Paris-Roubaix - 2010 Preview (For Real This Time...)

All Photos by Tim Vanwichelen

While last year I took an early stab at predicting the favorites for this year's race, I've saved the real Preview for the last minute. The last few weeks have given us time to separate the men from the boys, hence a smaller list than usual of men capable taking the Queen of the Classics. Here we go:

5-Stone Favorites

Last spring, sickness and injury took their toll on Fabian Cancellara, possibly a result of an early season trip to the rainy and cold Tour of California. As a result, the Swiss Champion rode a rather anonymous classics campaign, abandoning the Tour of Flanders after a broken chain on the Koppenburg and spending most of Roubaix in the service of his team. But Spartacus is back this year—in a big way. After winning the E3 Prijs Vlaanderen and the Tour of Flanders—an impressive double in its own right—Cancellara now heads to Roubaix as the top favorite to become only the second non-Belgian (and coincidentally, the second Swiss rider) to add the impressive Flanders-Roubaix double to his palmares as well. Cancellara is obviously in the form of his life and he has enjoyed past success on the pavé (he won the race in 2006 and has several high finishes on his resume). Perhaps more importantly, Cancellara has the confidence from knowing he defeated his main rival, Tom Boonen, twice in the last two weeks—in races considered Boonen’s home turf. All that aside, Cancellara’s biggest asset is his team. With experienced domestiques including Stuart O’Grady (the 2007 Roubaix winner), Baden Cooke, and Frank Hoj, look to see Saxo Bank massed at the front of the peloton well into the race’s final phases. Better still, Cancellara has a lieutenant strong enough the race himself—Matti Breschel. Combine condition, experience, confidence, and team with a dash of luck, and Paris-Roubaix is Cancellara’s race to lose.

It’s to hard to believe that Quick Step’s Tom Boonen comes into this year’s Paris-Roubaix as a slight underdog considering he’s the two-time defending champion and the winner of three of the last five editions. Boonen’s also took second in Milan-San Remo, the E3 Prijs Vlaanderen, and last Sunday’s Tour of Flanders—an impressive haul for most riders. That said, there’s just one thing separating Boonen from being a shoo-in to take a record-tying fourth Roubaix: Fabian Cancellara. To beat Spartacus, Boonen needs to ride with confidence and a bit of luck to go with the form that’s obviously there. He’ll also need more support from his team than he received last week. The world’s fastest time trialist, Cancellara won Flanders partly because he was able to isolate Boonen early, forcing him to ride mano a mano in what was essentially a two-man time trial to the foot of the Muur. His legs clearly spent from the sustained power output, Boonen was unable to respond to Cancellara’s inevitable surge. Tomorrow, Boonen will need his teammates, notably Stijn Devolder, to ease the pressure on their captain before the race enters its crucial sectors—especially since Cancellara’s team seems to be much stronger. If Boonen can exit the Arenberg Forest with at least 2 or 3 teammates at his side, he’ll be in good shape; if he’s isolated early though, it could mean the end of his terrific run at Roubaix.

4-Stone Favorites

The next two riders on the list come to this year’s edition of the Hell of the North with new teams and fine condition—two things they’ll need to overcome Cancellara and Boonen—and years of near misses.

Team Sky’s Juan Antonio Flecha is a rider unafraid to attack in Paris-Roubaix, but bad luck, poor team support, and foolish choices have often prevented him from taking the win. A victory in this year’s Omloop Het Nieuwsblad seemed to indicate that Flecha—thanks to the support of a powerful Team Sky—had finally shrugged the cobbled monkey from his back. However, missed chances in the E3 Prijs and the Tour of Flanders have some wondering if Flecha’s Omloop was more a result of timing than a signal of bigger things to come. That said, I think Flecha can win this race. Roubaix’s always suited him more than Flanders—he’s a powerful rider, capable of the long, sustained in-the-saddle efforts from which Roubaix winners are born. Furthermore, he has a talented team entirely devoted to getting him the win. If Flecha’s able to take advantage of what might certainly become a two-man staring contest between Cancellara and Boonen, he could ride away to take the biggest win of his career—and the first cobbled monument ever to go to a Spaniard.

BMC’s George Hincapie is next on our list of favorites, and is another man hoping a new team and some incredible form might propel him to the win that’s eluded him throughout his career. Hincapie’s progressed nicely through the classics, following his 4th place in Ghent-Wevelgem with a 6th place in the Tour of Flanders. Hincapie has indeed fielded some criticism for what seems to be a penchant for missing the “big move”—Sunday’s Ronde seemed to add fuel to the fire. Optimists like me hope last Sunday was just an indication that Big George is peaking just in time for Roubaix, a race a bit more suited to his powerful style. He enters Sunday as Co-captain with Marcus Burghardt, a man who could certainly ease the pressure on George in a race where he’s often found himself alone earlier than most. Alessandro Ballan would have been another valuable asset, but he’s been scratched following a “suspension” due to his rumored involvement in the Mantova doping investigation. Like Flecha, Hincapie needs to take advantage of a possible Cancellara-Boonen stalemate should the two top favorites prove unwilling to take the bull by the horns. If George can pull it off, it will be the finest day of his long career, and quite possibly all he needs to call it one too.

Our last 4-Stone favorite again faces the difficult task of trying to win the race for himself while riding in support of more-favored rider. Saxo Bank’s Matti Breschel appeared to be the strongest man in last Sunday’s Tour of Flanders before a mechanical and a botched bike change ruined his day. Now he comes to Roubaix eager to prove to himself and his suitors for 2011 that he’s the real deal. If he plays his cards right, he might just get his chance, as a Roubaix is a race where loyal teammates often find themselves in winning situations—especially riding for heavy favorites. (Just ask Servais Knaven.) Remember, Breschel finished 10th in Roubaix last year, a result he earned more or less on his own merits. With such a crowded situation at the top of the field, Breschel’s just the type of man to take advantage of the logjam to win it all for himself—if he can ride with more calm and poise than he did last week.

3-Stone Favorites 

While perhaps, a step below Matti Breschel, Stijn Devolder’s another rider who could benefit from his team captain’s status as top favorite. The last two years, Devolder’s come to Roubaix on the downswing following wins in the previous Sunday’s Tour of Flanders. His form seems a bit late this year though, something that might just push him over the edge in Roubaix—a race where he’s showed some potential in the past, albeit with nothing to show for it. This year, with dry conditions and a supporting role, Devolder might just add a Paris-Roubaix to his two Flanders victories. If he does, look for Quick Step’s post-race press conference to contain more fireworks and/or icy stares than the race itself.

Along with Hincapie, I’ll be rooting for Katusha’s Filippo Pozzato to win tomorrow’s race. While enjoying the form of his life heading into the Tour of Flanders, Pozzato was forced to fly home with a nasty flu during the 3-Days of DePanne. Pozzato’s back now—he finished Wednesday’s Scheldeprijs—but admits to being a step below where he was two weeks ago. While it remains to be seen where exactly his fitness lies, it’s clear that Pozzato feels no pressure for Sunday—and that’s a good thing. Roubaix’s a race where anxiety and nervousness can take their toll—cases in point: Flecha and Hincapie. If Pozzato feels good and has a chance to play his card, he could go one step higher than last year’s 2nd place, becoming the first man to win as Italian Champion since Andrea Tafi in 1999.

I guess there’s something about Roubaix and near misses. Cervelo Test Team’s Thor Hushovd could have won last’s year edition had he not crashed on the Le Carrefour de l'Arbre sector, 20 kilometers from the end. This year, Hushovd’s not had the season he and his team were expecting, with sickness, injury, and poor form taking their toll on what was hoped would be a breakthrough season the team. That said, as many of the favorites certainly know, Hushovd’s not to be discounted. He’ll make the splits during the middle third of the race; it’s the final sectors that will determine whether Mighty Thor becomes the second Scandinavian winner of the Hell of the North. The good weather works in his favor, eliminating one variable from an already chaotic and nervous event.

