’s not too far from Brakel, his adopted home. Do you think McEwen and Petacchi can give us a little flashback to 2003?
As for Karpets, he finished 13th in the 2004 Tour de France, taking the white jersey as Best Young Rider for Caisse d’Epargne. Last year the Russian ended the Tour in 12th-place as Katusha’s best-placed rider. This year, look for Karpets to follow the favorites in the mountains, using his above-average time trialing skills to pick-up places here and there. At best, Karpets can hope to beat-out Rabobank’s Denis Menchov for the best GC placing by a Russian. But if he were a legitimate contender for the podium, we would have seen more from him by now.
Man of the Hour: Alexandr Kolobnev was perhaps the most aggressive rider of the Ardennes classics, failing to take the big win he so valiantly sought. A Tour stage would be nice consolation for the new Russian champion.
On the Hot Seat: McEwen might be a candidate, but he’s at a point when less seems to be expected from him. On the other hand, Vladimir Karpets is 29 and in the “prime” of his career. If he fails to produce a top-10 result in France this year, it might be time to re-evaluate his goals, perhaps shifting focus from grand tours to shorter stage races (in which he’s performed well in the past).
Up-and-Comer: Katusha’s bringing a relatively veteran squad to this year’s Tour de France—except for 23-year-old Alexandre Pliuschkin. The 3-time defending Moldavian national champion, this will be the youngster’s first chance to show-off his nation’s colors in the Tour. With an impressive résumé including medals in various junior and U23 world championship events and a win in the 2007 U23 Tour of Flanders, it will be interesting to see how he fares in his first Tour. Is Pliuschkin the next Roman Kreuziger?
Just Happy to Be There: Robbie McEwen missed last year’s Tour with an injury—he’s got to be thrilled just to be riding this year.
Feeling Left Out: He certainly wasn’t “left out”, but let’s keep Kim Kirchen in our thoughts anyway.
Team Milram
I have a good feeling about Milram in this year’s Tour de France—and by that I mean they might win a stage (it would be their first). Niki Terpstra and Christian Knees won their national championships (Holland and Germany), perhaps giving the team a bit of confidence heading into the Tour.
Looking down the rest of the team’s roster, it’s not an all together a bad picture. Gerald Ciolek’s the team’s sprinter—he seems to struggle against the world’s fastest guys, but gets closer and closer each year. Knees, Terpstra, and Fabian Wegmann can handle themselves in breakaways—Wegmann has just missed on more than one occasion. And last but not least, Linus Gerdemann carries the team’s GC hopes. He’s certainly not the best rider to carry the team’s entire burden, but he’s more than serviceable and could certainly slip into the yellow jersey should he find the right breakaway during the first week.
Man of the Hour: Linus Gerdemann has been Germany’s GC-hopeful since he took a stage and the yellow jersey for a few days in the 2007 Tour. But looking over his résumé, there’s nothing to indicate that he’s a man for the grand tours. He finished 16th in this year’s Giro; but for a rider who always seems to suffer from at least catastrophic day, stage wins might be a more realistic goal.
On the Hot Seat: General Manager Gerry Van Gerwen has not yet received a commitment from Milram for next season. With several Pro Tour squads searching for title sponsors, now is not a good time to be a mediocre squad with a market severely damaged by the sport’s various doping scandals. Van Gerwen’s men need immediate results if he is to have any chance of securing his program’s future.
Up-and-Comer: Here’s the thing about Gerald Ciolek that many people forget—he’s only 23! He seems to be a man of near-misses in the Tour, but with time to develop, a win should arrive at some point. I could also see Ciolek becoming more of an all-rounder at some point in his career, forgoing field sprints for small groups and breakaways.
Just Happy to Be There: Roger Kluge made a name for himself on the track before switching primarily to the road. He makes his Tour debut in his first season in the Pro Tour. If he can avoid being overwhelmed by the Tour circus, he’ll be a valuable asset to Ciolek on flatter days.
Feeling Left Out: Markus Fothen made a name for himself in the 2006 Tour by wearing the white jersey for about two weeks. After two seasons of decent results, the 28-year-old seems to have disappeared from the map. This year, he’s on the outside looking in at Milram’s Tour de France squad.
Team Radio Shack
They say that sometimes in cycling, the best rider doesn’t always win. In the case of Team Radio Shack and the 2010 Tour de France, it might ultimately be said that the best team doesn’t always either—especially when they don’t have the best rider.
From top to bottom, Radio Shack brings the most experienced and talented squad to Rotterdam led by none other than 7-time Tour-winner, Lance Armstrong. In what he claims will be his last Tour de France, Lance has assembled the finest riders, staff, management, and material the sport might have ever seen. But will it be enough to overcome the Texan’s age and the riders looking to exploit it? I don’t think so.
Don’t get me wrong: I’m not trying to be pessimistic, nor am I taking advantage of an opportunity to be a Lance-hater. I just don’t think he has enough left in the tank to overcome the likes of Alberto Contador, Andy Schleck, and several of the other contenders in this year’s race.
But that shouldn’t stop us from admiring the team Armstrong has assembled—it’s quite impressive. Andreas Kloden has two second-places and sixth-place on his Tour record, while Levi Leipheimer has four top-10 finishes including third-place in 2007. Either man would be a team leader on another squad. Then there’s Janez Brajkovic, a real star in the making who won this year’s Dauphiné in a fashion eerily similar to how Lance and Contador won their major stage races. Chris Horner’s also in the Tour de France this year following his omission in 2009, while Yaroslav Popovych, a veteran from Lance’s late Tour victories and a rider who once finished third in the Giro, rides as well.
Dmitri Murayev, Sergio Paulinho, and Greg Rast round out the squad, three talented domestiques who will be expected to drive the peloton in the service of their more illustrious teammates.
But never forget, this is primarily Lance’s team—even if Johan Bruyneel directs it. While a win might be out of his reach, Lance is certainly capable of another podium spot by virtue of his cunning and determined style of racing. Look for his team to work a bit harder to get him a final stage win as well, especially if he appears to have fallen out of contention.
And as far as the rest of his time in France is concerned, pay attention to whom Lance spends his time chatting with in the peloton as they might just become the new leader of The Shack in 2011, the year Lance seeks to win his first Tour de France—as a team manager, that is.
Man of the Hour: Lance—even if his team doesn’t give press conferences.
On the Hot Seat: Lost in the hubbub over Big Tex has been the slow, subtle decline of Levi Leipheimer. Levi is 36, several years past his best years as a rider. Racing in Lance’s shadow has obscured the fact that the California native hasn’t won an individual race since last year’s ATOC. Levi needs a good showing in France to prove he still has what it takes to win.
Up-and-Comer: Janez Brajkovic rides his first Tour after years of waiting in the wings. The 26-year-old Slovenian could be the future of what is a relatively “old” team. If he can climb and time trial like he did in June’s Dauphiné, he could turn out to be The Shack’s best rider—now.
Happy to be There: Chris Horner was a disappointing absentee from last year’s Tour after team politics kept him off the roster. Like Lance, Chris is 38 and nearing the end of his career—although you wouldn’t know it given his recent results. Here’s hoping he gets at least one chance to ride for a stage win in this year’s race—there’s perhaps not a more deserving rider.
Feeling Left Out: Geert Steegmans might be a bit miffed about missing this year’s Tour de France since it passes through Belgium. Steegmans won a Belgian Tour stage in 2007 and perhaps was looking to do so again. But despite his ambitions, it’s hard to Steegmans having a spot on team already leaving Tour veterans Jose Luis Rubiera and Tomas Vaitkus at home as well.
Team Saxo Bank
Last but not least, we have Team Saxo Bank, a squad who’s been in the press quite a bit lately—and for the wrong reasons.
When Saxo Bank announced that is was ending its sponsorship at the end of 2010, everyone assumed that Bjarne Riis would pull yet another rabbit from his hat—and probably right before the Tour. For a while it appeared that this would indeed be the case, with current co-sponsor Sun Guard stepping-up to become the new title sponsor. However, as recently as today’s press conference, there were no announcements coming from Riis—only promises that his team would continue.
Uh, oh.
To make matters worse, (former) members of Riis’ staff have decided to take matters into their own hands to create a new Pro Tour team for Luxembourg—rumored to be sponsored by French supermarket chain, Auchan. Of course, you can’t talk about Saxo Bank and Luxembourg without at least mentioning Andy and Frank Schleck—they’re rumored to be involved too, but this can’t be confirmed as they are currently under contract.
Clearly, there’s something rotten in the state of Denmark. (Been waiting all week to write that!)
But moving on, there’s a little matter of the Tour de France at hand, a race Saxo Bank has a very good shot of winning.
Andy Schleck (the younger of the two brothers) finished second in last year’s Tour and seems to be the only rider—based upon last year’s performances at least—with a realistic shot at overcoming Alberto Contador. Next to Contador, he’s perhaps the most electric climber in the race, but needs to improve considerably against the clock in order to strike some serious fear in his Spanish rival.
As for Frank, he’s taken fifth-place in both of the last two editions, earning a stage win last year as well. An even lesser time trialist than his brother, Frank turned heads when he came from behind to win this year’s Tour de Suisse—in a time trial, no less.
In order to defeat Contador in this year’s race, Andy and Frank will need to go on the offensive early, exposing Contador and his team to a constant wave of attacks. The rest of Saxo’s squad is much deeper and more adept at controlling—and stringing-out—a race than Astana, something they’ll need to exploit. And should Saxo Bank and Radio Shack choose to work in tandem, it could mean lights-out for Alberto.
Look for Saxo Bank to go on the offensive as early as Stage 3, using Stuart O’Grady, Fabian Cancellara, and their 3 Paris-Roubaix titles to apply some serious pressure to the softer squads on the pavé. On other transitional days, Jens Voigt, Matti Breschel, and Nicki Sorensen can apply the heat, while Jacob Fuglsang and Chris Anker Sorensen can turn the screws when the race heads to the mountains.
