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Showing posts with label france. Show all posts
Showing posts with label france. Show all posts
Sunday, April 11, 2010
Saturday, April 10, 2010
Paris-Roubaix - 2010 Predictions
And you thought I’d leave you without a prediction. In fact, I have two:
My heart wants a win for either George Hincapie or Filippo Pozzato, with Hincapie getting the nod because he’s running out of time for it. I want him to win solo, with time to savor the moment. Post-race, we’ll see a long line of defeated men waiting patiently to shake his hand.
Result:
1. George Hincapie
2. Tom Boonen
3. Fabian Cancellara
4. Juan Antonio Flecha
5. Matti Breschel
However, my head thinks the win goes to Juan Antonio Flecha, after taking advantage of a moment of hesitation from Cancellara and Boonen. Boonen will take the sprint for second, but the day will belong to Spain and Team Sky.
Result:
1. Juan Antonio Flecha
2. Tom Boonen
3. Fabian Cancellara
4. Manuel Quinziato
5. George Hincapie
And you? What does your heart feel and head think will be the result of tomorrow’s race? Share your comments, below.
My heart wants a win for either George Hincapie or Filippo Pozzato, with Hincapie getting the nod because he’s running out of time for it. I want him to win solo, with time to savor the moment. Post-race, we’ll see a long line of defeated men waiting patiently to shake his hand.
Result:
1. George Hincapie
2. Tom Boonen
3. Fabian Cancellara
4. Juan Antonio Flecha
5. Matti Breschel
However, my head thinks the win goes to Juan Antonio Flecha, after taking advantage of a moment of hesitation from Cancellara and Boonen. Boonen will take the sprint for second, but the day will belong to Spain and Team Sky.
Result:
1. Juan Antonio Flecha
2. Tom Boonen
3. Fabian Cancellara
4. Manuel Quinziato
5. George Hincapie
And you? What does your heart feel and head think will be the result of tomorrow’s race? Share your comments, below.
Friday, April 9, 2010
2009 Preview to the 2010 edition of Paris-Roubaix
Several times over the past few days I have received comments about my Preview of this year's Paris-Roubaix. The thing is, I haven't posted it yet! I was quite confused until I realized that after last year's race, I had some fun imagining what a 2010 Roubaix Preview might look like. Apparently it's one of the first hits when one Googles "Paris-Roubaix 2010 Preview"--hence the comments.
So to tide you over for my official 2010 Paris-Roubaix Preview (to be published later today or early tomorrow), I thought I would re-post, my 2009 attempt at a Preview of the 2010 Paris-Roubaix.
I hope you enjoy it--please share your comments below.
5-Stones
Tom Boonen - Boonen came into this season with Milan-San Remo as his primary goal. His tire length victory over Mark Cavendish gave him the win he so craved in one of the few Monuments he had left to conquer. Last week at Flanders he looked as though his form is on the decline following weeks at top niveau; but in a race like Roubaix, he still cannot be discounted. Some might say the loss of Devolder will hurt him, but as we saw last year, Roubaix is a race where Tommeke can fend for himself quite well. As long as Quick Step has a rider in the early break to offer support later, Boonen should be fine. As always, luck will be a factor (his opponents' crashes and miscues in 2009 certainly made things a bit easier for him); but in the end, it will come down to just how badly he wants it. If he can display the determination he displayed in San Remo, look for Tom to take the top step for the fourth time.
Fabian Cancellara – Spartacus just can’t catch a break. Last year in Flanders he broke his chain on the Koppenburg, this year he flatted out of the chase group between the Bosberg and the finish line. With O’Grady and Riis’ Viking Horde of dedicated workers, Cancellara is eager to win this race again, thus cementing his place with Boonen in what could become a legendary rivalry.
Filippo Pozzatto – Going into last week's Tour of Flanders, the question regarding Pozzato centered upon whether or not he would try and take the race into his own hands. Last year’s shadowing of Boonen won him the sprint for second, but it did little to help him get him the win. Ironically, this year it was following wheels again that meant the difference for Pippo. The only one able to follow Devolder’s attack up the Muur, Pozzato was more than happy to wait for the sprint where he knew he would make quick work of the Silence rider. This weekend, he stands an even better chance of pulling-off the double in a race that seems to suit him even more. With legions of tifosi lining the course to protect him from those bad Belgian hooligans, Pozzato is primed for victory.
Stijn Devolder – Devolder’s move to Silence might just have paid-off. I’ll admit, I was worried that he might pay the price for letting his ego and his wallet lure him away from the safety of Quick Step. But his performance in last week’s Flanders proves he’s truly Silence’s kopman. While he didn’t win the race, his team worked flawlessly to set him up for his leg-searing attack at the foot of the Muur. Unfortunately, Katusha set-up Pozzato equally well. As domestiques, Hoste and Van Summeren are enough of a team to get Devolder where he needs to be for the win. Throw someone like Sentjens into an early break and you'll have the ingredients for a Devolder victory.
4-Stones
Alessandro Ballan – While still young, as Ballan ages he seems to be losing the explosivity necessary to win on Belgium’s muurs and bergs. However, that doesn’t hinder him in Roubaix, a race of sustained power and endurance. His team is still a bit weak despite the off-season addition of Quinziato. Like many of the other riders, the key for Ballan will be in how he plays off the deeper teams. He’ll need patience and a bit of luck in choosing just which attacks to follow.
Thor Hushvod – The Mighty Thor is out for revenge. He thought he had a second Ghent-Wevelgem in the bag before a stalled motorcycle in the final km led to crash, derailing the peloton’s capture of Flecha’s 2,000-meter suicide breakaway. Thor came-out okay—his lead-out train bore the brunt of the fall—but he’ll certainly be riding with something to prove. As he showed last year, he’s capable of winning this race, should things (including Flecha) fall in his favor.
George Hincapie - For better or worse, we will be subjected to one final year of Versus TV coverage that highlights George Hincapie above all else—the race included. His retirement following this year’s Tour of Missouri will leave Paris-Roubaix without one of its biggest storylines of the past 15 years (at least for English-speaking fans). Could this finally be the year? Columbia added Kevin Ista to bolster the attack, but will it be enough? Burghart and Eisel are there again, but can they be patient for one more year? Time for some box-section alloy rims, George. Your carbon deep-dish wheels seem to make you more flat prone. Pull-out all the stops and give it one more go!
Martijn Maaskant - Maaskant’s move to Rabobank has clearly paid dividends. Having a team of riders capable of supporting him in the big classics made all the difference in his win at the E3 Prijs 2 weeks ago. I still think he’s a year away from a win in Flanders or Roubaix, but he’s certainly capable of succeeding ahead of my schedule. His form is there, his team is solid, and he’s proved adept at learning from his mistakes. Expect big things—if not now, then soon.
Leif Hoste – At first upset by Devolder’s move to Silence, it might turn out to be the best thing that could have happened to Leif. Why? MUCH less pressure. Hoste’s just not strong enough to handle the burden that comes with the status of top favorite. I think he’ll be much better served as a role-playing lieutenant. He could easily find himself in a situation to win the race in a fashion similar to Knaven in 2001. Given a free hand while the other favorites look to Devolder, Hoste might finally bag his big classic win.
3-Stones
Sylvain Chavanel – Devolder’s departure cemented Chava’s place with Quick Step for at least one more year. He’ll get more freedom to play his own odds in race where the competition might mark Boonen too closely. In short, he’s Quick Step’s new Stijn Devolder. In 2009, his late-race exploits showed us all he has the ability to win Roubaix, now he’ll just need the opportunity. If he gets it, don’t be surprised to see the first French winner since Guesdon.
Heinrich Haussler – Haussler still seems to be recovering from the spectacular crash in Stage 3 of the 2009 Vuelta. He shows glimmers of the form that made him the talk of the spring in last year, but I think the top form is still coming. Amstel might be a better chance for him.
Juan Antonio Flecha – Johan Bruyneel has never won at Roubaix. The signing of Flecha proves just how important it might be to him. Flecha’s the king of "too little, too late" as he always seems to miss the move that matters. He broke that streak in Roubaix last year, but crashed in the final 20km. Too eager? Perhaps. But if there’s anyone that can help overcome his nerves and tendency to panic, it’s Bruyneel and Alain Gallopin. Cool under fire, they might prove to be the difference makers for the Spanish Arrow.
