For a few minutes today, it looked as if David Arroyo just might have retained his maglia rosa as the leader of the 2010 Giro d’Italia. After the descent of the Mortirolo, he sat less than a minute behind a 3-man breakaway containing Ivan Basso, Vincenzo Nibali, and Michele Scarponi. Unfortunately, the wheels fell off for the Spaniard on the final ascent to Aprica; he lost over three minutes to the leading trio—and the maglia rosa.
The race now heads into its final weekend with Ivan Basso as overall leader. Arroyo sits second and Nibali third, at 0:51 and 2:30 respectively. Only Scarponi remains within shouting distance of the podium, 2:49 behind Basso. Cadel Evans, Carlos Sastre, and Alexandre Vinokourov all sit over 4-minutes from the lead.
Saturday’s stage appears to be the hardest of this year’s race—and quite possibly one of the hardest days of racing this season. The riders face 5 categorized climbs during a 178-kilometer day that ends with a 12-kilomter climb up the Passo Tonale—the 5th summit finish the race has seen this week. But the Tonale’s not the worst part of Saturday’s stage; the infamous Gavia is the penultimate climb of the day—and the highest point of this year’s race.
Liquigas did itself a favor by taking the pink jersey today, giving themselves the chance to ride defensively Saturday. They don’t need to attack; they must only control the race, preventing dangerous escapes from threatening Basso’s lead. At this point, Arroyo is probably more concerned with maintaining his spot on the podium than re-taking the maglia rosa.
Look for the real race tomorrow to take place between Scarponi and Arroyo. Arroyo looked quite cooked by the end of Friday’s Stage 19. If Scarponi wants a spot on the final podium he has a better chance of dislodging Arroyo than Nibali—look for him to try and isolate Arroyo on the Gavia, possibly taking Nibali and Basso with him to replicate the finish we saw today.
There’s a better chance we’ll see a breakaway distance itself early with perhaps a rider or two from the day’s early move holding-on for the win. Look for someone like Cunego, Garzelli, or Samoliau to be given a bit of latitude to take the last road stage of the race.
As for Sunday, the 15-kilometer time trial around Verona shouldn’t reveal too many surprises. Richie Porte has enjoyed a fantastic Giro and could cap it with a win. Marco Pinotti would also love to end his race with a stage win in front of his home crowd. Nibali might use the stage to vault himself into second—especially if Arroyo loses more time Saturday. And don’t forget Vino and Evans; if they’re within seconds of a higher GC-placing, look for them post impressive rides—if they have anything left after Saturday, that is.
All in all, while Friday stole a bit of the show, the final two days will prove to be anything but meaningless. Here’s how I see things turning-out:
1st Place: Ivan Basso
2nd Place: Vincenzo Nibali
3rd Place: Michele Scarponi
Enjoy the weekend—and share your picks below.
Showing posts with label italy. Show all posts
Showing posts with label italy. Show all posts
Friday, May 28, 2010
Wednesday, May 26, 2010
Monday Musette - Wednesday Edition
I guess I’m still a bit jet-lagged from my trip out west. Here’s the week’s Musette:
1. The Giro has blown wide open—sort of. Monte Zoncolan and the Plan de Corones have started the reshuffling of the general classification, but there’s still some ground to be made up if the men favored to win the race are to assume their places at the top of the classification. Caisse d’Epargne’s David Arroyo has proven to be a stubborn maglia rosa, fighting valiantly to maintain his lead. Don’t forget: Arroyo finished 10th-overall last year, and only needs to react to maintain his placing. If he takes the race one day at a time between now and Sunday, following attacks and riding within himself to limit his losses if dropped, we might have a surprise winner come Sunday.
Ivan Basso and Cadel Evans appear to be the biggest threats to Arroyo’s lead; they sit 2:27 and 3:09 behind the Spaniard. That said neither of the two seem willing or able to take the race by the horns, so to speak. Evans lost some time Sunday, but regained it yesterday in the mountain ITT. This might come all the way down to Sunday—an ITT that favors Evans; or it could come down to the rider with the strongest team—Basso and Liquigas. And while we’re at it, let’s credit Richie Porte for a fantastic ride. He sits in 3rd-place at the moment; should he make it through Saturday without losing too much time we could see him use Sunday’s ITT to score a final placing inside the top-5.
As for Italy, the nation’s hopes lie with Basso and his talented Liquigas team. They’ve turned things around since Pozzato’s stage win, taking 3 impressive wins in the mountains. That said, with Basso hitting his top form at the right time, anything less than an overall title will be a disappointment.
2. Heading West, we got the Tour of California we thought we would, with Michael Rogers taking a close win over David Zabriskie and Levi Leipheimer. The race proved to be more animated than expected, making it ideal training for several stars looking for a good Tour de France this July. I was in California for the first few days of the race—look for a bit of a report sometime soon.
3. Did you hear that Denis Menchov dropped-out of today’s first stage of the Tour of Belgium? Talk about feast or famine. When Menchov’s on, he’s really on; but when he’s off, it’s almost embarrassing. If we don’t see anything by the end of the Dauphiné I think it’s safe to write him off as a threat in this year’s Tour.
4. And speaking of the Tour of Belgium, Philippe Gilbert won the rainy and windy Stage 1. Looks like he’s picking up right where he left off in April. I smell a new jersey in his future as Champion of Belgium.
5. From racing to doping: I’m still trying to wrap my head around the Landis accusations. Joe Lindsey’s done his usual fine job of putting some thoughts down over at the Boulder Report. It looks like this is going to get a whole lot worse before it gets better. The Feds are involved now, and they’re talking about fraud—a word that’s not thrown around unless someone’s taking Landis’ story very seriously.
As for me, I was a Floyd supporter when he tested positive in the 2006 Tour. I knew him well at Mercury-Viatel in 2001 and found him to be a clean, honorable guy. My colleagues and I silently wondered what his move to US Postal would do for his career. I had hoped his preparation wouldn’t change—clearly I was wrong. It’s a shame he didn’t have the courage in 2006 to say what he said last week; he might have been spared the skepticism he’s currently facing.
6. From blood to motors: read this; then watch this. Are you thinking what I’m thinking?
7. And take a look at this video. Does anyone else wonder if Lance is playing it up for the camera? Can he really be this insecure? Notice the photographer grabbing the WSJ money-shot right as Lance scrapes himself off the deck.
8. Last but not least, I’m thinking of getting a new bike. Any suggestions?
Share your comments, insights, and feedback below. Who is your pick for Giro? What did you think of this year’s ATOC? And what are we to make of Landis and Armstrong?
