Monday Musette - Special Wednesday Edition

With so much going on this week, I thought a special edition of the Musette was in order.  Here we go:

1. Tyler Farrar won today’s Scheldeprijs, continuing the fine form he’s displayed so far during this year’s Belgian Classics. It’s Farrar’s second win of the season following his victory in Stage 3a of the 3-Days of DePanne. More importantly, it’s the young American’s fifth major top-10 result on Belgian soil this season following his 3rd-place finish in the Omloop Het Nieuwsblad, 9th-place in Ghent-Wevelgem, and 5th-place in the Tour of Flanders. All Tyler needs now is a solid finish in Sunday’s Paris-Roubaix to cap a fantastic spring for the Garmin rider. With Roubaix being a race known to favor the strong and powerful, Farrar’s streak might not be over.

As for the race itself, it pretty much went as expected. Filippo Pozzato was a last-minute addition to the start list; he finished in one of the front groups along with several other favorites for the Hell of the North on Sunday. Tom Boonen did hit the deck with about 37km to go, but was able to rejoin the leaders with enough time left to still finish 18th. I was a bit surprised to see Andre Greipel finish so poorly—especially after his team (and his mouth) worked so hard to position himself for the win.

2. Lost in the hoopla surrounding Sunday’s Tour of Flanders was an interesting Tweet from George Hincapie following some criticism he received from a fan via a comment at Podium Cafe.

First this:

Then this:

Not too sure if any of it's earth-shattering, but I find it interesting that the line between riders and fans grows increasingly thin thanks to sites like Twitter.

3. And speaking of George, check this out from his first year at Roubaix. Tears for Gears is a terrific site for fans of the 1990’s--it’s helping me getting over throwing away my old copies of Winning Magazine.

4. In case you missed it, here's this again:

Free online screen recorder

5. The Tour of the Basque Country is underway, and all signs point to the controversial Alejandro Valverde having a terrific Ardennes campaign. Oscar Freire and Garmin’s young squad seem poised for some nice results as well. Freire currently leads the GC, but tomorrow’s “Queen” stage looks certain to shake things up. Stay-tuned.

6. Speaking of Pais Vasco, Francesco Gavazzi won today’s stage for Lampre, a squad in an uncomfortable spot thanks to some doping products found in the home of Lorenzo Bernucci. According to Bernucci, the products belong to his wife and brother. Sure they do, Lorenzo.

Some are already talking about Lampre being booted from the Tour—could Vacansoleil finally get its chance?

7. And last, but not least, I did a fantastic ride this past weekend called the Hell of Hunterdon. If you happen to live near Philadelphia, you need to participate in next year’s edition (or for that matter, in this year’s edition of its sister-event, the Fool’s Classic). Just over 76 miles in length, the ride includes about 12 miles (18 sections) of some of New Jersey’s finest unpaved and gravel roads—like L’Eroica, but without the wine, costumes, and vintage bikes. If you plan on doing Battenkill next year, you’re a fool if you don’t ride the HoH as training.

The ride’s organization was smooth and efficient, and free beer and pizza were offered to all finishers. While I was a guest of the organizer, the registration fee was nominal for such a wonderful day—especially for those who pre-registered. Better still, of the 100 or so people registered in advance, 28 of them won raffle prizes from companies including Lazer, Belgum Budder, and Classic Cycling Essentials. Be sure to bookmark the event’s website, and add it to your calendar for next spring.

8. And by the way, I'm looking for a pair of 700x23 Vittoria Open Tubular CX's with black rubber and tan/skin sidewalls. 

I've also been inspired by a recent Twitter conversation to track down some Briko Stingers or Zens. 

Drop me a line at paveblog@gmail.com if you think you can help me out.

Have a great Wednesday--our Paris-Roubaix coverage begins tomorrow! 

Monday Musette - Valverde, Oman, Algarve, and 2 Great Videos

1. This weekend I learned a valuable lesson: never bet against Alejandro Valverde (unless it's July). 

"It’s February," I thought. 

"He’s saving his best for later in the year," I assumed. 

"The competition is more motivated than he is," I predicted. 

I was wrong on all counts—with the lone exception being yesterday's super-motivated stage winner, Francesco Masciarelli. My pre-race favorite, Johnny Hoogerland, finished the race in a respectable 4th-place overall—9 seconds behind the winner. The other favorites finished about where we expected: Vino, Gesink, and Danielson all finished inside the top-15. But in the end, it was Valverde who punched his victory card a bit earlier than we might be used to, thus cementing his status as the World’s most dangerous man in every race that's not cobbled or the Tour.

2. Two stages of the Tour of Oman have come and gone, and things are running as we expected: sprinters have won the first two stages and Edvald Boassen Hagen has taken the overall lead. It was nice to see Jimmy Casper continuing Saur-Sojasun’s optimistic start to the season with a Stage 1 victory. Kudos as well to Daniele Bennati—he and Chichi seem to be one of the sport’s most-formidable sprint duos at this point the season. Here’s hoping they can keep it up once they return to Europe.

