Monday Musette - Roubaix Wrap-Up

All Photos by Tim Vanwichelen

Admit it, you found yesterday’s race a bit boring. Unless Cancellara happens to be your favorite rider, there was something a bit anti-climatic about the way he quickly and authoritatively disposed of his competition, motoring away from them all with a little less than 50 kilometers remaining in the race. There was no drama, no tension, and no tactics; he simply picked his moment, and rode off to victory.

1. But let’s not allow our unfulfilled expectations to prevent us from giving Spartacus his due. His ride yesterday was nothing short of astounding, the kind of dominating performance we see in a classic only once every 20 years or so. As we did after his win in Flanders, we must credit Cancellara’s team for providing him with a stress-free ride to the race’s decisive phases. Saxo Bank controlled the peloton for much of the day, at one point having 7 men spread across the front of the leading peloton. Interestingly, the man widely assumed to be Cancellara’s strongest teammate, Matti Breschel, disappeared just as things got interesting. But in the end, the day belonged to Fabian Cancellara, a truly worthy winner, and the second Swiss rider to complete the Flanders-Roubaix Double. The question now is whether or not Cancellara will take a shot at the Amstel Gold Race and Liege-Bastogne-Liege. Given what we’ve seen, I won’t discount his chances. Will you?

2. Thor Hushovd raced to a fine 2nd-place, the first of two Cervélo riders in the top-5. Thor overcame much this spring, ultimately going one better than his 3rd-place in last year’s edition. He rode a relatively quiet race, receiving some criticism for his apparent unwillingness to help Boonen chase Cancellara. While it cannot be explained why a team with two men in the group would seem so apprehensive, there’s the distinct possibility that they just had nothing to give. When you go back and watch the highlights, it’s clear that each rider was at his limit and doing everything he could just to hold the wheel directly in front of him. Congratulations as well to Thor’s teammate, Roger Hammond, for another great ride in Roubaix. Believe it or not, it’s not Hammond’s best result on the pavé though; he finished 3rd in 2004.

3. Juan Antonio Flecha put Team Sky on the podium in the team’s first foray into Hell with 3rd-place on the day. Overall, it’s the Spaniard’s third visit to the podium in Roubaix and his fifth finish inside the top-6. Sky’s pleased with the ride, but Flecha has to be wondering just what he has to do to win. His team did well to protect him into the race finale and he made no errors, tactical or otherwise. In the end, he simply succumbed to two stronger riders—nothing more, nothing less.

4. Tom Boonen was the day’s biggest loser, taking 5th in a race he was favored to win. Much can be said about Boonen’s performance—there’s a lot of blame to go around. First of all, Boonen’s Quick Step team left its leader far too isolated when the race began to intensify. Even before the Forest of Arenberg, Boonen was all but alone while his competitors—especially Cancellara—had several teammates at their sides. Heading into the final 60 kilometers with a relatively large group, Boonen’s anxiety began to show as he launched a series of unsuccessful attacks inside a span of about 10 kilometers. These were moves that should have been made by his teammates, but they were all too busy dropping-out, crashing, or chasing back to the front. Had Boonen some help in softening the front of the field, he might have had the legs to go with Cancellara’s race-winning attack moments later. Had he been paying attention, that is.

In the end, it’s easy to fault Boonen for a mistake many might have made. The road was wide, the group was tired, and a small group had just escaped to give the group some purpose. Surrounded by other favorites, it was—he thought—the ideal time to slip to the back, grab a drink, stretch his legs, and follow wheels for a bit. While Cancellara certainly wasn’t planning to attack at such a moment, once he looked back and saw Tommeke’s poor placement, he had to take his chance.
Boonen chased valiantly upon realizing the severity of the moment—he was clearly riding at a level better than his companions—but in the end it wasn’t enough to close the gap created during his moment of inattention. Overall, Boonen’s spring was one most riders would love to have had; but for a man boasting such an impressive resume, it’s a disappointment.

5. Bjorn Leukemans continued his impressive run with a 6th-place finish, two spots below his best-ever result in Roubaix. Watching Leukemans bury himself to hold Cancellara’s wheel is perhaps the best highlight of all the cobbled classics. As for his fist pound, I’m not sure Leukemans was responding to Cancellara’s speed as much as he was expressing his frustrations with a front tire that was losing air and a moto that seemed slow to accelerate. (Here’s a great link to a video of the entire sequence--feel free to form your own assumptions.) Regardless, hats-off to Leukemans—let’s see what he does in Amstel.