That’s a lot of metaphors. (Must be the Shakespeare.)
In the end, it will take nothing short of a full team effort to topple Contador and Astana in this year’s Tour de France. But the question remains: will Saxo Bank have a team by the end of it?
Man of the Hour: Andy Schleck is the #1 threat to Contador’s throne. Better still, he’s only 25—this rivalry’s just getting started.
On the Hot Seat: It seems as if every other year Bjarne Riis is on the hot seat to find a new sponsor for his team. This season, things look particularly perilous, as members of his staff have left to form their own program. Riis needs a new sponsor—and fast—if he wants to keep the core of this year’s team intact.
Up-and-Comer: Jacob Fuglsang gets his first shot at the Tour following a third-place finish in last month’s Tour de Suisse. The Dane’s already received interest from other squads, making him one of several riders waiting to hear what Riis has or hasn’t found for 2011.
Happy to Be There: Following his scary crash on the descent of the Col du Petit-Saint-Bernard in Stage 16 of last year’s race, Jens Voigt is just happy to be riding this year’s Tour. But as we all know, “just riding” is not a phrase Jens knows very well.
Feeling Left Out: Gustav Erik Larsson did just about everything that was asked of him prior to this year’s Tour de France, but in the end it just wasn’t enough to earn an invitation. The lack of a TTT in this year’s race was likely the biggest detriment to his chances, as he would have been a major asset to his team in the event of its inclusion.
That's it for now--come back tomorrow for list of questions we hope to see answered during this year's Tour. And look for the launch of our new site Saturday!
Showing posts with label saxo bank. Show all posts
Showing posts with label saxo bank. Show all posts
Thursday, July 1, 2010
Wednesday, April 7, 2010
Cancellara RVV Bike Change Video
This didn't work the first time I tried to post it, so I did a video screen capture and tried my best to get a good copy of the footage--so excuse the first few moments.
As for the action itself, well--it speaks for itself. Enjoy!
One note: if you are the original owner of this footage and would not like it shared, please contact me and I'll be happy to take it down and/or credit you for filming it.
As for the action itself, well--it speaks for itself. Enjoy!
One note: if you are the original owner of this footage and would not like it shared, please contact me and I'll be happy to take it down and/or credit you for filming it.
Wednesday, March 17, 2010
Tirreno-Adriatico - What We Learned
Italy’s Tirreno-Adriatico wrapped-up yesterday with Sky’s Edvald Boasson Hagen sprinting to the stage win ahead of Alessandro Petacchi and Sacha Modolo. Let’s take a minute or two to discuss what we learned during the “Race of the Two Seas”.
1. Tom Boonen’s ready to win Milan-San Remo. Judging from his win in Stage 2 and a day spent on the attack in Stage 6, Tom Boonen’s sights seem squarely set on a victory in Saturday’s Milan-San Remo. With a team dedicated to his success, another Monument win seems to be a very real possibility for the Belgian Champion.
2. Astana’s not a one-trick pony. While all eyes were on Alberto Contador’s battle with Caisse d’Epargne in France, the rest of his team was quietly turning heads in Italy. Maxim Iglinksy started the ball rolling with a fantastic win in L’Eroica on the Saturday before Tirreno and Enrico Gasparotto took a win in similar fashion in Tirreno’s Stage 5. Furthermore, there was always an Astana rider in the breakaway as they were clearly one of the most aggressive teams to take part. At this point, it’s easy to see why some are quietly wondering if the departure of Armstrong and Co. was a good thing for the team.
3. The jury’s still out on BMC for the cobbled classics. Cadel Evans aggressively raced to a 3rd-place finish, almost winning a stage in the process. Aside from that, there wasn’t much to write home about from BMC. Hincapie claims his form is improving, while Burghardt spent the day in the break on Stage 6, ultimately being one of the last men to be caught. And Alessandro Ballan? Well, there’s not much to say there. Overall, while there were no signs of regression—no sickness or crashes laid claim to any of BMC’s top guns—there was nothing to indicate continued progress toward the team’s northern goals.
4. Fabian Cancellara and his Saxo Bank team were notably absent from the proceedings. This is either really good or really bad for Spartacus’ competitors come the cobbled classics. He and Ballan are two riders hoping for a return to winning form in time for Flanders and Roubaix—here’s hoping their quiet week in Italy is a sign of bigger things to come.
5. It’s not over ‘til the bald Italian sings. Credit Stefano Garzelli and his team for continuing the race for the overall title through the final day. One can only wonder what would happen if two riders were to head into the Tour’s final stage with mere seconds between them—would we see something resembling the last stage at Tirreno?
6. And speaking of Garzelli and good form, it looks like Pavé is coming into form as well—if I may say so myself. Allow me to quote from our Tirreno-Adriatico Preview:
“And let’s not forget the Italians hoping to score a stage or two in front of their home crowds, men like Giovanni Visconti, Stefano Garzelli, and last year’s winner Michele Scarponi come to mind. Here’s where you might find an overall favorite or two, as they’re fast enough to finish near the front in a sprint, while aggressive and lithe enough to perhaps steal time on hillier days. Scarponi won the race last year; he’ll be extra-motivated to defend to his title.”
Obvious choices? Perhaps—but it still feels good to be right every once in a while.
Although I’ve probably just jinxed myself for the rest of the season.
What about you? What did you take away from this year’s Tirreno-Adriatico? Share your thoughts below.
1. Tom Boonen’s ready to win Milan-San Remo. Judging from his win in Stage 2 and a day spent on the attack in Stage 6, Tom Boonen’s sights seem squarely set on a victory in Saturday’s Milan-San Remo. With a team dedicated to his success, another Monument win seems to be a very real possibility for the Belgian Champion.
2. Astana’s not a one-trick pony. While all eyes were on Alberto Contador’s battle with Caisse d’Epargne in France, the rest of his team was quietly turning heads in Italy. Maxim Iglinksy started the ball rolling with a fantastic win in L’Eroica on the Saturday before Tirreno and Enrico Gasparotto took a win in similar fashion in Tirreno’s Stage 5. Furthermore, there was always an Astana rider in the breakaway as they were clearly one of the most aggressive teams to take part. At this point, it’s easy to see why some are quietly wondering if the departure of Armstrong and Co. was a good thing for the team.
3. The jury’s still out on BMC for the cobbled classics. Cadel Evans aggressively raced to a 3rd-place finish, almost winning a stage in the process. Aside from that, there wasn’t much to write home about from BMC. Hincapie claims his form is improving, while Burghardt spent the day in the break on Stage 6, ultimately being one of the last men to be caught. And Alessandro Ballan? Well, there’s not much to say there. Overall, while there were no signs of regression—no sickness or crashes laid claim to any of BMC’s top guns—there was nothing to indicate continued progress toward the team’s northern goals.
4. Fabian Cancellara and his Saxo Bank team were notably absent from the proceedings. This is either really good or really bad for Spartacus’ competitors come the cobbled classics. He and Ballan are two riders hoping for a return to winning form in time for Flanders and Roubaix—here’s hoping their quiet week in Italy is a sign of bigger things to come.
5. It’s not over ‘til the bald Italian sings. Credit Stefano Garzelli and his team for continuing the race for the overall title through the final day. One can only wonder what would happen if two riders were to head into the Tour’s final stage with mere seconds between them—would we see something resembling the last stage at Tirreno?
6. And speaking of Garzelli and good form, it looks like Pavé is coming into form as well—if I may say so myself. Allow me to quote from our Tirreno-Adriatico Preview:
“And let’s not forget the Italians hoping to score a stage or two in front of their home crowds, men like Giovanni Visconti, Stefano Garzelli, and last year’s winner Michele Scarponi come to mind. Here’s where you might find an overall favorite or two, as they’re fast enough to finish near the front in a sprint, while aggressive and lithe enough to perhaps steal time on hillier days. Scarponi won the race last year; he’ll be extra-motivated to defend to his title.”
Obvious choices? Perhaps—but it still feels good to be right every once in a while.
Although I’ve probably just jinxed myself for the rest of the season.
What about you? What did you take away from this year’s Tirreno-Adriatico? Share your thoughts below.
Thursday, February 25, 2010
Pavé's 2010 Season Preview - Part 4 (Teams 5-1)
Here are the Top-5 teams in Pavé's Top-5 teams of 2010. Share your comments below and thanks for reading!
#5 – BMC
The new-and-improved BMC is the first of 2 Professional Continental teams in the Top-5, proof that a Pro Tour license isn’t the only key to success. Jim Ochowicz must have had quite a bit of fun signing the likes of Alessandro Ballan, Marcus Burghardt, Karsten Kroon, George Hincapie, and—just when we all thought the roster was complete—the newly-crowned World Champion, Cadel Evans. While they’re shy to admit it, the signing of Evans gave BMC the final piece they needed to most likely earn an invite to the 2010 Tour.
Regardless, the team is wise to take nothing for granted, planning the first half of its season around the classics and the Giro. Between them, BMC’s new men have all scored top-10 results in all major classics. Burghardt’s a threat in Ghent-Wevelgem and Flanders; Hincapie in Ghent, Flanders, and Roubaix; Ballan in Flanders and Roubaix; Kroon in Amstel; and of course, Evans in the Ardennes. If BMC plans wisely, they could certainly prove to be one of the sport’s most dominant teams from March through April.
After the Ardennes, the focus shifts to the Giro, where Cadel Evans will make another attempt at scoring a win in a Grand Tour. The Giro is a fitting choice, as it’s the place where Cadel first burst onto the Grand Tour scene with Mapei in 2002. He held the Pink Jersey for a day before cracking to finish 14th overall behind Paolo Salvodelli. Evans returns this year, hoping to shrug-off the bad luck he’s displayed in past Grand Tour attempts. While Cuddles is a bit temperamental, I think his Worlds win could be the beginning of a new phase in his career, perhaps instilling the confidence he seems to have lacked in years past. Who knows, maybe he wins the Giro, and then goes to the Tour relaxed and riding high.