1. The Giro has blown wide open—sort of. Monte Zoncolan and the Plan de Corones have started the reshuffling of the general classification, but there’s still some ground to be made up if the men favored to win the race are to assume their places at the top of the classification. Caisse d’Epargne’s David Arroyo has proven to be a stubborn maglia rosa, fighting valiantly to maintain his lead. Don’t forget: Arroyo finished 10th-overall last year, and only needs to react to maintain his placing. If he takes the race one day at a time between now and Sunday, following attacks and riding within himself to limit his losses if dropped, we might have a surprise winner come Sunday.
Ivan Basso and Cadel Evans appear to be the biggest threats to Arroyo’s lead; they sit 2:27 and 3:09 behind the Spaniard. That said neither of the two seem willing or able to take the race by the horns, so to speak. Evans lost some time Sunday, but regained it yesterday in the mountain ITT. This might come all the way down to Sunday—an ITT that favors Evans; or it could come down to the rider with the strongest team—Basso and Liquigas. And while we’re at it, let’s credit Richie Porte for a fantastic ride. He sits in 3rd-place at the moment; should he make it through Saturday without losing too much time we could see him use Sunday’s ITT to score a final placing inside the top-5.
As for Italy, the nation’s hopes lie with Basso and his talented Liquigas team. They’ve turned things around since Pozzato’s stage win, taking 3 impressive wins in the mountains. That said, with Basso hitting his top form at the right time, anything less than an overall title will be a disappointment.
2. Heading West, we got the Tour of California we thought we would, with Michael Rogers taking a close win over David Zabriskie and Levi Leipheimer. The race proved to be more animated than expected, making it ideal training for several stars looking for a good Tour de France this July. I was in California for the first few days of the race—look for a bit of a report sometime soon.
3. Did you hear that Denis Menchov dropped-out of today’s first stage of the Tour of Belgium? Talk about feast or famine. When Menchov’s on, he’s really on; but when he’s off, it’s almost embarrassing. If we don’t see anything by the end of the Dauphiné I think it’s safe to write him off as a threat in this year’s Tour.
4. And speaking of the Tour of Belgium, Philippe Gilbert won the rainy and windy Stage 1. Looks like he’s picking up right where he left off in April. I smell a new jersey in his future as Champion of Belgium.
5. From racing to doping: I’m still trying to wrap my head around the Landis accusations. Joe Lindsey’s done his usual fine job of putting some thoughts down over at the Boulder Report. It looks like this is going to get a whole lot worse before it gets better. The Feds are involved now, and they’re talking about fraud—a word that’s not thrown around unless someone’s taking Landis’ story very seriously.
As for me, I was a Floyd supporter when he tested positive in the 2006 Tour. I knew him well at Mercury-Viatel in 2001 and found him to be a clean, honorable guy. My colleagues and I silently wondered what his move to US Postal would do for his career. I had hoped his preparation wouldn’t change—clearly I was wrong. It’s a shame he didn’t have the courage in 2006 to say what he said last week; he might have been spared the skepticism he’s currently facing.
6. From blood to motors: read this; then watch this. Are you thinking what I’m thinking?
7. And take a look at this video. Does anyone else wonder if Lance is playing it up for the camera? Can he really be this insecure? Notice the photographer grabbing the WSJ money-shot right as Lance scrapes himself off the deck.
8. Last but not least, I’m thinking of getting a new bike. Any suggestions?
Share your comments, insights, and feedback below. Who is your pick for Giro? What did you think of this year’s ATOC? And what are we to make of Landis and Armstrong?
Friday, May 21, 2010
Weekend Preview - The Giro Hits the Mountains and the ATOC Heads to Hollywood
With mountain action from Italy and the final two days of the 2010 Amgen Tour of California, this weekend looks to be the most exciting since April. Let's take a look at what's in store:
1. The Giro was turned on its head Wednesday when a large group of riders broke away from the main field to finish several minutes ahead of the peloton. About 40 riders benefitted from large chunks of time, with Carlos Sastre and Bradley Wiggins regaining all the time they lost earlier in the race—and then some. It’s hard to imagine how Astana, BMC, and Liquigas could have allowed such a large group of riders to accrue such huge amounts of time; as a result, we head to the weekend with the “real” GC looking like this:
1. David Arroyo (Spa) Caisse d'Epargne
2. Linus Gerdemann (Ger) Team Milram +3:52
3. Carlos Sastre (Spa) Cervelo Test Team +5:27
4. Bradley Wiggins (GBr) Sky Professional Cycling Team +6:32
5. Alexandre Vinokourov (Kaz) Astana +8:06
6. Vladimir Karpets (Rus) Team Katusha +8:24
7. Cadel Evans (Aus) BMC Racing Team +9:28
8. Vincenzo Nibali (Ita) Liquigas-Doimo +9:36
9. Ivan Basso (Ita) Liquigas-Doimo +9:57
10. Stefano Garzelli (Ita) Acqua & Sapone +10:50
11. Damiano Cunego (Ita) Lampre-Farnese Vini +11:11
12. Michele Scarponi (Ita) Androni Giocattoli +11:12
Things are about to get serious this weekend as the race heads to the mountains—look for changes. Of the eight remaining stages in this year’s Giro, five of them end with a summit finish. While tomorrow’s Stage 14 from Ferrara to Asolo doesn’t end with a climb, it might as well as the riders tackle the Monte Grappa, an 18-kilometer climb averaging 9%. With the summit a mere 40-kilometers from the finish line, the win will likely emerge from a breakaway, someone able to handle the long, technical descent safely and smoothly. While the overall favorites might choose to rest their legs for Sunday, there still should be a selection causing at least one top rider to lose time—the Monte Grappa’s just that hard. This will be the make-or-break day for a man like Bradley Wiggins. We’ll know how seriously he’s taking final week of the race by how he well he fares Saturday.
As for Sunday, well, that’s when things really get ugly—at least for the riders. For fans, it should be an exciting day as the riders tackle 3 categorized climbs before a summit finish atop the infamous Monte Zoncolan, a long, steep climb that should be packed with fans. Monday’s rest day assures that the big hitters will race all-out to assert themselves in the quest for the final maglia rosa—they’ll have a day recover from whatever efforts ensue. Likewise, a bad day Sunday might spell the end of several contenders’ hopes.
Look for Carlos Sastre to use the Zoncolan to begin punishing the rest for their foolish mistake on Wednesday—this stage is tailor-made for a rider with his talents. While Sastre looks to be the rider best positioned to take control of the race, Liquigas is clearly the best team. Vincenzo Nibali and Ivan Basso are hitting their top form at just the right time, making them a formidable duo with which the rest must contend. On the flipside, Cadel Evans and Alexander Vinokourov are doing everything they can just to hold it together, with both having lost significant portions of their teams (and sanity?) over the past several days. Evans might be a used to riding with less than desirable support—he’s done it for years; but Vino might find the prospect a bit too daunting. No matter the weekend winners, by Sunday night we should have a much clearer picture of who might be wearing the pink jersey one week later.