6. Filippo Pozzato came home in 7th-place, taking the Ballerini Prize as first Italian finisher. It was a good result for the Italian, but one that only begs the question as to what he could have accomplished had he not been hit with the flu in the week leading up to Flanders. The black kit was a nice touch, if for no other reason than it softened the effect of those god-awful Lazer helmet covers.

7. As for Leif Hoste, he can at least say he tried. His attack with Leukemans and Sebastien Hinault set-up Cancellara’s winning attack. His 8th-place finish is a solid result; but looking at the competition, it’s tough to see him ever getting the win he so craves.

Looking down the rest of the finishers from Sunday—which is easy to do considering there were only 74 of them—there are few highlights:

8. George Hincapie was literally right next to Cancellara when the Swiss rider snuck up the left side of the road. I took some heat for touting George’s chances in the days before the race; now it appears I need to read the writing on the wall. One comment yesterday compared George to Levi Leipheimer, another man known more for his misses than his hits. After another Roubaix where George seemed able to do little more than follow, it’s looking like the comparison might be appropriate. I’m sorry George, but maybe Roubaix is one nut you’ll never crack. George’s BMC teammates fared no better; none of them completed the race.

9. Other non-finishers included Peter Sagan and Lars Boom, while Stijn Devolder—after another day spent at or off the back—could manage no better than 42nd.

10. As for Garmin, we expected big things from Tyler Farrar and his colleagues—what we got was Martijn Maaskant in 22nd, the team’s only finisher.

On a day of sunshine and dry conditions, a strong headwind is the most common excuse for the attrition—that and the other-worldly exploits of a rider enjoying the best form of his career. Domination might be boring, but it never fails to impress.

Enjoy your Monday—share your thoughts below.

Paris-Roubaix - 2010 Preview (For Real This Time...)

All Photos by Tim Vanwichelen

While last year I took an early stab at predicting the favorites for this year's race, I've saved the real Preview for the last minute. The last few weeks have given us time to separate the men from the boys, hence a smaller list than usual of men capable taking the Queen of the Classics. Here we go:

5-Stone Favorites

Last spring, sickness and injury took their toll on Fabian Cancellara, possibly a result of an early season trip to the rainy and cold Tour of California. As a result, the Swiss Champion rode a rather anonymous classics campaign, abandoning the Tour of Flanders after a broken chain on the Koppenburg and spending most of Roubaix in the service of his team. But Spartacus is back this year—in a big way. After winning the E3 Prijs Vlaanderen and the Tour of Flanders—an impressive double in its own right—Cancellara now heads to Roubaix as the top favorite to become only the second non-Belgian (and coincidentally, the second Swiss rider) to add the impressive Flanders-Roubaix double to his palmares as well. Cancellara is obviously in the form of his life and he has enjoyed past success on the pavé (he won the race in 2006 and has several high finishes on his resume). Perhaps more importantly, Cancellara has the confidence from knowing he defeated his main rival, Tom Boonen, twice in the last two weeks—in races considered Boonen’s home turf. All that aside, Cancellara’s biggest asset is his team. With experienced domestiques including Stuart O’Grady (the 2007 Roubaix winner), Baden Cooke, and Frank Hoj, look to see Saxo Bank massed at the front of the peloton well into the race’s final phases. Better still, Cancellara has a lieutenant strong enough the race himself—Matti Breschel. Combine condition, experience, confidence, and team with a dash of luck, and Paris-Roubaix is Cancellara’s race to lose.

It’s to hard to believe that Quick Step’s Tom Boonen comes into this year’s Paris-Roubaix as a slight underdog considering he’s the two-time defending champion and the winner of three of the last five editions. Boonen’s also took second in Milan-San Remo, the E3 Prijs Vlaanderen, and last Sunday’s Tour of Flanders—an impressive haul for most riders. That said, there’s just one thing separating Boonen from being a shoo-in to take a record-tying fourth Roubaix: Fabian Cancellara. To beat Spartacus, Boonen needs to ride with confidence and a bit of luck to go with the form that’s obviously there. He’ll also need more support from his team than he received last week. The world’s fastest time trialist, Cancellara won Flanders partly because he was able to isolate Boonen early, forcing him to ride mano a mano in what was essentially a two-man time trial to the foot of the Muur. His legs clearly spent from the sustained power output, Boonen was unable to respond to Cancellara’s inevitable surge. Tomorrow, Boonen will need his teammates, notably Stijn Devolder, to ease the pressure on their captain before the race enters its crucial sectors—especially since Cancellara’s team seems to be much stronger. If Boonen can exit the Arenberg Forest with at least 2 or 3 teammates at his side, he’ll be in good shape; if he’s isolated early though, it could mean the end of his terrific run at Roubaix.