The knock against BMC is chemistry. Only Burghardt and Hincapie raced together last season; otherwise everyone comes from a team in which he was more or less an undisputed leader. Will Ballan defer to Hincapie in Roubaix? Will Kroon defer to Evans in Amstel? If everyone peaks at the same time, these are questions that will need to be answered—and not on the road.
Man of the Hour: Cadel Evans won Worlds last year, a victory that moved him from a place on someone’s Hot Seat, to BMC’s Man of the Hour. Hopefully Cadel uses the win as stepping-stone to bigger things. Liege? The Giro? The Tour?
On the Hot Seat: George Hincapie’s running out of time for what would certainly be a career-topping win in Paris-Roubaix. He’s 37, and luckily Roubaix’s one race where age is less of a factor—especially since George’s age comes with the benefit of many years of experience on the pavé. With Burghardt and Ballan at his side, BMC has a team of Quick Step’s caliber, the one thing George has lacked in his past attempts. Clearly, this is George’s best chance yet.
Up-and-Comer: BMC’s perhaps the most up-and-coming squad in the entire sport—hopefully they’ll win enough to justify the distinction.
Best Pick-up: The signings of Evans, Hincapie, and Ballan received more press, but Marcus Burghardt might actually win the most races for BMC, possibly beginning this Saturday in the Omloop.
Biggest Loss: As a squad relatively new to the sport’s upper echelon, BMC’s gained more than it’s lost. We’ll have to revisit this one next year.
#4 – Liquigas
Liquigas has perhaps the youngest and deepest Grand Tour squad in the sport, led by the Four Horsemen of the Green-pocalypse (yes, I made that up myself): Ivan Basso, Franco Pellizotti, Roman Kreuziger, and Vincenzo Nibali. In a way, Liquigas finds itself in a siutution akin to BMC in that its only problem will be sorting-out who’s leading the team in which races. Luckily for them, I have some suggestions:
1. Roman Kreuziger began to show himself as a talented one-day rider in the second half of 2009, nearly winning the Clasica San Sebastien and a stage in the Vuelta. If I were Roberto Amadio, I’d set Roman’s sights on the Ardennes, a goal only a week or two earlier than the Tour of Romandy—a race he won last year. Then I’d send him to the Giro as co-captain with Pellizotti. Maybe he takes the line at the Tour, but otherwise he races the Vuelta and Lombardy.
2. Ivan Basso’s best days might be behind him; now he’s best served as a super-domestique, perhaps riding for one of the other three. I’d have him peak for the Tour, but with the understanding that he’s not the leader—he’ll be there to ride for Vincezo Nibali, a rider whose Tour prospects are headed in a direction opposite his.
3. As for Pellizotti, he’s a talented climber, but not a leader for a Grand Tour. Time trialing is a big weakness, and his best results have come on days when he’s played more the role of the joker than the ace. Like he did in 2009, I’d send Pellizotti to both the Giro and the Tour. In the Giro, he and Kreuziger would be formidable duo. In the Tour, he’s free to hunt for stages in support of Nibali, and perhaps another polka-dot jersey.
4. As for Nibali, it’s all or nothing in this year’s Tour. He showed the potential last year; now he needs to continue to progress. It’s shaping-up to be a difficult field, but with luck Nibali might finish in the first five.
That said, let’s not forget the rest of the squad. Manuel Quinziato and Alexander Kuschynski performed well in the cobbled classics last year; they head into 2010 looking to improve on those results. Daniele Bennati and Francesco Chicchi have both started their seasons with wins; they’ll be hunting for stage wins in the Giro and Tour, with Bennati an outside favorite in some of the flatter classics.
All in all, Liquigas is perhaps one of the most underrated teams in the sport. If their talented youngsters continue to progress, that won’t be the case for long.
Man of the Hour: Italy’s abuzz with talk about Nibali’s 7th-place finish in last year’s Tour. He did just enough to contend both in the mountains and in time trials. This year he’ll need to show considerable improvement in at least one discipline to advance a spot or two in the GC.
On the Hot Seat: Ivan Basso had a respectable return to the sport, including solid rides in the Giro and Vuelta. Unfortunately, his inability to capitalize on his team leadership in Spain leaves many wondering if he wouldn’t be better-off with a different set of goals.
Up-and-Comer: Peter Sagan’s only 19, but he’s already turned the head of Lance Armstrong following a week of aggressive riding in Australia. Sagan’s one of the riders I’ll be following in Saturday’s Omloop Het Nieuwsblad as he’s an accomplished single-day racer with a background in cyclocross. It might be too soon to tell if he’s got the goods to be a successful pro—but he’s certainly off to an auspicious start.
Best Pick-up: Liquigas had a rather quiet off-season, reinforcing its roster with a handful of neo-pros and some younger riders from other teams. One interesting note: Liquigas seems to be fond of riders from former Eastern Bloc nations, with 7 riders on the roster from Poland, Croatia, Slovakia, and the Czech Republic.
Biggest Loss: Considering the talent Liquigas was able to retain, it’s tough to say they truly “lost” anything from 2009 to 2010. In fact, with some exceptions, most of the final 5 teams in the rankings suffered few big losses—perhaps a reason why they find themselves at the top of the heap.
#3 – HTC-Columbia
Then again, maybe I spoke too soon, as HTC suffered several key losses after a fantastic 2009 season. Marcus Burghardt, George Hincapie, Edvald Boassen Hagen, Thomas Lokvist, and Kim Kirchen all left for other teams—taking the bulk of HTC’s wins from 2008 and 2009 with them.
But all is not lost, as two of the sport’s fastest talents remain with HTC: Mark Cavendish and Andre Greipel. Between the two of them, Cavendish and Greipel won 13 stages in the Giro, Tour, and Vuelta. This year, Greipel’s already off to a fantastic start, having won several races. Cavendish on the other hand, has been sick; that could hurt his repeat bid in San Remo.
As for the rest of the team, it’s still quite impressive. Tony Martin performed well during the Tour’s first half last year; he’ll return this season hoping to build on that experience. He can climb and time trial, and could quietly become someone Germany might once again be proud of. He’ll be supported by one of the peloton’s most underrated support riders, Maxime Monfort.
For the Classics, HTC might have found a future champion in Matthew Goss, a rider who showed serious potential with Saxo Bank last year. He’s joined by two other one-day talents, Martin and Peter Velits formerly of Milram. These three could form the nucleus of a talented classics squad for years to come.
All in all, while seemingly depleted, HTC’s roster is chock full of potential—especially if the younger riders begin to flourish as they step from the shadows of their former teammates.
Man of the Hour: Simply put, Mark Cavendish is a superstar. But I have a hunch Greipel will win more races and is perhaps more versatile. I wonder if the squad will prove big enough for both.
On the Hot Seat: Michael Rogers just won the Ruta del Sol, but that only adds fuel to the fire as his Grand Tour potential has been touted for years with little to show for it. Can he finally break through?
Up-and-Comer: Tony Martin’s a good pick, but I want to mention the winner of the 2009 Giro’s 8th stage, Konstantin Siutsou. Siutsou’s been on my radar since he won the “Queen” stage and overall title at the Tour of Georgia in 2008. A talented climber and time trialist, Sioutsou finished the race last year 16th overall. Will he continue to progress?
Best Pick-up: Aside from the riders pulled from other teams, Bob Stapleton also did a terrific job of pulling talent from the U23 ranks including Belgium’s Jan Ghyselinck, Australia’s Leigh Howard, and Tejay Van Garderen from the USA. Once these riders develop, more wins will come for HTC.
Biggest Loss: Boassen Hagen would have won many races; but Hincapie would have helped win even more. It means a lot when Cavendish himself expresses his appreciation for all that Hincapie did.
#2 – Cervélo Test Team
Another Professional Continental team occupies the 2nd spot in our ranking as Cervélo Test Team hopes to build on its terrific first year in the sport. While HTC might be deeper, Cervélo has a better chance of winning big races, led mainly by Heinrich Haussler, Thor Hushovd, and Carlos Sastre. Basing such a lofty ranking on 3 riders is indeed a bit risky, but these men are worthy of such high expectations.
Haussler was the revelation of last year’s spring classics, finishing 2nd in both Milan-San Remo and the Tour of Flanders. While these results were impressive, Haussler’s presence seemed to elevate Thor Hushovd, who had one his better springs with a win in Het Nieuwsblad and 3rd-places in both San Remo and Paris-Roubaix. He and Haussler complement one another well; Haussler’s attacks allow Hushovd to follow wheels, offering him a free ride to the finish should his teammate get caught. Right now, they’re both a bit under the weather, but look for them to peak in time for their favorite cobbled events. As long as they continue to work well together, they’ll be top favorites.
After the classics, it’s Carlos Sastre’s time to shine as the Grand Tour season begins. Last year, Sastre experimented, using the Giro to prepare for the defense of his 2008 Tour de France title. While the experiment didn’t help him in France, he won 2 summit finishes in Italy on his way to placing 4th overall. This year he’s focusing a bit more on the Giro as a result; perhaps he can add a pink jersey to the yellow one he earned two years ago.
In July, all three men will head to the Tour with Hushovd hoping for another green jersey, Sastre another yellow one, and Haussler for more stages. While yellow might be tough—the competition’s just too strong for Sastre—a green jersey and several stages are well within the realm of possibility.
All in all, we’ll know the success of Cervelo’s 2010 campaign by August 1st. A classic or two plus a successful Giro and Tour will be more than enough to justify their status as one of the top 2 or 3 teams in the world.