2-Stone Outsider
Johan Vansummeren – These two have played the roles of faithful domestiques over the past several seasons. They’re likely to do so again, but don’t rule them out. Hoste’s the new lieutenant at Silence; that could give Van Summeren more latitude. Stranger things have happened!
That’s it for my 2010 Paris-Roubaix Preview! Did I miss someone? Share your thoughts below.
So to tide you over for my official 2010 Paris-Roubaix Preview (to be published later today or early tomorrow), I thought I would re-post, my 2009 attempt at a Preview of the 2010 Paris-Roubaix.
I hope you enjoy it--please share your comments below.
2010 Paris-Roubaix - Preview (Originally Published, April 14, 2009)
5-Stones
Tom Boonen - Boonen came into this season with Milan-San Remo as his primary goal. His tire length victory over Mark Cavendish gave him the win he so craved in one of the few Monuments he had left to conquer. Last week at Flanders he looked as though his form is on the decline following weeks at top niveau; but in a race like Roubaix, he still cannot be discounted. Some might say the loss of Devolder will hurt him, but as we saw last year, Roubaix is a race where Tommeke can fend for himself quite well. As long as Quick Step has a rider in the early break to offer support later, Boonen should be fine. As always, luck will be a factor (his opponents' crashes and miscues in 2009 certainly made things a bit easier for him); but in the end, it will come down to just how badly he wants it. If he can display the determination he displayed in San Remo, look for Tom to take the top step for the fourth time.
Fabian Cancellara – Spartacus just can’t catch a break. Last year in Flanders he broke his chain on the Koppenburg, this year he flatted out of the chase group between the Bosberg and the finish line. With O’Grady and Riis’ Viking Horde of dedicated workers, Cancellara is eager to win this race again, thus cementing his place with Boonen in what could become a legendary rivalry.
Filippo Pozzatto – Going into last week's Tour of Flanders, the question regarding Pozzato centered upon whether or not he would try and take the race into his own hands. Last year’s shadowing of Boonen won him the sprint for second, but it did little to help him get him the win. Ironically, this year it was following wheels again that meant the difference for Pippo. The only one able to follow Devolder’s attack up the Muur, Pozzato was more than happy to wait for the sprint where he knew he would make quick work of the Silence rider. This weekend, he stands an even better chance of pulling-off the double in a race that seems to suit him even more. With legions of tifosi lining the course to protect him from those bad Belgian hooligans, Pozzato is primed for victory.
Stijn Devolder – Devolder’s move to Silence might just have paid-off. I’ll admit, I was worried that he might pay the price for letting his ego and his wallet lure him away from the safety of Quick Step. But his performance in last week’s Flanders proves he’s truly Silence’s kopman. While he didn’t win the race, his team worked flawlessly to set him up for his leg-searing attack at the foot of the Muur. Unfortunately, Katusha set-up Pozzato equally well. As domestiques, Hoste and Van Summeren are enough of a team to get Devolder where he needs to be for the win. Throw someone like Sentjens into an early break and you'll have the ingredients for a Devolder victory.
4-Stones
Alessandro Ballan – While still young, as Ballan ages he seems to be losing the explosivity necessary to win on Belgium’s muurs and bergs. However, that doesn’t hinder him in Roubaix, a race of sustained power and endurance. His team is still a bit weak despite the off-season addition of Quinziato. Like many of the other riders, the key for Ballan will be in how he plays off the deeper teams. He’ll need patience and a bit of luck in choosing just which attacks to follow.
Thor Hushvod – The Mighty Thor is out for revenge. He thought he had a second Ghent-Wevelgem in the bag before a stalled motorcycle in the final km led to crash, derailing the peloton’s capture of Flecha’s 2,000-meter suicide breakaway. Thor came-out okay—his lead-out train bore the brunt of the fall—but he’ll certainly be riding with something to prove. As he showed last year, he’s capable of winning this race, should things (including Flecha) fall in his favor.
George Hincapie - For better or worse, we will be subjected to one final year of Versus TV coverage that highlights George Hincapie above all else—the race included. His retirement following this year’s Tour of Missouri will leave Paris-Roubaix without one of its biggest storylines of the past 15 years (at least for English-speaking fans). Could this finally be the year? Columbia added Kevin Ista to bolster the attack, but will it be enough? Burghart and Eisel are there again, but can they be patient for one more year? Time for some box-section alloy rims, George. Your carbon deep-dish wheels seem to make you more flat prone. Pull-out all the stops and give it one more go!
Martijn Maaskant - Maaskant’s move to Rabobank has clearly paid dividends. Having a team of riders capable of supporting him in the big classics made all the difference in his win at the E3 Prijs 2 weeks ago. I still think he’s a year away from a win in Flanders or Roubaix, but he’s certainly capable of succeeding ahead of my schedule. His form is there, his team is solid, and he’s proved adept at learning from his mistakes. Expect big things—if not now, then soon.
Leif Hoste – At first upset by Devolder’s move to Silence, it might turn out to be the best thing that could have happened to Leif. Why? MUCH less pressure. Hoste’s just not strong enough to handle the burden that comes with the status of top favorite. I think he’ll be much better served as a role-playing lieutenant. He could easily find himself in a situation to win the race in a fashion similar to Knaven in 2001. Given a free hand while the other favorites look to Devolder, Hoste might finally bag his big classic win.
3-Stones
Sylvain Chavanel – Devolder’s departure cemented Chava’s place with Quick Step for at least one more year. He’ll get more freedom to play his own odds in race where the competition might mark Boonen too closely. In short, he’s Quick Step’s new Stijn Devolder. In 2009, his late-race exploits showed us all he has the ability to win Roubaix, now he’ll just need the opportunity. If he gets it, don’t be surprised to see the first French winner since Guesdon.
Heinrich Haussler – Haussler still seems to be recovering from the spectacular crash in Stage 3 of the 2009 Vuelta. He shows glimmers of the form that made him the talk of the spring in last year, but I think the top form is still coming. Amstel might be a better chance for him.
Juan Antonio Flecha – Johan Bruyneel has never won at Roubaix. The signing of Flecha proves just how important it might be to him. Flecha’s the king of "too little, too late" as he always seems to miss the move that matters. He broke that streak in Roubaix last year, but crashed in the final 20km. Too eager? Perhaps. But if there’s anyone that can help overcome his nerves and tendency to panic, it’s Bruyneel and Alain Gallopin. Cool under fire, they might prove to be the difference makers for the Spanish Arrow.
2-Stone Outsider
Johan Vansummeren – These two have played the roles of faithful domestiques over the past several seasons. They’re likely to do so again, but don’t rule them out. Hoste’s the new lieutenant at Silence; that could give Van Summeren more latitude. Stranger things have happened!
That’s it for my 2010 Paris-Roubaix Preview! Did I miss someone? Share your thoughts below.
Friday, March 12, 2010
Weekend Preview - Paris-Nice and Tirreno-Adriatico
This weekend’s main festivities take place in France and Italy with the conclusion of Paris-Nice and the continuation of Tirreno-Adriatico. So far, the racing’s gone more or less as expected in both events: the Spanish are ruling the Race to the Sun and sprinters and breakaways have traded punches in Tirreno.
The current GC in Paris-Nice holds few surprises. Thanks to his peloton-shattering attack on La Croix Neuve in Thursday’s Stage 4 to Mende, the Astana rider leads his compatriot, Alejandro Valverde, by 20 seconds and Liquigas’ Roman Kreuziger by 25. Valverde’s teammate and defending Paris-Nice champion, Luis Leon Sanchez, sits in 4th with Euskaltel’s Samuel Sanchez tucked just behind in 5th. While seemingly indomitable, Contador’s lead is anything but assured. A 20-second deficit is not much, especially when the task of overcoming it lies in the capable hands of Valverde. With Leon Sanchez close to the lead as well, Caisse d’Epargne possesses a numerical advantage over the other favorites; they need to double-team Contador, subjecting him and his relatively weaker Astana team to a constant series of attacks. Throw Roman Kreuziger and Samuel Sanchez into the mix, and Contador’s lead begins to look even shakier—if they all ride aggressively.