2. As for the Amgen Tour of California, the race concludes this weekend with 34-kilometer individual time trial around Los Angeles and a 134-kilometer circuit race in Thousand Oaks. Both days should prove pivotal to the determination the overall winner—the time trial especially. We’ll have a better sense of the main contenders following today’s stage to Big Bear, but I think it’s safe to say we’re looking at a 3-horse race between Michael Rogers, Dave Zabriskie, and Levi Leipheimer. Jens Voigt and Peter Sagan deserve some consideration, but they should lose time later this afternoon on the way to Big Bear.
The final two stages should be pretty exciting, as Rogers, Zabriskie, and Leipheimer are evenly matched in an ITT. If they finish close to one another Saturday—which is likely—look for Sunday’s circuit race to be a battle all the way to the line. Assuming no changes in the top-3 Friday, I see Rogers taking the overall win. His team is stronger and he’s really the only rider capable of beating Levi and Dave Z. against the clock—aside from a certain Swiss rider on Team Saxo Bank.
All in all, it looks like we’re in for an exciting weekend—you can start your days in Italy, and end them in California (should Versus decide to show the entire stages).
Who are your picks for the weekend? Share them below—and have a great weekend?
1. The Giro was turned on its head Wednesday when a large group of riders broke away from the main field to finish several minutes ahead of the peloton. About 40 riders benefitted from large chunks of time, with Carlos Sastre and Bradley Wiggins regaining all the time they lost earlier in the race—and then some. It’s hard to imagine how Astana, BMC, and Liquigas could have allowed such a large group of riders to accrue such huge amounts of time; as a result, we head to the weekend with the “real” GC looking like this:
1. David Arroyo (Spa) Caisse d'Epargne
2. Linus Gerdemann (Ger) Team Milram +3:52
3. Carlos Sastre (Spa) Cervelo Test Team +5:27
4. Bradley Wiggins (GBr) Sky Professional Cycling Team +6:32
5. Alexandre Vinokourov (Kaz) Astana +8:06
6. Vladimir Karpets (Rus) Team Katusha +8:24
7. Cadel Evans (Aus) BMC Racing Team +9:28
8. Vincenzo Nibali (Ita) Liquigas-Doimo +9:36
9. Ivan Basso (Ita) Liquigas-Doimo +9:57
10. Stefano Garzelli (Ita) Acqua & Sapone +10:50
11. Damiano Cunego (Ita) Lampre-Farnese Vini +11:11
12. Michele Scarponi (Ita) Androni Giocattoli +11:12
Things are about to get serious this weekend as the race heads to the mountains—look for changes. Of the eight remaining stages in this year’s Giro, five of them end with a summit finish. While tomorrow’s Stage 14 from Ferrara to Asolo doesn’t end with a climb, it might as well as the riders tackle the Monte Grappa, an 18-kilometer climb averaging 9%. With the summit a mere 40-kilometers from the finish line, the win will likely emerge from a breakaway, someone able to handle the long, technical descent safely and smoothly. While the overall favorites might choose to rest their legs for Sunday, there still should be a selection causing at least one top rider to lose time—the Monte Grappa’s just that hard. This will be the make-or-break day for a man like Bradley Wiggins. We’ll know how seriously he’s taking final week of the race by how he well he fares Saturday.
As for Sunday, well, that’s when things really get ugly—at least for the riders. For fans, it should be an exciting day as the riders tackle 3 categorized climbs before a summit finish atop the infamous Monte Zoncolan, a long, steep climb that should be packed with fans. Monday’s rest day assures that the big hitters will race all-out to assert themselves in the quest for the final maglia rosa—they’ll have a day recover from whatever efforts ensue. Likewise, a bad day Sunday might spell the end of several contenders’ hopes.
Look for Carlos Sastre to use the Zoncolan to begin punishing the rest for their foolish mistake on Wednesday—this stage is tailor-made for a rider with his talents. While Sastre looks to be the rider best positioned to take control of the race, Liquigas is clearly the best team. Vincenzo Nibali and Ivan Basso are hitting their top form at just the right time, making them a formidable duo with which the rest must contend. On the flipside, Cadel Evans and Alexander Vinokourov are doing everything they can just to hold it together, with both having lost significant portions of their teams (and sanity?) over the past several days. Evans might be a used to riding with less than desirable support—he’s done it for years; but Vino might find the prospect a bit too daunting. No matter the weekend winners, by Sunday night we should have a much clearer picture of who might be wearing the pink jersey one week later.
2. As for the Amgen Tour of California, the race concludes this weekend with 34-kilometer individual time trial around Los Angeles and a 134-kilometer circuit race in Thousand Oaks. Both days should prove pivotal to the determination the overall winner—the time trial especially. We’ll have a better sense of the main contenders following today’s stage to Big Bear, but I think it’s safe to say we’re looking at a 3-horse race between Michael Rogers, Dave Zabriskie, and Levi Leipheimer. Jens Voigt and Peter Sagan deserve some consideration, but they should lose time later this afternoon on the way to Big Bear.
The final two stages should be pretty exciting, as Rogers, Zabriskie, and Leipheimer are evenly matched in an ITT. If they finish close to one another Saturday—which is likely—look for Sunday’s circuit race to be a battle all the way to the line. Assuming no changes in the top-3 Friday, I see Rogers taking the overall win. His team is stronger and he’s really the only rider capable of beating Levi and Dave Z. against the clock—aside from a certain Swiss rider on Team Saxo Bank.
All in all, it looks like we’re in for an exciting weekend—you can start your days in Italy, and end them in California (should Versus decide to show the entire stages).
Who are your picks for the weekend? Share them below—and have a great weekend?
Saturday, May 8, 2010
Wednesday, May 5, 2010
The 2010 Giro d'Italia - 5 Riders to Watch
The favorites for this year’s Giro d’Italia are well-documented—Evans, Basso, Sastre, and the rest have already received more than their fair share of press in the week leading-up to this Saturday’s Partenza in Amsterdam. Thus, a more interesting conversation might be which young riders will shine in this year’s race, perhaps revealing themselves to be future contender for the maglia rosa.