3. The early season stage races continue this week in Portugal with the Vuelta Algarve, a race with quite an interesting start list. Algarve marks the first appearance of many of the favorites for this year’s Grand Tours including Astana’s Alberto Contador, Radio Shack’s Levi Leipheimer, and Garmin’s Christian Vande Velde. Several of the sport’s best one-day men will also be using Algarve to continue their slow builds to April including Stijn Devolder, Sylvain Chavanel, Geert Steegmans, Samuel Sanchez, Sergei Ivanov, Nick Nuyens, Thor Hushovd, and Heinrich Haussler. And don’t forget the sprinters—they’re here too led by Robbie McEwan, Andre Greipel, and Julien Dean. There are also several wild cards, talented men hoping Algarve will present them with chances to take their first win of the season while the stars collect their kilometers. Of these, Geoffroy Laquatre, Ryder Hesjedal, David Zabriskie, Joaquin Rodriguez, Lars Boom, Luis Leon Sanchez, Sandy Casar, Manuel Cardoso, and Bjorn Leukemans come quickly to mind.

In the end, look for a rider talented enough to finish well in the sprints and do well in the final stage’s ITT to take the overall win. I’ll go out on a limb and pick Thor for the overall victory—he’s sure to finish well on the flatter stages and the relatively short ITT suits his strengths.  

4. There were some great cyclocross races this weekend as well—but you’ll have to come back for Erik’s Cross Report and Power Rankings to hear more about those.

Away from the racing scene we have several other goodies—including some great videos.

5. My friend Fxdwhl at lockring.not.included posted a series of excerpts from the great Merckx-era documentary, Stars and Watercarriers. Of all the scenes Fxdwl includes, this one is my favorite. It’s got it all: a funky “recovery device”, an overly demonstrative Italian soigneur, scenes from mealtime—with separate tables for riders and staff, and of course, mechanics taping bars and gluing tires. In a word, it’s perfect. (Sessa, Geert, and Kepa: I miss you, guys.)

6. Let's jump from 1973 to 2001, and scenes from the USPS team car at Paris-Roubaix (I believe this comes via the Road to Paris documentary.  I enjoy this one for many reasons, but here are 3 of the best: it’s Paris-Roubaix in rough weather; it’s the one and only year that Mercury got an invite; and it forever answers the question as to who really ran the USPS team (if there were ever any doubts).

7. And while we’re on the subject of the 2001 Paris-Roubaix, check-out this terrific picture of Wilfred Peeters and his short-lived bid for Roubaix glory. Notice the front wheel--does it look familiar? Well, let’s just say it wasn’t standard-issue for Domo back then—heck, it wasn’t even "standard-issue" for Mercury. But that’s a long story for another day…

Enjoy your week!

Sunday Preview - Faron, Oman, and Vorselaar

Sunday, Sunday, Sunday! We’re still at a point in the season where the schedule bounces around a bit from one week to another. This weekend’s action occurs mainly on Sunday with one stage race ending, another beginning, and a Belgian cyclocross finale to the Superprestige. Let’s take a look:

Fotoreporter Sirotti

We begin in France where today’s Stage 4 of the Tour de Med was neutralized due to bad weather after 114km of racing with Cofidis’ Julien El Fares being declared the “winner”. Tomorrow’s showdown on the slopes of Mont Faron is threatened as well—here’s hoping the weather improves as the stage looked certain to produce some of the most exciting racing we’ve seen thus far this young season. Should the race occur unaltered, look for fireworks from the 3 strongest men still capable of taking the overall: Alejandro Valverde, Johnny Hoogerland, and Alexandre Vinokourov. Valverde and Hoogerland lie a mere 10 seconds behind FDJ’s Jussi Veikkanen, with Vino a further 7 seconds back. In the finalé, FDJ will be hard-pressed to hold down the bastille, as all 3 men possess the explosivity necessary for success on the 1st Category climb to the finish. While Valverde and Vino will be tough to beat, I’ll stick to my original prediction: Hoogerland will take it by a narrow margin. If he’s smart he’ll offer Vino the stage win in exchange for some solidarity against Valverde—his 7-second cushion offers him the wiggle room he needs to do so. Hopefully the weather will let us see what happens.