Speaking of second chances, Omega Pharma-Lotto’s Leif Hoste might be known more for his missed opportunities in the Tour of Flanders—he’s finished second three times. This year, Hoste rode a solid Ronde in support of Phillippe Gilbert; as a result he’ll have a strong team including Greg Van Avermaet and Jurgen Roelandts at his disposal in Roubaix. Another rider who could capitalize on hesitation at the top, Hoste will need to demonstrate a willingness to make the race for himself should the opportunity present itself—something we have yet to see from the Belgian. Lotto’s the only team not to have won a race this year—there’s no better time than now for Hoste to end that streak.

Marcus Burghardt has quietly proven himself to be one of the most consistent riders in the cobbled classics over the past few years. He’s overlooked by virtue of the fact that his breakthrough win preceded several top finishes; usually the opposite is the case. Technically the Co-captain of the BMC squad taking the start in Compiegne, Burghardt might have to defer to George Hincapie’s latest attempt to add Paris-Roubaix to his resume. That said, like Breschel and Devolder, Burghardt might find a supporting role just the leash he needs to position himself for a win—especially if other teams give their lieutenants similar opportunities. And with Hincapie known for his “it’s all about the team” mentality, he’ll have an advantage over men with more jealous leaders.

2-Stone Favorites

I can’t understand why Tyler Farrar’s not getting more attention following his solid run of results leading into this weekend’s race. With top-10 finishes in Ghent-Wevelgem and the Tour of Flanders, Farrar clearly has the legs to handle 200-plus kilometers of hard racing and still have something in the tank for the finale. His win in Wednesday’s Scheldepriis indicates his form is still rising. While Farrar has said he’s riding in support of Martijn Maaskant and Johan Vansummeren, I see those comments as nothing more than a smokescreen as Farrar’s clearly a step above his two Benelux teammates. Do I think Farrar can win? No. Do I see him finishing in the top-10 and possibly top-5? Absolutely. While many view Farrar as a true field sprinter, I see him as more of classics rider—like Museeuw early in his career. That’s a bold comparison, I know; but after Sunday, it might just prove prophetic.

Lars Boom leads Rabobank into Sunday along with Joost Posthuma. While Boom plays down the role his cyclocross background will have, I think it merits at least some attention for the confidence it could give the Dutchman heading into the race’s rougher patches of pavé. While Boom might still be a few years away from being a serious candidate for the win, he could find himself in a breakaway that might propel to a top-10 result. For a nation starved for a true cobble-contender, that’s an accomplishment worthy of merit.

1-Stone Dark Horses

Peter Sagan was inexplicably left home for a few weeks following his two stage wins in Paris-Nice. While I understand the need to protect the young Slovakian’s development (he’s only 20), I can’t understand why he didn’t at least deserve a start in Milan-San Remo. I guess management was afraid of Daniele Bennati being upstaged. Regardless, Sunday is Sagan’s first start in a classic—what a stage for a debut! And while the odds are overwhelmingly against him, consider these 3 things: Sagan has proven unfazed by the top-level competition he’s faced so far this season; he finished 2nd in the 2008 junior Paris-Roubaix; and he’s a former World Junior Cyclocross Champion. While he might be forced to ride for Manuel Quinziato and Daniel Oss, by the end of the day Sunday, expect to see Sagan’s name near the top of the results.

Like the now-retired Wilfred Peeters, Matthew Hayman is a super-domestique deserving of one big day. He rode an aggressive race in last week’s Tour of Flanders, at one time escaping from the front only to be caught by the eventual winning move. A rider capable of high wattage outputs on the pavé, Hayman is more of a sentimental favorite than anything else. At the end of the day, he’ll defer to his captain Juan Antonio Flecha; but once his work his done, a top-10 finish is certainly within the Australian’s reach.

Others to watch include BBox's Steve Chainel, another talented young star who's proven his mettle thus far this spring; Bernhard Eisel a savvy rider benefiting from several departures from HTC; and Bjorn Leukemans, a man hoping to show the ASO just what it's missing by not inviting his Vacansoleil team to the Tour.

So there you have it, Pavé’s 2010 Paris-Roubaix Preview. I’s interesting how closely it compares to last year’s imaginary 2010 Preview. Will the result resembles last year’s as well? Only time will tell.

For now, enjoy the race—you can follow Pavé on Twitter for live commentary—and share your comments and picks below.

Monday Musette - Special Wednesday Edition

With so much going on this week, I thought a special edition of the Musette was in order.  Here we go:

1. Tyler Farrar won today’s Scheldeprijs, continuing the fine form he’s displayed so far during this year’s Belgian Classics. It’s Farrar’s second win of the season following his victory in Stage 3a of the 3-Days of DePanne. More importantly, it’s the young American’s fifth major top-10 result on Belgian soil this season following his 3rd-place finish in the Omloop Het Nieuwsblad, 9th-place in Ghent-Wevelgem, and 5th-place in the Tour of Flanders. All Tyler needs now is a solid finish in Sunday’s Paris-Roubaix to cap a fantastic spring for the Garmin rider. With Roubaix being a race known to favor the strong and powerful, Farrar’s streak might not be over.

As for the race itself, it pretty much went as expected. Filippo Pozzato was a last-minute addition to the start list; he finished in one of the front groups along with several other favorites for the Hell of the North on Sunday. Tom Boonen did hit the deck with about 37km to go, but was able to rejoin the leaders with enough time left to still finish 18th. I was a bit surprised to see Andre Greipel finish so poorly—especially after his team (and his mouth) worked so hard to position himself for the win.

2. Lost in the hoopla surrounding Sunday’s Tour of Flanders was an interesting Tweet from George Hincapie following some criticism he received from a fan via a comment at Podium Cafe.

First this:

Then this:

Not too sure if any of it's earth-shattering, but I find it interesting that the line between riders and fans grows increasingly thin thanks to sites like Twitter.

3. And speaking of George, check this out from his first year at Roubaix. Tears for Gears is a terrific site for fans of the 1990’s--it’s helping me getting over throwing away my old copies of Winning Magazine.

4. In case you missed it, here's this again:

Free online screen recorder

5. The Tour of the Basque Country is underway, and all signs point to the controversial Alejandro Valverde having a terrific Ardennes campaign. Oscar Freire and Garmin’s young squad seem poised for some nice results as well. Freire currently leads the GC, but tomorrow’s “Queen” stage looks certain to shake things up. Stay-tuned.

6. Speaking of Pais Vasco, Francesco Gavazzi won today’s stage for Lampre, a squad in an uncomfortable spot thanks to some doping products found in the home of Lorenzo Bernucci. According to Bernucci, the products belong to his wife and brother. Sure they do, Lorenzo.

Some are already talking about Lampre being booted from the Tour—could Vacansoleil finally get its chance?

7. And last, but not least, I did a fantastic ride this past weekend called the Hell of Hunterdon. If you happen to live near Philadelphia, you need to participate in next year’s edition (or for that matter, in this year’s edition of its sister-event, the Fool’s Classic). Just over 76 miles in length, the ride includes about 12 miles (18 sections) of some of New Jersey’s finest unpaved and gravel roads—like L’Eroica, but without the wine, costumes, and vintage bikes. If you plan on doing Battenkill next year, you’re a fool if you don’t ride the HoH as training.

The ride’s organization was smooth and efficient, and free beer and pizza were offered to all finishers. While I was a guest of the organizer, the registration fee was nominal for such a wonderful day—especially for those who pre-registered. Better still, of the 100 or so people registered in advance, 28 of them won raffle prizes from companies including Lazer, Belgum Budder, and Classic Cycling Essentials. Be sure to bookmark the event’s website, and add it to your calendar for next spring.