Here are 5 riders to watch:
1. Jan Bakelants (Age 24) spent the last season-and-a-half riding for Topsport Vlaanderen following wins in the Liège-Bastogne-Liège, the Circuit Ardennes, and most importantly, the 2008 Tour de l’Avenir as an amateur. This past off-season he jumped to the Pro Tour, signing a contract with Omega Pharma – Lotto, with whom he’ll ride this year’s Giro, his first Grand Tour. Bakelants is one of a rare breed of Belgians who prefers hills and time trials to the cobbled, one-day races most often associated with his compatriots. As a result, he’s perfectly suited to stage races. Granted, a 3-week Grand Tour is a much more serious endeavor than a 7-day stage race, but with a squad looking for little more than daily stage victories, Bakelants might have some freedom to try his hand at a good GC result. Top-20 would be a terrific indicator for future success in a race where other Belgians—such as Jurgen Vandenbroeck and Kevin Seeldraeyers—have performed well lately.
2. Sasha Modolo (Age 22) burst onto the scene this season with several top-10 results in Tirreno-Adriatico before taking 4th-place in Milan-San Remo. Considering the intense competition he faced in those events, the young sprinter from Colnago – CSF Inox is clearly ready for the big time. And he’ll get his chance to prove it as the Giro will be his first Grand Tour and aside from Milan-San Remo, he’s never raced on such an important stage. While a professional win has continued to elude him, a Giro stage victory would be a fitting reward following the Italian’s impressive spring. At the Giro he’ll have Greipel, Farrar, and Petacchi to contend with—wouldn’t Italy love to see the baton passed from Ale-Jet to a young successor?
3. My gut tells me to keep an eye on Branislau Samoilau (Age 24). Maybe it’s because he is a young climber who can time trial; maybe it’s because he’s Belorussian—we have been witnessing a bit of a renaissance for riders from former Eastern Bloc countries. Or maybe it’s because he rides for Quick Step—no, it’s not that actually. Regardless of my reasoning (or lack thereof), Samoilau bears watching. He’s performed well in the past three years in various second-tier races including the Tour of Austria, Settimana Lombarda, and some smaller Spanish stage races. More importantly, in 2007 he finished 22nd in his one and only Giro d’Italia—at the ripe “old” age of 21. Like Bakelants, he rides for a team largely devoid of any real goals for the Giro other than giving several men used to playing supporting roles opportunities to win stages and perhaps ride to a high GC placing. For Samoilau, a top-15 finish could be in reach, especially with an individual time trial on the race’s final day.
4. Francesco Masciarelli (Age 24) won the Mont Faron “Queen” Stage of the Tour de Mediterranean in February, beating Rinaldo Nocentini, Alejandro Valverde, and Maxim Iglinsky in the process. The youngest of 3 brothers—all of whom are professional cyclists—and the son of former Italian professional, Palmiro Masciarelli, Francesco’s pedigree is clearly top-notch. Masciarelli’s been progressing steadily through the ranks with several wins and high placings laying the foundation for what looks to be a promising career. This will be his second Tour of Italy, following a debut ride lst year in which he finished 16th overall. The difficult final week should suit his aggressive uphill style, especially as other riders begin to fade. He’ll begin the race as one of Stefano Garzelli’s key lieutenants, but should his captain falter, he has more than enough talent to ride to an impressive result of his own—perhaps becoming Italy’s “next great hope” in the process.
5. Jack Bobridge (Age 20) comes to his first Grand Tour following a DNF in the Tour of Romandie, but that’s not a problem in my mind as it was Jack’s first road race since January’s Tour Down Under. An abbreviated Romandie should prove to have been just what Jack needed after a few successful months preparing for and competing in the World Track Championships. With some high-speed racing in legs, look for Jack to pull a surprise in Saturday’s Stage 1—a short, 8.4-kilometer time trial that suits the pursuiter’s strengths. Garmin also wants to take the team trial trial in Stage 4; Bobridge is a valuable cog in the team’s TTT machine. As for the overall, I doubt Bobridge will finish the entire event; but look for him to stick around at least through the first week to 10 days, gaining experience and learning the ropes in what will be only his third road event as a professional.
And there you have it—five youngsters to watch in this year’s Giro. Who are your picks to surprise us with a breakout performance? Share your comments below.
Come back Friday for more pre-Giro coverage—and please visit my new column at Bicycling Magazine as “The Backseat DS”. (The Giro Top-10 should be up soon.)
Thanks for reading!
Here are 5 riders to watch:
1. Jan Bakelants (Age 24) spent the last season-and-a-half riding for Topsport Vlaanderen following wins in the Liège-Bastogne-Liège, the Circuit Ardennes, and most importantly, the 2008 Tour de l’Avenir as an amateur. This past off-season he jumped to the Pro Tour, signing a contract with Omega Pharma – Lotto, with whom he’ll ride this year’s Giro, his first Grand Tour. Bakelants is one of a rare breed of Belgians who prefers hills and time trials to the cobbled, one-day races most often associated with his compatriots. As a result, he’s perfectly suited to stage races. Granted, a 3-week Grand Tour is a much more serious endeavor than a 7-day stage race, but with a squad looking for little more than daily stage victories, Bakelants might have some freedom to try his hand at a good GC result. Top-20 would be a terrific indicator for future success in a race where other Belgians—such as Jurgen Vandenbroeck and Kevin Seeldraeyers—have performed well lately.
2. Sasha Modolo (Age 22) burst onto the scene this season with several top-10 results in Tirreno-Adriatico before taking 4th-place in Milan-San Remo. Considering the intense competition he faced in those events, the young sprinter from Colnago – CSF Inox is clearly ready for the big time. And he’ll get his chance to prove it as the Giro will be his first Grand Tour and aside from Milan-San Remo, he’s never raced on such an important stage. While a professional win has continued to elude him, a Giro stage victory would be a fitting reward following the Italian’s impressive spring. At the Giro he’ll have Greipel, Farrar, and Petacchi to contend with—wouldn’t Italy love to see the baton passed from Ale-Jet to a young successor?
3. My gut tells me to keep an eye on Branislau Samoilau (Age 24). Maybe it’s because he is a young climber who can time trial; maybe it’s because he’s Belorussian—we have been witnessing a bit of a renaissance for riders from former Eastern Bloc countries. Or maybe it’s because he rides for Quick Step—no, it’s not that actually. Regardless of my reasoning (or lack thereof), Samoilau bears watching. He’s performed well in the past three years in various second-tier races including the Tour of Austria, Settimana Lombarda, and some smaller Spanish stage races. More importantly, in 2007 he finished 22nd in his one and only Giro d’Italia—at the ripe “old” age of 21. Like Bakelants, he rides for a team largely devoid of any real goals for the Giro other than giving several men used to playing supporting roles opportunities to win stages and perhaps ride to a high GC placing. For Samoilau, a top-15 finish could be in reach, especially with an individual time trial on the race’s final day.