Heading farther South, weather won’t be a problem at the Tour of Oman, Eddy Merckx’s new venture. The majority of teams and riders from the Tour of Qatar have stuck around, undoubtedly drawn to the abundant sunshine and high temperatures. They better live it up though; there’s nowhere to hide after Friday when everything heads back north. As for this week, while the terrain in Oman is a bit more “diverse” than Qatar, the race is still essentially a sprinter’s paradise, aside from an 18km time trial on the final day. Look for the traditional fast men to rule the first 5 stages, with perhaps one long breakaway finding success should the sprinters’ teams feel generous. Boonen and Chicchi got the better of the rest in Qatar; Farrar, Cooke, and Napolitano will be looking for some form of revenge. In the end, Edvald Boasson Hagen should take overall the win. He showed an ability to sprint with best in Qatar and the ITT on the final day will certainly put him heads and shoulders above the rest of the competition—it’s an ideal situation for Team Sky’s first GC victory of 2010.

Finally, we head back north to Belgium and the final round of the Superprestige in Vorselaar. Sven Nys needs a miracle to take the overall title—he’ll have to win with both Niels Albert and Zdenek Stybar finishing well behind him. Stybar and Albert will certainly be eying one another closely—they’re tied for the overall lead with the spoils going to whoever crosses the line first. In the end, their game of cat and mouse could play right into Nys’ hands, perhaps giving him the leeway he’ll need to ride with a victory on the day. And the overall title? Well, stranger things have happened.

Fotoreporter Sirotti

As always, enjoy the racing—hopefully the weather wherever you reside is allowing you a ride or two as well. Please share your comments and predictions with the rest of as comments below.

Monday Musette - Beloki, Blogs, Kites, and Kits

Following the long weekend, there's a veritable cornucopia of things to enjoy! Let's jump right in:

1. Here's a great piece on the now legendary Armstrong-Across-Field/Beloki-Across-Asphalt moment from the 2003 Tour from the Freeman Transport blog. Selman's last point is spot-on: rest assured that Armstrong already knows the profiles of the key stages as well as he knows the lyrics to the new Heartless Bastards album. (Thanks to JD for pointing this one out to us.)

2. And speaking of Jeremy Dunn, did you catch his piece over at Bicycling's Sitting In? Go have a read; Jeremy's always got something good to say. After a trip to a local cross race yesterday, I'm thinking I might just have to get me a place on that bandwagon before the wheels fall off.

3. If you have nothing to do on December 20 and happen to find yourself in Philadelphia, you might want to consider coming to the 4th Annual Bilenky Cycle Works Urban Junk Yard Cyclocross race. Here are some pics from last year.

4. Some interesting bits from Cyclingnews today. First, Alejandro Valverde has officially announced that he's focusing on the Tour de France in 2010. Seriously? Yes, AJ, you won the Vuelta--finally. But the Tour's another ball of jamon. Don't waste your energy on a race you won't win; instead, set your sights on victory in just about any other race you enter (as long it doesn't have cobbles).

Confirmation also came that this year's Belgian TDF wunderkind, Jurgen Van den Broeck, has re-upped for another 2 years with Silence/Omega Pharma-Lotto. What do you think? Is VDB2 the real deal? Or will Lotto spend the next 2 years wishing they never let Cadel Evans leave?

And then there's the Giro's attempt to bring the start of the 2012 race to Washington D.C.--not sure what I think about that one. Long transfers are one thing, but a 6-hour time difference? That said, Robin Morton's g4 Productions group is leading the charge; if anyone could pull-off such an ambitious venture, it would be Robin. What about you? What obstacles do you see? What kind of effect do you think it would have?

4. Moving to the blogosphere, Red Kite Prayer's in-form right now. Several posts over the past week illustrate the talents of Padraig and his crew. Furthermore, they're adding a kit and a Twitter feed to the mix. One will cost you a little, while the other is free; but both are worth your time.
5. And finally, I can't mention kit without making another plug of my own. The design's complete, pricing is set, and the order form is here. The only thing missing is you!

Have a great week--and keep those comments coming!

Weekend Preview - Vuelta and Isbergues

The Vuelta wraps-up this weekend with a flat 27km time trial around the ancient city of Toledo and the traditional final stage into Madrid.

Friday's Stage 19 was supposed to provide a last chance for GC fireworks with a summit finish in La Granja. Unfortunately, more explosions happened off the back of the lead group than at the front with Robert Gesink succumbing to his injuries from a crash a few days ago--he lost several minutes and now sits in 6th place overall, a whopping 5:30 down.

As for Saturday, look for Alejandro Valverde to hold his lead. The gaps are simply too far to his challengers; he should prove able to keep them at bay. As for the rest of the podium, Cadel Evans could leapfrog Basso and Sanchez to claim 2nd place. If he does, look for the talk to begin of "what could have been" had he not flatted on the stage to Sierra Nevada. As for Sanchez and Basso, neither should be discounted--they've been known to ride a good ITT when it counts.

As for the stage winner, I'm picking Frantisek Rabon to give Columbia-HTC yet another stage win. Greipel should bag them another come Sunday as well.