8. And by the way, I'm looking for a pair of 700x23 Vittoria Open Tubular CX's with black rubber and tan/skin sidewalls. 

I've also been inspired by a recent Twitter conversation to track down some Briko Stingers or Zens. 

Drop me a line at paveblog@gmail.com if you think you can help me out.

Have a great Wednesday--our Paris-Roubaix coverage begins tomorrow! 

Monday Musette - Milan-San Remo Wrap-up

Saturday’s Milan-San Remo went-off without a hitch--despite the weather’s best attempts to ruin the day. After 298 kilometers of racing in cold, rainy conditions, it was a Spaniard who ended-up with the victory. Funny how two men from warmer, sunnier climates have taken wins in two of the season’s grimiest races thus far. Here’s what we learned:

1. I remember watching the 1999 World Championship Road Race in Verona, Italy with friends on a television in my apartment in Leuven, Belgium. When a young, unknown Spaniard surprised a select group of favorites including Francesco Casagrande, Frank Vandenbroucke, and Jan Ullrich, we all felt a bit ripped-off. But after 2 more World Titles, 7 Vuelta stage wins, 4 Tour stage wins, 1 Ghent-Wevelgem, and now 3 Milan-San Remo’s I think it’s time for me to officially apologize to Oscar Freire for years of underrating him. With the changes to this year’s Belgian calendar, Freire has a terrific opportunity to take yet another win in Sunday’s Ghent-Wevelgem—especially since many of his main rivals might choose to take Saturday’s E3 Prijs more seriously. Congratulations, Oscar. I won’t overlook you again—at least for one more week.

2. Tom Boonen was satisfied with a respectable 2nd place in San Remo—even though Freire blew his doors off in the sprint. What impressed me most was Boonen’s positioning on the Cipressa and Poggio—he rode attentively and comfortably at the front of the peloton, consistently placed within the first 10 or so riders. Clearly his form for Flanders and Roubaix has arrived. Unfortunately, I wonder if he might find himself too heavily marked in Flanders to take a third win. On the other hand, it’s essentially every man for himself on the pavé of Paris-Roubaix—at this point only Pozzato, Hushovd, and Cancellara look to have the condition to ride with him there. Then again, those races are still 2 and 3 weeks away—maybe it’s too soon to speculate?

3. As for Pippo Pozzato, he seemed to ride as if he had read the “This will come down to a sprint” writing on the wall. Knowing he had relatively little chances against sprinters such as Freire, Boonen, Bennati, and Hushovd, he seemed content to treat the race’s finale as an opportunity to test his legs on the attack. To be honest, when he rolled-off the front in pursuit of Vincenzo Nibali with 2km to go, I thought he would take his second victory—too bad the rest had other things in mind. At Flanders though, they might find catching up to Pozzato an entirely different enterprise.

4. And speaking of Hushovd, he made the leading group, ultimately sprinting to a slid 6th-place finish. With Flanders and Roubaix still weeks away, Thor looks to have starting his crescendo at just the right time. Unfortunately, it was also announced that he won’t have the support of Heinrich Haussler; his knee injury seems to be worse than expected, keeping out of races until later this spring.

5. Philippe Gilbert’s attack on the Poggio and subsequent 9th place finish confirmed his candidacy for a win in Flanders—Roubaix’s not very suited to his strengths. While his attack had little effect on the race itself, it served noticed to everyone—including the Belgian press—that he’s not to be overlooked.

6. And finally, we must mention Fabian Cancellara, another rider who led a quiet build-up to Saturday’s race. Spartacus rode comfortably with the lead group, finishing the day in 17th place. Like Hushovd, he appears on-track for a solid cobbled campaign.

7. Moving away from the pre-race favorites, Quick Step’s Sylvain Chavanel looks to be peaking quite nicely. If Boonen finds himself too heavily marked, Chavanel could play Devolder’s role in Flanders, possibly getting the win we all know he deserves. Regardless, his condition means teams will have two Quick Step riders with which to contend; an advantage few teams are able to match.

8. BMC’s Marcus Burghardt was his team’s only rider to finish with the leaders. As he seems to be peaking a bit sooner than his teammates Ballan and Hincapie (both of whom came in with the second group, 1:40 behind), look for him to impress this Sunday in Ghent-Wevelgem, a race he won in 2007. The German has also recorded top-5 finishes in both Dwars door Vlaanderen and the E3 Prijs in the past—it’s a shame they weren’t invited to Dwars, but it still could be a good weekend for the squad.

9. As we expected, Colnago’s Sacha Modolo finishing 4th on Saturday, continuing his string of top results from Tirreno-Adriatico. I know it’s a bit early to talk transfers, but look for him to be snapped-up by a team with an aging sprinter before next season—Lampre and Katusha might be possibilities—especially if he manages to grab a stage win or two in this year’s Giro.

10. Liquigas rode a fantastic race for Daniele Bennati with Vincenzo Nibali and Roman Kreuziger playing roles as prominent as we expected. Unfortunately, Bennati could manage no better than 5th. Clearly he’s a second-tier field sprinter, able to win only when better, faster competition is absent. Stick to Tirreno, DePanne, and the Vuelta, my friend. And by the way, give Liquigas the first “What Were They Thinking?” Award of 2010 for leaving Peter Sagan—a double stage-winner in Paris-Nice—at home.

11. Unfortunately, Tyler Farrar’s performance Saturday might put him in the same category as Bennati—although Bennati made it to the finish with the lead group. If Farrar’s team can’t position him well in a finale as straightforward as Milan-San Remo’s then what will they do in the cobbled classics, races with much more difficult profiles?

Two final thoughts from Saturday:

12. What the heck was Stefano Garzelli doing on the Poggio? Several sources claimed he attacked, but in my opinion he simply set a hard pace—but for whom?

13. Did you notice the prevalence of super-deep carbon fiber rear wheels? If this is indeed a new trend, I don’t get it. But I’m like that.

Time permitting, I’ve got a big week planned for Pavé. Here’s the schedule for the next several days:

Tuesday: Dwars Door Vlaanderen Preview
Wednesday: 5 Questions for the Cobbled Classics
Thursday: Dwars Door Vlaanderen Wrap-up/What We Learned
Friday: Weekend Preview(s) E3 and Criterium International
Saturday: Ghent-Wevelgem Preview

It’s an ambitious program, but I think I’m up for it—at least I hope so.

Thanks for reading! Share your comments below

Milan-San Remo Preview

It’s a bit of shame that when we talk about the favorites for Milan-San Remo we look at sprinters.  Maybe it’s just the way the sport’s evolved over time, but it seems that the likelihood of a true breakaway succeeding gets slimmer and slimmer every year.  And worse, while it used to be that only those sprinters able to make it over the Cipressa and Poggio would have a chance for the victory, now just about everyone has the ability to make it to the final straightaway down the Via Roma with a chance for the win.  Then again, any race approaching 300 kilometers in length has to be taken seriously—no matter how the victor gets it done.

Regardless, La Primavera’s a beautiful race that any rider would be pleased to win. This year it once again looks as if sprinters will rule the day with Quick Step, Katusha, Garmin, Liquigas, and Sky all likely to work to bring a relatively intact group to the line.  Interestingly, many of these teams also possess some of the more dangerous threats to win from a breakaway—I wonder what the result will be should a select group of lieutenants escape before the line.  Would Quick Step chase down a group containing Chavanel?  Would Rabobank bring back a break containing Boom or Nuyens?  What will Katusha, Sky, and Liquigas do if Kolobnev, Flecha, and Kreuziger find themselves with a sizable gap at the top of the Poggio?  And let’s not forget the Acqua Sapone’s and Androni Giocatoli’s of the world—they have no other choice than to attack, attack, and attack some more.  These teams will make things interesting should the bigger squads prove resistant to animating the race.