4. Francesco Masciarelli (Age 24) won the Mont Faron “Queen” Stage of the Tour de Mediterranean in February, beating Rinaldo Nocentini, Alejandro Valverde, and Maxim Iglinsky in the process. The youngest of 3 brothers—all of whom are professional cyclists—and the son of former Italian professional, Palmiro Masciarelli, Francesco’s pedigree is clearly top-notch. Masciarelli’s been progressing steadily through the ranks with several wins and high placings laying the foundation for what looks to be a promising career. This will be his second Tour of Italy, following a debut ride lst year in which he finished 16th overall. The difficult final week should suit his aggressive uphill style, especially as other riders begin to fade. He’ll begin the race as one of Stefano Garzelli’s key lieutenants, but should his captain falter, he has more than enough talent to ride to an impressive result of his own—perhaps becoming Italy’s “next great hope” in the process.
5. Jack Bobridge (Age 20) comes to his first Grand Tour following a DNF in the Tour of Romandie, but that’s not a problem in my mind as it was Jack’s first road race since January’s Tour Down Under. An abbreviated Romandie should prove to have been just what Jack needed after a few successful months preparing for and competing in the World Track Championships. With some high-speed racing in legs, look for Jack to pull a surprise in Saturday’s Stage 1—a short, 8.4-kilometer time trial that suits the pursuiter’s strengths. Garmin also wants to take the team trial trial in Stage 4; Bobridge is a valuable cog in the team’s TTT machine. As for the overall, I doubt Bobridge will finish the entire event; but look for him to stick around at least through the first week to 10 days, gaining experience and learning the ropes in what will be only his third road event as a professional.
And there you have it—five youngsters to watch in this year’s Giro. Who are your picks to surprise us with a breakout performance? Share your comments below.
Come back Friday for more pre-Giro coverage—and please visit my new column at Bicycling Magazine as “The Backseat DS”. (The Giro Top-10 should be up soon.)
Thanks for reading!
Monday, March 22, 2010
Monday Musette - Milan-San Remo Wrap-up
Saturday’s Milan-San Remo went-off without a hitch--despite the weather’s best attempts to ruin the day. After 298 kilometers of racing in cold, rainy conditions, it was a Spaniard who ended-up with the victory. Funny how two men from warmer, sunnier climates have taken wins in two of the season’s grimiest races thus far. Here’s what we learned:
1. I remember watching the 1999 World Championship Road Race in Verona, Italy with friends on a television in my apartment in Leuven, Belgium. When a young, unknown Spaniard surprised a select group of favorites including Francesco Casagrande, Frank Vandenbroucke, and Jan Ullrich, we all felt a bit ripped-off. But after 2 more World Titles, 7 Vuelta stage wins, 4 Tour stage wins, 1 Ghent-Wevelgem, and now 3 Milan-San Remo’s I think it’s time for me to officially apologize to Oscar Freire for years of underrating him. With the changes to this year’s Belgian calendar, Freire has a terrific opportunity to take yet another win in Sunday’s Ghent-Wevelgem—especially since many of his main rivals might choose to take Saturday’s E3 Prijs more seriously. Congratulations, Oscar. I won’t overlook you again—at least for one more week.
2. Tom Boonen was satisfied with a respectable 2nd place in San Remo—even though Freire blew his doors off in the sprint. What impressed me most was Boonen’s positioning on the Cipressa and Poggio—he rode attentively and comfortably at the front of the peloton, consistently placed within the first 10 or so riders. Clearly his form for Flanders and Roubaix has arrived. Unfortunately, I wonder if he might find himself too heavily marked in Flanders to take a third win. On the other hand, it’s essentially every man for himself on the pavé of Paris-Roubaix—at this point only Pozzato, Hushovd, and Cancellara look to have the condition to ride with him there. Then again, those races are still 2 and 3 weeks away—maybe it’s too soon to speculate?
3. As for Pippo Pozzato, he seemed to ride as if he had read the “This will come down to a sprint” writing on the wall. Knowing he had relatively little chances against sprinters such as Freire, Boonen, Bennati, and Hushovd, he seemed content to treat the race’s finale as an opportunity to test his legs on the attack. To be honest, when he rolled-off the front in pursuit of Vincenzo Nibali with 2km to go, I thought he would take his second victory—too bad the rest had other things in mind. At Flanders though, they might find catching up to Pozzato an entirely different enterprise.
4. And speaking of Hushovd, he made the leading group, ultimately sprinting to a slid 6th-place finish. With Flanders and Roubaix still weeks away, Thor looks to have starting his crescendo at just the right time. Unfortunately, it was also announced that he won’t have the support of Heinrich Haussler; his knee injury seems to be worse than expected, keeping out of races until later this spring.
5. Philippe Gilbert’s attack on the Poggio and subsequent 9th place finish confirmed his candidacy for a win in Flanders—Roubaix’s not very suited to his strengths. While his attack had little effect on the race itself, it served noticed to everyone—including the Belgian press—that he’s not to be overlooked.
6. And finally, we must mention Fabian Cancellara, another rider who led a quiet build-up to Saturday’s race. Spartacus rode comfortably with the lead group, finishing the day in 17th place. Like Hushovd, he appears on-track for a solid cobbled campaign.
7. Moving away from the pre-race favorites, Quick Step’s Sylvain Chavanel looks to be peaking quite nicely. If Boonen finds himself too heavily marked, Chavanel could play Devolder’s role in Flanders, possibly getting the win we all know he deserves. Regardless, his condition means teams will have two Quick Step riders with which to contend; an advantage few teams are able to match.
8. BMC’s Marcus Burghardt was his team’s only rider to finish with the leaders. As he seems to be peaking a bit sooner than his teammates Ballan and Hincapie (both of whom came in with the second group, 1:40 behind), look for him to impress this Sunday in Ghent-Wevelgem, a race he won in 2007. The German has also recorded top-5 finishes in both Dwars door Vlaanderen and the E3 Prijs in the past—it’s a shame they weren’t invited to Dwars, but it still could be a good weekend for the squad.
9. As we expected, Colnago’s Sacha Modolo finishing 4th on Saturday, continuing his string of top results from Tirreno-Adriatico. I know it’s a bit early to talk transfers, but look for him to be snapped-up by a team with an aging sprinter before next season—Lampre and Katusha might be possibilities—especially if he manages to grab a stage win or two in this year’s Giro.