Aside from the battle for GC supremacy, Paris-Nice has proven to be the coming-out party for Peter Sagan, Liquigas’ young (he’s 19!) superstar. Pavé’s been talking about Sagan as early as the Tour Down Under, where he impressed the likes of one Mr. Armstrong with several strong performances. With two stage wins this week, he seems to be this year’s revelation—a la Heinrich Haussler and Edvald Boassen Hagen.
And speaking of Haussler, he dropped-out of the race midway through Stage 4—his knee’s still bothering him, apparently. One hopes he can recover in time to do battle in Milan-San Remo and the cobbled classics, the races where he announced his stardom last year.
As for the final two stages, tomorrow’s Stage 6 features 8 categorized climbs including the 1st Category Col de Vence—although its summit lies about 35 kilometers from the uphill finish in Tourettes-sur-Loup. This will be the first chance for Contador’s challengers to earn back some time. Sunday’s final stage features three 1st Category ascents: the Col de la Porte, La Tarbie, and the Col d’Eze. Paris-Nice has been decided on the last day in the past—this year might provide a similar finale.
As for Tirreno-Adriatico, we expected a clash between breakaways, sprints, and the weather. So far, all has progressed as expected with a breakaway succeeding in Stage 1—Milram got another win from Linus Gerdemann—and sprinters finding success in Stages 2 and 3 with Tom Boonen and Daniele Bennati taking the victories. As for the overall, Bennati holds the lead by a mere 4 seconds over Gerdemann and Boonen.
Tomorrow’s stage might produce an exciting arrivo—the last 8 kilometers are quite difficult, with two ascents containing pitches over 15%. Look for a strongman to take the win, possibly a rider like Philippe Gilbert or Filippo Pozzato. Cadel Evans lurks back in 9th-place on GC; a strong finish from him could put BMC atop the podium and into an overall leader’s jersey for the first time this season. Sunday’s Stage 5 offers an interesting finish as well. The line comes 1km after a short, but sharp climb with an average gradient of 15% (it’s steepest section is 20%). This might be an even better day for the men we’ve already mentioned—if their teams can set them up well coming into final 2000 meters.
It looks like we’ll have some tough choices to make Saturday and Sunday with several options for live viewing. Overall, it will be an exciting 2 days of racing, with almost of the favorites ready to shine.
And what about you? What do you expect to see happen this weekend? Share your comments below.
The current GC in Paris-Nice holds few surprises. Thanks to his peloton-shattering attack on La Croix Neuve in Thursday’s Stage 4 to Mende, the Astana rider leads his compatriot, Alejandro Valverde, by 20 seconds and Liquigas’ Roman Kreuziger by 25. Valverde’s teammate and defending Paris-Nice champion, Luis Leon Sanchez, sits in 4th with Euskaltel’s Samuel Sanchez tucked just behind in 5th. While seemingly indomitable, Contador’s lead is anything but assured. A 20-second deficit is not much, especially when the task of overcoming it lies in the capable hands of Valverde. With Leon Sanchez close to the lead as well, Caisse d’Epargne possesses a numerical advantage over the other favorites; they need to double-team Contador, subjecting him and his relatively weaker Astana team to a constant series of attacks. Throw Roman Kreuziger and Samuel Sanchez into the mix, and Contador’s lead begins to look even shakier—if they all ride aggressively.
Aside from the battle for GC supremacy, Paris-Nice has proven to be the coming-out party for Peter Sagan, Liquigas’ young (he’s 19!) superstar. Pavé’s been talking about Sagan as early as the Tour Down Under, where he impressed the likes of one Mr. Armstrong with several strong performances. With two stage wins this week, he seems to be this year’s revelation—a la Heinrich Haussler and Edvald Boassen Hagen.
And speaking of Haussler, he dropped-out of the race midway through Stage 4—his knee’s still bothering him, apparently. One hopes he can recover in time to do battle in Milan-San Remo and the cobbled classics, the races where he announced his stardom last year.
As for the final two stages, tomorrow’s Stage 6 features 8 categorized climbs including the 1st Category Col de Vence—although its summit lies about 35 kilometers from the uphill finish in Tourettes-sur-Loup. This will be the first chance for Contador’s challengers to earn back some time. Sunday’s final stage features three 1st Category ascents: the Col de la Porte, La Tarbie, and the Col d’Eze. Paris-Nice has been decided on the last day in the past—this year might provide a similar finale.
As for Tirreno-Adriatico, we expected a clash between breakaways, sprints, and the weather. So far, all has progressed as expected with a breakaway succeeding in Stage 1—Milram got another win from Linus Gerdemann—and sprinters finding success in Stages 2 and 3 with Tom Boonen and Daniele Bennati taking the victories. As for the overall, Bennati holds the lead by a mere 4 seconds over Gerdemann and Boonen.
Tomorrow’s stage might produce an exciting arrivo—the last 8 kilometers are quite difficult, with two ascents containing pitches over 15%. Look for a strongman to take the win, possibly a rider like Philippe Gilbert or Filippo Pozzato. Cadel Evans lurks back in 9th-place on GC; a strong finish from him could put BMC atop the podium and into an overall leader’s jersey for the first time this season. Sunday’s Stage 5 offers an interesting finish as well. The line comes 1km after a short, but sharp climb with an average gradient of 15% (it’s steepest section is 20%). This might be an even better day for the men we’ve already mentioned—if their teams can set them up well coming into final 2000 meters.
It looks like we’ll have some tough choices to make Saturday and Sunday with several options for live viewing. Overall, it will be an exciting 2 days of racing, with almost of the favorites ready to shine.
And what about you? What do you expect to see happen this weekend? Share your comments below.
Friday, January 29, 2010
No Renaissance for France?
I’m not too proud to admit that I happen to be wrong from time to time. Case in point: during last season’s Tour de France, I did my best to fly the flag for the home team, proclaiming that the 2010 Grand Tour might be the dawn of a renaissance in French cycling. To me, Brice Feillu’s heroic stage win, AG2R’s days in yellow, and Christophe Le Mevel’s top-10 finish, all were signs that the times may be a-changin’ in a nation long-starved for big-time success.
But following yet another lukewarm off-season for the French, I’m starting to second-guess myself. As we enter into 2010, the French status quo has been maintained—at best—but the situation could soon prove to be much, much worse.
First of all, of the 18 Pro Tour teams, only 2 are French. Sure, Pro Tour status doesn’t quite mean what it once did—even Italy only has 2 squads. And yes, there are still 3 French Professional Continental teams (with Agritubel being replaced by Stéphane Heulot’s Saur-Sojasur outfit). But every year it seems that one French team or another needs some kind of Ave Maria just to keep its title sponsor. One year it’s Cofidis, the next it’s BBox, and so on and so forth. Only la Francaise des Jeux seems to have survived the last decade with nary a hint of sponsor dissatisfaction or pullout—a surprising situation when you consider the lack of big wins for Madiot’s boys.
But it’s not only the title sponsors that seem to be growing weary of supporting French squads. Two French teams now have Italian bike sponsors—Bbox and AG2R. True, it’s not the first time: AG2R’s outsourced for years, and Kuota was Agritubel’s bike supplier for two season’s before providing bikes to AG2R in 2010. A big deal? Perhaps not. But something just doesn’t feel right to me about a French team riding a Colnago.
And sponsors aren’t the only ones leaving France for greener pastures—riders are too. France’s best Classics rider—Sylvain Chavanel— already rides for a foreign team—Quick Step. Now the country’s most exciting hope for GC success at the Tour—Brice Feillu—has gone north to Dutch upstarts Vacansoleil. And that French espoir who won the Tour de L’Avenir and the World U23 Road Race, Romain Sicard? He signed a professional contract with Euskaltel. Euskaltel. Clearly something’s wrong when a nation’s best teams can’t even lure its best riders.
Clearly, if there’s any country in need of 1980’s-style Superteam, it’s France. Not a Superteam in the mold of Team Sky or Team HTC-Columbia—multilingual teams comprised of riders from across globe, backed by sponsors with interests straight out of Thomas Friedman’s book The World is Flat. No, France needs a team it can support unequivocally, with French stars riding French bikes for a French sponsor—maybe a Supermarket? Yeah, I like the sound of that.
It could happen, non? Maybe Chavanel grows tired of playing 3rd fiddle behind Boonen and Devolder at Quick Step. Maybe the Feillu Brothers begin regret trading wine and foie gras for tulips and Heineken. After all, when was the last time you heard of someone successfully pulling the anti-Van Gogh, leaving France for career success in the Netherlands?