4-Stone Favorites

The next two riders on the list come to this year’s edition of the Hell of the North with new teams and fine condition—two things they’ll need to overcome Cancellara and Boonen—and years of near misses.

Team Sky’s Juan Antonio Flecha is a rider unafraid to attack in Paris-Roubaix, but bad luck, poor team support, and foolish choices have often prevented him from taking the win. A victory in this year’s Omloop Het Nieuwsblad seemed to indicate that Flecha—thanks to the support of a powerful Team Sky—had finally shrugged the cobbled monkey from his back. However, missed chances in the E3 Prijs and the Tour of Flanders have some wondering if Flecha’s Omloop was more a result of timing than a signal of bigger things to come. That said, I think Flecha can win this race. Roubaix’s always suited him more than Flanders—he’s a powerful rider, capable of the long, sustained in-the-saddle efforts from which Roubaix winners are born. Furthermore, he has a talented team entirely devoted to getting him the win. If Flecha’s able to take advantage of what might certainly become a two-man staring contest between Cancellara and Boonen, he could ride away to take the biggest win of his career—and the first cobbled monument ever to go to a Spaniard.

BMC’s George Hincapie is next on our list of favorites, and is another man hoping a new team and some incredible form might propel him to the win that’s eluded him throughout his career. Hincapie’s progressed nicely through the classics, following his 4th place in Ghent-Wevelgem with a 6th place in the Tour of Flanders. Hincapie has indeed fielded some criticism for what seems to be a penchant for missing the “big move”—Sunday’s Ronde seemed to add fuel to the fire. Optimists like me hope last Sunday was just an indication that Big George is peaking just in time for Roubaix, a race a bit more suited to his powerful style. He enters Sunday as Co-captain with Marcus Burghardt, a man who could certainly ease the pressure on George in a race where he’s often found himself alone earlier than most. Alessandro Ballan would have been another valuable asset, but he’s been scratched following a “suspension” due to his rumored involvement in the Mantova doping investigation. Like Flecha, Hincapie needs to take advantage of a possible Cancellara-Boonen stalemate should the two top favorites prove unwilling to take the bull by the horns. If George can pull it off, it will be the finest day of his long career, and quite possibly all he needs to call it one too.

Our last 4-Stone favorite again faces the difficult task of trying to win the race for himself while riding in support of more-favored rider. Saxo Bank’s Matti Breschel appeared to be the strongest man in last Sunday’s Tour of Flanders before a mechanical and a botched bike change ruined his day. Now he comes to Roubaix eager to prove to himself and his suitors for 2011 that he’s the real deal. If he plays his cards right, he might just get his chance, as a Roubaix is a race where loyal teammates often find themselves in winning situations—especially riding for heavy favorites. (Just ask Servais Knaven.) Remember, Breschel finished 10th in Roubaix last year, a result he earned more or less on his own merits. With such a crowded situation at the top of the field, Breschel’s just the type of man to take advantage of the logjam to win it all for himself—if he can ride with more calm and poise than he did last week.

3-Stone Favorites 

While perhaps, a step below Matti Breschel, Stijn Devolder’s another rider who could benefit from his team captain’s status as top favorite. The last two years, Devolder’s come to Roubaix on the downswing following wins in the previous Sunday’s Tour of Flanders. His form seems a bit late this year though, something that might just push him over the edge in Roubaix—a race where he’s showed some potential in the past, albeit with nothing to show for it. This year, with dry conditions and a supporting role, Devolder might just add a Paris-Roubaix to his two Flanders victories. If he does, look for Quick Step’s post-race press conference to contain more fireworks and/or icy stares than the race itself.

Along with Hincapie, I’ll be rooting for Katusha’s Filippo Pozzato to win tomorrow’s race. While enjoying the form of his life heading into the Tour of Flanders, Pozzato was forced to fly home with a nasty flu during the 3-Days of DePanne. Pozzato’s back now—he finished Wednesday’s Scheldeprijs—but admits to being a step below where he was two weeks ago. While it remains to be seen where exactly his fitness lies, it’s clear that Pozzato feels no pressure for Sunday—and that’s a good thing. Roubaix’s a race where anxiety and nervousness can take their toll—cases in point: Flecha and Hincapie. If Pozzato feels good and has a chance to play his card, he could go one step higher than last year’s 2nd place, becoming the first man to win as Italian Champion since Andrea Tafi in 1999.