10. Liquigas rode a fantastic race for Daniele Bennati with Vincenzo Nibali and Roman Kreuziger playing roles as prominent as we expected. Unfortunately, Bennati could manage no better than 5th. Clearly he’s a second-tier field sprinter, able to win only when better, faster competition is absent. Stick to Tirreno, DePanne, and the Vuelta, my friend. And by the way, give Liquigas the first “What Were They Thinking?” Award of 2010 for leaving Peter Sagan—a double stage-winner in Paris-Nice—at home.
11. Unfortunately, Tyler Farrar’s performance Saturday might put him in the same category as Bennati—although Bennati made it to the finish with the lead group. If Farrar’s team can’t position him well in a finale as straightforward as Milan-San Remo’s then what will they do in the cobbled classics, races with much more difficult profiles?
Two final thoughts from Saturday:
12. What the heck was Stefano Garzelli doing on the Poggio? Several sources claimed he attacked, but in my opinion he simply set a hard pace—but for whom?
13. Did you notice the prevalence of super-deep carbon fiber rear wheels? If this is indeed a new trend, I don’t get it. But I’m like that.
Time permitting, I’ve got a big week planned for Pavé. Here’s the schedule for the next several days:
Tuesday: Dwars Door Vlaanderen Preview
Wednesday: 5 Questions for the Cobbled Classics
Thursday: Dwars Door Vlaanderen Wrap-up/What We Learned
Friday: Weekend Preview(s) E3 and Criterium International
Saturday: Ghent-Wevelgem Preview
It’s an ambitious program, but I think I’m up for it—at least I hope so.
Thanks for reading! Share your comments below
1. I remember watching the 1999 World Championship Road Race in Verona, Italy with friends on a television in my apartment in Leuven, Belgium. When a young, unknown Spaniard surprised a select group of favorites including Francesco Casagrande, Frank Vandenbroucke, and Jan Ullrich, we all felt a bit ripped-off. But after 2 more World Titles, 7 Vuelta stage wins, 4 Tour stage wins, 1 Ghent-Wevelgem, and now 3 Milan-San Remo’s I think it’s time for me to officially apologize to Oscar Freire for years of underrating him. With the changes to this year’s Belgian calendar, Freire has a terrific opportunity to take yet another win in Sunday’s Ghent-Wevelgem—especially since many of his main rivals might choose to take Saturday’s E3 Prijs more seriously. Congratulations, Oscar. I won’t overlook you again—at least for one more week.
2. Tom Boonen was satisfied with a respectable 2nd place in San Remo—even though Freire blew his doors off in the sprint. What impressed me most was Boonen’s positioning on the Cipressa and Poggio—he rode attentively and comfortably at the front of the peloton, consistently placed within the first 10 or so riders. Clearly his form for Flanders and Roubaix has arrived. Unfortunately, I wonder if he might find himself too heavily marked in Flanders to take a third win. On the other hand, it’s essentially every man for himself on the pavé of Paris-Roubaix—at this point only Pozzato, Hushovd, and Cancellara look to have the condition to ride with him there. Then again, those races are still 2 and 3 weeks away—maybe it’s too soon to speculate?
3. As for Pippo Pozzato, he seemed to ride as if he had read the “This will come down to a sprint” writing on the wall. Knowing he had relatively little chances against sprinters such as Freire, Boonen, Bennati, and Hushovd, he seemed content to treat the race’s finale as an opportunity to test his legs on the attack. To be honest, when he rolled-off the front in pursuit of Vincenzo Nibali with 2km to go, I thought he would take his second victory—too bad the rest had other things in mind. At Flanders though, they might find catching up to Pozzato an entirely different enterprise.
4. And speaking of Hushovd, he made the leading group, ultimately sprinting to a slid 6th-place finish. With Flanders and Roubaix still weeks away, Thor looks to have starting his crescendo at just the right time. Unfortunately, it was also announced that he won’t have the support of Heinrich Haussler; his knee injury seems to be worse than expected, keeping out of races until later this spring.
5. Philippe Gilbert’s attack on the Poggio and subsequent 9th place finish confirmed his candidacy for a win in Flanders—Roubaix’s not very suited to his strengths. While his attack had little effect on the race itself, it served noticed to everyone—including the Belgian press—that he’s not to be overlooked.
6. And finally, we must mention Fabian Cancellara, another rider who led a quiet build-up to Saturday’s race. Spartacus rode comfortably with the lead group, finishing the day in 17th place. Like Hushovd, he appears on-track for a solid cobbled campaign.
7. Moving away from the pre-race favorites, Quick Step’s Sylvain Chavanel looks to be peaking quite nicely. If Boonen finds himself too heavily marked, Chavanel could play Devolder’s role in Flanders, possibly getting the win we all know he deserves. Regardless, his condition means teams will have two Quick Step riders with which to contend; an advantage few teams are able to match.
8. BMC’s Marcus Burghardt was his team’s only rider to finish with the leaders. As he seems to be peaking a bit sooner than his teammates Ballan and Hincapie (both of whom came in with the second group, 1:40 behind), look for him to impress this Sunday in Ghent-Wevelgem, a race he won in 2007. The German has also recorded top-5 finishes in both Dwars door Vlaanderen and the E3 Prijs in the past—it’s a shame they weren’t invited to Dwars, but it still could be a good weekend for the squad.
9. As we expected, Colnago’s Sacha Modolo finishing 4th on Saturday, continuing his string of top results from Tirreno-Adriatico. I know it’s a bit early to talk transfers, but look for him to be snapped-up by a team with an aging sprinter before next season—Lampre and Katusha might be possibilities—especially if he manages to grab a stage win or two in this year’s Giro.
10. Liquigas rode a fantastic race for Daniele Bennati with Vincenzo Nibali and Roman Kreuziger playing roles as prominent as we expected. Unfortunately, Bennati could manage no better than 5th. Clearly he’s a second-tier field sprinter, able to win only when better, faster competition is absent. Stick to Tirreno, DePanne, and the Vuelta, my friend. And by the way, give Liquigas the first “What Were They Thinking?” Award of 2010 for leaving Peter Sagan—a double stage-winner in Paris-Nice—at home.
11. Unfortunately, Tyler Farrar’s performance Saturday might put him in the same category as Bennati—although Bennati made it to the finish with the lead group. If Farrar’s team can’t position him well in a finale as straightforward as Milan-San Remo’s then what will they do in the cobbled classics, races with much more difficult profiles?
Two final thoughts from Saturday:
12. What the heck was Stefano Garzelli doing on the Poggio? Several sources claimed he attacked, but in my opinion he simply set a hard pace—but for whom?
13. Did you notice the prevalence of super-deep carbon fiber rear wheels? If this is indeed a new trend, I don’t get it. But I’m like that.