Moving north, one of my favorite fall races, the Grand Prix d'Isbergues takes place Sunday, with a bevy of French and Benelux teams taking the line. Look for Romain Feillu, Jimmy Casper, Yauheni Hutarovich, and Nick Nuyens to fight it out for the title. Remind me sometime to tell you the story involving me, a hungover mechanic, 7 flat tires, and Geert Van Bondt hanging-on to the side of our team car at about 70kmph--with only two of the car's wheels on asphalt. It happened at Isbergues.

Ah the memories!

What about you? What are you looking forward to this weekend? Any picks?

Share your comments below.

Vuelta d'Espana Midpoint Report

Well, the Vuelta has about reached it’s midpoint, providing us with a good chance to look back over our pre-race predictions. If you recall, we divided this year’s participants into 4 groups according to what their attitudes and goals might be heading into this year’s final Grand Tour. We labeled them Redeemers, Builders, Asserters, and Seekers depending upon whether they are: a)redeeming themselves for an unfulfilling season; b) building form for later in the fall; c) asserting themselves as a legitimate contender in their given area; or d) seeking a new or better contract for next year.

As per usual, we’ve hit the target on several occasions (with others still to be determined), while missing horribly on others. Keeping in mind there’s still 10 days left to race, let’s see how we're doing, beginning with The Redeemers.

We presented Cadel Evans and Alejandro Valverde as both seeking some redemption at this year’s Vuelta. So far, so good as they sit in 2nd and 1st place respectively on GC with only 7 seconds separating them. With several exciting days remaining, the pending dual between these two talents might be one of the season’s finest.

Kim Kirchen came to the Vuelta for redemption as well—too bad he’s already dropped-out due to what have been described as “intestinal problems”. Clearly, this has not been the season Kirchen was banking upon. Maybe the environment at Katusha will give him a fresh start?

While the Redeemers came to the race seeking immediate redemption, several of the Builders hope to find the form they’ll need to get it a bit later on. Case in point: Tom Boonen’s been close to a stage win on several occasions, but he still seems to lack the last-second burst he needs to win. Time will tell if Tommeke’s season will end on a high note, but one can only hope the kilometers he’s logging now will reap rewards in October.

On the other hand, Damiano Cunego, another of our “Builders”, seems to be doing quite nicely. He won the Stage 9 summit finish and currently sits in 7th place overall. If he keeps it up, he’ll be the overwhelming favorite at Worlds and Lombardy--if he doesn't go too deep in Spain. His compatriot Alessandro Ballan has had a quiet Vuelta so far, one can only guess how he’ll be later in the season. Maybe he works for Cunego at Worlds?

And finally, Fabian Cancellara stormed to wins in both Vuelta ITT’s and is the clear favorite to win the World Title on his home turf.

As for the Asserters, Andre Greipel has clearly cemented himself among the world’s finest field sprinters by winning 2 stages and wearing the Gold Jersey for a few days. Furthermore, he’s staying with Columbia-HTC for 2010, thus ensuring that perhaps the strongest challenger to Mark Cavendish’s sprint throne stays home.

The first draft of today’s post mentioned Tyler Farrar as someone who fell short of our forecast. However, the young American finally broke through today, winning Stage 12. It caps a fantastic year for the Garmin rider, one which saw him progress steadily through the ranks of the world’s best field sprinters. Another win or two certainly wouldn’t be a surprise, firmly planting Tyler—along with Greipel—as one of the best in the world.

Samuel Sanchez was hoping to assert himself as perhaps Spain’s second-best Grand Tour rider. He currently sits in 6th place overall, about 1 minute down on the leaders. That’s a bit of a deficit, but it's one Sanchez is clearly capable of overcoming given the right circumstances. The Vuelta’s been won and lost in the final week before; Sanchez could still pull it off.

On the other hand, Andy Schleck’s Vuelta ended on Sunday when he abandoned about 90km into Stage 8 with stomach cramps. I expected more from both him and his brother (who abandoned today to have season-ending knee surgery). That said, Andy won Liege-Bastogne-Liege and finished 2nd in the Tour. A rest is clearly in order following what has been a long, but successful season.

An astute reader asked why I forgot to mention Robert Gesink among the Asserters. Clearly he was right, as young Robert’s currently sitting in 3rd place on GC. With several mountain stages still to come, Gesink could give the Dutch a well-deserved Grand Tour victory.

And finally we have the Seekers, and what a good group they’ve proved to be.

Ivan Basso and Tom Danielson have consistently ridden with the leaders, currently occupying 5th and 4th place on GC. Basso’s been reported to remain with Liquigas next season, while Danielson’s name has been absent from most transfer talk. That said, a solid Vuelta for both might just lead to some greener pastures for these two talented men.

Simon Gerrans has already claimed what he sought, winning Stage 10 into Murcia. He's now won stages in all 3 Grand Tours and will surely command a hefty salary for next season. My money’s on SKY getting his name on the dotted line.