I guess there’s something about Roubaix and near misses. Cervelo Test Team’s Thor Hushovd could have won last’s year edition had he not crashed on the Le Carrefour de l'Arbre sector, 20 kilometers from the end. This year, Hushovd’s not had the season he and his team were expecting, with sickness, injury, and poor form taking their toll on what was hoped would be a breakthrough season the team. That said, as many of the favorites certainly know, Hushovd’s not to be discounted. He’ll make the splits during the middle third of the race; it’s the final sectors that will determine whether Mighty Thor becomes the second Scandinavian winner of the Hell of the North. The good weather works in his favor, eliminating one variable from an already chaotic and nervous event.

Speaking of second chances, Omega Pharma-Lotto’s Leif Hoste might be known more for his missed opportunities in the Tour of Flanders—he’s finished second three times. This year, Hoste rode a solid Ronde in support of Phillippe Gilbert; as a result he’ll have a strong team including Greg Van Avermaet and Jurgen Roelandts at his disposal in Roubaix. Another rider who could capitalize on hesitation at the top, Hoste will need to demonstrate a willingness to make the race for himself should the opportunity present itself—something we have yet to see from the Belgian. Lotto’s the only team not to have won a race this year—there’s no better time than now for Hoste to end that streak.

Marcus Burghardt has quietly proven himself to be one of the most consistent riders in the cobbled classics over the past few years. He’s overlooked by virtue of the fact that his breakthrough win preceded several top finishes; usually the opposite is the case. Technically the Co-captain of the BMC squad taking the start in Compiegne, Burghardt might have to defer to George Hincapie’s latest attempt to add Paris-Roubaix to his resume. That said, like Breschel and Devolder, Burghardt might find a supporting role just the leash he needs to position himself for a win—especially if other teams give their lieutenants similar opportunities. And with Hincapie known for his “it’s all about the team” mentality, he’ll have an advantage over men with more jealous leaders.

2-Stone Favorites

I can’t understand why Tyler Farrar’s not getting more attention following his solid run of results leading into this weekend’s race. With top-10 finishes in Ghent-Wevelgem and the Tour of Flanders, Farrar clearly has the legs to handle 200-plus kilometers of hard racing and still have something in the tank for the finale. His win in Wednesday’s Scheldepriis indicates his form is still rising. While Farrar has said he’s riding in support of Martijn Maaskant and Johan Vansummeren, I see those comments as nothing more than a smokescreen as Farrar’s clearly a step above his two Benelux teammates. Do I think Farrar can win? No. Do I see him finishing in the top-10 and possibly top-5? Absolutely. While many view Farrar as a true field sprinter, I see him as more of classics rider—like Museeuw early in his career. That’s a bold comparison, I know; but after Sunday, it might just prove prophetic.

Lars Boom leads Rabobank into Sunday along with Joost Posthuma. While Boom plays down the role his cyclocross background will have, I think it merits at least some attention for the confidence it could give the Dutchman heading into the race’s rougher patches of pavé. While Boom might still be a few years away from being a serious candidate for the win, he could find himself in a breakaway that might propel to a top-10 result. For a nation starved for a true cobble-contender, that’s an accomplishment worthy of merit.

1-Stone Dark Horses

Peter Sagan was inexplicably left home for a few weeks following his two stage wins in Paris-Nice. While I understand the need to protect the young Slovakian’s development (he’s only 20), I can’t understand why he didn’t at least deserve a start in Milan-San Remo. I guess management was afraid of Daniele Bennati being upstaged. Regardless, Sunday is Sagan’s first start in a classic—what a stage for a debut! And while the odds are overwhelmingly against him, consider these 3 things: Sagan has proven unfazed by the top-level competition he’s faced so far this season; he finished 2nd in the 2008 junior Paris-Roubaix; and he’s a former World Junior Cyclocross Champion. While he might be forced to ride for Manuel Quinziato and Daniel Oss, by the end of the day Sunday, expect to see Sagan’s name near the top of the results.