Time permitting, I’ve got a big week planned for Pavé. Here’s the schedule for the next several days:
Tuesday: Dwars Door Vlaanderen Preview
Wednesday: 5 Questions for the Cobbled Classics
Thursday: Dwars Door Vlaanderen Wrap-up/What We Learned
Friday: Weekend Preview(s) E3 and Criterium International
Saturday: Ghent-Wevelgem Preview
It’s an ambitious program, but I think I’m up for it—at least I hope so.
Thanks for reading! Share your comments below
Wednesday, March 17, 2010
Tirreno-Adriatico - What We Learned
Italy’s Tirreno-Adriatico wrapped-up yesterday with Sky’s Edvald Boasson Hagen sprinting to the stage win ahead of Alessandro Petacchi and Sacha Modolo. Let’s take a minute or two to discuss what we learned during the “Race of the Two Seas”.
1. Tom Boonen’s ready to win Milan-San Remo. Judging from his win in Stage 2 and a day spent on the attack in Stage 6, Tom Boonen’s sights seem squarely set on a victory in Saturday’s Milan-San Remo. With a team dedicated to his success, another Monument win seems to be a very real possibility for the Belgian Champion.
2. Astana’s not a one-trick pony. While all eyes were on Alberto Contador’s battle with Caisse d’Epargne in France, the rest of his team was quietly turning heads in Italy. Maxim Iglinksy started the ball rolling with a fantastic win in L’Eroica on the Saturday before Tirreno and Enrico Gasparotto took a win in similar fashion in Tirreno’s Stage 5. Furthermore, there was always an Astana rider in the breakaway as they were clearly one of the most aggressive teams to take part. At this point, it’s easy to see why some are quietly wondering if the departure of Armstrong and Co. was a good thing for the team.
3. The jury’s still out on BMC for the cobbled classics. Cadel Evans aggressively raced to a 3rd-place finish, almost winning a stage in the process. Aside from that, there wasn’t much to write home about from BMC. Hincapie claims his form is improving, while Burghardt spent the day in the break on Stage 6, ultimately being one of the last men to be caught. And Alessandro Ballan? Well, there’s not much to say there. Overall, while there were no signs of regression—no sickness or crashes laid claim to any of BMC’s top guns—there was nothing to indicate continued progress toward the team’s northern goals.
4. Fabian Cancellara and his Saxo Bank team were notably absent from the proceedings. This is either really good or really bad for Spartacus’ competitors come the cobbled classics. He and Ballan are two riders hoping for a return to winning form in time for Flanders and Roubaix—here’s hoping their quiet week in Italy is a sign of bigger things to come.
5. It’s not over ‘til the bald Italian sings. Credit Stefano Garzelli and his team for continuing the race for the overall title through the final day. One can only wonder what would happen if two riders were to head into the Tour’s final stage with mere seconds between them—would we see something resembling the last stage at Tirreno?
6. And speaking of Garzelli and good form, it looks like Pavé is coming into form as well—if I may say so myself. Allow me to quote from our Tirreno-Adriatico Preview:
“And let’s not forget the Italians hoping to score a stage or two in front of their home crowds, men like Giovanni Visconti, Stefano Garzelli, and last year’s winner Michele Scarponi come to mind. Here’s where you might find an overall favorite or two, as they’re fast enough to finish near the front in a sprint, while aggressive and lithe enough to perhaps steal time on hillier days. Scarponi won the race last year; he’ll be extra-motivated to defend to his title.”
Obvious choices? Perhaps—but it still feels good to be right every once in a while.
Although I’ve probably just jinxed myself for the rest of the season.
What about you? What did you take away from this year’s Tirreno-Adriatico? Share your thoughts below.
1. Tom Boonen’s ready to win Milan-San Remo. Judging from his win in Stage 2 and a day spent on the attack in Stage 6, Tom Boonen’s sights seem squarely set on a victory in Saturday’s Milan-San Remo. With a team dedicated to his success, another Monument win seems to be a very real possibility for the Belgian Champion.
2. Astana’s not a one-trick pony. While all eyes were on Alberto Contador’s battle with Caisse d’Epargne in France, the rest of his team was quietly turning heads in Italy. Maxim Iglinksy started the ball rolling with a fantastic win in L’Eroica on the Saturday before Tirreno and Enrico Gasparotto took a win in similar fashion in Tirreno’s Stage 5. Furthermore, there was always an Astana rider in the breakaway as they were clearly one of the most aggressive teams to take part. At this point, it’s easy to see why some are quietly wondering if the departure of Armstrong and Co. was a good thing for the team.
3. The jury’s still out on BMC for the cobbled classics. Cadel Evans aggressively raced to a 3rd-place finish, almost winning a stage in the process. Aside from that, there wasn’t much to write home about from BMC. Hincapie claims his form is improving, while Burghardt spent the day in the break on Stage 6, ultimately being one of the last men to be caught. And Alessandro Ballan? Well, there’s not much to say there. Overall, while there were no signs of regression—no sickness or crashes laid claim to any of BMC’s top guns—there was nothing to indicate continued progress toward the team’s northern goals.
4. Fabian Cancellara and his Saxo Bank team were notably absent from the proceedings. This is either really good or really bad for Spartacus’ competitors come the cobbled classics. He and Ballan are two riders hoping for a return to winning form in time for Flanders and Roubaix—here’s hoping their quiet week in Italy is a sign of bigger things to come.
5. It’s not over ‘til the bald Italian sings. Credit Stefano Garzelli and his team for continuing the race for the overall title through the final day. One can only wonder what would happen if two riders were to head into the Tour’s final stage with mere seconds between them—would we see something resembling the last stage at Tirreno?
6. And speaking of Garzelli and good form, it looks like Pavé is coming into form as well—if I may say so myself. Allow me to quote from our Tirreno-Adriatico Preview:
“And let’s not forget the Italians hoping to score a stage or two in front of their home crowds, men like Giovanni Visconti, Stefano Garzelli, and last year’s winner Michele Scarponi come to mind. Here’s where you might find an overall favorite or two, as they’re fast enough to finish near the front in a sprint, while aggressive and lithe enough to perhaps steal time on hillier days. Scarponi won the race last year; he’ll be extra-motivated to defend to his title.”
Obvious choices? Perhaps—but it still feels good to be right every once in a while.
Although I’ve probably just jinxed myself for the rest of the season.
What about you? What did you take away from this year’s Tirreno-Adriatico? Share your thoughts below.
Friday, March 12, 2010
Weekend Preview - Paris-Nice and Tirreno-Adriatico
This weekend’s main festivities take place in France and Italy with the conclusion of Paris-Nice and the continuation of Tirreno-Adriatico. So far, the racing’s gone more or less as expected in both events: the Spanish are ruling the Race to the Sun and sprinters and breakaways have traded punches in Tirreno.