Truly, the joy in Milan-San Remo comes from watching these scenarios unfold.  So without further ado, let’s take a look at the favorites for Saturday’s Milan-San Remo, the first true classic of the season:

Fotoreporter Sirotti

 

5-Stone Favorites

Tom Boonen - Quick Step only has 4 wins so far this season and they’re nothing to write home about.  But that could change Saturday, as Tom Boonen heads into Milan-San Remo as the odds-on favorite to take the win. Boonen hasn’t been shy about his desire to win Milan-San Remo, and judging from the form he’s displayed over the past few weeks he’s clearly ready to do it.  He’s powerful to make it over the Cipressa and the Poggio with the lead group.  With a unified team dedicated to getting him to the line first, Boonen just might add a Milan-San Remo to his 2 Tours of Flanders and 3 Paris-Roubaix victories—quite an impressive classics resume!

Fotoreporter Sirotti

Filippo Pozzato – Like Quick Step, Katusha’s won only a few races so far this year, but don’t let that fool you—they have one of the most talented squads in the professional peloton. Filippo Pozzato already has one Milan-San Remo win under his belt—he’s hoping to add another.  But while the wins haven’t come for Pippo yet this year, he’s made his presence known at the front of races including the Omloop Het Nieuwsblad, L’Eroica, and several stages in Tirreno-Adriatico.  Milan-San Remo is the first target in what Pozzato hopes will be his finest spring yet—one that he hopes will include victories in the Tour of Flanders and Paris-Roubaix as well.  Look for this to be the beginning of a terrific duel between Pozzato and his Belgian nemesis, one that could last the next 3 weeks.

Fotoreporter Sirotti

Edvald Boasson Hagen - Of all the teams making splashes this past off-season, Team Sky appears to be getting the quickest returns on its investment. Hagen’s already won several races this year, including the final stage of Tirreno-Adriatico earlier this week, and his powerful sprint makes him a top favorite for Milan-San Remo. Hagen’s also an attacker though—if he looks around after the Poggio and doesn’t like what he sees, don’t be surprised to see him attack before the line in a fashion similar to Tchmil and Cancellara when they won on the Via Roma.

4-Stone Favorites

Tyler Farrar - Garmin comes to Milan-San Remo hoping Tyler Farrar can get the team its first win in a major spring classic.  Farrar will need to make it over the Cipressa and the Poggio in the lead group while hoping some of the competition—like Hushovd and Tom Boonen—does not to have a chance for the victory.  And while he might not have to worry about Hushovd, Boonen appears to be at the peak of his fitness.  Still, Farrar’s beaten Boonen before; if things go right for him and his team, Garmin might just find itself on the top step of the podium.

Oscar Freire – Freire’s had a quiet build-up to this year’s Milan-San Remo, but he’s a rider whose experience cannot be ignored.  With a talented team supporting him, Freire could easily take his third Milan-San Remo title.  Lars Boom and Nick Nuyens are two excellent wild cards; both would make excellent decoys in the race’s later phases.  Look for one of them, likely Boom, to attack on the Cipressa, ultimately forcing other teams to chase.  Freire’s greatest strength is his ability to handle the hills; he’s usually the last of the sprinters to be dropped on climbs like the Cipressa and Poggio.  He’s also extremely cunning; of all the riders to have received little press this week, he’s the one to take most seriously.

Philippe Gilbert – Omega Pharma - Lotto’s Gilbert won two classics in a week last autumn when he rode to dominating victories in Paris-Tours (a race for the sprinters) and the Tour of Lombardy (a race catered to climbers).  Like many riders, Gilbert’s had a quiet season thus far, slowly riding himself into form in Qatar, Oman, and Paris-Nice.  A true all-rounder, Gilbert’s a legitimate contender in just about every major classic save Paris-Roubaix.  His team’s full of strong men capable of keeping Gilbert fresh for the two climbs late in the race.  If he makes it over the Poggio in a group with a gap to the pure sprinters, he could add a third classic to his resumé.  He’s also candidate for a last-second dash for the line before the sprint has started.

Daniele Bennati - Tom Boonen’s pick for victory, Daniele Bennati comes to the race in peak form.  He won Stage 3 of Tirreno, beating Petacchi, Farrar, and Flecha in the process.  Like Freire, Bennati has a talented team of men surrounding him, two of them—Vincenzo Nibali and Roman Kreuziger—are perfect candidates for peloton-weakening attacks on the Cipressa and Poggio.  Were I driving the car, Nibali would be given the task of attacking and/or covering on the Cipressa while Kreuziger would give it his all on the Poggio.  The rest would ride support for Bennati, keeping him out of trouble and making sure he’s well-placed for an ensuing sprint.  If Bennati hits the Via Roma in good position, he could bring home the win for the tifosi.

Thor Hushovd - The Mighty Thor finished 3rd here last year—he essentially won the “field” sprint behind Haussler and Cavendish—but this year his fitness has been a bit of a mystery.  He was all but absent at the Omloop Het Nieuwsblad, but then practically rode himself into the ground at Kuurne.  In Tirreno he failed to wow us, but that might just be a smokescreen.  Without the injured Heinrich Haussler, Hushovd loses a valuable ally—other teams will be able to key on him exclusively should he find himself isolated.  Still, Thor’s not someone to ignore, especially in a race often ending in a bunch sprint.

3-Stone Favorites

Marcus Burghardt – At this point in the season, Burghardt seems to be BMC’s best shot for victory tomorrow.  He rode a solid Tirreno-Adriatico, even making an appearance in the break with Tom Boonen during Stage 6.  With Hincapie, Kroon, and Ballan riding support, he could be granted a relatively stress-free ride to the finish where he could surprise everyone in a sprint.

Alessandro Petacchi – Petacchi’s gracefully entering into the twilight of his career having made the move from LPR to Lampre.  With Danilo Hondo providing lead-outs, he seems to have regained some of the speed that saw him win this race in 2005.  That said, despite several early-season successes, I think Petacchi’s a step below riders like Boonen, Hagen, and even Oscar Freire—especially after his crash before Tirreno.  A top-5 finish might be a more reasonable expectation for this aging star.

2-Star Favorites

Bernhard Eisel – I might regret it by tomorrow afternoon, but I don’t consider Mark Cavendish one of the favorites for tomorrow’s race.  He’s had an inconsistent season thus far, with no wins having been added to his name.  HTC’s best chance for a win might just be one of Cavendish’s lead-out men, Bernhard Eisel.  Eisel’s career lacks a big win, but don’t let that fool you; he’s a talented sprinter who often is often asked to ride for the bigger names within his team.  Can he win?  That might be a bit of a stretch, but a good result is certainly well within his reach.  Watch for his teammate Matthew Goss as well, the young Australian is on the way up and could mix it up at the finish as well.

Matti Breschel – Saxo Bank’s had a quiet season thus far, and while many think Cancellara’s their top man for MSR, I think he’s a better bet for the cobbled classics in a few weeks time.  Saxo’s better challenge might come from Matti Breschel, someone who has proven abilities in a sprint.  Like Petacchi and Eisel, Breschel’s a bit of a long shot, but surprises have happened here before.

Maxim Iglinski & Enrico Gasparotto - Don’t be fooled into thinking Astana’s a one-trick pony.  They have men not named “Alberto” who have scored wins so far this season and the team has ridden aggressively in every race it has entered.  Two riders deserve mention as outside favorites for Milan-San Remo: Maxim Iglinsky and Enrico Gasparotto.  Iglinsky won this year’s L’Eroica, Italy’s version of Paris-Roubaix, and Gasparotto won a stage in Tirreno-Adriatico.  A win in San Remo would certainly be a surprise—but then again, stranger things have happened.

Mattia Gavazzi & Sacha Modolo – Colnago’s talented pair of sprinters scored some top finishes in Tirreno, look for one of them in the top-10 on Saturday, particularly if other riders sit-up once they feel they’re out of contention.  These aren’t necessarily riders worth placing bets on, but when you’re on the Sunday group ride, you can say you weren’t surprised to see them in the front.