Like the now-retired Wilfred Peeters, Matthew Hayman is a super-domestique deserving of one big day. He rode an aggressive race in last week’s Tour of Flanders, at one time escaping from the front only to be caught by the eventual winning move. A rider capable of high wattage outputs on the pavé, Hayman is more of a sentimental favorite than anything else. At the end of the day, he’ll defer to his captain Juan Antonio Flecha; but once his work his done, a top-10 finish is certainly within the Australian’s reach.

Others to watch include BBox's Steve Chainel, another talented young star who's proven his mettle thus far this spring; Bernhard Eisel a savvy rider benefiting from several departures from HTC; and Bjorn Leukemans, a man hoping to show the ASO just what it's missing by not inviting his Vacansoleil team to the Tour.

So there you have it, Pavé’s 2010 Paris-Roubaix Preview. I’s interesting how closely it compares to last year’s imaginary 2010 Preview. Will the result resembles last year’s as well? Only time will tell.

For now, enjoy the race—you can follow Pavé on Twitter for live commentary—and share your comments and picks below.

Monday Musette - Milan-San Remo Wrap-up

Saturday’s Milan-San Remo went-off without a hitch--despite the weather’s best attempts to ruin the day. After 298 kilometers of racing in cold, rainy conditions, it was a Spaniard who ended-up with the victory. Funny how two men from warmer, sunnier climates have taken wins in two of the season’s grimiest races thus far. Here’s what we learned:

1. I remember watching the 1999 World Championship Road Race in Verona, Italy with friends on a television in my apartment in Leuven, Belgium. When a young, unknown Spaniard surprised a select group of favorites including Francesco Casagrande, Frank Vandenbroucke, and Jan Ullrich, we all felt a bit ripped-off. But after 2 more World Titles, 7 Vuelta stage wins, 4 Tour stage wins, 1 Ghent-Wevelgem, and now 3 Milan-San Remo’s I think it’s time for me to officially apologize to Oscar Freire for years of underrating him. With the changes to this year’s Belgian calendar, Freire has a terrific opportunity to take yet another win in Sunday’s Ghent-Wevelgem—especially since many of his main rivals might choose to take Saturday’s E3 Prijs more seriously. Congratulations, Oscar. I won’t overlook you again—at least for one more week.

2. Tom Boonen was satisfied with a respectable 2nd place in San Remo—even though Freire blew his doors off in the sprint. What impressed me most was Boonen’s positioning on the Cipressa and Poggio—he rode attentively and comfortably at the front of the peloton, consistently placed within the first 10 or so riders. Clearly his form for Flanders and Roubaix has arrived. Unfortunately, I wonder if he might find himself too heavily marked in Flanders to take a third win. On the other hand, it’s essentially every man for himself on the pavé of Paris-Roubaix—at this point only Pozzato, Hushovd, and Cancellara look to have the condition to ride with him there. Then again, those races are still 2 and 3 weeks away—maybe it’s too soon to speculate?

3. As for Pippo Pozzato, he seemed to ride as if he had read the “This will come down to a sprint” writing on the wall. Knowing he had relatively little chances against sprinters such as Freire, Boonen, Bennati, and Hushovd, he seemed content to treat the race’s finale as an opportunity to test his legs on the attack. To be honest, when he rolled-off the front in pursuit of Vincenzo Nibali with 2km to go, I thought he would take his second victory—too bad the rest had other things in mind. At Flanders though, they might find catching up to Pozzato an entirely different enterprise.

4. And speaking of Hushovd, he made the leading group, ultimately sprinting to a slid 6th-place finish. With Flanders and Roubaix still weeks away, Thor looks to have starting his crescendo at just the right time. Unfortunately, it was also announced that he won’t have the support of Heinrich Haussler; his knee injury seems to be worse than expected, keeping out of races until later this spring.

5. Philippe Gilbert’s attack on the Poggio and subsequent 9th place finish confirmed his candidacy for a win in Flanders—Roubaix’s not very suited to his strengths. While his attack had little effect on the race itself, it served noticed to everyone—including the Belgian press—that he’s not to be overlooked.

6. And finally, we must mention Fabian Cancellara, another rider who led a quiet build-up to Saturday’s race. Spartacus rode comfortably with the lead group, finishing the day in 17th place. Like Hushovd, he appears on-track for a solid cobbled campaign.

7. Moving away from the pre-race favorites, Quick Step’s Sylvain Chavanel looks to be peaking quite nicely. If Boonen finds himself too heavily marked, Chavanel could play Devolder’s role in Flanders, possibly getting the win we all know he deserves. Regardless, his condition means teams will have two Quick Step riders with which to contend; an advantage few teams are able to match.