Man of the Hour: Thor Hushovd had an impressive season in 2009, even though his late-race fall kept him from winning at Roubaix. This year he heads into the season more motivated than ever—will he bring a pavé trophy home to Norway?
On the Hot Seat: Carlos Sastre’s 34, an age many consider to be the beginning of the end—of a Grand Tour rider’s peak, that is. This year might be the last in which he’ll be considered a legitimate contender for an overall title—unless his performances dictates otherwise.
Up-and-Comer: Haussler’s an old story, but he’s an up-and-comer because he’s still on the way up. There’s an incredibly high ceiling for his talent—and we have yet to see him reach it.
Best Pick-up: Cervélo spent surprisingly little money upgrading it’s roster, signing only 5 riders including a 31-year-old, a 34-year-old, and a former track rider. All in all, that’s little to get excited about. Their biggest pick-up might just be SRAM, a component company still willing to throw heaps of cash at elite teams. Did you notice the switch Cervélo made from Dura Ace’s 7900 levers to 7800 levers last year? They weren’t completely compatible with the team’s Rotor cranksets. SRAM’s components offer no such compatibility issues, and likely came with a much bigger check.
Biggest Loss: Cervélo had no chance to retain Simon Gerrans after leaving him home during the 2009 Tour. They’ll miss him in the Ardennes and the Grand Tours—especially if the others fail to find success.
#1 – Saxo Bank
And last, but certainly not least, Saxo Bank earns the title as Pavé’s #1 Team for 2010. With several riders capable of winning multiple classics, stage races, and Grand Tours, there’s really no better choice.
Skipping over Paris-Nice and Tirreno-Adriatico—races Saxo certainly has riders capable of winning—we’ll begin with Milan-San Remo and the cobbled classics where Fabian Cancellara seeks revenge following a less-than-stellar spring in 2009. Spartacus has won San Remo and Roubaix, with the latter a race he would like to win again. The schedule change also favors Saxo’s Swiss superstar, with Ghent-Wevelgem’s earlier date a perfect opportunity for such a powerful rider. Cancellara should have Baden Cooke and Frank Hoj to lean-on for support, with Cooke possibly missing the first weekend to attend the Criterium International—a race another Saxo rider, Jens Voigt, has come to own over the past several years.
Then the Ardennes arrive, the scene of Andy Schleck’s breakthrough win in last year’s Liege-Bastogne-Liege. Then all eyes turn to July, the scene of what will certainly be yet another showdown between Schleck and Alberto Contador—a duel we should get used to. Saxo heads to the race with perhaps the deepest team. Andy will have the support of the team’s best, with Cancellara, Voigt, Frank Schleck, and Gustav Erik Larsson more than capable of controlling the race for their young leader.
Like Cervélo, by this point in the summer we’ll likely be able to judge the overall success of the team’s season as the majority of its riders will have ridden through their season goals—except maybe Cancellara, who proved last year that he can be a contender in any month.
All in all, even after losing a talented a man or two, Bjarne Riis comes into 2010 with the strongest and deepest team in the world—and he’ll need all the help he can get if he hopes to attract a new title sponsor for 2011.
Man of the Hour: Cancellara’s the man of hour at Saxo Bank, both literally and figuratively. Look for him to win races from March through October in a variety of disciplines—and at 28, his best years might still be ahead of him.
On the Hot Seat: Andy Schleck’s on the Hot Seat for no other reason than the fact that he’s the #1 challenger to Contador’s Tour supremacy. By the end of July we’ll know if Andy’s able to handle the pressure.
Up-and-Comer: Jacob Fuglsang’s the next of Saxo Bank’s talented riders to get a chance in the Tour. He’s way down on the depth chart behind the Schleck’s, but he should at least get a taste for the event in. Maybe he can ride well enough to earn a chance somewhere else?
Best Pick-up: Baden Cooke might not be the best of Saxo Bank’s pick-ups, but he’s certainly the most interesting. Bjarne Riis has a talent for resuscitating the careers of wayward souls—I wonder if he’ll prove able to help Baden return to prominence.
Biggest Loss: You mean aside from their title sponsor, right?
And there you have it—the first annual Pavé Team-By-Team Season Preview. Let the debates begin!
Thanks for reading--come back tomorrow for our preview of Belgium’s Opening Weekend. And look for us at NAHBS. The Pavé hat will be a dead giveaway…
#5 – BMC
The new-and-improved BMC is the first of 2 Professional Continental teams in the Top-5, proof that a Pro Tour license isn’t the only key to success. Jim Ochowicz must have had quite a bit of fun signing the likes of Alessandro Ballan, Marcus Burghardt, Karsten Kroon, George Hincapie, and—just when we all thought the roster was complete—the newly-crowned World Champion, Cadel Evans. While they’re shy to admit it, the signing of Evans gave BMC the final piece they needed to most likely earn an invite to the 2010 Tour.
Regardless, the team is wise to take nothing for granted, planning the first half of its season around the classics and the Giro. Between them, BMC’s new men have all scored top-10 results in all major classics. Burghardt’s a threat in Ghent-Wevelgem and Flanders; Hincapie in Ghent, Flanders, and Roubaix; Ballan in Flanders and Roubaix; Kroon in Amstel; and of course, Evans in the Ardennes. If BMC plans wisely, they could certainly prove to be one of the sport’s most dominant teams from March through April.
After the Ardennes, the focus shifts to the Giro, where Cadel Evans will make another attempt at scoring a win in a Grand Tour. The Giro is a fitting choice, as it’s the place where Cadel first burst onto the Grand Tour scene with Mapei in 2002. He held the Pink Jersey for a day before cracking to finish 14th overall behind Paolo Salvodelli. Evans returns this year, hoping to shrug-off the bad luck he’s displayed in past Grand Tour attempts. While Cuddles is a bit temperamental, I think his Worlds win could be the beginning of a new phase in his career, perhaps instilling the confidence he seems to have lacked in years past. Who knows, maybe he wins the Giro, and then goes to the Tour relaxed and riding high.
The knock against BMC is chemistry. Only Burghardt and Hincapie raced together last season; otherwise everyone comes from a team in which he was more or less an undisputed leader. Will Ballan defer to Hincapie in Roubaix? Will Kroon defer to Evans in Amstel? If everyone peaks at the same time, these are questions that will need to be answered—and not on the road.
Man of the Hour: Cadel Evans won Worlds last year, a victory that moved him from a place on someone’s Hot Seat, to BMC’s Man of the Hour. Hopefully Cadel uses the win as stepping-stone to bigger things. Liege? The Giro? The Tour?
On the Hot Seat: George Hincapie’s running out of time for what would certainly be a career-topping win in Paris-Roubaix. He’s 37, and luckily Roubaix’s one race where age is less of a factor—especially since George’s age comes with the benefit of many years of experience on the pavé. With Burghardt and Ballan at his side, BMC has a team of Quick Step’s caliber, the one thing George has lacked in his past attempts. Clearly, this is George’s best chance yet.
Up-and-Comer: BMC’s perhaps the most up-and-coming squad in the entire sport—hopefully they’ll win enough to justify the distinction.
Best Pick-up: The signings of Evans, Hincapie, and Ballan received more press, but Marcus Burghardt might actually win the most races for BMC, possibly beginning this Saturday in the Omloop.
Biggest Loss: As a squad relatively new to the sport’s upper echelon, BMC’s gained more than it’s lost. We’ll have to revisit this one next year.
#4 – Liquigas
Liquigas has perhaps the youngest and deepest Grand Tour squad in the sport, led by the Four Horsemen of the Green-pocalypse (yes, I made that up myself): Ivan Basso, Franco Pellizotti, Roman Kreuziger, and Vincenzo Nibali. In a way, Liquigas finds itself in a siutution akin to BMC in that its only problem will be sorting-out who’s leading the team in which races. Luckily for them, I have some suggestions:
1. Roman Kreuziger began to show himself as a talented one-day rider in the second half of 2009, nearly winning the Clasica San Sebastien and a stage in the Vuelta. If I were Roberto Amadio, I’d set Roman’s sights on the Ardennes, a goal only a week or two earlier than the Tour of Romandy—a race he won last year. Then I’d send him to the Giro as co-captain with Pellizotti. Maybe he takes the line at the Tour, but otherwise he races the Vuelta and Lombardy.
2. Ivan Basso’s best days might be behind him; now he’s best served as a super-domestique, perhaps riding for one of the other three. I’d have him peak for the Tour, but with the understanding that he’s not the leader—he’ll be there to ride for Vincezo Nibali, a rider whose Tour prospects are headed in a direction opposite his.
3. As for Pellizotti, he’s a talented climber, but not a leader for a Grand Tour. Time trialing is a big weakness, and his best results have come on days when he’s played more the role of the joker than the ace. Like he did in 2009, I’d send Pellizotti to both the Giro and the Tour. In the Giro, he and Kreuziger would be formidable duo. In the Tour, he’s free to hunt for stages in support of Nibali, and perhaps another polka-dot jersey.
4. As for Nibali, it’s all or nothing in this year’s Tour. He showed the potential last year; now he needs to continue to progress. It’s shaping-up to be a difficult field, but with luck Nibali might finish in the first five.
That said, let’s not forget the rest of the squad. Manuel Quinziato and Alexander Kuschynski performed well in the cobbled classics last year; they head into 2010 looking to improve on those results. Daniele Bennati and Francesco Chicchi have both started their seasons with wins; they’ll be hunting for stage wins in the Giro and Tour, with Bennati an outside favorite in some of the flatter classics.
All in all, Liquigas is perhaps one of the most underrated teams in the sport. If their talented youngsters continue to progress, that won’t be the case for long.
Man of the Hour: Italy’s abuzz with talk about Nibali’s 7th-place finish in last year’s Tour. He did just enough to contend both in the mountains and in time trials. This year he’ll need to show considerable improvement in at least one discipline to advance a spot or two in the GC.