And finally, there’s Chris Horner, a man we mentioned as possibly vying for the win. Unfortunately, Horner’s run of bad luck has continued, with a first week crash taking him from the race before it really even began. It’s clearly been a tough season for Chris.

So let’s see: that’s 7 stages and 6 of the Top-10 on GC for men we mentioned before the race. Not too shabby! Although the others might be sending us some hate mail for jinxing their chances.

What about you? What are your thoughts on the first half of the race? Share your comments below.

Vuelta d'Espana Preview

It’s back to school time, so that means it’s time for the annual 3-week party known as the Vuelta d'Espana. Seriously, I remember hearing of fights among team personnel over who would get to work the race—it’s that much fun.

For the riders though, it’s a bit of a different story, especially for those coming to the race with ambitions of one sort of another. Looking over the latest start list in fact, it’s pretty easy to sort the riders into categories based upon their expectations and hopes for this year's race. Let's take a stab at it.

Redeemers
The Redeemers come to the race hoping to salvage their seasons. Maybe they were injured and missed a big race or two, maybe they were suspended and are trying to return to their former glory days, or maybe they just spent the season searching for form that never came. Regardless, these men come to this year’s Vuelta hoping to erase the past with a win in the year’s final Grand Tour.

1. Cadel Evans tops the list of Redeemers this year. An utter disappointment at the Tour de France (a race he was expected by many to win), Cadel comes to the start in Rotterdam looking to win his first Grand Tour. Silence-Lotto has given him a solid team capable of getting him where he needs to be for the victory, but it will be all up to Cadel to keep his head in the race against some fierce competition. When he’s on his game, he’s a force to be reckoned with; but when he’s not he races with the temperament of a pubescent teenager. He better take advantage now, in what could be his last real shot for Grand Tour glory.

2. Alejandro Valverde makes his 2009 Grand Tour debut at a race he would most certainly love to win for his home fans. He wasn’t allowed to start the Tour this year due to his Italian racing ban, and his team appears to be eager to sign one of his fiercest rivals, fellow Spaniard Alberto Contador. A win by Valverde might convince his management that Albie’s not worth the extra millions, a poor outing might just put the nail in his Valverde's Grand Tour coffin. For my money, I’m hoping Valverde makes this his last attempt at Grand Tour greatness; he’s much more suited to the Ardennes Classics and shorter stages races. Can you imagine how he would do were he to focus exclusively on those?

3. Remember last year when Kim Kirchen won Flèche-Wallone and then spent a week or two making everyone think he could win the Tour? Seems long ago, doesn’t it? Yes, he was injured for the better part of the season, but he’s better now and has enough racing in his legs to warrant consideration here. His situation isn’t nearly as critical as Evans’ or Valverde’s, but he certainly could use a good result to remind everyone of just how talented he is—or was.

4. And of course, one cannot forget Alexandre Vinokourov, whose need for redemption needs no explanation.

Other candidates: Philipe Gilbert, FDJ, Euskaltel-Euskadi

Builders
The Builders come to the Vuelta hoping to build form for the season’s final month, namely the World Championships, Paris-Tours, and the Tour of Lombardy. Most of these riders can’t logically claim to have ambitions for the GC; they’ll be looking for stage wins and opportunities to test their legs against their peers. In many cases, these men are also seeking redemption, using the Vuelta to help them find it in the season’s waning moments. A bit risky perhaps, but a stage win or two along the way never hurts, no?

1. Tom Boonen might also be considered a Redeemer in the sense that his Tour de France was an entirely lackluster affair. He started the season well with his usually impressive Classics campaign. Then the wheels fell-off when Tommeke tested positive—again—for cocaine—again. His team fought for and won the right to bring Tom to the Tour where he spent more time flatting and falling than sprinting and winning. He then announced he would ride the Vuelta in the hopes of reminding everyone that he’s one of the top sprinters in the world--and to gain some form for World’s. If can build the fitness he needs for a big win later, while winning several stages, he might just kill two birds with one stone. If he can’t, his fans will spend the off-season wondering what could have been instead of celebrating what was.

2. Like Boonen, Damiano Cunego comes to Spain hoping to build the form he needs to make everyone forget what’s been a pretty disappointing season so far. He failed to score a Spring Classic win and was nowhere close to being a factor in his beloved Giro. Perhaps more so than Boonen, the Worlds parcours actually suits Cunego’s strengths though, and now without Danilo “It’s A Conspiracy” Di Luca in the picture, he might have a team entirely dedicated to helping him get it. Cunego needs to ride smart, treating the Vuelta strictly as training, lest he risk doing too much too soon. Sure, he can go for a stage win now and again, but he cannot do so if it means burning too many of the matches he’ll need for success at Mendrisio and Lombardy.