8. BMC’s Marcus Burghardt was his team’s only rider to finish with the leaders. As he seems to be peaking a bit sooner than his teammates Ballan and Hincapie (both of whom came in with the second group, 1:40 behind), look for him to impress this Sunday in Ghent-Wevelgem, a race he won in 2007. The German has also recorded top-5 finishes in both Dwars door Vlaanderen and the E3 Prijs in the past—it’s a shame they weren’t invited to Dwars, but it still could be a good weekend for the squad.

9. As we expected, Colnago’s Sacha Modolo finishing 4th on Saturday, continuing his string of top results from Tirreno-Adriatico. I know it’s a bit early to talk transfers, but look for him to be snapped-up by a team with an aging sprinter before next season—Lampre and Katusha might be possibilities—especially if he manages to grab a stage win or two in this year’s Giro.

10. Liquigas rode a fantastic race for Daniele Bennati with Vincenzo Nibali and Roman Kreuziger playing roles as prominent as we expected. Unfortunately, Bennati could manage no better than 5th. Clearly he’s a second-tier field sprinter, able to win only when better, faster competition is absent. Stick to Tirreno, DePanne, and the Vuelta, my friend. And by the way, give Liquigas the first “What Were They Thinking?” Award of 2010 for leaving Peter Sagan—a double stage-winner in Paris-Nice—at home.

11. Unfortunately, Tyler Farrar’s performance Saturday might put him in the same category as Bennati—although Bennati made it to the finish with the lead group. If Farrar’s team can’t position him well in a finale as straightforward as Milan-San Remo’s then what will they do in the cobbled classics, races with much more difficult profiles?

Two final thoughts from Saturday:

12. What the heck was Stefano Garzelli doing on the Poggio? Several sources claimed he attacked, but in my opinion he simply set a hard pace—but for whom?

13. Did you notice the prevalence of super-deep carbon fiber rear wheels? If this is indeed a new trend, I don’t get it. But I’m like that.

Time permitting, I’ve got a big week planned for Pavé. Here’s the schedule for the next several days:

Tuesday: Dwars Door Vlaanderen Preview
Wednesday: 5 Questions for the Cobbled Classics
Thursday: Dwars Door Vlaanderen Wrap-up/What We Learned
Friday: Weekend Preview(s) E3 and Criterium International
Saturday: Ghent-Wevelgem Preview

It’s an ambitious program, but I think I’m up for it—at least I hope so.

Thanks for reading! Share your comments below

Milan-San Remo Preview

It’s a bit of shame that when we talk about the favorites for Milan-San Remo we look at sprinters.  Maybe it’s just the way the sport’s evolved over time, but it seems that the likelihood of a true breakaway succeeding gets slimmer and slimmer every year.  And worse, while it used to be that only those sprinters able to make it over the Cipressa and Poggio would have a chance for the victory, now just about everyone has the ability to make it to the final straightaway down the Via Roma with a chance for the win.  Then again, any race approaching 300 kilometers in length has to be taken seriously—no matter how the victor gets it done.

Regardless, La Primavera’s a beautiful race that any rider would be pleased to win. This year it once again looks as if sprinters will rule the day with Quick Step, Katusha, Garmin, Liquigas, and Sky all likely to work to bring a relatively intact group to the line.  Interestingly, many of these teams also possess some of the more dangerous threats to win from a breakaway—I wonder what the result will be should a select group of lieutenants escape before the line.  Would Quick Step chase down a group containing Chavanel?  Would Rabobank bring back a break containing Boom or Nuyens?  What will Katusha, Sky, and Liquigas do if Kolobnev, Flecha, and Kreuziger find themselves with a sizable gap at the top of the Poggio?  And let’s not forget the Acqua Sapone’s and Androni Giocatoli’s of the world—they have no other choice than to attack, attack, and attack some more.  These teams will make things interesting should the bigger squads prove resistant to animating the race.

Truly, the joy in Milan-San Remo comes from watching these scenarios unfold.  So without further ado, let’s take a look at the favorites for Saturday’s Milan-San Remo, the first true classic of the season:

Fotoreporter Sirotti

 

5-Stone Favorites

Tom Boonen - Quick Step only has 4 wins so far this season and they’re nothing to write home about.  But that could change Saturday, as Tom Boonen heads into Milan-San Remo as the odds-on favorite to take the win. Boonen hasn’t been shy about his desire to win Milan-San Remo, and judging from the form he’s displayed over the past few weeks he’s clearly ready to do it.  He’s powerful to make it over the Cipressa and the Poggio with the lead group.  With a unified team dedicated to getting him to the line first, Boonen just might add a Milan-San Remo to his 2 Tours of Flanders and 3 Paris-Roubaix victories—quite an impressive classics resume!