Am I being too hard on myself and the French? Maybe. But are we indeed witnessing the renaissance of French cycling? Unlikely. Instead, the Dark Ages seem destined to linger a bit—at least until someone comes along with the money and wherewithal to do something about it.
So while the world might be getting flatter for some, if you’re a fan of the French, it’s looks to be all uphill from here.
But following yet another lukewarm off-season for the French, I’m starting to second-guess myself. As we enter into 2010, the French status quo has been maintained—at best—but the situation could soon prove to be much, much worse.
First of all, of the 18 Pro Tour teams, only 2 are French. Sure, Pro Tour status doesn’t quite mean what it once did—even Italy only has 2 squads. And yes, there are still 3 French Professional Continental teams (with Agritubel being replaced by Stéphane Heulot’s Saur-Sojasur outfit). But every year it seems that one French team or another needs some kind of Ave Maria just to keep its title sponsor. One year it’s Cofidis, the next it’s BBox, and so on and so forth. Only la Francaise des Jeux seems to have survived the last decade with nary a hint of sponsor dissatisfaction or pullout—a surprising situation when you consider the lack of big wins for Madiot’s boys.
But it’s not only the title sponsors that seem to be growing weary of supporting French squads. Two French teams now have Italian bike sponsors—Bbox and AG2R. True, it’s not the first time: AG2R’s outsourced for years, and Kuota was Agritubel’s bike supplier for two season’s before providing bikes to AG2R in 2010. A big deal? Perhaps not. But something just doesn’t feel right to me about a French team riding a Colnago.
And sponsors aren’t the only ones leaving France for greener pastures—riders are too. France’s best Classics rider—Sylvain Chavanel— already rides for a foreign team—Quick Step. Now the country’s most exciting hope for GC success at the Tour—Brice Feillu—has gone north to Dutch upstarts Vacansoleil. And that French espoir who won the Tour de L’Avenir and the World U23 Road Race, Romain Sicard? He signed a professional contract with Euskaltel. Euskaltel. Clearly something’s wrong when a nation’s best teams can’t even lure its best riders.
Clearly, if there’s any country in need of 1980’s-style Superteam, it’s France. Not a Superteam in the mold of Team Sky or Team HTC-Columbia—multilingual teams comprised of riders from across globe, backed by sponsors with interests straight out of Thomas Friedman’s book The World is Flat. No, France needs a team it can support unequivocally, with French stars riding French bikes for a French sponsor—maybe a Supermarket? Yeah, I like the sound of that.
It could happen, non? Maybe Chavanel grows tired of playing 3rd fiddle behind Boonen and Devolder at Quick Step. Maybe the Feillu Brothers begin regret trading wine and foie gras for tulips and Heineken. After all, when was the last time you heard of someone successfully pulling the anti-Van Gogh, leaving France for career success in the Netherlands?
Am I being too hard on myself and the French? Maybe. But are we indeed witnessing the renaissance of French cycling? Unlikely. Instead, the Dark Ages seem destined to linger a bit—at least until someone comes along with the money and wherewithal to do something about it.
So while the world might be getting flatter for some, if you’re a fan of the French, it’s looks to be all uphill from here.
Sunday, October 11, 2009
Friday, October 9, 2009
Paris-Tours Preview
It’s mid-October. Leaves are turning, cyclocross is in full swing, and Lance Armstrong's already tweeting about the beer he's drinking. It must be time for France’s fall monument: Paris-Tours. Traditionally known as a sprinter’s classic, Paris-Tours has been known to see its fair share of breakaway winners. In fact, seven of the last ten victors have done so via an escape .
This year’s start list is packed with riders capable of following both the traditional and the contemporary scripts—it will be up to their teams to decide how things ultimately play-out.
So let’s group the most relevant teams according to what could be considered their strategies heading into Sunday’s event. We'll start with the teams “Hoping for a Sprint”:
Garmin –Slipstream is the first team that comes to mind when discussing teams working for a field sprint. Tyler Farrar won two stages and the overall at the Circuit Franco-Belge, and he’s certainly capable of winning his second classic of the year. He’ll have some tough competition from the other sprinters' teams, but if his colleagues can hold things together, he just might deliver the goods. One final note: my list has Will Frischkorn taking the line for what could be his last professional race in the Europe. Does a final suicide breakaway--a la Jacky Durand--beckon? I’ve said it once and I’ll say it again: stranger things have happened.
Along with Garmin, Columbia-HTC—with Andre Greipel—will be the team everyone looks to on Sunday to control the field. They have a deeper team than Garmin with both Boassen Hagen and Tony Martin able to play the role of “dangerous breakaway rider”. If one of these two gets in a move late-race, look for Garmin to assume the pressure to chase, possibly giving Greipel a first class ticket to the line. Furthermore, I still sense some bad blood between Boassen Hagen and Columbia's management; I doubt they’ll work too hard for the young Norwegian--especially at the expense of Greipel.
On paper, Quick Step’s a sprinter's team for Sunday. With Tom Boonen one must imagine the team will be working to deliver him to the line. To me though, the real favorite from Lefevre’s boys comes in the shape of Allan Davis. Davis has been knocking on the door of a big win all season—he just might come through here. If I were driving the car and I thought Boonen’s ego could handle it, I’d get him to lead-out Davis for the win, not vice versa. Otherwise, Sylvain Chavanel will be there to cover dangerous attacks—possibly enabling him to get the win himself. Notice the absence of Stijn Devolder--again--it gets more and conspicuous with each race.
And finally, Milram’s on the line, hoping Gerald Ciolek can score the big win he and the squad have been craving all season. It would be a fitting response to the UCI’s decision to grant the team only a 1-year renewal at the Pro Tour level. If Ciolek takes it, few will be surprised; he's got talent to spare, but a team yet to prove itself able to help him exploit it.
Now let's turn our gaze to those squads “Gunning for a Breakaway”.
Silence-Lotto comes to Paris-Tours brimming with confidence. Cadel Evans just won Worlds, then promptly helped Philippe Gilbert take a well-fought win in the Coppa Sabatini. If Gilbert gets to the line in any sort of selection, look for him to take his team’s second major win in a fortnight. What impressed me most about his Sabatini victory was the fact that he beat 23 other riders to get it—practically a field sprint! Granted, the competition Sunday will be much more fierce, but Gilbert’s clearly in the midst of the best form he’s had in years. And let’s not forget Greg Van Avermaet. He’s riding well and could be ready to step-in should Gilbert’s day not go as planned, particularly in the event of a sprint.
Katusha also comes to the race looking to emerge victorious due to the efforts of its escape artists. Filippo Pozzato’s their clear leader with men such as Mikhail Ignatiev and Sergei Ivanov able to take advantage of opportunities if they arise. Pozzato won the Memorial Cimurri after a strong (maybe too strong?) ride in Mendrisio, but his season’s missed the big win he looked certain to take when it began. Paris-Tours would be a terrific way to end on a high note. And don’t forget, Danilo Napolitano can hold his own in a sprint; he deserves mention should things finish gruppo compatto in Tours.
Another Italian, Lampre's Alessandro Ballan, comes to Paris-Tours also hoping to make-up for a season that fell short of expectations. He has the team and the form to take a win in his second-favorite race that begins in "Paris". If he emerges victorious here, and Damiano Cunego can do his part in Lombardy next week, it will mean a terrific winter for Saronni and his boys.
Rabobank’s another team with several aces up their sleeves: Juan Antonio Flecha, Oscar Freire, and Nick Nuyens to name a few. Yes, Freire’s a sprinter, but I think he and his team will be looking to break things apart, with Flecha and Nuyens the primary protagonists and King Oscar ready pounce from a small to mid-size group. A win Sunday would mark a successful fall for a team noticeably absent from the one-day scene this year. Who would have thought the oranje would win the Giro and Ventoux without winning a classic?
And finally, we have Saxo Bank, a team with many riders able to win from a breakway. With Arvesen, Bak, Breschel, Kroon, Ljungqvist, and O’Grady, this team has to like it’s chances. Attack, attack, and attack some more will the name of the game for Riis’ men, while Juan José Haedo sits-in and awaits a possible field sprint. If forced to pick one, I'd say Arvesen’s the best bet to end the season with a win—perhaps vindication for his early exit from the Tour.