On the Hot Seat: Ivan Basso had a respectable return to the sport, including solid rides in the Giro and Vuelta. Unfortunately, his inability to capitalize on his team leadership in Spain leaves many wondering if he wouldn’t be better-off with a different set of goals.
Up-and-Comer: Peter Sagan’s only 19, but he’s already turned the head of Lance Armstrong following a week of aggressive riding in Australia. Sagan’s one of the riders I’ll be following in Saturday’s Omloop Het Nieuwsblad as he’s an accomplished single-day racer with a background in cyclocross. It might be too soon to tell if he’s got the goods to be a successful pro—but he’s certainly off to an auspicious start.
Best Pick-up: Liquigas had a rather quiet off-season, reinforcing its roster with a handful of neo-pros and some younger riders from other teams. One interesting note: Liquigas seems to be fond of riders from former Eastern Bloc nations, with 7 riders on the roster from Poland, Croatia, Slovakia, and the Czech Republic.
Biggest Loss: Considering the talent Liquigas was able to retain, it’s tough to say they truly “lost” anything from 2009 to 2010. In fact, with some exceptions, most of the final 5 teams in the rankings suffered few big losses—perhaps a reason why they find themselves at the top of the heap.
#3 – HTC-Columbia
Then again, maybe I spoke too soon, as HTC suffered several key losses after a fantastic 2009 season. Marcus Burghardt, George Hincapie, Edvald Boassen Hagen, Thomas Lokvist, and Kim Kirchen all left for other teams—taking the bulk of HTC’s wins from 2008 and 2009 with them.
But all is not lost, as two of the sport’s fastest talents remain with HTC: Mark Cavendish and Andre Greipel. Between the two of them, Cavendish and Greipel won 13 stages in the Giro, Tour, and Vuelta. This year, Greipel’s already off to a fantastic start, having won several races. Cavendish on the other hand, has been sick; that could hurt his repeat bid in San Remo.
As for the rest of the team, it’s still quite impressive. Tony Martin performed well during the Tour’s first half last year; he’ll return this season hoping to build on that experience. He can climb and time trial, and could quietly become someone Germany might once again be proud of. He’ll be supported by one of the peloton’s most underrated support riders, Maxime Monfort.
For the Classics, HTC might have found a future champion in Matthew Goss, a rider who showed serious potential with Saxo Bank last year. He’s joined by two other one-day talents, Martin and Peter Velits formerly of Milram. These three could form the nucleus of a talented classics squad for years to come.
All in all, while seemingly depleted, HTC’s roster is chock full of potential—especially if the younger riders begin to flourish as they step from the shadows of their former teammates.
Man of the Hour: Simply put, Mark Cavendish is a superstar. But I have a hunch Greipel will win more races and is perhaps more versatile. I wonder if the squad will prove big enough for both.
On the Hot Seat: Michael Rogers just won the Ruta del Sol, but that only adds fuel to the fire as his Grand Tour potential has been touted for years with little to show for it. Can he finally break through?
Up-and-Comer: Tony Martin’s a good pick, but I want to mention the winner of the 2009 Giro’s 8th stage, Konstantin Siutsou. Siutsou’s been on my radar since he won the “Queen” stage and overall title at the Tour of Georgia in 2008. A talented climber and time trialist, Sioutsou finished the race last year 16th overall. Will he continue to progress?
Best Pick-up: Aside from the riders pulled from other teams, Bob Stapleton also did a terrific job of pulling talent from the U23 ranks including Belgium’s Jan Ghyselinck, Australia’s Leigh Howard, and Tejay Van Garderen from the USA. Once these riders develop, more wins will come for HTC.
Biggest Loss: Boassen Hagen would have won many races; but Hincapie would have helped win even more. It means a lot when Cavendish himself expresses his appreciation for all that Hincapie did.
#2 – Cervélo Test Team
Another Professional Continental team occupies the 2nd spot in our ranking as Cervélo Test Team hopes to build on its terrific first year in the sport. While HTC might be deeper, Cervélo has a better chance of winning big races, led mainly by Heinrich Haussler, Thor Hushovd, and Carlos Sastre. Basing such a lofty ranking on 3 riders is indeed a bit risky, but these men are worthy of such high expectations.
Haussler was the revelation of last year’s spring classics, finishing 2nd in both Milan-San Remo and the Tour of Flanders. While these results were impressive, Haussler’s presence seemed to elevate Thor Hushovd, who had one his better springs with a win in Het Nieuwsblad and 3rd-places in both San Remo and Paris-Roubaix. He and Haussler complement one another well; Haussler’s attacks allow Hushovd to follow wheels, offering him a free ride to the finish should his teammate get caught. Right now, they’re both a bit under the weather, but look for them to peak in time for their favorite cobbled events. As long as they continue to work well together, they’ll be top favorites.
After the classics, it’s Carlos Sastre’s time to shine as the Grand Tour season begins. Last year, Sastre experimented, using the Giro to prepare for the defense of his 2008 Tour de France title. While the experiment didn’t help him in France, he won 2 summit finishes in Italy on his way to placing 4th overall. This year he’s focusing a bit more on the Giro as a result; perhaps he can add a pink jersey to the yellow one he earned two years ago.
In July, all three men will head to the Tour with Hushovd hoping for another green jersey, Sastre another yellow one, and Haussler for more stages. While yellow might be tough—the competition’s just too strong for Sastre—a green jersey and several stages are well within the realm of possibility.
All in all, we’ll know the success of Cervelo’s 2010 campaign by August 1st. A classic or two plus a successful Giro and Tour will be more than enough to justify their status as one of the top 2 or 3 teams in the world.
Man of the Hour: Thor Hushovd had an impressive season in 2009, even though his late-race fall kept him from winning at Roubaix. This year he heads into the season more motivated than ever—will he bring a pavé trophy home to Norway?
On the Hot Seat: Carlos Sastre’s 34, an age many consider to be the beginning of the end—of a Grand Tour rider’s peak, that is. This year might be the last in which he’ll be considered a legitimate contender for an overall title—unless his performances dictates otherwise.
Up-and-Comer: Haussler’s an old story, but he’s an up-and-comer because he’s still on the way up. There’s an incredibly high ceiling for his talent—and we have yet to see him reach it.
Best Pick-up: Cervélo spent surprisingly little money upgrading it’s roster, signing only 5 riders including a 31-year-old, a 34-year-old, and a former track rider. All in all, that’s little to get excited about. Their biggest pick-up might just be SRAM, a component company still willing to throw heaps of cash at elite teams. Did you notice the switch Cervélo made from Dura Ace’s 7900 levers to 7800 levers last year? They weren’t completely compatible with the team’s Rotor cranksets. SRAM’s components offer no such compatibility issues, and likely came with a much bigger check.
Biggest Loss: Cervélo had no chance to retain Simon Gerrans after leaving him home during the 2009 Tour. They’ll miss him in the Ardennes and the Grand Tours—especially if the others fail to find success.
#1 – Saxo Bank
And last, but certainly not least, Saxo Bank earns the title as Pavé’s #1 Team for 2010. With several riders capable of winning multiple classics, stage races, and Grand Tours, there’s really no better choice.
Skipping over Paris-Nice and Tirreno-Adriatico—races Saxo certainly has riders capable of winning—we’ll begin with Milan-San Remo and the cobbled classics where Fabian Cancellara seeks revenge following a less-than-stellar spring in 2009. Spartacus has won San Remo and Roubaix, with the latter a race he would like to win again. The schedule change also favors Saxo’s Swiss superstar, with Ghent-Wevelgem’s earlier date a perfect opportunity for such a powerful rider. Cancellara should have Baden Cooke and Frank Hoj to lean-on for support, with Cooke possibly missing the first weekend to attend the Criterium International—a race another Saxo rider, Jens Voigt, has come to own over the past several years.
Then the Ardennes arrive, the scene of Andy Schleck’s breakthrough win in last year’s Liege-Bastogne-Liege. Then all eyes turn to July, the scene of what will certainly be yet another showdown between Schleck and Alberto Contador—a duel we should get used to. Saxo heads to the race with perhaps the deepest team. Andy will have the support of the team’s best, with Cancellara, Voigt, Frank Schleck, and Gustav Erik Larsson more than capable of controlling the race for their young leader.
Like Cervélo, by this point in the summer we’ll likely be able to judge the overall success of the team’s season as the majority of its riders will have ridden through their season goals—except maybe Cancellara, who proved last year that he can be a contender in any month.
All in all, even after losing a talented a man or two, Bjarne Riis comes into 2010 with the strongest and deepest team in the world—and he’ll need all the help he can get if he hopes to attract a new title sponsor for 2011.
Man of the Hour: Cancellara’s the man of hour at Saxo Bank, both literally and figuratively. Look for him to win races from March through October in a variety of disciplines—and at 28, his best years might still be ahead of him.
On the Hot Seat: Andy Schleck’s on the Hot Seat for no other reason than the fact that he’s the #1 challenger to Contador’s Tour supremacy. By the end of July we’ll know if Andy’s able to handle the pressure.
Up-and-Comer: Jacob Fuglsang’s the next of Saxo Bank’s talented riders to get a chance in the Tour. He’s way down on the depth chart behind the Schleck’s, but he should at least get a taste for the event in. Maybe he can ride well enough to earn a chance somewhere else?
Best Pick-up: Baden Cooke might not be the best of Saxo Bank’s pick-ups, but he’s certainly the most interesting. Bjarne Riis has a talent for resuscitating the careers of wayward souls—I wonder if he’ll prove able to help Baden return to prominence.
Biggest Loss: You mean aside from their title sponsor, right?
And there you have it—the first annual Pavé Team-By-Team Season Preview. Let the debates begin!