Fotoreporter Sirotti

Filippo Pozzato – Like Quick Step, Katusha’s won only a few races so far this year, but don’t let that fool you—they have one of the most talented squads in the professional peloton. Filippo Pozzato already has one Milan-San Remo win under his belt—he’s hoping to add another.  But while the wins haven’t come for Pippo yet this year, he’s made his presence known at the front of races including the Omloop Het Nieuwsblad, L’Eroica, and several stages in Tirreno-Adriatico.  Milan-San Remo is the first target in what Pozzato hopes will be his finest spring yet—one that he hopes will include victories in the Tour of Flanders and Paris-Roubaix as well.  Look for this to be the beginning of a terrific duel between Pozzato and his Belgian nemesis, one that could last the next 3 weeks.

Fotoreporter Sirotti

Edvald Boasson Hagen - Of all the teams making splashes this past off-season, Team Sky appears to be getting the quickest returns on its investment. Hagen’s already won several races this year, including the final stage of Tirreno-Adriatico earlier this week, and his powerful sprint makes him a top favorite for Milan-San Remo. Hagen’s also an attacker though—if he looks around after the Poggio and doesn’t like what he sees, don’t be surprised to see him attack before the line in a fashion similar to Tchmil and Cancellara when they won on the Via Roma.

4-Stone Favorites

Tyler Farrar - Garmin comes to Milan-San Remo hoping Tyler Farrar can get the team its first win in a major spring classic.  Farrar will need to make it over the Cipressa and the Poggio in the lead group while hoping some of the competition—like Hushovd and Tom Boonen—does not to have a chance for the victory.  And while he might not have to worry about Hushovd, Boonen appears to be at the peak of his fitness.  Still, Farrar’s beaten Boonen before; if things go right for him and his team, Garmin might just find itself on the top step of the podium.

Oscar Freire – Freire’s had a quiet build-up to this year’s Milan-San Remo, but he’s a rider whose experience cannot be ignored.  With a talented team supporting him, Freire could easily take his third Milan-San Remo title.  Lars Boom and Nick Nuyens are two excellent wild cards; both would make excellent decoys in the race’s later phases.  Look for one of them, likely Boom, to attack on the Cipressa, ultimately forcing other teams to chase.  Freire’s greatest strength is his ability to handle the hills; he’s usually the last of the sprinters to be dropped on climbs like the Cipressa and Poggio.  He’s also extremely cunning; of all the riders to have received little press this week, he’s the one to take most seriously.

Philippe Gilbert – Omega Pharma - Lotto’s Gilbert won two classics in a week last autumn when he rode to dominating victories in Paris-Tours (a race for the sprinters) and the Tour of Lombardy (a race catered to climbers).  Like many riders, Gilbert’s had a quiet season thus far, slowly riding himself into form in Qatar, Oman, and Paris-Nice.  A true all-rounder, Gilbert’s a legitimate contender in just about every major classic save Paris-Roubaix.  His team’s full of strong men capable of keeping Gilbert fresh for the two climbs late in the race.  If he makes it over the Poggio in a group with a gap to the pure sprinters, he could add a third classic to his resumé.  He’s also candidate for a last-second dash for the line before the sprint has started.

Daniele Bennati - Tom Boonen’s pick for victory, Daniele Bennati comes to the race in peak form.  He won Stage 3 of Tirreno, beating Petacchi, Farrar, and Flecha in the process.  Like Freire, Bennati has a talented team of men surrounding him, two of them—Vincenzo Nibali and Roman Kreuziger—are perfect candidates for peloton-weakening attacks on the Cipressa and Poggio.  Were I driving the car, Nibali would be given the task of attacking and/or covering on the Cipressa while Kreuziger would give it his all on the Poggio.  The rest would ride support for Bennati, keeping him out of trouble and making sure he’s well-placed for an ensuing sprint.  If Bennati hits the Via Roma in good position, he could bring home the win for the tifosi.