You want Wild Cards?
Vacansoleil brings Borut Borzic hoping he can score a big win in an ASO race. With so many deeper teams, he’ll face long odds. But he did beat several of the other favorites in the Vuelta’s first week, and could certainly repeat the feat here. If he can, it will go a long way toward helping the team earn an invitation to next year’s Tour. As for his teammates, Johnny Hoogerland and Bjorn Leukemans will try their hands in late-race breakaways, while at least one of the team’s other riders will likely be on the front when live coverage begins. Aart Vierhouten anyone?
And speaking of wild cards, we have to mention the French. Agritubel will be hoping for a sprint in which Romain Feillu might just be able to squeak through and surprise the rest. The same can be said for Besson Chaussures and Jimmy Casper. In both cases, a win at Paris-Tours would be a tremendous finalé to their continental seasons—and on home turf, no less.
Cofidis puts its chances on the back of the Belorussian, Alexandre Usov, a sprinter who seems to coming into form at just the right time. Francaise des Jeux will be pinning its hopes on the sprinters Sébastien Chavanel and Yauheni Hutarovich, with former winner Frédéric Guesdon and Anthony Geslin hoping for breakaway success. Like Agritubel and Besson Chaussures, a win Sunday for either of these teams would drive the French crazy.
Overall, note that the strongest teams come to the race with several options—all but resisting my attempt to categorize them. In the end, the winner will most likely come from a team with enough depth and talent to keep the rest guessing when decisions need to be made.
Therefore, Columbia-HTC has to be considered the top overall favorite to take the win. Garmin’s plan is too transparent: keep things together for Farrar; as is Silence-Lotto’s: make the race as difficult as possible to set-up Gilbert. In the end, it could be a star from a less-favored squad—Pozatto, Flecha, Arvesen—that takes the title by virtue of being overlooked.
For my money, I’m going with Greipel to cap another fine season with the win Sunday. Since Zabel’s win in 2003, Paris-Tours has alternated having a sprint winner with a breakaway winner. Gilbert got his victory last year following a last gasp effort to stay clear of the peloton--so this year a sprinter shall reign supreme. Here’s my Top-5:
1. Andre Greipel
2. Tyler Farrar
3. Oscar Freire
4. Alexandre Usov
5. Romain Feillu
And what about you? Who are your picks?
Share your comments below--and enjoy the race!
This year’s start list is packed with riders capable of following both the traditional and the contemporary scripts—it will be up to their teams to decide how things ultimately play-out.
So let’s group the most relevant teams according to what could be considered their strategies heading into Sunday’s event. We'll start with the teams “Hoping for a Sprint”:
Garmin –Slipstream is the first team that comes to mind when discussing teams working for a field sprint. Tyler Farrar won two stages and the overall at the Circuit Franco-Belge, and he’s certainly capable of winning his second classic of the year. He’ll have some tough competition from the other sprinters' teams, but if his colleagues can hold things together, he just might deliver the goods. One final note: my list has Will Frischkorn taking the line for what could be his last professional race in the Europe. Does a final suicide breakaway--a la Jacky Durand--beckon? I’ve said it once and I’ll say it again: stranger things have happened.
Along with Garmin, Columbia-HTC—with Andre Greipel—will be the team everyone looks to on Sunday to control the field. They have a deeper team than Garmin with both Boassen Hagen and Tony Martin able to play the role of “dangerous breakaway rider”. If one of these two gets in a move late-race, look for Garmin to assume the pressure to chase, possibly giving Greipel a first class ticket to the line. Furthermore, I still sense some bad blood between Boassen Hagen and Columbia's management; I doubt they’ll work too hard for the young Norwegian--especially at the expense of Greipel.
On paper, Quick Step’s a sprinter's team for Sunday. With Tom Boonen one must imagine the team will be working to deliver him to the line. To me though, the real favorite from Lefevre’s boys comes in the shape of Allan Davis. Davis has been knocking on the door of a big win all season—he just might come through here. If I were driving the car and I thought Boonen’s ego could handle it, I’d get him to lead-out Davis for the win, not vice versa. Otherwise, Sylvain Chavanel will be there to cover dangerous attacks—possibly enabling him to get the win himself. Notice the absence of Stijn Devolder--again--it gets more and conspicuous with each race.
And finally, Milram’s on the line, hoping Gerald Ciolek can score the big win he and the squad have been craving all season. It would be a fitting response to the UCI’s decision to grant the team only a 1-year renewal at the Pro Tour level. If Ciolek takes it, few will be surprised; he's got talent to spare, but a team yet to prove itself able to help him exploit it.
Now let's turn our gaze to those squads “Gunning for a Breakaway”.
Silence-Lotto comes to Paris-Tours brimming with confidence. Cadel Evans just won Worlds, then promptly helped Philippe Gilbert take a well-fought win in the Coppa Sabatini. If Gilbert gets to the line in any sort of selection, look for him to take his team’s second major win in a fortnight. What impressed me most about his Sabatini victory was the fact that he beat 23 other riders to get it—practically a field sprint! Granted, the competition Sunday will be much more fierce, but Gilbert’s clearly in the midst of the best form he’s had in years. And let’s not forget Greg Van Avermaet. He’s riding well and could be ready to step-in should Gilbert’s day not go as planned, particularly in the event of a sprint.
Katusha also comes to the race looking to emerge victorious due to the efforts of its escape artists. Filippo Pozzato’s their clear leader with men such as Mikhail Ignatiev and Sergei Ivanov able to take advantage of opportunities if they arise. Pozzato won the Memorial Cimurri after a strong (maybe too strong?) ride in Mendrisio, but his season’s missed the big win he looked certain to take when it began. Paris-Tours would be a terrific way to end on a high note. And don’t forget, Danilo Napolitano can hold his own in a sprint; he deserves mention should things finish gruppo compatto in Tours.
Another Italian, Lampre's Alessandro Ballan, comes to Paris-Tours also hoping to make-up for a season that fell short of expectations. He has the team and the form to take a win in his second-favorite race that begins in "Paris". If he emerges victorious here, and Damiano Cunego can do his part in Lombardy next week, it will mean a terrific winter for Saronni and his boys.
Rabobank’s another team with several aces up their sleeves: Juan Antonio Flecha, Oscar Freire, and Nick Nuyens to name a few. Yes, Freire’s a sprinter, but I think he and his team will be looking to break things apart, with Flecha and Nuyens the primary protagonists and King Oscar ready pounce from a small to mid-size group. A win Sunday would mark a successful fall for a team noticeably absent from the one-day scene this year. Who would have thought the oranje would win the Giro and Ventoux without winning a classic?
And finally, we have Saxo Bank, a team with many riders able to win from a breakway. With Arvesen, Bak, Breschel, Kroon, Ljungqvist, and O’Grady, this team has to like it’s chances. Attack, attack, and attack some more will the name of the game for Riis’ men, while Juan José Haedo sits-in and awaits a possible field sprint. If forced to pick one, I'd say Arvesen’s the best bet to end the season with a win—perhaps vindication for his early exit from the Tour.
You want Wild Cards?
Vacansoleil brings Borut Borzic hoping he can score a big win in an ASO race. With so many deeper teams, he’ll face long odds. But he did beat several of the other favorites in the Vuelta’s first week, and could certainly repeat the feat here. If he can, it will go a long way toward helping the team earn an invitation to next year’s Tour. As for his teammates, Johnny Hoogerland and Bjorn Leukemans will try their hands in late-race breakaways, while at least one of the team’s other riders will likely be on the front when live coverage begins. Aart Vierhouten anyone?
And speaking of wild cards, we have to mention the French. Agritubel will be hoping for a sprint in which Romain Feillu might just be able to squeak through and surprise the rest. The same can be said for Besson Chaussures and Jimmy Casper. In both cases, a win at Paris-Tours would be a tremendous finalé to their continental seasons—and on home turf, no less.
Cofidis puts its chances on the back of the Belorussian, Alexandre Usov, a sprinter who seems to coming into form at just the right time. Francaise des Jeux will be pinning its hopes on the sprinters Sébastien Chavanel and Yauheni Hutarovich, with former winner Frédéric Guesdon and Anthony Geslin hoping for breakaway success. Like Agritubel and Besson Chaussures, a win Sunday for either of these teams would drive the French crazy.