Thanks for reading--come back tomorrow for our preview of Belgium’s Opening Weekend. And look for us at NAHBS. The Pavé hat will be a dead giveaway…
Monday, January 11, 2010
Monday Musette - Money, Assault (Aesthetic and Physical), and Craftmanship
1. By now you’ve heard the news of Milram and Saxo Bank’s withdrawals from title sponsorship following the 2010 season. (If not, The Boulder Report has a nice summary of all you need to know.) Here’s my question: at what point will the bubble burst? Some might be inclined to say no, as this season sees several new sponsors joining the ranks—including big investments by both Radio Shack and Sky. But to me, these deal seem more a result of companies hoping to cash-in on the sport’s biggest stars at the height of their popularity (such as Armstrong and Wiggins) and less an indicator of the sport’s fiscal health.
Losing sponsors such as Saxo Bank and Milram could be very, very bad for the sport should replacements not be found. Hopefully it’s not the tip of the iceberg. Luckily, Bjarne Riis has proven himself adept to find last-minute funds when he needs to. Look for him to have someone new on-board by the Tour, most likely a co-sponsor that will magically become the title sponsor in 2011. However, Milram’s Gerry Van Gerwen faces a tough proposition; his task is made more difficult given the fact that Milram’s not quite a team known for winning races.
2. And while we’re on the subject of teams and sponsors: is it me, or is this the ugliest jersey you’ve EVER seen? As their tans deepen by mid-summer, some of these riders will look downright naked! A better choice would have been something similar to the design used for the team’s two Austrian Champions, Markus Eibegger and Matthias Brändle, a tasteful red and white color scheme. Ugh.
3. Tough luck for Niels Albert in this weekend’s Belgian National Cyclocross Championship as a collision with a drunken fan broke one of his ribs. Don’t forget, this isn’t the first time there’s been a scuffle between a rider and a fan at a Belgian cyclocross event, right Bart Wellens? This time, the unprovoked actions of one inebriated spectator threaten to ruin one of the purest fan-to-racer experiences the sport still has to offer.
One of the best things about cyclocross is the close proximity we as fans can get to the action. We don’t need a car to ride from vantage point to vantage point, and lap times aren’t so high that we lose interest before the next go-around. We can stand in one place for an hour, drink, frites, or cowbell in hand, and watch the events unfold right before our very eyes. It’s a front row seat to the action.
But like so much in life, it’s all fun and games until someone breaks a rib. And it must be noted: Belgium’s quickly developing a reputation for producing hooligans dressed as fans. Remember the encouragement Filippo Pozzato received while chasing Tom Boonen in last year’s Paris-Roubaix? Passion is passion, and hometown favoritism is hometown favoritism; but assault’s something else.
Before moving-on, I think it’s important to include one of the more entertaining bits from Cyclingnews’ report on the incident:
“Roodhooft [Albert’s manager] went on to say that the spectator claimed to be a supporter of Albert, although he was standing with fans of Nys.”
I find this comical only because I’m certain there’s an investigation underway in Belgium to find the true allegiance of the perpetrator—it will be a topic of conversation for weeks.
And for the record, Albert said he wasn’t going to win anyway, so enjoy your 7th title, Meneer Nijs.
4. On a related note, Lars Boom won the Dutch National Championship in his first season as a “retired” cross racer. I can’t wait to see what he’ll do in this year’s Classics.
5. And finally, take a look at the beautiful bike Justin Spinelli assembled for one of his customers at Svelte Cycles. It’s especially interesting when juxtaposed with Competitive Cyclist’s explanation of its decision to stop selling Pegoretti framesets. Personally, I’m on the fence. I agree with Competitive Cyclist: when you pay for a bike from the master, you’re paying for the master’s expertise as well—no questions asked. But at the same time, there’s something to be said for a builder able to take a customer’s idea and craft it with skill. Svelte’s Mondrian IF is a fine example of what can happen when a customer, a shop, and a master frame builder are all on the same page.
That’s it for today. What are your thoughts on the fiscal state of the sport? How about your picks for Ugliest Jersey? And what can be done about spectator-racer “interaction” at cyclocross races?
Share your thoughts on these and all others topics below—and have a great week!
P.S. A little self-promotion: tomorrow’s the deadline for the nominating your favorite blogs for the 2010 Bloggie Awards. If you have the time, cruise over and nominate your favorites (there are several categories from which to choose). I’m not saying you should vote for Pavé, but I’m sure you can think of someone out there who deserves some recognition—it might make his/her day.
Monday, November 23, 2009
Monday Musette - SBC/AC Follow-up, Merckx, Molly, & Christmas Shopping
For some of us, today presents the beginning of a short week, regardless, there's much to talk about:
1. My post Friday certainly generated a lot of feedback! First I want to thank everyone who shared an opinion. I'm excited to see the Pavé community growing into a place where opinions are shared and discussed by everyone--not just me.
That said, a follow-up to Friday's rant: despite how my thoughts came across, I am well aware that the sponsorship of a professional cycling team is a business decision made for the sake of what all parties involved consider to be their best interests. In Specialized's case, the chance to sponsor such as Alberto Contador is something most companies would welcome. I'm not so naive as to think that Specialized would refuse such an opportunity simply on principle.
However, my opinion is indeed one of principle, and--perhaps more than that--personal preference as my tastes are drawn to the Classics more than the Grand Tours. I believe just about anyone can build a bike able to succeed in a 3-week stage race; however, building a bike that is technologically advanced while still able to withstand the rigors of the cobbled classics is something much more difficult. With both Quick Step and Saxo Bank, I think Specialized had their bases covered--and I liked that.
So in short, while I understand the business implications of the decision, I wish they wouldn't have done it, simply because I would have preferred them to remain with Quick Step. And more so, I think Astana deserves--at some point--to be held accountable for its ramshackle decision-making and poor PR. As long as the Contador's and the Specialized's of the world enable/reward these teams by signing deals with them, the message will never get through that running a professional cycling team means a lot more than just paying your riders to race.
Okay, I'm off my soap box--for now.
2. If you recall, last week I asked for recommendations as to where I could get my Merckx bicycles fix. Tears for Gears seems to be the place. Great photos, clear scans of vintage catalogs (not just from Eddy Merckx), and some quality research make it a terrific read for anyone feeling a bit nostalgic. Dig around a little (seriously, it's the best way to fully experience all that's there) and find the database of Merckx serial numbers--if you're an owner, you might want to send your info!
3. Molly Cameron's been a web-pal of mine for a little while now, and while we've never had the pleasure of meeting face to face, I have been enjoying her exploits from afar. Two weeks ago, Molly went to head-to-head with the other contenders for the series title in Portland's Cross Crusade finalé, only to narrowly miss-out due to an untimely "chute". You can read Molly's account at her website and even watch a video, but I think this photo speaks louder than words.
4. Last, but not least: lately I've been spending way too much time perusing photostreams on Flickr. Ira Ryan and Signal Cycles were two of my favorites this past weekend. My wife asked me yesterday what I wanted for Christmas; I wanted to say, "a deposit on a Signal cyclocross frame, please." Instead I opted for: "The real question is, what do you want for Christmas, honey?"
And I'll leave you with that for today. Any more thoughts on Specialized and Contador? Which do you think is harder: building a bike for the Tour or a bike for the cobbled classics? And last but not least, what should I want for Christmas?
Enjoy your day! Thanks for reading!
1. My post Friday certainly generated a lot of feedback! First I want to thank everyone who shared an opinion. I'm excited to see the Pavé community growing into a place where opinions are shared and discussed by everyone--not just me.
That said, a follow-up to Friday's rant: despite how my thoughts came across, I am well aware that the sponsorship of a professional cycling team is a business decision made for the sake of what all parties involved consider to be their best interests. In Specialized's case, the chance to sponsor such as Alberto Contador is something most companies would welcome. I'm not so naive as to think that Specialized would refuse such an opportunity simply on principle.
However, my opinion is indeed one of principle, and--perhaps more than that--personal preference as my tastes are drawn to the Classics more than the Grand Tours. I believe just about anyone can build a bike able to succeed in a 3-week stage race; however, building a bike that is technologically advanced while still able to withstand the rigors of the cobbled classics is something much more difficult. With both Quick Step and Saxo Bank, I think Specialized had their bases covered--and I liked that.
So in short, while I understand the business implications of the decision, I wish they wouldn't have done it, simply because I would have preferred them to remain with Quick Step. And more so, I think Astana deserves--at some point--to be held accountable for its ramshackle decision-making and poor PR. As long as the Contador's and the Specialized's of the world enable/reward these teams by signing deals with them, the message will never get through that running a professional cycling team means a lot more than just paying your riders to race.
Okay, I'm off my soap box--for now.
2. If you recall, last week I asked for recommendations as to where I could get my Merckx bicycles fix. Tears for Gears seems to be the place. Great photos, clear scans of vintage catalogs (not just from Eddy Merckx), and some quality research make it a terrific read for anyone feeling a bit nostalgic. Dig around a little (seriously, it's the best way to fully experience all that's there) and find the database of Merckx serial numbers--if you're an owner, you might want to send your info!
3. Molly Cameron's been a web-pal of mine for a little while now, and while we've never had the pleasure of meeting face to face, I have been enjoying her exploits from afar. Two weeks ago, Molly went to head-to-head with the other contenders for the series title in Portland's Cross Crusade finalé, only to narrowly miss-out due to an untimely "chute". You can read Molly's account at her website and even watch a video, but I think this photo speaks louder than words.
4. Last, but not least: lately I've been spending way too much time perusing photostreams on Flickr. Ira Ryan and Signal Cycles were two of my favorites this past weekend. My wife asked me yesterday what I wanted for Christmas; I wanted to say, "a deposit on a Signal cyclocross frame, please." Instead I opted for: "The real question is, what do you want for Christmas, honey?"