Thor Hushovd - The Mighty Thor finished 3rd here last year—he essentially won the “field” sprint behind Haussler and Cavendish—but this year his fitness has been a bit of a mystery.  He was all but absent at the Omloop Het Nieuwsblad, but then practically rode himself into the ground at Kuurne.  In Tirreno he failed to wow us, but that might just be a smokescreen.  Without the injured Heinrich Haussler, Hushovd loses a valuable ally—other teams will be able to key on him exclusively should he find himself isolated.  Still, Thor’s not someone to ignore, especially in a race often ending in a bunch sprint.

3-Stone Favorites

Marcus Burghardt – At this point in the season, Burghardt seems to be BMC’s best shot for victory tomorrow.  He rode a solid Tirreno-Adriatico, even making an appearance in the break with Tom Boonen during Stage 6.  With Hincapie, Kroon, and Ballan riding support, he could be granted a relatively stress-free ride to the finish where he could surprise everyone in a sprint.

Alessandro Petacchi – Petacchi’s gracefully entering into the twilight of his career having made the move from LPR to Lampre.  With Danilo Hondo providing lead-outs, he seems to have regained some of the speed that saw him win this race in 2005.  That said, despite several early-season successes, I think Petacchi’s a step below riders like Boonen, Hagen, and even Oscar Freire—especially after his crash before Tirreno.  A top-5 finish might be a more reasonable expectation for this aging star.

2-Star Favorites

Bernhard Eisel – I might regret it by tomorrow afternoon, but I don’t consider Mark Cavendish one of the favorites for tomorrow’s race.  He’s had an inconsistent season thus far, with no wins having been added to his name.  HTC’s best chance for a win might just be one of Cavendish’s lead-out men, Bernhard Eisel.  Eisel’s career lacks a big win, but don’t let that fool you; he’s a talented sprinter who often is often asked to ride for the bigger names within his team.  Can he win?  That might be a bit of a stretch, but a good result is certainly well within his reach.  Watch for his teammate Matthew Goss as well, the young Australian is on the way up and could mix it up at the finish as well.

Matti Breschel – Saxo Bank’s had a quiet season thus far, and while many think Cancellara’s their top man for MSR, I think he’s a better bet for the cobbled classics in a few weeks time.  Saxo’s better challenge might come from Matti Breschel, someone who has proven abilities in a sprint.  Like Petacchi and Eisel, Breschel’s a bit of a long shot, but surprises have happened here before.

Maxim Iglinski & Enrico Gasparotto - Don’t be fooled into thinking Astana’s a one-trick pony.  They have men not named “Alberto” who have scored wins so far this season and the team has ridden aggressively in every race it has entered.  Two riders deserve mention as outside favorites for Milan-San Remo: Maxim Iglinsky and Enrico Gasparotto.  Iglinsky won this year’s L’Eroica, Italy’s version of Paris-Roubaix, and Gasparotto won a stage in Tirreno-Adriatico.  A win in San Remo would certainly be a surprise—but then again, stranger things have happened.

Mattia Gavazzi & Sacha Modolo – Colnago’s talented pair of sprinters scored some top finishes in Tirreno, look for one of them in the top-10 on Saturday, particularly if other riders sit-up once they feel they’re out of contention.  These aren’t necessarily riders worth placing bets on, but when you’re on the Sunday group ride, you can say you weren’t surprised to see them in the front.

Stefano Garzelli & Michele Scarponi – It’s been a while since we saw an attack from the Poggio survive to the finish, but if it were to happen this year, I expect one or both of the top-2 men from Tirreno to be involved.  Their teams don’t possess the sprint strength of other contenders and they’ll have free rein to try their hand in a breakaway.  In Italy’s most important one-day race, look for both to attack in front of their home audience.

Final Prediction?

Certain races start to follow scripts over time, and Milan-San Remo’s proven no different over the past decade.  This year I think we’ll see a race similar to 2009, but with different players in the leading roles.  I think Boasson Hagen will play Heinrich Haussler, perhaps trying a last-second move rather than take his chance against a large group of field sprinters.  Like Haussler last year, he’ll be caught just before the line—by Tom Boonen.  Tyler Farrar will take advantage of the chaos to take third, taking Hushovd’s place from last year.

As for Pippo Pozzato, I think he’ll descend the Poggio with the leaders, but might not feel comfortable taking chances to take the victory.  They’ll be too many riders, and he’ll perhaps be isolated or poorly positioned coming off the Poggio.  In the end he’ll play it safe, lest he risk his chances in the cobbled classics still to come.

So that’s my Top-3: Boonen gets the win over Hagen and Farrar.

What about you?  Who are your picks for tomorrow?  Share them below.