3. Alessandro Ballan would like to defend his World Title; unfortunately, he might find the course and the competition a bit too much for his talents. That said, there’s always Paris-Tours, a race much more suited to his skills. The Vuelta will help him get where he needs to be. Fabian Cancellara would also like another World Title in the ITT. He’s racing for his home fans at Mendrisio, and the Vuelta will provide just the training he needs to ensure they don’t go home disappointed.

Others: Bjorne Leukemans, Lars Boom, Oscar Freire, and Carlos Barredo

Asserters
The Asserters come the Vuelta hoping to prove that they warrant the hype they've been given at point or another. They could be a young sprinter hoping to show everyone they deserve to be considered one of the World’s fastest, or an all-round rider looking to make the jump from weeklong race contender to Grand Tour favorite. To them, the Vuelta is a chance to assert themselves as deserving a place at the top of the sport.

1. Andre Griepel was pretty disappointed to have been left-off his team’s roster for the Tour. He comes to the Vuelta hoping to re-assert himself as one of the world’s fastest sprinters. In doing so, he might simultaneously build some form for a race like Paris-Tours and earn himself a fat new contract for 2010—either with Columbia or someone else.

2. Along with Edvald Boassen Hagen, Tyler Farrar was perhaps August’s most successful rider. He comes to the Vuelta looking for a Grand Tour breakthrough. He’s already beaten just about everyone he’ll be competing against in Spain, now he just needs everything to fall into place. His confidence is brimming, his team is dedicated to helping him win, and all that’s left is for him to make it happen. I think he will—several times.

3. Samuel Sanchez comes to the race wearing race number 1. His only task is to end the 3-week race at the same place on GC. He has a team that will certainly be motivated to help him win their home tour and draw attention from the scandal surrounding them after July’s Tour. Frankly though, I don’t see Sanchez as a rider capable of winning a Grand Tour. Like Valverde, he might be suited to hillier classics and weeklong stages races of the Paris-Nice/Pais Vasco sort. Should he prove me wrong though, he will have convincingly asserted himself as one of the world’s finest.

4. And finally, there’s Andy Schleck. Does Andy need to assert himself as one of the world’s best Grand Tour riders? Absolutely not. That said, he’s finished on the podium in both the Giro and the Tour now, and a win at the Vuelta would assert his status as perhaps the greatest threat to Alberto Contador in the years to come. If I were Andy, I would love to go into the off-season with a Grand Tour win under my belt, thus fueling the fire for an impending re-match with Contador in next year’s Tour.

Other Candidates: Roman Kreuziger, Rinaldo Nocentini, Ignatas Konovalovas, Allan Davis, and Fuji-Servetto

Seekers
To put it simply, the Seekers come to the race looking for one thing: a contract for next year. September marks the beginning of the official transfer period as well as the start of the stagiaire audition season. A good ride in Spain can make the difference between a good contract and a bad one, or in extreme cases, no contract at all.

1. Ivan Basso needs the Vuelta to remind everyone—and his potential suitors—that he still has what it takes to win a Grand Tour. His return at the Giro was positive, but it did little to strike fear into the hearts of his rivals. A win or solid placing in Spain might convince a team that Basso’s best days are not behind him. A bad race, and Team Radio Shack might be able to change a digit or two in their latest offer.

2. Simon Gerrans will certainly have offers for next season; the Vuelta will just give him a opportunity to make them as high as he wants them to be. A stage win in Spain and he’ll have bagged one in all 3 Grand Tours—in 2 seasons, no less. The race might also give him a chance to show what he can do on GC; his team contains no threat to his leadership should he choose to go that route.

3. As we mentioned earlier, Tom Danielson finally looks to be worthy of at least some of the hype surrounding him during his Pro Tour career. A good Vuelta will solidify his place on someone’s team next season—maybe even Garmin. A bad race, and he could be looking for work back home on a team hoping to make him their leader for Redlands. (Now I'm sounding like Bobby Julich.)

4. If I were to make a list of Indefensible Claims for this year’s Vuelta, I’d pick Chris Horner to win. Like Gerrans, he’ll have no problem finding a team next year—especially if he decides to follow Lance. But Chris is a wily veteran, and his inclusion on Astana’s Vuelta team shows me that he’s willing to go it alone to prove to anyone watching that he’s got talent. With Alain Gallopin (the man responsible for bringing Chris to FDJ way back when) driving the car, Chris could pull-off the result of his life, giving him the right to demand more dinero from Team Lance or elsewhere.

Other Seekers: Kurt-Asle Arvesen, Matti Breschel, Michael Albasini, Xacobeo Galicia, and Contempolis-AMPO

That said, here are my predictions for this year’s Vuelta Top-5:

1. Andy Schleck
2. Roman Kreuziger
3. Cadel Evans
4. Alejandro Valverde
5. Chris Horner

What about you? Who are your Redeemers, Builders, Asserters, and Seekers for this year’s race? Share your comments below.