The current GC in Paris-Nice holds few surprises. Thanks to his peloton-shattering attack on La Croix Neuve in Thursday’s Stage 4 to Mende, the Astana rider leads his compatriot, Alejandro Valverde, by 20 seconds and Liquigas’ Roman Kreuziger by 25. Valverde’s teammate and defending Paris-Nice champion, Luis Leon Sanchez, sits in 4th with Euskaltel’s Samuel Sanchez tucked just behind in 5th. While seemingly indomitable, Contador’s lead is anything but assured. A 20-second deficit is not much, especially when the task of overcoming it lies in the capable hands of Valverde. With Leon Sanchez close to the lead as well, Caisse d’Epargne possesses a numerical advantage over the other favorites; they need to double-team Contador, subjecting him and his relatively weaker Astana team to a constant series of attacks. Throw Roman Kreuziger and Samuel Sanchez into the mix, and Contador’s lead begins to look even shakier—if they all ride aggressively.
Aside from the battle for GC supremacy, Paris-Nice has proven to be the coming-out party for Peter Sagan, Liquigas’ young (he’s 19!) superstar. Pavé’s been talking about Sagan as early as the Tour Down Under, where he impressed the likes of one Mr. Armstrong with several strong performances. With two stage wins this week, he seems to be this year’s revelation—a la Heinrich Haussler and Edvald Boassen Hagen.
And speaking of Haussler, he dropped-out of the race midway through Stage 4—his knee’s still bothering him, apparently. One hopes he can recover in time to do battle in Milan-San Remo and the cobbled classics, the races where he announced his stardom last year.
As for the final two stages, tomorrow’s Stage 6 features 8 categorized climbs including the 1st Category Col de Vence—although its summit lies about 35 kilometers from the uphill finish in Tourettes-sur-Loup. This will be the first chance for Contador’s challengers to earn back some time. Sunday’s final stage features three 1st Category ascents: the Col de la Porte, La Tarbie, and the Col d’Eze. Paris-Nice has been decided on the last day in the past—this year might provide a similar finale.
As for Tirreno-Adriatico, we expected a clash between breakaways, sprints, and the weather. So far, all has progressed as expected with a breakaway succeeding in Stage 1—Milram got another win from Linus Gerdemann—and sprinters finding success in Stages 2 and 3 with Tom Boonen and Daniele Bennati taking the victories. As for the overall, Bennati holds the lead by a mere 4 seconds over Gerdemann and Boonen.
Tomorrow’s stage might produce an exciting arrivo—the last 8 kilometers are quite difficult, with two ascents containing pitches over 15%. Look for a strongman to take the win, possibly a rider like Philippe Gilbert or Filippo Pozzato. Cadel Evans lurks back in 9th-place on GC; a strong finish from him could put BMC atop the podium and into an overall leader’s jersey for the first time this season. Sunday’s Stage 5 offers an interesting finish as well. The line comes 1km after a short, but sharp climb with an average gradient of 15% (it’s steepest section is 20%). This might be an even better day for the men we’ve already mentioned—if their teams can set them up well coming into final 2000 meters.
It looks like we’ll have some tough choices to make Saturday and Sunday with several options for live viewing. Overall, it will be an exciting 2 days of racing, with almost of the favorites ready to shine.
And what about you? What do you expect to see happen this weekend? Share your comments below.
The current GC in Paris-Nice holds few surprises. Thanks to his peloton-shattering attack on La Croix Neuve in Thursday’s Stage 4 to Mende, the Astana rider leads his compatriot, Alejandro Valverde, by 20 seconds and Liquigas’ Roman Kreuziger by 25. Valverde’s teammate and defending Paris-Nice champion, Luis Leon Sanchez, sits in 4th with Euskaltel’s Samuel Sanchez tucked just behind in 5th. While seemingly indomitable, Contador’s lead is anything but assured. A 20-second deficit is not much, especially when the task of overcoming it lies in the capable hands of Valverde. With Leon Sanchez close to the lead as well, Caisse d’Epargne possesses a numerical advantage over the other favorites; they need to double-team Contador, subjecting him and his relatively weaker Astana team to a constant series of attacks. Throw Roman Kreuziger and Samuel Sanchez into the mix, and Contador’s lead begins to look even shakier—if they all ride aggressively.
Aside from the battle for GC supremacy, Paris-Nice has proven to be the coming-out party for Peter Sagan, Liquigas’ young (he’s 19!) superstar. Pavé’s been talking about Sagan as early as the Tour Down Under, where he impressed the likes of one Mr. Armstrong with several strong performances. With two stage wins this week, he seems to be this year’s revelation—a la Heinrich Haussler and Edvald Boassen Hagen.
And speaking of Haussler, he dropped-out of the race midway through Stage 4—his knee’s still bothering him, apparently. One hopes he can recover in time to do battle in Milan-San Remo and the cobbled classics, the races where he announced his stardom last year.
As for the final two stages, tomorrow’s Stage 6 features 8 categorized climbs including the 1st Category Col de Vence—although its summit lies about 35 kilometers from the uphill finish in Tourettes-sur-Loup. This will be the first chance for Contador’s challengers to earn back some time. Sunday’s final stage features three 1st Category ascents: the Col de la Porte, La Tarbie, and the Col d’Eze. Paris-Nice has been decided on the last day in the past—this year might provide a similar finale.
As for Tirreno-Adriatico, we expected a clash between breakaways, sprints, and the weather. So far, all has progressed as expected with a breakaway succeeding in Stage 1—Milram got another win from Linus Gerdemann—and sprinters finding success in Stages 2 and 3 with Tom Boonen and Daniele Bennati taking the victories. As for the overall, Bennati holds the lead by a mere 4 seconds over Gerdemann and Boonen.
Tomorrow’s stage might produce an exciting arrivo—the last 8 kilometers are quite difficult, with two ascents containing pitches over 15%. Look for a strongman to take the win, possibly a rider like Philippe Gilbert or Filippo Pozzato. Cadel Evans lurks back in 9th-place on GC; a strong finish from him could put BMC atop the podium and into an overall leader’s jersey for the first time this season. Sunday’s Stage 5 offers an interesting finish as well. The line comes 1km after a short, but sharp climb with an average gradient of 15% (it’s steepest section is 20%). This might be an even better day for the men we’ve already mentioned—if their teams can set them up well coming into final 2000 meters.
It looks like we’ll have some tough choices to make Saturday and Sunday with several options for live viewing. Overall, it will be an exciting 2 days of racing, with almost of the favorites ready to shine.
And what about you? What do you expect to see happen this weekend? Share your comments below.
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