And I'll leave you with that for today. Any more thoughts on Specialized and Contador? Which do you think is harder: building a bike for the Tour or a bike for the cobbled classics? And last but not least, what should I want for Christmas?
Enjoy your day! Thanks for reading!
Thursday, July 2, 2009
Tour de France Preview - Les Équipes du Tour - Part Quatre
Here's the fourth and final installment in Pavé's "Les Équipes du Tour" Preview. If you missed them, you can read Part Une here, Part Deux here, and Part Trois here.
Keep coming back for more coverage, predictions, and reactions to events as they unfold at le Grand Boucle. We promise daily coverage of all that happens.
Tomorrow, we'll be making 5 Indefensible Claims about this year's race--be sure to check it out!
Now back to the Preview:
Saxo Bank
It would be a serious mistake not to consider Andy Schleck a top favorite for this year’s Tour de France. Thanks to Carlos Sastre’s departure and his brother Frank's injury in the Amstel Gold Race, Andy should go into this year’s Tour with the full team at his disposal. Whether he will or not remains a big question as the Tour begins.
Saxo takes the start in Monaco with one of the most well-rounded teams in the race. Lacking only a field sprinter, the team is built for controlling things for whomever it deems its GC leader. Fabian Cancellara, Jens Voigt, Stuart O’Grady, and Kurt-Asle Arvesen are rouleurs who will help Saxo finish near the top of TTT and control things on flatter roads. And speaking of Spartacus, he’s showed tremendous form as of late, winning the Tour de Suisse and the Swiss National Championship--in the road race. Clearly anything but yellow in the Prologue will be a disappointment for Cancellara, and the team will quickly need to decide how long it wishes to defend his maillot jaune. The other three will also have their chances for breakaway stage wins once the GC scene gets a bit more settled; they’ve all had Tour stage success in the past.
The best thing about Saxo’s rouleurs is their ability to set the pace in the mountains. It's not strange to see riders like Cancellara and Voigt riding men off the back of the GC group when things get steep. And if they can’t, Saxo has talent like Gustav Larsson, Chris Anker Sørensen and Nicki Sørensen to help in the mountains. Anker Sørensen’s riding his first Tour, and is a rider to watch for the future.
The wild card is Frank Schleck. His status needs to be assessed quickly so as not to compromise the team’s chances for GC success. If he’s injured, he should be used as a decoy early, attacking when he can to tire the legs of other teams. If healthy and his brother can play off one another in the Alps to try and crack the competition (and hopefully not each other).
All in all, it should be another banner year for Bjarne Rijs and his team. With a talented roster, stage wins should be plentiful. But for the GC it will all come down to the two men with the same last name—and no, we don’t mean the Sørensen’s.
Silence-Lotto
Cadel Evans comes to the Tour a bit more relaxed this year as at least some of the weight of being "Top Favorite" has passed from him to other riders. For Evans, a rider with a penchant for cracking under pressure, this is a very good thing. At least in the early stages, Cadel and his team should ride free of the burden of controlling race, content to sit back and let others set the pace when things matter most. Evans is not as talented as Contador, Armstrong, and maybe even Andy Schleck; he’ll need to be consistent and look to capitalize on his competitors' bad moments--if they have them. That said, he can win this race. Some good TT’s and a well-timed attack or two could put him in yellow. Then the pressure's on to keep it.
More importantly, this year Evans seems to have a team behind him more committed than ever to getting him to Paris on the top step of the podium. Gone are the days of splitting the team between Evans’ GC hopes and Robbie McEwen’s stage and Green Jersey aspirations. Yes, Greg Van Avermaet is there, but he’s a rouleur able to help the team when asked, while still mixing it up for a stage here and there (but not enough to warrant a full complement of riders to form a lead-out train).
Thomas Dekker was planning to take the line hoping to prove the glimpses of talent he’s showed in the past weren’t anomalies. He could have been Evans’ greatest ally when the race hit the mountains. Alas, he’s been left-off the squad (and now fired) following a 2007 positive test for a form of EPO. He’s been replaced by Charly Wegelius, an adequate and less temperamental substitute. Wegelius and Matthew Lloyd will be two of Evans' most important assistants in the mountains. And let’s not forget Belgian Super Domestiques Johan Vansummeren and Jurgen Van den Broeck, two riders capable of setting searing paces on the flats and ascents respectively.
In the end though, it will all come down to Evans. If he can exploit the other teams’ weaknesses, particularly the potential rivalries within some of those teams (Astana in particular), he can certainly take home his first win. And if he does, he will have accomplished it when all the greatest riders of his generation were present. That’s quite an achievement.
Skil-Shimano
In many ways, Skil-Shimano is like a French team. The Dutch Wild Card team comes to its first Tour with a diverse roster of men hoping to gain exposure and stage wins. Frenchmen Jonathan Hivert and Cyril Lemoine will try for victory on their home turf, while Fumiyuki Beppu seeks to become the first rider from Japan to win a Tour stage. That said, the team's biggest chance for success comes from Kenny Van Hummel. Van Hummel won the Four Days of Dunkirk this year and finished 2nd in last week’s Dutch Championship. It won’t be a surprise if he leaves France with a stage or two and possibly a fat new contract to ride for a Pro Tour team in 2010.
BBox Bouygues Telecom
We would have previewed BBox’s Tour team on Monday, but its roster wasn’t finalized at the time. Like many of its compatriots, BBox comes to the Tour seeking stage glory. Thomas Voeckler still remembers the year he took yellow in the first week and fought savagely to keep the jersey longer than anyone expected. He’s always capable of a similar exploit.
Pierrick Fedrigo won this year’s Dauphiné stage into Briançon. He’s a rider capable of winning from a mountain breakaway, and could be one to watch on Ventoux if a break is given some latitude by the rest of the GC contenders. Laurent Lefèvre and Yuri Trofimov are riders with similar tendencies, while the youthful Pierre Roland has been tipped as the next French climbing sensation. Finally, it should be noted that BBox is one of 2 teams with a Japanese rider as Yukiya Arashiro joins Skil-Shimano’s Fumiyuki Beppu in his attempt to become the first Tour stage winner from Japan.
Caisse d’Epargne
Like BBox, Caisse d’Epargne’s roster wasn’t finished when we went to post, so we’re covering them now.
Caisse d’Epargne comes to the Tour for the first time in recent memory without Alejandro Valverde. That’s not necessarily a bad thing. Not to be harsh, but Valverde has failed to show an ability to succeed in the pressure-cooker of the Tour. He’s much more suited to the hillier classics, shorter stage races, and the Vuelta.
Without him, Caisse d’Epargne will rely on Luis León Sanchez for its GC aspirations; the team might be very pleasantly surprised. León Sanchez has been winning major races for a while now and has only been prevented from full-blown stardom by having to ride for Valverde. Now he has the team fully at his own disposal and could make them forget about Valverde’s absence. He can climb, he can time trial, and he possesses a killer instinct that could see him put a bit of fear in the eyes of the bigger favorites. A Top-10 is a distinct possibility; a Top-5 woul be a surprise to some, but not for us.
León Sanchez has a talented roster of riders behind him including David Arroyo and Ivan Gutiérrez. More importantly, he has the experienced Oscar Pereiro to guide him through the tricky business of leading a team in the biggest race in the world. Overall, it could be a pleasantly surprising July for Caisse d’Epargne—unless your initials are “AV”.
That's it for the first annual Pavé Team-by-Team preview of this year's Tour contenders.
Who did we miss? Where did we over- or under-hype?
Share your comments with the rest of us--and come back tomorrow for more!
Keep coming back for more coverage, predictions, and reactions to events as they unfold at le Grand Boucle. We promise daily coverage of all that happens.
Tomorrow, we'll be making 5 Indefensible Claims about this year's race--be sure to check it out!
Now back to the Preview:
It would be a serious mistake not to consider Andy Schleck a top favorite for this year’s Tour de France. Thanks to Carlos Sastre’s departure and his brother Frank's injury in the Amstel Gold Race, Andy should go into this year’s Tour with the full team at his disposal. Whether he will or not remains a big question as the Tour begins.
Saxo takes the start in Monaco with one of the most well-rounded teams in the race. Lacking only a field sprinter, the team is built for controlling things for whomever it deems its GC leader. Fabian Cancellara, Jens Voigt, Stuart O’Grady, and Kurt-Asle Arvesen are rouleurs who will help Saxo finish near the top of TTT and control things on flatter roads. And speaking of Spartacus, he’s showed tremendous form as of late, winning the Tour de Suisse and the Swiss National Championship--in the road race. Clearly anything but yellow in the Prologue will be a disappointment for Cancellara, and the team will quickly need to decide how long it wishes to defend his maillot jaune. The other three will also have their chances for breakaway stage wins once the GC scene gets a bit more settled; they’ve all had Tour stage success in the past.
The best thing about Saxo’s rouleurs is their ability to set the pace in the mountains. It's not strange to see riders like Cancellara and Voigt riding men off the back of the GC group when things get steep. And if they can’t, Saxo has talent like Gustav Larsson, Chris Anker Sørensen and Nicki Sørensen to help in the mountains. Anker Sørensen’s riding his first Tour, and is a rider to watch for the future.
The wild card is Frank Schleck. His status needs to be assessed quickly so as not to compromise the team’s chances for GC success. If he’s injured, he should be used as a decoy early, attacking when he can to tire the legs of other teams. If healthy and his brother can play off one another in the Alps to try and crack the competition (and hopefully not each other).
All in all, it should be another banner year for Bjarne Rijs and his team. With a talented roster, stage wins should be plentiful. But for the GC it will all come down to the two men with the same last name—and no, we don’t mean the Sørensen’s.