Monday Musings - Dauphiné Wrap-up, Suisse Begins, and the Dope Show

1. We're in the thick of the Pre-Tour build-up races and this past week's Dauphiné-Libéré didn't disappoint. Let's back our way down the final GC:

--Alejandro Valverde won another Dauphiné thanks to a superb effort on Mont Ventoux. Given his pending absence from the Tour's start list and a possible worldwide ban, one couldn't help but wonder if this might have been Valverde's last hurrah for a year or two. In my opinion, assuming he's not suspended from competition anywhere other than Italy, missing the Tour might just be the best thing for him. Why? Well, having won the Dauphiné in such fashion, Valverde and his entourage can now boast about "what might have been”, without having to face the reality of his inevitable French collapse. At this rate, Valverde and his team should hope for the best regarding a possible worldwide ban, then put all his remaining eggs in the Vuelta/World’s basket later this year.

--Cadel Evans rode yet another consistent race to yet another 2nd place. Does Evans’ style remind anyone else of Jan Ullrich? I might be alone on this one, but I’m just not convinced that Cadel has the stuff to win the Tour, namely, he doesn't have the acceleration to match the pure climbers, and he can’t time trial well enough to put the time he needs into the likes of other GC contenders—namely, Alberto Contador.

--Speaking of Alberto, he could be bluffing, but the Spaniard seems to be on track for another July victory. He was clearly riding within himself throughout the week, seemingly gauging his efforts on those of his rivals. This might not be such a big deal were it not for the fact that he rides for Johan Bruyneel, a director known for the perfect timing his riders’ performances.

--Robert Gesink rode well in the mountains to ultimately finish 4th. His role in the Tour will be interesting considering the presence of Denis Menchov. Actually, Menchov’s might take some pressure off the squirrelly climber, ultimately launching him to what could prove to be the best Dutch GC placing in years.

--Liquigas better start saving it’s money. Vincenzo Nibali rode with the favorites all week—both against the clock and when the race went uphill. In doing so, he’s become Italy’s newest GC-darling. With Roman Kreuzinger well-placed for a repeat-win in the Tour de Suisse, there will be plenty of suitors ready to over-pay for their services in 2010. With Franco Pellizotti coming to France following his 3rd place in the Giro, Liquigas will have—on paper at least—one of the race’s most dynamic line-ups. A Top-5 finish is not out of the realm of possibility for these two in what could turn-out to be the last time they enter a stage race without the pressure of being mentioned with the major favorites.

--David Millar rode himself to a 9th place finish, consistently placing well in both the time trials and the mountains. But hold-on before you start dusting-off your Union Jack—Millar is not a GC contender at the Tour. To me, his Dauphiné showing puts him on track for a transitional stage win, and maybe for a good showing in the Prologue (if he starts early and Cancellara gets a flat or is rained-on). That's it.

--It was heartening to see David Moncoutie and Pierrick Fedrigo win stages in the Alps. They’ll be carrying their nation’s hopes for a stage win in the Tour along with Thomas Voeckler and Sebastien Joly. Look for one of these four to win the French Championship in 2 weeks.

--And finally, how about BMC’s Brent Bookwalter? While his overall placing wasn’t too impressive, he rode at the front all week, and certainly turned some heads at key points in the race. Could a Pro Tour ride be in his future?

--One general thought before moving-on: if you by any chance caught the Versus coverage of yesterday’s stage, you surely saw at least one of the network’s “Can Anything Stop Lance” TDF commercials. Here’s a bigger question: can anything stop Versus from failing to acknowledge the 179 other riders competing in this year’s race? Yes, Lance’s return offers a fascinating sub-plot, but will Evans, Contador, Sastre, and the Schleck’s be reduced to the role of supporting characters in another Lance love-fest? Hopefully, Versus will get it right once the race begins.

2. The Tour de Suisse is under way with the final set of July contenders testing their legs. Roman Kreuzinger and the Schleck brothers have the most to prove, perhaps more so against the clock than in the mountains. All three will need to improve significantly in the time trial in order to have a real hope of challenging the other big favorites. Sunday’s final stage offers a 39km test around Bern. While the overall might be decided by then, it will be interesting to see the times these three can produce. I’m also eager to see the return of Christian Vande Velde as he seeks the last bit of form he’ll need to prove his Tour last year wasn’t a fluke. And don't forget Lars Boom. I'll peg him now for the win in the final TT; anything more than that and someone might make him a non-CX offer he can't refuse. We’ll do our best over the coming days to keep you aware of live streams when available.

3. A new feature went up last week on Rapha's Features page. It's a terrific run-down of what to expect from next month's Etape du Tour finishing atop Mont Ventoux. Regardless of whether you're riding the Etape or not, it's a terrific article with wonderful writing and photography. Read it here.

4. And now some doping! By now you’ve read at least one article about Bernhard Kohl’s L’Equipe interview and the UCI’s bio-diabolical passport program. If you haven’t, you should go here and here.