Stefano Garzelli & Michele Scarponi – It’s been a while since we saw an attack from the Poggio survive to the finish, but if it were to happen this year, I expect one or both of the top-2 men from Tirreno to be involved.  Their teams don’t possess the sprint strength of other contenders and they’ll have free rein to try their hand in a breakaway.  In Italy’s most important one-day race, look for both to attack in front of their home audience.

Final Prediction?

Certain races start to follow scripts over time, and Milan-San Remo’s proven no different over the past decade.  This year I think we’ll see a race similar to 2009, but with different players in the leading roles.  I think Boasson Hagen will play Heinrich Haussler, perhaps trying a last-second move rather than take his chance against a large group of field sprinters.  Like Haussler last year, he’ll be caught just before the line—by Tom Boonen.  Tyler Farrar will take advantage of the chaos to take third, taking Hushovd’s place from last year.

As for Pippo Pozzato, I think he’ll descend the Poggio with the leaders, but might not feel comfortable taking chances to take the victory.  They’ll be too many riders, and he’ll perhaps be isolated or poorly positioned coming off the Poggio.  In the end he’ll play it safe, lest he risk his chances in the cobbled classics still to come.

So that’s my Top-3: Boonen gets the win over Hagen and Farrar.

What about you?  Who are your picks for tomorrow?  Share them below.

Monday Musette - Omloop Het Nieuwsblad Edition

Photo by Van Wichelen.

In hindsight, going to NAHBS on the weekend of Het Nieuwsblad and Kuurne-Brussels-Kuurne might have been a bad idea as it prevented me from providing you the most up-to-date commentary on the weekend’s action. That said, last week was probably to most popular and well-read week in Pavé’s 1-year history—for that, I thank you.

So even though many others have beaten me to the punch in providing coverage and analysis on the weekend’s events, I’ll still share what I noticed—after all, this is Pavé, right?

1. Nick Nuyens has to be wishing he either: a) rode for Quick Step; or b) was named Tom Boonen, as it might have earned him some neutral support inside the last 30 km of the race. While it can be understood why he had no team car—the gaps were too small between groups and the roads were too narrow—it’s hard to imagine why it took so long for even a motorcycle to arrive with a fresh wheel. Maybe they were taking a break for a pintje before the finish? Maybe they were all waiting with Boonen in case he triple-flatted? Regardless, it cost Nuyens a chance for the victory, and is certainly embarrassing for the organizers. No matter what happens, there has to be at least one moto at the front at all times.

Tire choice was key on a day when punctures ruled. Photo by Van Wichelen.

2. That said, it’s not Roubaix, but the section where Rabobank punctured is one where I might have thought—if I were Rabo’s DS—of planting a few wheels with team staff on foot just in case someone flatted at a time when support couldn’t be had from a car or moto—which is exactly what happened. Teams do it at strategic points in Flanders and Roubaix, why not here? It was clearly a section where the race was going to blow apart; I would have rolled the dice and had a wheel or two waiting after the Molenberg, the Taaienberg, and the cobbled Paddestraat and Lippenhovestraat.

While not the result he wanted, Boonen can feel good about his form. Photo by Van Wichelen.

3. And speaking of the Taaienberg, Tom Boonen’s attack there was breathtaking. I’m not sure how deep he went, but he rode away from everyone at a rate that has to strike at least a little bit of fear into the minds of his competitors. No one was able to follow his wheel, forcing Boonen to soft pedal while waiting for someone—anyone—to join him. One can only wonder what the outcome of the race would have been had he not flatted several kilometers later.

Chavanel and Quick Step are feeling the heat following a poor weekend. Photo by Van Wichelen.

4. Boonen’s Quick Step had a rough weekend, but never fear, its happened to them before. No doubt the Belgian press will criticize and speculate in the weeks to come, but this is clearly a team with its sights squarely set on the monuments still to come. Ask any Belgian if he would take the Omloop over Flanders or Roubaix and his answer would be an astonished, “Nee.”

5. As for Quick Step’s main rival, Omega Pharma-Lotto, the day went a bit better albeit with similar results. I’m not sure why, but most media outlets claim that Flecha was the first to initiate the attacks inside the final 20km—that wasn’t the case. Gilbert attacked first; Flecha countered and then accelerated once he realized Gilbert was riding at his limit, ultimately pulling away for the win. The wild card here was Jurgen Roelandts, who rode a fantastic race in service of Gilbert. His one mistake was perhaps hesitating a bit too long when Gilbert attacked. It was the safest decision, as he would not have wanted to make a move that might have harmed Gilbert’s chances for the win; but Guesdon and Curvers were hanging-on by a thread—Roelandts could have left them easily to join his teammate in the winning move. He tried to bridge once he realized the frailty of his companions, but it was too late to bridge before Flecha counter-attacked. I’m left wondering what would have happened had Roelandts immediately ridden-away with the other two—would Flecha have dropped him as well?

Roelandts can only ponder what might have been. Photo by Van Wichelen.

Regardless, at 24 Roelandts seems to have all the makings of a solid classics rider. He if can continue to progress over the next few weeks, he’ll prove a valuable asset to Gilbert and Hoste later in the spring, perhaps making the loss of Johan Vansummeren a bit less detrimental to Lotto’s chances for a win in Flanders or Roubaix.

6. As for Flecha, give him and Team Sky credit for a well-deserved victory. Sky rode a smart race, almost finishing 1-2 had Boassen Hagen not started his sprint a bit too soon. Flecha’s win was the first for a Spaniard and only the 10th time a non-Belgian has won the Omloop.

Another 2nd-place finish for Haussler. Photo by Van Wichelen.

7. And 2nd on the day? Yup, Heinrich Haussler. His knee clearly not bothering him, Haussler rode an aggressive race, ultimately missing the only move that mattered. His quest for a monument win will be one of the main stories throughout the next six weeks.

So close! Photo by Van Wichelen.

8. 3rd place on the day went to Garmin’s Tyler Farrar. Kudos to Farrar for hanging-in all day to take 2nd in the field sprint—another 10 meters and he might have nipped Haussler. If Farrar continues finds his top-end speed in Tirreno, he’ll have to be considered one of the favorites in Milan San Remo a little more than 10 days from now. Here’s hoping the rest of his team’s up to the challenge as well.

Devolder wasn't smiling after the race. Photo by Van Wichelen.

9. Finally, several top favorites were clearly content to treat patience as a virtue by taking a more reserved approach to the races this weekend. Several of the men we thought would play leading roles were more content with cameos including Pippo Pozzato, Stijn Devolder, and just about everyone on BMC—a team whose performance has me more than a little worried.

This was the last we saw of BMC. Photo by Van Wichelen.

All in all, it was an exciting weekend of racing that typified all that we love about springtime in Belgium. From here the action moves to France and Italy with Paris-Nice and Tirreno-Adriatico before kicking of the monuments with Milan-San Remo.

Share your comments with the rest of below—what stood-out to you from the first Belgian weekend of the year?

Thanks again and enjoy your week!

Monday Musette - Interbike, Fall Monuments, Posting, and Good Design

We're starting to see more and more coverage from Interbike:

IF's Grasstrack bike is a thing of beauty--fixed, extra clearance, and steel. I want one.

The Boulder Report published a report on the training-with-power trend--some great reading. Remember when HRM's were all the rage? How time flies!

Padraig posted an insightful piece on Interbike at Red Kite Prayer. It's beginning sound like Interbike just isn't what it used to be. Does the model need to change? I remember the East Coast version in Philadelphia; it's hard to believe that this year's Vegas event was no better than the last stop in Philly. But, as the market changes, so must the industry; it will be interesting to see how Interbike evolves over the next few years.