Overall, note that the strongest teams come to the race with several options—all but resisting my attempt to categorize them. In the end, the winner will most likely come from a team with enough depth and talent to keep the rest guessing when decisions need to be made.
Therefore, Columbia-HTC has to be considered the top overall favorite to take the win. Garmin’s plan is too transparent: keep things together for Farrar; as is Silence-Lotto’s: make the race as difficult as possible to set-up Gilbert. In the end, it could be a star from a less-favored squad—Pozatto, Flecha, Arvesen—that takes the title by virtue of being overlooked.
For my money, I’m going with Greipel to cap another fine season with the win Sunday. Since Zabel’s win in 2003, Paris-Tours has alternated having a sprint winner with a breakaway winner. Gilbert got his victory last year following a last gasp effort to stay clear of the peloton--so this year a sprinter shall reign supreme. Here’s my Top-5:
1. Andre Greipel
2. Tyler Farrar
3. Oscar Freire
4. Alexandre Usov
5. Romain Feillu
And what about you? Who are your picks?
Share your comments below--and enjoy the race!
Friday, September 18, 2009
Weekend Preview - Vuelta and Isbergues
The Vuelta wraps-up this weekend with a flat 27km time trial around the ancient city of Toledo and the traditional final stage into Madrid.
Friday's Stage 19 was supposed to provide a last chance for GC fireworks with a summit finish in La Granja. Unfortunately, more explosions happened off the back of the lead group than at the front with Robert Gesink succumbing to his injuries from a crash a few days ago--he lost several minutes and now sits in 6th place overall, a whopping 5:30 down.
As for Saturday, look for Alejandro Valverde to hold his lead. The gaps are simply too far to his challengers; he should prove able to keep them at bay. As for the rest of the podium, Cadel Evans could leapfrog Basso and Sanchez to claim 2nd place. If he does, look for the talk to begin of "what could have been" had he not flatted on the stage to Sierra Nevada. As for Sanchez and Basso, neither should be discounted--they've been known to ride a good ITT when it counts.
As for the stage winner, I'm picking Frantisek Rabon to give Columbia-HTC yet another stage win. Greipel should bag them another come Sunday as well.
Moving north, one of my favorite fall races, the Grand Prix d'Isbergues takes place Sunday, with a bevy of French and Benelux teams taking the line. Look for Romain Feillu, Jimmy Casper, Yauheni Hutarovich, and Nick Nuyens to fight it out for the title. Remind me sometime to tell you the story involving me, a hungover mechanic, 7 flat tires, and Geert Van Bondt hanging-on to the side of our team car at about 70kmph--with only two of the car's wheels on asphalt. It happened at Isbergues.
Ah the memories!
What about you? What are you looking forward to this weekend? Any picks?
Share your comments below.
Friday's Stage 19 was supposed to provide a last chance for GC fireworks with a summit finish in La Granja. Unfortunately, more explosions happened off the back of the lead group than at the front with Robert Gesink succumbing to his injuries from a crash a few days ago--he lost several minutes and now sits in 6th place overall, a whopping 5:30 down.
As for Saturday, look for Alejandro Valverde to hold his lead. The gaps are simply too far to his challengers; he should prove able to keep them at bay. As for the rest of the podium, Cadel Evans could leapfrog Basso and Sanchez to claim 2nd place. If he does, look for the talk to begin of "what could have been" had he not flatted on the stage to Sierra Nevada. As for Sanchez and Basso, neither should be discounted--they've been known to ride a good ITT when it counts.
As for the stage winner, I'm picking Frantisek Rabon to give Columbia-HTC yet another stage win. Greipel should bag them another come Sunday as well.
Moving north, one of my favorite fall races, the Grand Prix d'Isbergues takes place Sunday, with a bevy of French and Benelux teams taking the line. Look for Romain Feillu, Jimmy Casper, Yauheni Hutarovich, and Nick Nuyens to fight it out for the title. Remind me sometime to tell you the story involving me, a hungover mechanic, 7 flat tires, and Geert Van Bondt hanging-on to the side of our team car at about 70kmph--with only two of the car's wheels on asphalt. It happened at Isbergues.
Ah the memories!
What about you? What are you looking forward to this weekend? Any picks?
Share your comments below.
Sunday, June 14, 2009
Dauphiné Final Stage - Live Stream
For live video coverage of today's final stage of the Dauphiné, click here.
Thursday, June 11, 2009
Dauphiné Stage 5 - Live Stream of Mont Ventoux Summit Finish
For live video coverage of today's Stage 5 (finishing atop Mont Ventoux) of the Dauphiné, click here.
Tuesday, May 5, 2009
Paris-Roubaix - 2009 Junior Race Video
If you haven't stumbled upon it yet, be sure to check-out the website of the VC Roubaix Cycling Team and Club. VC Roubaix offers lots of opportunities in the Roubaix region for riders and fans of all levels. In fact, next year they'll be running another Paris-Roubaix Cyclosportif event in early June. Road trip!
Today I thought I'd share with you a video from the site documenting this year's Paris-Roubaix for Juniors. Run on the same day as the pros, the race takes in about 120km and 29km of pavé.
The video's in French, but it showcases some great amateur and behind-the-scenes camera work. I especially love the footage filmed while driving through the crowds lining the roadside.
Could one of these young men be atop the podium a decade from now? Only time will tell.
Enjoy!
Today I thought I'd share with you a video from the site documenting this year's Paris-Roubaix for Juniors. Run on the same day as the pros, the race takes in about 120km and 29km of pavé.
The video's in French, but it showcases some great amateur and behind-the-scenes camera work. I especially love the footage filmed while driving through the crowds lining the roadside.
Could one of these young men be atop the podium a decade from now? Only time will tell.
Enjoy!
Tuesday, April 14, 2009
Paris-Roubaix - 2010 Preview
By now, you’ve read everything there is to read about Sunday’s Paris-Roubaix. Personally, I was just glad to see one of my predictions finally come to fruition. Also, is it just me, or does Johan Van Summeren remind you of Wilfred Peeters? Too bad for him that Leif Hoste is far from Johan Museeuw.
So rather than rehash the past, let's get an early jump on predicting next year’s winners by peering into the Pavé Crystal Ball to see the favorites for the 2010 Paris-Roubaix.
(Cue screen blur and harp music)
5-Stones
Tom Boonen - Boonen came into this season with Milan-San Remo as his primary goal. His tire length victory over Mark Cavendish gave him the win he so craved in one of the few Monuments he had left to conquer. Last week at Flanders he looked as though his form is on the decline following weeks at top niveau; but in a race like Roubaix, he still cannot be discounted. Some might say the loss of Devolder will hurt him, but as we saw last year, Roubaix is a race where Tommeke can fend for himself quite well. As long as Quick Step has a rider in the early break to offer support later, Boonen should be fine. As always, luck will be a factor (his opponents' crashes and miscues in 2009 certainly made things a bit easier for him); but in the end, it will come down to just how badly he wants it. If he can display the determination he displayed in San Remo, look for Tom to take the top step for the fourth time.
Fabian Cancellara – Spartacus just can’t catch a break. Last year in Flanders he broke his chain on the Koppenburg, this year he flatted out of the chase group between the Bosberg and the finish line. With O’Grady and Riis’ Viking Horde of dedicated workers, Cancellara is eager to win this race again, thus cementing his place with Boonen in what could become a legendary rivalry.
Filippo Pozzatto – Going into last week's Tour of Flanders, the question regarding Pozzato centered upon whether or not he would try and take the race into his own hands. Last year’s shadowing of Boonen won him the sprint for second, but it did little to help him get him the win. Ironically, this year it was following wheels again that meant the difference for Pippo. The only one able to follow Devolder’s attack up the Muur, Pozzato was more than happy to wait for the sprint where he knew he would make quick work of the Silence rider. This weekend, he stands an even better chance of pulling-off the double in a race that seems to suit him even more. With legions of tifosi lining the course to protect him from those bad Belgian hooligans, Pozzato is primed for victory.