Cadel Evans comes to the Tour a bit more relaxed this year as at least some of the weight of being "Top Favorite" has passed from him to other riders. For Evans, a rider with a penchant for cracking under pressure, this is a very good thing. At least in the early stages, Cadel and his team should ride free of the burden of controlling race, content to sit back and let others set the pace when things matter most. Evans is not as talented as Contador, Armstrong, and maybe even Andy Schleck; he’ll need to be consistent and look to capitalize on his competitors' bad moments--if they have them. That said, he can win this race. Some good TT’s and a well-timed attack or two could put him in yellow. Then the pressure's on to keep it.
More importantly, this year Evans seems to have a team behind him more committed than ever to getting him to Paris on the top step of the podium. Gone are the days of splitting the team between Evans’ GC hopes and Robbie McEwen’s stage and Green Jersey aspirations. Yes, Greg Van Avermaet is there, but he’s a rouleur able to help the team when asked, while still mixing it up for a stage here and there (but not enough to warrant a full complement of riders to form a lead-out train).
Thomas Dekker was planning to take the line hoping to prove the glimpses of talent he’s showed in the past weren’t anomalies. He could have been Evans’ greatest ally when the race hit the mountains. Alas, he’s been left-off the squad (and now fired) following a 2007 positive test for a form of EPO. He’s been replaced by Charly Wegelius, an adequate and less temperamental substitute. Wegelius and Matthew Lloyd will be two of Evans' most important assistants in the mountains. And let’s not forget Belgian Super Domestiques Johan Vansummeren and Jurgen Van den Broeck, two riders capable of setting searing paces on the flats and ascents respectively.
In the end though, it will all come down to Evans. If he can exploit the other teams’ weaknesses, particularly the potential rivalries within some of those teams (Astana in particular), he can certainly take home his first win. And if he does, he will have accomplished it when all the greatest riders of his generation were present. That’s quite an achievement.
In many ways, Skil-Shimano is like a French team. The Dutch Wild Card team comes to its first Tour with a diverse roster of men hoping to gain exposure and stage wins. Frenchmen Jonathan Hivert and Cyril Lemoine will try for victory on their home turf, while Fumiyuki Beppu seeks to become the first rider from Japan to win a Tour stage. That said, the team's biggest chance for success comes from Kenny Van Hummel. Van Hummel won the Four Days of Dunkirk this year and finished 2nd in last week’s Dutch Championship. It won’t be a surprise if he leaves France with a stage or two and possibly a fat new contract to ride for a Pro Tour team in 2010.
We would have previewed BBox’s Tour team on Monday, but its roster wasn’t finalized at the time. Like many of its compatriots, BBox comes to the Tour seeking stage glory. Thomas Voeckler still remembers the year he took yellow in the first week and fought savagely to keep the jersey longer than anyone expected. He’s always capable of a similar exploit.
Pierrick Fedrigo won this year’s Dauphiné stage into Briançon. He’s a rider capable of winning from a mountain breakaway, and could be one to watch on Ventoux if a break is given some latitude by the rest of the GC contenders. Laurent Lefèvre and Yuri Trofimov are riders with similar tendencies, while the youthful Pierre Roland has been tipped as the next French climbing sensation. Finally, it should be noted that BBox is one of 2 teams with a Japanese rider as Yukiya Arashiro joins Skil-Shimano’s Fumiyuki Beppu in his attempt to become the first Tour stage winner from Japan.
Like BBox, Caisse d’Epargne’s roster wasn’t finished when we went to post, so we’re covering them now.
Caisse d’Epargne comes to the Tour for the first time in recent memory without Alejandro Valverde. That’s not necessarily a bad thing. Not to be harsh, but Valverde has failed to show an ability to succeed in the pressure-cooker of the Tour. He’s much more suited to the hillier classics, shorter stage races, and the Vuelta.
Without him, Caisse d’Epargne will rely on Luis León Sanchez for its GC aspirations; the team might be very pleasantly surprised. León Sanchez has been winning major races for a while now and has only been prevented from full-blown stardom by having to ride for Valverde. Now he has the team fully at his own disposal and could make them forget about Valverde’s absence. He can climb, he can time trial, and he possesses a killer instinct that could see him put a bit of fear in the eyes of the bigger favorites. A Top-10 is a distinct possibility; a Top-5 woul be a surprise to some, but not for us.
León Sanchez has a talented roster of riders behind him including David Arroyo and Ivan Gutiérrez. More importantly, he has the experienced Oscar Pereiro to guide him through the tricky business of leading a team in the biggest race in the world. Overall, it could be a pleasantly surprising July for Caisse d’Epargne—unless your initials are “AV”.
That's it for the first annual Pavé Team-by-Team preview of this year's Tour contenders.
Who did we miss? Where did we over- or under-hype?
Share your comments with the rest of us--and come back tomorrow for more!
Monday, June 22, 2009
Monday Musings - Death of a Legend and Suisse Wrap-up
1. I don't like it either. Race reports are smaller. Less photos. Information is scattered and difficult to locate. Don't get me wrong, it's still the go-to site for all our cycling needs, but I can't help the sense I'm beginning to the feel the way I've come to feel about Velonews' new print layout and schedule. The worst part? Apparently they've eliminated their entire history in the process. Wondering who won the 5th stage of the 2001 Paris-Nice? Forget it. This leaves a considerable void; hopefully not for long.
So now where will you go for all the latest news and reports? Share your thoughts in the "Comments" section below.
And does anyone happen to know a good database for cycling records and results? We need one now.
UPDATE: You can access the "old" site by clicking "Full Archive" on the top right menu on the "new" site. Thanks for the tip, Jeremy!
2. In case you missed it, Columbia-Highroad owned the Tour de Suisse, romping to wins in 6 of the race's 9 stages. Even more impressive? They did it with 5 different riders!
And lest we forget, Saxo Bank won the other 3 stages and the GC. Cancellara's win has some folks claiming the race wasn't hard enough. To me, it just shows the effects of a spring more or less "off" for Spartacus.
And no, he's not a GC-rider! Remember the 2006 Hincapie Experiment? Let's learn from our mistakes. That said, if Fabian doesn't take the yellow jersey when the Tour begins on July 4th, it will be huge upset.
3. Did you notice that Frank Schleck didn't start the final stage yesterday? Did you notice Andy Schleck finished 15th? I know everyone's talking about the impending Astana feud, but it will also be interesting to see how the Brothers Schleck interact come Tour-time. Is Frank a step behind Andy, or is he simply timing his form a bit later?
Update: Apparently, Frank's suffering from knee pain following his fall in Amstel. This will be interesting to follow, especially since it will take the pressure off him come July. Don't write him off yet.
4. Roman Kreuzinger did not defend his win in last year's Tour de Suisse, but that's a good thing. Ever-present near the front when the race mattered, Kreuzinger looks all set for a banner July. He can climb and he can time trial (better than most of the the other GC favorites despite the above photo). A top-5 pacing is certainly within his reach, especially if his talented young teammates can rally around him.
5. Just a hunch, but in yet another demonstration of just how beneficial taking the spring "off" can be, put Alessandro Ballan down for the Italian National Championship and a stage in this year's Tour.
6. The TDS also marked the return of Kim Kirchen. A proven contender, Kirchen gives Columbia at least one rider to back for the GC. (But do they need to? Wouldn't winning say, 15 stages, be enough for them?)
7. In tech news--yes, we're not unaware of the technical side of things--Frank Schleck appears to be riding a new Specialized S-Works Tarmac in this photo from the weekend. Maybe it's a new paint job, but now's the time of year when companies begin unveiling their latest and greatest.
That's it for today! Remember to share your comments with the rest of us. Have a great week!
So now where will you go for all the latest news and reports? Share your thoughts in the "Comments" section below.
And does anyone happen to know a good database for cycling records and results? We need one now.
UPDATE: You can access the "old" site by clicking "Full Archive" on the top right menu on the "new" site. Thanks for the tip, Jeremy!
2. In case you missed it, Columbia-Highroad owned the Tour de Suisse, romping to wins in 6 of the race's 9 stages. Even more impressive? They did it with 5 different riders!
And lest we forget, Saxo Bank won the other 3 stages and the GC. Cancellara's win has some folks claiming the race wasn't hard enough. To me, it just shows the effects of a spring more or less "off" for Spartacus.
And no, he's not a GC-rider! Remember the 2006 Hincapie Experiment? Let's learn from our mistakes. That said, if Fabian doesn't take the yellow jersey when the Tour begins on July 4th, it will be huge upset.
3. Did you notice that Frank Schleck didn't start the final stage yesterday? Did you notice Andy Schleck finished 15th? I know everyone's talking about the impending Astana feud, but it will also be interesting to see how the Brothers Schleck interact come Tour-time. Is Frank a step behind Andy, or is he simply timing his form a bit later?
Update: Apparently, Frank's suffering from knee pain following his fall in Amstel. This will be interesting to follow, especially since it will take the pressure off him come July. Don't write him off yet.
4. Roman Kreuzinger did not defend his win in last year's Tour de Suisse, but that's a good thing. Ever-present near the front when the race mattered, Kreuzinger looks all set for a banner July. He can climb and he can time trial (better than most of the the other GC favorites despite the above photo). A top-5 pacing is certainly within his reach, especially if his talented young teammates can rally around him.
5. Just a hunch, but in yet another demonstration of just how beneficial taking the spring "off" can be, put Alessandro Ballan down for the Italian National Championship and a stage in this year's Tour.
6. The TDS also marked the return of Kim Kirchen. A proven contender, Kirchen gives Columbia at least one rider to back for the GC. (But do they need to? Wouldn't winning say, 15 stages, be enough for them?)
7. In tech news--yes, we're not unaware of the technical side of things--Frank Schleck appears to be riding a new Specialized S-Works Tarmac in this photo from the weekend. Maybe it's a new paint job, but now's the time of year when companies begin unveiling their latest and greatest.
That's it for today! Remember to share your comments with the rest of us. Have a great week!
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