While I won’t re-hash what’s already been said, I will make one point. Kohl’s assertion that the UCI passport gives riders extra information which enables them to dope more effectively seems to support a contention I’ve held for quite some time: for every 1 dollar/Euro that goes into the research and development of methods to fight doping (in any sport), there are at least 2 dollars/Euro’s going into the research and development of ways to continue to do it without getting caught.

At some point, maybe we should just go back to the days of urine testing for amphetamines and anabolic steroids. Besides, the UCI doesn’t seem to be overly concerned about handling positive tests on a consistent basis anyway, leaving it to the national federations and teams to make the choices that it—the UCI—is too afraid to make on its own.

5. Things that make you go "Hmmm...": Check-out this photo of Cadel Evans climbing Ventoux. I could be wrong, but doesn't that look like a Powertap Computer on his handlebar? Do you see a Powertap rear hub? Would someone like to share how this is possible? I'm sure there's an explanation out there somewhere; I just have yet to read it.

UPDATE from an anonymous reader: "Cadel is using a CycleOps Cervo -- he can swap in and out his PowerTap wheel whenever he likes because of its Ant+ compatibility."

You can read more here.

6. Finally, some scary writing and photography in the "Good Wheels Gone Bad" department for fans of Mavic's R-Sys wheels. Ben Delaney from Velonews writes here about the explosion of his front Mavic R-Sys wheel. (Yes, he was riding it at the time.) Scary stuff indeed.

On that note, enjoy your week!

Monday Musings - Boonen Etc...

As I’m sure you’ve heard, Boonen’s tested positive—again—for cocaine—again. For now he’s been suspended indefinitely by Quick Step and will most likely miss his second consecutive Tour. Of course, we here at Pave hope for the best in this case, but it’s tough to see how he’s going to talk his way out of it this time. First time, shame on you Tommeke; second time, shame on…um…Quick Step? The UCI? Us? And the third time? Hopefully Tom has a good team of advisors to help him through this both publically and privately. April won’t be the same without him, but he’s running out of second (and third and fourth) chances.

Here's what else is on our minds as the week begins:

1. Alejandro Valverde has been given a 2-year suspension by an Italian tribunal for his alleged role in Operation Puerto. Is anyone else confused? This seems to me like the state of Massachusetts banning Alex Rodriguez from playing baseball within state lines, no? For Valverde, it means no racing in Italy—which means no Tour de France since it passes through. If anyone could offer a clear explanation of the different jurisdictions of the different agencies and countries I’m sure we would all be very appreciative. I can't make heads or tails of this one.

2. Hopefully you’ve been enjoying the Rapha Continental’s Road Journal as much as I have. This is quite a comprehensive and inspirational project that Daniel and Slate have put together, and it’s wonderful to follow them along their journey. Next week’s my chance to lead them on a foray around Central Pennsylvania. Ridelugged’s James and I have mapped the route, checked it twice, and are ready for our turn. On Saturday I logged 90 miles to get my legs ready for the guys—they’ve effectively been riding 10-day blocks of rides averaging 100+ miles. Hopefully I’ll have the stamina to at least make it sporting. When the photos are released, I’ll be the guy at the back hanging onto the car.

http://www.rapha.cc/mississippi-delta

3. For your own chance to ride with the Continental posse, you can sign-up for a Gentleman’s Ride they’re hosting in the DC-area on Friday, May 22nd. If you can take the day off, it will certainly be worth your while. $125 gets you a ticket to ride, food (and drink), and some sweet Rapha gear. Learn more here.


4. The Giro began this past weekend, and it looks to be quite an exciting race. For me, the biggest excitement has come from the developing rivalry between Columbia and Garmin. Before the Stage 1 TTT, Marky-Mark Cavendish once again proved that his sprint prowress is matched only by his ability to run his mouth, saying that Garmin disrespects the Giro by focusing “only” on the TTT. I think we all expected the drama to end with Garmin romping to the win the next day and sticking it to Cavvie by donning the pink jersey. But darn it if the little sprint pixie didn’t put his team’s money where his mouth was. Apparently Garmin was so disappointed that they didn’t even stick around for the end of the stage or to talk to the press (not that there was really any reason too).

Sunday’s stage saw Garmin at the front of the race in the final few kilometers, obviously hoping to help Tyler Farrar beat Cavendish at his own game. Petacchi had something to say about it though. Maybe next year we’ll see more riders on the start line at the Scheldeprijs hoping to hone their sprint form for the Giro.

But here's my question for Cavendish: does he disrespect races by abandoning as soon as the road gets steep? Hmmm...

5. And speaking of the Giro, we’re not ignoring it. We’re just taking the piano, piano approach and slowly building our way into form.

But I'll leave you with a Giro prediction: a classics rider will win tomorrow's Stage 4, and I think it will be Philipe Gilbert.

Enjoy your day!