Stijn Devolder – Devolder’s move to Silence might just have paid-off. I’ll admit, I was worried that he might pay the price for letting his ego and his wallet lure him away from the safety of Quick Step. But his performance in last week’s Flanders proves he’s truly Silence’s kopman. While he didn’t win the race, his team worked flawlessly to set him up for his leg-searing attack at the foot of the Muur. Unfortunately, Katusha set-up Pozzato equally well. As domestiques, Hoste and Van Summeren are enough of a team to get Devolder where he needs to be for the win. Throw someone like Sentjens into an early break and you'll have the ingredients for a Devolder victory.
4-Stones
Alessandro Ballan – While still young, as Ballan ages he seems to be losing the explosivity necessary to win on Belgium’s muurs and bergs. However, that doesn’t hinder him in Roubaix, a race of sustained power and endurance. His team is still a bit weak despite the off-season addition of Quinziato. Like many of the other riders, the key for Ballan will be in how he plays off the deeper teams. He’ll need patience and a bit of luck in choosing just which attacks to follow.
Thor Hushvod – The Mighty Thor is out for revenge. He thought he had a second Ghent-Wevelgem in the bag before a stalled motorcycle in the final km led to crash, derailing the peloton’s capture of Flecha’s 2,000-meter suicide breakaway. Thor came-out okay—his lead-out train bore the brunt of the fall—but he’ll certainly be riding with something to prove. As he showed last year, he’s capable of winning this race, should things (including Flecha) fall in his favor.
George Hincapie - For better or worse, we will be subjected to one final year of Versus TV coverage that highlights George Hincapie above all else—the race included. His retirement following this year’s Tour of Missouri will leave Paris-Roubaix without one of its biggest storylines of the past 15 years (at least for English-speaking fans). Could this finally be the year? Columbia added Kevin Ista to bolster the attack, but will it be enough? Burghart and Eisel are there again, but can they be patient for one more year? Time for some box-section alloy rims, George. Your carbon deep-dish wheels seem to make you more flat prone. Pull-out all the stops and give it one more go!
Martijn Maaskant - Maaskant’s move to Rabobank has clearly paid dividends. Having a team of riders capable of supporting him in the big classics made all the difference in his win at the E3 Prijs 2 weeks ago. I still think he’s a year away from a win in Flanders or Roubaix, but he’s certainly capable of succeeding ahead of my schedule. His form is there, his team is solid, and he’s proved adept at learning from his mistakes. Expect big things—if not now, then soon.
Leif Hoste – At first upset by Devolder’s move to Silence, it might turn out to be the best thing that could have happened to Leif. Why? MUCH less pressure. Hoste’s just not strong enough to handle the burden that comes with the status of top favorite. I think he’ll be much better served as a role-playing lieutenant. He could easily find himself in a situation to win the race in a fashion similar to Knaven in 2001. Given a free hand while the other favorites look to Devolder, Hoste might finally bag his big classic win.
3-Stones
Sylvain Chavanel – Devolder’s departure cemented Chava’s place with Quick Step for at least one more year. He’ll get more freedom to play his own odds in race where the competition might mark Boonen too closely. In short, he’s Quick Step’s new Stijn Devolder. In 2009, his late-race exploits showed us all he has the ability to win Roubaix, now he’ll just need the opportunity. If he gets it, don’t be surprised to see the first French winner since Guesdon.
Heinrich Haussler – Haussler still seems to be recovering from the spectacular crash in Stage 3 of the 2009 Vuelta. He shows glimmers of the form that made him the talk of the spring in last year, but I think the top form is still coming. Amstel might be a better chance for him.
Juan Antonio Flecha – Johan Bruyneel has never won at Roubaix. The signing of Flecha proves just how important it might be to him. Flecha’s the king of "too little, too late" as he always seems to miss the move that matters. He broke that streak in Roubaix last year, but crashed in the final 20km. Too eager? Perhaps. But if there’s anyone that can help overcome his nerves and tendency to panic, it’s Bruyneel and Alain Gallopin. Cool under fire, they might prove to be the difference makers for the Spanish Arrow.
2-Stone Outsider
Johan Van Summeren – These two have played the roles of faithful domestiques over the past several seasons. They’re likely to do so again, but don’t rule them out. Hoste’s the new lieutenant at Silence; that could give Van Summeren more latitude. Stranger things have happened!
That’s it for my 2010 Paris-Roubaix Preview! Did I miss someone? Share your thoughts below.
So rather than rehash the past, let's get an early jump on predicting next year’s winners by peering into the Pavé Crystal Ball to see the favorites for the 2010 Paris-Roubaix.
(Cue screen blur and harp music)
2010 Paris-Roubaix - Preview
5-Stones
Tom Boonen - Boonen came into this season with Milan-San Remo as his primary goal. His tire length victory over Mark Cavendish gave him the win he so craved in one of the few Monuments he had left to conquer. Last week at Flanders he looked as though his form is on the decline following weeks at top niveau; but in a race like Roubaix, he still cannot be discounted. Some might say the loss of Devolder will hurt him, but as we saw last year, Roubaix is a race where Tommeke can fend for himself quite well. As long as Quick Step has a rider in the early break to offer support later, Boonen should be fine. As always, luck will be a factor (his opponents' crashes and miscues in 2009 certainly made things a bit easier for him); but in the end, it will come down to just how badly he wants it. If he can display the determination he displayed in San Remo, look for Tom to take the top step for the fourth time.
Fabian Cancellara – Spartacus just can’t catch a break. Last year in Flanders he broke his chain on the Koppenburg, this year he flatted out of the chase group between the Bosberg and the finish line. With O’Grady and Riis’ Viking Horde of dedicated workers, Cancellara is eager to win this race again, thus cementing his place with Boonen in what could become a legendary rivalry.
Filippo Pozzatto – Going into last week's Tour of Flanders, the question regarding Pozzato centered upon whether or not he would try and take the race into his own hands. Last year’s shadowing of Boonen won him the sprint for second, but it did little to help him get him the win. Ironically, this year it was following wheels again that meant the difference for Pippo. The only one able to follow Devolder’s attack up the Muur, Pozzato was more than happy to wait for the sprint where he knew he would make quick work of the Silence rider. This weekend, he stands an even better chance of pulling-off the double in a race that seems to suit him even more. With legions of tifosi lining the course to protect him from those bad Belgian hooligans, Pozzato is primed for victory.
Stijn Devolder – Devolder’s move to Silence might just have paid-off. I’ll admit, I was worried that he might pay the price for letting his ego and his wallet lure him away from the safety of Quick Step. But his performance in last week’s Flanders proves he’s truly Silence’s kopman. While he didn’t win the race, his team worked flawlessly to set him up for his leg-searing attack at the foot of the Muur. Unfortunately, Katusha set-up Pozzato equally well. As domestiques, Hoste and Van Summeren are enough of a team to get Devolder where he needs to be for the win. Throw someone like Sentjens into an early break and you'll have the ingredients for a Devolder victory.
4-Stones
Alessandro Ballan – While still young, as Ballan ages he seems to be losing the explosivity necessary to win on Belgium’s muurs and bergs. However, that doesn’t hinder him in Roubaix, a race of sustained power and endurance. His team is still a bit weak despite the off-season addition of Quinziato. Like many of the other riders, the key for Ballan will be in how he plays off the deeper teams. He’ll need patience and a bit of luck in choosing just which attacks to follow.
Thor Hushvod – The Mighty Thor is out for revenge. He thought he had a second Ghent-Wevelgem in the bag before a stalled motorcycle in the final km led to crash, derailing the peloton’s capture of Flecha’s 2,000-meter suicide breakaway. Thor came-out okay—his lead-out train bore the brunt of the fall—but he’ll certainly be riding with something to prove. As he showed last year, he’s capable of winning this race, should things (including Flecha) fall in his favor.
George Hincapie - For better or worse, we will be subjected to one final year of Versus TV coverage that highlights George Hincapie above all else—the race included. His retirement following this year’s Tour of Missouri will leave Paris-Roubaix without one of its biggest storylines of the past 15 years (at least for English-speaking fans). Could this finally be the year? Columbia added Kevin Ista to bolster the attack, but will it be enough? Burghart and Eisel are there again, but can they be patient for one more year? Time for some box-section alloy rims, George. Your carbon deep-dish wheels seem to make you more flat prone. Pull-out all the stops and give it one more go!