In racing news:

Tyler Farrar took the overall and several other classifications in the Circuit Franco-Belge. Can the young American take Paris-Tours? He has to be considered one of--if not the--top-favorite.

Pippo Pozatto took the Memorial Cimurri Saturday. Look for him to be a major protagonist in Paris-Tours as well.

This week sees more build-up for the fall monuments with Paris-Bourges and the Coppa Sabatini on Thursday. It will be interesting to see who shows the cards for Sunday. And when will we see Mr. Evans and his new jersey?

Niels Albert won the first cyclocross World Cup race in Treviso, but the bigger story was Sven Nijs abandoning mid-race. Are we witnessing the beginning of the end of an era?

Other food for thought:

Sprinting for Signs posted a great video from the 1981 Paris-Roubaix a while ago that I think is worth revisiting. Just count the number of wins in that lead group! Is it spring yet?

And speaking of posting, Frank Vandenbroucke announced he will be posting his blood values online. Thank goodness! I was wondering how we were to explain his impressive string of results as of late! This might be the first case of a rider posting blood values just to prove how bad he is. I'm sure scores of Danish scientists are lining-up to get a look!

And finally, if you haven't done so yet, head over to cassette. and Gage and Desoto for some really nice off-the-bike wear. They've sent me some treats which I'll be sharing with you soon. All I'll tell you for now is that they involve waffles and the Cannibal--so they're pretty much awesome.

Enjoy your week! And feel free to share your comments below.

Vuelta d'Espana Midpoint Report

Well, the Vuelta has about reached it’s midpoint, providing us with a good chance to look back over our pre-race predictions. If you recall, we divided this year’s participants into 4 groups according to what their attitudes and goals might be heading into this year’s final Grand Tour. We labeled them Redeemers, Builders, Asserters, and Seekers depending upon whether they are: a)redeeming themselves for an unfulfilling season; b) building form for later in the fall; c) asserting themselves as a legitimate contender in their given area; or d) seeking a new or better contract for next year.

As per usual, we’ve hit the target on several occasions (with others still to be determined), while missing horribly on others. Keeping in mind there’s still 10 days left to race, let’s see how we're doing, beginning with The Redeemers.

We presented Cadel Evans and Alejandro Valverde as both seeking some redemption at this year’s Vuelta. So far, so good as they sit in 2nd and 1st place respectively on GC with only 7 seconds separating them. With several exciting days remaining, the pending dual between these two talents might be one of the season’s finest.

Kim Kirchen came to the Vuelta for redemption as well—too bad he’s already dropped-out due to what have been described as “intestinal problems”. Clearly, this has not been the season Kirchen was banking upon. Maybe the environment at Katusha will give him a fresh start?

While the Redeemers came to the race seeking immediate redemption, several of the Builders hope to find the form they’ll need to get it a bit later on. Case in point: Tom Boonen’s been close to a stage win on several occasions, but he still seems to lack the last-second burst he needs to win. Time will tell if Tommeke’s season will end on a high note, but one can only hope the kilometers he’s logging now will reap rewards in October.

On the other hand, Damiano Cunego, another of our “Builders”, seems to be doing quite nicely. He won the Stage 9 summit finish and currently sits in 7th place overall. If he keeps it up, he’ll be the overwhelming favorite at Worlds and Lombardy--if he doesn't go too deep in Spain. His compatriot Alessandro Ballan has had a quiet Vuelta so far, one can only guess how he’ll be later in the season. Maybe he works for Cunego at Worlds?

And finally, Fabian Cancellara stormed to wins in both Vuelta ITT’s and is the clear favorite to win the World Title on his home turf.

As for the Asserters, Andre Greipel has clearly cemented himself among the world’s finest field sprinters by winning 2 stages and wearing the Gold Jersey for a few days. Furthermore, he’s staying with Columbia-HTC for 2010, thus ensuring that perhaps the strongest challenger to Mark Cavendish’s sprint throne stays home.

The first draft of today’s post mentioned Tyler Farrar as someone who fell short of our forecast. However, the young American finally broke through today, winning Stage 12. It caps a fantastic year for the Garmin rider, one which saw him progress steadily through the ranks of the world’s best field sprinters. Another win or two certainly wouldn’t be a surprise, firmly planting Tyler—along with Greipel—as one of the best in the world.

Samuel Sanchez was hoping to assert himself as perhaps Spain’s second-best Grand Tour rider. He currently sits in 6th place overall, about 1 minute down on the leaders. That’s a bit of a deficit, but it's one Sanchez is clearly capable of overcoming given the right circumstances. The Vuelta’s been won and lost in the final week before; Sanchez could still pull it off.

On the other hand, Andy Schleck’s Vuelta ended on Sunday when he abandoned about 90km into Stage 8 with stomach cramps. I expected more from both him and his brother (who abandoned today to have season-ending knee surgery). That said, Andy won Liege-Bastogne-Liege and finished 2nd in the Tour. A rest is clearly in order following what has been a long, but successful season.

An astute reader asked why I forgot to mention Robert Gesink among the Asserters. Clearly he was right, as young Robert’s currently sitting in 3rd place on GC. With several mountain stages still to come, Gesink could give the Dutch a well-deserved Grand Tour victory.

And finally we have the Seekers, and what a good group they’ve proved to be.

Ivan Basso and Tom Danielson have consistently ridden with the leaders, currently occupying 5th and 4th place on GC. Basso’s been reported to remain with Liquigas next season, while Danielson’s name has been absent from most transfer talk. That said, a solid Vuelta for both might just lead to some greener pastures for these two talented men.

Simon Gerrans has already claimed what he sought, winning Stage 10 into Murcia. He's now won stages in all 3 Grand Tours and will surely command a hefty salary for next season. My money’s on SKY getting his name on the dotted line.

And finally, there’s Chris Horner, a man we mentioned as possibly vying for the win. Unfortunately, Horner’s run of bad luck has continued, with a first week crash taking him from the race before it really even began. It’s clearly been a tough season for Chris.

So let’s see: that’s 7 stages and 6 of the Top-10 on GC for men we mentioned before the race. Not too shabby! Although the others might be sending us some hate mail for jinxing their chances.

What about you? What are your thoughts on the first half of the race? Share your comments below.

Vuelta d'Espana Preview

It’s back to school time, so that means it’s time for the annual 3-week party known as the Vuelta d'Espana. Seriously, I remember hearing of fights among team personnel over who would get to work the race—it’s that much fun.

For the riders though, it’s a bit of a different story, especially for those coming to the race with ambitions of one sort of another. Looking over the latest start list in fact, it’s pretty easy to sort the riders into categories based upon their expectations and hopes for this year's race. Let's take a stab at it.

Redeemers
The Redeemers come to the race hoping to salvage their seasons. Maybe they were injured and missed a big race or two, maybe they were suspended and are trying to return to their former glory days, or maybe they just spent the season searching for form that never came. Regardless, these men come to this year’s Vuelta hoping to erase the past with a win in the year’s final Grand Tour.

1. Cadel Evans tops the list of Redeemers this year. An utter disappointment at the Tour de France (a race he was expected by many to win), Cadel comes to the start in Rotterdam looking to win his first Grand Tour. Silence-Lotto has given him a solid team capable of getting him where he needs to be for the victory, but it will be all up to Cadel to keep his head in the race against some fierce competition. When he’s on his game, he’s a force to be reckoned with; but when he’s not he races with the temperament of a pubescent teenager. He better take advantage now, in what could be his last real shot for Grand Tour glory.

2. Alejandro Valverde makes his 2009 Grand Tour debut at a race he would most certainly love to win for his home fans. He wasn’t allowed to start the Tour this year due to his Italian racing ban, and his team appears to be eager to sign one of his fiercest rivals, fellow Spaniard Alberto Contador. A win by Valverde might convince his management that Albie’s not worth the extra millions, a poor outing might just put the nail in his Valverde's Grand Tour coffin. For my money, I’m hoping Valverde makes this his last attempt at Grand Tour greatness; he’s much more suited to the Ardennes Classics and shorter stages races. Can you imagine how he would do were he to focus exclusively on those?