Martijn Maaskant - Maaskant’s move to Rabobank has clearly paid dividends. Having a team of riders capable of supporting him in the big classics made all the difference in his win at the E3 Prijs 2 weeks ago. I still think he’s a year away from a win in Flanders or Roubaix, but he’s certainly capable of succeeding ahead of my schedule. His form is there, his team is solid, and he’s proved adept at learning from his mistakes. Expect big things—if not now, then soon.
Leif Hoste – At first upset by Devolder’s move to Silence, it might turn out to be the best thing that could have happened to Leif. Why? MUCH less pressure. Hoste’s just not strong enough to handle the burden that comes with the status of top favorite. I think he’ll be much better served as a role-playing lieutenant. He could easily find himself in a situation to win the race in a fashion similar to Knaven in 2001. Given a free hand while the other favorites look to Devolder, Hoste might finally bag his big classic win.
3-Stones
Sylvain Chavanel – Devolder’s departure cemented Chava’s place with Quick Step for at least one more year. He’ll get more freedom to play his own odds in race where the competition might mark Boonen too closely. In short, he’s Quick Step’s new Stijn Devolder. In 2009, his late-race exploits showed us all he has the ability to win Roubaix, now he’ll just need the opportunity. If he gets it, don’t be surprised to see the first French winner since Guesdon.
Heinrich Haussler – Haussler still seems to be recovering from the spectacular crash in Stage 3 of the 2009 Vuelta. He shows glimmers of the form that made him the talk of the spring in last year, but I think the top form is still coming. Amstel might be a better chance for him.
Juan Antonio Flecha – Johan Bruyneel has never won at Roubaix. The signing of Flecha proves just how important it might be to him. Flecha’s the king of "too little, too late" as he always seems to miss the move that matters. He broke that streak in Roubaix last year, but crashed in the final 20km. Too eager? Perhaps. But if there’s anyone that can help overcome his nerves and tendency to panic, it’s Bruyneel and Alain Gallopin. Cool under fire, they might prove to be the difference makers for the Spanish Arrow.
2-Stone Outsider
Johan Van Summeren – These two have played the roles of faithful domestiques over the past several seasons. They’re likely to do so again, but don’t rule them out. Hoste’s the new lieutenant at Silence; that could give Van Summeren more latitude. Stranger things have happened!
That’s it for my 2010 Paris-Roubaix Preview! Did I miss someone? Share your thoughts below.
Sunday, April 12, 2009
Paris-Roubaix - Live Stream
Saturday, April 11, 2009
Paris-Roubaix - Preview
Tomorrow’s the day we’ve all been waiting for: the “Queen” of the classics, Paris-Roubaix. A 260km race with over 50 km of pave in the final 160km, Roubaix is truly the one classic every rider dreams of having the talent, power, and luck necessary to win.
This year, the weather is forecast to be dry and sunny, conditions similar to last year’s event. However, the race should still be anything but uneventful; Roubaix always offers a spectacle!
This year, several favorites will take the line despite the absence of two of the race’s recent winners: Stuart O’Grady and Alessandro Ballan.
In honor of the occasion, and the first-ever Pavé Preview of the race that made cobblestones famous in the first place, I’m unveiling a new way of ranking my riders to watch.
Allez! Allez!
5-Stones:
Tom Boonen – As we saw last year, Tommeke is not one to be overshadowed during the week that traditionally marks the high point of his season. Yes, he’ll be marked by probably every rider in the race (including his own teammates). Yes, he’s under an incredible amount of pressure. Yes, he’s on a team containing no less than 3 riders capable of winning. These factors alone combine to make Tom a less-than-ideal candidate for the win. But let’s face it folks, he’s far and away the most powerful rider in the peloton at the moment. He also rides for the strongest team. Oh, and he’s won this race twice already. Finally, and perhaps most importantly, he’s got something to prove to an entire country who thinks he’s not its best cyclist anymore. Add it all up, and you have to set Boonen apart from the rest; he’s my only 5-Stone Favorite.
4-Stones:
Filippo Pozzato – I might be overrating him, but I think Pippo has at least enough left in his tank to be there at the end. If he gets to the velodrome with the lead group he could give his Italian fans reason to celebrate. A key for Pozzato will be his team. Can his colleagues keep him well-positioned and out of harm’s way? Another key: will he attack more than he did last Sunday? Yes, he launched a few assaults on Boonen, but for most part he seemed tentative and unsure of his ability to ride away from the Tornado. Personally, I think the best way to crack Boonen is to put him on the defensive, particularly if his own teammates begin to feel they have better legs than he does. If I were Pozatto, I’d attack Boonen before he’s isolated, forcing his team to decide whom they wish to protect. The resulting hesitation--or better yet--in-fighting among the Quick Steppers might be enough to launch him to the win.
George Hincapie – George is a sentimental favorite here for many reasons. His team says it is 100% devoted to getting him the win. Riders like Eisel and Burghart are powerful domestiques capable of shielding him well into the race’s later stages. The key here is just going to be George himself, specifically, his form and his luck. Will he stay upright? Will he make the right tactical decisions? Will his steerer tube stay intact? Roubaix is the one race more than any other where luck can make or break you. Will this be George’s year?
Stijn Devolder – He’s not shy about his goals—he wants to win the double. Frankly, I thought he’d take more of the company line following his win last weekend. However, it appears that Stijn wants more. Boonen can’t be pleased. Devolder’s never really shown an aptitude for the Roubaix; his best finish (18th) was last year in a race where he spent most of the day working for Boonen. That said, he was with the leaders up to the final selection and launched a few leg-blowing attacks to set things up for his captain. Will he be so willing to do the same this year? Or will he play his cards closer to his chest in the hopes taking the win himself?
Leif Hoste – Last week I said that Silence-Lotto might be a week too early for a big win. Hoste’s the man I had in mind. If things bounce his way Sunday, he could be just the rider to profit from a Boonen-Pozzato-Devolder-Hincapie stalemate. If his team puts the right riders in the right moves to give him some help up the road when the field thins, this maid could finally become a bride.
Fabian Cancellara – Yes, he’s been sick and had some bad luck, but I think that might play in Spartacus' favor. He’ll be fresh, and no one quite knows for certain just where his form lies. He also does well in the dry, sunny weather. Mark my words, Cancellara will be a factor.
3-Stones:
Sylvain Chavanel - Could we see yet another 1-2-3 victory for Lefevre's boys? If so, look for Chavanel to get the low spot on the podium pole. For him to win, he'll have to profit from his team's tactics--similar to Devolder last week. Wouldn't the French just love to have another winner from their own country? He rides for a Belgian team, but a win's a win.
Juan Antonio Flecha – It would be nice to see Flecha actually launch an attack before 4 or 5 other riders have gone up the road. If he’s in a position to do so then he could become Spain’s first winner.
Martijn Maaskant – Only Hincapie winning would make me happier than seeing Maaskant live up to the hype he’s received after his finishes in Flanders and Roubaix last year and Flanders last weekend. To be honest though, I just don’t think he has the team to help him pull it off. He’ll need to choose the right wheels to follow and hope to profit from the work of the better, deeper teams. For more on this, read Ryan’s post over at The Service Course following Flanders last week.
Heinrich Haussler – Not much to say here other than the fact that he might have peaked a bit too soon. Yes, he was second in Flanders, but he was never really a factor at the point when the race could still be won. Not to say he couldn’t finally get it together and get a big win, I just think HH will have to wait until next year for his big Classic.
2-Stone Outsiders:
Nick Nuyens – If Flecha doesn’t get in his way, Nick’s capable of pulling-away for a big win in a race such as this.
Frederic Guesdon – He’s old, he’s wily, and he’s won this race before. Maybe he gets in an early break and just slowly sneaks away. You never know, right?
Manuel Quinziato – He’s obviously peaking—watch the Flanders replay for proof. While the win might be a bit out of reach, he could certainly play a role.
Bjorn Leukemans – Another rider who might be well-served by getting in an early break with a rouleur or two capable winning. Maybe these 4 riders should just look for one another early?
No matter what happens, the race will certainly make for good watching. I’ll do my best to post a reliable live stream source as soon as I find one. Unfortunately, due to the holiday, I might not get to watch the live finale myself. I’ll just have to wait for Vs. later in the day.
That’s all for now. Have a great holiday if you’re celebrating. Feel free to share your favorites with us.
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