3. Remember last year when Kim Kirchen won Flèche-Wallone and then spent a week or two making everyone think he could win the Tour? Seems long ago, doesn’t it? Yes, he was injured for the better part of the season, but he’s better now and has enough racing in his legs to warrant consideration here. His situation isn’t nearly as critical as Evans’ or Valverde’s, but he certainly could use a good result to remind everyone of just how talented he is—or was.

4. And of course, one cannot forget Alexandre Vinokourov, whose need for redemption needs no explanation.

Other candidates: Philipe Gilbert, FDJ, Euskaltel-Euskadi

Builders
The Builders come to the Vuelta hoping to build form for the season’s final month, namely the World Championships, Paris-Tours, and the Tour of Lombardy. Most of these riders can’t logically claim to have ambitions for the GC; they’ll be looking for stage wins and opportunities to test their legs against their peers. In many cases, these men are also seeking redemption, using the Vuelta to help them find it in the season’s waning moments. A bit risky perhaps, but a stage win or two along the way never hurts, no?

1. Tom Boonen might also be considered a Redeemer in the sense that his Tour de France was an entirely lackluster affair. He started the season well with his usually impressive Classics campaign. Then the wheels fell-off when Tommeke tested positive—again—for cocaine—again. His team fought for and won the right to bring Tom to the Tour where he spent more time flatting and falling than sprinting and winning. He then announced he would ride the Vuelta in the hopes of reminding everyone that he’s one of the top sprinters in the world--and to gain some form for World’s. If can build the fitness he needs for a big win later, while winning several stages, he might just kill two birds with one stone. If he can’t, his fans will spend the off-season wondering what could have been instead of celebrating what was.

2. Like Boonen, Damiano Cunego comes to Spain hoping to build the form he needs to make everyone forget what’s been a pretty disappointing season so far. He failed to score a Spring Classic win and was nowhere close to being a factor in his beloved Giro. Perhaps more so than Boonen, the Worlds parcours actually suits Cunego’s strengths though, and now without Danilo “It’s A Conspiracy” Di Luca in the picture, he might have a team entirely dedicated to helping him get it. Cunego needs to ride smart, treating the Vuelta strictly as training, lest he risk doing too much too soon. Sure, he can go for a stage win now and again, but he cannot do so if it means burning too many of the matches he’ll need for success at Mendrisio and Lombardy.

3. Alessandro Ballan would like to defend his World Title; unfortunately, he might find the course and the competition a bit too much for his talents. That said, there’s always Paris-Tours, a race much more suited to his skills. The Vuelta will help him get where he needs to be. Fabian Cancellara would also like another World Title in the ITT. He’s racing for his home fans at Mendrisio, and the Vuelta will provide just the training he needs to ensure they don’t go home disappointed.

Others: Bjorne Leukemans, Lars Boom, Oscar Freire, and Carlos Barredo

Asserters
The Asserters come the Vuelta hoping to prove that they warrant the hype they've been given at point or another. They could be a young sprinter hoping to show everyone they deserve to be considered one of the World’s fastest, or an all-round rider looking to make the jump from weeklong race contender to Grand Tour favorite. To them, the Vuelta is a chance to assert themselves as deserving a place at the top of the sport.

1. Andre Griepel was pretty disappointed to have been left-off his team’s roster for the Tour. He comes to the Vuelta hoping to re-assert himself as one of the world’s fastest sprinters. In doing so, he might simultaneously build some form for a race like Paris-Tours and earn himself a fat new contract for 2010—either with Columbia or someone else.

2. Along with Edvald Boassen Hagen, Tyler Farrar was perhaps August’s most successful rider. He comes to the Vuelta looking for a Grand Tour breakthrough. He’s already beaten just about everyone he’ll be competing against in Spain, now he just needs everything to fall into place. His confidence is brimming, his team is dedicated to helping him win, and all that’s left is for him to make it happen. I think he will—several times.

3. Samuel Sanchez comes to the race wearing race number 1. His only task is to end the 3-week race at the same place on GC. He has a team that will certainly be motivated to help him win their home tour and draw attention from the scandal surrounding them after July’s Tour. Frankly though, I don’t see Sanchez as a rider capable of winning a Grand Tour. Like Valverde, he might be suited to hillier classics and weeklong stages races of the Paris-Nice/Pais Vasco sort. Should he prove me wrong though, he will have convincingly asserted himself as one of the world’s finest.

4. And finally, there’s Andy Schleck. Does Andy need to assert himself as one of the world’s best Grand Tour riders? Absolutely not. That said, he’s finished on the podium in both the Giro and the Tour now, and a win at the Vuelta would assert his status as perhaps the greatest threat to Alberto Contador in the years to come. If I were Andy, I would love to go into the off-season with a Grand Tour win under my belt, thus fueling the fire for an impending re-match with Contador in next year’s Tour.

Other Candidates: Roman Kreuziger, Rinaldo Nocentini, Ignatas Konovalovas, Allan Davis, and Fuji-Servetto

Seekers
To put it simply, the Seekers come to the race looking for one thing: a contract for next year. September marks the beginning of the official transfer period as well as the start of the stagiaire audition season. A good ride in Spain can make the difference between a good contract and a bad one, or in extreme cases, no contract at all.

1. Ivan Basso needs the Vuelta to remind everyone—and his potential suitors—that he still has what it takes to win a Grand Tour. His return at the Giro was positive, but it did little to strike fear into the hearts of his rivals. A win or solid placing in Spain might convince a team that Basso’s best days are not behind him. A bad race, and Team Radio Shack might be able to change a digit or two in their latest offer.

2. Simon Gerrans will certainly have offers for next season; the Vuelta will just give him a opportunity to make them as high as he wants them to be. A stage win in Spain and he’ll have bagged one in all 3 Grand Tours—in 2 seasons, no less. The race might also give him a chance to show what he can do on GC; his team contains no threat to his leadership should he choose to go that route.

3. As we mentioned earlier, Tom Danielson finally looks to be worthy of at least some of the hype surrounding him during his Pro Tour career. A good Vuelta will solidify his place on someone’s team next season—maybe even Garmin. A bad race, and he could be looking for work back home on a team hoping to make him their leader for Redlands. (Now I'm sounding like Bobby Julich.)

4. If I were to make a list of Indefensible Claims for this year’s Vuelta, I’d pick Chris Horner to win. Like Gerrans, he’ll have no problem finding a team next year—especially if he decides to follow Lance. But Chris is a wily veteran, and his inclusion on Astana’s Vuelta team shows me that he’s willing to go it alone to prove to anyone watching that he’s got talent. With Alain Gallopin (the man responsible for bringing Chris to FDJ way back when) driving the car, Chris could pull-off the result of his life, giving him the right to demand more dinero from Team Lance or elsewhere.

Other Seekers: Kurt-Asle Arvesen, Matti Breschel, Michael Albasini, Xacobeo Galicia, and Contempolis-AMPO

That said, here are my predictions for this year’s Vuelta Top-5:

1. Andy Schleck
2. Roman Kreuziger
3. Cadel Evans
4. Alejandro Valverde
5. Chris Horner

What about you? Who are your Redeemers, Builders, Asserters, and Seekers for this year’s race? Share your comments below.

Monday Musette - ENECO Final Days, Gerrans, and Blood Doping for Everyone

1. The ENECO Benenlux Tour wraps-up tomorrow with a 13.1km time trial around Amersfoort. After his performance yesterday, should we just go ahead and declare Edvald Boassen Hagen the winner now? The biggest threats to his GC hopes come from the men in places 3, 4, and 5 after Stage 5: Chavanel, Nibali, and Poosthuma. All three are talented against the clock, and if Edvald the Conqueror has a bad day (albeit unlikely), one of these men could take the win.

And don't forget Tyler Farrar at only 15 seconds back; he's no slouch in a TT either (he finished 2nd in the Prologue). Strange things have happened before in the final stage of the ENECO Tour. Maybe Boassen Hagen pulls a Menchov and crashes on a wet road? Or perhaps he flats at an inopportune time? You never know. Regardless, Farrar's done a heck of a job--look for him to earn his first win in a Grand Tour at this year's Vuelta.

2. In other Pro Tour news, Simon Gerrans won the GP Plouay yesterday, adding another impressive win to his palmares. The fact that this race has received Pro Tour status--in my opinion--says more about its location than its difficulty (no offense, Simon). Were it not in Brittany, it might just be another well-attended summer circuit race with a 1.1 UCI ranking (like the 8 to 10 of them in Italy right now). That said, Gerrans' win re-asserts the fact that he should have been on Cervelo's team for the Tour. It also adds fuel to the belief held by many that Gerrans will either be joining Lance at The Shack or his former DS Scott Sunderland at Team Sky in 2010.

3. Speaking of Lance, did you hear that he dropped-out of the Tour of Ireland during yesterday's last stage? Too bad for the fans who braved the terrible weather to get a glimpse of the legend in action.

4. And while we're on the subject of back pain, take a gander at this column from Thursday's New York Times. I'm not necessarily willing to tackle the doping problem here at Pavé--especially when there are many others more talented and able to do so. But the irony in this article is truly mind-boggling, especially from a newspaper so outspoken against doping and performance enhancement. I know, I know...there's a difference between a medical treatment overseen by a professional and bags of blood in the back of a soigneur's Opal. But for cryin' out loud!

5. Did you see that Alessandro Ballan testified that he was approached by an amatuer cyclist offering him CERA? Bravo.

6. I'll end with one final thought and a question on doping. This morning on ESPN Radio, the jocks were discussing Pete Rose and his admission of betting on baseball. As they see it, there's no crime against a sport worse than betting on its games, since it could lead to the games being fixed by the athletes playing in them, thus damaging the sport at its competitive core. As they see it, it's even worse than performance enhancing drugs--so much so that locker rooms are adorned with signs reminding players to not bet on their sports.

So I ask you, which is worse? Fixing a race, or doping to win it?

Share your comments below. And have a great Monday!

Should E-N-E-C-O Equal R-E-S-P-E-C-T?

Admit it, you've spent more time over the past week reading about Leadville than this week's ENECO Tour. It's okay, you're among friends.

I made the same mistake. In my Embrocation column this week, I intimated that the ENECO Tour (among several other August races) doesn’t hold the same amount of prestige (and therefore doesn't warrant much attention) as races in other months. But after following the coverage of the Benelux Tour’s first 3 days, I can’t help but wonder if we might all be wrong. Does the ENECO Tour deserve more respect than it’s getting?

First, take a look at the parcours. Were you surprised to learn the race is 8 days long? That’s as long as Paris-Nice and a day longer than Tirreno-Adriatico. A few stages top 200km and there are two days of individual time trials—albeit short ones. And don’t let those sprint finishes fool you, this race has some hills. Remember those climbs we spent most of April covering? Well, many of them return here: the bergs of Amstel, the muurs of Flanders, and the cols of the Ardennes. For example, the Muur de Geraardsbergen left it’s mark yesterday with about 76km to go, reducing the field with it’s steep cobbled pitch. The Ardennes are yet to come; look for the real GC battle to sort itself out there.

But what really impressed me was the event’s startlist (click "Deelnemers")—it’s quite stellar for an August week-long stage race. Quick Step brought Tom Boonen and Sylvain Chavanel (Chavanel won the race Prologue). Garmin--along with current race leader Tyler Farrar--brought Bradley Wiggins, fresh from his 4th-place in the Tour. And speaking of high finishers in the Tour, how about Vincenzo Nibali? He’s there too. Andreas Kloden took the line for Astana; he would have been a candidate for the win had he not crashed and injured his wrist yesterday. Columbia brought 4 men capable of winning the overall: Tony Martin, Maxime Monfort, Thomas Lövkvist, and Michael Rogers. Edvald Boassen Hagen is there too, looking to continue his good run of summer form. Silence-Lotto took the line with Greg Van Avermaet, Jurgen Van Den Broeck, and Johan Vansummeren—what, no Cadel? Rabobank brings Classics men Juan Antonio Flecha and Nick Nuyens. If this were the Start List for Paris-Nice or the Tour of California, would it be getting more press?

And speaking of respect, it’s also time to give some to the race’s current leader and double stage winner, Tyler Farrar. Young Farrar’s entered 4 races this week (not counting today’s stage), winning 3 of them and finishing 2nd in the fourth. It’s a testament to not only Farrar’s blossoming talent, but also to the confidence that comes from getting your first big win. Tyler’s been ready to boil over since this year’s Tour, when he finished 2nd almost as many time as Mark Cavendish finished 1st. Sunday’s win in the Vattenfall Cyclassics was just the result Tyler and his Garmin teammates needed to top-off their confidence, as their performances in ENECO have clearly illustrated.

So maybe we all need to spend a little less time thinking about transfers and a little more time focusing on the great racing going-on right under our noses.

What are your thoughts? Share them below.

Monday Musette - Farrar, Hampsten, and Mueslix

1. Congratulations to Tyler Farrar for breaking through with a big win in yesterday's Vattenfall Cyclassics. It's a result we've been expecting from Farrar, and it followed a solid effort from his Garmin team. With Tom Danielson on form as well, it could be an interesting fall for the boys in blue and orange argyle. And remember folks, I know it seems like Farrar's been around for years (well, he has), but the guy's still only 25. Big things beckon for the young American! I see a contract with a Belgian team in his future.

2. Lately there's been a lot of praise for the website Cycling Quotient, most recently in a recent Boulder Report post. A treasure trove of information for data-lovers, I can't believe I haven't stumbled upon it sooner. CQ's Head 2 Head feature is one of its most interesting, allowing you to select two riders and (duh) compare their head-to-head results. The site's also a terrific source for the most up-to-date transfer rumors and news. They're not all accurate--they're rumors after all--but it's a great way to get yourself caught-up on what's been floating around.

3. Not sure if you've ever taken a trip over to Hampsten Cycles, but if you haven't, you should. Andy and his brother Steve make some of the nicest looking and most thoughtfully designed bikes I've ever seen. A lot of the work is done in-house and some is outsourced to such frame building luminaries such as Moots and IF.

I have my eye on two of them. First, there's the Classic, which they describe as their "tribute to 1970’s racing icons such as Eddy Merckx and Roger De Vlaeminck, bushy sideburns included". Classic geometry, room for wider tires, and a tasteful simplicity evoke the era and region that the bike's inspiration.

The second and perhaps most tempting to me is the Strada Bianca, named for the white dirt roads of Tuscany, home to L'Eroica. The Strada Bianca is Hampsten's "60's era" road bike, one built for even wider tires than it's Classic brother. The bike pictured is shod with Rivendell's 33.3mm Jack Brown's. Beautiful indeed.

4. And speaking of Rivendell, have you ever spent some time at their site? For some, I'm sure Rivendell's a household name, but if it isn't, take a few moments to get aquainted with who they are and what they do. As autumn approaches and your thoughts turn to falling leaves and rougher roads, Rivendell could be a great source for your wide-tire needs. I've already ordered a set of the aformentioned Jack Brown's; look for a review in the future.

5. Last but not least, Here Come the Belgians has a nice post on mueslix. I remember the mueslix our Swiss soigneur used to make at Mercury. When done right, it's a wonderful slurry of oats, fruit, and yogurt--perfect for a long day in the saddle (or team car).

That's it for today. What's on your mind?

Share your comments below.